Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 11 Nov 2020
| 11 Nov 2020
GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet
Xavier Fettweis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
SPHERES research unit, Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Stefan Hofer
SPHERES research unit, Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Department of Geosciences, Section of Meteorology and Oceanography,
University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Uta Krebs-Kanzow
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Charles Amory
SPHERES research unit, Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Teruo Aoki
National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Japan
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Tsukuba, Japan
Constantijn J. Berends
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Andreas Born
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Jason E. Box
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Alison Delhasse
SPHERES research unit, Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Koji Fujita
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Paul Gierz
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Heiko Goelzer
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles,
Brussels, Belgium
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research, Bergen, Norway
Edward Hanna
School of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary
Health, Lincoln, UK
Akihiro Hashimoto
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Tsukuba, Japan
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Marie-Luise Kapsch
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Michalea D. King
Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center & School of Earth Sciences,
The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
Christoph Kittel
SPHERES research unit, Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Charlotte Lang
SPHERES research unit, Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Peter L. Langen
Department of Environmental Science, iClimate, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of
Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Glen E. Liston
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80528, USA
Gerrit Lohmann
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Sebastian H. Mernild
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway
Department of Environmental Sciences, Western Norway University of
Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Program, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile
Southern Danish University, The Vice-Chancellor's Office, Odense, Denmark
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Kameswarrao Modali
Regionales Rechenzentrum, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Ruth H. Mottram
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Masashi Niwano
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency,
Tsukuba, Japan
Brice Noël
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Jonathan C. Ryan
Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, RI 03112,
USA
Amy Smith
Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7ND, UK
Jan Streffing
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Marco Tedesco
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, New York,
USA
Willem Jan van de Berg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Michiel van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the
Netherlands
Leo van Kampenhout
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
David Wilton
Department of Computer Science, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DP, UK
Bert Wouters
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Geoscience & Remote Sensing, Delft University of
Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Florian Ziemen
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Tobias Zolles
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
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Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Louis Le Toumelin, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Vincent Favier, and Xavier Fettweis
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Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Stefan Hofer, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Charlotte Lang, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
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The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the ice sheet to the sea level rise. We investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings using physical and statistical downscaling of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Our results highlight a contrasting effect between the grounded ice sheet (where the SMB is projected to increase) and ice shelves (where the future SMB depends on the emission scenario).
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Brice Noël, Xavier Fettweis, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, William Colgan, Ken Kondo, Kirsty Langley, Shin Sugiyama, Dirk van As, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2811–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, 2020
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This work partitions regional climate model (RCM) runoff from the MAR and RACMO RCMs to hydrologic outlets at the ice margin and coast. Temporal resolution is daily from 1959 through 2019. Spatial grid is ~ 100 m, resolving individual streams. In addition to discharge at outlets, we also provide the streams, outlets, and basin geospatial data, as well as a script to query and access the geospatial or time series discharge data from the data files.
Kang Yang, Aleah Sommers, Lauren C. Andrews, Laurence C. Smith, Xin Lu, Xavier Fettweis, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 14, 3349–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, 2020
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This study compares hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models. Results show that these models are superior to simply using regional climate model runoff without routing, but different routing models, different-spatial-resolution DEMs, and parameterized seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks induce significant variability in diurnal moulin discharges and corresponding subglacial effective pressures.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Shujie Wang, Marco Tedesco, Patrick Alexander, Min Xu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 2687–2713, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, 2020
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Glacial algal blooms play a significant role in darkening the Greenland Ice Sheet during summertime. The dark pigments generated by glacial algae could substantially reduce the bare ice albedo and thereby enhance surface melt. We used satellite data to map the spatial distribution of glacial algae and characterized the seasonal growth pattern and interannual trends of glacial algae in southwestern Greenland. Our study is important for bridging microbial activities with ice sheet mass balance.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Marco Tedesco and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 1209–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, 2020
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Unprecedented atmospheric conditions occurring in the summer of 2019 over Greenland promoted new record or close-to-record values of mass loss. Summer of 2019 was characterized by an exceptional persistence of anticyclonic conditions that enhanced melting.
Donald A. Slater, Denis Felikson, Fiamma Straneo, Heiko Goelzer, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Xavier Fettweis, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020
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Changes in the ocean around Greenland play an important role in determining how much the ice sheet will contribute to global sea level over the coming century. However, capturing these links in models is very challenging. This paper presents a strategy enabling an ensemble of ice sheet models to feel the effect of the ocean for the first time and should therefore result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Dirk van As, Robert S. Fausto, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 957–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, 2020
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The ERA5 reanalysis of the ECMWF replaced the ERA-Interim in August 2019 and has never been evaluated over Greenland. The aim was to evaluate the performance of ERA5 to simulate the near-surface climate of the Greenland Ice sheet (GrIS) against ERA-Interim and regional climate models with the help of in situ observations from the PROMICE dataset. We also highlighted that polar regional climate models are still a useful tool to study the GrIS climate compared to ERA5.
Alison Delhasse, Edward Hanna, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-332, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Significant melting events over Greenland ice sheet related to unusual atmospheric pattern in summer, as observed this summer 2019, are still not considered by the new generation of Earth-system models (CMIP6) and therefore the projected surface melt increase of the ice sheet is likely to be underestimated if such changes persist in the next decades.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Hubert Gallée, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan D. Wille, Vincent Favier, Amine Drira, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, 2020
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Modeling the interannual variability of the surface conditions over Antarctic glaciers is important for the identification of climate trends and climate predictions and to assess models. We simulate snow accumulation and surface melting in the Amundsen sector (West Antarctica) over 1979–2017. For all the glaciers, the interannual variability of summer snow accumulation and surface melting is driven by two distinct mechanisms related to variations in the Amundsen Sea Low strength and position.
Donald A. Slater, Fiamma Straneo, Denis Felikson, Christopher M. Little, Heiko Goelzer, Xavier Fettweis, and James Holte
The Cryosphere, 13, 2489–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019
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The ocean's influence on the retreat of Greenland's tidewater glaciers is a key factor determining future sea level. By considering observations of ~200 glaciers from 1960, we find a significant relationship between retreat and melting in the ocean. Projected forwards, this relationship estimates the future evolution of Greenland's tidewater glaciers and provides a practical and empirically validated way of representing ice–ocean interaction in large-scale models used to estimate sea level rise.
Thomas J. Ballinger, Thomas L. Mote, Kyle Mattingly, Angela C. Bliss, Edward Hanna, Dirk van As, Melissa Prieto, Saeideh Gharehchahi, Xavier Fettweis, Brice Noël, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Mads H. Ribergaard, and John Cappelen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2241–2257, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2241-2019, 2019
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Arctic sea ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are melting later in the year due to a warming climate. Through analyses of weather station, climate model, and reanalysis data, physical links are evaluated between Baffin Bay open water duration and western GrIS melt conditions. We show that sub-Arctic air mass movement across this portion of the GrIS strongly influences late summer and autumn melt, while near-surface, off-ice winds inhibit westerly atmospheric heat transfer from Baffin Bay.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
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Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
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Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Coraline Wyard, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 3827–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018, 2018
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Regional climate models (RCMs) used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica depend on boundary forcing fields including sea surface conditions. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to perturbations in sea surface conditions with the RCM MAR using unchanged atmospheric conditions. Significant SMB anomalies are found for SSC perturbations in the range of CMIP5 global climate model biases.
Alison Delhasse, Xavier Fettweis, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 12, 3409–3418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018, 2018
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Since the 2000s, an atmospheric circulation change (CC) gauged by a negative summer shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation has been observed, enhancing surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Future GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) projections are based on global climate models that do not represent this CC. The model MAR has been used to show that previous estimates of these projections could have been significantly overestimated if this current circulation pattern persists.
Edward Hanna, Xavier Fettweis, and Richard J. Hall
The Cryosphere, 12, 3287–3292, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018, 2018
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The latest/recent generations of global climate models do not simulate the recent (last 30 years) increase in atmospheric high pressure over Greenland in summer but rather projects decreasing pressure.
This difference between climate models and observations raises serious questions about the ability of the models to accurately represent future changes in Greenland climate and ice-sheet mass balance. There are also likely effects on climate predictions downstream, e.g. over Europe.
Jiangjun Ran, Miren Vizcaino, Pavel Ditmar, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Twila Moon, Christian R. Steger, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, Catharina H. Reijmer, Roland Klees, Min Zhong, Lin Liu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 2981–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, 2018
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To accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry, surface mass balance, and ice discharge to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal scales. This study, for the first time, suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. We highlight its importance for understanding ice sheet mass variability
Rajashree Tri Datta, Marco Tedesco, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 2901–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, 2018
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Surface melting on the East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP) has been linked to ice shelf collapse, including the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) ice shelves. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a valuable tool to understand how wind patterns and general warming can impact the stability of ice shelves through surface melt. Here, we evaluate one such RCM (Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale) over the East AP, including the remaining Larsen C ice shelf, by comparing it to satellite and ground data.
Achim Heilig, Olaf Eisen, Michael MacFerrin, Marco Tedesco, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 1851–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, 2018
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This paper presents data on temporal changes in snow and firn, which were not available before. We present data on water infiltration in the percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet that improve our understanding of liquid water retention in snow and firn and mass transfer. We compare those findings with model simulations. It appears that simulated accumulation in terms of SWE is fairly accurate, while modeling of the individual parameters density and liquid water content is incorrect.
Amber A. Leeson, Emma Eastoe, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 1091–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018, 2018
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Future melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is predicted using regional climate models (RCMs). Here, we assess the ability of the MAR RCM to reproduce observed extreme temperature events and the melt energy produced during these times at 14 locations. We find that MAR underestimates temperatures by >0.5 °C during extreme events, which leads to an underestimate in melt energy by up to 41 %. This is potentially an artefact of the data used to drive the MAR simulation and needs to be corrected for.
Andrew J. Tedstone, Jonathan L. Bamber, Joseph M. Cook, Christopher J. Williamson, Xavier Fettweis, Andrew J. Hodson, and Martyn Tranter
The Cryosphere, 11, 2491–2506, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2491-2017, 2017
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The bare ice albedo of the south-west Greenland ice sheet varies dramatically between years. The reasons are unclear but likely involve darkening by inorganic particulates, cryoconite and ice algae. We use satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics and climate model outputs to find likely climatological controls. Outcropping particulates can explain the spatial extent of dark ice, but the darkening itself is likely due to ice algae growth controlled by meltwater and light availability.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Toby J. Benham, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Mariusz Grabiec, Francisco Navarro, Rickard Pettersson, Geir Moholdt, Christopher Nuth, Björn Sass, Kjetil Aas, Xavier Fettweis, Charlotte Lang, Thorsten Seehaus, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 11, 2003–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2003-2017, 2017
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For the large majority of glaciers and ice caps, there is no information on the thickness of the ice cover. Any attempt to predict glacier demise under climatic warming and to estimate the future contribution to sea-level rise is limited as long as the glacier thickness is not well constrained. Here, we present a two-step mass-conservation approach for mapping ice thickness. Measurements are naturally reproduced. The reliability is readily assessible from a complementary map of error estimates.
Xavier Fettweis, Jason E. Box, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Dirk van As, Horst Machguth, and Hubert Gallée
The Cryosphere, 11, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017
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This paper shows that the surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet since the end of the 1990s has been unprecedented, with respect to the last 120 years, using a regional climate model. These simulations also suggest an increase of the snowfall accumulation through the last century before a surface mass decrease in the 2000s. Such a mass gain could have impacted the ice sheet's dynamic stability and could explain the recent observed increase of the glaciers' velocity.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Horst Machguth, Stef Lhermitte, Ian Howat, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 2361–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016
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We present a 1 km resolution data set (1958–2015) of daily Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), statistically downscaled from the data of RACMO2.3 at 11 km using elevation dependence, precipitation and bare ice albedo corrections. The data set resolves Greenland narrow ablation zones and local outlet glaciers, and shows more realistic SMB patterns, owing to enhanced runoff at the ice sheet margins. An evaluation of the product against SMB measurements shows improved agreement.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, David N. Wiese, Eric Y. Larour, Michael M. Watkins, Jason E. Box, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 1965–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, 2016
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We investigate Greenland Ice Sheet mass change from 2003–2012 by comparing observations from GRACE with state-of-the-art atmospheric and ice sheet model simulations. We find that the largest discrepancies (in the northwest and southeast) are likely controlled by errors in modeled surface climate as well as ice–ocean interaction and hydrological processes (not included in the models). Models should consider such processes at monthly to seasonal resolutions in order to improve future projections.
Lora S. Koenig, Alvaro Ivanoff, Patrick M. Alexander, Joseph A. MacGregor, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Panzer, John D. Paden, Richard R. Forster, Indrani Das, Joesph R. McConnell, Marco Tedesco, Carl Leuschen, and Prasad Gogineni
The Cryosphere, 10, 1739–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, 2016
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Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Here, we quantify the net annual accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet, which comprises the largest component of surface mass balance, at a higher spatial resolution than currently available using high-resolution, airborne-radar data.
Patrick M. Alexander, Marco Tedesco, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Scott B. Luthcke, Xavier Fettweis, and Eric Larour
The Cryosphere, 10, 1259–1277, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, 2016
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We compared satellite-derived estimates of spatial and seasonal variations in Greenland Ice Sheet mass with a set of model simulations, revealing an agreement between models and satellite estimates for the ice-sheet-wide seasonal fluctuations in mass, but disagreement at finer spatial scales. The model simulations underestimate low-elevation mass loss. Improving the ability of models to capture variations and trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass is important for estimating future sea level rise.
Marco Tedesco, Sarah Doherty, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, Jeyavinoth Jeyaratnam, and Julienne Stroeve
The Cryosphere, 10, 477–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, 2016
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Summer surface albedo over Greenland decreased at a rate of 0.02 per decade between 1996 and 2012. The decrease is due to snow grain growth, the expansion of bare ice areas, and trends in light-absorbing impurities on snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ observations indicate increasing trends in impurities in the atmosphere over Greenland. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening.
M. Navari, S. A. Margulis, S. M. Bateni, M. Tedesco, P. Alexander, and X. Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 10, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, 2016
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An ensemble batch smoother was used to assess the feasibility of generating a reanalysis estimate of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass fluxes (SMF) via integrating measured ice surface temperatures with a regional climate model estimate. The results showed that assimilation of IST were able to overcome uncertainties in meteorological forcings that drive the GrIS surface processes. We showed that the proposed methodology is able to generate posterior reanalysis estimates of the SMF.
C. Agosta, X. Fettweis, and R. Datta
The Cryosphere, 9, 2311–2321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, 2015
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Estimates of the Antarctic surface mass balance with regional climate models (RCMs) require proper fields for forcing; hence we evaluate 41 CMIP5 climate models over Antarctica and include six reanalyses. Most of the models are biased compared to ERA-Interim, ACCESS1-3 being the best choice for forcing RCMs. Climate change is less sensitive to global warming than it is to the present-day simulated sea ice and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and temperature increase around Antarctica.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
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The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
C. Lang, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 945–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015, 2015
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We simulated the 21st century Svalbard SMB with the regional model MAR (RCP8.5 scenario). Melt is projected to increase gently up to 2050 and then dramatically increase, with a larger increase in the south of the archipelago. This difference is due to larger ice albedo decrease in the south causing larger increase of absorbed solar radiation. The ablation area is projected to disappear over the entire Svalbard by 2085. The SMB decrease compared to present is projected to contribute 7mm to SLR.
C. Lang, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 83–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-83-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-83-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the model MAR over 1979--2013. The mean SMB is slightly negative and the Svalbard glaciers are losing mass through surface processes (mainly precipitation and runoff), but there has been no acceleration of the surface melt, contrary to Greenland where melt records have been broken since 2006. We attributed it to a change in atmospheric circulation, resulting in northerly cold flows over Svalbard damping Arctic warming.
A. Belleflamme, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, 2015
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The 2007-2012 summertime circulation anomaly over the Arctic region (i.e. more high pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Greenland) is put in a historical perspective. While the 2007-2012 anomaly seems to be exceptional, similar circulation conditions have occurred since 1871, on the basis of five reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, ERA-20C, 20CRv2). The attribution of this anomaly (natural variability or global warming) remains debatable.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
B. Noël, X. Fettweis, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 8, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
W. Colgan, W. Abdalati, M. Citterio, B. Csatho, X. Fettweis, S. Luthcke, G. Moholdt, and M. Stober
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-537-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, T. Mote, J. Wahr, P. Alexander, J. E. Box, and B. Wouters
The Cryosphere, 7, 615–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, 2013
C. L. Vernon, J. L. Bamber, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 599–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, B. Franco, M. Tedesco, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, C. Lang, A. Belleflamme, M. Erpicum, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, 2013
B. Franco, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 7, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1-2013, 2013
Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Bert Wouters, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2900, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We produce annual maps of Antarctic surface melt volumes from 2012 to 2021 using satellite microwave data. We detect melting days from thresholds on the satellite signal and then use actual melt measurements from weather stations to convert those signals into water‑equivalent volumes. Our maps capture known melt hotspots and show slightly lower totals than climate models. This dataset supports climate and ice‑shelf studies.
Alessandro Gagliardi, Norel Rimbu, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3071, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
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This study shows that stable oxygen isotope ratios from Greenland ice cores can help identify extreme winter events in Europe. In years with a lack of the heavier oxygen isotope, we found changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe. These changes bring warmer, wetter conditions to the Norwegian coast and colder, drier conditions to southern Europe. The pattern appears in both recent and past data, staying stable over the last 400 years.
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025
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Based on a series of storm-resolving greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the AWI-CM3 model at 9 km global atmosphere and 4–25 km ocean resolution, we present new projections of regional climate change, modes of climate variability, and extreme events. The 10-year-long high-resolution simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were initialized from a coarser-resolution transient run (31 km atmosphere) which follows the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario from 1950–2100 CE.
Hu Yang, Xiaoxu Shi, Xulong Wang, Qingsong Liu, Yi Zhong, Xiaodong Liu, Youbin Sun, Yanjun Cai, Fei Liu, Gerrit Lohmann, Martin Werner, Zhimin Jian, Tainã M. L. Pinho, Hai Cheng, Lijuan Lu, Jiping Liu, Chao-Yuan Yang, Qinghua Yang, Yongyun Hu, Xing Cheng, Jingyu Zhang, and Dake Chen
Clim. Past, 21, 1263–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1263-2025, 2025
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For 1 century, the hemispheric summer insolation is proposed as a key pacemaker of astronomical climate change. However, an increasing number of geologic records reveal that the low-latitude hydrological cycle shows asynchronous precessional evolutions that are very often out of phase with the summer insolation. Here, we propose that the astronomically driven low-latitude hydrological cycle is not paced by summer insolation but by shifting perihelion.
Étienne Vignon, Nicolas Chiabrando, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Valentin Wiener, Justine Charrel, Thomas Dubos, and Christophe Genthon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2871, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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The erosion of surface snow by the wind is an important process for the Antarctic surface mass balance. This study presents the first development of a parameterisation of blowing snow for a global climate model. Simulations avec evaluated using measurements in Antarctica. Results show an overall decrease of the snow accumulation in the escarpment region of the ice sheet due to snow erosion and an increase at the coast due to blowing snow deposition and increase in precipitation.
Lutz Schirrmeister, Margret C. Fuchs, Thomas Opel, Andrei Andreev, Frank Kienast, Andrea Schneider, Larisa Nazarova, Larisa Frolova, Svetlana Kuzmina, Tatiana Kuznetsova, Vladimir Tumskoy, Heidrun Matthes, Gerrit Lohmann, Guido Grosse, Viktor Kunitsky, Hanno Meyer, Heike H. Zimmermann, Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Stuart Umbo, Sevi Modestou, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Anfisa Pismeniuk, Georg Schwamborn, Stephanie Kusch, and Sebastian Wetterich
Clim. Past, 21, 1143–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1143-2025, 2025
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Geochronological, cryolithological, paleoecological, and modeling data reconstruct the Last Interglacial (LIG) climate around the New Siberian Islands and reveal significantly warmer conditions compared to today. The critical challenges in predicting future ecosystem responses lie in the fact that the land–ocean distribution during the LIG was markedly different from today, affecting the degree of continentality, which played a major role in modulating climate and ecosystem dynamics.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Chloë Marie Paice, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Huybrechts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2465, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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To study the interactions between the Greenland ice sheet and the atmosphere, we coupled an ice sheet model to a regional climate model and performed simulations of differing coupling complexity over 1000 years. They reveal that at first melt at the ice sheet margin is reduced by changing wind patterns. But over time, as the ice sheet surface lowers, precipitation patterns and cloudiness also change and amplify ice mass loss over the entire ice sheet.
Thirza Feenstra, Miren Vizcaino, Bert Wouters, Michele Petrini, Raymond Sellevold, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
The Cryosphere, 19, 2289–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2289-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2289-2025, 2025
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We present the first evaluation of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and climate feedbacks with a CMIP model. Under 4×CO2 forcing, lower elevations reduce GrIS summer blocking and incoming solar radiation and increase precipitation. Simulated increases of near-surface summer temperature are much lower than the 6 K km-1 lapse rate that is commonly used in non-coupled simulations. CO2 reduction to pre-industrial (PI) halts GrIS mass loss regardless of higher global warming and albedo than PI control.
Sofie Hedetoft, Olivia Bang Brinck, Ruth Mottram, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Steffen Malskær Olsen, Martin Olesen, Nicolaj Hansen, Anders Anker Bjørk, Erik Loebel, Anne Solgaard, and Peter Thejll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1907, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Iceberg mélange is the jumble of icebergs in front of some glaciers that calve into the sea. Some studies suggest mélange might help to control the retreat of glaciers. We studied 3 glaciers in NW Greenland where we used GPS sensors and satellites to track ice movement. We found that glaciers push forward and calve all year, including when mélange and landfast sea ice are present, suggesting mélange is not important in supporting glaciers, but may influence the seasonal calving cycle.
Matthias O. Willen, Bert Wouters, Taco Broerse, Eric Buchta, and Veit Helm
The Cryosphere, 19, 2213–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2213-2025, 2025
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Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment is likely in the near future. Vertical uplift of bedrock due to glacial isostatic adjustment stabilizes the ice sheet and may delay its collapse. So far, only spatially and temporally sparse GPS measurements have been able to observe this bedrock motion. We have combined satellite data and quantified a region-wide bedrock motion that independently matches GPS measurements. This can improve ice sheet predictions.
Tanja Denager, Jesper Riis Christiansen, Raphael Johannes Maria Schneider, Peter L. Langen, Thea Quistgaard, and Simon Stisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2503, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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This study demonstrates that incorporating both temperature and temporal variability in water level in emission models significantly influences CO2 emission from peat soil. Especially the co-occurrence of elevated air temperature and low groundwater table significantly influence CO2 emissions under scenarios of rewetting and climate change.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 21, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, 2025
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Glacial cycle duration changed from 41 000 to 100 000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation and simple ice–climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate for warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Zhao Wei, Shohei Hattori, Asuka Tsuruta, Zhuang Jiang, Sakiko Ishino, Koji Fujita, Sumito Matoba, Lei Geng, Alexis Lamothe, Ryu Uemura, Naohiro Yoshida, Joel Savarino, and Yoshinori Iizuka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 5727–5742, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5727-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-5727-2025, 2025
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Nitrate isotope records in ice cores reveal changes in NOₓ emissions and atmospheric oxidation chemistry driven by human activity. However, UV-driven postdepositional processes can alter nitrate in snow, making snow accumulation rates critical for preserving these records. This study examines nitrate isotopes in a southeastern Greenland ice core, where high snow accumulation minimizes these effects, providing a reliable archive of atmospheric nitrogen cycling.
Ken Kondo and Koji Fujita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1893, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Increased river runoff due to ice melt in Greenland contributes to sea-level rise and flooding in coastal settlements. We reconstructed glacier runoff in northwestern Greenland from 1950 to 2023. The long-term modelling revealed recent increase in the glacier runoff owing to circulation changes over Greenland, characterized by moisture and heat transport to the north. Our study illustrated a significant impact of atmospheric variability on Greenlandic glaciers and local communities.
Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326, 2025
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for about 25 % of the poleward ocean heat transport. Currently, the AMOC strength is mostly calculated in depth space (z-AMOC). However, we argue that, in warmer climates, the AMOC should be calculated in density space (ρ-AMOC). We performed simulations with CO2 forcing of 280 ppmv (PI) and 1120 ppmv of (4xCO2) and find that ρ-AMOC provides more physical and meaningful information about the AMOC in warmer climates.
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2192, 2025
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We present a method to better simulate how Greenland’s ice sheet may change over thousands of years in response to climate change. Using a stand-alone ice sheet model, we adjust snowfall and melting patterns based on changes in the ice sheet’s shape. This approach avoids complex coupled models and enables faster testing of many future scenarios to understand the long-term stability of Greenland’s ice.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anne Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940, 2025
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The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Nicole A. Loeb, Alex Crawford, Brice Noël, and Julienne Stroeve
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-995, 2025
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This study examines how extreme precipitation days affect the seasonal mass balance (SMB) of land ice in Greenland and the Eastern Canadian Arctic in historical and future simulations. Past extreme precipitation led to higher SMB with snowfall. As temperatures rise, extreme precipitation may lead to the loss of ice mass as more extreme precipitation falls as rain rather than snow. Across the region, extreme precipitation becomes more important to seasonal SMB in the future, warmer climate.
Sjur Barndon, Robert Law, Andreas Born, Thomas Chudley, and Stefanie Brechtelsbauer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1304, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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By simulating a section of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet over a deep fjord, we aim to understand the behaviour of ice sheets over rough landscapes. For perpendicular flow, we find reduced speed within the fjord and reverse flow at its base. Comparing real and smoothed topography shows that low-resolution models fail to capture these effects. Our findings have implications for Greenland ice sheet models, as commonly used bedrock resolutions likely overlook the influence of similar rough landscapes.
