Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
Research article
25 Mar 2021
Research article |  | 25 Mar 2021

The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica

Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Related authors

Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689,,, 2024
Short summary
Predicting ocean-induced ice-shelf melt rates using deep learning
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Wai L. Woo, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 499–518,,, 2023
Short summary
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica
Emily A. Hill, Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Matthew Collins
The Cryosphere, 15, 4675–4702,,, 2021
Short summary
Exploring mechanisms responsible for tidal modulation in flow of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf
Sebastian H. R. Rosier and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 14, 17–37,,, 2020
Short summary
Tidal bending of ice shelves as a mechanism for large-scale temporal variations in ice flow
Sebastian H. R. Rosier and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 1699–1713,,, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623,,, 2024
Short summary
Modeling the timing of Patagonian Ice Sheet retreat in the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398,,, 2024
Short summary
Using specularity content to evaluate eight geothermal heat flow maps of Totten Glacier
Yan Huang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Yiliang Ma, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 18, 103–119,,, 2024
Short summary
Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415,,, 2023
Short summary
Regularization and L-curves in ice sheet inverse models: a case study in the Filchner–Ronne catchment
Michael Wolovick, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, and Martin Rückamp
The Cryosphere, 17, 5027–5060,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Anandakrishnan, S. and Alley, R.: Tidal forcing of basal seismicity of ice stream C, West Antarctica, observed far inland, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 15813–15196, 1997. 
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M.,  Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, 2019. 
Brock, W. A. and Carpenter, S. R.: Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings, Ecol. Monogr., 80, 353–367, 2010. 
Chisholm, R. A. and Filotas, E.: Critical slowing down as an indicator of transitions in two-species models, J. Theor. Biol., 257, 142–149, 2009. 
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., and Plattner, G.-K., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1137–1216, 2013. 
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.