Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 May 2011
Research article |
| 16 May 2011
The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of surface energy balance and melt in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet
M. R. van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research (IMAU), Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
C. J. P. P. Smeets
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research (IMAU), Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
R. S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research (IMAU), Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Bert Wouters, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2900, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We produce annual maps of Antarctic surface melt volumes from 2012 to 2021 using satellite microwave data. We detect melting days from thresholds on the satellite signal and then use actual melt measurements from weather stations to convert those signals into water‑equivalent volumes. Our maps capture known melt hotspots and show slightly lower totals than climate models. This dataset supports climate and ice‑shelf studies.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-88, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This paper describes the 154 station-years of in situ measurements from the 19 IMAU automatic weather stations that operated on the Antarctic ice sheet between 1995 and 2022. These stations also recorded all four components of net surface radiation and surface height change, which allows for the quantification of the surface energy-and-mass balance at hourly resolution. This data is invaluable for the evaluation of weather and climate models, and for the detection of climatological changes.
Ida Haven, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Laura J. Dietrich, Sonja Wahl, Jason E. Box, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, Alun Hubbard, Stephan T. Kral, Joachim Reuder, and Maurice Van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, 2025
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Three independent Eddy-Covariance measurement systems deployed on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet are compared. Using this dataset, we evaluate the reproducibility and quantify the differences between the systems. The fidelity of two regional climate models in capturing the seasonal variability in the latent and sensible heat flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere is assessed. We identify differences between observations and model simulations, especially during the winter period.
Anneke Louise Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, 2025
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Freshwater enters Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge dominates freshwater input into fjords in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are most significant. Seasonally resolved data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the total freshwater influx, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, 2025
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In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially, but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature and wind speed compare well with in-situ and remote sensing observations.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, 2024
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firn, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcings datasets. Our findings suggest that under low emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, under a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, 2024
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, 2023
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Bert Wouters, Jakob F. Steiner, Emile J. Nieuwstraten, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 2601–2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, 2021
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We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
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Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
J. Melchior van Wessem, Christian R. Steger, Nander Wever, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 695–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, 2021
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This study presents the first modelled estimates of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) in Antarctica. PFAs are subsurface meltwater bodies that do not refreeze in winter due to the isolating effects of the snow they are buried underneath. They were first identified in Greenland, but conditions for their existence are also present in the Antarctic Peninsula. These PFAs can have important effects on meltwater retention, ice shelf stability, and, consequently, sea level rise.
Baojuan Huai, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Carleen H. Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 14, 4181–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, 2020
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This study presents the surface energy balance (SEB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using a SEB model forced with observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs). We correlate ERA5 with AWSs to show a significant positive correlation of GrIS summer surface temperature and melt with the Greenland Blocking Index and weaker and opposite correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation. This analysis may help explain melting patterns in the GrIS with respect to circulation anomalies.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Stef Lhermitte, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3645–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, 2020
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The reflectivity of sunlight, which is also known as albedo, is often inadequately modeled in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new snow and ice albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2. In this study, we evaluate a new RACMO2 version for the Greenland ice sheet by using observations and the previous model version. RACMO2 output compares well with observations, and by including new processes we improve the ability of RACMO2 to make future climate projections.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Michael Kern, Robert Cullen, Bruno Berruti, Jerome Bouffard, Tania Casal, Mark R. Drinkwater, Antonio Gabriele, Arnaud Lecuyot, Michael Ludwig, Rolv Midthassel, Ignacio Navas Traver, Tommaso Parrinello, Gerhard Ressler, Erik Andersson, Cristina Martin-Puig, Ole Andersen, Annett Bartsch, Sinead Farrell, Sara Fleury, Simon Gascoin, Amandine Guillot, Angelika Humbert, Eero Rinne, Andrew Shepherd, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and John Yackel
The Cryosphere, 14, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, 2020
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The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter will provide high-resolution sea ice thickness and land ice elevation measurements and the capability to determine the properties of snow cover on ice to serve operational products and services of direct relevance to the polar regions. This paper describes the mission objectives, identifies the key contributions the CRISTAL mission will make, and presents a concept – as far as it is already defined – for the mission payload.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Brice Noël, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Willem Jan van de Berg, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Bert Wouters, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1425–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, 2020
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We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2; ~111 km) to force a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ~11 km), which is further refined to 1 km spatial resolution. For the first time, an Earth-system-model-based product, assimilating no observations, can reconstruct realistic historical ice sheet surface mass balance as well as the mass loss acceleration that started in the 1990s.