Chetankumar Jalihal and Uwe Mikolajewicz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1734, 2025
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Differences in surface albedo and large-scale circulation are often considered to drive the contrasts between monsoons and deserts. However, using a radiation-circulation framework, we find that large-scale circulation serves primarily as a trigger for this contrast. It is the radiative feedbacks from water vapor and clouds, rather than surface albedo, that amplify the contrast between these climates.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
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A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-88, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This paper describes the 154 station-years of in situ measurements from the 19 IMAU automatic weather stations that operated on the Antarctic ice sheet between 1995 and 2022. These stations also recorded all four components of net surface radiation and surface height change, which allows for the quantification of the surface energy-and-mass balance at hourly resolution. This data is invaluable for the evaluation of weather and climate models, and for the detection of climatological changes.
Naoko Nagatsuka, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Kana Nagashima, Koji Fujita, Yuki Komuro, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Jun Ogata, Kaori Fukuda, Yoshimi Ogawa-Tsukagawa, Kyotaro Kitamura, Ayaka Yonekura, Fumio Nakazawa, Yukihiko Onuma, Naoyuki Kurita, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Giulia Sinnl, Trevor James Popp, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1522, 2025
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We present the first continuous records of dust size, composition, and temporal variations in potential sources from the northeastern Greenland ice core (EGRIP) over the past 100 years. Using a multi-proxy provenance approach based on individual particle analysis, we identify the primary dust sources as the Asian (Gobi) and African (Sahara) deserts. Our findings show shifts in their contributions since the 1970s–1980s, highlighting the effectiveness of this approach during low dust periods.
Kristiina Verro, Cecilia Äijälä, Roberta Pirazzini, Ruzica Dadic, Damien Maure, Willem Jan van de Berg, Giacomo Traversa, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Petteri Uotila, Xavier Fettweis, Biagio Di Mauro, and Milla Johansson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-386, 2025
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A realistic representation of Antarctic sea ice is crucial for accurate climate and ocean model predictions. We assessed how different models capture the sunlight reflectivity, snow cover, and ice thickness. Most performed well under mild weather conditions, but overestimated snow/ice reflectivity during cold, with patchy/thin snow conditions. High-resolution satellite imagery revealed spatial albedo variability that models failed to replicate.
Robert Law, Andreas Born, Philipp Voigt, Joseph A. MacGregor, and Claire Marie Guimond
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.18779, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.18779, 2025
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Convection has been previously, yet contentiously, suggested for ice sheets, but never before comprehensively explored using numerical models. We use mantle dynamics code to test the hypothesis that convection gives rise to enigmatic plume-like features observed in radio-stratigraphy observations of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Our results provide very good agreement with field observations, but could imply that ice in northern Greenland is significantly softer than commonly thought.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Cécile Agosta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1419, 2025
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We analyse 4 projections of winter surface winds in Antarctica. On the continent, projected changes in wind speed by 2100 reveal opposing trends depending on the area and model. Nevertheless, models agree on a strengthening of surface winds in Adélie Land for example and a weakening in some coastal areas. Lastly, we attribute strengthening of near-surface winds to changes in the large-sale atmospheric circulation and weakening of near-surface to changes in the structure of the lower atmosphere.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Clemens Schannwell, Katharina D. Six, Florian A. Ziemen, Meike Bagge, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Olga Erokhina, Veronika Gayler, Volker Klemann, Virna L. Meccia, Anne Mouchet, and Thomas Riddick
Clim. Past, 21, 719–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-719-2025, 2025
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A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet–solid-earth model was applied to simulate the time from the Last Glacial Maximum (about 25 000 years before the present) to the pre-industrial period. The model simulations are compared to observational estimates. During this climate transition, the model simulates several abrupt changes in the North Atlantic region, which are initiated by different processes. The underlying mechanisms are analysed and described.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
René R. Wijngaard, Willem Jan van de Berg, Christaan T. van Dalum, Adam R. Herrington, and Xavier J. Levine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1070, 2025
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We used the variable-resolution CESM to simulate present-day and future temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic by applying global grids (~111 km) with and without regional refinement (~28 km) and following a storyline approach. We found that global grids with (without) regional refinement generally perform better in simulating present-day precipitation (temperature) extremes, and that future high (low) temperature and wet precipitation extremes are projected to increase (decrease).
Ann-Sofie P. Zinck, Bert Wouters, Franka Jesse, and Stef Lhermitte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-573, 2025
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Ocean-driven basal melting of ice shelves can carve channels into the ice shelf base. These channels represent potential weak areas of the ice shelf. On George VI Ice shelf we discover a new channel which onset coincides with the 2015 El-Nino Southern Oscillation event. Since the channel has developed rapidly and is located within a highly channelized area close to the ice shelf front it poses a potential thread of ice shelf retreat.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, and Johanna Beckmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709, 2025
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This study explores how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) responds to different levels of stabilized global warming, and if the climate cools back. Our findings show that global temperature increases beyond +2.3 °C mark a critical threshold. We also highlight the importance of limiting warming to avoid irreversible ice loss, as well as the potential for recovery after temporarily exceeding warming thresholds if action is taken quickly to lower global temperatures.
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 19, 1205–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, 2025
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Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet significantly contributes to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities globally. To improve future sea-level projections, we simulated ice sheet behavior until 2100, initializing the model with observed geometry and using various climate models. Predictions indicate a sea-level rise of 32 to 228 mm by 2100, with climate model uncertainty being the main source of variability in projections.
Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025
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Using a comprehensive set of simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model, we disentangle and quantify the impacts of a disintegrated Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on the global climate, including the deep ocean. We find most of the climate response is driven by Greenland’s lower elevation and enhanced by changed surface properties, although regional differences exist. Despite the confinement of most responses to the Arctic, the GrIS also influences remote climates.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, 2025
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Ice sheet models to simulate future sea level rise require parameterizations, like for the friction at the bedrock. Studies have quantified the effect of using different parameterizations, and some have concluded that projections are sensitive to the choice of the specific parameterization. In this study, we show that you can make an ice sheet model sensitive to the basal friction parameterization, and that for equally defendable modellers choices you can also make the model insensitive to this.
Ida Haven, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Laura J. Dietrich, Sonja Wahl, Jason E. Box, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, Alun Hubbard, Stephan T. Kral, Joachim Reuder, and Maurice Van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, 2025
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Three independent Eddy-Covariance measurement systems deployed on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet are compared. Using this dataset, we evaluate the reproducibility and quantify the differences between the systems. The fidelity of two regional climate models in capturing the seasonal variability in the latent and sensible heat flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere is assessed. We identify differences between observations and model simulations, especially during the winter period.
Elisa Ziegler, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lauren Gregoire, Ruza Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Christian Wirths, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 627–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-627-2025, 2025
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During the Last Deglaciation, global surface temperature rose by about 4–7 °C over several millennia. We show that changes in year-to-year up to century-to-century fluctuations of temperature and precipitation during the Deglaciation were mostly larger than during either the preceding or succeeding more stable periods in 15 climate model simulations. The analysis demonstrates how ice sheets, meltwater, and volcanism influence simulated variability to inform future simulation protocols.
Emily Glen, Amber Leeson, Alison F. Banwell, Jennifer Maddalena, Diarmuid Corr, Olivia Atkins, Brice Noël, and Malcolm McMillan
The Cryosphere, 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, 2025
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We compare surface meltwater features from optical satellite imagery in the Russell–Leverett glacier catchment during high (2019) and low (2018) melt years. In the high melt year, features appear at higher elevations, meltwater systems are more connected, small lakes are more frequent, and slush is more widespread. These findings provide insights into how a warming climate, where high melt years become common, could alter meltwater distribution and dynamics on the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, 2025
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Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Sindhu Vudayagiri, Bo Vinther, Johannes Freitag, Peter L. Langen, and Thomas Blunier
Clim. Past, 21, 517–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-517-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-517-2025, 2025
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Air trapped in polar ice during snowfall reflects atmospheric pressure at the time of occlusion, serving as a proxy for elevation. However, melting, firn structure changes, and air pressure variability complicate this relationship. We measured total air content (TAC) in the RECAP ice core from Renland ice cap, eastern Greenland, spanning 121 000 years. Melt layers and short-term TAC variations, whose origins remain unclear, present challenges in interpreting elevation changes.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
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The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan Lenaerts, Kristine M. Larson, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 19, 713–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, 2025
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Traditionally, glaciologists use global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) to measure the surface elevation and velocity of glaciers to understand processes associated with ice flow. Using the interference of GNSS signals that bounce off of the ice sheet surface, we measure the surface height change near GNSS receivers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). From surface height change, we infer daily accumulation rates that we use to understand the drivers of extreme precipitation in the ASE.
Jeremy Rohmer, Heiko Goelzer, Tamsin Edwards, Goneri Le Cozannet, and Gael Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-52, 2025
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Developing robust protocols to design multi-model ensembles is of primary importance for the uncertainty quantification of sea level projections. Here, we set up a series of computer experiments to reflect design decisions for the prediction of future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet. We show the importance of including the most extreme climate scenario, and the benefit of having diversity in numerical models for ice sheet modelling and regional climate assessments.
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-472, 2025
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The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 545–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, 2025
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In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a dataset of 712 Holocene water level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, events with a lower density are given a higher weight. Additionally, we found that the performance of especially convolutional neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Wee Wei Khoo, Juliane Müller, Oliver Esper, Wenshen Xiao, Christian Stepanek, Paul Gierz, Gerrit Lohmann, Walter Geibert, Jens Hefter, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 21, 299–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-299-2025, 2025
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Using a multiproxy approach, we analyzed biomarkers and diatom assemblages from a marine sediment core from the Powell Basin, Weddell Sea. The results reveal the first continuous coastal Antarctic sea ice record since the Last Penultimate Glacial. Our findings contribute valuable insights into past glacial–interglacial sea ice responses to a changing climate and enhance our understanding of ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and dynamics.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, 2025
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We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss, not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3785, 2025
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We add a new dynamic component – an ice sheet model simulating the Greenland ice sheet – to an Earth system model that already captures the global climate evolution including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. Under a strong warming scenario, the global warming of 10 °C over 250 yrs is dominating the climate evolution. Changes from the ice-climate interaction are mainly local yet impacting the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet. Hence, ice-climate feedbacks should be considered beyond 2100.
Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Yoshimi Ogawa-Tsukagawa, Kaori Fukuda, Koji Fujita, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Remi Dallmayr, Jun Ogata, Nobuhiro Moteki, Tatsuhiro Mori, Sho Ohata, Yutaka Kondo, Makoto Koike, Sumito Matoba, Moe Kadota, Akane Tsushima, Naoko Nagatsuka, and Teruo Aoki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 657–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-657-2025, 2025
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Monthly ice core records spanning 350 years from Greenland show trends in refractory black carbon (rBC) concentrations and sizes. rBC levels have increased since the 1870s due to the inflow of anthropogenic rBC, with larger diameters than those from biomass burning (BB) rBC. High summer BB rBC peaks may reduce the ice sheet albedo, but BB rBC showed no increase until the early 2000s. These results are vital for validating aerosol and climate models.
Jonathan Ortved Melcher, Sune Halkjær, Peter Ditlevsen, Peter L. Langen, Guido Vettoretti, and Sune Olander Rasmussen
Clim. Past, 21, 115–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-115-2025, 2025
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We introduce a new model that simulates Dansgaard–Oeschger events, dramatic and irregular climate shifts within past ice ages. The model consists of simplified equations inspired by ocean current dynamics. We fine-tune this model to capture the Dansgaard–Oeschger events with unprecedented accuracy, providing deeper insights into past climate patterns. This helps us understand and predict complex climate changes, aiding future climate change resilience efforts.
Anneke Louise Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, 2025
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Freshwater enters Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge dominates freshwater input into fjords in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are most significant. Seasonally resolved data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the total freshwater influx, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Zhengwen Yan, Jiangjun Ran, Pavel Ditmar, C. K. Shum, Roland Klees, Patrick Smith, and Xavier Fettweis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-512, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has greatly improved our understanding of changes in Earth's gravity field over time. A novel mass concentration (mascon) dataset, GCL-Mascon2024, was determined by leveraging the short-arc approach, advanced spatial constraints, frequency-dependent noise processing strategy, and parameterization integrating natural boundaries, which aims to enhance accuracy for monitoring mass transportation on Earth.
Thomas Rackow, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Milinski, Irina Sandu, Razvan Aguridan, Peter Bechtold, Sebastian Beyer, Jean Bidlot, Souhail Boussetta, Willem Deconinck, Michail Diamantakis, Peter Dueben, Emanuel Dutra, Richard Forbes, Rohit Ghosh, Helge F. Goessling, Ioan Hadade, Jan Hegewald, Thomas Jung, Sarah Keeley, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Aleksei Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Josh Kousal, Christian Kühnlein, Pedro Maciel, Kristian Mogensen, Tiago Quintino, Inna Polichtchouk, Balthasar Reuter, Domokos Sármány, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Steffen Tietsche, Mirco Valentini, Benoît Vannière, Nils Wedi, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Florian Ziemen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 33–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-33-2025, 2025
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Detailed global climate model simulations have been created based on a numerical weather prediction model, offering more accurate spatial detail down to the scale of individual cities ("kilometre-scale") and a better understanding of climate phenomena such as atmospheric storms, whirls in the ocean, and cracks in sea ice. The new model aims to provide globally consistent information on local climate change with greater precision, benefiting environmental planning and local impact modelling.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, 2025
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In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially, but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature and wind speed compare well with in-situ and remote sensing observations.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
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Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Thi-Khanh-Dieu Hoang, Aurélien Quiquet, Christophe Dumas, Andreas Born, and Didier M. Roche
Clim. Past, 21, 27–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-27-2025, 2025
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To improve the simulation of surface mass balance (SMB) that influences the advance–retreat of ice sheets, we run a snow model, the BErgen Snow SImulator (BESSI), with transient climate forcing obtained from an Earth system model, iLOVECLIM, over Greenland and Antarctica during the Last Interglacial (LIG; 130–116 ka). Compared to the simple existing SMB scheme of iLOVECLIM, BESSI gives more details about SMB processes with higher physics constraints while maintaining a low computational cost.
Heiko Goelzer, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, Stefan Hofer, Konstanze Haubner, Michele Petrini, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, 2025
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On the backdrop of observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss over the last few decades, there is growing interest in the role of ice sheet changes in global climate projections. In this regard, we have coupled an Earth system model with an ice sheet model and have produced an initial set of climate projections including an interactive coupling with a dynamic Greenland ice sheet.
Oriol Tintó Prims, Robert Redl, Marc Rautenhaus, Tobias Selz, Takumi Matsunobu, Kameswar Rao Modali, and George Craig
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8909–8925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8909-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8909-2024, 2024
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Advanced compression techniques can drastically reduce the size of meteorological datasets (by 5 to 150 times) without compromising the data's scientific value. We developed a user-friendly tool called
enstools-compressionthat makes this compression simple for Earth scientists. This tool works seamlessly with common weather and climate data formats. Our work shows that lossy compression can significantly improve how researchers store and analyze large meteorological datasets.
Constantijn J. Berends
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3610, 2024
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Computer models of ice sheets solve mathematical equations describing the physics of flowing ice. While observations from satellites or other sources can be used to check if these equations describe the ice sheet correctly, one must first ensure the model solves the equations correctly. I here present a small extension to a previously derived solution on paper to one of those equations, so that modellers can verify their models.
Polona Itkin and Glen E. Liston
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3402, 2024
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The MOSAiC project provided a year of observations of Arctic snow and sea ice, though some data were interrupted, especially during summer melt onset. We developed a data-model fusion system to produce continuous, high-resolution time series of snow and sea ice parameters. On all three analyzed three ice types snow redistribution correlated with sea ice deformation and level ice thickness was governed by the thinnest fraction of snow cover.
Thomas J. Ballinger, Kent Moore, Qinghua Ding, Amy H. Butler, James E. Overland, Richard L. Thoman, Ian Baxter, Zhe Li, and Edward Hanna
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1473–1488, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1473-2024, 2024
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This study chronicles the meteorological conditions that led to the anomalous, tandem March 2023 ice melt event in the Labrador and Bering seas. A sudden stratospheric warming event initiated the development of an anticyclonic circulation pattern over the Greenland–Labrador region, while the La Niña background state supported ridging conditions over Alaska, both of which aided northward transport of warm, moist air and drove the concurrent sea ice melt extremes.
Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot
The Cryosphere, 18, 5519–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, 2024
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Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Remi Dallmayr, Yoshimi Ogawa-Tsukagawa, Nobuhiro Moteki, Tatsuhiro Mori, Sho Ohata, Yutaka Kondo, Makoto Koike, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Jun Ogata, Kyotaro Kitamura, Kenji Kawamura, Koji Fujita, Sumito Matoba, Naoko Nagatsuka, Akane Tsushima, Kaori Fukuda, and Teruo Aoki
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 12985–13000, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-12985-2024, 2024
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We developed a continuous flow analysis system to analyze an ice core from northwestern Greenland and coupled it with an improved refractory black carbon (rBC) measurement technique. This allowed accurate high-resolution analyses of size distributions and concentrations of rBC particles with diameters of 70 nm–4 μm for the past 350 years. Our results provide crucial insights into rBC's climatic effects. We also found previous ice core studies substantially underestimated rBC mass concentrations.
Weiran Li, Stef Lhermitte, Bert Wouters, Cornelis Slobbe, Max Brils, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3251, 2024
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Due to the melt events in recent decades, the snow condition over Greenland has been changed. To observe this, we use a parameter (leading edge width; LeW) derived from satellite altimetry, and analyse its spatial and temporal variations. By comparing the LeW variations with modelled firn parameters, we concluded that the 2012 melt event has a long-lasting impact on the volume scattering of Greenland firn. This impact cannot fully recover due to the recent and more frequent melt events.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
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The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Srinidhi Gadde and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 18, 4933–4953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, 2024
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Blowing-snow sublimation is the major loss term in the mass balance of Antarctica. In this study we update the blowing-snow representation in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). With the updates, results compare well with observations from East Antarctica. Also, the continent-wide variation of blowing snow compares well with satellite observations. Hence, the updates provide a clear step forward in producing a physically sound and reliable estimate of the mass balance of Antarctica.
Caroline Jacoba van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, 2024
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The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 18, 4831–4844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4831-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4831-2024, 2024
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The Greenland ice sheet largely depends on the climate state. The uncertainties associated with the year-to-year variability have only a marginal impact on our simulated surface mass budget; this increases our confidence in projections and reconstructions. Basing the simulations on proxies, e.g., temperature, results in overestimates of the surface mass balance, as climatologies lead to small amounts of snowfall every day. This can be reduced by including sub-monthly precipitation variability.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Julius Sommer, Maaike Izeboud, Sophie de Roda Husman, Bert Wouters, and Stef Lhermitte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3105, 2024
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Ice shelves, the floating extensions of Antarctica’s ice sheet, play a crucial role in preventing mass ice loss, and understanding their stability is crucial. If surface meltwater lakes drain rapidly through fractures, the ice shelf can destabilize. We analyzed satellite images of three years from the Shackleton Ice Shelf and found that lake drainages occurred in areas where damage is present and developing, and coincided with rising tides, offering insights into the drivers of this process.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, 2024
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firn, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcings datasets. Our findings suggest that under low emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, under a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
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Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Robert G. Bingham, Julien A. Bodart, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Ailsa Chung, Rebecca J. Sanderson, Johannes C. R. Sutter, Olaf Eisen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Joseph A. MacGregor, Neil Ross, Duncan A. Young, David W. Ashmore, Andreas Born, Winnie Chu, Xiangbin Cui, Reinhard Drews, Steven Franke, Vikram Goel, John W. Goodge, A. Clara J. Henry, Antoine Hermant, Benjamin H. Hills, Nicholas Holschuh, Michelle R. Koutnik, Gwendolyn J.-M. C. Leysinger Vieli, Emma J. Mackie, Elisa Mantelli, Carlos Martín, Felix S. L. Ng, Falk M. Oraschewski, Felipe Napoleoni, Frédéric Parrenin, Sergey V. Popov, Therese Rieckh, Rebecca Schlegel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Xueyuan Tang, Thomas O. Teisberg, Kate Winter, Shuai Yan, Harry Davis, Christine F. Dow, Tyler J. Fudge, Tom A. Jordan, Bernd Kulessa, Kenichi Matsuoka, Clara J. Nyqvist, Maryam Rahnemoonfar, Matthew R. Siegfried, Shivangini Singh, Verjan Višnjević, Rodrigo Zamora, and Alexandra Zuhr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2593, 2024
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The ice sheets covering Antarctica have built up over millenia through successive snowfall events which become buried and preserved as internal surfaces of equal age detectable with ice-penetrating radar. This paper describes an international initiative to work together on this archival data to build a comprehensive 3-D picture of how old the ice is everywhere across Antarctica, and how this will be used to reconstruct past and predict future ice and climate behaviour.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, 2024
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
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We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Yugeng Chen, Pengyang Song, Xianyao Chen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 20, 2001–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2001-2024, 2024
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Our study examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a period with higher tidal dissipation. Despite increased tidal mixing, our model simulations show that the AMOC remained relatively shallow, consistent with paleoproxy data and resolving previous inconsistencies between proxy data and model simulations. This research highlights the importance of strong ocean stratification during the LGM and its interaction with tidal mixing.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
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During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Katharina D. Six, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past, 20, 1785–1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1785-2024, 2024
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We use a physical and biogeochemical ocean model of the Mediterranean Sea to obtain a picture of the Last Glacial Maximum. The shallowing of the Strait of Gibraltar leads to a shallower pycnocline and more efficient nutrient export. Consistent with the sediment data, an increase in organic matter deposition is simulated, although this is based on lower biological production. This unexpected but plausible result resolves the apparent contradiction between planktonic and benthic proxy data.
Ryo Inoue, Teruo Aoki, Shuji Fujita, Shun Tsutaki, Hideaki Motoyama, Fumio Nakazawa, and Kenji Kawamura
The Cryosphere, 18, 3513–3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3513-2024, 2024
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We measured the snow specific surface area (SSA) at ~2150 surfaces between the coast near Syowa Station and Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, in summer 2021–2022. The observed SSA shows no elevation dependence between 15 and 500 km from the coast and increases toward the dome area beyond the range. SSA varies depending on surface morphologies and meteorological events. The spatial variation of SSA can be explained by snow metamorphism, snowfall frequency, and wind-driven inhibition of snow deposition.
Orie Sasaki, Evan Stewart Miles, Francesca Pellicciotti, Akiko Sakai, and Koji Fujita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2026, 2024
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This study proposes a new method to detect snowline altitude (SLA) using the Google Earth Engine platform with high-resolution satellite imagery, applicable anywhere in the world. Applying this method to five glaciated watersheds in the Himalayas reveals regional consistencies and differences in snow dynamics. We also investigate the primary controls of these dynamics by analyzing climatic factors and topographic characteristics.
Mikkel Langgaard Lauritzen, Anne Munck Solgaard, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Aslak Grindsted, Brice Noël, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, 2024
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We study the Holocene period, which started about 11,700 years ago, through 841 computer simulations to better understand the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We accurately match historical surface elevation records, verifying our model. The simulations show that an ice bridge that used to connect the Greenland ice sheet to Canada collapsed around 4,900 years ago and still influences the ice sheet. Over the past 500 years, the Greenland ice sheet has contributed 12 millimeters to sea levels.
Nicolaj Hansen, Andrew Orr, Xun Zou, Fredrik Boberg, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Ella Gilbert, Peter L. Langen, Matthew A. Lazzara, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Ruth Price, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Stuart Webster
The Cryosphere, 18, 2897–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, 2024
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We investigated a melt event over the Ross Ice Shelf. We use regional climate models and a firn model to simulate the melt and compare the results with satellite data. We find that the firn model aligned well with observed melt days in certain parts of the ice shelf. The firn model had challenges accurately simulating the melt extent in the western sector. We identified potential reasons for these discrepancies, pointing to limitations in the models related to representing the cloud properties.
Xueyu Zhang, Lin Liu, Brice Noël, and Zhicai Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1726, 2024
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This study indicates that the overall characteristics of the upper firn density in the percolation zone could be captured by the choice of appropriate model configurations and climatic forcing, which is necessary for understanding the current mass balance of the GrIS and predicting its future. The modelled firn density in this study generally aligns well with observations from 16 cores, with the relative bias in density ranging from 0.36 % to 6 % at Dye-2 and being within ±5 % at KAN_U.
Anna Puggaard, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Nagler, Stefan Scheiblauer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Louise S. Sørensen, Jan Wuite, and Anne M. Solgaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, 2024
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Regional climate models are currently the only source for assessing the melt volume on a global scale of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study compares the modeled melt volume with observations from weather stations and melt extent observed from ASCAT to assess the performance of the models. It highlights the importance of critically evaluating model outputs with high-quality satellite measurements to improve the understanding of variability among models.
Ross Mower, Ethan D. Gutmann, Glen E. Liston, Jessica Lundquist, and Soren Rasmussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4135–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4135-2024, 2024
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Higher-resolution model simulations are better at capturing winter snowpack changes across space and time. However, increasing resolution also increases the computational requirements. This work provides an overview of changes made to a distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to allow it to leverage high-performance computing resources. Continental simulations that were previously estimated to take 120 d can now be performed in 5 h.
