Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Jan 2019
Research article |
| 29 Jan 2019
| 29 Jan 2019
Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes
F.R.S.-FNRS, Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR8212), CEA Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, 38000, Grenoble, France
Charles Amory
F.R.S.-FNRS, Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Christoph Kittel
F.R.S.-FNRS, Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Anais Orsi
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/CEA-CNRS-UVSQ UMR8212), CEA Saclay, 91190 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Vincent Favier
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, 38000, Grenoble, France
Hubert Gallée
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, 38000, Grenoble, France
Michiel R. van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Jan Melchior van Wessem
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Willem Jan van de Berg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Xavier Fettweis
F.R.S.-FNRS, Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium
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The Cryosphere, 20, 3581–3598, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3581-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3581-2026, 2026
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2270, 2026
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Raf Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Pierre Gentine, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
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Ian Castellanos, Martin Ménégoz, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Chantal Staquet, and Xavier Fettweis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 581–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026, 2026
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The Alps host glaciers, distinct ecosystems, socio-economic interests and water resources that are being impacted by climate change. In this study, we aim at understanding how warming occurs in the Alps in projected scenarios and what physical processes drive it. We find under these scenarios that elevations around the snowline will warm faster than elsewhere, because snow retreats to higher elevations. Indeed, snow slows down warming due to its high albedo and the energy consumed to melt it.
Fredrik Boberg, Xavier Fettweis, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 20, 2947–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, 2026
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An ensemble of regional climate model simulations is used to estimate the 21st century change in precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet. For the end of the century, the change is in the range 40 to 170 Gt per year, depending on the emission scenario. Using annual values of 2 m air temperature and precipitation, we estimate an increase in precipitation of 35 Gt per year for every degree of warming.
Jonathon R. Preece, Patrick Alexander, Thomas L. Mote, Gabriel J. Kooperman, Xavier Fettweis, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 20, 2871–2894, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2871-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2871-2026, 2026
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Surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased dramatically since the turn of the century, aided by an increase in persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that promote anomalously warm conditions. Through modeling experiments, this study shows that surface mass loss would have been reduced by 62% relative to historical conditions if this shift in atmospheric circulation would have occurred under the lower average temperatures of a preindustrial climate.
Ella Gilbert, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Marte G. Hofsteenge, Willem Jan van de Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Christiaan Timo van Dalum, Xavier Fettweis, Siddharth Gumber, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Damien Maure, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Maurice van Tiggelen, Kristiina Verro, and Priscilla A. Mooney
The Cryosphere, 20, 2629–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026, 2026
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Here we present a new dataset – the PolarRES ensemble – of four state-of-the-art regional climate models, which capture the full complexity of Antarctica's climate. The ensemble out-performs other available tools, advancing our ability to explore Antarctic climate. While it still has limitations, the PolarRES ensemble offers a novel and exciting way of evaluating climate processes and features, and we encourage researchers to use the data, which are freely available.
Samuel M. Tax, Maurice van Tiggelen, Thirza N. Feenstra, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1926, 2026
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Strong winds can lift snow into the air, which influences the energy exchange between the surface and the atmosphere. We studied this phenomenon over the Greenland Ice Sheet using observations and a climate model. We found that blowing snow traps heat near the surface like a blanket and reflects incoming sunlight like a mirror. Simulating these processes increases the net energy at the surface and improves model accuracy. Therefore, we recommend including these effects in climate models.
Audrey Goutard, Marion Réveillet, Fanny Brun, Delphine Six, Kevin Fourteau, Charles Amory, Xavier Fettweis, Mathieu Fructus, Arbindra Khadka, and Matthieu Lafaysse
The Cryosphere, 20, 2393–2416, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2393-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2393-2026, 2026
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A new scheme has been developed in a snowpack model (SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus), to consider the impact of liquid water dynamics on bare ice, including albedo feedback and refreezing. When applied to the Mera Glacier in Nepal, the model reveals strong seasonal effects on the energy and mass balance, with increased melting in dry seasons and significant refreezing during the monsoon. This development improves mass balance modeling under increasing rainfall and bare ice exposure due to climate warming.