Matthias O. Willen, Martin Horwath, Ludwig Schröder, Andreas Groh, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 349–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-349-2020, 2020
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Quentin Libois, Ghislain Picard, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5157–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, 2019
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Climate models are often limited to relatively simple snow albedo schemes. Therefore, we have developed the SNOWBAL module to couple a climate model with a physically based wavelength dependent snow albedo model. Using SNOWBAL v1.2 to couple the snow albedo model TARTES with the regional climate model RACMO2 indicates a potential performance gain for the Greenland ice sheet.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, C. Max Stevens, Michael MacFerrin, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1819–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, 2019
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Firn models rely on empirical approaches for representing the percolation and refreezing of meltwater through the firn column. We develop liquid water schemes of different levels of complexity for firn models and compare their performances with respect to observations of density profiles from Greenland. Our results demonstrate that physically advanced water schemes do not lead to better agreement with density observations. Uncertainties in other processes contribute more to model discrepancy.
Tyler C. Sutterley, Thorsten Markus, Thomas A. Neumann, Michiel van den Broeke, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 1801–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, 2019
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Most of the Antarctic ice sheet is fringed by ice shelves, floating extensions of ice that help to modulate the flow of the glaciers that float into them. We use airborne laser altimetry data to measure changes in ice thickness of ice shelves around West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. Each of our target ice shelves is susceptible to short-term changes in ice thickness. The method developed here provides a framework for processing NASA ICESat-2 data over ice shelves.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
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A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Constantijn L. Jakobs, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Gert König-Langlo, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1473–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1473-2019, 2019
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We use 24 years of observations at Neumayer Station, East Antarctica, to calculate the surface energy balance and the associated surface melt, which we find to be mainly driven by the absorption of solar radiation. Meltwater can refreeze in the subsurface snow layers, thereby decreasing the surface albedo and hence allowing for more absorption of solar radiation. By implementing an albedo parameterisation, we show that this feedback accounts for a threefold increase in surface melt at Neumayer.
Ludwig Schröder, Martin Horwath, Reinhard Dietrich, Veit Helm, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 427–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, 2019
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We developed an approach to combine measurements of seven satellite altimetry missions over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our resulting monthly grids of elevation changes between 1978 and 2017 provide unprecedented details of the long-term and interannual variation. Derived mass changes agree well with contemporaneous data of surface mass balance and satellite gravimetry and show which regions were responsible for the significant accelerations of mass loss in recent years.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
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Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Michalea D. King, Ian M. Howat, Seongsu Jeong, Myoung J. Noh, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3813–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, 2018
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We derive the first continuous record of total ice discharged from all large Greenland outlet glaciers over the 2000–2016 period, resolving a distinct pattern of seasonal variability. We compare these results to glacier retreat and meltwater runoff and find that while runoff has a limited impact on ice discharge in summer, long-term changes in discharge are highly correlated to retreat. These results help to better understand Greenland outlet glacier sensitivity over a range of timescales.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Michael P. Schodlok, Eric Y. Larour, Carmen Boening, Daniel Limonadi, Michael M. Watkins, Mathieu Morlighem, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3511–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, 2018
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Using NASA supercomputers and a novel framework, in which Sandia National Laboratories' statistical software is embedded in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's ice sheet model, we run a range of 100-year warming scenarios for Antarctica. We find that 1.2 m of sea level contribution is achievable, but not likely. Also, we find that bedrock topography beneath the ice drives potential for regional sea level contribution, highlighting the need for accurate bedrock mapping of the ice sheet interior.
Jiangjun Ran, Miren Vizcaino, Pavel Ditmar, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Twila Moon, Christian R. Steger, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, Catharina H. Reijmer, Roland Klees, Min Zhong, Lin Liu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 2981–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, 2018
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To accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry, surface mass balance, and ice discharge to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal scales. This study, for the first time, suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. We highlight its importance for understanding ice sheet mass variability
Rajashree Tri Datta, Marco Tedesco, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 2901–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, 2018
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Surface melting on the East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP) has been linked to ice shelf collapse, including the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) ice shelves. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a valuable tool to understand how wind patterns and general warming can impact the stability of ice shelves through surface melt. Here, we evaluate one such RCM (Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale) over the East AP, including the remaining Larsen C ice shelf, by comparing it to satellite and ground data.