Xiaofeng Wang, Lu An, Peter L. Langen, and Rongxing Li
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-1-2024, 691–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-2024-691-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-1-2024-691-2024, 2024
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere, 18, 2239–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, 2024
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Coastal surface winds in Antarctica are amongst the strongest winds on Earth. They are either driven by the cooling of the surface air mass by the ice sheet (katabatic) or by large-scale pressure systems. Here we compute the relative contribution of these drivers. We find that seasonal variations in the wind speed come from the katabatic acceleration, but, at a 3-hourly timescale, none of the large-scale or katabatic accelerations can be considered as the main driver.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Ruth Mottram, Anne Munck Solgaard, Joachim Mathiesen, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 1947–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, 2024
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Ice fracture can cause glacier crevassing and calving. These natural hazards can also modulate the flow and evolution of ice sheets. In a new study, we use a new high-resolution dataset to determine a new failure criterion for glacier ice. Surprisingly, the strength of ice depends on the mode of deformation, and this has potential implications for the currently used flow law of ice.
Lars Ackermann, Thomas Rackow, Kai Himstedt, Paul Gierz, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3279–3301, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3279-2024, 2024
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We present long-term simulations with interactive icebergs in the Southern Ocean. By melting, icebergs reduce the temperature and salinity of the surrounding ocean. In our simulations, we find that this cooling effect of iceberg melting is not limited to the surface ocean but also reaches the deep ocean and propagates northward into all ocean basins. Additionally, the formation of deep-water masses in the Southern Ocean is enhanced.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
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The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
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Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Gustav Jungdal-Olesen, Jane Lund Andersen, Andreas Born, and Vivi Kathrine Pedersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1517–1532, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024, 2024
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We explore how the shape of the land and underwater features in Scandinavia affected the former Scandinavian ice sheet over time. Using a computer model, we simulate how the ice sheet evolved during different stages of landscape development. We discovered that early glaciations were limited in size by underwater landforms, but as these changed, the ice sheet expanded more rapidly. Our findings highlight the importance of considering landscape changes when studying ice-sheet history.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
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The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Xueyu Zhang, Lin Liu, Brice Noël, and Zhicai Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-122, 2024
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In this study, an improved firn densification model is developed by integrating the Bucket scheme and Darcy’s law to assess the capillary retention, refreezing, and runoff of liquid water within the firn layer. This model captures high-density peaks (~917 kg · m-3) or the features of high-density layers caused by the refreezing of liquid water. In general, the modelled firn depth-density profiles at KAN_U and Dye-2 agree well with the in situ measurements.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
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The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
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Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Ryo Inoue, Shuji Fujita, Kenji Kawamura, Ikumi Oyabu, Fumio Nakazawa, Hideaki Motoyama, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 18, 425–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-425-2024, 2024
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We measured the density, microstructural anisotropy, and specific surface area (SSA) of six firn cores collected within 60 km of Dome Fuji, Antarctica. We found a lack of significant density increase, development of vertically elongated microstructures, and a rapid decrease in SSA in the top few meters due to the metamorphism driven by water vapor transport under a temperature gradient. We highlight the significant spatial variability in the properties, which depends on the accumulation rate.
Wenwen Li, Chia-Yu Hsu, and Marco Tedesco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2831, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
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This review paper fills a knowledge gap in comprehensive literature review at the junction of AI-Arctic sea ice research. We provide a fine-grained review of AI applications in a variety of sea ice research domains. Based on these analyses, we point out exciting opportunities where the Arctic sea ice community can continue benefiting from cutting-edge AI. These future research directions will foster the continuous growth of the Arctic sea ice–AI research community.
Laura J. Dietrich, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, 2024
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The contribution of the humidity flux to the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is uncertain. Here, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR using a multi-annual dataset of eddy covariance measurements and bulk estimates of the humidity flux. The humidity flux largely contributes to the summer surface mass balance (SMB) in the accumulation zone, indicating its potential importance for the annual SMB in a warming climate.
Aymeric P. M. Servettaz, Cécile Agosta, Christoph Kittel, and Anaïs J. Orsi
The Cryosphere, 17, 5373–5389, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, 2023
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It has been previously observed in polar regions that the atmospheric temperature is warmer during precipitation events. Here, we use a regional atmospheric model to quantify the temperature changes associated with snowfall events across Antarctica. We show that more intense snowfall is statistically associated with a warmer temperature anomaly compared to the seasonal average, with the largest anomalies seen in winter. This bias may affect water isotopes in ice cores deposited during snowfall.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 2551–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, 2023
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We investigated the different boundary conditions to allow ice sheet growth and ice sheet decline of the Antarctic ice sheet when it appeared ∼38–34 Myr ago. The thresholds for ice sheet growth and decline differ because of the different climatological conditions above an ice sheet (higher elevation and higher albedo) compared to a bare topography. We found that the ice–albedo feedback and the isostasy feedback respectively ease and delay the transition from a deglacial to glacial state.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Vigan Mensah, Koji Fujita, Stephen Howell, Miho Ikeda, Mizuki Komatsu, and Kay I. Ohshima
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2492, 2023
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We estimated the volume of freshwater released by sea ice, glaciers, rivers, and precipitation into Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, and their changes over the past 70 years. We found that the freshwater volume has risen in Baffin Bay due to increased glacier melting, and dropped in the Labrador Sea because of the decline in sea ice production. We also infer that freshwater from the Arctic Ocean has been exported to our study region for the past 30 years, possibly as a result of global warming.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 5131–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, 2023
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We compare components of the surface energy balance from two datasets, ERA5 and ERA-Interim, which can be used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). ERA5 differs significantly from ERA-Interim, especially in the melt regions with lower temperatures and stronger shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS SMB from ERA-Interim need to be carefully recalibrated before conversion to ERA5 forcing.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Jason E. Box, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, Nicolas Bayou, William T. Colgan, Nicolas J. Cullen, Robert S. Fausto, Dominik Haas-Artho, Achim Heilig, Derek A. Houtz, Penelope How, Ionut Iosifescu Enescu, Nanna B. Karlsson, Rebecca Kurup Buchholz, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Daniel McGrath, Noah P. Molotch, Bianca Perren, Maiken K. Revheim, Anja Rutishauser, Kevin Sampson, Martin Schneebeli, Sandy Starkweather, Simon Steffen, Jeff Weber, Patrick J. Wright, Henry Jay Zwally, and Konrad Steffen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5467–5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5467-2023, 2023
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The Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) comprises stations that have been monitoring the weather on the Greenland Ice Sheet for over 30 years. These stations are being replaced by newer ones maintained by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). The historical data were reprocessed to improve their quality, and key information about the weather stations has been compiled. This augmented dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/VVXGUT (Steffen et al., 2022).
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving southern high latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 changes and AMOC changes are the primary drivers of the major warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The multi-model analysis highlights the model’s sensitivity of CO2, AMOC to meltwater, and the meltwater history on temperature changes in southern high latitudes.
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
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We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Motoshi Nishimura, Teruo Aoki, Masashi Niwano, Sumito Matoba, Tomonori Tanikawa, Tetsuhide Yamasaki, Satoru Yamaguchi, and Koji Fujita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5207–5226, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5207-2023, 2023
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We presented the method of data quality checks and the dataset for two ground weather observations in northwest Greenland. We found that the warm and clear weather conditions in the 2015, 2019, and 2020 summers caused the snowmelt and the decline in surface reflectance of solar radiation at a low-elevated site (SIGMA-B; 944 m), but those were not seen at the high-elevated site (SIGMA-A; 1490 m). We hope that our data management method and findings will help climate scientists.
Jordi Bolibar, Facundo Sapienza, Fabien Maussion, Redouane Lguensat, Bert Wouters, and Fernando Pérez
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6671–6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023, 2023
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We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.
Damien Maure, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Alison Delhasse, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4645–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Studies have already shown that Greenland and the Canadian Arctic are experiencing a record increase in melting rates, while Svalbard has been relatively less impacted. Looking at those regions but also extending the study to Iceland and the Russian Arctic archipelagoes, we see a heterogeneity in the melting-rate response to the Arctic warming, with the Russian archipelagoes experiencing lower melting rates than other regions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Hu Yang, Roberta D'Agostino, Jiping Liu, Chaoyuan Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 19, 2157–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2157-2023, 2023
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) marks the most recent extremely cold and dry time period of our planet. Using AWI-ESM, we quantify the relative importance of Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHG) and ice sheets (IS) in determining the LGM climate. Our results suggest that both GHG and IS play important roles in shaping the LGM temperature. Continental ice sheets exert a major control on precipitation, atmospheric dynamics, and the intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
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We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4463–4485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4463-2023, 2023
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We modelled the historical and future evolution of six ice masses in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, with a 3D ice-flow model under the newest climate scenarios. We show that in all scenarios the ice masses retreat significantly but with large differences. It is highlighted that, because the main precipitation occurs in spring and summer, the ice masses respond to climate change with an accelerating retreat. In all scenarios, the total runoff peaks before 2050, with a (drastic) decrease afterwards.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Ryan Love, Lev Tarasov, Heather Andres, Alan Condron, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2225, 2023
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Freshwater injection into bands across the North Atlantic are a mainstay of climate modelling when investigating topics such as climate change or the role of glacial runoff in the glacial climate system. However, this approach is unrealistic and results in a systematic bias in the climate response to a given flux of freshwater. We evaluate the magnitude of this bias by comparison to two other approaches for introducing freshwater into a coupled climate model setup for glacial conditions.
Lander Van Tricht, Chloë Marie Paice, Oleg Rybak, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 17, 4315–4323, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4315-2023, 2023
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We performed a field campaign to measure the ice thickness of the Grigoriev ice cap (Central Asia). We interpolated the ice thickness data to obtain an ice thickness distribution representing the state of the ice cap in 2021, with a total volume of ca. 0.4 km3. We then compared our results with global ice thickness datasets composed without our local measurements. The main takeaway is that these datasets do not perform well enough yet for ice caps such as the Grigoriev ice cap.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
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We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Lena G. Buth, Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Sophie de Roda Husman, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Bert Wouters
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, 2023
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
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The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Xiaoxu Shi, Alexandre Cauquoin, Gerrit Lohmann, Lukas Jonkers, Qiang Wang, Hu Yang, Yuchen Sun, and Martin Werner
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5153–5178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5153-2023, 2023
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We developed a new climate model with isotopic capabilities and simulated the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene periods. Despite certain regional model biases, the modeled isotope composition is in good agreement with observations and reconstructions. Based on our analyses, the observed isotope–temperature relationship in polar regions may have a summertime bias. Using daily model outputs, we developed a novel isotope-based approach to determine the onset date of the West African summer monsoon.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
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Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck, Bert Wouters, Erwin Lambert, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 17, 3785–3801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, 2023
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The ice shelves in Antarctica are melting from below, which puts their stability at risk. Therefore, it is important to observe how much and where they are melting. In this study we use high-resolution satellite imagery to derive 50 m resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf. With the high resolution of our product we are able to uncover small-scale features which may in the future help us to understand the state and fate of the Antarctic ice shelves and their (in)stability.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
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We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Naoko Nagatsuka, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Koji Fujita, Yuki Komuro, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Jun Ogata, Kaori Fukuda, Yoshimi Ogawa-Tsukagawa, Kyotaro Kitamura, Ayaka Yonekura, Fumio Nakazawa, Yukihiko Onuma, Naoyuki Kurita, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Giulia Sinnl, Trevor James Popp, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1666, 2023
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We present a new high-temporal-resolution record of mineral composition in a northeastern Greenland ice-core (EGRIP) over the past 100 years. The ice core dust composition and its variation differed significantly from a northwestern Greenland ice core, which is likely due to differences in the geological sources of the dust. Our results suggest that the EGRIP ice core dust was constantly supplied from Northern Eurasia, North America, and Asia with minor contribution from Greenland coast.
Fanny Brun, Owen King, Marion Réveillet, Charles Amory, Anton Planchot, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Marie Dumont, Christoph Mayer, Silvan Leinss, Romain Hugonnet, and Patrick Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 17, 3251–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, 2023
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The South Col Glacier is a small body of ice and snow located on the southern ridge of Mt. Everest. A recent study proposed that South Col Glacier is rapidly losing mass. In this study, we examined the glacier thickness change for the period 1984–2017 and found no thickness change. To reconcile these results, we investigate wind erosion and surface energy and mass balance and find that melt is unlikely a dominant process, contrary to previous findings.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, 2023
Preprint archived
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Our study reveals how a decline in autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas leads to severe winters in Europe. Using observational data, we illustrate that Arctic sea ice loss isn't just a local issue – it impacts harsh winter conditions globally. Current climate models struggle to reflect these effects accurately, indicating a need for more research. Gaining a more nuanced understanding of this relationship will enhance our climate predictions and preparation for future extremes.
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Daniel Farinotti, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-87, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Detailed 3D models can be applied for well-studied glaciers, whereas simplified approaches are used for regional/global assessments. We conducted a comparison of six Tien Shan glaciers employing different models and investigated the impact of in-situ measurements. Our results reveal that the choice of mass balance and ice flow model as well as calibration have minimal impact on the projected volume. The initial ice thickness exerts the greatest influence on the future remaining ice volume.
Nicolaj Hansen, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Giorgio Spada, Daniele Melini, Rene Forsberg, Ruth Mottram, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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We use ICESat-2 to estimate the surface elevation change over Greenland and Antarctica in the period of 2018 to 2021. Numerical models have been used the compute the firn compaction and the vertical bedrock movement so non-mass-related elevation changes can be taken into account. We have made a parameterization of the surface density so we can convert the volume change to mass change. We find that Antarctica has lost 135.7±27.3 Gt per year, and the Greenland ice sheet 237.5±14.0 Gt per year.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Bjørg Risebrobakken, Mari F. Jensen, Helene R. Langehaug, Tor Eldevik, Anne Britt Sandø, Camille Li, Andreas Born, Erin Louise McClymont, Ulrich Salzmann, and Stijn De Schepper
Clim. Past, 19, 1101–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1101-2023, 2023
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In the observational period, spatially coherent sea surface temperatures characterize the northern North Atlantic at multidecadal timescales. We show that spatially non-coherent temperature patterns are seen both in further projections and a past warm climate period with a CO2 level comparable to the future low-emission scenario. Buoyancy forcing is shown to be important for northern North Atlantic temperature patterns.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Felix Pithan, Marylou Athanase, Sandro Dahlke, Antonio Sánchez-Benítez, Matthew D. Shupe, Anne Sledd, Jan Streffing, Gunilla Svensson, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1857–1873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, 2023
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Evaluating climate models usually requires long observational time series, but we present a method that also works for short field campaigns. We compare climate model output to observations from the MOSAiC expedition in the central Arctic Ocean. All models show how the arrival of a warm air mass warms the Arctic in April 2020, but two models do not show the response of snow temperature to the diurnal cycle. One model has too little liquid water and too much ice in clouds during cold days.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
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We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Ikumi Oyabu, Kenji Kawamura, Shuji Fujita, Ryo Inoue, Hideaki Motoyama, Kotaro Fukui, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Yu Hoshina, Naoyuki Kurita, Fumio Nakazawa, Hiroshi Ohno, Konosuke Sugiura, Toshitaka Suzuki, Shun Tsutaki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masashi Niwano, Frédéric Parrenin, Fuyuki Saito, and Masakazu Yoshimori
Clim. Past, 19, 293–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-293-2023, 2023
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We reconstructed accumulation rate around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, over the last 5000 years from 15 shallow ice cores and seven snow pits. We found a long-term decreasing trend in the preindustrial period, which may be associated with secular surface cooling and sea ice expansion. Centennial-scale variations were also found, which may partly be related to combinations of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas forcings. The most rapid and intense increases of accumulation rate occurred since 1850 CE.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Clemens Schannwell, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, and Marie-Luise Kapsch
Clim. Past, 19, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, 2023
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Heinrich-type ice-sheet surges are recurring events over the course of the last glacial cycle during which large numbers of icebergs are discharged from the Laurentide ice sheet into the ocean. These events alter the evolution of the global climate. Here, we use model simulations of the Laurentide ice sheet to identify and quantify the importance of various climate and ice-sheet parameters for the simulated surge cycle.
Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Xavier Fettweis, Oluwanisola Ibikunle, Carl Leuschen, John Paden, Daniel Gomez-Garcia, and Emily Arnold
The Cryosphere, 17, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, 2023
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Alaskan glaciers' loss of ice mass contributes significantly to ocean surface rise. It is important to know how deeply and how much snow accumulates on these glaciers to comprehend and analyze the glacial mass loss process. We reported the observed seasonal snow depth distribution from our radar data taken in Alaska in 2018 and 2021, developed a method to estimate the annual snow accumulation rate at Mt. Wrangell caldera, and identified transition zones from wet-snow zones to ablation zones.
Pengyang Song, Dmitry Sidorenko, Patrick Scholz, Maik Thomas, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 383–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-383-2023, 2023
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Tides have essential effects on the ocean and climate. Most previous research applies parameterised tidal mixing to discuss their effects in models. By comparing the effect of a tidal mixing parameterisation and tidal forcing on the ocean state, we assess the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. Our results show that tidal mixing in the North Pacific Ocean strongly affects the global thermohaline circulation. We also list some effects that are not considered in the parameterisation.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
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We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
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To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
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We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
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We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
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Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
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Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
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Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Jan Streffing, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, Patrick Scholz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Nikolay Koldunov, Thomas Rackow, Joakim Kjellsson, Helge Goessling, Marylou Athanase, Qiang Wang, Jan Hegewald, Dmitry V. Sein, Longjiang Mu, Uwe Fladrich, Dirk Barbi, Paul Gierz, Sergey Danilov, Stephan Juricke, Gerrit Lohmann, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6399–6427, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6399-2022, 2022
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We developed a new atmosphere–ocean coupled climate model, AWI-CM3. Our model is significantly more computationally efficient than its predecessors AWI-CM1 and AWI-CM2. We show that the model, although cheaper to run, provides results of similar quality when modeling the historic period from 1850 to 2014. We identify the remaining weaknesses to outline future work. Finally we preview an improved simulation where the reduction in computational cost has to be invested in higher model resolution.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Sébastien Doutreloup, Xavier Fettweis, Ramin Rahif, Essam Elnagar, Mohsen S. Pourkiaei, Deepak Amaripadath, and Shady Attia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3039–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, 2022
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This data set provides historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) weather data for 12 cities in Belgium. This data set is intended for architects or building or energy designers. In particular, it makes available to all users hourly open-access weather data according to certain standards to recreate a Typical and an Extreme Meteorological Year. In addition, it provides hourly data on heatwaves from 1980 to 2100. Weather data were produced from the outputs of the MAR model simulations.
Yota Sato, Koji Fujita, Hiroshi Inoue, Akiko Sakai, and Karma
The Cryosphere, 16, 2643–2654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2643-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2643-2022, 2022
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We investigate fluctuations in Bhutanese lake-terminating glaciers focusing on the dynamics change before and after proglacial lake formation at Thorthormi Glacier (TG) based on photogrammetry, satellite, and GPS surveys. The thinning rate of TG became double compared to before proglacial lake formation, and the flow velocity has also sped up considerably. Those changes would be due to the reduction in longitudinal ice compression by the detachment of the glacier terminus from the end moraine.
Bas Altena, Andreas Kääb, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 16, 2285–2300, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2285-2022, 2022
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Repeat overflights of satellites are used to estimate surface displacements. However, such products lack a simple error description for individual measurements, but variation in precision occurs, since the calculation is based on the similarity of texture. Fortunately, variation in precision manifests itself in the correlation peak, which is used for the displacement calculation. This spread is used to make a connection to measurement precision, which can be of great use for model inversion.
F. Dahle, J. Tanke, B. Wouters, and R. Lindenbergh
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., V-2-2022, 237–244, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2022-237-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-V-2-2022-237-2022, 2022
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Ryan A. Green, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Xavier Crosta, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 18, 845–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-845-2022, 2022
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Climate models are used to predict future climate changes and as such, it is important to assess their performance in simulating past climate changes. We analyze seasonal sea-ice cover over the Southern Ocean simulated from numerical PMIP3, PMIP4 and LOVECLIM simulations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Comparing these simulations to proxy data, we provide improved estimates of LGM seasonal sea-ice cover. Our estimate of summer sea-ice extent is 20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
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To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Sebastian Hinck, Evan J. Gowan, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 941–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-941-2022, 2022
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Proglacial lakes were pervasive along the retreating continental ice margins after the Last Glacial Maximum. Similarly to the marine ice boundary, interactions at the ice-lake interface impact ice sheet dynamics and mass balance. Previous numerical ice sheet modeling studies did not include a dynamical lake boundary. We describe the implementation of an adaptive lake boundary condition in PISM and apply the model to the glacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
Justus Contzen, Thorsten Dickhaus, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1803–1820, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1803-2022, 2022
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Climate models are of paramount importance to predict future climate changes. Since many severe consequences of climate change are due to extreme events, the accurate behaviour of models in terms of extremes needs to be validated thoroughly. We present a method for model validation in terms of climate extremes and an algorithm to detect regions in which extremes tend to occur at the same time. These methods are applied to data from different climate models and to observational data.
Nicolaj Hansen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Andrew Orr, Niels Souverijns, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 16, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
Katharina Dorothea Six and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, 2022
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We developed a global ocean biogeochemical model with a zoom on the Benguela upwelling system. We show that the high spatial resolution is necessary to capture long-term trends of oxygen of the recent past. The regional anthropogenic carbon uptake over the last century is lower than compared to a coarser resolution ocean model as used in Earth system models. This suggests that, at least for some regions, the changes projected by these Earth system models are associated with high uncertainty.
Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, 2022
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Vapor pressure deficit is a key component of vegetation dynamics, soil science, meteorology, and soil science. In this study, we reconstruct the variability of the vapor pressure deficit in the past and examine the changes in future scenarios using climate models. In this way, past, present and future changes of the vapor pressure deficit can be detected locally, regionally, and continentally with higher statistical significance.
Katharina M. Holube, Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, 2022
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We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Stephan Krätschmer, Michèlle van der Does, Frank Lamy, Gerrit Lohmann, Christoph Völker, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 18, 67–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-67-2022, 2022
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We use an atmospheric model coupled to an aerosol model to investigate the global mineral dust cycle with a focus on the Southern Hemisphere for warmer and colder climate states and compare our results to observational data. Our findings suggest that Australia is the predominant source of dust deposited over Antarctica during the last glacial maximum. In addition, we find that the southward transport of dust from all sources to Antarctica happens at lower altitudes in colder climates.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, 2022
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Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change in the surface mass balance for Antarctica is 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3), and for Greenland it is −290 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Maria Zeitz, Ronja Reese, Johanna Beckmann, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5739–5764, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, 2021
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With the increasing melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, the surface of the ice darkens. The dark surfaces absorb more radiation and thus experience increased melt, resulting in the melt–albedo feedback. Using a simple surface melt model, we estimate that this positive feedback contributes to an additional 60 % ice loss in a high-warming scenario and additional 90 % ice loss for moderate warming. Albedo changes are important for Greenland’s future ice loss.
Martin Wegmann, Yvan Orsolini, Antje Weisheimer, Bart van den Hurk, and Gerrit Lohmann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021, 2021
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Northern Hemisphere winter weather is influenced by the strength of westerly winds 30 km above the surface, the so-called polar vortex. Eurasian autumn snow cover is thought to modulate the polar vortex. So far, however, the modeled influence of snow on the polar vortex did not fit the observed influence. By analyzing a model experiment for the time span of 110 years, we could show that the causality of this impact is indeed sound and snow cover can weaken the polar vortex.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Jan Bouke Pronk, Tobias Bolch, Owen King, Bert Wouters, and Douglas I. Benn
The Cryosphere, 15, 5577–5599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5577-2021, 2021
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About 10 % of Himalayan glaciers flow directly into lakes. This study finds, using satellite imagery, that such glaciers show higher flow velocities than glaciers without ice–lake contact. In particular near the glacier tongue the impact of a lake on the glacier flow can be dramatic. The development of current and new meltwater bodies will influence the flow of an increasing number of Himalayan glaciers in the future, a scenario not currently considered in regional ice loss projections.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
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We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
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Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
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In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Florent Veillon, Marie Dumont, Charles Amory, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7329–7343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, 2021
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In climate models, the snow albedo scheme generally calculates only a narrowband or broadband albedo. Therefore, we have developed the VALHALLA method to optimize snow spectral albedo calculations through the determination of spectrally fixed radiative variables. The development of VALHALLA v1.0 with the use of the snow albedo model TARTES and the spectral irradiance model SBDART indicates a considerable reduction in calculation time while maintaining an adequate accuracy of albedo values.
Karen E. Alley, Christian T. Wild, Adrian Luckman, Ted A. Scambos, Martin Truffer, Erin C. Pettit, Atsuhiro Muto, Bruce Wallin, Marin Klinger, Tyler Sutterley, Sarah F. Child, Cyrus Hulen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Michelle Maclennan, Eric Keenan, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 15, 5187–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, 2021
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We present a 20-year, satellite-based record of velocity and thickness change on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the largest remaining floating extension of Thwaites Glacier (TG). TG holds the single greatest control on sea-level rise over the next few centuries, so it is important to understand changes on the TEIS, which controls much of TG's flow into the ocean. Our results suggest that the TEIS is progressively destabilizing and is likely to disintegrate over the next few decades.
Rajashree Tri Datta and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 15, 5115–5132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5115-2021, 2021
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The ICESat-2 laser altimeter can detect the surface and bottom of a supraglacial lake. We introduce the Watta algorithm, automatically calculating lake surface, corrected bottom, and (sub-)surface ice at high resolution adapting to signal strength. ICESat-2 depths constrain full lake depths of 46 lakes over Jakobshavn glacier using multiple sources of imagery, including very high-resolution Planet imagery, used for the first time to extract supraglacial lake depths empirically using ICESat-2.
