Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6...
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
17 Sep 2020
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 17 Sep 2020
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
Heiko Goelzer et al.
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56 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- The role of an interactive Greenland ice sheet in the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth-PISM M. Madsen et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06184-6
- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
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- Evaluation of ICEYE Microsatellites Sensor for Surface Motion Detection—Jakobshavn Glacier Case Study M. Łukosz et al. 10.3390/en14123424
- Calving Multiplier Effect Controlled by Melt Undercut Geometry D. Slater et al. 10.1029/2021JF006191
- Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland M. Wood et al. 10.1126/sciadv.aba7282
- Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet H. Yang et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0259816
- A first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet N. Karlsson et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-23739-z
- Complex multi-decadal ice dynamical change inland of marine-terminating glaciers on the Greenland Ice Sheet J. Williams et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.31
- Ocean melting of the Zachariae Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers, northeast Greenland L. An et al. 10.1073/pnas.2015483118
- Elastic deformation plays a non-negligible role in Greenland’s outlet glacier flow J. Christmann et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00296-3
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- Possible impacts of a 1000 km long hypothetical subglacial river valley towards Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland C. Chambers et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3747-2020
- Estuarine tidal range dynamics under rising sea levels D. Khojasteh et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0257538
- Deglacial Ice Sheet Instabilities Induced by Proglacial Lakes A. Quiquet et al. 10.1029/2020GL092141
- Ice dynamics will remain a primary driver of Greenland ice sheet mass loss over the next century Y. Choi et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00092-z
- Nunataks as barriers to ice flow: implications for palaeo ice sheet reconstructions M. Mas e Braga et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021
- Implementation of the RCIP scheme and its performance for 1-D age computations in ice-sheet models F. Saito et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020
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- Impact of the melt–albedo feedback on the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with PISM-dEBM-simple M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021
- Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models F. Boberg et al. 10.5194/tc-16-17-2022
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- A unified model for transient subglacial water pressure and basal sliding V. Tsai et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.103
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers 10.1017/jog.2022.9
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Export of Ice Sheet Meltwater from Upernavik Fjord, West Greenland M. Muilwijk et al. 10.1175/JPO-D-21-0084.1
- Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering X. Fettweis et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021
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- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021
- North Atlantic Footprint of Summer Greenland Ice Sheet Melting on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales: A Greenland Blocking Perspective H. Wang & D. Luo 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0382.1
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- Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century K. Holube et al. 10.5194/tc-16-315-2022
- Seasonal evolution of basal environment conditions of Russell sector, West Greenland, inverted from satellite observation of surface flow A. Derkacheva et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5675-2021
- Sea-Level Rise: From Global Perspectives to Local Services G. Durand et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.709595
- The impact of glaciers on mountain erosion F. Herman et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00165-9
- Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets A. Payne et al. 10.1029/2020GL091741
- Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi‐Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change D. Felikson et al. 10.1029/2021JF006249
- Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections H. Goelzer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020
- Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution D. Slater et al. 10.5194/tc-14-985-2020
- Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
- Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century J. Briner et al. 10.1038/s41586-020-2742-6
52 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Time‐Varying Ice Sheet Mask: Implications on Ice‐Sheet Mass Balance and Crustal Uplift K. Kjeldsen et al. 10.1029/2020JF005775
- Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
- The diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM): a convenient surface mass balance solution for ice sheets in Earth system modeling U. Krebs-Kanzow et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021
- Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model A. Sommers et al. 10.1029/2021PA004272
- Investigating the internal structure of the Antarctic ice sheet: the utility of isochrones for spatiotemporal ice-sheet model calibration J. Sutter et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3839-2021
- Future Projections of Petermann Glacier Under Ocean Warming Depend Strongly on Friction Law H. Åkesson et al. 10.1029/2020JF005921
- The role of an interactive Greenland ice sheet in the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth-PISM M. Madsen et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06184-6
- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