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1643–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, 2018
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Firn is the transitional product between fresh snow and glacier ice, and a 10-100 m thick layer covers the Greenland ice sheet. It has the capacity to store meltwater and thereby mitigate runoff to the ocean. Using a model and improved atmospheric forcing, we simulate firn density and temperature that agrees well with observations from firn cores. Especially in the regions with substantial melt, and therefore the most sensitive to a warming climate, the results improved significantly.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Helmut Rott, Wael Abdel Jaber, Jan Wuite, Stefan Scheiblauer, Dana Floricioiu, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Thomas Nagler, Nuno Miranda, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1273–1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1273-2018, 2018
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We analysed volume change, mass balance and ice flow of glaciers draining into the Larsen A and Larsen B embayments on the Antarctic Peninsula for 2011 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016. The mass balance is based on elevation change measured by the radar satellite mission TanDEM-X and on the mass budget method. The glaciers show continuing losses in ice mass, which is a response to ice shelf break-up. After 2013 the downwasting of glaciers slowed down, coinciding with years of persistent sea ice cover.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Alex S. Gardner, Geir Moholdt, Ted Scambos, Mark Fahnstock, Stefan Ligtenberg, Michiel van den Broeke, and Johan Nilsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018
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We map present-day Antarctic surface velocities from Landsat imagery and compare to earlier estimates from radar. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 89 % of the observed increase in ice discharge. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic have been remarkably stable. Our work suggests that patterns of mass loss are part of a longer-term phase of enhanced flow.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
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Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Christian R. Steger, Carleen H. Reijmer, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 2507–2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2507-2017, 2017
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Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, is currently dominated by surface melt and run-off. The relation between these two variables is rather uncertain due to the firn layer’s potential to buffer melt in solid (refreezing) or liquid (firn aquifer) form. To address this uncertainty, we analyse output of a numerical firn model run over 1960–2014. Results show a spatially variable response of the ice sheet to increasing melt and an upward migration of aquifers.
Peter Kuipers Munneke, Daniel McGrath, Brooke Medley, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, Bernd Kulessa, Daniela Jansen, Adam Booth, Paul Smeets, Bryn Hubbard, David Ashmore, Michiel Van den Broeke, Heidi Sevestre, Konrad Steffen, Andrew Shepherd, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 11, 2411–2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, 2017
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How much snow falls on the Larsen C ice shelf? This is a relevant question, because this ice shelf might collapse sometime this century. To know if and when this could happen, we found out how much snow falls on its surface. This was difficult, because there are only very few measurements. Here, we used data from automatic weather stations, sled-pulled radars, and a climate model to find that melting the annual snowfall produces about 20 cm of water in the NE and over 70 cm in the SW.
Riccardo E. M. Riva, Thomas Frederikse, Matt A. King, Ben Marzeion, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 1327–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, 2017
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The reduction of ice masses stored on land has made an important contribution to sea-level rise over the last century, as well as changed the Earth's shape. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have varied strongly throughout the last century, which affects the interpretation and extrapolation of recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.
Harry Zekollari, Philippe Huybrechts, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 805–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, 2017
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In this study the dynamics of the world’s northernmost ice cap are investigated with a 3-D ice flow model. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions
an ice cap similar to the observed one is obtained, with comparable geometry and surface velocities. The southern part of the ice cap is very unstable,
and under early-21st-century climatic conditions this part of the ice cap fully disappears. In a projected warmer and wetter climate the ice cap will at
first steepen, before eventually disappearing.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
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We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Horst Machguth, Stef Lhermitte, Ian Howat, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 2361–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016
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We present a 1 km resolution data set (1958–2015) of daily Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), statistically downscaled from the data of RACMO2.3 at 11 km using elevation dependence, precipitation and bare ice albedo corrections. The data set resolves Greenland narrow ablation zones and local outlet glaciers, and shows more realistic SMB patterns, owing to enhanced runoff at the ice sheet margins. An evaluation of the product against SMB measurements shows improved agreement.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, David N. Wiese, Eric Y. Larour, Michael M. Watkins, Jason E. Box, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 1965–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, 2016
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We investigate Greenland Ice Sheet mass change from 2003–2012 by comparing observations from GRACE with state-of-the-art atmospheric and ice sheet model simulations. We find that the largest discrepancies (in the northwest and southeast) are likely controlled by errors in modeled surface climate as well as ice–ocean interaction and hydrological processes (not included in the models). Models should consider such processes at monthly to seasonal resolutions in order to improve future projections.
Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Ian M. Howat, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016
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We present recent (1958–2015) mass balance time series for the Greenland ice sheet. We show that recent mass loss is caused by a combination of increased surface meltwater runoff and solid ice discharge. Most meltwater above 2000 m a.s.l. refreezes in the cold firn and does not leave the ice sheet, but this goes at the expense of firn heating and densifying. In spite of a temporary rebound in 2013, it appears that the ice sheet remains in a state of persistent mass loss.
Zheng Xu, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Wouter van der Wal, Michiel van den Broeke, and Ellyn M. Enderlin
The Cryosphere, 10, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare the regional mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet between the solutions based on GRACE data and input/output method. Differences are found in some regions and indicate errors in those solutions. Therefore we improve our GRACE and IOM solutions by applying a simulation. We show the improved regional mass changes approximations are more consistent in regions. The remaining difference in the northwester Greenland is due to the underestimated uncertainty in IOM solution.
Wenshan Wang, Charles S. Zender, Dirk van As, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-727-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-727-2016, 2016
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We identify and correct station-tilt-induced biases in insolation observed by automatic weather stations on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Without tilt correction, only 40 % of clear days have the correct solar noon time (±0.5 h). The largest hourly bias exceeds 20 %. We estimate the tilt angles based on solar geometric relationship between insolation observed on horizontal surfaces and that on tilted surfaces, and produce shortwave radiation and albedo that agree better with independent data sets.
Ioana S. Muresan, Shfaqat A. Khan, Andy Aschwanden, Constantine Khroulev, Tonie Van Dam, Jonathan Bamber, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Bert Wouters, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Kurt H. Kjær
The Cryosphere, 10, 597–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-597-2016, 2016
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We use a regional 3-D outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) during 1990–2014. The model simulates two major accelerations in 1998 and 2003 that are consistent with observations. We find that most of the JI retreat during the simulated period is driven by the ocean parametrization used, and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largely governed by bed geometry. The study shows progress in modelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
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This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
C. Charalampidis, D. van As, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, W. T. Colgan, S. H. Doyle, A. L. Hubbard, M. MacFerrin, H. Machguth, and C. J. P. P. Smeets
The Cryosphere, 9, 2163–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2163-2015, 2015
P. Kuipers Munneke, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, B. P. Y. Noël, I. M. Howat, J. E. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, J. R. McConnell, K. Steffen, J. T. Harper, S. B. Das, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, 2015
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The snow layer on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing: it is thickening in the high and cold interior due to increased snowfall, while it is thinning around the margins. The marginal thinning is caused by compaction, and by more melt.
This knowledge is important: there are satellites that measure volume change of the ice sheet. It can be caused by increased ice discharge, or by compaction of the snow layer. Here, we quantify the latter, so that we can translate volume to mass change.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
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We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
S. de la Peña, I. M. Howat, P. W. Nienow, M. R. van den Broeke, E. Mosley-Thompson, S. F. Price, D. Mair, B. Noël, and A. J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 9, 1203–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, 2015
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This paper presents an assessment of changes in the near-surface structure of the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by an increase of melt at higher elevations in the last decade, especially during the unusually warm years of 2010 and 2012. The increase in melt and firn densification complicate the interpretation of changes in the ice volume, and the observed increase in firn ice content may reduce the important meltwater buffering capacity of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
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This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
B. Noël, X. Fettweis, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 8, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, 2014
S. R. M. Ligtenberg, P. Kuipers Munneke, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 1711–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, 2014
S. A. Khan, K. K. Kjeldsen, K. H. Kjær, S. Bevan, A. Luckman, A. Aschwanden, A. A. Bjørk, N. J. Korsgaard, J. E. Box, M. van den Broeke, T. M. van Dam, and A. Fitzner
The Cryosphere, 8, 1497–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1497-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1497-2014, 2014
H. Fréville, E. Brun, G. Picard, N. Tatarinova, L. Arnaud, C. Lanconelli, C. Reijmer, and M. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 1361–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1361-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
J. T. M. Lenaerts, C. J. P. P. Smeets, K. Nishimura, M. Eijkelboom, W. Boot, M. R. van den Broeke, and W. J. van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 8, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, 2014
B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban
The Cryosphere, 8, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, 2014
J. M. van Wessem, C. H. Reijmer, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 8, 125–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, 2014
I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1499–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, 2013
A. K. Rennermalm, L. C. Smith, V. W. Chu, J. E. Box, R. R. Forster, M. R. Van den Broeke, D. Van As, and S. E. Moustafa
The Cryosphere, 7, 1433–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1433-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
I. Joughin, S. B. Das, G. E. Flowers, M. D. Behn, R. B. Alley, M. A. King, B. E. Smith, J. L. Bamber, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. H. van Angelen
The Cryosphere, 7, 1185–1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, 2013
W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, E. van Meijgaard, and F. Kaspar
Clim. Past, 9, 1589–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, 2013