Nele Lamping, Juliane Müller, Jens Hefter, Gesine Mollenhauer, Christian Haas, Xiaoxu Shi, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Gerrit Lohmann, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 17, 2305–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2305-2021, 2021
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We analysed biomarker concentrations on surface sediment samples from the Antarctic continental margin. Highly branched isoprenoids and GDGTs are used for reconstructing recent sea-ice distribution patterns and ocean temperatures respectively. We compared our biomarker-based results with data obtained from satellite observations and estimated from a numerical model and find reasonable agreements. Further, we address caveats and provide recommendations for future investigations.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
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Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Saeid Bagheri Dastgerdi, Melanie Behrens, Jean-Louis Bonne, Maria Hörhold, Gerrit Lohmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 15, 4745–4767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4745-2021, 2021
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In this study, for the first time, water vapour isotope measurements in Antarctica for all seasons of a year are performed. Local temperature is identified as the main driver of δ18O and δD variability. A similar slope of the temperature–δ18O relationship in vapour and surface snow points to the water vapour isotope content as a potential key driver. This dataset can be used as a new dataset to evaluate the capability of isotope-enhanced climate models.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
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Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Marcel Meyer, Iuliia Polkova, Kameswar Rao Modali, Laura Schaffer, Johanna Baehr, Stephan Olbrich, and Marc Rautenhaus
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 867–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-867-2021, 2021
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Novel techniques from computer science are used to study extreme weather events. Inspired by the interactive 3-D visual analysis of the recently released ERA5 reanalysis data, we improve commonly used metrics for measuring polar winter storms and outbreaks of cold air. The software (Met.3D) that we have extended and applied as part of this study is freely available and can be used generically for 3-D visualization of a broad variety of atmospheric processes in weather and climate data.
Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts, Jonas Van Breedam, Alexander Vanhulle, Kristof Van Oost, and Harry Zekollari
The Cryosphere, 15, 4445–4464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4445-2021, 2021
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We conducted innovative research on the use of drones to determine the surface mass balance (SMB) of two glaciers. Considering appropriate spatial scales, we succeeded in determining the SMB in the ablation area with large accuracy. Consequently, we are convinced that our method and the use of drones to monitor the mass balance of a glacier’s ablation area can be an add-on to stake measurements in order to obtain a broader picture of the heterogeneity of the SMB of glaciers.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
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We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Nicolaj Hansen, Peter L. Langen, Fredrik Boberg, Rene Forsberg, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Peter Thejll, Baptiste Vandecrux, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 15, 4315–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021, 2021
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We have used computer models to estimate the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) from 1980 to 2017. Our estimates lies between 2473.5 ± 114.4 Gt per year and 2564.8 ± 113.7 Gt per year. To evaluate our models, we compared the modelled snow temperatures and densities to in situ measurements. We also investigated the spatial distribution of the SMB. It is very important to have estimates of the Antarctic SMB because then it is easier to understand global sea level changes.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
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The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Bjorn Stevens, Sandrine Bony, David Farrell, Felix Ament, Alan Blyth, Christopher Fairall, Johannes Karstensen, Patricia K. Quinn, Sabrina Speich, Claudia Acquistapace, Franziska Aemisegger, Anna Lea Albright, Hugo Bellenger, Eberhard Bodenschatz, Kathy-Ann Caesar, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas, Gijs de Boer, Julien Delanoë, Leif Denby, Florian Ewald, Benjamin Fildier, Marvin Forde, Geet George, Silke Gross, Martin Hagen, Andrea Hausold, Karen J. Heywood, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Friedhelm Jansen, Stefan Kinne, Daniel Klocke, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Marie Lothon, Wiebke Mohr, Ann Kristin Naumann, Louise Nuijens, Léa Olivier, Robert Pincus, Mira Pöhlker, Gilles Reverdin, Gregory Roberts, Sabrina Schnitt, Hauke Schulz, A. Pier Siebesma, Claudia Christine Stephan, Peter Sullivan, Ludovic Touzé-Peiffer, Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Paquita Zuidema, Nicola Alexander, Lyndon Alves, Sophian Arixi, Hamish Asmath, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Katharina Baier, Adriana Bailey, Dariusz Baranowski, Alexandre Baron, Sébastien Barrau, Paul A. Barrett, Frédéric Batier, Andreas Behrendt, Arne Bendinger, Florent Beucher, Sebastien Bigorre, Edmund Blades, Peter Blossey, Olivier Bock, Steven Böing, Pierre Bosser, Denis Bourras, Pascale Bouruet-Aubertot, Keith Bower, Pierre Branellec, Hubert Branger, Michal Brennek, Alan Brewer, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Björn Brügmann, Stefan A. Buehler, Elmo Burke, Ralph Burton, Radiance Calmer, Jean-Christophe Canonici, Xavier Carton, Gregory Cato Jr., Jude Andre Charles, Patrick Chazette, Yanxu Chen, Michal T. Chilinski, Thomas Choularton, Patrick Chuang, Shamal Clarke, Hugh Coe, Céline Cornet, Pierre Coutris, Fleur Couvreux, Susanne Crewell, Timothy Cronin, Zhiqiang Cui, Yannis Cuypers, Alton Daley, Gillian M. Damerell, Thibaut Dauhut, Hartwig Deneke, Jean-Philippe Desbios, Steffen Dörner, Sebastian Donner, Vincent Douet, Kyla Drushka, Marina Dütsch, André Ehrlich, Kerry Emanuel, Alexandros Emmanouilidis, Jean-Claude Etienne, Sheryl Etienne-Leblanc, Ghislain Faure, Graham Feingold, Luca Ferrero, Andreas Fix, Cyrille Flamant, Piotr Jacek Flatau, Gregory R. Foltz, Linda Forster, Iulian Furtuna, Alan Gadian, Joseph Galewsky, Martin Gallagher, Peter Gallimore, Cassandra Gaston, Chelle Gentemann, Nicolas Geyskens, Andreas Giez, John Gollop, Isabelle Gouirand, Christophe Gourbeyre, Dörte de Graaf, Geiske E. de Groot, Robert Grosz, Johannes Güttler, Manuel Gutleben, Kashawn Hall, George Harris, Kevin C. Helfer, Dean Henze, Calvert Herbert, Bruna Holanda, Antonio Ibanez-Landeta, Janet Intrieri, Suneil Iyer, Fabrice Julien, Heike Kalesse, Jan Kazil, Alexander Kellman, Abiel T. Kidane, Ulrike Kirchner, Marcus Klingebiel, Mareike Körner, Leslie Ann Kremper, Jan Kretzschmar, Ovid Krüger, Wojciech Kumala, Armin Kurz, Pierre L'Hégaret, Matthieu Labaste, Tom Lachlan-Cope, Arlene Laing, Peter Landschützer, Theresa Lang, Diego Lange, Ingo Lange, Clément Laplace, Gauke Lavik, Rémi Laxenaire, Caroline Le Bihan, Mason Leandro, Nathalie Lefevre, Marius Lena, Donald Lenschow, Qiang Li, Gary Lloyd, Sebastian Los, Niccolò Losi, Oscar Lovell, Christopher Luneau, Przemyslaw Makuch, Szymon Malinowski, Gaston Manta, Eleni Marinou, Nicholas Marsden, Sebastien Masson, Nicolas Maury, Bernhard Mayer, Margarette Mayers-Als, Christophe Mazel, Wayne McGeary, James C. McWilliams, Mario Mech, Melina Mehlmann, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni, Theresa Mieslinger, Andreas Minikin, Peter Minnett, Gregor Möller, Yanmichel Morfa Avalos, Caroline Muller, Ionela Musat, Anna Napoli, Almuth Neuberger, Christophe Noisel, David Noone, Freja Nordsiek, Jakub L. Nowak, Lothar Oswald, Douglas J. Parker, Carolyn Peck, Renaud Person, Miriam Philippi, Albert Plueddemann, Christopher Pöhlker, Veronika Pörtge, Ulrich Pöschl, Lawrence Pologne, Michał Posyniak, Marc Prange, Estefanía Quiñones Meléndez, Jule Radtke, Karim Ramage, Jens Reimann, Lionel Renault, Klaus Reus, Ashford Reyes, Joachim Ribbe, Maximilian Ringel, Markus Ritschel, Cesar B. Rocha, Nicolas Rochetin, Johannes Röttenbacher, Callum Rollo, Haley Royer, Pauline Sadoulet, Leo Saffin, Sanola Sandiford, Irina Sandu, Michael Schäfer, Vera Schemann, Imke Schirmacher, Oliver Schlenczek, Jerome Schmidt, Marcel Schröder, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Andrea Sealy, Christoph J. Senff, Ilya Serikov, Samkeyat Shohan, Elizabeth Siddle, Alexander Smirnov, Florian Späth, Branden Spooner, M. Katharina Stolla, Wojciech Szkółka, Simon P. de Szoeke, Stéphane Tarot, Eleni Tetoni, Elizabeth Thompson, Jim Thomson, Lorenzo Tomassini, Julien Totems, Alma Anna Ubele, Leonie Villiger, Jan von Arx, Thomas Wagner, Andi Walther, Ben Webber, Manfred Wendisch, Shanice Whitehall, Anton Wiltshire, Allison A. Wing, Martin Wirth, Jonathan Wiskandt, Kevin Wolf, Ludwig Worbes, Ethan Wright, Volker Wulfmeyer, Shanea Young, Chidong Zhang, Dongxiao Zhang, Florian Ziemen, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021, 2021
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The EUREC4A field campaign, designed to test hypothesized mechanisms by which clouds respond to warming and benchmark next-generation Earth-system models, is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. It was the first campaign that attempted to characterize the full range of processes and scales influencing trade wind clouds.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
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Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
Robert S. Fausto, Dirk van As, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Baptiste Vandecrux, Michele Citterio, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, William Colgan, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Niels J. Korsgaard, Signe H. Larsen, Søren Nielsen, Allan Ø. Pedersen, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, and Jason E. Box
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3819–3845, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021, 2021
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The Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) has been measuring climate and ice sheet properties since 2007. Here, we present our data product from weather and ice sheet measurements from a network of automatic weather stations mainly located in the melt area of the ice sheet. Currently the PROMICE automatic weather station network includes 25 instrumented sites in Greenland.
Xiaoxu Shi, Dirk Notz, Jiping Liu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4891–4908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4891-2021, 2021
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The ice–ocean heat flux is one of the key elements controlling sea ice changes. It motivates our study, which aims to examine the responses of modeled climate to three ice–ocean heat flux parameterizations, including two old approaches that assume one-way heat transport and a new one describing a double-diffusive ice–ocean heat exchange. The results show pronounced differences in the modeled sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere states for the latter as compared to the former two parameterizations.
Louis Le Toumelin, Charles Amory, Vincent Favier, Christoph Kittel, Stefan Hofer, Xavier Fettweis, Hubert Gallée, and Vinay Kayetha
The Cryosphere, 15, 3595–3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, 2021
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Snow is frequently eroded from the surface by the wind in Adelie Land (Antarctica) and suspended in the lower atmosphere. By performing model simulations, we show firstly that suspended snow layers interact with incoming radiation similarly to a near-surface cloud. Secondly, suspended snow modifies the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure and energy exchanges with the surface. Our results suggest snow transport by the wind should be taken into account in future model studies over the region.
Madison L. Ghiz, Ryan C. Scott, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Matthew Lazzara, and Dan Lubin
The Cryosphere, 15, 3459–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, 2021
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We investigate how melt occurs over the vulnerable ice shelves of West Antarctica and determine that the three primary mechanisms can be evaluated using archived numerical weather prediction model data and satellite imagery. We find examples of each mechanism: thermal blanketing by a warm atmosphere, radiative heating by thin clouds, and downslope winds. Our results signify the potential to make a multi-decadal assessment of atmospheric stress on West Antarctic ice shelves in a warming climate.
Thomas James Barnes, Amber Alexandra Leeson, Malcolm McMillan, Vincent Verjans, Jeremy Carter, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-214, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We find that the area covered by lakes on George VI ice shelf in 2020 is similar to that seen in other years such as 1989. However, the climate conditions are much more in favour of lakes forming. We find that it is likely that snowfall, and the build up of a surface snow layer limits the development of lakes on the surface of George VI ice shelf in 2020. We also find that in future, snowfall is predicted to decrease, and therefore this limiting effect may be reduced in future.
Ulas Im, Kostas Tsigaridis, Gregory Faluvegi, Peter L. Langen, Joshua P. French, Rashed Mahmood, Manu A. Thomas, Knut von Salzen, Daniel C. Thomas, Cynthia H. Whaley, Zbigniew Klimont, Henrik Skov, and Jørgen Brandt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10413–10438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021, 2021
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Future (2015–2050) simulations of the aerosol burdens and their radiative forcing and climate impacts over the Arctic under various emission projections show that although the Arctic aerosol burdens are projected to decrease significantly by 10 to 60 %, regardless of the magnitude of aerosol reductions, surface air temperatures will continue to increase by 1.9–2.6 ℃, while sea-ice extent will continue to decrease, implying reductions of greenhouse gases are necessary to mitigate climate change.
Dirk Barbi, Nadine Wieters, Paul Gierz, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Deniz Ural, Fatemeh Chegini, Sara Khosravi, and Luisa Cristini
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4051–4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4051-2021, 2021
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
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Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
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Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 15, 2917–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, 2021
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We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and the energy balance model of the Greenland ice sheet for the cold period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day climate. The results show that the model sensitivity changes with climate. While for present-day simulations inclusions of sublimation and hoar formation are of minor importance, they cannot be neglected during the LGM. To simulate the surface mass balance over long timescales, a water vapor scheme is necessary.
Naoko Nagatsuka, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Akane Tsushima, Koji Fujita, Sumito Matoba, Yukihiko Onuma, Remi Dallmayr, Moe Kadota, Motohiro Hirabayashi, Jun Ogata, Yoshimi Ogawa-Tsukagawa, Kyotaro Kitamura, Masahiro Minowa, Yuki Komuro, Hideaki Motoyama, and Teruo Aoki
Clim. Past, 17, 1341–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1341-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1341-2021, 2021
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Here we present a first high-temporal-resolution record of mineral composition in a Greenland ice core (SIGMA-D) over the past 100 years using SEM–EDS analysis. Our results show that the ice core dust composition varied on multi-decadal scales, which was likely affected by local temperature changes. We suggest that the ice core dust was constantly supplied from distant sources (mainly northern Canada) as well as local ice-free areas in warm periods (1915 to 1949 and 2005 to 2013).
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
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We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Bert Wouters, Jakob F. Steiner, Emile J. Nieuwstraten, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 2601–2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, 2021
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We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.
Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Louis Le Toumelin, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Vincent Favier, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3487–3510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, 2021
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This paper presents recent developments in the drifting-snow scheme of the regional climate model MAR and its application to simulate drifting snow and the surface mass balance of Adélie Land in East Antarctica. The model is extensively described and evaluated against a multi-year drifting-snow dataset and surface mass balance estimates available in the area. The model sensitivity to input parameters and improvements over a previously published version are also assessed.
Robbie D. C. Mallett, Julienne C. Stroeve, Michel Tsamados, Jack C. Landy, Rosemary Willatt, Vishnu Nandan, and Glen E. Liston
The Cryosphere, 15, 2429–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2429-2021, 2021
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We re-estimate pan-Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) values by combining data from the Envisat and CryoSat-2 missions with data from a new, reanalysis-driven snow model. Because a decreasing amount of ice is being hidden below the waterline by the weight of overlying snow, we argue that SIT may be declining faster than previously calculated in some regions. Because the snow product varies from year to year, our new SIT calculations also display much more year-to-year variability.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, Christian B. Rodehacke, Shan Xu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, 2021
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The surface mass balance scheme dEBM (diurnal Energy Balance Model) provides a novel, computationally inexpensive interface between the atmosphere and land ice for Earth system modeling. The dEBM is particularly suitable for Earth system modeling on multi-millennial timescales as it accounts for changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Colin J. Gleason, Kang Yang, Dongmei Feng, Laurence C. Smith, Kai Liu, Lincoln H. Pitcher, Vena W. Chu, Matthew G. Cooper, Brandon T. Overstreet, Asa K. Rennermalm, and Jonathan C. Ryan
The Cryosphere, 15, 2315–2331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2315-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2315-2021, 2021
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We apply first-principle hydrology models designed for global river routing to route flows hourly through 10 000 individual supraglacial channels in Greenland. Our results uniquely show the role of process controls (network density, hillslope flow, channel friction) on routed meltwater. We also confirm earlier suggestions that large channels do not dewater overnight despite the shutdown of runoff and surface mass balance runoff being mistimed and overproducing runoff, as validated in situ.
Daniel F. Balting, Monica Ionita, Martin Wegmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Norel Rimbu, Mandy B. Freund, Ingo Heinrich, Diana Caldarescu, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021
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To extend climate information back in time, we investigate the climate sensitivity of a δ18O network from tree rings, consisting of 26 European sites and covering the last 400 years. Our results suggest that the δ18O variability is associated with large-scale anomaly patterns that resemble those observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that the investigation of large-scale climate signals far beyond instrumental records can be done with a δ18O network derived from tree rings.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
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The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Mizuo Kajino, Makoto Deushi, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Naga Oshima, Keiya Yumimoto, Taichu Yasumichi Tanaka, Joseph Ching, Akihiro Hashimoto, Tetsuya Yamamoto, Masaaki Ikegami, Akane Kamada, Makoto Miyashita, Yayoi Inomata, Shin-ichiro Shima, Pradeep Khatri, Atsushi Shimizu, Hitoshi Irie, Kouji Adachi, Yuji Zaizen, Yasuhito Igarashi, Hiromasa Ueda, Takashi Maki, and Masao Mikami
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2235–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2235-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2235-2021, 2021
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This study compares performance of aerosol representation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency's regional-scale nonhydrostatic meteorology–chemistry model (NHM-Chem). It indicates separate treatment of sea salt and dust in coarse mode and that of light-absorptive and non-absorptive particles in fine mode could provide accurate assessments on aerosol feedback processes.
Matthew G. Cooper, Laurence C. Smith, Asa K. Rennermalm, Marco Tedesco, Rohi Muthyala, Sasha Z. Leidman, Samiah E. Moustafa, and Jessica V. Fayne
The Cryosphere, 15, 1931–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, 2021
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We measured sunlight transmitted into glacier ice to improve models of glacier ice melt and satellite measurements of glacier ice surfaces. We found that very small concentrations of impurities inside the ice increase absorption of sunlight, but the amount was small enough to enable an estimate of ice absorptivity. We confirmed earlier results that the absorption minimum is near 390 nm. We also found that a layer of highly reflective granular "white ice" near the surface reduces transmittance.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
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Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
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Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Sourav Chatterjee, Roshin P. Raj, Laurent Bertino, Sebastian H. Mernild, Meethale Puthukkottu Subeesh, Nuncio Murukesh, and Muthalagu Ravichandran
The Cryosphere, 15, 1307–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1307-2021, 2021
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Sea ice in the Greenland Sea (GS) is important for its climatic (fresh water), economical (shipping), and ecological contribution (light availability). The study proposes a mechanism through which sea ice concentration in GS is partly governed by the atmospheric and ocean circulation in the region. The mechanism proposed in this study can be useful for assessing the sea ice variability and its future projection in the GS.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Stefan Hofer, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Charlotte Lang, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021
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The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the ice sheet to the sea level rise. We investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings using physical and statistical downscaling of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Our results highlight a contrasting effect between the grounded ice sheet (where the SMB is projected to increase) and ice shelves (where the future SMB depends on the emission scenario).
Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian A. Ziemen, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Clemens Schannwell
The Cryosphere, 15, 1131–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1131-2021, 2021
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Marissa Dattler, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brooke Medley, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 15, 1065–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, 2021
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Snow density is required to convert observed changes in ice sheet volume into mass, which ultimately drives ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. However, snow properties respond dynamically to wind-driven redistribution. Here we include a new wind-driven snow density scheme into an existing snow model. Our results demonstrate an improved representation of snow density when compared to observations and can therefore be used to improve retrievals of ice sheet mass balance.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
J. Melchior van Wessem, Christian R. Steger, Nander Wever, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 695–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, 2021
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This study presents the first modelled estimates of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) in Antarctica. PFAs are subsurface meltwater bodies that do not refreeze in winter due to the isolating effects of the snow they are buried underneath. They were first identified in Greenland, but conditions for their existence are also present in the Antarctic Peninsula. These PFAs can have important effects on meltwater retention, ice shelf stability, and, consequently, sea level rise.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, and Mondher Chekki
The Cryosphere, 15, 571–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021
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We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
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For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Lu Zhou, Julienne Stroeve, Shiming Xu, Alek Petty, Rachel Tilling, Mai Winstrup, Philip Rostosky, Isobel R. Lawrence, Glen E. Liston, Andy Ridout, Michel Tsamados, and Vishnu Nandan
The Cryosphere, 15, 345–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-345-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-345-2021, 2021
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Snow on sea ice plays an important role in the Arctic climate system. Large spatial and temporal discrepancies among the eight snow depth products are analyzed together with their seasonal variability and long-term trends. These snow products are further compared against various ground-truth observations. More analyses on representation error of sea ice parameters are needed for systematic comparison and fusion of airborne, in situ and remote sensing observations.
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
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This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
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The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Ross Edwards, Martin Olesen, Ruth Mottram, Gabriel Lewis, Christian Terkelsen Holme, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Mikkel Schmidt, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Bo Vinther, Anders Svensson, Nanna Karlsson, Jason E. Box, Sepp Kipfstuhl, and Paul Vallelonga
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-337, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-337, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We have reconstructed accumulation in 6 firn cores and 8 snow cores in Northern Greenland and compared with a regional Climate model over Greenland. We find the model underestimate precipitation especially in north-eastern part of the ice cap- an important finding if aiming to reconstruct surface mass balance.
Temperatures at 10 meters depth at 6 sites in Greenland were also determined and show a significant warming since the 1990's of 0.9 to 2.5 °C.
Tessa Gorte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 14, 4719–4733, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, 2020
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In this paper, we analyze several spatial and temporal criteria to assess the ability of models in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks to recreate past Antarctic surface mass balance. We then compared a subset of the top performing models to all remaining models to refine future surface mass balance predictions under different forcing scenarios. We found that the top performing models predict lower surface mass balance by 2100, indicating less buffering than otherwise expected of sea level rise.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-331, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of the future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change of the surface mass balance for Antarctica is +150 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −710 Gt yr−1 (v3) and for Greenland the numbers are −210 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1150 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Maria-Elena Vorrath, Juliane Müller, Lorena Rebolledo, Paola Cárdenas, Xiaoxu Shi, Oliver Esper, Thomas Opel, Walter Geibert, Práxedes Muñoz, Christian Haas, Gerhard Kuhn, Carina B. Lange, Gerrit Lohmann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 16, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2459-2020, 2020
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We tested the applicability of the organic biomarker IPSO25 for sea ice reconstructions in the industrial era at the western Antarctic Peninsula. We successfully evaluated our data with satellite sea ice observations. The comparison with marine and ice core records revealed that sea ice interpretations must consider climatic and sea ice dynamics. Sea ice biomarker production is mainly influenced by the Southern Annular Mode, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation seems to have a minor impact.
Baojuan Huai, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Carleen H. Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 14, 4181–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, 2020
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This study presents the surface energy balance (SEB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using a SEB model forced with observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs). We correlate ERA5 with AWSs to show a significant positive correlation of GrIS summer surface temperature and melt with the Greenland Blocking Index and weaker and opposite correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation. This analysis may help explain melting patterns in the GrIS with respect to circulation anomalies.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
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The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Christian Stepanek, Eric Samakinwa, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 2275–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2275-2020, 2020
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Future climate is expected to be warmer than today. We study climate based on simulations of the mid-Pliocene (about 3 million years ago), which was a time of elevated temperatures, and discuss implications for the future. Our results are provided towards a comparison to both proxy evidence and output of other climate models. We simulate a mid-Pliocene climate that is both warmer and wetter than today. Some climate characteristics can be more directly transferred to the near future than others.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
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Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Florian Fuhrmann, Benedikt Diensberg, Xun Gong, Gerrit Lohmann, and Frank Sirocko
Clim. Past, 16, 2221–2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2221-2020, 2020
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Proxy data of sediment cores, speleothem, pollen and isotope data were used to reconstruct past aridity of eight regions of the world over the last 60 000 years. These regions show humid conditions during the early MIS3 (60 to 45 ka). Also the early Holocene (14 to 6 ka) was humid throughout the regions. In contrast, MIS2 and the LGM were arid in Northern Nemisphere records. On- and offsets of aridity/humidity differ between the regions. All this is in good agreement with recent model results.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
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We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Brice Noël, Xavier Fettweis, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, William Colgan, Ken Kondo, Kirsty Langley, Shin Sugiyama, Dirk van As, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2811–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, 2020
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This work partitions regional climate model (RCM) runoff from the MAR and RACMO RCMs to hydrologic outlets at the ice margin and coast. Temporal resolution is daily from 1959 through 2019. Spatial grid is ~ 100 m, resolving individual streams. In addition to discharge at outlets, we also provide the streams, outlets, and basin geospatial data, as well as a script to query and access the geospatial or time series discharge data from the data files.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter L. Langen, Robert S. Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Leeson, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia Miller, Clifford I. Voss, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 14, 3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020
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In the vast interior of the Greenland ice sheet, snow accumulates into a thick and porous layer called firn. Each summer, the firn retains part of the meltwater generated at the surface and buffers sea-level rise. In this study, we compare nine firn models traditionally used to quantify this retention at four sites and evaluate their performance against a set of in situ observations. We highlight limitations of certain model designs and give perspectives for future model development.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
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We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
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The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Suzanne Alice Ghislaine Leroy, Klaus Arpe, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Jing Wu
Clim. Past, 16, 2039–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2039-2020, 2020
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The biodiversity of temperate deciduous trees in eastern Asia is greater than in Europe. During the peak of the last ice age, their distribution was obtained based on pollen data literature. A climate model, after validation on the present, was used to calculate the potential distribution of such trees in the past. It shows that the shift of the tree belt was only 2° latitude to the south. Moreover, greater population connectivity was shown for the Yellow Sea and southern Himalayas.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Stef Lhermitte, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3645–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, 2020
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The reflectivity of sunlight, which is also known as albedo, is often inadequately modeled in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new snow and ice albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2. In this study, we evaluate a new RACMO2 version for the Greenland ice sheet by using observations and the previous model version. RACMO2 output compares well with observations, and by including new processes we improve the ability of RACMO2 to make future climate projections.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
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Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Kang Yang, Aleah Sommers, Lauren C. Andrews, Laurence C. Smith, Xin Lu, Xavier Fettweis, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 14, 3349–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, 2020
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This study compares hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models. Results show that these models are superior to simply using regional climate model runoff without routing, but different routing models, different-spatial-resolution DEMs, and parameterized seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks induce significant variability in diurnal moulin discharges and corresponding subglacial effective pressures.