Titouan Tcheng, Elise Fourré, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Frédéric Parrenin, Emmanuel Le Meur, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Roxanne Jacob, Bénédicte Minster, Olivier Magand, Cécile Agosta, Niels Dutrievoz, Vincent Favier, Léa Baubant, Coralie Lassalle-Bernard, Mathieu Casado, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Laurent Arnaud, Bruno Jourdain, Ghislain Picard, Marie Bouchet, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 20, 1599–1618, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1599-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1599-2026, 2026
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Studying Antarctic ice cores is crucial to assess past climate changes, as they hold historical climate data. This study examines multiple ice cores from three sites in coastal Adélie Land to see if combining cores improves data interpretability. It does at two sites, but at a third, wind-driven snow layer mixing limited benefits. We show that using multiple ice cores from one location can better uncover climate history, especially in areas with less wind disturbance.
Emma Samin, Amaëlle Landais, Elise Fourré, Mathieu Casado, Adrien Ooms, Niels Dutrievoz, Cécile Agosta, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Thomas Combacal, Elsa Gautier, and Bénédicte Minster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-871, 2026
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This study presents the water isotope profiles of two firn cores drilled at Little Dome C (LDC) in Antarctica and dated by identifying volcanic events, which enabled us to determine an accumulation rate at LDC of 24 mmwe.yr-1. Comparison of a virtual firn core model with these data allowed us to study the surface processes responsible for isotopic variability in firn. We therefore suggest that future models consider the mixing of the surface layer and re-quantify diffusion.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 1405–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026, 2026
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently thinning, especially at major outlet glaciers. Including present-day ice thinning rates in models is a modeller's choice and can affect future projections. This study quantifies the impact of current imbalance on forced future projections, revealing strong regional and short-term (up to 2100) effects when these mass change rates are included.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Thirza N. Feenstra, Willem Jan van de Berg, Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff, David P. Donovan, Christiaan T. van Dalum, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 1323–1344, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1323-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1323-2026, 2026
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Cloud representation brings large uncertainties in polar climate modeling. We show the first evaluation of Greenland clouds in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.4) with new EarthCARE satellite data. Comparing lidar and radar observations and retrieved cloud profiles with co-located RACMO output, we find RACMO captures low ice clouds but underestimates high clouds, mid-altitude liquid clouds, and snowfall. These results highlight EarthCARE's potential to improve polar climate models.
Tesse E. A. van den Aker, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-462, 2026
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The firn layer, i.e. permanent snow, regulates how an ice sheet responds to climate change. Firn models are forced with with climate data at time steps from sub-daily to annual in literature, however, implications are barely evaluated. We test the impact of different climate forcing time steps on the modeled firn layer. We conclude that the climate forcing time step (1) affects firn model output, (2) can lead to non-physical behaviour, and (3) that resolving at least a diurnal cycle is required.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 1217–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026, 2026
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Ice sheet models to simulate future sea level rise require parameterizations, like for the friction at the bedrock. Studies have quantified the effect of using different parameterizations, and some have concluded that projections are sensitive to the choice of the specific parameterization. In this study, we show that you can make an ice sheet model sensitive to the basal friction parameterization, and that for different modellers choices you can also make the model insensitive to this.
Niels Dutrievoz, Cécile Agosta, Cécile Davrinche, Amaëlle Landais, Sebastien Nguyen, Étienne Vignon, Inès Ollivier, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Mathieu Casado, Jonathan Wille, Vincent Favier, Bénédicte Minster, and Frédéric Prié
The Cryosphere, 20, 1025–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1025-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1025-2026, 2026
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In December 2018, an atmospheric river event from the Atlantic reached Dome C, East Antarctica, causing a +18 °C warming, tripled water vapour, and a strong isotopic anomaly in water vapour (+ 17 ‰ for δ18O) at the surface. During the peak of the event, we found 70 % of the water vapour came from local snow sublimation, and 30 % from the atmospheric river itself, highlighting both long-range moisture advection and interactions between the boundary layer and the snowpack.
