Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
30 Jun 2021
Brief communication |
| 30 Jun 2021
| 30 Jun 2021
Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering
Xavier Fettweis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Stefan Hofer
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS,
Toulouse, France
Charles Amory
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Institut des Géosciences de
l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Alison Delhasse
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Sébastien Doutreloup
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Christoph Kittel
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Charlotte Lang
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Joris Van Bever
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Earth System Science, Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Florent Veillon
SPHERES research units, Geography Department, University of Liège,
Liège, Belgium
Peter Irvine
Earth Sciences, University College London, London, UK
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We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
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We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Xavier Fettweis, Oluwanisola Ibikunle, Carl Leuschen, John Paden, Daniel Gomez-Garcia, and Emily Arnold
The Cryosphere, 17, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, 2023
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Alaskan glaciers' loss of ice mass contributes significantly to ocean surface rise. It is important to know how deeply and how much snow accumulates on these glaciers to comprehend and analyze the glacial mass loss process. We reported the observed seasonal snow depth distribution from our radar data taken in Alaska in 2018 and 2021, developed a method to estimate the annual snow accumulation rate at Mt. Wrangell caldera, and identified transition zones from wet-snow zones to ablation zones.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Sébastien Doutreloup, Xavier Fettweis, Ramin Rahif, Essam Elnagar, Mohsen S. Pourkiaei, Deepak Amaripadath, and Shady Attia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3039–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, 2022
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This data set provides historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) weather data for 12 cities in Belgium. This data set is intended for architects or building or energy designers. In particular, it makes available to all users hourly open-access weather data according to certain standards to recreate a Typical and an Extreme Meteorological Year. In addition, it provides hourly data on heatwaves from 1980 to 2100. Weather data were produced from the outputs of the MAR model simulations.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Louis Le Toumelin, Charles Amory, Vincent Favier, Christoph Kittel, Stefan Hofer, Xavier Fettweis, Hubert Gallée, and Vinay Kayetha
The Cryosphere, 15, 3595–3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, 2021
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Snow is frequently eroded from the surface by the wind in Adelie Land (Antarctica) and suspended in the lower atmosphere. By performing model simulations, we show firstly that suspended snow layers interact with incoming radiation similarly to a near-surface cloud. Secondly, suspended snow modifies the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure and energy exchanges with the surface. Our results suggest snow transport by the wind should be taken into account in future model studies over the region.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
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We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Louis Le Toumelin, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Vincent Favier, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3487–3510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, 2021
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This paper presents recent developments in the drifting-snow scheme of the regional climate model MAR and its application to simulate drifting snow and the surface mass balance of Adélie Land in East Antarctica. The model is extensively described and evaluated against a multi-year drifting-snow dataset and surface mass balance estimates available in the area. The model sensitivity to input parameters and improvements over a previously published version are also assessed.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Stefan Hofer, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Charlotte Lang, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021
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The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the ice sheet to the sea level rise. We investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings using physical and statistical downscaling of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Our results highlight a contrasting effect between the grounded ice sheet (where the SMB is projected to increase) and ice shelves (where the future SMB depends on the emission scenario).
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Brice Noël, Xavier Fettweis, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, William Colgan, Ken Kondo, Kirsty Langley, Shin Sugiyama, Dirk van As, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2811–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, 2020
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This work partitions regional climate model (RCM) runoff from the MAR and RACMO RCMs to hydrologic outlets at the ice margin and coast. Temporal resolution is daily from 1959 through 2019. Spatial grid is ~ 100 m, resolving individual streams. In addition to discharge at outlets, we also provide the streams, outlets, and basin geospatial data, as well as a script to query and access the geospatial or time series discharge data from the data files.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Kang Yang, Aleah Sommers, Lauren C. Andrews, Laurence C. Smith, Xin Lu, Xavier Fettweis, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 14, 3349–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, 2020
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This study compares hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models. Results show that these models are superior to simply using regional climate model runoff without routing, but different routing models, different-spatial-resolution DEMs, and parameterized seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks induce significant variability in diurnal moulin discharges and corresponding subglacial effective pressures.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3098, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Audrey Goutard, Marion Réveillet, Fanny Brun, Delphine Six, Kevin Fourteau, Charles Amory, Xavier Fettweis, Mathieu Fructus, Arbindra Khadka, and Matthieu Lafaysse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2947, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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A new scheme has been developed in the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus model, to consider the impact of liquid water dynamics on bare ice, including albedo feedback and refreezing. When applied to the Mera Glacier in Nepal, the model reveals strong seasonal effects on the energy and mass balance, with increased melting in dry seasons and significant refreezing during the monsoon. This development improves mass balance modeling under increasing rainfall and bare ice exposure due to climate warming.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
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Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Étienne Vignon, Nicolas Chiabrando, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Valentin Wiener, Justine Charrel, Thomas Dubos, and Christophe Genthon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2871, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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The erosion of surface snow by the wind is an important process for the Antarctic surface mass balance. This study presents the first development of a parameterisation of blowing snow for a global climate model. Simulations avec evaluated using measurements in Antarctica. Results show an overall decrease of the snow accumulation in the escarpment region of the ice sheet due to snow erosion and an increase at the coast due to blowing snow deposition and increase in precipitation.
Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Jessica Gurevitch, Peter Irvine, and Claudia Wieners
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 939–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, 2025
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This review assesses the interaction of solar radiation modification (SRM), a technology to reduce the impacts of climate change by reflecting sunlight and earth system tipping elements. We find that SRM at least partially reduces the risk of hitting most (9 out of 15) of the tipping points we studied relative to the same emission pathway and did not overall worsen the risk for any. Uncertainties for all tipping elements studied were high, so we also lay out suggestions for future research.
Chloë Marie Paice, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Huybrechts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2465, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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To study the interactions between the Greenland ice sheet and the atmosphere, we coupled an ice sheet model to a regional climate model and performed simulations of differing coupling complexity over 1000 years. They reveal that at first melt at the ice sheet margin is reduced by changing wind patterns. But over time, as the ice sheet surface lowers, precipitation patterns and cloudiness also change and amplify ice mass loss over the entire ice sheet.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 667–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, 2025
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Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could be used alongside mitigation to reduce global warming. Previous studies suggest that more atmospheric CO2 is taken up when SAI is deployed. Here, we look at the entire SAI deployment from start to after termination. We show how the initial CO2 uptake benefit, and hence lower mitigation burden, is reduced in later stages of SAI, where the reduction in natural CO2 uptake turns into an additional mitigation burden.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
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A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Kristiina Verro, Cecilia Äijälä, Roberta Pirazzini, Ruzica Dadic, Damien Maure, Willem Jan van de Berg, Giacomo Traversa, Christiaan T. van Dalum, Petteri Uotila, Xavier Fettweis, Biagio Di Mauro, and Milla Johansson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-386, 2025
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A realistic representation of Antarctic sea ice is crucial for accurate climate and ocean model predictions. We assessed how different models capture the sunlight reflectivity, snow cover, and ice thickness. Most performed well under mild weather conditions, but overestimated snow/ice reflectivity during cold, with patchy/thin snow conditions. High-resolution satellite imagery revealed spatial albedo variability that models failed to replicate.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Cécile Agosta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1419, 2025
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We analyse 4 projections of winter surface winds in Antarctica. On the continent, projected changes in wind speed by 2100 reveal opposing trends depending on the area and model. Nevertheless, models agree on a strengthening of surface winds in Adélie Land for example and a weakening in some coastal areas. Lastly, we attribute strengthening of near-surface winds to changes in the large-sale atmospheric circulation and weakening of near-surface to changes in the structure of the lower atmosphere.
Jean-François Grailet, Robin J. Hogan, Nicolas Ghilain, David Bolsée, Xavier Fettweis, and Marilaure Grégoire
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025
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The MAR (Modèle Régional Atmosphérique) is a regional climate model used for weather forecasting and studying the climate over various regions. This paper presents an update of MAR thanks to which it can precisely decompose solar radiation, in particular in the UV (ultraviolet) and photosynthesis ranges, both being critical to human health and ecosystems. As a first application of this new capability, this paper presents a method for predicting UV indices with MAR.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, and Johanna Beckmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709, 2025
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This study explores how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) responds to different levels of stabilized global warming, and if the climate cools back. Our findings show that global temperature increases beyond +2.3 °C mark a critical threshold. We also highlight the importance of limiting warming to avoid irreversible ice loss, as well as the potential for recovery after temporarily exceeding warming thresholds if action is taken quickly to lower global temperatures.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
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This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations (CO2 concentration- and emission-driven experiments). We successfully identified problems with regard to the global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues with regard to land use change CO2 emissions that should be solved in the latest generation of models.
