Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
Research article
 | 
12 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 12 Feb 2024

Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model

Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1532', Nicholas Golledge, 18 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Violaine Coulon, 20 Oct 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1532', Daniel Martin, 20 Sep 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Violaine Coulon, 20 Oct 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (06 Nov 2023) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Violaine Coulon on behalf of the Authors (07 Nov 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (28 Nov 2023) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Violaine Coulon on behalf of the Authors (11 Dec 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (13 Dec 2023) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Violaine Coulon on behalf of the Authors (19 Dec 2023)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.