Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 25 Mar 2021
| 25 Mar 2021
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Sebastian H. R. Rosier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria
University, Newcastle, UK
Ronja Reese
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412
Potsdam, Germany
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412
Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket
2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Jan De Rydt
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria
University, Newcastle, UK
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria
University, Newcastle, UK
Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412
Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam,
Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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46 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change S. Bevan et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.57
- Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise J. Sutter et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- Where should hydrology go? An early-career perspective on the next IAHS Scientific Decade: 2023–2032 T. van Hateren et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2170754
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales T. Lenton et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- A thicker Antarctic ice stream during the mid-Pliocene warm period M. Mas e Braga et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00983-3
- A multi-realm perspective on applying potential tipping points to environmental decision-making M. Harper et al. 10.1139/er-2023-0042
- Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation M. Rietkerk et al. 10.1126/science.abj0359
- Der anthropogene Klimawandel S. Kühl & M. Kühl 10.21706/aep-17-1-5
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. 10.1029/2023GL102880
- Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation M. Weber et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27053-6
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
- A stylized model of stochastic ecosystems with alternative stable states M. Stecher & S. Baumgärtner 10.1111/nrm.12345
- The Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model v1.0 (StISSM v1.0) V. Verjans et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022
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- Stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the pre-industrial Holocene R. Jones et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00309-5
- Drivers and Reversibility of Abrupt Ocean State Transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica J. Caillet et al. 10.1029/2022JC018929
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- AMOC Stabilization Under the Interaction With Tipping Polar Ice Sheets S. Sinet et al. 10.1029/2022GL100305
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Effects of calving and submarine melting on steady states and stability of buttressed marine ice sheets M. Haseloff & O. Sergienko 10.1017/jog.2022.29
- Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup H. Åkesson et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29529-5
- Potential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment P. Keys et al. 10.1073/pnas.2210036119
- Foehn winds at Pine Island Glacier and their role in ice changes D. Francis et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3041-2023
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems S. George et al. 10.1088/1402-4896/acde20
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- Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world R. Bastiaansen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8
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- Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density T. Smith & N. Boers 10.1038/s41559-023-02194-7
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
- Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise: Findings From a Structured Expert Judgement Approach J. Bamber et al. 10.1029/2022EF002772
- Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost T. Ehlers et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104197
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- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
- Drivers of Pine Island Glacier speed-up between 1996 and 2016 J. De Rydt et al. 10.5194/tc-15-113-2021
- ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model W. Lipscomb et al. 10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sea-Level Rise: From Global Perspectives to Local Services G. Durand et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.709595
- Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change S. Bevan et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.57
- Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise J. Sutter et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- Where should hydrology go? An early-career perspective on the next IAHS Scientific Decade: 2023–2032 T. van Hateren et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2170754
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales T. Lenton et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
- Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century K. Naughten et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- A thicker Antarctic ice stream during the mid-Pliocene warm period M. Mas e Braga et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00983-3
- A multi-realm perspective on applying potential tipping points to environmental decision-making M. Harper et al. 10.1139/er-2023-0042
- Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation M. Rietkerk et al. 10.1126/science.abj0359
- Der anthropogene Klimawandel S. Kühl & M. Kühl 10.21706/aep-17-1-5
- Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica G. Gudmundsson et al. 10.1029/2023GL102880
- Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation M. Weber et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27053-6
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023
- A stylized model of stochastic ecosystems with alternative stable states M. Stecher & S. Baumgärtner 10.1111/nrm.12345
- The Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model v1.0 (StISSM v1.0) V. Verjans et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022
- Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene G. Balco et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1787-2023
- Stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the pre-industrial Holocene R. Jones et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00309-5
- Drivers and Reversibility of Abrupt Ocean State Transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica J. Caillet et al. 10.1029/2022JC018929
- Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023
- AMOC Stabilization Under the Interaction With Tipping Polar Ice Sheets S. Sinet et al. 10.1029/2022GL100305
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Effects of calving and submarine melting on steady states and stability of buttressed marine ice sheets M. Haseloff & O. Sergienko 10.1017/jog.2022.29
- Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup H. Åkesson et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29529-5
- Potential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment P. Keys et al. 10.1073/pnas.2210036119
- Foehn winds at Pine Island Glacier and their role in ice changes D. Francis et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3041-2023
- Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01887-y
- Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems S. George et al. 10.1088/1402-4896/acde20
- Legitimacy and justifiability of non-state geoengineering A. Lockley et al. 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103210
- Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world R. Bastiaansen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8
- Thresholds and tipping points are tempting but not necessarily suitable concepts to address anthropogenic biodiversity change—an intervention H. Hillebrand et al. 10.1007/s12526-023-01342-3
- Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density T. Smith & N. Boers 10.1038/s41559-023-02194-7
- The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023
- Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise: Findings From a Structured Expert Judgement Approach J. Bamber et al. 10.1029/2022EF002772
- Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost T. Ehlers et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104197
- Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies B. Davison et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-36990-3
- Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China Z. Chang et al. 10.5194/hess-28-3897-2024
- The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system F. McCormack et al. 10.1525/elementa.2024.00036
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 06 Nov 2024
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other...