Ida Haven, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Laura J. Dietrich, Sonja Wahl, Jason E. Box, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Alun Hubbard, Stephan T. Kral, Joachim Reuder, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 20, 573–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-573-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-573-2026, 2026
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Three independent Eddy-Covariance measurement systems deployed on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet are compared. Using this dataset, we evaluate the reproducibility and quantify the differences between the systems. The fidelity of two regional climate models in capturing the seasonal variability in the latent and sensible heat flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere is assessed. We identify differences between observations and model simulations, especially during the winter period.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 20, 427–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, 2026
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Chloë Marie Paice, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 20, 309–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, 2026
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To study Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere interactions, we coupled an ice sheet model to a regional climate model and performed simulations of differing coupling complexity over 1000 years under a high-warming climate scenario. They reveal that at first melt at the ice sheet margin is reduced by changing wind patterns. But over time, as the ice sheet melts and its surface lowers, precipitation patterns and cloudiness also change and amplify ice mass loss over the entire ice sheet.
Étienne Vignon, Nicolas Chiabrando, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Valentin Wiener, Justine Charrel, Thomas Dubos, and Christophe Genthon
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 239–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-239-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-239-2026, 2026
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The erosion of surface snow by the wind is an important process for the Antarctic surface mass balance. This study presents the first development of a parameterisation of blowing snow for a global climate model. Simulations avec evaluated using measurements in Antarctica. Results show an overall decrease of the snow accumulation in the escarpment region of the ice sheet due to snow erosion and an increase at the coast due to blowing snow deposition and increase in precipitation.
Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Bert Wouters, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 20, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-87-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-87-2026, 2026
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We produce annual maps of Antarctic surface melt volumes from 2012 to 2021 using satellite microwave data. We detect melting days from thresholds on the satellite signal and then use actual melt measurements from weather stations to convert those signals into water‑equivalent volumes. Our maps capture known melt hotspots and show slightly lower totals than climate models. This dataset supports climate and ice‑shelf studies.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
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We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 19, 6023–6042, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025, 2025
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We analyse changes in Antarctic winter surface winds projected by 4 models. Depending on the area and model, changes on the continent by 2100 reveal opposing trends. Nevertheless, models agree on a strengthening of surface winds in Adélie Land for example and a weakening in some other areas such as the Amundsen region. We attribute the strengthening of near-surface winds to changes in the large-sale atmospheric circulation and the weakening to changes in the structure of the lower atmosphere.
Claudio Stefanini, Barbara Stenni, Mauro Masiol, Giuliano Dreossi, Vincent Favier, Francesca Becherini, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Gabriele Carugati, and Massimo Frezzotti
The Cryosphere, 19, 5781–5799, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5781-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5781-2025, 2025
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This study analyzes snow accumulation near Concordia Station in Antarctica (3233 m) to estimate yearly snow accumulation. Data from Italian and French stake farms show strong variation due to wind and surface features. On average, 7–8 cm of snow accumulate yearly near the Station. The study also compares results with climate models and explores whether the station buildings affect measurements.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 19, 5157–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, 2025
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firns, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict the 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcing datasets. Our findings suggest that, in low-emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, in a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
René R. Wijngaard, Willem Jan van de Berg, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Adam R. Herrington, and Xavier J. Levine
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1241–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1241-2025, 2025
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We used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate present-day and future Arctic temperature and precipitation extremes using global grids (~111 km) with and without regional refinement (~28 km) and a storyline approach. Refined grids generally perform better for precipitation extremes, while unrefined grids perform better for temperature extremes. Future projections show increases in high temperature and wet precipitation extremes and decreases in low temperature extremes.
Inès Ollivier, Thomas Lauwers, Niels Dutrievoz, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Elise Fourré, Christophe Genthon, Olivier Jossoud, Frédéric Prié, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, and Amaëlle Landais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5655–5674, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5655-2025, 2025
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We present a novel 2.5-month record of the atmospheric water vapour isotopic composition during the austral summer 2023–2024 at Concordia Station on the Antarctic Plateau. We show that two independent laser spectrometers accurately record the diurnal variability of the atmospheric water vapour 𝛿18O, 𝛿D, and d-excess. We compare the measurements against outputs of the isotope-enabled general circulation model LMDZ6-iso to show how the data can be used to evaluate such models.
