Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model

Coulon, Violaine; Klose, Ann Kristin; Kittel, Christoph; Edwards, Tamsin; Turner, Fiona; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Pattyn, Frank

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024

Articles | Volume 18, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Improving the contribution of the land cryosphere to sea level...

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 18, issue 2

Research article

|

12 Feb 2024

Research article |

| 12 Feb 2024

Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model

Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024-supplement

Data sets

Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model Violaine Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8398771

Kittel et al. (2021), The Cryosphere : MAR and ESMs data C. Kittel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4459259

Model code and software

Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model Violaine Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8398771

Short summary

We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.