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
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Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, 2025
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Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
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We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Zhengwen Yan, Jiangjun Ran, Pavel Ditmar, C. K. Shum, Roland Klees, Patrick Smith, and Xavier Fettweis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-512, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has greatly improved our understanding of changes in Earth's gravity field over time. A novel mass concentration (mascon) dataset, GCL-Mascon2024, was determined by leveraging the short-arc approach, advanced spatial constraints, frequency-dependent noise processing strategy, and parameterization integrating natural boundaries, which aims to enhance accuracy for monitoring mass transportation on Earth.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
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This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
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This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Weiran Li, Stef Lhermitte, Bert Wouters, Cornelis Slobbe, Max Brils, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3251, 2024
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Due to the melt events in recent decades, the snow condition over Greenland has been changed. To observe this, we use a parameter (leading edge width; LeW) derived from satellite altimetry, and analyse its spatial and temporal variations. By comparing the LeW variations with modelled firn parameters, we concluded that the 2012 melt event has a long-lasting impact on the volume scattering of Greenland firn. This impact cannot fully recover due to the recent and more frequent melt events.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
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The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
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We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, 2024
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firn, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcings datasets. Our findings suggest that under low emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, under a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, 2024
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Charlotte Lang, Niall Gandy, Jonathan Gregory, Tamsin L. Edwards, Oliver Pollard, and Robin S. Smith
Clim. Past, 20, 1489–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024, 2024
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Ensemble simulations of the climate and ice sheets of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are performed with a new coupled climate–ice sheet model. Results show a strong sensitivity of the North American ice sheet to the albedo scheme, while the Greenland ice sheet appeared more sensitive to basal sliding schemes. Our result implies a potential connection between the North American ice sheet at the LGM and the future Greenland ice sheet through the albedo scheme.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere, 18, 2239–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, 2024
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Coastal surface winds in Antarctica are amongst the strongest winds on Earth. They are either driven by the cooling of the surface air mass by the ice sheet (katabatic) or by large-scale pressure systems. Here we compute the relative contribution of these drivers. We find that seasonal variations in the wind speed come from the katabatic acceleration, but, at a 3-hourly timescale, none of the large-scale or katabatic accelerations can be considered as the main driver.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
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This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 307–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, 2024
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Most solar radiation modification (SRM) simulations assume no physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. We analyze the impact of SRM on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) and find that almost all regions have reduced PV and CSP potential compared to a mitigated or unmitigated scenario, especially in the middle and high latitudes. This suggests that SRM could pose challenges for meeting energy demands with solar renewable resources.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
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The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
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Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Laura J. Dietrich, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Sonja Wahl, Anne-Katrine Faber, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 289–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-289-2024, 2024
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The contribution of the humidity flux to the surface mass balance in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is uncertain. Here, we evaluate the regional climate model MAR using a multi-annual dataset of eddy covariance measurements and bulk estimates of the humidity flux. The humidity flux largely contributes to the summer surface mass balance (SMB) in the accumulation zone, indicating its potential importance for the annual SMB in a warming climate.
Aymeric P. M. Servettaz, Cécile Agosta, Christoph Kittel, and Anaïs J. Orsi
The Cryosphere, 17, 5373–5389, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, 2023
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It has been previously observed in polar regions that the atmospheric temperature is warmer during precipitation events. Here, we use a regional atmospheric model to quantify the temperature changes associated with snowfall events across Antarctica. We show that more intense snowfall is statistically associated with a warmer temperature anomaly compared to the seasonal average, with the largest anomalies seen in winter. This bias may affect water isotopes in ice cores deposited during snowfall.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
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We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, and Julienne Stroeve
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1165–1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.