- Assessment of numerical schemes for transient, finite-element ice flow models using ISSM v4.18 T. dos Santos et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-2545-2021
- Evaluation of ICEYE Microsatellites Sensor for Surface Motion Detection—Jakobshavn Glacier Case Study M. Łukosz et al. 10.3390/en14123424
- Calving Multiplier Effect Controlled by Melt Undercut Geometry D. Slater et al. 10.1029/2021JF006191
- Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland M. Wood et al. 10.1126/sciadv.aba7282
- Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet H. Yang et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0259816
- A first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet N. Karlsson et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-23739-z
- Complex multi-decadal ice dynamical change inland of marine-terminating glaciers on the Greenland Ice Sheet J. Williams et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.31
- Ocean melting of the Zachariae Isstrøm and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glaciers, northeast Greenland L. An et al. 10.1073/pnas.2015483118
- Elastic deformation plays a non-negligible role in Greenland’s outlet glacier flow J. Christmann et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00296-3
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- Possible impacts of a 1000 km long hypothetical subglacial river valley towards Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland C. Chambers et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3747-2020
- Estuarine tidal range dynamics under rising sea levels D. Khojasteh et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0257538
- Deglacial Ice Sheet Instabilities Induced by Proglacial Lakes A. Quiquet et al. 10.1029/2020GL092141
- Ice dynamics will remain a primary driver of Greenland ice sheet mass loss over the next century Y. Choi et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00092-z
- Nunataks as barriers to ice flow: implications for palaeo ice sheet reconstructions M. Mas e Braga et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4929-2021
- Implementation of the RCIP scheme and its performance for 1-D age computations in ice-sheet models F. Saito et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5875-2020
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. 10.3390/atmos12121569
- Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations T. Slater et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-26229-4
- A new vertically integrated MOno-Layer Higher-Order (MOLHO) ice flow model T. Dias dos Santos et al. 10.5194/tc-16-179-2022
- Studies on the variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and climate K. Goto-Azuma et al. 10.1016/j.polar.2020.100557
- ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model W. Lipscomb et al. 10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
- Drivers of the evolution and amplitude of African Humid Periods L. Menviel et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00309-1
- Correlations Between Sea‐Level Components Are Driven by Regional Climate Change E. Lambert et al. 10.1029/2020EF001825
- Impact of the melt–albedo feedback on the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with PISM-dEBM-simple M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021
- Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models F. Boberg et al. 10.5194/tc-16-17-2022
- SERMeQ Model Produces a Realistic Upper Bound on Calving Retreat for 155 Greenland Outlet Glaciers L. Ultee & J. Bassis 10.1029/2020GL090213
- A unified model for transient subglacial water pressure and basal sliding V. Tsai et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.103
- Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate R. Greve & C. Chambers 10.1017/jog.2022.9
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Export of Ice Sheet Meltwater from Upernavik Fjord, West Greenland M. Muilwijk et al. 10.1175/JPO-D-21-0084.1
- Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering X. Fettweis et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021
- Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) contribution to ISMIP6 Greenland using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) M. Rückamp et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3309-2020
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021
- North Atlantic Footprint of Summer Greenland Ice Sheet Melting on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales: A Greenland Blocking Perspective H. Wang & D. Luo 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0382.1
- Sea Level Rise and Portfolio Choice E. Ilhan 10.2139/ssrn.3743046
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Description and Demonstration of the Coupled Community Earth System Model v2 – Community Ice Sheet Model v2 (CESM2‐CISM2) L. Muntjewerf et al. 10.1029/2020MS002356
- A comparison of the stability and performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers A. Robinson et al. 10.5194/tc-16-689-2022
- Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century K. Holube et al. 10.5194/tc-16-315-2022
- Seasonal evolution of basal environment conditions of Russell sector, West Greenland, inverted from satellite observation of surface flow A. Derkacheva et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5675-2021
- Sea-Level Rise: From Global Perspectives to Local Services G. Durand et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.709595
- The impact of glaciers on mountain erosion F. Herman et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00165-9
- Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets A. Payne et al. 10.1029/2020GL091741
- Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi‐Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change D. Felikson et al. 10.1029/2021JF006249
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections H. Goelzer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020
- Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution D. Slater et al. 10.5194/tc-14-985-2020
- Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
- Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century J. Briner et al. 10.1038/s41586-020-2742-6
Latest update: 30 Jun 2022
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different...
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