Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
Research article
 | 
07 Dec 2023
Research article |  | 07 Dec 2023

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger

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Cited articles

Albrecht, T. and Levermann, A.: Fracture field for large-scale ice dynamics, J. Glaciol., 58, 165–176, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012JoG11J191, 2012. a
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021. a, b
Bindschadler, R. A., Nowicki, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Aschwanden, A., Choi, H., Fastook, J., Granzow, G., Greve, R., Gutowski, G., Herzfeld, U., Jackson, C., Johnson, J., Khroulev, C., Levermann, A., Lipscomb, W. H., Martin, M. A., Morlighem, M., Parizek, B. R., Pollard, D., Price, S. F., Ren, D., Saito, F., Sato, T., Seddik, H., Seroussi, H., Takahashi, K., Walker, R., and Wang, W. L.: Ice-Sheet Model Sensitivities to Environmental Forcing and Their Use in Projecting Future Sea-Level (The SeaRISE Project), J. Glaciol., 59, 195–224, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125, 2013. a, b, c
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Corani, G., Benavoli, A., and Zaffalon, M.: Time series forecasting with Gaussian Processes needes priors, in: Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases. Applied Dat Science Track: European Conference, ECML PKDD 2021, Bilbao, Spain, 13–17 September 2021, Proceedings, Part IV 21, Springer, 103–117, https://2021.ecmlpkdd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/sub_244.pdf (last access: 29 November 2023), 2021. a
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Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.