Thomas Dethinne, Nicolas Ghilain, Christoph Kittel, Benjamin Lecart, Xavier Fettweis, and François Jonard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, 2025
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This study replace standard vegetation input of a regional climate model with a satellite-based vegetation dataset to assess how vegetation influences climate during extreme events and to test the sensitivity of the model. The results show a non-linear sensitivity to vegetation, and using an observation-based vegetation input allows for a better representation of the extreme events, highlight the need for an advanced representation of vegetation in climate model to improve climate predictions.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, and Johanna Beckmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 4459–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025, 2025
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This study explores how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) responds to different levels of stabilized global warming and if the climate cools back. Our findings show that global temperature increases beyond +2.3 °C mark a critical threshold. We also highlight the importance of limiting warming to avoid irreversible ice loss, as well as the potential for recovery after temporarily exceeding warming thresholds if action is taken quickly to lower global temperatures.
Kristiina Verro, Cecilia Äijälä, Roberta Pirazzini, Ruzica Dadic, Damien Maure, Willem Jan van de Berg, Giacomo Traversa, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Petteri Uotila, Xavier Fettweis, Biagio Di Mauro, and Milla Johansson
The Cryosphere, 19, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025, 2025
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Accurately representing Antarctic sea ice is essential for reliable climate and ocean model predictions. We evaluated how different models simulate the sea ice's sunlight reflectivity (called albedo) using field and satellite data. Models with simple albedo schemes performed well in limited cases but missed key processes. The advanced scheme in the MetROMS-UHel ocean model provided the most accurate results, including observed day–night albedo changes observed during a field campaign.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 19, 4061–4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature, and wind speed compare well with in situ and remote sensing observations.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4933–4955, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4933-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4933-2025, 2025
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This paper describes the measurements from the 19 IMAU (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht) automatic weather stations that operated on the Antarctic ice sheet from 1995 through 2022. These stations also measured the net surface radiation and surface height change, allowing for the quantification of the surface energy and mass balance at hourly resolution. These data are invaluable for the evaluation of atmospheric models and for the detection of climatological changes.
Anneke L. Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 19, 3897–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3897-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3897-2025, 2025
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Freshwater flows into Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge (e.g. calving icebergs) dominates freshwater input in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are the most significant. Seasonal data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the monthly freshwater input, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Zhengwen Yan, Jiangjun Ran, Pavel Ditmar, C. K. Shum, Roland Klees, Patrick Smith, and Xavier Fettweis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4253–4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4253-2025, 2025
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The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has greatly improved our understanding of changes in Earth's gravity field over time. A novel mass concentration (mascon) dataset, GCL-Mascon2024, was determined by leveraging the short-arc approach, advanced spatial constraints, a frequency-dependent noise processing strategy, and parameterization-integrating natural boundaries, aiming to enhance accuracy for monitoring mass transportation on Earth.
Weiran Li, Stef Lhermitte, Bert Wouters, Cornelis Slobbe, Max Brils, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 19, 3419–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3419-2025, 2025
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Due to recurrent melt and refreezing events in recent decades, the snow conditions over Greenland have changed. To observe this, we use a parameter (leading edge width; LeW) derived from satellite altimetry and analyse its spatial and temporal variations. By comparing the LeW variations with modelled firn parameters, we concluded that the 2012 melt event and the recent and increasingly frequent melt events have a long-lasting impact on the volume scattering of Greenland firn.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
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A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, 2025
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Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan Lenaerts, Kristine M. Larson, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 19, 713–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, 2025
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Traditionally, glaciologists use global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) to measure the surface elevation and velocity of glaciers to understand processes associated with ice flow. Using the interference of GNSS signals that bounce off of the ice sheet surface, we measure the surface height change near GNSS receivers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). From surface height change, we infer daily accumulation rates that we use to understand the drivers of extreme precipitation in the ASE.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
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The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Srinidhi Gadde and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 18, 4933–4953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, 2024
