Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 19 Apr 2018
| 19 Apr 2018
Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison
Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research
(IMAU), Utrecht, the Netherlands
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels,
Belgium
Sophie Nowicki
NASA GSFC, Cryospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, USA
Tamsin Edwards
School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences, The Open
University, Milton Keynes, UK
now at: King's College London, Department of Geography, London, UK
Matthew Beckley
NASA GSFC, Cryospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, USA
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Atmosphere Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
Andy Aschwanden
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, USA
Reinhard Calov
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Olivier Gagliardini
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble,
France
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble,
France
Nicholas R. Golledge
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington,
Wellington, New Zealand
Jonathan Gregory
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo,
Japan
Angelika Humbert
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven,
Germany
University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Philippe Huybrechts
Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Joseph H. Kennedy
Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak
Ridge, USA
Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Oak Ridge, USA
Eric Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
William H. Lipscomb
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, USA
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
Sébastien Le clec'h
LSCE/IPSL, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Victoria Lee
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Mathieu Morlighem
University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels,
Belgium
Antony J. Payne
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Christian Rodehacke
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven,
Germany
Martin Rückamp
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven,
Germany
Fuyuki Saito
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Nicole Schlegel
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
Helene Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, USA
Andrew Shepherd
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels,
Belgium
Roderik van de Wal
Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research
(IMAU), Utrecht, the Netherlands
Florian A. Ziemen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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David N. Wiese, Johan Nilsson, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Alex S. Gardner, Matthias Ellmer, and Felix W. Landerer
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In June 2024, a destructive flood impacted the village of La Bérarde in the French Alps. Rain, snowmelt, and the drainage of a surface lake on a glacier cannot fully explain the flood magnitude. We used glacier topography to estimate how much water could also have been stored beneath the glacier before the event. Our results show that large volumes of hidden water may have existed and could have amplified the flood, highlighting an overlooked hazard in debris-covered mountain glaciers.
Matt Trevers, Stephen L. Cornford, and Antony J. Payne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4400, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly losing ice to the ocean, and may be vulnerable to irreversible future retreat. We use models to probe their sensitivity to melting of their floating ice shelves and the reduction of friction at the bed. Pine Island is sensitive to ocean melting, while Thwaites is controlled by the reduction of bed friction. Thwaites’ short term behaviour doesn’t depend on ocean melting, presenting challenges in predicting its long term evolution.
Ethan Lee, Jeremy C. Ely, Sarah L. Bradley, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Bethan J. Davies
The Cryosphere, 20, 4209–4233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4209-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4209-2026, 2026
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South American Andean glaciers are the least well known in their futures. We can use numerical models to estimate the change of these glaciers to future climate change. However, options within the numerical model which effect the results are unknown. We vary these selected important options to understand their effect on the numerical model output across the South American Andes. We find that how the model approximates sediment friction, and sliding, to be important on model output.
Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, 2026
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Computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet can project how much it will melt in response to climate change. That depends on the properties of the rock and the water beneath the ice, about which we know very little. That means the amount of sea-level in the future is very uncertain. Techniques to reduce that uncertainty do not always work as well as expected. We must get actual measurements of the bottom of the ice to improve our understanding of the ice sheet, and our knowledge of its future.
Florian Vacek, Faezeh M. Nick, Douglas Benn, Maarten P. A. Zwarts, Walter Immerzeel, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 3827–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3827-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3827-2026, 2026
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We studied a unique glacier in South Greenland that ends in both a lake and the ocean. Using satellite data and field work, we found that the two glacier fronts behave very differently even under the same climate. At the lake glacier we identify a floating ice tongue and we infer little melt below water. The lake glacier experienced a sudden large breakup. Our work suggests that lake and marine glacier fronts must be treated differently in model simulations.
Alexander T. Bradley, David T. Bett, C. Rosie Williams, Robert J. Arthern, Paul R. Holland, James Byrne, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Mira Adhikari
The Cryosphere, 20, 3443–3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026, 2026
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At least since we began measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know precisely how important climate change is in this. Here, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.
Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Sarah L. Greenwood, Mathieu Morlighem, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 20, 3599–3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3599-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3599-2026, 2026
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Computer models used to predict future change of the Greenland Ice Sheet are uncertain, especially in how they represent iceberg calving. We compare several calving approaches by testing model results against satellite observations of changes at three unique floating ice shelves in Greenland. We then extend the simulations to the year 2300 to explore future ice loss, finding that warming of the atmosphere or ocean is more important than the choice of calving method.
Mansa Krishna, Gong Cheng, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 20, 3533–3558, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3533-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3533-2026, 2026
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Estimates of the Greenland Ice Sheet’s contribution to sea level rise are affected by uncertainties in the bed topography. Traditional, physics-based methods for inferring the bed elevation are limited to fast-flowing areas of the ice sheet. We use machine learning models informed with two physical laws to infer the bed elevation for different regions in Greenland, showing that this method can be used to infer the bed elevation in slower-moving, sparsely surveyed regions of the ice sheet.
Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2948, 2026
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Lakes at glacier margins can drain beneath the ice in sudden, devastating, floods called jökulhlaup. We present the first 2D model of jökulhlaup propagation, first applying it to a synthetic glacier, before then assessing its ability to reproduce an observed record of lake fill-drain cycles in Greenland. Our results match a 17-year record of flood timing but underpredicts peak discharge likely because we are missing certain physical processes. Our results hold promise for simulating jökulhlaup.
Daniel Abele, Thomas Kleiner, Yannic Fischler, Benjamin Uekermann, Gerasimos Chourdakis, Mathieu Morlighem, Achim Basermann, Christian Bischof, Hans-Joachim Bungartz, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 5019–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5019-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-5019-2026, 2026
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Accurate simulations of ice-sheet evolution require a multi-physics approach that captures the interaction between glaciers and their subglacial environment. For this purpose, we have extended ice sheet and subglacial hydrology models using a coupling library. This simplifies coupled Earth systems simulations by allowing models to interact with minimal effort and computational expense. We have evaluated the solution regarding performance and choice of coupling library.
Martin Rückamp, Gong Cheng, Karlheinz Gutjahr, Marco Möller, Petri K. E. Pellikka, and Christoph Mayer
The Cryosphere, 20, 2999–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2999-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2999-2026, 2026
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The study simulates the 21st-century evolution of Great Aletsch Glacier and Hintereisferner using full-Stokes ice dynamics and surface mass balance under different emission scenarios. Results show significant ice loss, with Hintereisferner expected to disappear by mid-century. Great Aletsch Glacier vanish by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios, but persist under lower-emission scenarios. These trends agree with large-scale models except some variability.
Lambert Caron, Erik Ivins, Eric Larour, Surendra Adhikari, and Laurent Métivier
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4031–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4031-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4031-2026, 2026
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Presented here is a new model of the solid-Earth response to tides and mass changes in ice sheets, oceans, and groundwater, in of terms of gravity change and bedrock motion. The model is capable simulating mantle deformation including elasticity, transient and steady-state viscous flow. We detail our approach to numerical optimization, and report the accuracy of results with respect to community benchmarks. The resulting coupled system features kilometer-scale resolution and fast computation.
James R. Jordan, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Abele, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jowan M. Barnes, Tijn Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Javier Blasco, Gong Cheng, Youngmin Choi, Stephen L. Cornford, Cruz Garcia-Molina, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Angelika Humbert, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Marisa Montoya, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Mathieu Morlighem, Tyler Pelle, Alexander Robinson, Martin Rückamp, Hélène Seroussi, Yanmei Tian, Luisa Wagner, Roderick S. W. van de Wal, Liyun Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1962, 2026
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Ice calving is a recent inclusion in ice sheet models and there has not been a systematic test of how well it has been implemented. We show that models can accurately represent a given rate of ice calving, properties at the ice front evolve smoothly during calving, and that there are no consistent differences in ice behaviour between various approaches to representing calving in numerical ice models. This gives us confidence in their ability for use in sea level rise prediction simulations.
Jean-Francois Lemieux, Damien Ringeisen, Martin Losch, William Lipscomb, and Jinro Ukita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1362, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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The sea ice cover in the Arctic and in the Southern Ocean strongly varies spatially due to the formation of leads and pressure ridges. Leads and pressure ridges are formed when sea ice fails because forces inside the ice cover reach critical values. This work describes how the representation of leads and ridges in sea ice models should be modified when different critical forces are used.
Megan C. James, Tamsin L. Edwards, Tom Matthews, Alexander T. Bradley, James F. O'Neill, and Harry Zekollari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2069, 2026
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As the climate warms, glaciers are shrinking, contributing to sea-level rise, natural hazards and water insecurity. We show for one case study – the very long-term response of Iceland’s glaciers to global warming – that large uncertainties arise from the poorly known parameters within models. This is usually overlooked, but we show neglecting it underestimates uncertainty in our glacier model by as much as 90 %, highlighting the importance of accounting for it in future glacier projections.