Martin Rückamp, Heiko Goelzer, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 14, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3309-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3309-2020, 2020
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Estimates of future sea-level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet have a large uncertainty based on different origins. We conduct numerical experiments to test the sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution. Simulations with a higher resolution unveil up to 5 % more sea-level rise compared to coarser resolutions. The sensitivity depends on the magnitude of outlet glacier retreat. When no retreat is enforced, the sensitivity exhibits an inverse behaviour.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
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This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Josephine R. Brown, Chris M. Brierley, Soon-Il An, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Samantha Stevenson, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, Anni Zhao, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Deepak Chandan, Roberta D'Agostino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, Ryouta O'ishi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Xiaoxu Shi, Louise Sime, Evgeny M. Volodin, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 16, 1777–1805, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020, 2020
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of year-to-year variability in the current climate, but the response of ENSO to past or future changes in climate is uncertain. This study compares the strength and spatial pattern of ENSO in a set of climate model simulations in order to explore how ENSO changes in different climates, including past cold glacial climates and past climates with different seasonal cycles, as well as gradual and abrupt future warming cases.
Ankit Pramanik, Jack Kohler, Katrin Lindbäck, Penelope How, Ward Van Pelt, Glen Liston, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Freshwater discharge from tidewater glaciers influences fjord circulation and fjord ecosystem. Glacier hydrology plays crucial role in transporting water underneath glacier ice. We investigated hydrology beneath the tidewater glaciers of Kongsfjord basin in Northwest Svalbard and found that subglacial water flow differs substantially from surface flow of glacier ice. Furthermore, we derived freshwater discharge time-series from all the glaciers to the fjord.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, Christopher Nemeth, C. Max Stevens, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice Noël, and Jan Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 14, 3017–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, 2020
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Ice sheets are covered by a firn layer, which is the transition stage between fresh snow and ice. Accurate modelling of firn density properties is important in many glaciological aspects. Current models show disagreements, are mostly calibrated to match specific observations of firn density and lack thorough uncertainty analysis. We use a novel calibration method for firn models based on a Bayesian statistical framework, which results in improved model accuracy and in uncertainty evaluation.
Jesper Sjolte, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Raimund Muscheler, Christophe Sturm, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1737–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1737-2020, 2020
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In this study we investigate seasonal climate reconstructions produced by matching climate model output to ice core and tree-ring data, and we evaluate the model–data reconstructions against meteorological observations. The reconstructions capture the main patterns of variability in sea level pressure and temperature in summer and winter. The performance of the reconstructions depends on seasonal climate variability itself, and definitions of seasons can be optimized to capture this variability.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
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Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Shin-ichiro Shima, Yousuke Sato, Akihiro Hashimoto, and Ryohei Misumi
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4107–4157, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4107-2020, 2020
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Using the super-droplet method, we constructed a detailed numerical model of mixed-phase clouds based on kinetic description and subsequently demonstrated that a large-eddy simulation of a cumulonimbus which predicts ice particle morphology without assuming ice categories or mass–dimension relationships is possible. Our results strongly support the particle-based modeling methodology’s efficacy for simulating mixed-phase clouds.
Shujie Wang, Marco Tedesco, Patrick Alexander, Min Xu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 2687–2713, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2687-2020, 2020
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Glacial algal blooms play a significant role in darkening the Greenland Ice Sheet during summertime. The dark pigments generated by glacial algae could substantially reduce the bare ice albedo and thereby enhance surface melt. We used satellite data to map the spatial distribution of glacial algae and characterized the seasonal growth pattern and interannual trends of glacial algae in southwestern Greenland. Our study is important for bridging microbial activities with ice sheet mass balance.
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
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We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Eric Samakinwa, Christian Stepanek, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 16, 1643–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1643-2020, 2020
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Boundary conditions, forcing, and methodology for the two phases of PlioMIP differ considerably. We compare results from PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 simulations. We also carry out sensitivity experiments to infer the relative contribution of different boundary conditions to mid-Pliocene warmth. Our results show dominant effects of mid-Pliocene geography on the climate state and also that prescribing orbital forcing for different time slices within the mid-Pliocene could lead to pronounced variations.
Paul Gierz, Lars Ackermann, Christian B. Rodehacke, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian Stepanek, Dirk Barbi, and Gerrit Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-159, 2020
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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In this study, we describe the SCOPE coupler, which is used connect the ECHAM6/JSBACH/FESOM1.4 climate model to the PISM 1.1.4 ice sheet model. This system is used to simulate IPCC scenarios projected for the future, and several warm periods in the past; the mid Holocene and the Last Interglacial. Our new model allows us to simulate the ice sheet’s response to changes in the climatic conditions, providing a new avenue of investigation over the previous models, which keep the cryosphere fixed.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Jan T. M. Lenaerts, M. Drew Camron, Christopher R. Wyburn-Powell, and Jennifer E. Kay
The Cryosphere, 14, 2253–2265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, 2020
Michael Kern, Robert Cullen, Bruno Berruti, Jerome Bouffard, Tania Casal, Mark R. Drinkwater, Antonio Gabriele, Arnaud Lecuyot, Michael Ludwig, Rolv Midthassel, Ignacio Navas Traver, Tommaso Parrinello, Gerhard Ressler, Erik Andersson, Cristina Martin-Puig, Ole Andersen, Annett Bartsch, Sinead Farrell, Sara Fleury, Simon Gascoin, Amandine Guillot, Angelika Humbert, Eero Rinne, Andrew Shepherd, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and John Yackel
The Cryosphere, 14, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, 2020
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The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter will provide high-resolution sea ice thickness and land ice elevation measurements and the capability to determine the properties of snow cover on ice to serve operational products and services of direct relevance to the polar regions. This paper describes the mission objectives, identifies the key contributions the CRISTAL mission will make, and presents a concept – as far as it is already defined – for the mission payload.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
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This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Yukihiko Onuma, Nozomu Takeuchi, Sota Tanaka, Naoko Nagatsuka, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 14, 2087–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2087-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2087-2020, 2020
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Surface snow albedo is substantially reduced by organic impurities, such as microbes that live in the snow. We present the temporal changes of surface albedo, snow grain size, and inorganic and organic impurities observed on a snowpack in northwest Greenland during summer and our attempt to reproduce the changes in albedo with a physically based snow albedo model coupled with a snow algae model. To our knowledge, this is the first report proposing such a coupled albedo model in Greenland.
Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Montoya, Heiko Goelzer, Ralf Greve, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, 2020
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Here we describe Yelmo v1.0, an intuitive and state-of-the-art hybrid ice sheet model. The model design and physics are described, and benchmark simulations are provided to validate its performance. Yelmo is a versatile ice sheet model that can be applied to a wide variety of problems.
Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Lambertus H. van Ulft
The Cryosphere, 14, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1809-2020, 2020
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In times of increasing computer power, atmospheric models that estimate the surface mass balance of the Greenland can be run with increasing resolution. However, at which resolution is the error no longer determined by the lacking resolution but by model shortcomings? In this manuscript we show that for the majority of the southern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet, our study area, a model resolution of 20 km is sufficient although finer model resolutions are still beneficial.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Charles Amory
The Cryosphere, 14, 1713–1725, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1713-2020, 2020
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This paper presents an assessment of drifting-snow occurrences and snow mass transport from up to 9 years (2010–2018) of half-hourly observational records collected at two remote locations in coastal Adelie Land (East Antarctica) using second-generation IAV Engineering acoustic FlowCapt sensors. The dataset is freely available to the scientific community and can be used to complement satellite products and evaluate snow-transport models close to the surface and at high temporal frequency.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
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Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Colleen Mortimer, Lawrence Mudryk, Chris Derksen, Kari Luojus, Ross Brown, Richard Kelly, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 14, 1579–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1579-2020, 2020
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Existing stand-alone passive microwave SWE products have markedly different climatological SWE patterns compared to reanalysis-based datasets. The AMSR-E SWE has low spatial and temporal correlations with the four reanalysis-based products evaluated and GlobSnow and perform poorly in comparisons with snow transect data from Finland, Russia, and Canada. There is better agreement with in situ data when multiple SWE products, excluding the stand-alone passive microwave SWE products, are combined.
Brice Noël, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Willem Jan van de Berg, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Bert Wouters, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1425–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, 2020
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We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2; ~111 km) to force a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ~11 km), which is further refined to 1 km spatial resolution. For the first time, an Earth-system-model-based product, assimilating no observations, can reconstruct realistic historical ice sheet surface mass balance as well as the mass loss acceleration that started in the 1990s.
Adrien Gilbert, Anna Sinisalo, Tika R. Gurung, Koji Fujita, Sudan B. Maharjan, Tenzing C. Sherpa, and Takehiro Fukuda
The Cryosphere, 14, 1273–1288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1273-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1273-2020, 2020
Marco Tedesco and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 1209–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1209-2020, 2020
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Unprecedented atmospheric conditions occurring in the summer of 2019 over Greenland promoted new record or close-to-record values of mass loss. Summer of 2019 was characterized by an exceptional persistence of anticyclonic conditions that enhanced melting.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Marco Tedesco, Steven McAlpine, and Jeremy R. Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 907–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their impact on economy. Here, we show that value of property exposed to Hurricane Florence in September 2018 was USD 52 billion vs. USD 10 billion that would have occurred at the beginning of the 19th century due to urban expansion that increased after 1950s and the increasing number of houses built near water, showing the importance of accounting for the distribution of new buildings in risk and exposure.
Donald A. Slater, Denis Felikson, Fiamma Straneo, Heiko Goelzer, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Xavier Fettweis, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020
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Changes in the ocean around Greenland play an important role in determining how much the ice sheet will contribute to global sea level over the coming century. However, capturing these links in models is very challenging. This paper presents a strategy enabling an ensemble of ice sheet models to feel the effect of the ocean for the first time and should therefore result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Dirk van As, Robert S. Fausto, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 14, 957–965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-957-2020, 2020
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The ERA5 reanalysis of the ECMWF replaced the ERA-Interim in August 2019 and has never been evaluated over Greenland. The aim was to evaluate the performance of ERA5 to simulate the near-surface climate of the Greenland Ice sheet (GrIS) against ERA-Interim and regional climate models with the help of in situ observations from the PROMICE dataset. We also highlighted that polar regional climate models are still a useful tool to study the GrIS climate compared to ERA5.
Alice Barthel, Cécile Agosta, Christopher M. Little, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Helene Seroussi, Fiammetta Straneo, and Thomas J. Bracegirdle
The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020, 2020
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We compare existing coupled climate models to select a total of six models to provide forcing to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet simulations of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). We select models based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
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In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Jianjun Zou, Xuefa Shi, Aimei Zhu, Selvaraj Kandasamy, Xun Gong, Lester Lembke-Jene, Min-Te Chen, Yonghua Wu, Shulan Ge, Yanguang Liu, Xinru Xue, Gerrit Lohmann, and Ralf Tiedemann
Clim. Past, 16, 387–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-387-2020, 2020
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Large-scale reorganization of global ocean circulation has been documented in a variety of marine archives, including the enhanced North Pacific Intermediate Water NPIW. Our data support both the model- and data-based ideas that the enhanced NPIW mainly developed during cold spells, while an expansion of oxygen-poor zones occurred at warming intervals (Bölling-Alleröd).
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Xingxing Liu, Youbin Sun, Jef Vandenberghe, Peng Cheng, Xu Zhang, Evan J. Gowan, Gerrit Lohmann, and Zhisheng An
Clim. Past, 16, 315–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-315-2020, 2020
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The East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon are anticorrelated on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. The centennial monsoon variability is connected to changes of both solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events during the Early Holocene. Then, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of events during the Late Holocene. This work presents the great challenge and potential to understand the response of the monsoon system to global climate changes in the past and the future.
Andrew J. Tedstone, Joseph M. Cook, Christopher J. Williamson, Stefan Hofer, Jenine McCutcheon, Tristram Irvine-Fynn, Thomas Gribbin, and Martyn Tranter
The Cryosphere, 14, 521–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-521-2020, 2020
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Albedo describes how much light that hits a surface is reflected without being absorbed. Low-albedo ice surfaces melt more quickly. There are large differences in the albedo of bare-ice areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet. They are caused both by dark glacier algae and by the condition of the underlying ice. Changes occur over centimetres to metres, so satellites do not always detect real albedo changes. Estimates of melt made using satellite measurements therefore tend to be underestimates.
Alison Delhasse, Edward Hanna, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-332, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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Significant melting events over Greenland ice sheet related to unusual atmospheric pattern in summer, as observed this summer 2019, are still not considered by the new generation of Earth-system models (CMIP6) and therefore the projected surface melt increase of the ice sheet is likely to be underestimated if such changes persist in the next decades.
Hailong Wang, Jeremy G. Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jesse M. Nusbaumer, Hansi Singh, David Noone, Philip J. Rasch, and Rudong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, 2020
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Using a climate model with unique water source tagging, we found that sea-ice anomalies in the Southern Ocean and accompanying SST changes have a significant influence on Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution through their direct impact on moisture sources and indirect impact on moisture transport. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation.
Matthias O. Willen, Martin Horwath, Ludwig Schröder, Andreas Groh, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 349–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-349-2020, 2020
Joseph M. Cook, Andrew J. Tedstone, Christopher Williamson, Jenine McCutcheon, Andrew J. Hodson, Archana Dayal, McKenzie Skiles, Stefan Hofer, Robert Bryant, Owen McAree, Andrew McGonigle, Jonathan Ryan, Alexandre M. Anesio, Tristram D. L. Irvine-Fynn, Alun Hubbard, Edward Hanna, Mark Flanner, Sathish Mayanna, Liane G. Benning, Dirk van As, Marian Yallop, James B. McQuaid, Thomas Gribbin, and Martyn Tranter
The Cryosphere, 14, 309–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-309-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-309-2020, 2020
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Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a major source of uncertainty for sea level rise projections. Ice-darkening due to the growth of algae has been recognized as a potential accelerator of melting. This paper measures and models the algae-driven ice melting and maps the algae over the ice sheet for the first time. We estimate that as much as 13 % total runoff from the south-western GrIS can be attributed to these algae, showing that they must be included in future mass balance models.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Hubert Gallée, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan D. Wille, Vincent Favier, Amine Drira, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, 2020
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Modeling the interannual variability of the surface conditions over Antarctic glaciers is important for the identification of climate trends and climate predictions and to assess models. We simulate snow accumulation and surface melting in the Amundsen sector (West Antarctica) over 1979–2017. For all the glaciers, the interannual variability of summer snow accumulation and surface melting is driven by two distinct mechanisms related to variations in the Amundsen Sea Low strength and position.
Moritz Mathis and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Ocean Sci., 16, 167–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-167-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-167-2020, 2020
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In a strong global warming scenario, declining nutrient concentrations of Atlantic water masses flushing the NWES lead to a reduction in the biological productivity on the shelf. We show that meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet induces a change in the subpolar ocean circulation, resulting in a nutrient increase of deeper Atlantic water masses. These are mixed up at the shelf break and spread over the shelf, mitigating both the expected nutrient decline and productivity reduction.
Charles Amory and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere, 13, 3405–3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3405-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3405-2019, 2019
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Snow mass fluxes and vertical profiles of relative humidity are used to document concurrent occurrences of drifting snow and near-surface air saturation at a site dominated by katabatic winds in East Antarctica. Despite a high prevalence of drifting snow conditions, we demonstrate that saturation is reached only in the most extreme wind and transport conditions and discuss implications for the understanding of surface mass and atmospheric moisture budgets of the Antarctic ice sheet.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Quentin Libois, Ghislain Picard, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5157–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, 2019
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Climate models are often limited to relatively simple snow albedo schemes. Therefore, we have developed the SNOWBAL module to couple a climate model with a physically based wavelength dependent snow albedo model. Using SNOWBAL v1.2 to couple the snow albedo model TARTES with the regional climate model RACMO2 indicates a potential performance gain for the Greenland ice sheet.
Raymond Sellevold, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brice Noël, William H. Lipscomb, and Miren Vizcaino
The Cryosphere, 13, 3193–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, 2019
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We evaluate a downscaling method to calculate ice sheet surface mass balance with global climate models, despite their coarse resolution. We compare it with high-resolution climate modeling. Despite absence of fine-scale simulation of individual energy and mass contributors, the method provides realistic vertical SMB gradients that can be used in forcing of ice sheet models, e.g., for sea level projections. Also, the climate model simulation is improved with the method implemented interactively.
Alexandre Cauquoin, Martin Werner, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 15, 1913–1937, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1913-2019, 2019
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We present here the first model results of a newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the Earth system model MPI-ESM. Our model setup has a finer spatial resolution compared to other isotope-enabled fully coupled models. We evaluate the model for preindustrial and mid-Holocene climate conditions. Our analyses show a good to very good agreement with various isotopic data. The spatial and temporal links between isotopes and climate variables under warm climatic conditions are also analyzed.
Shun Tsutaki, Koji Fujita, Takayuki Nuimura, Akiko Sakai, Shin Sugiyama, Jiro Komori, and Phuntsho Tshering
The Cryosphere, 13, 2733–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, 2019
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We investigate thickness change of Bhutanese glaciers during 2004–2011 using repeat GPS surveys and satellite-based observations. The thinning rate of Lugge Glacier (LG) is > 3 times that of Thorthormi Glacier (TG). Numerical simulations of ice dynamics and surface mass balance (SMB) demonstrate that the rapid thinning of LG is driven by both negative SMB and dynamic thinning, while the thinning of TG is minimised by a longitudinally compressive flow regime.
Satoru Yamaguchi, Masaaki Ishizaka, Hiroki Motoyoshi, Sent Nakai, Vincent Vionnet, Teruo Aoki, Katsuya Yamashita, Akihiro Hashimoto, and Akihiro Hachikubo
The Cryosphere, 13, 2713–2732, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2713-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2713-2019, 2019
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The specific surface area (SSA) of solid precipitation particles (PPs) includes detailed information of PP. This work is based on field measurement of SSA of PPs in Nagaoka, the city with the heaviest snowfall in Japan. The values of SSA strongly depend on wind speed (WS) and wet-bulb temperature (Tw) on the ground. An equation to empirically estimate the SSA of fresh PPs with WS and Tw was established and the equation successfully reproduced the fluctuation of SSA in Nagaoka.
Tine Nilsen, Dmitry V. Divine, Annika Hofgaard, Andreas Born, Johann Jungclaus, and Igor Drobyshev
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-123, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Using a set of three climate model simulations we cannot find a consistent relationship between atmospheric conditions favorable for forest fire activity in northern Scandinavia and weaker ocean circulation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre on seasonal timescales. In the literature there is support of such a relationship for longer timescales. With the motivation to improve seasonal prediction systems, we conclude that the gyre circulation alone does not indicate forthcoming model drought.
Aku Riihelä, Michalea D. King, and Kati Anttila
The Cryosphere, 13, 2597–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2597-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2597-2019, 2019
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We used a 1982–2015 time series of satellite observations to examine changes in surface reflectivity (albedo) of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We found notable decreases in albedo over most of the ice sheet margins in July and August, particularly over the west coast and between 2000 and 2015. The results indicate that significant melt now occurs in areas 50 to 100 m higher up the ice sheet relative to the early 1980s. The albedo decrease is consistent and covarying with modelled ice sheet mass loss.
Donald A. Slater, Fiamma Straneo, Denis Felikson, Christopher M. Little, Heiko Goelzer, Xavier Fettweis, and James Holte
The Cryosphere, 13, 2489–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019, 2019
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The ocean's influence on the retreat of Greenland's tidewater glaciers is a key factor determining future sea level. By considering observations of ~200 glaciers from 1960, we find a significant relationship between retreat and melting in the ocean. Projected forwards, this relationship estimates the future evolution of Greenland's tidewater glaciers and provides a practical and empirically validated way of representing ice–ocean interaction in large-scale models used to estimate sea level rise.
Ward van Pelt, Veijo Pohjola, Rickard Pettersson, Sergey Marchenko, Jack Kohler, Bartłomiej Luks, Jon Ove Hagen, Thomas V. Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Brice Noël, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 13, 2259–2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, 2019
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The climate in Svalbard is undergoing amplified change compared to the global mean, which has a strong impact on the climatic mass balance of glaciers and the state of seasonal snow in land areas. In this study we analyze a coupled energy balance–subsurface model dataset, which provides detailed information on distributed climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff across Svalbard between 1957 and 2018.
Thomas J. Ballinger, Thomas L. Mote, Kyle Mattingly, Angela C. Bliss, Edward Hanna, Dirk van As, Melissa Prieto, Saeideh Gharehchahi, Xavier Fettweis, Brice Noël, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Mads H. Ribergaard, and John Cappelen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2241–2257, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2241-2019, 2019
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Arctic sea ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are melting later in the year due to a warming climate. Through analyses of weather station, climate model, and reanalysis data, physical links are evaluated between Baffin Bay open water duration and western GrIS melt conditions. We show that sub-Arctic air mass movement across this portion of the GrIS strongly influences late summer and autumn melt, while near-surface, off-ice winds inhibit westerly atmospheric heat transfer from Baffin Bay.
Koji Fujita, Sumito Matoba, Yoshinori Iizuka, Nozomu Takeuchi, and Teruo Aoki
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-97, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study presents a novel method for reconstructing summer temperatures from ice-layer thickness and annual accumulation in an ice core using an energy balance model. The method calculates a lookup table by considering heat conduction and meltwater refreezing in firn. We applied the method to four ice cores in different climates. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the annual temperature range, amount of annual precipitation, and firn albedo significantly affect the estimated summer temperature.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, and Sébastien Le clec'h
The Cryosphere, 13, 2133–2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2133-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2133-2019, 2019
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Meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) rises sea level and knowing how the GrIS behaved in the past will help to become better in predicting its future. Here, the evolution of the past GrIS is shown to be dominated by how much ice melts (a result of the prevailing climate) rather than how ice flow is represented in the simulations. Therefore, it is very important to know past climates accurately, in order to be able to simulate the evolution of the GrIS and its contribution to sea level.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019
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The Late Pliocene, 3.65–2.75 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history that was warmer than the present. This makes it interesting for climatological research, because it provides a possible analogue for the near future. We used a coupled ice-sheet–climate model to simulate the behaviour of these systems during this period. We show that the warmest moment saw a sea-level rise of 8–14 m, with a CO2 concentration of 320–400 ppmv.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, C. Max Stevens, Michael MacFerrin, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1819–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, 2019
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Firn models rely on empirical approaches for representing the percolation and refreezing of meltwater through the firn column. We develop liquid water schemes of different levels of complexity for firn models and compare their performances with respect to observations of density profiles from Greenland. Our results demonstrate that physically advanced water schemes do not lead to better agreement with density observations. Uncertainties in other processes contribute more to model discrepancy.
Tyler C. Sutterley, Thorsten Markus, Thomas A. Neumann, Michiel van den Broeke, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 1801–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, 2019
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Most of the Antarctic ice sheet is fringed by ice shelves, floating extensions of ice that help to modulate the flow of the glaciers that float into them. We use airborne laser altimetry data to measure changes in ice thickness of ice shelves around West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. Each of our target ice shelves is susceptible to short-term changes in ice thickness. The method developed here provides a framework for processing NASA ICESat-2 data over ice shelves.
Cécile B. Ménard, Richard Essery, Alan Barr, Paul Bartlett, Jeff Derry, Marie Dumont, Charles Fierz, Hyungjun Kim, Anna Kontu, Yves Lejeune, Danny Marks, Masashi Niwano, Mark Raleigh, Libo Wang, and Nander Wever
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 865–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-865-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-865-2019, 2019
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This paper describes long-term meteorological and evaluation datasets from 10 reference sites for use in snow modelling. We demonstrate how data sharing is crucial to the identification of errors and how the publication of these datasets contributes to good practice, consistency, and reproducibility in geosciences. The ease of use, availability, and quality of the datasets will help model developers quantify and reduce model uncertainties and errors.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, William Colgan, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Dirk van As, Jason E. Box, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Jeremie Mouginot, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 769–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-769-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-769-2019, 2019
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We have produced an open and reproducible estimate of Greenland Ice Sheet solid ice discharge from 1986 through 2017. Our results show three modes at the total ice-sheet scale: steady discharge from 1986 through 2000, increasing discharge from 2000 through 2005, and steady discharge from 2005 through 2017. The behavior of individual sectors and glaciers is more complicated. This work was done to provide a 100 % reproducible estimate to help constrain mass balance and sea-level rise estimates.
