Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Dec 2023
Research article |
| 07 Dec 2023
| 07 Dec 2023
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Hélène Seroussi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
Vincent Verjans
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea
Sophie Nowicki
Geology Department and RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Antony J. Payne
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Heiko Goelzer
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
Cécile Agosta
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Torsten Albrecht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Xylar Asay-Davis
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Alice Barthel
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Reinhard Calov
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Richard Cullather
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Christophe Dumas
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Rupert Gladstone
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Nicholas R. Golledge
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
Jonathan M. Gregory
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, iC3: Centre for ice, Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate, Tromsø, Norway
Matthew J. Hoffman
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Angelika Humbert
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Thomas Kleiner
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Eric Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Gunter R. Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Daniel P. Lowry
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Chistopher M. Little
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA, USA
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Tyler Pelle
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
Stephen F. Price
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Aurélien Quiquet
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Ronja Reese
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Andrew Shepherd
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
Erika Simon
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Robin S. Smith
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Fiammetta Straneo
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
Sainan Sun
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
Luke D. Trusel
Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Jonas Van Breedam
Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Peter Van Katwyk
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Chen Zhao
Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Tong Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Thomas Zwinger
CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dynamic subglacial meltwater history archived in Antarctic subglacial lake sediments T. Campbell et al. 10.1130/B37731.1
- The impact of regional-scale upper-mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica E. Lucas et al. 10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025
- Evaluating an accelerated forcing approach for improving computational efficiency in coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling Q. Zhou et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024
- Hidden cascades of seismic ice stream deformation A. Fichtner et al. 10.1126/science.adp8094
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. 10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47369-3
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt S. Jantre et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
- Subglacial water amplifies Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise C. Zhao et al. 10.1038/s41467-025-58375-4
- Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection P. Song et al. 10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0
- Calving rate linearly dependent on sub-aerial terminus cliff height at tidewater glaciers around the Antarctic Peninsula R. Parsons et al. 10.1017/aog.2025.10008
- Seasonal velocity patterns provide insights for the soft-bed subglacial hydrology continuum J. Hart et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02198-0
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to marine ice cliff instability during the 21st century M. Morlighem et al. 10.1126/sciadv.ado7794
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dynamic subglacial meltwater history archived in Antarctic subglacial lake sediments T. Campbell et al. 10.1130/B37731.1
- The impact of regional-scale upper-mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica E. Lucas et al. 10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025
- Evaluating an accelerated forcing approach for improving computational efficiency in coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling Q. Zhou et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024
- Hidden cascades of seismic ice stream deformation A. Fichtner et al. 10.1126/science.adp8094
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. 10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47369-3
- Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) J. De Rydt et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt S. Jantre et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
- Subglacial water amplifies Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise C. Zhao et al. 10.1038/s41467-025-58375-4
- Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection P. Song et al. 10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0
- Calving rate linearly dependent on sub-aerial terminus cliff height at tidewater glaciers around the Antarctic Peninsula R. Parsons et al. 10.1017/aog.2025.10008
- Seasonal velocity patterns provide insights for the soft-bed subglacial hydrology continuum J. Hart et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02198-0
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to marine ice cliff instability during the 21st century M. Morlighem et al. 10.1126/sciadv.ado7794
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
Latest update: 15 Jul 2025
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the...