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 475–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, 2026
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There is a dangerous amount of uncertainty in our predictions of climate change in polar regions because some of feedbacks that might lead to changes that are too rapid for us to adapt to, or that cannot be reversed. We have run a set of simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model that helps improve our understanding of how climate in these regions might change. Some of the aspects we investigate are reversible but many are not, especially those affecting ice sheets and sea level.
Theresa Dobler, Wilfried Hagg, Martin Rückamp, Thorsten Seehaus, and Christoph Mayer
The Cryosphere, 20, 2531–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2531-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2531-2026, 2026
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We studied how a glacier in the Austrian Alps moves more slowly over time due to climate change. By combining long-term field data with recent aerial images, we show how thinning reduce glacier flow. Our findings help understand changes in glacier behavior in a warming climate.
Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Tobias Binder, Uwe Nixdorf, Heinrich Miller, Angelika Humbert, Daniela Jansen, Graeme Eagles, Hannes Eisermann, Wilfried Jokat, Antonia Ruppel, Reinhard Drews, Alexandra Zuhr, Amelie Driemel, Andreas Walter, Peter Konopatzky, Robin Heß, Antonie Haas, Roland Koppe, Pascal H. Andreas, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 20, 2485–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2485-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2485-2026, 2026
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This review synthesizes 30 years of Alfred Wegener Institute’s (AWI) airborne radar research in Antarctica and Greenland, detailing six radar systems and their applications in studying ice dynamics, basal properties, and subglacial landscapes. Moreover, it introduces the public release of AWI's airborne radar datasets via the Radar Data over Polar Ice Sheets Viewer and PANGAEA, ensuring findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable access for future polar research.
Nozomi Arima, Masakazu Yoshimori, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Wing-Le Chan, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, and Tomoo Ogura
Clim. Past, 22, 891–913, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-891-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-891-2026, 2026
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During the Last Interglacial period, spanning 129 000 to 116 000 years ago, the Arctic was considered warmer than during the preindustrial period. Many climate models do not simulate an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer, as suggested by recent reconstructions. Here, we examine the importance of how the liquid or solid phase of cloud particles is determined in models. It is found that the representation of cloud phase indeed has a substantial impact on the simulation of summer sea ice cover.
Yue Li, Gang Tang, Eleanor O'Rourke, Samar Minallah, Martim Mas e Braga, Sophie Nowicki, Robin S. Smith, David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Daniele Peano, Gesa Meyer, Birgit Hassler, Jiafu Mao, Yongkang Xue, and Martin Juckes
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3129–3155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026, 2026
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Land and Land Ice Theme Opportunities describe a list that contains 25 variable groups with 716 variables, which are potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land–atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology.
Takashi Obase, Takanori Kodama, Takao Kawasaki, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Daisuke Takasuka, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Masakazu Fujii
Clim. Past, 22, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-845-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-845-2026, 2026
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In the past, Earth might have experienced its surface completely covered with ice. Using an atmosphere-ocean climate model, we examined the evolution in the ocean circulation from modern to the snowball Earth. We found that the deep ocean ocean circulation experienced drastic weakening before the snowball onset by salinity changes, and after that the ocean circulation resumed. The ocean circulation changes have implications for understanding climate system feedback on the past snowball events.
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Jenni Kontkanen, Irina Sandu, Mario Acosta, Mohammed Hussam Al Turjmam, Ivan Alsina-Ferrer, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Costanza Anerdi, Leo Arriola, Marvin Axness, Marc Batlle Martín, Peter Bauer, Tobias Becker, Daniel Beltrán, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Sebastien Cabaniols, Silvia Caprioli, Miguel Castrillo, Aparna Chandrasekar, Suvarchal Cheedela, Victor Correal, Emanuele Danovaro, Paolo Davini, Jussi Enkovaara, Claudia Frauen, Barbara Früh, Aina Gaya Àvila, Paolo Ghinassi, Rohit Ghosh, Supriyo Ghosh, Iker González, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Ioan Hadade, Christopher Haine, Carl Hartick, Utz-Uwe Haus, Shane Hearne, Heikki Järvinen, Bernat Jiménez, Amal John, Marlin Juchem, Thomas Jung, Jessica Kegel, Matthias Kelbling, Kai Keller, Bruno Kinoshita, Theresa Kiszler, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Joonas Kolstela, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Aleksander Lacima-Nadolnik, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, Jonni Lehtiranta, Tuomas Lunttila, Anna Luoma, Pekka Manninen, Alexey Medvedev, Sebastian Milinski, Ali Mohammed, Sebastian Müller, Devaraju Naryanappa, Natalia Nazarova, Sami Niemelä, Bimochan Niraula, Henrik Nortamo, Aleksi Nummelin, Matteo Nurisso, Pablo Ortega, Stella Paronuzzi, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Charles Pelletier, Carlos Peña, Suraj Polade, Himansu Kesari Pradhan, Rommel Quintanilla, Tiago Quintino, Thomas Rackow, Jouni Räisänen, Maqsood Mubarak Rajput, René Redler, Balthasar Reuter, Nuno Rocha Monteiro, Francesc Roura-Adserias, Silva Ruppert, Susan Sayed, Reiner Schnur, Tanvi Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Outi Sievi-Korte, Albert Soret, Christian Steger, Bjorn Stevens, Jan Streffing, Jaleena Sunny, Luiggi Tenorio, Stephan Thober, Ulf Tigerstedt, Oriol Tinto, Juha Tonttila, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Lauri Tuppi, Ginka Van Thielen, Emanuele Vitali, Jost von Hardenberg, Ingo Wagner, Nils Wedi, Jan Wehner, Sven Willner, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Florian Ziemen, and Janos Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2821–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026, 2026
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The Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) pioneers the operationalisation of global climate projections. It produces global simulations with local granularity for adaptation decision-making. Applications are embedded to generate tailored indicators. A unified workflow orchestrates all components in several supercomputers. Data management ensures consistency and streaming enables real-time use. It is a complementary innovation to initiatives like CMIP, CORDEX, and climate services.
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
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This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Pierre Mathiot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Benoit Urruty, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Olivier Gagliardini, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, 2026
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How the Antarctic ice sheet responds to rapid ocean warming remains uncertain. To explore this, we used a coupled ocean–ice sheet model. We compared simulations under present-day conditions with simulations under strong future warming for 50 years, then returned to today’s climate. The ocean warmed quickly but recovered within decades. In contrast, several ice streams continued to retreat for centuries. This shows that even brief warming could cause lasting ice loss and sea-level rise.
Julien Brondex, Olivier Gagliardini, Adrien Gilbert, and Emmanuel Thibert
The Cryosphere, 20, 1655–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1655-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1655-2026, 2026
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We investigate crevasse initiation by analyzing the artificial drainage of a water-filled cavity at Tête Rousse Glacier (Mont Blanc, France). Using a numerical model, we compute stress fields in response to water level variations in the cavity and compare them to observed crevasse patterns. Results show that a non-linear viscous rheology and a maximum principal stress criterion (with a stress threshold of 100–130 kPa) best predict crevasse occurrence.
Daniel Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1151, 2026
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During the Early Pleistocene, glacial cycles closely follow Earth’s obliquity, even though summer insolation is strongly modulated by precession. Sensitivity experiments with a zonally averaged energy balance model show a pronounced obliquity cycle in polar temperatures. This arises from obliquity control on winter sea ice, which regulates ocean heat release, while precession has a weaker effect on sea ice and temperature.
Andrew Nolan, Gwenn E. Flowers, Andy Aschwanden, and Adrien Gilbert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-913, 2026
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We used a computer model to study the effects of glacier "surges", or unusual fast-flow events, on the distribution of ice temperature in a glacier. The purpose of the study was to examine feedbacks that might influence the form and flow of these glaciers in a stable climate. We found surging glaciers to be smaller and colder than their ordinary counterparts, while strong regular surges induced an oscillation in glacier temperature and flow speed much longer than the interval between surges.
