Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 25 Mar 2021
| 25 Mar 2021
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Sebastian H. R. Rosier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria
University, Newcastle, UK
Ronja Reese
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412
Potsdam, Germany
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412
Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket
2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Jan De Rydt
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria
University, Newcastle, UK
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria
University, Newcastle, UK
Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412
Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam,
Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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- Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation M. Rietkerk et al. 10.1126/science.abj0359
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- Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene G. Balco et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1787-2023
- AMOC Stabilization Under the Interaction With Tipping Polar Ice Sheets S. Sinet et al. 10.1029/2022GL100305
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup H. Åkesson et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29529-5
- Foehn winds at Pine Island Glacier and their role in ice changes D. Francis et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3041-2023
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Legitimacy and justifiability of non-state geoengineering A. Lockley et al. 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103210
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- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. 10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world R. Bastiaansen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8
- Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density T. Smith & N. Boers 10.1038/s41559-023-02194-7
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
- Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies B. Davison et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-36990-3
- Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China Z. Chang et al. 10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Sea-Level Rise: From Global Perspectives to Local Services G. Durand et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.709595
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- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
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- Der anthropogene Klimawandel S. Kühl & M. Kühl 10.21706/aep-17-1-5
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. 10.1029/2023GL102880
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
- A stylized model of stochastic ecosystems with alternative stable states M. Stecher & S. Baumgärtner 10.1111/nrm.12345
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- Drivers and Reversibility of Abrupt Ocean State Transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica J. Caillet et al. 10.1029/2022JC018929
- Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 04 Feb 2025
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other...