Andreas Lang and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Ocean Sci., 15, 651–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-651-2019, 2019
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Here we investigate the occurrence of extreme storm surges in the southern German Bight and their associated large-scale forcing mechanisms using climate model simulations covering the last 1000 years. We find that extreme storm surges are characterized by a large internal variability that masks potential links to external climate forcing or background sea level fluctuations; existing estimates of extreme sea levels based on short data records thus fail to account for their full variability.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
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A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Andreas Born, Michael A. Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
The Cryosphere, 13, 1529–1546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1529-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1529-2019, 2019
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We present a new numerical model to simulate the surface energy and mass balance of snow and ice. While similar models exist and cover a wide range of complexity from empirical models to those that simulate the microscopic structure of individual snow grains, we aim to strike a balance between physical completeness and numerical efficiency. This new model will enable physically accurate simulations over timescales of hundreds of millennia, a key requirement of investigating ice age cycles.
Constantijn L. Jakobs, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Gert König-Langlo, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1473–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1473-2019, 2019
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We use 24 years of observations at Neumayer Station, East Antarctica, to calculate the surface energy balance and the associated surface melt, which we find to be mainly driven by the absorption of solar radiation. Meltwater can refreeze in the subsurface snow layers, thereby decreasing the surface albedo and hence allowing for more absorption of solar radiation. By implementing an albedo parameterisation, we show that this feedback accounts for a threefold increase in surface melt at Neumayer.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
David J. Wilton, Marcus P. S. Badger, Euripides P. Kantzas, Richard D. Pancost, Paul J. Valdes, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1351–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, 2019
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas naturally produced in wetlands (areas of land inundated with water). Models of the Earth's past climate need estimates of the amounts of methane wetlands produce; and in order to calculate those we need to model wetlands. In this work we develop a method for modelling the fraction of an area of the Earth that is wetland, repeat this over all the Earth's land surface and apply this to a study of the Earth as it was around 50 million years ago.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
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Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Evan J. Gowan, Lu Niu, Gregor Knorr, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-375-2019, 2019
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The speed of ice sheet flow is largely controlled by the strength of the ice–bed interface. We present three datasets on the geological properties of regions in North America, Greenland and Iceland that were covered by Quaternary ice sheets. These include the grain size of glacial sediments, the continuity of sediment cover and bedrock geology. Simple ice modelling experiments show that altering the basal strength of the ice sheet on the basis of these datasets impacts ice thickness.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Michael MacFerrin, Horst Machguth, William T. Colgan, Dirk van As, Achim Heilig, C. Max Stevens, Charalampos Charalampidis, Robert S. Fausto, Elizabeth M. Morris, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Lora Koenig, Lynn N. Montgomery, Clément Miège, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 13, 845–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-845-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-845-2019, 2019
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The perennial snow, or firn, on the Greenland ice sheet each summer stores part of the meltwater formed at the surface, buffering the ice sheet’s contribution to sea level. We gathered observations of firn air content, indicative of the space available in the firn to retain meltwater, and find that this air content remained stable in cold regions of the firn over the last 65 years but recently decreased significantly in western Greenland.
Marilena Oltmanns, Fiammetta Straneo, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 13, 815–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-815-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-815-2019, 2019
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By combining reanalysis, weather station and satellite data, we show that increases in surface melt over Greenland are initiated by large-scale precipitation events year-round. Estimates from a regional climate model suggest that the initiated melting more than doubled between 1988 and 2012, amounting to ~28 % of the overall melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass gain, precipitation events are contributing to the ice sheet's decline.
Sauvik Santra, Shubha Verma, Koji Fujita, Indrajit Chakraborty, Olivier Boucher, Toshihiko Takemura, John F. Burkhart, Felix Matt, and Mukesh Sharma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2441–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2441-2019, 2019
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The present study provided information on specific glaciers over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region identified as being vulnerable to BC-induced impacts (affected by high BC-induced snow albedo reduction in addition to being sensitive to BC-induced impacts), thus impacting the downstream hydrology. The source-specific contribution to atmospheric BC aerosols by emission sources led to identifying the potential emission source, which was distinctive over south and north to 30° N.
Alexandra Gossart, Stephen P. Palm, Niels Souverijns, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Blowing snow measurements are scarce, both in time and space over the Antarctic ice sheet. We compare here CALIPSO satellite blowing snow measurements, to ground-base remote sensing ceilometer retrievals at two coastal stations in East Antarctica. Results indicate that 95 % of the blowing snow occurs under cloudy conditions, and are missed by the satellite. In addition, difficulties arise if comparing point locations to satellite overpasses.
Tobias Zolles, Fabien Maussion, Stephan Peter Galos, Wolfgang Gurgiser, and Lindsey Nicholson
The Cryosphere, 13, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-469-2019, 2019
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A mass and energy balance model was subjected to sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on two different Alpine glaciers. The global sensitivity analysis allowed for a mass balance measurement independent assessment of the model sensitivity and functioned as a reduction of the model free parameter space. A novel approach of a multi-objective optimization estimates the uncertainty of the simulated mass balance and the energy fluxes. The final model uncertainty is up to 1300 kg m−3 per year.
Ludwig Schröder, Martin Horwath, Reinhard Dietrich, Veit Helm, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 427–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, 2019
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We developed an approach to combine measurements of seven satellite altimetry missions over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our resulting monthly grids of elevation changes between 1978 and 2017 provide unprecedented details of the long-term and interannual variation. Derived mass changes agree well with contemporaneous data of surface mass balance and satellite gravimetry and show which regions were responsible for the significant accelerations of mass loss in recent years.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
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Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
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Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Florian Andreas Ziemen, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Marlene Klockmann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019
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Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. They are caused by massive ice discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet into the North Atlantic. In previous studies, the climate changes were either seen as resulting from freshwater released from the melt of the discharged icebergs or by ice sheet elevation changes. With a coupled ice sheet–climate model, we show that both effects are relevant with the freshwater effects preceding the ice sheet elevation effects.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 3923–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3923-2018, 2018
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We present a new surface melt scheme for land ice. Derived from the energy balance of melting surfaces, the scheme may be particularly suitable for long ice-sheet simulations of past and future climates. It is computationally inexpensive and can be adapted to changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric composition. The scheme yields a better spatial representation of surface melt than common empirical schemes when applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet under present-day climate conditions.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Coraline Wyard, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 3827–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3827-2018, 2018
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Regional climate models (RCMs) used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica depend on boundary forcing fields including sea surface conditions. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to perturbations in sea surface conditions with the RCM MAR using unchanged atmospheric conditions. Significant SMB anomalies are found for SSC perturbations in the range of CMIP5 global climate model biases.
Michalea D. King, Ian M. Howat, Seongsu Jeong, Myoung J. Noh, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3813–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, 2018
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We derive the first continuous record of total ice discharged from all large Greenland outlet glaciers over the 2000–2016 period, resolving a distinct pattern of seasonal variability. We compare these results to glacier retreat and meltwater runoff and find that while runoff has a limited impact on ice discharge in summer, long-term changes in discharge are highly correlated to retreat. These results help to better understand Greenland outlet glacier sensitivity over a range of timescales.
Kang Yang, Laurence C. Smith, Leif Karlstrom, Matthew G. Cooper, Marco Tedesco, Dirk van As, Xiao Cheng, Zhuoqi Chen, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 12, 3791–3811, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3791-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3791-2018, 2018
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A high-resolution spatially lumped hydrologic surface routing model is proposed to simulate meltwater transport over bare ice surfaces. In an ice-covered catchment, meltwater is routed by slow interfluve flow (~10−3–10−4 m s−1) followed by fast open-channel flow (~10−1 m s−1). Seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream-river networks substantially alters the magnitude and timing of moulin discharge with implications for subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics.
Virna Loana Meccia and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4677–4692, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4677-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4677-2018, 2018
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018
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We have devised a novel way to couple a climate model to an ice-sheet model. Usually, climate models are too slow to simulate more than a few centuries, whereas our new model set-up can simulate a full 120 000-year ice age in about 12 h. This makes it possible to look at the interactions between global climate and ice sheets on long timescales, something which is relevant for both research into past climate and future projections.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
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Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Michael P. Schodlok, Eric Y. Larour, Carmen Boening, Daniel Limonadi, Michael M. Watkins, Mathieu Morlighem, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3511–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, 2018
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Using NASA supercomputers and a novel framework, in which Sandia National Laboratories' statistical software is embedded in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's ice sheet model, we run a range of 100-year warming scenarios for Antarctica. We find that 1.2 m of sea level contribution is achievable, but not likely. Also, we find that bedrock topography beneath the ice drives potential for regional sea level contribution, highlighting the need for accurate bedrock mapping of the ice sheet interior.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Alison Delhasse, Xavier Fettweis, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 12, 3409–3418, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3409-2018, 2018
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Since the 2000s, an atmospheric circulation change (CC) gauged by a negative summer shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation has been observed, enhancing surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Future GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) projections are based on global climate models that do not represent this CC. The model MAR has been used to show that previous estimates of these projections could have been significantly overestimated if this current circulation pattern persists.
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
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During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Sébastien Le clec'h, Andreas Born, Petra M. Langebroek, Chuncheng Guo, Michael Imhof, and Thomas F. Stocker
Clim. Past, 14, 1463–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1463-2018, 2018
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The Greenland ice sheet is a huge frozen water reservoir which is crucial for predictions of sea level in a warming future climate. Therefore, computer models are needed to reliably simulate the melt of ice sheets. In this study, we use climate model simulations of the last period where it was warmer than today in Greenland. We test different melt models under these climatic conditions and show that the melt models show very different results under these warmer conditions.
Edward Hanna, Xavier Fettweis, and Richard J. Hall
The Cryosphere, 12, 3287–3292, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018, 2018
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The latest/recent generations of global climate models do not simulate the recent (last 30 years) increase in atmospheric high pressure over Greenland in summer but rather projects decreasing pressure.
This difference between climate models and observations raises serious questions about the ability of the models to accurately represent future changes in Greenland climate and ice-sheet mass balance. There are also likely effects on climate predictions downstream, e.g. over Europe.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Jiangjun Ran, Miren Vizcaino, Pavel Ditmar, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Twila Moon, Christian R. Steger, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, Catharina H. Reijmer, Roland Klees, Min Zhong, Lin Liu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 2981–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, 2018
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To accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry, surface mass balance, and ice discharge to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal scales. This study, for the first time, suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. We highlight its importance for understanding ice sheet mass variability
Rajashree Tri Datta, Marco Tedesco, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 2901–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, 2018
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Surface melting on the East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP) has been linked to ice shelf collapse, including the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) ice shelves. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a valuable tool to understand how wind patterns and general warming can impact the stability of ice shelves through surface melt. Here, we evaluate one such RCM (Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale) over the East AP, including the remaining Larsen C ice shelf, by comparing it to satellite and ground data.
Thomas M. Jordan, Christopher N. Williams, Dustin M. Schroeder, Yasmina M. Martos, Michael A. Cooper, Martin J. Siegert, John D. Paden, Philippe Huybrechts, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 12, 2831–2854, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2831-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2831-2018, 2018
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Here, via analysis of radio-echo sounding data, we place a new observational constraint upon the basal water distribution beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. In addition to the outlet glaciers, we demonstrate widespread water storage in the northern and eastern ice-sheet interior, a notable feature being a "corridor" of basal water extending from NorthGRIP to Petermann Glacier. The basal water distribution and its relationship with basal temperature provides a new constraint for numerical models.
Axel Wagner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Matthias Prange
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-172, 2018
Publication in GMD not foreseen
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This study demonstrates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on variations in grid resolution and resolution-dependent orography in simulations of the Mid-Holocene. A set of Mid-Holocene sensitivity experiments is carried out. The simulated Mid-Holocene temperature differences (low versus high resolution) reveal a response that regionally exceeds the Mid-Holocene to preindustrial modelled temperature anomalies, and show partly reversed signs across the same geographical regions.
Jesper Sjolte, Christophe Sturm, Florian Adolphi, Bo M. Vinther, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 14, 1179–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1179-2018, 2018
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Tropical volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity have been suggested to influence the strength of westerly winds across the North Atlantic. We use Greenland ice core records together with a climate model simulation, and find stronger westerly winds for five winters following tropical volcanic eruptions. We see a delayed response to solar activity of 5 years, and the response to solar minima corresponds well to the cooling pattern during the period known as the Little Ice Age.
Alexander Kokhanovsky, Maxim Lamare, Biagio Di Mauro, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Marie Dumont, François Tuzet, Carsten Brockmann, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 12, 2371–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2371-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2371-2018, 2018
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This work presents a new technique with which to derive the snow microphysical and optical properties from snow spectral reflectance measurements. The technique is robust and easy to use, and it does not require the extraction of snow samples from a given snowpack. It can be used in processing satellite imagery over extended fresh dry, wet and polluted snowfields.
Yukihiko Onuma, Nozomu Takeuchi, Sota Tanaka, Naoko Nagatsuka, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 12, 2147–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2147-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2147-2018, 2018
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Snow algal bloom can substantially increase melt rates of the snow due to the effect of albedo reduction on the snow surface. In this study, the temporal changes in algal abundance on the snowpacks of Greenland Glacier were studied in order to reproduce snow algal growth using a numerical model. Our study demonstrates that a simple numerical model could simulate the temporal variation in snow algal abundance on the glacier throughout the summer season.
Mari F. Jensen, Aleksi Nummelin, Søren B. Nielsen, Henrik Sadatzki, Evangeline Sessford, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Carin Andersson, Antje Voelker, William H. G. Roberts, Joel Pedro, and Andreas Born
Clim. Past, 14, 901–922, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-901-2018, 2018
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We combine North Atlantic sea-surface temperature reconstructions and global climate model simulations to study rapid glacial climate shifts (30–40 000 years ago). Pre-industrial climate boosts similar, albeit weaker, sea-surface temperature variability as the glacial period. However, in order to reproduce most of the amplitude of this variability, and to see temperature variability in Greenland similar to the ice-core record, although with a smaller amplitude, we need forced simulations.
Mizuo Kajino, Makoto Deushi, Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama, Naga Oshima, Keiya Yumimoto, Taichu Yasumichi Tanaka, Joseph Ching, Akihiro Hashimoto, Tetsuya Yamamoto, Masaaki Ikegami, Akane Kamada, Makoto Miyashita, Yayoi Inomata, Shin-ichiro Shima, Kouji Adachi, Yuji Zaizen, Yasuhito Igarashi, Hiromasa Ueda, Takashi Maki, and Masao Mikami
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-128, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Achim Heilig, Olaf Eisen, Michael MacFerrin, Marco Tedesco, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 1851–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1851-2018, 2018
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This paper presents data on temporal changes in snow and firn, which were not available before. We present data on water infiltration in the percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet that improve our understanding of liquid water retention in snow and firn and mass transfer. We compare those findings with model simulations. It appears that simulated accumulation in terms of SWE is fairly accurate, while modeling of the individual parameters density and liquid water content is incorrect.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1643–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, 2018
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Firn is the transitional product between fresh snow and glacier ice, and a 10-100 m thick layer covers the Greenland ice sheet. It has the capacity to store meltwater and thereby mitigate runoff to the ocean. Using a model and improved atmospheric forcing, we simulate firn density and temperature that agrees well with observations from firn cores. Especially in the regions with substantial melt, and therefore the most sensitive to a warming climate, the results improved significantly.
Konstanze Haubner, Jason E. Box, Nicole J. Schlegel, Eric Y. Larour, Mathieu Morlighem, Anne M. Solgaard, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Signe H. Larsen, Eric Rignot, Todd K. Dupont, and Kurt H. Kjær
The Cryosphere, 12, 1511–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1511-2018, 2018
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We investigate the effect of neglecting calving on Upernavik Isstrøm, West Greenland, between 1849 and 2012.
Our simulation is forced with observed terminus positions in discrete time steps and is responsive to the prescribed ice front changes.
Simulated frontal retreat is needed to obtain a realistic ice surface elevation and velocity evolution of Upernavik.
Using the prescribed terminus position change we gain insight to mass loss partitioning during different time periods.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Helmut Rott, Wael Abdel Jaber, Jan Wuite, Stefan Scheiblauer, Dana Floricioiu, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Thomas Nagler, Nuno Miranda, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1273–1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1273-2018, 2018
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We analysed volume change, mass balance and ice flow of glaciers draining into the Larsen A and Larsen B embayments on the Antarctic Peninsula for 2011 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016. The mass balance is based on elevation change measured by the radar satellite mission TanDEM-X and on the mass budget method. The glaciers show continuing losses in ice mass, which is a response to ice shelf break-up. After 2013 the downwasting of glaciers slowed down, coinciding with years of persistent sea ice cover.
Sebastian G. Mutz, Todd A. Ehlers, Martin Werner, Gerrit Lohmann, Christian Stepanek, and Jingmin Li
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 271–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-271-2018, 2018
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We use a climate model and statistics to provide an overview of regional climates from different times in the late Cenozoic. We focus on tectonically active mountain ranges in particular. Our results highlight significant changes in climates throughout the late Cenozoic, which should be taken into consideration when interpreting erosion rates. We also document the differences between model- and proxy-based estimates for late Cenozoic climate change in South America and Tibet.
Amber A. Leeson, Emma Eastoe, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 1091–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018, 2018
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Future melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is predicted using regional climate models (RCMs). Here, we assess the ability of the MAR RCM to reproduce observed extreme temperature events and the melt energy produced during these times at 14 locations. We find that MAR underestimates temperatures by >0.5 °C during extreme events, which leads to an underestimate in melt energy by up to 41 %. This is potentially an artefact of the data used to drive the MAR simulation and needs to be corrected for.
Ingo Sasgen, Alba Martín-Español, Alexander Horvath, Volker Klemann, Elizabeth J. Petrie, Bert Wouters, Martin Horwath, Roland Pail, Jonathan L. Bamber, Peter J. Clarke, Hannes Konrad, Terry Wilson, and Mark R. Drinkwater
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 493–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-493-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-493-2018, 2018
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We present a collection of data sets, consisting of surface-elevation rates for Antarctic ice sheet from a combination of Envisat and ICESat, bedrock uplift rates for 118 GPS sites in Antarctica, and optimally filtered GRACE gravity field rates. We provide viscoelastic response functions to a disc load forcing for Earth structures present in East and West Antarctica. This data collection enables a joint inversion for present-day ice-mass changes and glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Akil Hossain, Xu Zhang, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-9, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Masashi Niwano, Teruo Aoki, Akihiro Hashimoto, Sumito Matoba, Satoru Yamaguchi, Tomonori Tanikawa, Koji Fujita, Akane Tsushima, Yoshinori Iizuka, Rigen Shimada, and Masahiro Hori
The Cryosphere, 12, 635–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-635-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-635-2018, 2018
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We present a high-resolution regional climate model called NHM–SMAP applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The model forced by JRA-55 reanalysis is evaluated using in situ data from automated weather stations, stake measurements,
and ice core obtained from 2011 to 2014. By utilizing the model, we highlight that the choice of calculation schemes for vertical water movement in snow and firn has an effect of up to 200 Gt/year in the yearly accumulated GrIS-wide surface mass balance estimates.
Alex S. Gardner, Geir Moholdt, Ted Scambos, Mark Fahnstock, Stefan Ligtenberg, Michiel van den Broeke, and Johan Nilsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018
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We map present-day Antarctic surface velocities from Landsat imagery and compare to earlier estimates from radar. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 89 % of the observed increase in ice discharge. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic have been remarkably stable. Our work suggests that patterns of mass loss are part of a longer-term phase of enhanced flow.
Werner M. J. Lazeroms, Adrian Jenkins, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018
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Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Ruth Mottram, Kristian Pagh Nielsen, Emily Gleeson, and Xiaohua Yang
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 323–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-323-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-323-2017, 2017
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The HARMONIE weather forecasting model is used successfully in Greenland, but there are some problems over the ice sheet due to the lack of realistic glacier surface characteristics. By introducing a correction to the model, preventing glacier surface temperatures over 0 °C, we improve both 2 m air temperature and the surface winds (both strength and direction) forecast by the model.
We also identify other corrections needed before HARMONIE can be used for climate and ice sheet modelling.
Damodar Lamsal, Koji Fujita, and Akiko Sakai
The Cryosphere, 11, 2815–2827, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2815-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2815-2017, 2017
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This study presents the geodetic mass balance of Kanchenjunga Glacier, a heavily debris-covered glacier in the easternmost Nepal Himalaya, between 1975 and 2010 using high-resolution DEMs. The rate of elevation change positively correlates with elevation and glacier velocity, and significant surface lowering is observed at supraglacial ponds. A difference in pond density would strongly affect the different geodetic mass balances of the Kanchenjunga and Khumbu glaciers.
Alexandra Gossart, Niels Souverijns, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan H. Schween, Alexander Mangold, Quentin Laffineur, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 11, 2755–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, 2017
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Blowing snow plays an important role on local surface mass balance of Antarctica. We present here the blowing snow detection algorithm, to retrieve blowing snow occurrence from the attenuated backscatter signal of ceilometers set up at two station. There is a good correspondence in detection of heavy blowing snow by the algorithm and the visual observations performed at Neumayer station. Moreover, most of the blowing snow occurs during events bringing precipitation from the coast inland.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
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This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
Valerie Menke, Werner Ehrmann, Yvonne Milker, Swaantje Brzelinski, Jürgen Möbius, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Bernd Zolitschka, Karin Zonneveld, Kay Christian Emeis, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-139, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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This study examines changes in the marine ecosystem during the past 1300 years in the Gulf of Taranto (Italy) to unravel natural and anthropogenic forcing. Our data suggest, that processes at the sea floor are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. During the past 200 years, the effects of rising northern hemisphere temperature and increasing anthropogenic activity enhanced nutrient and organic matter fluxes leading to more eutrophic conditions.
Norel Rimbu, Monica Ionita, Markus Czymzik, Achim Brauer, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Multi-decadal to millennial flood frequency variations in the Mid- to Late Holocene in a flood layer record from Lake Ammersee is strongly related to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperatures in the northeastern Europe.
Jeremy Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Hailong Wang
The Cryosphere, 11, 2595–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, 2017
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In this CESM modeling study, we uncover regional relationships in snowfall across Antarctica that are corroborated by regional modeling and ice core records. These relationships are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport and dampen overall Antarctic snowfall variability, with implications for Antarctic-sourced sea level variability and detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
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Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. LeGrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Steven J. Phipps, Hans Renssen, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017
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The PMIP4 and CMIP6 mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations provide an opportunity to examine the impact of two different changes in insolation forcing on climate at times when other forcings were relatively similar to present. This will allow exploration of the role of feedbacks relevant to future projections. Evaluating these simulations using paleoenvironmental data will provide direct out-of-sample tests of the reliability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
Christian R. Steger, Carleen H. Reijmer, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 2507–2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2507-2017, 2017
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Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, is currently dominated by surface melt and run-off. The relation between these two variables is rather uncertain due to the firn layer’s potential to buffer melt in solid (refreezing) or liquid (firn aquifer) form. To address this uncertainty, we analyse output of a numerical firn model run over 1960–2014. Results show a spatially variable response of the ice sheet to increasing melt and an upward migration of aquifers.
Andrew J. Tedstone, Jonathan L. Bamber, Joseph M. Cook, Christopher J. Williamson, Xavier Fettweis, Andrew J. Hodson, and Martyn Tranter
The Cryosphere, 11, 2491–2506, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2491-2017, 2017
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The bare ice albedo of the south-west Greenland ice sheet varies dramatically between years. The reasons are unclear but likely involve darkening by inorganic particulates, cryoconite and ice algae. We use satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics and climate model outputs to find likely climatological controls. Outcropping particulates can explain the spatial extent of dark ice, but the darkening itself is likely due to ice algae growth controlled by meltwater and light availability.
Peter Kuipers Munneke, Daniel McGrath, Brooke Medley, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, Bernd Kulessa, Daniela Jansen, Adam Booth, Paul Smeets, Bryn Hubbard, David Ashmore, Michiel Van den Broeke, Heidi Sevestre, Konrad Steffen, Andrew Shepherd, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 11, 2411–2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, 2017
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How much snow falls on the Larsen C ice shelf? This is a relevant question, because this ice shelf might collapse sometime this century. To know if and when this could happen, we found out how much snow falls on its surface. This was difficult, because there are only very few measurements. Here, we used data from automatic weather stations, sled-pulled radars, and a climate model to find that melting the annual snowfall produces about 20 cm of water in the NE and over 70 cm in the SW.
Sebastian H. Mernild, Glen E. Liston, Andrew P. Beckerman, and Jacob C. Yde
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-234, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study is about simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance, and the related snow refreezing conditions and the spatio-temporal Greenland distribution of freshwater runoff to surrounding seas. Runoff has increased since 1979, and can be used as input for numerical ocean models linking the terrestrial runoff to changes in the near-coastal seas. This will provide us with an increasing understanding how Greenland is linked to the surrounding seas. SnowModel and ERA-I were used here.
Julienne C. Stroeve, John R. Mioduszewski, Asa Rennermalm, Linette N. Boisvert, Marco Tedesco, and David Robinson
The Cryosphere, 11, 2363–2381, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2363-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2363-2017, 2017
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As the sea ice has declined strongly in recent years there has been a corresponding increase in Greenland melting. While both are likely a result of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that favor summer melt, this study evaluates whether or not sea ice reductions around the Greenland ice sheet are having an influence on Greenland summer melt through enhanced sensible and latent heat transport from open water areas onto the ice sheet.
