Articles | Volume 8, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Assessing spatio-temporal variability and trends in modelled and measured Greenland Ice Sheet albedo (2000–2013)
P. M. Alexander
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
City College of New York, City University of New York, 160 Convent Ave., New York, NY, 10031 USA
Graduate Center of the City University of New York, 365 5th Ave., New York, NY, 10016 USA
M. Tedesco
City College of New York, City University of New York, 160 Convent Ave., New York, NY, 10031 USA
Graduate Center of the City University of New York, 365 5th Ave., New York, NY, 10016 USA
X. Fettweis
Department of Geography, Université de Liège, Place du 20-Août, 7, 4000 Liège, Belgium
R. S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
C. J. P. P. Smeets
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
M. R. van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Ella Gilbert, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Marte G. Hofsteenge, Willem Jan van de Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Christiaan Timo van Dalum, Xavier Fettweis, Siddharth Gumber, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Damien Maure, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Maurice van Tiggelen, Kristiina Verro, and Priscilla A. Mooney
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A new scheme has been developed in a snowpack model (SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus), to consider the impact of liquid water dynamics on bare ice, including albedo feedback and refreezing. When applied to the Mera Glacier in Nepal, the model reveals strong seasonal effects on the energy and mass balance, with increased melting in dry seasons and significant refreezing during the monsoon. This development improves mass balance modeling under increasing rainfall and bare ice exposure due to climate warming.
Daniel Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1151, 2026
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During the Early Pleistocene, glacial cycles closely follow Earth’s obliquity, even though summer insolation is strongly modulated by precession. Sensitivity experiments with a zonally averaged energy balance model show a pronounced obliquity cycle in polar temperatures. This arises from obliquity control on winter sea ice, which regulates ocean heat release, while precession has a weaker effect on sea ice and temperature.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 1405–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026, 2026
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is currently thinning, especially at major outlet glaciers. Including present-day ice thinning rates in models is a modeller's choice and can affect future projections. This study quantifies the impact of current imbalance on forced future projections, revealing strong regional and short-term (up to 2100) effects when these mass change rates are included.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Tesse E. A. van den Aker, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-462, 2026
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The firn layer, i.e. permanent snow, regulates how an ice sheet responds to climate change. Firn models are forced with with climate data at time steps from sub-daily to annual in literature, however, implications are barely evaluated. We test the impact of different climate forcing time steps on the modeled firn layer. We conclude that the climate forcing time step (1) affects firn model output, (2) can lead to non-physical behaviour, and (3) that resolving at least a diurnal cycle is required.
Thirza N. Feenstra, Willem Jan van de Berg, Gerd-Jan van Zadelhoff, David P. Donovan, Christiaan T. van Dalum, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 1323–1344, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1323-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1323-2026, 2026
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Cloud representation brings large uncertainties in polar climate modeling. We show the first evaluation of Greenland clouds in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.4) with new EarthCARE satellite data. Comparing lidar and radar observations and retrieved cloud profiles with co-located RACMO output, we find RACMO captures low ice clouds but underestimates high clouds, mid-altitude liquid clouds, and snowfall. These results highlight EarthCARE's potential to improve polar climate models.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 1217–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026, 2026
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Ice sheet models to simulate future sea level rise require parameterizations, like for the friction at the bedrock. Studies have quantified the effect of using different parameterizations, and some have concluded that projections are sensitive to the choice of the specific parameterization. In this study, we show that you can make an ice sheet model sensitive to the basal friction parameterization, and that for different modellers choices you can also make the model insensitive to this.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
The Cryosphere, 20, 757–775, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026, 2026
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The bedrock deformation in response to a melting ice sheet provides significant negative feedback on Antarctic ice mass loss in the next 500 years. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models. Our results show that projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribution to sea-level rise using an ice sheet - 3D GIA (glacial isostatic adjustment) model can be approximated using a laterally varying ELRA (elastic lithosphere, relaxed asthenosphere) model or a 1D GIA model when the recommended parameters are used.
Ida Haven, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Laura J. Dietrich, Sonja Wahl, Jason E. Box, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Alun Hubbard, Stephan T. Kral, Joachim Reuder, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 20, 573–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-573-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-573-2026, 2026
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Three independent Eddy-Covariance measurement systems deployed on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet are compared. Using this dataset, we evaluate the reproducibility and quantify the differences between the systems. The fidelity of two regional climate models in capturing the seasonal variability in the latent and sensible heat flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere is assessed. We identify differences between observations and model simulations, especially during the winter period.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 20, 427–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-427-2026, 2026
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Chloë Marie Paice, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 20, 309–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-309-2026, 2026
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To study Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere interactions, we coupled an ice sheet model to a regional climate model and performed simulations of differing coupling complexity over 1000 years under a high-warming climate scenario. They reveal that at first melt at the ice sheet margin is reduced by changing wind patterns. But over time, as the ice sheet melts and its surface lowers, precipitation patterns and cloudiness also change and amplify ice mass loss over the entire ice sheet.
Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Bert Wouters, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 20, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-87-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-87-2026, 2026
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We produce annual maps of Antarctic surface melt volumes from 2012 to 2021 using satellite microwave data. We detect melting days from thresholds on the satellite signal and then use actual melt measurements from weather stations to convert those signals into water‑equivalent volumes. Our maps capture known melt hotspots and show slightly lower totals than climate models. This dataset supports climate and ice‑shelf studies.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
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We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4593–4612, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4593-2025, 2025
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, storm surges that are rarer are given a higher weight than moderate storm surges. Additionally, we found that the performance of some of the neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the future application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 19, 5157–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, 2025
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firns, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict the 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcing datasets. Our findings suggest that, in low-emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, in a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Thomas Dethinne, Nicolas Ghilain, Christoph Kittel, Benjamin Lecart, Xavier Fettweis, and François Jonard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, 2025
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This study replace standard vegetation input of a regional climate model with a satellite-based vegetation dataset to assess how vegetation influences climate during extreme events and to test the sensitivity of the model. The results show a non-linear sensitivity to vegetation, and using an observation-based vegetation input allows for a better representation of the extreme events, highlight the need for an advanced representation of vegetation in climate model to improve climate predictions.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Kristiina Verro, Cecilia Äijälä, Roberta Pirazzini, Ruzica Dadic, Damien Maure, Willem Jan van de Berg, Giacomo Traversa, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Petteri Uotila, Xavier Fettweis, Biagio Di Mauro, and Milla Johansson
The Cryosphere, 19, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4409-2025, 2025
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Accurately representing Antarctic sea ice is essential for reliable climate and ocean model predictions. We evaluated how different models simulate the sea ice's sunlight reflectivity (called albedo) using field and satellite data. Models with simple albedo schemes performed well in limited cases but missed key processes. The advanced scheme in the MetROMS-UHel ocean model provided the most accurate results, including observed day–night albedo changes observed during a field campaign.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
The Cryosphere, 19, 4061–4090, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4061-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature, and wind speed compare well with in situ and remote sensing observations.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4933–4955, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4933-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4933-2025, 2025
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This paper describes the measurements from the 19 IMAU (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht) automatic weather stations that operated on the Antarctic ice sheet from 1995 through 2022. These stations also measured the net surface radiation and surface height change, allowing for the quantification of the surface energy and mass balance at hourly resolution. These data are invaluable for the evaluation of atmospheric models and for the detection of climatological changes.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, 2025
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We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Anneke L. Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 19, 3897–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3897-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3897-2025, 2025
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Freshwater flows into Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge (e.g. calving icebergs) dominates freshwater input in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are the most significant. Seasonal data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the monthly freshwater input, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Weiran Li, Stef Lhermitte, Bert Wouters, Cornelis Slobbe, Max Brils, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 19, 3419–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3419-2025, 2025
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Due to recurrent melt and refreezing events in recent decades, the snow conditions over Greenland have changed. To observe this, we use a parameter (leading edge width; LeW) derived from satellite altimetry and analyse its spatial and temporal variations. By comparing the LeW variations with modelled firn parameters, we concluded that the 2012 melt event and the recent and increasingly frequent melt events have a long-lasting impact on the volume scattering of Greenland firn.
Zhengwen Yan, Jiangjun Ran, Pavel Ditmar, C. K. Shum, Roland Klees, Patrick Smith, and Xavier Fettweis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4253–4275, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4253-2025, 2025
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The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has greatly improved our understanding of changes in Earth's gravity field over time. A novel mass concentration (mascon) dataset, GCL-Mascon2024, was determined by leveraging the short-arc approach, advanced spatial constraints, a frequency-dependent noise processing strategy, and parameterization-integrating natural boundaries, aiming to enhance accuracy for monitoring mass transportation on Earth.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 21, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, 2025
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Glacial cycle duration changed from 41 000 to 100 000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation and simple ice–climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate for warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, 2025
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Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 545–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, 2025
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In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a dataset of 712 Holocene water level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
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The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
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During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
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The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
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Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Laura J. Dietrich, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, 2024
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The contribution of the humidity flux to the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is uncertain. Here, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR using a multi-annual dataset of eddy covariance measurements and bulk estimates of the humidity flux. The humidity flux largely contributes to the summer surface mass balance (SMB) in the accumulation zone, indicating its potential importance for the annual SMB in a warming climate.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
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We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Damien Maure, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Alison Delhasse, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4645–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Studies have already shown that Greenland and the Canadian Arctic are experiencing a record increase in melting rates, while Svalbard has been relatively less impacted. Looking at those regions but also extending the study to Iceland and the Russian Arctic archipelagoes, we see a heterogeneity in the melting-rate response to the Arctic warming, with the Russian archipelagoes experiencing lower melting rates than other regions.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
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We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Lena G. Buth, Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Sophie de Roda Husman, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Bert Wouters
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, 2023
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
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The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
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We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Xavier Fettweis, Oluwanisola Ibikunle, Carl Leuschen, John Paden, Daniel Gomez-Garcia, and Emily Arnold
The Cryosphere, 17, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, 2023
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Alaskan glaciers' loss of ice mass contributes significantly to ocean surface rise. It is important to know how deeply and how much snow accumulates on these glaciers to comprehend and analyze the glacial mass loss process. We reported the observed seasonal snow depth distribution from our radar data taken in Alaska in 2018 and 2021, developed a method to estimate the annual snow accumulation rate at Mt. Wrangell caldera, and identified transition zones from wet-snow zones to ablation zones.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Sébastien Doutreloup, Xavier Fettweis, Ramin Rahif, Essam Elnagar, Mohsen S. Pourkiaei, Deepak Amaripadath, and Shady Attia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3039–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, 2022
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This data set provides historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) weather data for 12 cities in Belgium. This data set is intended for architects or building or energy designers. In particular, it makes available to all users hourly open-access weather data according to certain standards to recreate a Typical and an Extreme Meteorological Year. In addition, it provides hourly data on heatwaves from 1980 to 2100. Weather data were produced from the outputs of the MAR model simulations.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
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To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Cited articles
Bamber, J. L., Ekholm, S., and Krabill, W. B.: A new, high-resolution digital elevation model of Greenland fully validated with airborne laser altimeter data, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 6733–6745, 2001.
Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Hurkmans, R. T. W. L., Dowdeswell, J. A., Gogineni, S. P., Howat, I., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Palmer, S., Rignot, E., and Steinhage, D.: A new bed elevation dataset for Greenland, The Cryosphere, 7, 499–510, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-499-2013, 2013.
Bøggild, C. E., Brandt, R. E., Brown, K. J., Warren, S. G.: The ablation zone in northeast Greenland: ice types, albedos and impurities, J. Glaciol., 56, 101–113, 2010.
Box, J. E. and Rinke, A.: Evaluation of Greenland Ice Sheet surface climate in the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model using automatic weather station data, J. Climate, 16, 1302–1319, 2002.
Box, J. E., Bromwich, D. H., Veenhuis, B. A., Bai, L.-S., Stroeve, J. C., Rogers, J. C., Steffen, K., Haran, T., and Wang, S.-H.: Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance variability (1988–2004) from calibrated Polar MM5 output, J. Climate, 19, 2783–2800, 2006.
Box, J. E., Fettweis, X., Stroeve, J. C., Tedesco, M., Hall, D. K., and Steffen, K.: Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers, The Cryosphere, 6, 821–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-821-2012, 2012.
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Ettema, J., van den Broeke, M. R., van Meijgaard, E., van de Berg, W. J., Bamber, J. L., Box, J. E., and Bales, R. C.: Higher surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by high-resolution climate modeling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038110, 2009.
Fettweis, X.: Reconstruction of the 1979–2006 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 1, 21–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-21-2007, 2007.
Fettweis, X., Gallée, H., Lefebre, F., and van Ypersele, J.-P.: Greenland surface mass balance simulated by a regional climate model and comparison with satellite-derived data in 1990–1991, Clim. Dynam., 24, 623–640, 2005.
Fettweis, X., van Ypersele, J.-P., Gallée, H., Lefebre, F., and Lefebvre, W.: The 1979–2005 Greenland ice sheet melt extent from passive microwave data using an improved version of the melt retrieval XPGR algorithm, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028787, 2007.
Fettweis, X., Tedesco, M., van den Broeke, M., and Ettema, J.: Melting trends over the Greenland ice sheet (1958–2009) from spaceborne microwave data and regional climate models, The Cryosphere, 5, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-359-2011, 2011.
Fettweis, X., Hanna, E., Lang, C., Belleflamme, A., Erpicum, M., and Gallée, H.: Brief communication "Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet", The Cryosphere, 7, 241–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-241-2013, 2013a.
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Gallée, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013b.
Franco, B., Fettweis, X., Lang, C., and Erpicum, M.: Impact of spatial resolution on the modelling of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance between 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 6, 695–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-695-2012, 2012.
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Lefebre, F., Fettweis, X., Gallée, H., van Ypersele, J.-P., Marbaix, P., Greuell, W., and Calanca, P.: Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate model simulation over Greenland, Clim. Dynam., 25, 99–116, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0005-8, 2005.
Nghiem, S. V., Hall, D. K., Mote, T. L., Tedesco, M., Albert, M. R., Keegan, K., Shuman, C. A., DiGirolamo, N. E., and Neumann, G.: The extreme melt across the Greenland ice sheet in 2012, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053611, 2012.
Rae, J. G. L., Adalgeirsdóttir, G., Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hewitt, H. T., Lowe, J. A., Lucas-Picher, P., Mottram, R. H., Payne, A. J., Ridley, J. K., Shannon, S. R., van de Berg, W. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models, The Cryosphere, 6, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1275-2012, 2012.
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A. and Lenaerts, J.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011.
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Tedesco, M. and Fettweis, X.: 21st century projections of surface mass balance changes for major drainage systems of the Greenland ice sheet, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 045050, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045405, 2012.
Tedesco, M., Serreze, M., and Fettweis, X.: Diagnosing the extreme surface melt event over southwestern Greenland in 2007, The Cryosphere, 2, 159–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-159-2008, 2008.
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