Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
Research article
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17 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 17 Sep 2020

The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke

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Cited articles

Aschwanden, A., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and Khroulev, C.: Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states, The Cryosphere, 7, 1083–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, 2013. 
Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., and Truffer, M.: Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured, Nat. Commun., 7, 10524, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10524, 2016. 
Bales, R. C., Guo, Q., Shen, D., Mcconnell, J. R., Du, G., Burkhart, J. F., Spikes, V. B., Hanna, E., and Cappelen, J.: Annual accumulation for Greenland updated using ice core data developed during 2000–2006 and analysis of daily coastal meteorological data, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D06116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011208, 2009. 
Barker, S., Knorr, G., Edwards, R. L., Parrenin, F., Putnam, A. E., Skinner, L. C., Wolff, E., and Ziegler, M.: 800,000 Years of Abrupt Climate Variability, Science, 334, 347–351, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203580, 2011. 
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020. 
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Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
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