Simon Filhol, Clément Misset, Noélie Bontemps, Diego Cusicanqui, Emmanuel Paquet, Marie Dumont, Olivier Gagliardini, Pascal Lacroix, Simon Gascoin, Guillaume Thirel, Julien Brondex, Pascal Hagenmuller, Eric Larose, Philipp Schoeneich, Denis Roy, Emmanuel Thibert, Nicolas Eckert, Félix de Montety, Robin Mainieri, Alexandre Hauet, Frédéric Gottardi, Johan Berthet, Alexandre Baratier, Frédéric Liébault, Małgorzata Chmiel, Guillaume Piton, Guillaume Chambon, Guillaume James, Philippe Frey, Philip Deline, Laurent Astrade, Christian Vincent, Dominique Laigle, Alain Recking, Fatima Karbou, Adrien Mauss, Mylène Bonnefoy-Demongeot, Firmin Fontaine, Mickael Langlais, Etienne Berthier, and Antoine Blanc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971, 2026
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On June 21 2024, the village of La Bérarde, in the French Alps, was devastated by a flood destroying centuries old buildings. This study is an interdisciplinary work to decipher the causes and chronology of the event. The flood started with decadal rain falling on a thick snowpack. A lake observed on top of a glacier few days prior, had drained post event. With climate change, should we expect more similar compound events for alpine communities?
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 1405–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026, 2026
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently thinning, especially at major outlet glaciers. Including present-day ice thinning rates in models is a modeller's choice and can affect future projections. This study quantifies the impact of current imbalance on forced future projections, revealing strong regional and short-term (up to 2100) effects when these mass change rates are included.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 1217–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026, 2026
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Ice sheet models to simulate future sea level rise require parameterizations, like for the friction at the bedrock. Studies have quantified the effect of using different parameterizations, and some have concluded that projections are sensitive to the choice of the specific parameterization. In this study, we show that you can make an ice sheet model sensitive to the basal friction parameterization, and that for different modellers choices you can also make the model insensitive to this.
Ankit Pramanik, Sarah L. Greenwood, Mathieu Morlighem, Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Richard Gyllencreutz, and Carl Regnéll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-172, 2026
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Ice sheet/glacier retreat is driving expansion of glacial lakes impounded at the ice margin. Using an ice sheet model, we find that lake filling and drainage causes systematic changes to glacier thickness, velocity and mass loss. Rising lake levels dramatically increase mass loss as the ice margin becomes buoyant, while rapid lake drainage can drive crevassing and destabilise the margin. Steady lake drainage, in contrast, has a stabilising effect, and may mitigate mass loss and flood hazards.
Jowan M. Barnes, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Daniel N. Goldberg, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 20, 777–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-777-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-777-2026, 2026
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Calving is where ice breaks off the front of glaciers. It has not been included widely in modelling as it is difficult to represent. We use our ice flow model to investigate the effects of calving floating ice shelves in West Antarctica. More calving leads to more ice loss and greater sea level rise, with local differences due to the shape of the bedrock. We find that ocean forcing and calving should be considered equally when trying to improve how models represent the real world.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 757–775, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026, 2026
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The bedrock deformation in response to a melting ice sheet provides significant negative feedback on Antarctic ice mass loss in the next 500 years. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models. Our results show that projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to sea-level rise using an ice sheet - 3D GIA (glacial isostatic adjustment) model can be approximated using a laterally varying ELRA (elastic lithosphere, relaxed asthenosphere) model or a 1D GIA model when the recommended parameters are used.
Alessandro Cotronei, Ulrike Feudel, and Angelika Humbert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334, 2026
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We construct a mathematical model to describe the formation of lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet across multiple years. The model represents the dynamics of ice, snow, and surface water, accounting for the influence of air temperature. Our results indicate that lakes can enhance ice melt by absorbing sunlight, thereby accelerating the loss of Greenland ice under realistic scenarios of temperature increase.
Chloë Marie Paice, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 20, 309–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, 2026
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To study Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere interactions, we coupled an ice sheet model to a regional climate model and performed simulations of differing coupling complexity over 1000 years under a high-warming climate scenario. They reveal that at first melt at the ice sheet margin is reduced by changing wind patterns. But over time, as the ice sheet melts and its surface lowers, precipitation patterns and cloudiness also change and amplify ice mass loss over the entire ice sheet.
Yite Chien, Chunxia Zhou, Sainan Sun, Yiming Chen, Tao Wang, and Baojun Zhang
The Cryosphere, 20, 245–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-245-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-245-2026, 2026
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Our research examines how temporary contact between floating ice shelves and the seafloor affects ice flow and stability. Analyzing satellite data from 2014 to 2023, we found that tidal forces, ice thickness, and underwater terrain influence grounding events at Pine Island Ice Shelf. These events may have triggered rifts that led to the 2020 iceberg breakoff. Our study emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring to better predict future changes in Antarctica’s vulnerable ice regions.
Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 57–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026, 2026
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We add a new dynamic component – an ice sheet model simulating the Greenland ice sheet – to an Earth system model that already captures the global climate evolution including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. Under a strong warming scenario, the global warming of 10°C over 250 years is dominating the climate evolution. Changes from the ice-climate interaction are mainly local yet impacting the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet. Hence, ice-climate feedbacks should be considered beyond 2100.
Andreas Colliander, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Alamgir Hossan, Catherine Walker, and Joel Harper
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5953, 2026
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We studied how melting on an Antarctic ice shelf changes the snow and ice below the surface. By combining satellite microwave measurements with a detailed computer model, we show that meltwater can travel deeper and stay longer than models usually predict. This approach makes it possible to better track hidden melt and improve future estimates of ice loss and sea-level change.
Thomas Chauve, Florent Gimbert, Adrien Gilbert, Olivier Gagliardini, Luc Piard, Arnaud Reboud, Olivier Laarman, Paolo Perret, William Boffelli, Pietro Di Sopra, Luca Mondardini, and Fabrizio Troilo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5714, 2025
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A field campaign on the Planpincieux Glacier investigated how hidden heterogeneities inside the ice affect its deformation. A borehole logged with optical and acoustic tools and equipped with tilt sensors revealed that these heterogeneities cause strong deformation localization. Such weak zones significantly influence glacier motion, showing that internal structure is key to understanding how glaciers flow.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
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We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
The Cryosphere, 19, 6507–6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, 2025
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Quantifying melt and freeze beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves is vital to understanding present-day ice-sheet behavior and its potential to contribute to future sea-level rise. We compare 10 ice-shelf/ocean computer simulations with satellite data, providing the first multi-model estimate of melting and refreezing driven by the ocean. This new estimate offers a valuable tool for assessing ice-shelf roles in current and future ice-sheet changes, informing coastal adaptation strategies.
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 19, 6403–6419, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6403-2025, 2025
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We present a method to better simulate how Greenland’s ice sheet may change over thousands of years in response to climate change. Using a stand-alone ice sheet model, we adjust snowfall and melting patterns based on changes in the ice sheet’s shape. This approach avoids complex coupled models and enables faster testing of many future scenarios to understand the long-term stability of Greenland’s ice.
Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin L. Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 6421–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025, 2025
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Developing robust protocols to design multi-model ensembles is of primary importance for the uncertainty quantification of sea level projections. Here, we set up a series of computer experiments to reflect design decisions for the prediction of future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet in 2100. We show the importance of including the most extreme climate scenario and the implications of using a single type of numerical model for ice sheets or regional climate.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4914, 2025
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We developed ISEFlow, a new climate emulator model that predicts how melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to future sea levels. Unlike past tools, it uses advanced machine learning to capture complex ice processes, distinguish between different greenhouse gas scenarios, and provide clearer estimates of uncertainty. This makes sea level projections more accurate and reliable, helping scientists and policymakers better plan for climate risks.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Lauren Andrews, Jana Kolassa, Julie Z. Miller, and Richard Cullather
The Cryosphere, 19, 6077–6102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6077-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6077-2025, 2025
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Microwave L-band radiometry offers a promising new tool for estimating the total surface-to-subsurface liquid water amount (LWA) in the snow and firn in polar ice sheets. An accurate modelling of wet snow effective permittivity is a key to this. Here, we evaluated the performance of ten commonly used microwave dielectric mixing models for estimating LWA in the percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet to help an appropriate choice of dielectric mixing model for LWA retrieval algorithms.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4593–4612, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, 2025
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, storm surges that are rarer are given a higher weight than moderate storm surges. Additionally, we found that the performance of some of the neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the future application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
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The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Heiko Goelzer, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, Stefan Hofer, Konstanze Haubner, Michele Petrini, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7853–7867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7853-2025, 2025
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On the backdrop of observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss over the last few decades, there is growing interest in the role of ice sheet changes in global climate projections. In this regard, we have coupled an Earth system model with an ice sheet model and have produced an initial set of climate projections including an interactive coupling with a dynamic Greenland ice sheet.