Lennert B. Stap, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas de Boer, Richard Bintanja, and Lucas J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017
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We show the results of transient simulations with a coupled climate–ice sheet model over the past 38 million years. The CO2 forcing of the model is inversely obtained from a benthic δ18O stack. These simulations enable us to study the influence of ice sheet variability on climate change on long timescales. We find that ice sheet–climate interaction strongly enhances Earth system sensitivity and polar amplification.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Toby J. Benham, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Mariusz Grabiec, Francisco Navarro, Rickard Pettersson, Geir Moholdt, Christopher Nuth, Björn Sass, Kjetil Aas, Xavier Fettweis, Charlotte Lang, Thorsten Seehaus, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 11, 2003–2032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2003-2017, 2017
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For the large majority of glaciers and ice caps, there is no information on the thickness of the ice cover. Any attempt to predict glacier demise under climatic warming and to estimate the future contribution to sea-level rise is limited as long as the glacier thickness is not well constrained. Here, we present a two-step mass-conservation approach for mapping ice thickness. Measurements are naturally reproduced. The reliability is readily assessible from a complementary map of error estimates.
Lu Niu, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian Hinck, and Evan J. Gowan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-105, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial-interglacial cycle is investigated by using output from PMIP3 models. The results show large diversity in simulated ice sheets between different models. We found that summer surface air temperature pattern resembles the ice sheet extent pattern at the LGM. This study implies careful constrains on climate output is essential for simulating reliable glacial-interglacial Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
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Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Kimberly A. Casey, Chris M. Polashenski, Justin Chen, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 11, 1781–1795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1781-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1781-2017, 2017
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We analyzed Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) average summer surface reflectance and albedo (2001–2016). MODIS Collection 6 data show a decreased magnitude of change over time due to sensor calibration corrections. Spectral band maps provide insight into GrIS surface processes likely occurring. Correctly measuring albedo and surface reflectance changes over time is crucial to monitoring atmosphere–ice interactions and ice mass balance. The results are applicable to many long-term MODIS studies.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Sverrir Guðmundsson, Peter L. Langen, Finnur Pálsson, Ruth Mottram, Simon Gascoin, and Helgi Björnsson
The Cryosphere, 11, 1665–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, 2017
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The regional climate model HIRHAM5 is evaluated over Vatnajökull, Iceland, using automatic weather stations and mass balance observations from 1995 to 2014. From this we asses whether the model can be used to reconstruct the mass balance of the glacier. We find that the simulated energy balance is underestimated overall, but it has been improved by using a new albedo scheme. The specific mass balance is reconstructed back to 1980, thus expanding on the observational records of the mass balance.
Dirk van As, Andreas Bech Mikkelsen, Morten Holtegaard Nielsen, Jason E. Box, Lillemor Claesson Liljedahl, Katrin Lindbäck, Lincoln Pitcher, and Bent Hasholt
The Cryosphere, 11, 1371–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1371-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1371-2017, 2017
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The Greenland ice sheet melts faster in a warmer climate. The ice sheet is flatter at high elevation, therefore atmospheric warming increases the melt area exponentially. For current climate conditions, we find that the ice sheet shape amplifies the total meltwater generation by roughly 60 %. Meltwater is not stored underneath the ice sheet, as previously found, but it does take multiple days for it to pass through the seasonally developing subglacial drainage channels, moderating discharge.
Riccardo E. M. Riva, Thomas Frederikse, Matt A. King, Ben Marzeion, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 1327–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, 2017
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The reduction of ice masses stored on land has made an important contribution to sea-level rise over the last century, as well as changed the Earth's shape. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have varied strongly throughout the last century, which affects the interpretation and extrapolation of recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.
Koji Fujita, Hiroshi Inoue, Takeki Izumi, Satoru Yamaguchi, Ayako Sadakane, Sojiro Sunako, Kouichi Nishimura, Walter W. Immerzeel, Joseph M. Shea, Rijan B. Kayastha, Takanobu Sawagaki, David F. Breashears, Hiroshi Yagi, and Akiko Sakai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 749–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-749-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-749-2017, 2017
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We create multiple DEMs from photographs taken by helicopter and UAV and reveal the deposit volumes over the Langtang village, which was destroyed by avalanches induced by the Gorkha earthquake. Estimated snow depth in the source area is consistent with anomalously large snow depths observed at a neighboring glacier. Comparing with a long-term observational data, we conclude that this anomalous winter snow amplified the disaster induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal.
Sascha Bellaire, Martin Proksch, Martin Schneebeli, Masashi Niwano, and Konrad Steffen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-55, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Xavier Fettweis, Jason E. Box, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Dirk van As, Horst Machguth, and Hubert Gallée
The Cryosphere, 11, 1015–1033, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1015-2017, 2017
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This paper shows that the surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet since the end of the 1990s has been unprecedented, with respect to the last 120 years, using a regional climate model. These simulations also suggest an increase of the snowfall accumulation through the last century before a surface mass decrease in the 2000s. Such a mass gain could have impacted the ice sheet's dynamic stability and could explain the recent observed increase of the glaciers' velocity.
Vera D. Meyer, Jens Hefter, Gerrit Lohmann, Lars Max, Ralf Tiedemann, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Clim. Past, 13, 359–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-359-2017, 2017
Markella Prokopiou, Patricia Martinerie, Célia J. Sapart, Emmanuel Witrant, Guillaume Monteil, Kentaro Ishijima, Sophie Bernard, Jan Kaiser, Ingeborg Levin, Thomas Blunier, David Etheridge, Ed Dlugokencky, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4539–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, 2017
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Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an increasing mole fraction. To understand its natural and anthropogenic sources
we employ isotope measurements. Results show that while the N2O mole fraction increases, its heavy isotope content decreases. The isotopic changes observed underline the dominance of agricultural emissions especially at the early part of the record, whereas in the later decades the contribution from other anthropogenic sources increases.
Harry Zekollari, Philippe Huybrechts, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 805–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, 2017
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In this study the dynamics of the world’s northernmost ice cap are investigated with a 3-D ice flow model. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions
an ice cap similar to the observed one is obtained, with comparable geometry and surface velocities. The southern part of the ice cap is very unstable,
and under early-21st-century climatic conditions this part of the ice cap fully disappears. In a projected warmer and wetter climate the ice cap will at
first steepen, before eventually disappearing.
Gabriel Lewis, Erich Osterberg, Robert Hawley, Brian Whitmore, Hans Peter Marshall, and Jason Box
The Cryosphere, 11, 773–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-773-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-773-2017, 2017
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We analyze 25 flight lines from NASA's Operation IceBridge Accumulation Radar totaling to determine snow accumulation throughout the dry snow and percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Our results indicate that regional differences between IceBridge and model accumulation are large enough to significantly alter the Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance, with implications for future global sea-level rise.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
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We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, Heiko Goelzer, William Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Andrew Shepherd
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016
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This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea level that arises due to past, present, and future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with investigating ice sheet–climate feedbacks. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) protocol includes targeted experiments, and a set of output diagnostic related to ice sheets, that are part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 2195–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2195-2016, 2016
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We simulate the climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution during the Last Interglacial (~ 130 to 115 kyr BP), the most recent warm period in Earth’s history. Our Earth system model includes components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Our simulation is in good agreement with available data reconstructions and gives important insights into the dominant mechanisms that caused ice sheet changes in the past.
Constantijn J. Berends and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016
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This paper describes several improvements to the so-called "flood-fill algorithm" – a computer program widely known for its use in the "paint bucket" tool in several drawing programs such as MS Paint. However, it can also be used to determine the extent and depth of lakes in a topography map, which is useful in hydrology and climatology. In such cases, the default algorithm can be too slow to be of much use. Our improvements can make it up to 100 times faster, making it much more feasible.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
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Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Daniel J. Lunt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Emilie Capron, Anders E. Carlson, Andrea Dutton, Hubertus Fischer, Heiko Goelzer, Aline Govin, Alan Haywood, Fortunat Joos, Allegra N. Legrande, William H. Lipscomb, Gerrit Lohmann, Natalie Mahowald, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Jean-Yves Peterschmidt, Francesco S.-R. Pausata, Steven Phipps, and Hans Renssen
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-106, 2016
Preprint retracted
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Horst Machguth, Stef Lhermitte, Ian Howat, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 2361–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016
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We present a 1 km resolution data set (1958–2015) of daily Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), statistically downscaled from the data of RACMO2.3 at 11 km using elevation dependence, precipitation and bare ice albedo corrections. The data set resolves Greenland narrow ablation zones and local outlet glaciers, and shows more realistic SMB patterns, owing to enhanced runoff at the ice sheet margins. An evaluation of the product against SMB measurements shows improved agreement.
Rasmus A. Pedersen, Peter L. Langen, and Bo M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 12, 1907–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1907-2016, 2016
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Using climate model experiments, we investigate the causes of the Eemian (125 000 years ago) warming in Greenland. Sea ice loss and sea surface warming prolong the impact of the summer insolation increase, causing warming throughout the year. We find potential for ice sheet mass loss in the north and southwestern parts of Greenland. Our simulations indicate that the direct impact of the insolation, rather than the indirect effect of the warmer ocean, is the dominant cause of ice sheet melt.
Jonathan C. Ryan, Alun Hubbard, Marek Stibal, Jason E. Box, and the Dark Snow Project team
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-204, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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Using digital imagery and broadband albedo acquired by a fixed-wing UAS we classified and measured the albedo of six surface types that dominate the Greenland ablation area and its dark region. We found that the primary control on ablation area albedo is the fractional area of distributed impurities. Although not the darkest surface type observed, the distributed impurities dominate the albedo signal because of their extensive coverage.
Marlene Klockmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Jochem Marotzke
Clim. Past, 12, 1829–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1829-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1829-2016, 2016
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We study the response of the glacial AMOC to different forcings in a coupled AOGCM. The depth of the upper overturning cell remains almost unchanged in response to the full glacial forcing. This is the result of two opposing effects: a deepening due to the ice sheets and a shoaling due to the low GHG concentrations. Increased brine release in the Southern Ocean is key to the shoaling. With glacial ice sheets, a shallower cell can be simulated with GHG concentrations below the glacial level.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, David N. Wiese, Eric Y. Larour, Michael M. Watkins, Jason E. Box, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 1965–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, 2016
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We investigate Greenland Ice Sheet mass change from 2003–2012 by comparing observations from GRACE with state-of-the-art atmospheric and ice sheet model simulations. We find that the largest discrepancies (in the northwest and southeast) are likely controlled by errors in modeled surface climate as well as ice–ocean interaction and hydrological processes (not included in the models). Models should consider such processes at monthly to seasonal resolutions in order to improve future projections.
Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Ian M. Howat, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016
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We present recent (1958–2015) mass balance time series for the Greenland ice sheet. We show that recent mass loss is caused by a combination of increased surface meltwater runoff and solid ice discharge. Most meltwater above 2000 m a.s.l. refreezes in the cold firn and does not leave the ice sheet, but this goes at the expense of firn heating and densifying. In spite of a temporary rebound in 2013, it appears that the ice sheet remains in a state of persistent mass loss.
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, 2016
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We have modelled the climate evolution from 135 to 120 kyr BP with an Earth system model to study the onset of the Last Interglacial warm period. Ice sheet changes and associated freshwater fluxes in both hemispheres constitute an important forcing in the simulations. Freshwater fluxes from the melting Antarctic ice sheet are found to lead to an oceanic cold event in the Southern Ocean as evidenced in some ocean sediment cores, which may be used to constrain the timing of ice sheet retreat.
Lora S. Koenig, Alvaro Ivanoff, Patrick M. Alexander, Joseph A. MacGregor, Xavier Fettweis, Ben Panzer, John D. Paden, Richard R. Forster, Indrani Das, Joesph R. McConnell, Marco Tedesco, Carl Leuschen, and Prasad Gogineni
The Cryosphere, 10, 1739–1752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1739-2016, 2016
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Contemporary climate warming over the Arctic is accelerating mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through increasing surface melt, emphasizing the need to closely monitor surface mass balance in order to improve sea-level rise predictions. Here, we quantify the net annual accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet, which comprises the largest component of surface mass balance, at a higher spatial resolution than currently available using high-resolution, airborne-radar data.
T. M. Jordan, J. L. Bamber, C. N. Williams, J. D. Paden, M. J. Siegert, P. Huybrechts, O. Gagliardini, and F. Gillet-Chaulet
The Cryosphere, 10, 1547–1570, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1547-2016, 2016
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Ice penetrating radar enables determination of the basal properties of ice sheets. Existing algorithms assume stationarity in the attenuation rate, which is not justifiable at an ice sheet scale. We introduce the first ice-sheet-wide algorithm for radar attenuation that incorporates spatial variability, using the temperature field from a numerical model as an initial guess. The study is a step toward ice-sheet-wide data products for basal properties and evaluation of model temperature fields.
Patrick M. Alexander, Marco Tedesco, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Scott B. Luthcke, Xavier Fettweis, and Eric Larour
The Cryosphere, 10, 1259–1277, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1259-2016, 2016
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We compared satellite-derived estimates of spatial and seasonal variations in Greenland Ice Sheet mass with a set of model simulations, revealing an agreement between models and satellite estimates for the ice-sheet-wide seasonal fluctuations in mass, but disagreement at finer spatial scales. The model simulations underestimate low-elevation mass loss. Improving the ability of models to capture variations and trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass is important for estimating future sea level rise.
Madlene Pfeiffer and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 12, 1313–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1313-2016, 2016
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The Last Interglacial was warmer, with a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), compared to the late Holocene. We analyse – through climate model simulations – the impact of a reduced GIS on the global surface air temperature and find a relatively strong warming especially in the Northern Hemisphere. These results are then compared to temperature reconstructions, indicating good agreement with respect to the pattern. However, the simulated temperatures underestimate the proxy-based temperatures.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
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For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
Andreas Bech Mikkelsen, Alun Hubbard, Mike MacFerrin, Jason Eric Box, Sam H. Doyle, Andrew Fitzpatrick, Bent Hasholt, Hannah L. Bailey, Katrin Lindbäck, and Rickard Pettersson
The Cryosphere, 10, 1147–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1147-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1147-2016, 2016
Zheng Xu, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Wouter van der Wal, Michiel van den Broeke, and Ellyn M. Enderlin
The Cryosphere, 10, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare the regional mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet between the solutions based on GRACE data and input/output method. Differences are found in some regions and indicate errors in those solutions. Therefore we improve our GRACE and IOM solutions by applying a simulation. We show the improved regional mass changes approximations are more consistent in regions. The remaining difference in the northwester Greenland is due to the underestimated uncertainty in IOM solution.
C. Amory, F. Naaim-Bouvet, H. Gallée, and E. Vignon
The Cryosphere, 10, 743–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-743-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-743-2016, 2016
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This study presents observational characterization of interactions between wind-induced surface roughness and aeolian erosion over a rough surface in coastal East Antarctica. It is shown that the drag caused by small-scale roughness elements can significantly affects the aeolian snow mass flux during an erosion event, depending on the ability of the surface to adjust according to the main wind. Such measurements are essential to improve parameterization schemes for aeolian snow transport models.
Wenshan Wang, Charles S. Zender, Dirk van As, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-727-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-727-2016, 2016
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We identify and correct station-tilt-induced biases in insolation observed by automatic weather stations on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Without tilt correction, only 40 % of clear days have the correct solar noon time (±0.5 h). The largest hourly bias exceeds 20 %. We estimate the tilt angles based on solar geometric relationship between insolation observed on horizontal surfaces and that on tilted surfaces, and produce shortwave radiation and albedo that agree better with independent data sets.
Ioana S. Muresan, Shfaqat A. Khan, Andy Aschwanden, Constantine Khroulev, Tonie Van Dam, Jonathan Bamber, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Bert Wouters, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Kurt H. Kjær
The Cryosphere, 10, 597–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-597-2016, 2016
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We use a regional 3-D outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) during 1990–2014. The model simulates two major accelerations in 1998 and 2003 that are consistent with observations. We find that most of the JI retreat during the simulated period is driven by the ocean parametrization used, and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largely governed by bed geometry. The study shows progress in modelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
Marco Tedesco, Sarah Doherty, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, Jeyavinoth Jeyaratnam, and Julienne Stroeve
The Cryosphere, 10, 477–496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-477-2016, 2016
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Summer surface albedo over Greenland decreased at a rate of 0.02 per decade between 1996 and 2012. The decrease is due to snow grain growth, the expansion of bare ice areas, and trends in light-absorbing impurities on snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ observations indicate increasing trends in impurities in the atmosphere over Greenland. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening.
Willem Jan van de Berg and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 10, 459–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-459-2016, 2016
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Regional climate models improve the spatial surface mass balance (SMB) patterns in Antarctica compared to reanalyses, but they deteriorate the representation of interannual variability in SMB. Hence, we implemented additional nudging in our regional climate model RACMO2. Using annual SMB observations of the Twaites drainage basin, Antarctica, we show that this nudging vastly improves the representation of interannual variability without significant deterioration of the modelled mean SMB fields.
Norel Rimbu, Markus Czymzik, Monica Ionita, Gerrit Lohmann, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 377–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, 2016
M. Werner, B. Haese, X. Xu, X. Zhang, M. Butzin, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 647–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-647-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the first results of a new isotope-enabled GCM set-up, based on the ECHAM5/MPI-OM fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Results of two equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial and Last Glacial Maximum conditions reveal a good to very good agreement with many delta O-18 and delta D observational records, and a remarkable improvement for the modelling of the deuterium excess signal in Antarctic ice cores.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
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This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
M. Stärz, G. Lohmann, and G. Knorr
Clim. Past, 12, 151–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-151-2016, 2016
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In order to account for coupled climate-soil processes, we developed a soil scheme which is asynchronously coupled to an earth system model. We tested the scheme and found additional warming for a relatively warm climate (mid-Holocene), and extra cooling for a colder (Last Glacial Maximum) than preindustrial climate. These findings indicate a relatively strong positive soil feedback to climate, which may help to reduce model-data discrepancies for the climate of the geological past.
H. Nagai, K. Fujita, A. Sakai, T. Nuimura, and T. Tadono
The Cryosphere, 10, 65–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-65-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-65-2016, 2016
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Digital glacier inventories are invaluable data sets for revealing the characteristics of glacier distribution. However, quantitative comparison of present inventories was not performed. Here, we present a new inventory manually delineated from Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) imagery and compare it with existing inventories for the Bhutan Himalaya. Quantification of overlapping among available glacier outlines suggests consistency and recent improvement of their delineation quality.
M. Navari, S. A. Margulis, S. M. Bateni, M. Tedesco, P. Alexander, and X. Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 10, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-103-2016, 2016
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An ensemble batch smoother was used to assess the feasibility of generating a reanalysis estimate of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass fluxes (SMF) via integrating measured ice surface temperatures with a regional climate model estimate. The results showed that assimilation of IST were able to overcome uncertainties in meteorological forcings that drive the GrIS surface processes. We showed that the proposed methodology is able to generate posterior reanalysis estimates of the SMF.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
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We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
M. Forrest, J. T. Eronen, T. Utescher, G. Knorr, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, and T. Hickler
Clim. Past, 11, 1701–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1701-2015, 2015
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We simulated Late Miocene (11-7 Million years ago) vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations: 280ppm CO2 and 450ppm CO2. We compared the simulated vegetation to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.
C. Agosta, X. Fettweis, and R. Datta
The Cryosphere, 9, 2311–2321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015, 2015
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Estimates of the Antarctic surface mass balance with regional climate models (RCMs) require proper fields for forcing; hence we evaluate 41 CMIP5 climate models over Antarctica and include six reanalyses. Most of the models are biased compared to ERA-Interim, ACCESS1-3 being the best choice for forcing RCMs. Climate change is less sensitive to global warming than it is to the present-day simulated sea ice and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and temperature increase around Antarctica.
C. Charalampidis, D. van As, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, W. T. Colgan, S. H. Doyle, A. L. Hubbard, M. MacFerrin, H. Machguth, and C. J. P. P. Smeets
The Cryosphere, 9, 2163–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2163-2015, 2015
P. Kuipers Munneke, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, B. P. Y. Noël, I. M. Howat, J. E. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, J. R. McConnell, K. Steffen, J. T. Harper, S. B. Das, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, 2015
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The snow layer on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing: it is thickening in the high and cold interior due to increased snowfall, while it is thinning around the margins. The marginal thinning is caused by compaction, and by more melt.
This knowledge is important: there are satellites that measure volume change of the ice sheet. It can be caused by increased ice discharge, or by compaction of the snow layer. Here, we quantify the latter, so that we can translate volume to mass change.
X. Shi and G. Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2137-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Our work is to investigate to what degree the open water ice formation affects the ice and ocean properties.
Our results show a positive feedback among the Arctic sea ice, the AMOC, and the surface air temperature in the Arctic.
The sea ice transport affects the freshwater budget in regions of deep water formation.
A link between the climate of Northern Hemisphere continents and the lead closing rate during ice formation period is also shown by the model.
A. E. Jowett, E. Hanna, F. Ng, P. Huybrechts, and I. Janssens
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-5327-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
S. Miyazaki, K. Saito, J. Mori, T. Yamazaki, T. Ise, H. Arakida, T. Hajima, Y. Iijima, H. Machiya, T. Sueyoshi, H. Yabuki, E. J. Burke, M. Hosaka, K. Ichii, H. Ikawa, A. Ito, A. Kotani, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, T. Nitta, R. O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, T. Sasai, A. Sato, H. Sato, A. Sugimoto, R. Suzuki, K. Tanaka, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, 2015
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The paper provides an overall outlook and the Stage 1 experiment (site simulations) protocol of GTMIP, an open model intercomparison project for terrestrial Arctic, conducted as an activity of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). Models are driven by 34-year data created with the GRENE-TEA observations at four sites in Finland, Siberia and Alaska, and evaluated for physico-ecological key processes: energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budget.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
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We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
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The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
C. Amory, A. Trouvilliez, H. Gallée, V. Favier, F. Naaim-Bouvet, C. Genthon, C. Agosta, L. Piard, and H. Bellot
The Cryosphere, 9, 1373–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1373-2015, 2015
S. de la Peña, I. M. Howat, P. W. Nienow, M. R. van den Broeke, E. Mosley-Thompson, S. F. Price, D. Mair, B. Noël, and A. J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 9, 1203–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, 2015
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This paper presents an assessment of changes in the near-surface structure of the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by an increase of melt at higher elevations in the last decade, especially during the unusually warm years of 2010 and 2012. The increase in melt and firn densification complicate the interpretation of changes in the ice volume, and the observed increase in firn ice content may reduce the important meltwater buffering capacity of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1089–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, 2015
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We performed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 metres of firn at Summit, Greenland, by following over a 4-year period isotope-enriched snow that we deposited.
We found that the diffusion process was much less rapid than in the most commonly used model. We discuss several aspects of the diffusion process that are still poorly constrained and might lead to this discrepancy. Quantitative knowledge of diffusion is necessary for use of the diffusion process itself as a climate proxy.
J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 9, 1039–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015, 2015
N. Sudarchikova, U. Mikolajewicz, C. Timmreck, D. O'Donnell, G. Schurgers, D. Sein, and K. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 765–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, 2015
M. Niwano, T. Aoki, S. Matoba, S. Yamaguchi, T. Tanikawa, K. Kuchiki, and H. Motoyama
The Cryosphere, 9, 971–988, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-971-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-971-2015, 2015
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A physical snowpack model SMAP and in situ meteorological and snow data obtained at site SIGMA-A on the northwest Greenland ice sheet are used to assess surface energy balance during the extreme near-surface snowmelt event around 12 July 2012. We determined that the main factor for the melt event observed at the SIGMA-A site was low-level clouds accompanied by a significant temperature increase, which induced surface heating via cloud radiative forcing in the polar region.
C. Lang, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 945–956, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015, 2015
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We simulated the 21st century Svalbard SMB with the regional model MAR (RCP8.5 scenario). Melt is projected to increase gently up to 2050 and then dramatically increase, with a larger increase in the south of the archipelago. This difference is due to larger ice albedo decrease in the south causing larger increase of absorbed solar radiation. The ablation area is projected to disappear over the entire Svalbard by 2085. The SMB decrease compared to present is projected to contribute 7mm to SLR.
T. Nuimura, A. Sakai, K. Taniguchi, H. Nagai, D. Lamsal, S. Tsutaki, A. Kozawa, Y. Hoshina, S. Takenaka, S. Omiya, K. Tsunematsu, P. Tshering, and K. Fujita
The Cryosphere, 9, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-849-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-849-2015, 2015
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We present a new glacier inventory for high-mountain Asia named “Glacier Area Mapping for Discharge from the Asian Mountains” (GAMDAM). Glacier outlines were delineated manually using 356 Landsat ETM+ scenes in 226 path-row sets from the period 1999–2003, in conjunction with a digital elevation model and high-resolution Google EarthTM imagery. Our GAMDAM Glacier Inventory includes 87,084 glaciers covering a total area of 91,263 ± 13,689 km2 throughout high-mountain Asia.
A. Sakai, T. Nuimura, K. Fujita, S. Takenaka, H. Nagai, and D. Lamsal
The Cryosphere, 9, 865–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-865-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-865-2015, 2015
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Among meteorological elements, precipitation has a large spatial variability and less observation, particularly in high-mountain Asia, although precipitation in mountains is an important parameter for hydrological circulation. Based on the GAMDAM glacier inventory, we estimated precipitation contributing to glacier mass at the median elevation of glaciers, which is presumed to be at equilibrium-line altitude, by tuning adjustment parameters of precipitation.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
S. Westermann, B. Elberling, S. Højlund Pedersen, M. Stendel, B. U. Hansen, and G. E. Liston
The Cryosphere, 9, 719–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-719-2015, 2015
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The development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is influenced by many factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. We present numerical simulations of ground temperatures for the Zackenberg valley in NE Greenland, which take into account the spatial variability of snow depths, surface and ground properties at a scale of 10m. The ensemble of the model grid cells suggests a spatial variability of annual average ground temperatures of up to 5°C.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
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This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
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The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
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Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
C. Lang, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 83–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-83-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-83-2015, 2015
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We have modelled the surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the model MAR over 1979--2013. The mean SMB is slightly negative and the Svalbard glaciers are losing mass through surface processes (mainly precipitation and runoff), but there has been no acceleration of the surface melt, contrary to Greenland where melt records have been broken since 2006. We attributed it to a change in atmospheric circulation, resulting in northerly cold flows over Svalbard damping Arctic warming.