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Blowing-snow sublimation is the major loss term in the mass balance of Antarctica. In this study we update the blowing-snow representation in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). With the updates, results compare well with observations from East Antarctica. Also, the continent-wide variation of blowing snow compares well with satellite observations. Hence, the updates provide a clear step forward in producing a physically sound and reliable estimate of the mass balance of Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Julien Westhoff, Johannes Freitag, Anaïs Orsi, Patricia Martinerie, Ilka Weikusat, Michael Dyonisius, Xavier Faïn, Kevin Fourteau, and Thomas Blunier
The Cryosphere, 18, 4379–4397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4379-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4379-2024, 2024
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We study the EastGRIP area, Greenland, in detail with traditional and novel techniques. Due to the compaction of the ice, at a certain depth, atmospheric gases can no longer exchange, and the atmosphere is trapped in air bubbles in the ice. We find this depth by pumping air from a borehole, modeling, and using a new technique based on the optical appearance of the ice. Our results suggest that the close-off depth lies at around 58–61 m depth and more precisely at 58.3 m depth.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Romilly Harris Stuart, Amaëlle Landais, Laurent Arnaud, Christo Buizert, Emilie Capron, Marie Dumont, Quentin Libois, Robert Mulvaney, Anaïs Orsi, Ghislain Picard, Frédéric Prié, Jeffrey Severinghaus, Barbara Stenni, and Patricia Martinerie
The Cryosphere, 18, 3741–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3741-2024, 2024
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Ice core δO2/N2 records are useful dating tools due to their local insolation pacing. A precise understanding of the physical mechanism driving this relationship, however, remain ambiguous. By compiling data from 15 polar sites, we find a strong dependence of mean δO2/N2 on accumulation rate and temperature in addition to the well-documented insolation dependence. Snowpack modelling is used to investigate which physical properties drive the mechanistic dependence on these local parameters.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere, 18, 2239–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, 2024
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Coastal surface winds in Antarctica are amongst the strongest winds on Earth. They are either driven by the cooling of the surface air mass by the ice sheet (katabatic) or by large-scale pressure systems. Here we compute the relative contribution of these drivers. We find that seasonal variations in the wind speed come from the katabatic acceleration, but, at a 3-hourly timescale, none of the large-scale or katabatic accelerations can be considered as the main driver.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Tessa R. Vance, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Camilla K. Crockart, Aylin DeCampo, Vincent Favier, Vasileios Gkinis, Margaret Harlan, Sarah L. Jackson, Helle A. Kjær, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith K. Nation, Christopher T. Plummer, Delia Segato, Andrea Spolaor, and Paul T. Vallelonga
Clim. Past, 20, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, 2024
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This study presents the chronologies from the new Mount Brown South ice cores from East Antarctica, which were developed by counting annual layers in the ice core data and aligning these to volcanic sulfate signatures. The uncertainty in the dating is quantified, and we discuss initial results from seasonal cycle analysis and mean annual concentrations. The chronologies will underpin the development of new proxy records for East Antarctica spanning the past millennium.
Amaelle Landais, Cécile Agosta, Françoise Vimeux, Olivier Magand, Cyrielle Solis, Alexandre Cauquoin, Niels Dutrievoz, Camille Risi, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Olivier Cattani, Olivier Jossoud, Bénédicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Mathieu Casado, Aurélien Dommergue, Yann Bertrand, and Martin Werner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4611–4634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4611-2024, 2024
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We have monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We show 11 periods associated with abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18Ο. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Accurately representing the water isotopic signal during these cold fronts is a real challenge for the atmospheric components of Earth system models equipped with water isotopes.
Sara Bacer, Julien Beaumet, Martin Ménégoz, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 211–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-211-2024, 2024
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A model chain is used to downscale outputs from a climate model to the Grenoble valley atmosphere over the 21st century in order to study the impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pool episodes. We find that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during these episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario but that very stable persistent cold-air pool episodes can still form.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Claudio Stefanini, Giovanni Macelloni, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Vincent Favier, Benjamin Pohl, and Ghislain Picard
The Cryosphere, 18, 593–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-593-2024, 2024
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Local and large-scale meteorological conditions have been considered in order to explain some peculiar changes of snow grains on the East Antarctic Plateau from 2000 to 2022, by using remote sensing observations and reanalysis. We identified some extreme grain size events on the highest ice divide, resulting from a combination of conditions of low wind speed and low temperature. Moreover, the beginning of seasonal grain growth has been linked to the occurrence of atmospheric rivers.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
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The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Laura J. Dietrich, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, 2024
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The contribution of the humidity flux to the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is uncertain. Here, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR using a multi-annual dataset of eddy covariance measurements and bulk estimates of the humidity flux. The humidity flux largely contributes to the summer surface mass balance (SMB) in the accumulation zone, indicating its potential importance for the annual SMB in a warming climate.