Benjamin Reynolds, Sophie Nowicki, and Kristin Poinar
The Cryosphere, 19, 5045–5073, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5045-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5045-2025, 2025
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Stress in glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves causes crevasses, which are important drivers of retreat and sea level rise. We find that different assumptions found in the literature lead to significantly (up to a factor of 2) different crevasse depths and recommend a calculation based on observed ice flow patterns. We find that other stress calculations likely overpredict ice shelf vulnerability to hydrofracture.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7735–7761, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7735-2025, 2025
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The Next Generation of Earth Modeling Systems project (nextGEMS) developed two Earth system models that use horizontal grid spacing of 10 km and finer, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS simulated the Earth System climate over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025
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The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth System Model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty found on the Atlantic side.
Yanjun Li, Violaine Coulon, Javier Blasco, Gang Qiao, Qinghua Yang, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 19, 4373–4390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025, 2025
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We incorporate ice damage processes into an ice-sheet model and apply the new model to Thwaites Glacier. The upgraded model more accurately captures the observed ice mass loss of Thwaites Glacier over 1990–2020. Our simulations show that ice damage has a notable impact on the ice mass loss, grounding-line retreat, ice velocity, and ice thickness of the Thwaites Glacier basin. This study highlights the necessity for incorporating ice damage into ice-sheet models.
Joseph P. Tulenko, Sophie A. Goliber, Renette Jones-Ivey, Justin Quinn, Abani Patra, Kristin Poinar, Sophie Nowicki, Beata M. Csatho, and Jason P. Briner
The Cryosphere, 19, 4327–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, 2025
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Ghub is an online platform that hosts tools, datasets, and educational resources related to ice sheet science. These resources are provided by ice sheet researchers and allow other researchers, students, educators, and interested members of the general public to analyze, visualize, and download datasets that researchers use to study past and present ice sheet behavior. We describe how users can interact with Ghub, showcase some available resources, and describe the future of the Ghub project.
Luc Houriez, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Surendra Adhikari, Erik Ivins, Tyler Pelle, Hélène Seroussi, Eric Darve, and Martin Fischer
The Cryosphere, 19, 4355–4372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025, 2025
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This work examines how interactions between the ice sheet and the Earth’s evolving surface affect the future of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. We find that small features in the bedrock play a major role in these interactions which can delay the glacier’s retreat by decades or even centuries. This can significantly reduce sea-level rise projections. Our study highlights resolution requirements for similar ice–earth models and the importance of bedrock mapping efforts in Antarctica.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Shawn Marshall, and Julie Z. Miller
The Cryosphere, 19, 4237–4258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4237-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4237-2025, 2025
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We used L-band observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to quantify the surface and subsurface liquid water amounts (LWAs) in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. The algorithm is described, and the validation results are provided. The results demonstrate the potential for creating an LWA data product across the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), which will advance our understanding of ice sheet physical processes for better projection of Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise.
Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen, Henriette Skourup, Eero Rinne, Arttu Jutila, Isobel R. Lawrence, Andrew Shepherd, Knut Vilhelm Høyland, Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Sebastian Bjerregaaard Simonsen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Gaelle Veyssiere, Donghui Yi, René Forsberg, and Taniâ Gil Duarte Casal
The Cryosphere, 19, 4167–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4167-2025, 2025
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An airborne campaign collected unprecedented coincident multi-frequency radar and lidar data over sea ice along a CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 (CRYO2ICE) orbit in the Weddell Sea, useful for evaluating microwave snow penetration. Ka-band and Ku-band had limited penetration with significant contributions from the air–snow interface, contradicting traditional assumptions with discrepancies between commonly used C/S-band "snow-radar" methodologies, all challenging comparisons of airborne and spaceborne estimates.
Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen, Henriette Skourup, Eero Rinne, Arttu Jutila, Isobel R. Lawrence, Andrew Shepherd, Knut Vilhelm Høyland, Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Sebastian Bjerregaaard Simonsen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Gaelle Veyssiere, Donghui Yi, René Forsberg, and Taniâ Gil Duarte Casal
The Cryosphere, 19, 4193–4209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4193-2025, 2025
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An airborne campaign collected unprecedented coincident multi-frequency radar and lidar data over sea ice along a CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 (CRYO2ICE) orbit in the Weddell Sea, useful for evaluating microwave snow penetration. Ka-band and Ku-band had limited penetration with significant contributions from the air–snow interface, contradicting traditional assumptions with discrepancies between commonly used C/S-band "snow-radar" methodologies, all challenging comparisons of airborne and spaceborne estimates.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, 2025
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We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackermann, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
The Cryosphere, 19, 3749–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3749-2025, 2025
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This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland ice sheet over the next 20–30 years but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Jamie Barnett, Felicity A. Holmes, Joshua Cuzzone, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Matt O'Regan, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 3631–3653, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3631-2025, 2025
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Understanding how ice sheets have changed in the past can allow us to make better predictions for the future. By running a state-of-the-art model of Ryder Glacier, North Greenland, over the past 12 000 years we find that both a warming atmosphere and the ocean play a key role in the evolution of the glacier. Our conclusions stress that accurately quantifying the ice sheet’s interactions with the ocean is required to predict future changes and reliable sea level rise estimates.
Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Joseph H. Kennedy, Mark A. Fahnestock, Maria Liukis, Luis A. López, Yang Lei, Ted A. Scambos, and Amaury Dehecq
The Cryosphere, 19, 3517–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3517-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3517-2025, 2025
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The NASA MEaSUREs Inter-mission Time Series of Land Ice Velocity and Elevation (ITS_LIVE) project provides glacier and ice sheet velocity products for the full Landsat, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2 satellite archives and will soon include data from the NISAR satellite. This paper describes the ITS_LIVE processing chain and gives guidance for working with the cloud-optimized glacier and ice sheet velocity products.
Samar Minallah, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter Leguy, and Harry Zekollari
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5467–5486, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5467-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5467-2025, 2025
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We developed a new modeling framework within an Earth system model to study mountain glacier evolution under different climate scenarios, applied here to the European Alps. Substantial Alpine glacier mass loss is projected under current climate conditions, with near-total loss under further warming. This is the first use of a 3D, higher-order ice-flow model for regional glacier simulations, enabling assessment of coupled land ice–Earth system processes.
Gong Cheng, Mansa Krishna, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5311–5327, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5311-2025, 2025
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Predicting ice sheet contributions to sea level rise is challenging due to limited data and uncertainties in key processes. Traditional models require complex methods that lack flexibility. We developed PINNICLE (Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Ice and CLimatE), an open-source Python library that integrates machine learning with physical laws to improve ice sheet modeling. By combining data and physics, PINNICLE enhances predictions and adaptability, providing a powerful tool for climate research and sea level rise projections.
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
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We simulated the Antarctic climate from 1985 to 2014. Our model is driven using the ERA-5 reanalysis for one simulation and the EC-Earth global climate model for three others. Most of the simulated trends, such as sea ice extent and precipitation over land, have opposite signs for the two drivers, but agree between the three EC-Earth driven simulations. We conclude that these opposing trends must be due to the different drivers, and that the climate over land is less predictable than over sea.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Ole Zeising, Niklas Neckel, Matthias H. Braun, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Martin Rückamp, Holger Steeb, Julia Sohn, Matthias Bohnen, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 19, 3009–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3009-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3009-2025, 2025
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We study the evolution of a massive lake on the Greenland Ice Sheet using satellite and airborne data and some modelling. The lake is emptying rapidly. Water flows to the glacier's base through cracks and triangular-shaped moulins that remain visible over the years. Some of them become reactivated. We find features inside the glacier that stem from drainage events with a width of even 1 km. These features are persistent over the years, although they are changing in shape.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul J. Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past, 21, 1443–1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1443-2025, 2025
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving high-southern-latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 and AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) changes are the primary drivers of the warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The analysis highlights the model's sensitivity of CO2 and AMOC to meltwater and the meltwater history of temperature changes at high southern latitudes.
Ole Zeising, Tore Hattermann, Lars Kaleschke, Sophie Berger, Olaf Boebel, Reinhard Drews, M. Reza Ershadi, Tanja Fromm, Frank Pattyn, Daniel Steinhage, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 19, 2837–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025, 2025
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Basal melting of ice shelves impacts the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study focuses on the Ekström Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, using multiyear data from an autonomous radar system. Results show a surprising seasonal pattern of high melt rates in winter and spring. The seasonalities of sea-ice growth and ocean density indicate that, in winter, dense water enhances plume activity and melt rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving future mass balance projections.
Felicity A. Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2695–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2695-2025, 2025
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Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades, in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low- and a high-emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high-emissions future lead to a sea level rise contribution that is an order of magnitude higher than under a low-emissions future.