Damien Maure, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Alison Delhasse, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4645–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Studies have already shown that Greenland and the Canadian Arctic are experiencing a record increase in melting rates, while Svalbard has been relatively less impacted. Looking at those regions but also extending the study to Iceland and the Russian Arctic archipelagoes, we see a heterogeneity in the melting-rate response to the Arctic warming, with the Russian archipelagoes experiencing lower melting rates than other regions.
Prateek Gantayat, Alison F. Banwell, Amber A. Leeson, James M. Lea, Dorthe Petersen, Noel Gourmelen, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5803–5823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5803-2023, 2023
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We developed a new supraglacial hydrology model for the Greenland Ice Sheet. This model simulates surface meltwater routing, meltwater drainage, supraglacial lake (SGL) overflow, and formation of lake ice. The model was able to reproduce 80 % of observed lake locations and provides a good match between the observed and modelled temporal evolution of SGLs.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
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We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Fanny Brun, Owen King, Marion Réveillet, Charles Amory, Anton Planchot, Etienne Berthier, Amaury Dehecq, Tobias Bolch, Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, Marie Dumont, Christoph Mayer, Silvan Leinss, Romain Hugonnet, and Patrick Wagnon
The Cryosphere, 17, 3251–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3251-2023, 2023
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The South Col Glacier is a small body of ice and snow located on the southern ridge of Mt. Everest. A recent study proposed that South Col Glacier is rapidly losing mass. In this study, we examined the glacier thickness change for the period 1984–2017 and found no thickness change. To reconcile these results, we investigate wind erosion and surface energy and mass balance and find that melt is unlikely a dominant process, contrary to previous findings.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
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Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sarah Berthet, Julien Jouanno, Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, and William Llovel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, 2023
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Phytoplankton absorbs the solar radiation entering the ocean surface and contributes to keeping the associated energy in surface waters. This natural effect is either not represented in the ocean component of climate models or its representation is simplified. An incomplete representation of this biophysical interaction affects the way climate models simulate ocean warming, which leads to uncertainties in projections of oceanic emissions of an important greenhouse gas (nitrous oxide).
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Benjamin E. Smith, Brooke Medley, Xavier Fettweis, Tyler Sutterley, Patrick Alexander, David Porter, and Marco Tedesco
The Cryosphere, 17, 789–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-789-2023, 2023
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We use repeated satellite measurements of the height of the Greenland ice sheet to learn about how three computational models of snowfall, melt, and snow compaction represent actual changes in the ice sheet. We find that the models do a good job of estimating how the parts of the ice sheet near the coast have changed but that two of the models have trouble representing surface melt for the highest part of the ice sheet. This work provides suggestions for how to better model snowmelt.
Yangxin Chen, Duoying Ji, Qian Zhang, John C. Moore, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 55–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023, 2023
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Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases by reflecting solar radiation. This work shows that solar geoengineering can slow down the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot preserve the permafrost ecosystem as that under a climate of the same warming level without solar geoengineering.
Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Xavier Fettweis, Oluwanisola Ibikunle, Carl Leuschen, John Paden, Daniel Gomez-Garcia, and Emily Arnold
The Cryosphere, 17, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-175-2023, 2023
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Alaskan glaciers' loss of ice mass contributes significantly to ocean surface rise. It is important to know how deeply and how much snow accumulates on these glaciers to comprehend and analyze the glacial mass loss process. We reported the observed seasonal snow depth distribution from our radar data taken in Alaska in 2018 and 2021, developed a method to estimate the annual snow accumulation rate at Mt. Wrangell caldera, and identified transition zones from wet-snow zones to ablation zones.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
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Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
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The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Sébastien Doutreloup, Xavier Fettweis, Ramin Rahif, Essam Elnagar, Mohsen S. Pourkiaei, Deepak Amaripadath, and Shady Attia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3039–3051, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3039-2022, 2022
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This data set provides historical (1980–2014) and future (2015–2100) weather data for 12 cities in Belgium. This data set is intended for architects or building or energy designers. In particular, it makes available to all users hourly open-access weather data according to certain standards to recreate a Typical and an Extreme Meteorological Year. In addition, it provides hourly data on heatwaves from 1980 to 2100. Weather data were produced from the outputs of the MAR model simulations.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
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We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
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This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
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Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Nicolaj Hansen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Andrew Orr, Niels Souverijns, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Ruth Mottram
The Cryosphere, 16, 711–718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022, 2022
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We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Florent Veillon, Marie Dumont, Charles Amory, and Mathieu Fructus
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7329–7343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7329-2021, 2021
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In climate models, the snow albedo scheme generally calculates only a narrowband or broadband albedo. Therefore, we have developed the VALHALLA method to optimize snow spectral albedo calculations through the determination of spectrally fixed radiative variables. The development of VALHALLA v1.0 with the use of the snow albedo model TARTES and the spectral irradiance model SBDART indicates a considerable reduction in calculation time while maintaining an adequate accuracy of albedo values.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
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We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Louis Le Toumelin, Charles Amory, Vincent Favier, Christoph Kittel, Stefan Hofer, Xavier Fettweis, Hubert Gallée, and Vinay Kayetha
The Cryosphere, 15, 3595–3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, 2021
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Snow is frequently eroded from the surface by the wind in Adelie Land (Antarctica) and suspended in the lower atmosphere. By performing model simulations, we show firstly that suspended snow layers interact with incoming radiation similarly to a near-surface cloud. Secondly, suspended snow modifies the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure and energy exchanges with the surface. Our results suggest snow transport by the wind should be taken into account in future model studies over the region.