Aymeric P. M. Servettaz, Cécile Agosta, Christoph Kittel, and Anaïs J. Orsi
The Cryosphere, 17, 5373–5389, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, 2023
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It has been previously observed in polar regions that the atmospheric temperature is warmer during precipitation events. Here, we use a regional atmospheric model to quantify the temperature changes associated with snowfall events across Antarctica. We show that more intense snowfall is statistically associated with a warmer temperature anomaly compared to the seasonal average, with the largest anomalies seen in winter. This bias may affect water isotopes in ice cores deposited during snowfall.
Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Elise Fourré, Cécile Agosta, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, Benedicte Minster, Frédéric Prié, Olivier Jossoud, Leila Petit, and Amaëlle Landais
The Cryosphere, 17, 5241–5254, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5241-2023, 2023
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In the face of global warming, understanding the changing water cycle and temperatures in polar regions is crucial. These factors directly impact the balance of ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic. By studying the composition of water vapor, we gain insights into climate variations. Our 2-year study at Dumont d’Urville station, Adélie Land, offers valuable data to refine models. Additionally, we demonstrate how modeling aids in interpreting signals from ice core samples in the region.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
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We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Damien Maure, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Alison Delhasse, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4645–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Studies have already shown that Greenland and the Canadian Arctic are experiencing a record increase in melting rates, while Svalbard has been relatively less impacted. Looking at those regions but also extending the study to Iceland and the Russian Arctic archipelagoes, we see a heterogeneity in the melting-rate response to the Arctic warming, with the Russian archipelagoes experiencing lower melting rates than other regions.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
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We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Lena G. Buth, Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Sophie de Roda Husman, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Bert Wouters
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, 2023
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
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Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Fanny Brun, Owen King, Marion Réveillet, Charles Amory, Anton Planchot, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Marie Dumont, Christoph Mayer, Silvan Leinss, Romain Hugonnet, and Patrick Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 17, 3251–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, 2023
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The South Col Glacier is a small body of ice and snow located on the southern ridge of Mt. Everest. A recent study proposed that South Col Glacier is rapidly losing mass. In this study, we examined the glacier thickness change for the period 1984–2017 and found no thickness change. To reconcile these results, we investigate wind erosion and surface energy and mass balance and find that melt is unlikely a dominant process, contrary to previous findings.
Sara Arioli, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, and Vincent Favier
The Cryosphere, 17, 2323–2342, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2323-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2323-2023, 2023
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To assess the drivers of the snow grain size evolution during snow drift, we exploit a 5-year time series of the snow grain size retrieved from spectral-albedo observations made with a new, autonomous, multi-band radiometer and compare it to observations of snow drift, snowfall and snowmelt at a windy location of coastal Antarctica. Our results highlight the complexity of the grain size evolution in the presence of snow drift and show an overall tendency of snow drift to limit its variations.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Aymeric P. M. Servettaz, Anaïs J. Orsi, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Amaelle Landais, Joseph R. McConnell, Trevor J. Popp, Emmanuel Le Meur, Xavier Faïn, and Jérôme Chappellaz
Clim. Past, 19, 1125–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1125-2023, 2023
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The temperature of the past 2000 years is still poorly known in vast parts of the East Antarctic plateau. In this study, we present temperature reconstructions based on water and gas stable isotopes from the Aurora Basin North ice core. Spatial and temporal significance of each proxy differs, and we can identify some cold periods in the snow temperature up to 2°C cooler in the 1000–1400 CE period, which could not be determined with water isotopes only.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Christo Buizert, Sarah Shackleton, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, William H. G. Roberts, Alan Seltzer, Bernhard Bereiter, Kenji Kawamura, Daniel Baggenstos, Anaïs J. Orsi, Ikumi Oyabu, Benjamin Birner, Jacob D. Morgan, Edward J. Brook, David M. Etheridge, David Thornton, Nancy Bertler, Rebecca L. Pyne, Robert Mulvaney, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Peter D. Neff, and Vasilii V. Petrenko
Clim. Past, 19, 579–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-579-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-579-2023, 2023
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It is unclear how different components of the global atmospheric circulation, such as the El Niño effect, respond to large-scale climate change. We present a new ice core gas proxy, called krypton-86 excess, that reflects past storminess in Antarctica. We present data from 11 ice cores that suggest the new proxy works. We present a reconstruction of changes in West Antarctic storminess over the last 24 000 years and suggest these are caused by north–south movement of the tropical rain belt.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