Katrina Lutz, Ilaria Tabone, Angelika Humbert, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 19, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2601-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2601-2025, 2025
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Supraglacial lakes develop from meltwater collecting on the surface of glaciers. These lakes can drain rapidly, discharging meltwater to the glacier bed. In this study, we assess the spatial and temporal distribution of rapid drainages in Northeast Greenland using optical satellite images. After comparing rapid drainage occurrence with several environmental and geophysical parameters, little indication of the influencing conditions for a rapid drainage was found.
Younghyun Koo, Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and Maryam Rahnemoonfar
The Cryosphere, 19, 2583–2599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2583-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2583-2025, 2025
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Calving, the breaking of ice bodies from the terminus of a glacier, plays an important role in the mass losses of Greenland ice sheets. However, calving parameters have been poorly understood because of the intensive computational demands of traditional numerical models. To address this issue and find the optimal calving parameter that best represents real observations, we develop deep-learning emulators based on graph neural network architectures.
Davor Dundovic, Joseph G. Wallwork, Stephan C. Kramer, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Regine Hock, and Matthew D. Piggott
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4023–4044, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4023-2025, 2025
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Accurate numerical studies of glaciers often require high-resolution simulations, which often prove too demanding even for modern computers. In this paper we develop a method that identifies whether different parts of a glacier require high or low resolution based on its physical features, such as its thickness and velocity. We show that by doing so we can achieve a more optimal simulation accuracy for the available computing resources compared to uniform-resolution simulations.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Mark A. Fahnestock, John D. Paden, Jilu Li, Jeremy P. Harbeck, and Andy Aschwanden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2911–2931, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2911-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2911-2025, 2025
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This paper describes the second version of a deep radiostratigraphic database for the Greenland Ice Sheet. It includes numerous improvements to the original database from 2015 and includes newer high-quality radar sounding data from 2014–2019. It represents a unique and widespread constraint on the history of the ice sheet that could be helpful to initialize and interpret ice-sheet models.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 21, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, 2025
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Glacial cycle duration changed from 41 000 to 100 000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation and simple ice–climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate for warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Lea-Sophie Höyns, Thomas Kleiner, Andreas Rademacher, Martin Rückamp, Michael Wolovick, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 19, 2133–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2133-2025, 2025
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The sliding of glaciers over bedrock is influenced by water pressure in the underlying hydrological system and the roughness of the land underneath the glacier. We estimate this roughness through a modeling approach that optimizes this unknown parameter. Additionally, we simulate water pressure, enhancing the reliability of the computed drag at the ice sheet base. The resulting data are provided to other modelers and scientists conducting geophysical field observations.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Peter U. Clark, Jeremy D. Shakun, Yair Rosenthal, Chenyu Zhu, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jonathan M. Gregory, Peter Köhler, Zhengyu Liu, and Daniel P. Schrag
Clim. Past, 21, 973–1000, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-973-2025, 2025
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We reconstruct changes in mean ocean temperature (ΔMOT) over the last 4.5 Myr. We find that the ratio of ΔMOT to changes in global mean sea surface temperature was around 0.5 before the Middle Pleistocene transition but was 1 thereafter. We subtract our ΔMOT reconstruction from the global δ18O record to derive the δ18O of seawater. Finally, we develop a theoretical understanding of why the ratio of ΔMOT / ΔGMSST changed over the Plio-Pleistocene.
Jing Jin, Antony J. Payne, and Christopher Y. S. Bull
The Cryosphere, 19, 1873–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1873-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1873-2025, 2025
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The Amery Ice Shelf cavity is one of the largest cold cavities filled by relatively cold Dense Shelf Water. However, in this study, we show that warm intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water flushes the Amery cavity, which changes it from a cold cavity to a warm cavity and leads to an abrupt increase in the basal melt rate in the 2060s. The shift to a warm cavity is attributed to a freshening-driven current reversal in front of the ice shelf.
Torsten Kanzow, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Mölg, Mirko Scheinert, Matthias Braun, Hans Burchard, Francesca Doglioni, Philipp Hochreuther, Martin Horwath, Oliver Huhn, Maria Kappelsberger, Jürgen Kusche, Erik Loebel, Katrina Lutz, Ben Marzeion, Rebecca McPherson, Mahdi Mohammadi-Aragh, Marco Möller, Carolyne Pickler, Markus Reinert, Monika Rhein, Martin Rückamp, Janin Schaffer, Muhammad Shafeeque, Sophie Stolzenberger, Ralph Timmermann, Jenny Turton, Claudia Wekerle, and Ole Zeising
The Cryosphere, 19, 1789–1824, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1789-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1789-2025, 2025
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The Greenland Ice Sheet represents the second-largest contributor to global sea-level rise. We quantify atmosphere, ice and ocean processes related to the mass balance of glaciers in northeast Greenland, focusing on Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue, the 79° N Glacier. We find that together, the different in situ and remote sensing observations and model simulations reveal a consistent picture of a coupled atmosphere–ice sheet–ocean system that has entered a phase of major change.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
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Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Aaron Barth, Kelsey Barker, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 19, 1559–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1559-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1559-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum conditions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) across the northeastern United States. A complex thermal history existed for the LIS that caused high erosion across most of the NE USA but prevented erosion across high-elevation mountain peaks and areas where ice flow was slow. This has implications for geologic studies which rely on the erosional nature of the LIS to reconstruct its glacial history and landscape evolution.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Clemens Schannwell, Katharina D. Six, Florian A. Ziemen, Meike Bagge, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Olga Erokhina, Veronika Gayler, Volker Klemann, Virna L. Meccia, Anne Mouchet, and Thomas Riddick
Clim. Past, 21, 719–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-719-2025, 2025
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A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet–solid-earth model was applied to simulate the time from the Last Glacial Maximum (about 25 000 years before the present) to the pre-industrial period. The model simulations are compared to observational estimates. During this climate transition, the model simulates several abrupt changes in the North Atlantic region, which are initiated by different processes. The underlying mechanisms are analysed and described.
Amy E. Swiggs, Isobel R. Lawrence, and Andrew Shepherd
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-693, 2025
Preprint withdrawn
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We produce a new sea ice concentration product in the Canadian Arctic. This region is vital for shipping, sea ice dependent species, and the movement of sea ice and freshwater. We find that the new dataset agrees well with existing sensors. As it is sensitive to leads, it can detect fine-scale sea ice features, and generally resolves a lower sea ice concentration for this reason. This different approach is important for monitoring sea ice dynamics in a changing climate.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, 2025
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We present ISEFlow, a machine learning emulator that predicts how the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will contribute to sea level. ISEFlow is fast and accurate, allowing scientists to explore different climate scenarios with greater confidence. ISEFlow distinguishes between high and low emissions scenarios, helping us understand how today’s choices impact future sea levels. ISEFlow supports more reliable climate predictions and helps scientists study the future of ice sheets.
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 19, 1205–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, 2025
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Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet significantly contributes to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities globally. To improve future sea-level projections, we simulated ice sheet behavior until 2100, initializing the model with observed geometry and using various climate models. Predictions indicate a sea-level rise of 32 to 228 mm by 2100, with climate model uncertainty being the main source of variability in projections.
William H. Lipscomb, David Behar, and Monica Ainhorn Morrison
The Cryosphere, 19, 793–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025, 2025
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As communities try to adapt to climate change, they look for "actionable science" that can inform decision-making. There are risks in relying on novel results that are not yet accepted by the science community. We propose a practical criterion for determining which scientific claims are actionable. We show how premature acceptance of sea-level-rise predictions can lead to confusion and backtracking, and we suggest best practices for communication between scientists and adaptation planners.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 545–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, 2025
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In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a dataset of 712 Holocene water level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Juan-Pedro Roldán-Blasco, Adrien Gilbert, Luc Piard, Florent Gimbert, Christian Vincent, Olivier Gagliardini, Anuar Togaibekov, Andrea Walpersdorf, and Nathan Maier
The Cryosphere, 19, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-267-2025, 2025
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The flow of glaciers and ice sheets results from ice deformation and basal sliding driven by gravitational forces. Quantifying the rate at which ice deforms under its own weight is critical for assessing glacier evolution. This study uses borehole instrumentation in an Alpine glacier to quantify ice deformation and constrain ice viscosity in a natural setting. Our results show that the viscosity of ice at 0 °C is largely influenced by interstitial liquid water, which enhances ice deformation.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Mathieu Morlighem, Huw Horgan, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
The Cryosphere, 19, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, 2025
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
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Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
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We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
The Cryosphere, 18, 5789–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, 2024
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In 2022, multi-year landfast sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the fast ice was joined to the glacier terminus, it could provide resistance against the glacier's flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the fast ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot
The Cryosphere, 18, 5519–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, 2024
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Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
Katrina Lutz, Lily Bever, Christian Sommer, Thorsten Seehaus, Angelika Humbert, Mirko Scheinert, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 18, 5431–5449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5431-2024, 2024
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The estimation of the amount of water found within supraglacial lakes is important for understanding how much water is lost from glaciers each year. Here, we develop two new methods for estimating supraglacial lake volume that can be easily applied on a large scale. Furthermore, we compare these methods to two previously developed methods in order to determine when it is best to use each method. Finally, three of these methods are applied to peak melt dates over an area in Northeast Greenland.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
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The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
Clim. Past, 20, 2349–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, 2024
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Studying climate conditions near the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during Earth’s past warm periods informs us about how global warming may influence AIS ice loss. Using a global climate model, we investigate climate conditions near the AIS during the Last Interglacial (129 to 116 kyr ago), a period with warmer global temperatures and higher sea level than today. We identify the orbital and freshwater forcings that could cause ice loss and probe the mechanisms that lead to warmer climate conditions.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
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We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
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Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
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We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 20, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, 2024
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In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. For this, we use data from the PlioMIP2 ensemble. Additionally, we investigate various sources of uncertainty, like ice dynamics and bedrock configuration. Our research significantly enhances our comprehension of Antarctica's response to a warming climate, shedding light on potential future tipping points that may be surpassed.