Thomas James Barnes, Amber Alexandra Leeson, Malcolm McMillan, Vincent Verjans, Jeremy Carter, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-214, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We find that the area covered by lakes on George VI ice shelf in 2020 is similar to that seen in other years such as 1989. However, the climate conditions are much more in favour of lakes forming. We find that it is likely that snowfall, and the build up of a surface snow layer limits the development of lakes on the surface of George VI ice shelf in 2020. We also find that in future, snowfall is predicted to decrease, and therefore this limiting effect may be reduced in future.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
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A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
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In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
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We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Louis Le Toumelin, Cécile Agosta, Alison Delhasse, Vincent Favier, and Xavier Fettweis
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3487–3510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3487-2021, 2021
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This paper presents recent developments in the drifting-snow scheme of the regional climate model MAR and its application to simulate drifting snow and the surface mass balance of Adélie Land in East Antarctica. The model is extensively described and evaluated against a multi-year drifting-snow dataset and surface mass balance estimates available in the area. The model sensitivity to input parameters and improvements over a previously published version are also assessed.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
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This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Stefan Hofer, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Charlotte Lang, Thierry Fichefet, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021, 2021
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The future surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the ice sheet to the sea level rise. We investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings using physical and statistical downscaling of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Our results highlight a contrasting effect between the grounded ice sheet (where the SMB is projected to increase) and ice shelves (where the future SMB depends on the emission scenario).
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Marion Donat-Magnin, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, and Mondher Chekki
The Cryosphere, 15, 571–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021, 2021
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We simulate the West Antarctic climate in 2100 under increasing greenhouse gases. Future accumulation over the ice sheet increases, which reduces sea level changing rate. Surface ice-shelf melt rates increase until 2100. Some ice shelves experience a lot of liquid water at their surface, which indicates potential ice-shelf collapse. In contrast, no liquid water is found over other ice shelves due to huge amounts of snowfall that bury liquid water, favouring refreezing and ice-shelf stability.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
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The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
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We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Brice Noël, Xavier Fettweis, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, William Colgan, Ken Kondo, Kirsty Langley, Shin Sugiyama, Dirk van As, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2811–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, 2020
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This work partitions regional climate model (RCM) runoff from the MAR and RACMO RCMs to hydrologic outlets at the ice margin and coast. Temporal resolution is daily from 1959 through 2019. Spatial grid is ~ 100 m, resolving individual streams. In addition to discharge at outlets, we also provide the streams, outlets, and basin geospatial data, as well as a script to query and access the geospatial or time series discharge data from the data files.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Kang Yang, Aleah Sommers, Lauren C. Andrews, Laurence C. Smith, Xin Lu, Xavier Fettweis, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 14, 3349–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, 2020
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This study compares hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models. Results show that these models are superior to simply using regional climate model runoff without routing, but different routing models, different-spatial-resolution DEMs, and parameterized seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks induce significant variability in diurnal moulin discharges and corresponding subglacial effective pressures.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
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Short summary
Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss...
