Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
Research article
 | 
12 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 12 Feb 2024

Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model

Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn

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Cited articles

Abram, N. J., Mulvaney, R., Wolff, E., Triest, J., Kipfstuhl, S., Trusel, L. D., Vimeux, F., Fleet, L., and Arrowsmith, C.: Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century, Nat. Geosci., 6, 404–411, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1787, 2013. a
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M.: Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0616-z, 2020. a
Asay-Davis, X. S., Jourdain, N. C., and Nakayama, Y.: Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 3, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0071-0, 2017. a
Aschwanden, A., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and Khroulev, C.: Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states, The Cryosphere, 7, 1083–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, 2013. a
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021. a, b
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Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
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