Veit Helm, Alireza Dehghanpour, Ronny Hänsch, Erik Loebel, Martin Horwath, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3933–3970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3933-2024, 2024
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We present a new approach (AWI-ICENet1), based on a deep convolutional neural network, for analysing satellite radar altimeter measurements to accurately determine the surface height of ice sheets. Surface height estimates obtained with AWI-ICENet1 (along with related products, such as ice sheet height change and volume change) show improved and unbiased results compared to other products. This is important for the long-term monitoring of ice sheet mass loss and its impact on sea level rise.
Gong Cheng, Mathieu Morlighem, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6227–6247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6227-2024, 2024
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We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the stabilization and reinitialization techniques currently employed in ISSM and Úa for solving level-set equations, specifically those related to the dynamic representation of moving ice fronts within numerical ice sheet models. Our results demonstrate that the streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method outperforms the other approaches. We found that excessively frequent reinitialization can lead to exceptionally high errors in simulations.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
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During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Erik Loebel, Mirko Scheinert, Martin Horwath, Angelika Humbert, Julia Sohn, Konrad Heidler, Charlotte Liebezeit, and Xiao Xiang Zhu
The Cryosphere, 18, 3315–3332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3315-2024, 2024
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Comprehensive datasets of calving-front changes are essential for studying and modeling outlet glaciers. Current records are limited in temporal resolution due to manual delineation. We use deep learning to automatically delineate calving fronts for 23 glaciers in Greenland. Resulting time series resolve long-term, seasonal, and subseasonal patterns. We discuss the implications of our results and provide the cryosphere community with a data product and an implementation of our processing system.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
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Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Niko Schmidt, Angelika Humbert, and Thomas Slawig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4943–4959, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4943-2024, 2024
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Future sea-level rise is of big significance for coastal regions. The melting and acceleration of glaciers plays a major role in sea-level change. Computer simulation of glaciers costs a lot of computational resources. In this publication, we test a new way of simulating glaciers. This approach produces the same results but has the advantage that it needs much less computation time. As simulations can be obtained with fewer computation resources, higher resolution and physics become affordable.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
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Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
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Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
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Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Hidetaka Kobayashi, Akira Oka, Takashi Obase, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 20, 769–787, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-769-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-769-2024, 2024
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This study examines the transient response of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change since the last ice age by using an ocean general circulation model. Our carbon cycle model calculates atmospheric pCO2 changes that are consistent with ice core records but whose magnitude is underestimated. Our analysis of carbon isotopes suggests that improving the expression of activated ocean ventilation and suppressing biological productivity are critical in simulating atmospheric pCO2 changes.
Ole Zeising, Niklas Neckel, Nils Dörr, Veit Helm, Daniel Steinhage, Ralph Timmermann, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 18, 1333–1357, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1333-2024, 2024
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The 79° North Glacier in Greenland has experienced significant changes over the last decades. Due to extreme melt rates, the ice has thinned significantly in the vicinity of the grounding line, where a large subglacial channel has formed since 2010. We attribute these changes to warm ocean currents and increased subglacial discharge from surface melt. However, basal melting has decreased since 2018, indicating colder water inflow into the cavity below the glacier.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
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We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
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This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
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Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Tom Keel, Chris Brierley, and Tamsin Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1229–1247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1229-2024, 2024
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Jet streams are an important control on surface weather as their speed and shape can modify the properties of weather systems. Establishing trends in the operation of jet streams may provide some indication of the future of weather in a warming world. Despite this, it has not been easy to establish trends, as many methods have been used to characterise them in data. We introduce a tool containing various implementations of jet stream statistics and algorithms that works in a standardised manner.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Anjali Sandip, Ludovic Räss, and Mathieu Morlighem
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 899–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-899-2024, 2024
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We solve momentum balance for unstructured meshes to predict ice flow for real glaciers using a pseudo-transient method on graphics processing units (GPUs) and compare it to a standard central processing unit (CPU) implementation. We justify the GPU implementation by applying the price-to-performance metric for up to million-grid-point spatial resolutions. This study represents a first step toward leveraging GPU processing power, enabling more accurate polar ice discharge predictions.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
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Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
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The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, Mana Inoue, Saïda El Amri, Sainan Sun, François Fripiat, Philippe Claeys, and Frank Pattyn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 35–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-35-2024, 2024
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The datasets presented are the density, water isotopes, ions, and conductivity measurements, as well as age models and surface mass balance (SMB) from the top 120 m of two ice cores drilled on adjacent ice rises in Dronning Maud Land, dating from the late 18th century. They offer many development possibilities for the interpretation of paleo-profiles and for addressing the mechanisms behind the spatial and temporal variability of SMB and proxies observed at the regional scale in East Antarctica.
Youngmin Choi, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Alex Gardner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5499–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, 2023
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Ice sheet models are often initialized using snapshot observations of present-day conditions, but this approach has limitations in capturing the transient evolution of the system. To more accurately represent the accelerating changes in glaciers, we employed time-dependent data assimilation. We found that models calibrated with the transient data better capture past trends and more accurately reproduce changes after the calibration period, even with limited observations.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
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Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 2551–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, 2023
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We investigated the different boundary conditions to allow ice sheet growth and ice sheet decline of the Antarctic ice sheet when it appeared ∼38–34 Myr ago. The thresholds for ice sheet growth and decline differ because of the different climatological conditions above an ice sheet (higher elevation and higher albedo) compared to a bare topography. We found that the ice–albedo feedback and the isostasy feedback respectively ease and delay the transition from a deglacial to glacial state.
Dominik Fahrner, Donald Slater, Aman KC, Claudia Cenedese, David A. Sutherland, Ellyn Enderlin, Femke de Jong, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Michael Wood, Peter Nienow, Sophie Nowicki, and Till Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, 2023
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Marine-terminating glaciers can lose mass through frontal ablation, which comprises submarine and surface melting, and iceberg calving. We estimate frontal ablation for 49 marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland by combining existing, satellite derived data and calculating volume change near the glacier front over time. The dataset offers exciting opportunities to study the influence of climate forcings on marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland over multi-decadal timescales.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 5131–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, 2023
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We compare components of the surface energy balance from two datasets, ERA5 and ERA-Interim, which can be used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). ERA5 differs significantly from ERA-Interim, especially in the melt regions with lower temperatures and stronger shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS SMB from ERA-Interim need to be carefully recalibrated before conversion to ERA5 forcing.
Michael Wolovick, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, and Martin Rückamp
The Cryosphere, 17, 5027–5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, 2023
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The friction underneath ice sheets can be inferred from observed velocity at the top, but this inference requires smoothing. The selection of smoothing has been highly variable in the literature. Here we show how to rigorously select the best smoothing, and we show that the inferred friction converges towards the best knowable field as model resolution improves. We use this to learn about the best description of basal friction and to formulate recommended best practices for other modelers.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
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We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Anne Braakmann-Folgmann, Andrew Shepherd, David Hogg, and Ella Redmond
The Cryosphere, 17, 4675–4690, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4675-2023, 2023
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In this study, we propose a deep neural network to map the extent of giant Antarctic icebergs in Sentinel-1 images automatically. While each manual delineation requires several minutes, our U-net takes less than 0.01 s. In terms of accuracy, we find that U-net outperforms two standard segmentation techniques (Otsu, k-means) in most metrics and is more robust to challenging scenes with sea ice, coast and other icebergs. The absolute median deviation in iceberg area across 191 images is 4.1 %.
Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, 2023
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We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4463–4485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023, 2023
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We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, with a 3D ice-flow model under the newest climate scenarios. We show that in all scenarios the ice masses retreat significantly but with large differences. It is highlighted that, because the main precipitation occurs in spring and summer, the ice masses respond to climate change with an accelerating retreat. In all scenarios, the total runoff peaks before 2050, with a (drastic) decrease afterwards.
Lander Van Tricht, Chloë Marie Paice, Oleg Rybak, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4315–4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, 2023
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We performed a field campaign to measure the ice thickness of the Grigoriev ice cap (Central Asia). We interpolated the ice thickness data to obtain an ice thickness distribution representing the state of the ice cap in 2021, with a total volume of ca. 0.4 km3. We then compared our results with global ice thickness datasets composed without our local measurements. The main takeaway is that these datasets do not perform well enough yet for ice caps such as the Grigoriev ice cap.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
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The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Yannic Fischler, Thomas Kleiner, Christian Bischof, Jeremie Schmiedel, Roiy Sayag, Raban Emunds, Lennart Frederik Oestreich, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5305–5322, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5305-2023, 2023
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Water underneath ice sheets affects the motion of glaciers. This study presents a newly developed code, CUAS-MPI, that simulates subglacial hydrology. It is designed for supercomputers and is hence a parallelized code. We measure the performance of this code for simulations of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet and find that the code works efficiently. Moreover, we validated the code to ensure the correctness of the solution. CUAS-MPI opens new possibilities for simulations of ice sheet hydrology.
Anja Løkkegaard, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Christian Zdanowicz, Gary D. Clow, Martin P. Lüthi, Samuel H. Doyle, Henrik H. Thomsen, David Fisher, Joel Harper, Andy Aschwanden, Bo M. Vinther, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Harry Zekollari, Toby Meierbachtol, Ian McDowell, Neil Humphrey, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Shfaqat A. Khan, Benjamin Hills, Robert Law, Bryn Hubbard, Poul Christoffersen, Mylène Jacquemart, Julien Seguinot, Robert S. Fausto, and William T. Colgan
The Cryosphere, 17, 3829–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023, 2023
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This study presents a database compiling 95 ice temperature profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and peripheral ice caps. Ice viscosity and hence ice flow are highly sensitive to ice temperature. To highlight the value of the database in evaluating ice flow simulations, profiles from the Greenland ice sheet are compared to a modeled temperature field. Reoccurring discrepancies between modeled and observed temperatures provide insight on the difficulties faced when simulating ice temperatures.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
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We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
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The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Yaowen Zheng, Nicholas R. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, Ghislain Picard, and Marion Leduc-Leballeur
The Cryosphere, 17, 3667–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023, 2023
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Positive degree-day (PDD) schemes are widely used in many Antarctic numerical ice sheet models. However, the PDD approach has not been systematically explored for its application in Antarctica. We have constructed a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed PDD (dist-PDD) model and assessed its accuracy. We suggest that an appropriately parameterized dist-PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
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We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Detailed 3D models can be applied for well-studied glaciers, whereas simplified approaches are used for regional/global assessments. We conducted a comparison of six Tien Shan glaciers employing different models and investigated the impact of in-situ measurements. Our results reveal that the choice of mass balance and ice flow model as well as calibration have minimal impact on the projected volume. The initial ice thickness exerts the greatest influence on the future remaining ice volume.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Ole Zeising, Martin Rückamp, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Erik Loebel, Jörg Brauchle, Karsten Stebner, Dietmar Gross, Rabea Sondershaus, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 17, 2851–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, 2023
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The largest floating glacier mass in Greenland, the 79° N Glacier, is showing signs of instability. We investigate how crack formation at the glacier's calving front has changed over the last decades by using satellite imagery and airborne data. The calving front is about to lose contact to stabilizing ice islands. Simulations show that the glacier will accelerate as a result of this, leading to an increase in ice discharge of more than 5.1 % if its calving front retreats by 46 %.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Fuyuki Saito, Shun Tsutaki, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, and Hideaki Motoyama
The Cryosphere, 17, 2543–2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2543-2023, 2023
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We use a one-dimensional ice-flow model to examine the most suitable core location near Dome Fuji (DF), Antarctica. This model computes the temporal evolution of age and temperature from past to present. We investigate the influence of different parameters of climate and ice sheet on the ice's basal age and compare the results with ground radar surveys. We find that the local ice thickness primarily controls the age because it is critical to the basal melting, which can eliminate the old ice.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Takashi Obase, Wing-Le Chan, André Paul, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 19, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1275-2023, 2023
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Stable water isotopes are tracers of climate processes occurring in the hydrological cycle. They are widely used to reconstruct the past variations of polar temperature before the instrumental era thanks to their measurements in ice cores. However, the relationship between measured isotopes and temperature has large uncertainties. In our study, we investigate how the sea surface conditions (temperature, sea ice, ocean circulation) impact this relationship for a cold to warm climate change.
Mattia Poinelli, Michael Schodlok, Eric Larour, Miren Vizcaino, and Riccardo Riva
The Cryosphere, 17, 2261–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, 2023
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Rifts are fractures on ice shelves that connect the ice on top to the ocean below. The impact of rifts on ocean circulation below Antarctic ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve the presence of rifts. Our model simulations show that a kilometer-wide rift near the ice-shelf front modulates heat intrusion beneath the ice and inhibits basal melt. These processes are therefore worthy of further investigation.
Michael J. Bentley, James A. Smith, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Margaret R. Lindeman, Brice R. Rea, Angelika Humbert, Timothy P. Lane, Christopher M. Darvill, Jeremy M. Lloyd, Fiamma Straneo, Veit Helm, and David H. Roberts
The Cryosphere, 17, 1821–1837, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1821-2023, 2023
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is a major outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Some of its outlet glaciers and ice shelves have been breaking up and retreating, with inflows of warm ocean water identified as the likely reason. Here we report direct measurements of warm ocean water in an unusual lake that is connected to the ocean beneath the ice shelf in front of the 79° N Glacier. This glacier has not yet shown much retreat, but the presence of warm water makes future retreat more likely.
Alex S. Gardner, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, 2023
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This is the first description of the open-source Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model. GEMB models the ice sheet and glacier surface–atmospheric energy and mass exchange, as well as the firn state. The model is evaluated against the current state of the art and in situ observations and is shown to perform well.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
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Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Lauren E. Burton, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-747-2023, 2023
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Warm climates of the Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) are similar to projections of the near future. We find elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide to be the most important forcing for driving changes in Pliocene surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation. However, changes caused by the nature of Pliocene ice sheets and orography are also important, affecting the extent to which we can use the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future.
Ole Zeising, Tamara Annina Gerber, Olaf Eisen, M. Reza Ershadi, Nicolas Stoll, Ilka Weikusat, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 17, 1097–1105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1097-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1097-2023, 2023
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The flow of glaciers and ice streams is influenced by crystal fabric orientation. Besides sparse ice cores, these can be investigated by radar measurements. Here, we present an improved method which allows us to infer the horizontal fabric asymmetry using polarimetric phase-sensitive radar data. A validation of the method on a deep ice core from the Greenland Ice Sheet shows an excellent agreement, which is a large improvement over previously used methods.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Ikumi Oyabu, Kenji Kawamura, Shuji Fujita, Ryo Inoue, Hideaki Motoyama, Kotaro Fukui, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Yu Hoshina, Naoyuki Kurita, Fumio Nakazawa, Hiroshi Ohno, Konosuke Sugiura, Toshitaka Suzuki, Shun Tsutaki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masashi Niwano, Frédéric Parrenin, Fuyuki Saito, and Masakazu Yoshimori
Clim. Past, 19, 293–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-293-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed accumulation rate around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, over the last 5000 years from 15 shallow ice cores and seven snow pits. We found a long-term decreasing trend in the preindustrial period, which may be associated with secular surface cooling and sea ice expansion. Centennial-scale variations were also found, which may partly be related to combinations of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The most rapid and intense increases of accumulation rate occurred since 1850 CE.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Clemens Schannwell, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, and Marie-Luise Kapsch
Clim. Past, 19, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, 2023
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Heinrich-type ice-sheet surges are recurring events over the course of the last glacial cycle during which large numbers of icebergs are discharged from the Laurentide ice sheet into the ocean. These events alter the evolution of the global climate. Here, we use model simulations of the Laurentide ice sheet to identify and quantify the importance of various climate and ice-sheet parameters for the simulated surge cycle.