C. L. Vernon, J. L. Bamber, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 599–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, B. Franco, M. Tedesco, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013
I. M. Howat, S. de la Peña, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 7, 201–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Bert Wouters, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2900, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We produce annual maps of Antarctic surface melt volumes from 2012 to 2021 using satellite microwave data. We detect melting days from thresholds on the satellite signal and then use actual melt measurements from weather stations to convert those signals into water‑equivalent volumes. Our maps capture known melt hotspots and show slightly lower totals than climate models. This dataset supports climate and ice‑shelf studies.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, Alicia Bråtner, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3047–3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3047-2025, 2025
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and be useful for GIS ice sheet modeling.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 21, 1061–1077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1061-2025, 2025
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Glacial cycle duration changed from 41 000 to 100 000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation and simple ice–climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate for warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge A. Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3635–3659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3635-2025, 2025
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution that can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Daniel F. J. Gunning, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Emilie Capron, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2479–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2479-2025, 2025
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This work documents the first results from ZEMBA: an energy balance model of the climate system. The model is a computationally efficient tool designed to study the response of climate to changes in the Earth's orbit. We demonstrate that ZEMBA reproduces many features of the Earth's climate for both the pre-industrial period and the Earth's most recent cold extreme – the Last Glacial Maximum. We intend to develop ZEMBA further and investigate the glacial cycles of the last 2.5 million years.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-88, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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This paper describes the 154 station-years of in situ measurements from the 19 IMAU automatic weather stations that operated on the Antarctic ice sheet between 1995 and 2022. These stations also recorded all four components of net surface radiation and surface height change, which allows for the quantification of the surface energy-and-mass balance at hourly resolution. This data is invaluable for the evaluation of weather and climate models, and for the detection of climatological changes.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, 2025
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Ice sheet models to simulate future sea level rise require parameterizations, like for the friction at the bedrock. Studies have quantified the effect of using different parameterizations, and some have concluded that projections are sensitive to the choice of the specific parameterization. In this study, we show that you can make an ice sheet model sensitive to the basal friction parameterization, and that for equally defendable modellers choices you can also make the model insensitive to this.
Ida Haven, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Laura J. Dietrich, Sonja Wahl, Jason E. Box, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, Alun Hubbard, Stephan T. Kral, Joachim Reuder, and Maurice Van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-711, 2025
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Three independent Eddy-Covariance measurement systems deployed on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet are compared. Using this dataset, we evaluate the reproducibility and quantify the differences between the systems. The fidelity of two regional climate models in capturing the seasonal variability in the latent and sensible heat flux between the snow surface and the atmosphere is assessed. We identify differences between observations and model simulations, especially during the winter period.
Kim de Wit, Kim M. Cohen, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 545–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-545-2025, 2025
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In the Holocene, deltas and coastal plains developed due to relative sea level rise (RSLR). Past coastal and inland water levels are preserved in geological indicators, like basal peats. We present a dataset of 712 Holocene water level indicators from the Dutch coastal plain, relevant for studying RSLR and regional subsidence, compiled in HOLSEA workbook format. Our new, internally consistent, expanded documentation encourages multiple data uses and to report RSLR uncertainties transparently.
Tim H. J. Hermans, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Simon Treu, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anaïs Couasnon, Julius J. M. Busecke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-196, 2025
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We studied the performance of different types of neural networks at predicting extreme storm surges. We found that that performance improves when during model training, events with a lower density are given a higher weight. Additionally, we found that the performance of especially convolutional neural networks approaches that of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic model. This is promising for the application of neural networks to climate model simulations.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4058, 2025
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We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss, not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Anneke Louise Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, 2025
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Freshwater enters Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge dominates freshwater input into fjords in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are most significant. Seasonally resolved data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the total freshwater influx, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Maurice van Tiggelen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3728, 2025
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In this study, we present a new surface mass balance (SMB) and near-surface climate product for Antarctica with the regional climate model RACMO2.4p1. We assess the impact of major model updates on the climate of Antarctica. Locally, the SMB has changed substantially, but also agrees well with observations. In addition, we show that the SMB components, surface energy budget, albedo, pressure, temperature and wind speed compare well with in-situ and remote sensing observations.
