Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
17 Sep 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 17 Sep 2020
| 17 Sep 2020
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels,
Belgium
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Sophie Nowicki
Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Anthony Payne
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical
Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Eric Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
CA 91109, USA
Helene Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
CA 91109, USA
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Jonathan Gregory
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading,
UK
Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo,
Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8564, Japan
Andrew Shepherd
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Erika Simon
Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Cécile Agosta
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Patrick Alexander
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Andy Aschwanden
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Alice Barthel
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Reinhard Calov
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Christopher Chambers
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo,
Japan
Youngmin Choi
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine,
CA 92697, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
CA 91109, USA
Joshua Cuzzone
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine,
CA 92697, USA
Christophe Dumas
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Tamsin Edwards
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
Denis Felikson
Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Xavier Fettweis
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research
unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Nicholas R. Golledge
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New
Zealand
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo,
Japan
Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Angelika Humbert
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und
Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Sebastien Le clec'h
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Victoria Lee
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical
Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Gunter Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Chris Little
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA 02421,
USA
Daniel P. Lowry
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine,
CA 92697, USA
Isabel Nias
Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland,
College Park, MD 20740, USA
Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Aurelien Quiquet
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Martin Rückamp
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und
Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
CA 91109, USA
Donald A. Slater
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San
Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
Robin S. Smith
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading,
UK
Fiamma Straneo
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San
Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
Lev Tarasov
Dept of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of
Newfoundland, Canada
Roderik van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Geosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the
Netherlands
Michiel van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Latest update: 30 Jun 2025
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different...
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