Sarah Shannon, Anthony Payne, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Martina Kauzlaric, David Kriegel, and Stephan Harrison
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 453–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-453-2023, 2023
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Climate change poses a potential threat to water supply in glaciated river catchments. In this study, we added a snowmelt and glacier melt model to the Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology model (DECIPHeR). The model is applied to the Naryn River catchment in central Asia and is found to reproduce past change discharge and the spatial extent of seasonal snow cover well.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
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We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
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To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
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The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
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We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Angelika Humbert, Julia Christmann, Hugh F. J. Corr, Veit Helm, Lea-Sophie Höyns, Coen Hofstede, Ralf Müller, Niklas Neckel, Keith W. Nicholls, Timm Schultz, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Wolovick, and Ole Zeising
The Cryosphere, 16, 4107–4139, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4107-2022, 2022
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Ice shelves are normally flat structures that fringe the Antarctic continent. At some locations they have channels incised into their underside. On Filchner Ice Shelf, such a channel is more than 50 km long and up to 330 m high. We conducted field measurements of basal melt rates and found a maximum of 2 m yr−1. Simulations represent the geometry evolution of the channel reasonably well. There is no reason to assume that this type of melt channel is destabilizing ice shelves.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Francesca Baldacchino, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, and Alena Malyarenko
The Cryosphere, 16, 3723–3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3723-2022, 2022
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf will evolve in a warming world is important to the future stability of Antarctica. It remains unclear what changes could drive the largest mass loss in the future and where places are most likely to trigger larger mass losses. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing that the RIS is sensitive to changes in environmental and glaciological controls at regions which are currently experiencing changes. These regions need to be monitored in a warming world.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Shun Tsutaki, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Kotaro Fukui, Hideaki Motoyama, Yu Hoshina, Fumio Nakazawa, Takashi Obase, Hiroshi Ohno, Ikumi Oyabu, Fuyuki Saito, Konosuke Sugiura, and Toshitaka Suzuki
The Cryosphere, 16, 2967–2983, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2967-2022, 2022
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We constructed an ice thickness map across the Dome Fuji region, East Antarctica, from improved radar data and previous data that had been collected since the late 1980s. The data acquired using the improved radar systems allowed basal topography to be identified with higher accuracy. The new ice thickness data show the bedrock topography, particularly the complex terrain of subglacial valleys and highlands south of Dome Fuji, with substantially high detail.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Adrian K. Turner, William H. Lipscomb, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Douglas W. Jacobsen, Nicole Jeffery, Darren Engwirda, Todd D. Ringler, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022
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We present the dynamical core of the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a mesh consisting of a Voronoi tessellation with polygonal cells. Such a mesh allows variable mesh resolution in different parts of the domain and the focusing of computational resources in regions of interest. We describe the velocity solver and tracer transport schemes used and examine errors generated by the model in both idealized and realistic test cases and examine the computational efficiency of the model.
Yannic Fischler, Martin Rückamp, Christian Bischof, Vadym Aizinger, Mathieu Morlighem, and Angelika Humbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3753–3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3753-2022, 2022
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Ice sheet models are used to simulate the changes of ice sheets in future but are currently often run in coarse resolution and/or with neglecting important physics to make them affordable in terms of computational costs. We conducted a study simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet in high resolution and adequate physics to test where the ISSM ice sheet code is using most time and what could be done to improve its performance for future computer architectures that allow massive parallel computing.
M. Reza Ershadi, Reinhard Drews, Carlos Martín, Olaf Eisen, Catherine Ritz, Hugh Corr, Julia Christmann, Ole Zeising, Angelika Humbert, and Robert Mulvaney
The Cryosphere, 16, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1719-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1719-2022, 2022
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Radio waves transmitted through ice split up and inform us about the ice sheet interior and orientation of single ice crystals. This can be used to infer how ice flows and improve projections on how it will evolve in the future. Here we used an inverse approach and developed a new algorithm to infer ice properties from observed radar data. We applied this technique to the radar data obtained at two EPICA drilling sites, where ice cores were used to validate our results.
Martin Rückamp, Thomas Kleiner, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, 2022
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We present a comparative modelling study between the full-Stokes (FS) and Blatter–Pattyn (BP) approximation applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Both stress regimes are implemented in one single ice sheet code to eliminate numerical issues. The simulations unveil minor differences in the upper ice stream but become considerable at the grounding line of the 79° North Glacier. Model differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law.
Ole Zeising, Daniel Steinhage, Keith W. Nicholls, Hugh F. J. Corr, Craig L. Stewart, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 1469–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1469-2022, 2022
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Remote-sensing-derived basal melt rates of ice shelves are of great importance due to their capability to cover larger areas. We performed in situ measurements with a phase-sensitive radar on the southern Filchner Ice Shelf, showing moderate melt rates and low small-scale spatial variability. The comparison with remote-sensing-based melt rates revealed large differences caused by the estimation of vertical strain rates from remote sensing velocity fields that modern fields can overcome.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
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To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Blake A. Castleman, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Lambert Caron, Eric Larour, and Ala Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 16, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, 2022
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In the described study, we derive an uncertainty range for global mean sea level rise (SLR) contribution from Thwaites Glacier in a 200-year period under an extreme ocean warming scenario. We derive the spatial and vertical resolutions needed for bedrock data acquisition missions in order to limit global mean SLR contribution from Thwaites Glacier to ±2 cm in a 200-year period. We conduct sensitivity experiments in order to present the locations of critical regions in need of accurate mapping.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Thomas Frank, Henning Åkesson, Basile de Fleurian, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kerim H. Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 16, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, 2022
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The shape of a fjord can promote or inhibit glacier retreat in response to climate change. We conduct experiments with a synthetic setup under idealized conditions in a numerical model to study and quantify the processes involved. We find that friction between ice and fjord is the most important factor and that it is possible to directly link ice discharge and grounding line retreat to fjord topography in a quantitative way.
Kevin Bulthuis and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1195–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022, 2022
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We present and implement a stochastic solver to sample spatially and temporal varying uncertain input parameters in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, such as ice thickness or surface mass balance. We represent these sources of uncertainty using Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function. We generate random samples of this random field using an efficient computational approach based on solving a stochastic partial differential equation.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
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Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Douglas Brinkerhoff
The Cryosphere, 16, 179–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, 2022
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Projecting the future evolution of Greenland and Antarctica and their potential contribution to sea level rise often relies on computer simulations carried out by numerical ice sheet models. Here we present a new vertically integrated ice sheet model and assess its performance using different benchmarks. The new model shows results comparable to a three-dimensional model at relatively lower computational cost, suggesting that it is an excellent alternative for long-term simulations.
Timm Schultz, Ralf Müller, Dietmar Gross, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-143-2022, 2022
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Firn is the interstage product between snow and ice. Simulations describing the process of firn densification are used in the context of estimating mass changes of the ice sheets and past climate reconstructions. The first stage of firn densification takes place in the upper few meters of the firn column. We investigate how well a material law describing the process of grain boundary sliding works for the numerical simulation of firn densification in this stage.
Emma K. Fiedler, Matthew J. Martin, Ed Blockley, Davi Mignac, Nicolas Fournier, Andy Ridout, Andrew Shepherd, and Rachel Tilling
The Cryosphere, 16, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-61-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-61-2022, 2022
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Sea ice thickness (SIT) observations derived from CryoSat-2 satellite measurements have been successfully used to initialise an ocean and sea ice forecasting model (FOAM). Other centres have previously used gridded and averaged SIT observations for this purpose, but we demonstrate here for the first time that SIT measurements along the satellite orbit track can be used. Validation of the resulting modelled SIT demonstrates improvements in the model performance compared to a control.
Anna Derkacheva, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Jeremie Mouginot, Eliot Jager, Nathan Maier, and Samuel Cook
The Cryosphere, 15, 5675–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5675-2021, 2021
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Along the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt lubricates the bed and causes large seasonal fluctuations in ice speeds during summer. Accurately understanding how these ice speed changes occur is difficult due to the inaccessibility of the glacier bed. We show that by using surface velocity maps with high temporal resolution and numerical modelling we can infer the basal conditions that control seasonal fluctuations in ice speed and gain insight into seasonal dynamics over large areas.
Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021
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Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
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Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Akira Oka, Takahito Mitsui, and Fuyuki Saito
Clim. Past, 17, 1919–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1919-2021, 2021
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Short summary
Glacial periods underwent climate shifts between warm states and cold states on a millennial timescale. Frequency of these climate shifts varied along time: it was shorter during mid-glacial period compared to early glacial period. Here, from climate simulations of early and mid-glacial periods with a comprehensive climate model, we show that the larger ice sheet in the mid-glacial compared to early glacial periods could contribute to the frequent climate shifts during the mid-glacial period.
Cited articles
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Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet...
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