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We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Xavier Fettweis, Oluwanisola Ibikunle, Carl Leuschen, John Paden, Daniel Gomez-Garcia, and Emily Arnold
The Cryosphere, 17, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, 2023
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Alaskan glaciers' loss of ice mass contributes significantly to ocean surface rise. It is important to know how deeply and how much snow accumulates on these glaciers to comprehend and analyze the glacial mass loss process. We reported the observed seasonal snow depth distribution from our radar data taken in Alaska in 2018 and 2021, developed a method to estimate the annual snow accumulation rate at Mt. Wrangell caldera, and identified transition zones from wet-snow zones to ablation zones.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
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Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
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Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Sébastien Doutreloup, Xavier Fettweis, Ramin Rahif, Essam Elnagar, Mohsen S. Pourkiaei, Deepak Amaripadath, and Shady Attia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3039–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, 2022
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This data set provides historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) weather data for 12 cities in Belgium. This data set is intended for architects or building or energy designers. In particular, it makes available to all users hourly open-access weather data according to certain standards to recreate a Typical and an Extreme Meteorological Year. In addition, it provides hourly data on heatwaves from 1980 to 2100. Weather data were produced from the outputs of the MAR model simulations.
Matthew K. Laffin, Charles S. Zender, Melchior van Wessem, and Sebastián Marinsek
The Cryosphere, 16, 1369–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1369-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1369-2022, 2022
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The collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) occurred while the ice shelves were covered with large melt lakes, and ocean waves damaged the ice shelf fronts, triggering collapse. Observations show föhn winds were present on both ice shelves and increased surface melt and drove sea ice away from the ice front. Collapsed ice shelves experienced enhanced surface melt driven by föhn winds, whereas extant ice shelves are affected less by föhn-wind-induced melt.
Sara Bacer, Fatima Jomaa, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Enzo Le Bouëdec, Martin Ménégoz, and Chantal Staquet
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 377–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-377-2022, 2022
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We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe. We focus on the frequency, duration, and size of blocking events. The blocking events are identified via the weather type decomposition methodology. We find that blocking frequency, duration, and size are mostly stationary over the 21st century. Additionally, we compare the blocking size results with the size of the blocking events identified via a different approach using a blocking index.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Nicolaj Hansen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Andrew Orr, Niels Souverijns, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 16, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Peter A. Tuckett, Jeremy C. Ely, Andrew J. Sole, James M. Lea, Stephen J. Livingstone, Julie M. Jones, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 15, 5785–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5785-2021, 2021
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Lakes form on the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the summer. These lakes can generate further melt, break up floating ice shelves and alter ice dynamics. Here, we describe a new automated method for mapping surface lakes and apply our technique to the Amery Ice Shelf between 2005 and 2020. Lake area is highly variable between years, driven by large-scale climate patterns. This technique will help us understand the role of Antarctic surface lakes in our warming world.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Florent Veillon, Marie Dumont, Charles Amory, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7329–7343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, 2021
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In climate models, the snow albedo scheme generally calculates only a narrowband or broadband albedo. Therefore, we have developed the VALHALLA method to optimize snow spectral albedo calculations through the determination of spectrally fixed radiative variables. The development of VALHALLA v1.0 with the use of the snow albedo model TARTES and the spectral irradiance model SBDART indicates a considerable reduction in calculation time while maintaining an adequate accuracy of albedo values.
Karen E. Alley, Christian T. Wild, Adrian Luckman, Ted A. Scambos, Martin Truffer, Erin C. Pettit, Atsuhiro Muto, Bruce Wallin, Marin Klinger, Tyler Sutterley, Sarah F. Child, Cyrus Hulen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Michelle Maclennan, Eric Keenan, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 15, 5187–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, 2021
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We present a 20-year, satellite-based record of velocity and thickness change on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the largest remaining floating extension of Thwaites Glacier (TG). TG holds the single greatest control on sea-level rise over the next few centuries, so it is important to understand changes on the TEIS, which controls much of TG's flow into the ocean. Our results suggest that the TEIS is progressively destabilizing and is likely to disintegrate over the next few decades.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
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Short summary
Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly...
