Articles | Volume 14, issue 9
Research article
15 Sep 2020
Research article |  | 15 Sep 2020

Bayesian calibration of firn densification models

Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, Christopher Nemeth, C. Max Stevens, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice Noël, and Jan Melchior van Wessem

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Cited articles

Alley, R. B.: Firn Densification By Grain-Boundary Sliding: a First Model, J. Phys. Colloq., 48, C1-249–C1-256,, 1987. 
Anderson, D. L. and Benson, C. S.: The densification and diagenesis of snow, in: Ice and snow: properties, processes, and applications, edited by: Kingery, W. D., MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA, 391–411, 1963. 
Arnaud, L., Gay, M., Barnola, J.-M., and Duval, P.: Physical modeling of the densification of snow/firn and ice in the upper part of polar ice sheets, in: Physics of Ice Core Records, edited by: Hondoh, T., Hokkaido University Press, Sapporo, Japan, 285–305, 2000. 
Arthern, R. J. and Wingham, D. J.: The Natural Fluctuations of Firn Densification and Their Effect on the Geodetic Determination of Ice Sheet Mass Balance, Clim. Change, 40, 605–624,, 1998. 
Arthern, R. J., Vaughan, D. G., Rankin, A. M., Mulvaney, R., and Thomas, E. R.: In situ measurements of Antarctic snow compaction compared with predictions of models, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 115, 1–12,, 2010. 
Short summary
Ice sheets are covered by a firn layer, which is the transition stage between fresh snow and ice. Accurate modelling of firn density properties is important in many glaciological aspects. Current models show disagreements, are mostly calibrated to match specific observations of firn density and lack thorough uncertainty analysis. We use a novel calibration method for firn models based on a Bayesian statistical framework, which results in improved model accuracy and in uncertainty evaluation.