Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 12 Feb 2024
| 12 Feb 2024
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Brussels, Belgium
Ann Kristin Klose
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Christoph Kittel
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Tamsin Edwards
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
Fiona Turner
Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Frank Pattyn
Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Brussels, Belgium
Viewed
Total article views: 8,093 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 27 Jul 2023)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,646 | 2,214 | 233 | 8,093 | 745 | 236 | 325 |
- HTML: 5,646
- PDF: 2,214
- XML: 233
- Total: 8,093
- Supplement: 745
- BibTeX: 236
- EndNote: 325
Total article views: 4,806 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 12 Feb 2024)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,955 | 709 | 142 | 4,806 | 249 | 139 | 185 |
- HTML: 3,955
- PDF: 709
- XML: 142
- Total: 4,806
- Supplement: 249
- BibTeX: 139
- EndNote: 185
Total article views: 3,287 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 27 Jul 2023)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,691 | 1,505 | 91 | 3,287 | 496 | 97 | 140 |
- HTML: 1,691
- PDF: 1,505
- XML: 91
- Total: 3,287
- Supplement: 496
- BibTeX: 97
- EndNote: 140
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 8,093 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 7,753 with geography defined
and 340 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 4,806 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 4,516 with geography defined
and 290 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,287 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,237 with geography defined
and 50 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers E. Kazmierczak et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024
- SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios V. Couplet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025
- Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200 N. Jourdain et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025
- Growth and decay of the Iceland Ice Sheet through the last glacial cycle A. Goffin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-825-2026
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations D. Felikson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02437-4
- Fracture-driven weakening amplifies projected ice loss from West Antarctica J. Blasco et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2601529123
- Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries C. van Calcar et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66435-y
- Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections F. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
- Approximating 3D bedrock deformation in an Antarctic ice-sheet model for projections C. van Calcar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
- Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4
- History and dynamics of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet retreat, contemporary ice-dammed lake evolution, and faulting in the Torneträsk area, northwestern Sweden K. Ploeg & A. Stroeven https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-347-2025
- Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w
- Expansion of Antarctic surface melt through the 21st century Y. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71114-7
- Glacial retreat and climate change: insights from remote sensing technologies M. Jamal et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-025-36578-y
- Uncertain ground: impact of bed topography on Antarctic Ice Sheet projections J. Caillet et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0543
- Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica J. Wille et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7
- Damage intensity increases ice mass loss from Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming R. Winkelmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet V. Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026
- Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier A. Bradley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers E. Kazmierczak et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024
- SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios V. Couplet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025
- Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200 N. Jourdain et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025
- Growth and decay of the Iceland Ice Sheet through the last glacial cycle A. Goffin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-825-2026
- Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability J. Caillet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica A. Klose et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
- Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations D. Felikson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02437-4
- Fracture-driven weakening amplifies projected ice loss from West Antarctica J. Blasco et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2601529123
- Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries C. van Calcar et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66435-y
- Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections F. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
- Approximating 3D bedrock deformation in an Antarctic ice-sheet model for projections C. van Calcar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
- Emergent decadal predictability in Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise F. McCormack et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10614-4
- History and dynamics of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet retreat, contemporary ice-dammed lake evolution, and faulting in the Torneträsk area, northwestern Sweden K. Ploeg & A. Stroeven https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-347-2025
- Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w
- Expansion of Antarctic surface melt through the 21st century Y. Zheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71114-7
- Glacial retreat and climate change: insights from remote sensing technologies M. Jamal et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-025-36578-y
- Uncertain ground: impact of bed topography on Antarctic Ice Sheet projections J. Caillet et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0543
- Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica J. Wille et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00638-7
- Damage intensity increases ice mass loss from Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4373-2025
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming R. Winkelmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet V. Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026
- Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier A. Bradley et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3443-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 26 Jul 2026
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the...