A. Belleflamme, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 9, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-53-2015, 2015
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The 2007-2012 summertime circulation anomaly over the Arctic region (i.e. more high pressure systems over the Beaufort Sea, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Greenland) is put in a historical perspective. While the 2007-2012 anomaly seems to be exceptional, similar circulation conditions have occurred since 1871, on the basis of five reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, ERA-20C, 20CRv2). The attribution of this anomaly (natural variability or global warming) remains debatable.
J. C. Ryan, A. L. Hubbard, J. E. Box, J. Todd, P. Christoffersen, J. R. Carr, T. O. Holt, and N. Snooke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1-2015, 2015
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An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a commercial digital camera enabled us to obtain high-resolution digital images of the calving front of Store glacier, Greenland. The three sorties flown enabled key glaciological parameters to be quantified in sufficient detail to reveal that the terminus of Store glacier is a complex system with large variations in crevasse patterns surface velocities, calving processes, surface elevations and front positions at a daily and seasonal timescale.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
H. Barral, C. Genthon, A. Trouvilliez, C. Brun, and C. Amory
The Cryosphere, 8, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1905-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1905-2014, 2014
B. Noël, X. Fettweis, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 8, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, 2014
F. A. Ziemen, C. B. Rodehacke, and U. Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 10, 1817–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, 2014
B. de Boer, P. Stocchi, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014
S. R. M. Ligtenberg, P. Kuipers Munneke, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 1711–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, 2014
D. Barbi, G. Lohmann, K. Grosfeld, and M. Thoma
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2003–2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2003-2014, 2014
M. F. Loutre, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, P. Huybrechts, H. Goelzer, and E. Capron
Clim. Past, 10, 1541–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1541-2014, 2014
S. A. Khan, K. K. Kjeldsen, K. H. Kjær, S. Bevan, A. Luckman, A. Aschwanden, A. A. Bjørk, N. J. Korsgaard, J. E. Box, M. van den Broeke, T. M. van Dam, and A. Fitzner
The Cryosphere, 8, 1497–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1497-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1497-2014, 2014
N. Chauché, A. Hubbard, J.-C. Gascard, J. E. Box, R. Bates, M. Koppes, A. Sole, P. Christoffersen, and H. Patton
The Cryosphere, 8, 1457–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1457-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1457-2014, 2014
A. Robinson and H. Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 8, 1419–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, 2014
H. Fréville, E. Brun, G. Picard, N. Tatarinova, L. Arnaud, C. Lanconelli, C. Reijmer, and M. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 1361–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1361-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
K. Fujita and A. Sakai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2679–2694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2679-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2679-2014, 2014
T. Goelles, K. Grosfeld, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1395–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1395-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
J. T. M. Lenaerts, C. J. P. P. Smeets, K. Nishimura, M. Eijkelboom, W. Boot, M. R. van den Broeke, and W. J. van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 8, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, 2014
B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban
The Cryosphere, 8, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, 2014
C. J. Legleiter, M. Tedesco, L. C. Smith, A. E. Behar, and B. T. Overstreet
The Cryosphere, 8, 215–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-215-2014, 2014
A. Basu, M. G. Schultz, S. Schröder, L. Francois, X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, and T. Laepple
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-3193-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
W. Colgan, W. Abdalati, M. Citterio, B. Csatho, X. Fettweis, S. Luthcke, G. Moholdt, and M. Stober
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-537-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-537-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
J. M. van Wessem, C. H. Reijmer, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 8, 125–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, 2014
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
A. A. W. Fitzpatrick, A. L. Hubbard, J. E. Box, D. J. Quincey, D. van As, A. P. B. Mikkelsen, S. H. Doyle, C. F. Dow, B. Hasholt, and G. A. Jones
The Cryosphere, 8, 107–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-107-2014, 2014
X. Zhang, G. Lohmann, G. Knorr, and X. Xu
Clim. Past, 9, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2319-2013, 2013
T. Kobashi, K. Goto-Azuma, J. E. Box, C.-C. Gao, and T. Nakaegawa
Clim. Past, 9, 2299–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2299-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2299-2013, 2013
I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1499–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, 2013
A. K. Rennermalm, L. C. Smith, V. W. Chu, J. E. Box, R. R. Forster, M. R. Van den Broeke, D. Van As, and S. E. Moustafa
The Cryosphere, 7, 1433–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1433-2013, 2013
B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1463–1480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1463-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
H. Nagai, K. Fujita, T. Nuimura, and A. Sakai
The Cryosphere, 7, 1303–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1303-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1303-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
A. P. Ahlstrøm, S. B. Andersen, M. L. Andersen, H. Machguth, F. M. Nick, I. Joughin, C. H. Reijmer, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. P. Merryman Boncori, J. E. Box, M. Citterio, D. van As, R. S. Fausto, and A. Hubbard
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 277–287, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-277-2013, 2013
I. Joughin, S. B. Das, G. E. Flowers, M. D. Behn, R. B. Alley, M. A. King, B. E. Smith, J. L. Bamber, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. H. van Angelen
The Cryosphere, 7, 1185–1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, 2013
W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, E. van Meijgaard, and F. Kaspar
Clim. Past, 9, 1589–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, 2013
K. Fujita, A. Sakai, S. Takenaka, T. Nuimura, A. B. Surazakov, T. Sawagaki, and T. Yamanokuchi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1827–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1827-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1827-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
M. Gröger, E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, A. Moll, and D. Sein
Biogeosciences, 10, 3767–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013, 2013
Y. Zhang, Y. Hirabayashi, K. Fujita, S. Liu, and Q. Liu
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-2413-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-2413-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, T. Mote, J. Wahr, P. Alexander, J. E. Box, and B. Wouters
The Cryosphere, 7, 615–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-615-2013, 2013
C. L. Vernon, J. L. Bamber, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 599–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, 2013
C. Giry, T. Felis, M. Kölling, W. Wei, G. Lohmann, and S. Scheffers
Clim. Past, 9, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-841-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, B. Franco, M. Tedesco, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
T. Kobashi, D. T. Shindell, K. Kodera, J. E. Box, T. Nakaegawa, and K. Kawamura
Clim. Past, 9, 583–596, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-583-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-583-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, C. Lang, A. Belleflamme, M. Erpicum, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, 2013
J. J. Fürst, H. Goelzer, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 183–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-183-2013, 2013
I. M. Howat, S. de la Peña, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 7, 201–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
G. Lohmann, A. Wackerbarth, P. M. Langebroek, M. Werner, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, and A. Mangini
Clim. Past, 9, 89–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-89-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
B. Franco, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 7, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike
Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. R. van den Broeke, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 377–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
T. J. Reerink, M. A. Kliphuis, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 13–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Greenland
Brief communication: Storstrømmen Glacier, northeastern Greenland, primed for end-of-decade surge
Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet's response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years
Historically consistent mass loss projections of the Greenland ice sheet
A comparison of supraglacial meltwater features throughout contrasting melt seasons: southwest Greenland
Enhanced MOIDS-derived ice physical properties within CoLM revealing bare ice-snow-albedo feedback over Greenland
Ice speed of a Greenlandic tidewater glacier modulated by tide, melt, and rain
The Greenland Ice Sheet Large Ensemble (GrISLENS): Simulating the future of Greenland under climate variability
Seasonal and interannual variability of freshwater sources for Greenland's fjords
A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt
Projections of precipitation and temperatures in Greenland and the impact of spatially uniform anomalies on the evolution of the ice sheet
Impacts of differing melt regimes on satellite radar waveforms and elevation retrievals
The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction
Firn seismic anisotropy in the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream from ambient-noise surface waves
Factors influencing lake surface water temperature variability in West Greenland and the role of the ice sheet
First results of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.4
Advancing interpretation of incoherent scattering in ice penetrating radar data used for ice core site selection
Calving front monitoring at a subseasonal resolution: a deep learning application for Greenland glaciers
Modeled Greenland Ice Sheet evolution constrained by ice-core-derived Holocene elevation histories
Bias in modeled Greenland ice sheet melt revealed by ASCAT
Mapping the vertical heterogeneity of Greenland's firn from 2011–2019 using airborne radar and laser altimetry
Subglacial valleys preserved in the highlands of south and east Greenland record restricted ice extent during past warmer climates
Coupling MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) with PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) mitigates the positive melt–elevation feedback
Cloud- and ice-albedo feedbacks drive greater Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to warming in CMIP6 than in CMIP5
Evaluating different geothermal heat-flow maps as basal boundary conditions during spin-up of the Greenland ice sheet
Seasonal evolution of the supraglacial drainage network at Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, between 2016 and 2020
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Precursor of disintegration of Greenland's largest floating ice tongue
An evaluation of a physics-based firn model and a semi-empirical firn model across the Greenland Ice Sheet (1980–2020)
Subglacial lake activity beneath the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The control of short-term ice mélange weakening episodes on calving activity at major Greenland outlet glaciers
Weekly to monthly terminus variability of Greenland's marine-terminating outlet glaciers
The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat
Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland
Assessing bare-ice albedo simulated by MAR over the Greenland ice sheet (2000–2021) and implications for meltwater production estimates
Drill-site selection for cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating of the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet
A new Level 4 multi-sensor ice surface temperature product for the Greenland Ice Sheet
High-resolution imaging of supraglacial hydrological features on the Greenland Ice Sheet with NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) instrument suite
The impact of climate oscillations on the surface energy budget over the Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate
GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Unravelling the long-term, locally heterogenous response of Greenland glaciers observed in archival photography
Simulating the Holocene deglaciation across a marine-terminating portion of southwestern Greenland in response to marine and atmospheric forcings
Comparison of ice dynamics using full-Stokes and Blatter–Pattyn approximation: application to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model
Modelling the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties
Multi-decadal retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northwest and central-west Greenland
Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century
Proper orthogonal decomposition of ice velocity identifies drivers of flow variability at Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ)
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
Automated detection and analysis of surface calving waves with a terrestrial radar interferometer at the front of Eqip Sermia, Greenland
Jonas K. Andersen, Rasmus P. Meyer, Flora S. Huiban, Mads L. Dømgaard, Romain Millan, and Anders A. Bjørk
The Cryosphere, 19, 1717–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1717-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1717-2025, 2025
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Storstrømmen Glacier in northeastern Greenland goes through cycles of sudden flow speed-ups (known as surges) followed by long quiet phases. It is currently in its quiet phase, but recent measurements suggest it may be nearing conditions for a new surge, possibly between 2027 and 2040. We also observed several lake drainages that caused brief increases in glacier flow but did not trigger a surge. Continued monitoring is essential to understand how these processes influence glacier behavior.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, and Johanna Beckmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709, 2025
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This study explores how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) responds to different levels of stabilized global warming, and if the climate cools back. Our findings show that global temperature increases beyond +2.3 °C mark a critical threshold. We also highlight the importance of limiting warming to avoid irreversible ice loss, as well as the potential for recovery after temporarily exceeding warming thresholds if action is taken quickly to lower global temperatures.
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 19, 1205–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, 2025
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Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet significantly contributes to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities globally. To improve future sea-level projections, we simulated ice sheet behavior until 2100, initializing the model with observed geometry and using various climate models. Predictions indicate a sea-level rise of 32 to 228 mm by 2100, with climate model uncertainty being the main source of variability in projections.
Emily Glen, Amber Leeson, Alison F. Banwell, Jennifer Maddalena, Diarmuid Corr, Olivia Atkins, Brice Noël, and Malcolm McMillan
The Cryosphere, 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, 2025
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We compare surface meltwater features from optical satellite imagery in the Russell–Leverett glacier catchment during high (2019) and low (2018) melt years. In the high melt year, features appear at higher elevations, meltwater systems are more connected, small lakes are more frequent, and slush is more widespread. These findings provide insights into how a warming climate, where high melt years become common, could alter meltwater distribution and dynamics on the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Shuyang Guo, Yongjiu Dai, Hua Yuan, and Hongbin Liang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-230, 2025
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The Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation Model Version 4 has only been used to evaluate bare ice albedo in land surface models, with necessary ice property data lacking quality control. We integrated this model into our land surface model and improved bare ice properties using quality-controlled satellite data. Our findings show regional warming and reduced snow cover in Greenland’s bare ice region, driven by changes in bare ice properties through the bare ice-snow-albedo feedback.
Shin Sugiyama, Shun Tsutaki, Daiki Sakakibara, Izumi Asaji, Ken Kondo, Yefan Wang, Evgeny Podolskiy, Guillaume Jouvet, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 19, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-525-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-525-2025, 2025
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We report flow speed variations near the front of a tidewater glacier in Greenland. Ice flow near the glacier front is crucial for the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, but in situ data are hard to obtain. Our unique in situ GPS data revealed fine details of short-term speed variations associated with melting, ocean tides, and rain. The results are important for understanding the response of tidewater glaciers to changing environments, such as warming, more frequent rain, and ice thinning.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackerman, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, 2025
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This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland Ice Sheet over the next 20–30 years, but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Anneke Louise Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, 2025
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Freshwater enters Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge dominates freshwater input into fjords in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are most significant. Seasonally resolved data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the total freshwater influx, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
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Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, and Niklas Boers
The Cryosphere, 18, 5825–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024, 2024
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Using the latest climate models, we update the understanding of how the Greenland ice sheet responds to climate changes. We found that precipitation and temperature changes in Greenland vary across different regions. Our findings suggest that using uniform estimates for temperature and precipitation for modelling the response of the ice sheet can overestimate ice loss in Greenland. Therefore, this study highlights the need for spatially resolved data in predicting the ice sheet's future.
Alexander C. Ronan, Robert L. Hawley, and Jonathan W. Chipman
The Cryosphere, 18, 5673–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5673-2024, 2024
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We generate a 2010–2021 time series of CryoSat-2 waveform shape metrics on the Greenland Ice Sheet, and we compare it to CryoSat-2 elevation data to investigate the reliability of two algorithms used to derive elevations from the SIRAL radar altimeter. Retracked elevations are found to depend on a waveform's leading-edge width in the dry-snow zone. The study indicates that retracking algorithms must consider significant climate events and snow conditions when assessing elevation change.
Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot
The Cryosphere, 18, 5519–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, 2024
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Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
Emma Pearce, Dimitri Zigone, Coen Hofstede, Andreas Fichtner, Joachim Rimpot, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Johannes Freitag, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 18, 4917–4932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4917-2024, 2024
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Our study near EastGRIP camp in Greenland shows varying firn properties by direction (crucial for studying ice stream stability, structure, surface mass balance, and past climate conditions). We used dispersion curve analysis of Love and Rayleigh waves to show firn is nonuniform along and across the flow of an ice stream due to wind patterns, seasonal variability, and the proximity to the edge of the ice stream. This method better informs firn structure, advancing ice stream understanding.
Laura Carrea, Christopher J. Merchant, Richard I. Woolway, and Niall McCarroll
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2926, 2024
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Lakes in Greenland serve as sentinel of climate change. Satellites can be used to monitor water temperature and ice. Using 28 years measurements from satellite, we conclude that lakes are overall warmer than previously thought. The lakes connected to the ice sheet are cooler than the rest because of cold glacial meltwater inflow. Change in water temperature can impact light availability, nutrient cycling, and oxygen levels crucial for lake ecosystem but can also have influence on the ice sheet.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Ellen Lucinda Mutter and Nicholas Holschuh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2450, 2024
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“Ice Penetrating Radar” is a technology that lets us see through ice sheets, capturing their organized, layered structure. But near the ice bottom, radar data are much more complicated, with signals that are disordered and often ignored. Here, we work to better understand these complex signals by comparing radar data to measurements of ice structure from ice cores. We show these signals reflect structural changes in the ice itself, and can inform our search for ancient climate records.
Erik Loebel, Mirko Scheinert, Martin Horwath, Angelika Humbert, Julia Sohn, Konrad Heidler, Charlotte Liebezeit, and Xiao Xiang Zhu
The Cryosphere, 18, 3315–3332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3315-2024, 2024
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Comprehensive datasets of calving-front changes are essential for studying and modeling outlet glaciers. Current records are limited in temporal resolution due to manual delineation. We use deep learning to automatically delineate calving fronts for 23 glaciers in Greenland. Resulting time series resolve long-term, seasonal, and subseasonal patterns. We discuss the implications of our results and provide the cryosphere community with a data product and an implementation of our processing system.
Mikkel Langgaard Lauritzen, Anne Munck Solgaard, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Aslak Grindsted, Brice Noël, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, 2024
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We study the Holocene period, which started about 11,700 years ago, through 841 computer simulations to better understand the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We accurately match historical surface elevation records, verifying our model. The simulations show that an ice bridge that used to connect the Greenland ice sheet to Canada collapsed around 4,900 years ago and still influences the ice sheet. Over the past 500 years, the Greenland ice sheet has contributed 12 millimeters to sea levels.
Anna Puggaard, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Nagler, Stefan Scheiblauer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Louise S. Sørensen, Jan Wuite, and Anne M. Solgaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1108, 2024
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Regional climate models are currently the only source for assessing the melt volume on a global scale of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study compares the modeled melt volume with observations from weather stations and melt extent observed from ASCAT to assess the performance of the models. It highlights the importance of critically evaluating model outputs with high-quality satellite measurements to improve the understanding of variability among models.
Anja Rutishauser, Kirk M. Scanlan, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nanna B. Karlsson, Nicolas Jullien, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Robert S. Fausto, and Penelope How
The Cryosphere, 18, 2455–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, 2024
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The Greenland Ice Sheet interior is covered by a layer of firn, which is important for surface meltwater runoff and contributions to global sea-level rise. Here, we combine airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry measurements to delineate vertically homogeneous and heterogeneous firn. Our results reveal changes in firn between 2011–2019, aligning well with known climatic events. This approach can be used to outline firn areas primed for significantly changing future meltwater runoff.
Guy J. G. Paxman, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Aisling M. Dolan, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1467–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, 2024
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This study uses airborne radar data and satellite imagery to map mountainous topography hidden beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the landscape records the former extent and configuration of ice masses that were restricted to areas of high topography. Computer models of ice flow indicate that valley glaciers eroded this landscape millions of years ago when local air temperatures were at least 4 °C higher than today and Greenland’s ice volume was < 10 % of that of the modern ice sheet.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
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The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
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The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Lauren D. Rawlins, David M. Rippin, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Kang Yang
The Cryosphere, 17, 4729–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, 2023
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We map and quantify surface rivers and lakes at Humboldt Glacier to examine seasonal evolution and provide new insights of network configuration and behaviour. A widespread supraglacial drainage network exists, expanding up the glacier as seasonal runoff increases. Large interannual variability affects the areal extent of this network, controlled by high- vs. low-melt years, with late summer network persistence likely preconditioning the surface for earlier drainage activity the following year.
Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, 2023
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We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
Johanna Beckmann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023
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Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events.
With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent.
Strong melt events may considerably contribute to Greenland's mass loss, which in turn strongly determines future sea level rise. How important these extreme melt events could be in the future is assessed in this study for the first time.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Ole Zeising, Martin Rückamp, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Erik Loebel, Jörg Brauchle, Karsten Stebner, Dietmar Gross, Rabea Sondershaus, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 17, 2851–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, 2023
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The largest floating glacier mass in Greenland, the 79° N Glacier, is showing signs of instability. We investigate how crack formation at the glacier's calving front has changed over the last decades by using satellite imagery and airborne data. The calving front is about to lose contact to stabilizing ice islands. Simulations show that the glacier will accelerate as a result of this, leading to an increase in ice discharge of more than 5.1 % if its calving front retreats by 46 %.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Yubin Fan, Chang-Qing Ke, Xiaoyi Shen, Yao Xiao, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Andrew J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 17, 1775–1786, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, 2023
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We used the new-generation ICESat-2 altimeter to detect and monitor active subglacial lakes in unprecedented spatiotemporal detail. We created a new inventory of 18 active subglacial lakes as well as their elevation and volume changes during 2019–2020, which provides an improved understanding of how the Greenland subglacial water system operates and how these lakes are fed by water from the ice surface.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 17, 309–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, 2023
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We characterized short-lived episodes of ice mélange weakening (IMW) at the front of three major Greenland outlet glaciers. Through a continuous detection at the front of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier during the June-to-September period from 2018 to 2021, we found that 87 % of the IMW episodes occurred prior to a large-scale calving event. Using a simple model for ice mélange motion, we further characterized the IMW process as self-sustained through the existence of an IMW–calving feedback.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 17, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, 2023
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The frontal positions of most ice-sheet-based glaciers in Greenland vary seasonally. On average, these glaciers begin retreating in May and begin advancing in October, and the difference between their most advanced and most retreated positions is 220 m. The timing may be related to the timing of melt on the ice sheet, and the seasonal length variation may be related to glacier speed. These seasonal variations can affect glacier behavior and, consequently, how much ice is lost from the ice sheet.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, and Ian M. Howat
The Cryosphere, 16, 4679–4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, 2022
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We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
Evan Carnahan, Ginny Catania, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 16, 4305–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, 2022
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The Greenland Ice Sheet primarily loses mass through increased ice discharge. We find changes in discharge from outlet glaciers are initiated by ocean warming, which causes a change in the balance of forces resisting gravity and leads to acceleration. Vulnerable conditions for sustained retreat and acceleration are predetermined by the glacier-fjord geometry and exist around Greenland, suggesting increases in ice discharge may be sustained into the future despite a pause in ocean warming.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
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The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
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Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Michael Studinger, Serdar S. Manizade, Matthew A. Linkswiler, and James K. Yungel
The Cryosphere, 16, 3649–3668, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, 2022
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The footprint density and high-resolution imagery of airborne surveys reveal details in supraglacial hydrological features that are currently not obtainable from spaceborne data. The accuracy and resolution of airborne measurements complement spaceborne measurements, can support calibration and validation of spaceborne methods, and provide information necessary for process studies of the hydrological system on ice sheets that currently cannot be achieved from spaceborne observations alone.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Michael A. Cooper, Paulina Lewińska, William A. P. Smith, Edwin R. Hancock, Julian A. Dowdeswell, and David M. Rippin
The Cryosphere, 16, 2449–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, 2022
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Here we use old photographs gathered several decades ago to expand the temporal record of glacier change in part of East Greenland. This is important because the longer the record of past glacier change, the better we are at predicting future glacier behaviour. Our work also shows that despite all these glaciers retreating, the rate at which they do this varies markedly. It is therefore important to consider outlet glaciers from Greenland individually to take account of this differing behaviour.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Martin Rückamp, Thomas Kleiner, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, 2022
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We present a comparative modelling study between the full-Stokes (FS) and Blatter–Pattyn (BP) approximation applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Both stress regimes are implemented in one single ice sheet code to eliminate numerical issues. The simulations unveil minor differences in the upper ice stream but become considerable at the grounding line of the 79° North Glacier. Model differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law.
Daniel Clarkson, Emma Eastoe, and Amber Leeson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1597–1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, 2022
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The Greenland ice sheet has seen large amounts of melt in recent years, and accurately modelling temperatures is vital to understand how much of the ice sheet is melting. We estimate the probability of melt from ice surface temperature data to identify which areas of the ice sheet have experienced melt and estimate temperature quantiles. Our results suggest that for large areas of the ice sheet, melt has become more likely over the past 2 decades and high temperatures are also becoming warmer.
Benjamin Joseph Davison, Tom Cowton, Andrew Sole, Finlo Cottier, and Pete Nienow
The Cryosphere, 16, 1181–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, 2022
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The ocean is an important driver of Greenland glacier retreat. Icebergs influence ocean temperature in the vicinity of glaciers, which will affect glacier retreat rates, but the effect of icebergs on water temperature is poorly understood. In this study, we use a model to show that icebergs cause large changes to water properties next to Greenland's glaciers, which could influence ocean-driven glacier retreat around Greenland.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 16, 807–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, 2022
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We used satellite images to create a comprehensive record of annual glacier change in northwest Greenland from 1972 through 2021. We found that nearly all glaciers in our study area have retreated and glacier retreat accelerated from around 1996. Comparing these results with climate data, we found that glacier retreat is most sensitive to water runoff and moderately sensitive to ocean temperatures. These can affect glacier fronts in several ways, so no process clearly dominates glacier retreat.
Katharina M. Holube, Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, 2022
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We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.
David W. Ashmore, Douglas W. F. Mair, Jonathan E. Higham, Stephen Brough, James M. Lea, and Isabel J. Nias
The Cryosphere, 16, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, 2022
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In this paper we explore the use of a transferrable and flexible statistical technique to try and untangle the multiple influences on marine-terminating glacier dynamics, as measured from space. We decompose a satellite-derived ice velocity record into ranked sets of static maps and temporal coefficients. We present evidence that the approach can identify velocity variability mainly driven by changes in terminus position and velocity variation mainly driven by subglacial hydrological processes.
Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021
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Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, Andrea Walter, Guillaume Jouvet, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 5659–5674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, 2021
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We developed a novel automated method for the detection and the quantification of ocean waves generated by glacier calving. This method was applied to data recorded with a terrestrial radar interferometer at Eqip Sermia, Greenland. Results show a high calving activity at the glacier front sector ending in deep water linked with more frequent meltwater plumes. This suggests that rising subglacial meltwater plumes strongly affect glacier calving in deep water, but weakly in shallow water.
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Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While...
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