Caroline Jacoba van Calcar, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Wouter van der Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2982, 2024
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The bedrock response to a melting Antarctic ice sheet delays grounding line retreat by up to 130 years and reduces sea level rise by up to 23% compared to excluding this effect. Current ice sheet models often use computationally fast but simplified Earth models that do not capture this feedback well. We recommend parameters for simple Earth models that approximate bedrock uplift and ice sheet evolution from a complex ice sheet - Earth model to improve sea level projections of the next centuries.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
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The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2855, 2024
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firn, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcings datasets. Our findings suggest that under low emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, under a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, 2024
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
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During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
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Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Lena G. Buth, Valeria Di Biase, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Sophie de Roda Husman, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Bert Wouters
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2000, 2023
Preprint archived
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
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The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
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To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Bert Wouters, Jakob F. Steiner, Emile J. Nieuwstraten, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 2601–2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, 2021
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We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
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The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
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Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
J. Melchior van Wessem, Christian R. Steger, Nander Wever, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 695–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, 2021
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This study presents the first modelled estimates of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) in Antarctica. PFAs are subsurface meltwater bodies that do not refreeze in winter due to the isolating effects of the snow they are buried underneath. They were first identified in Greenland, but conditions for their existence are also present in the Antarctic Peninsula. These PFAs can have important effects on meltwater retention, ice shelf stability, and, consequently, sea level rise.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
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For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Baojuan Huai, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Carleen H. Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 14, 4181–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, 2020
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This study presents the surface energy balance (SEB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using a SEB model forced with observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs). We correlate ERA5 with AWSs to show a significant positive correlation of GrIS summer surface temperature and melt with the Greenland Blocking Index and weaker and opposite correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation. This analysis may help explain melting patterns in the GrIS with respect to circulation anomalies.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Stef Lhermitte, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3645–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, 2020
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The reflectivity of sunlight, which is also known as albedo, is often inadequately modeled in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new snow and ice albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2. In this study, we evaluate a new RACMO2 version for the Greenland ice sheet by using observations and the previous model version. RACMO2 output compares well with observations, and by including new processes we improve the ability of RACMO2 to make future climate projections.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Michael Kern, Robert Cullen, Bruno Berruti, Jerome Bouffard, Tania Casal, Mark R. Drinkwater, Antonio Gabriele, Arnaud Lecuyot, Michael Ludwig, Rolv Midthassel, Ignacio Navas Traver, Tommaso Parrinello, Gerhard Ressler, Erik Andersson, Cristina Martin-Puig, Ole Andersen, Annett Bartsch, Sinead Farrell, Sara Fleury, Simon Gascoin, Amandine Guillot, Angelika Humbert, Eero Rinne, Andrew Shepherd, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and John Yackel
The Cryosphere, 14, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, 2020
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The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter will provide high-resolution sea ice thickness and land ice elevation measurements and the capability to determine the properties of snow cover on ice to serve operational products and services of direct relevance to the polar regions. This paper describes the mission objectives, identifies the key contributions the CRISTAL mission will make, and presents a concept – as far as it is already defined – for the mission payload.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Brice Noël, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Willem Jan van de Berg, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Bert Wouters, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1425–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, 2020
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We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2; ~111 km) to force a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ~11 km), which is further refined to 1 km spatial resolution. For the first time, an Earth-system-model-based product, assimilating no observations, can reconstruct realistic historical ice sheet surface mass balance as well as the mass loss acceleration that started in the 1990s.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
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In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Matthias O. Willen, Martin Horwath, Ludwig Schröder, Andreas Groh, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 349–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-349-2020, 2020
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Quentin Libois, Ghislain Picard, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5157–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, 2019
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Climate models are often limited to relatively simple snow albedo schemes. Therefore, we have developed the SNOWBAL module to couple a climate model with a physically based wavelength dependent snow albedo model. Using SNOWBAL v1.2 to couple the snow albedo model TARTES with the regional climate model RACMO2 indicates a potential performance gain for the Greenland ice sheet.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019
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The Late Pliocene, 3.65–2.75 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history that was warmer than the present. This makes it interesting for climatological research, because it provides a possible analogue for the near future. We used a coupled ice-sheet–climate model to simulate the behaviour of these systems during this period. We show that the warmest moment saw a sea-level rise of 8–14 m, with a CO2 concentration of 320–400 ppmv.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, C. Max Stevens, Michael MacFerrin, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1819–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, 2019
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Firn models rely on empirical approaches for representing the percolation and refreezing of meltwater through the firn column. We develop liquid water schemes of different levels of complexity for firn models and compare their performances with respect to observations of density profiles from Greenland. Our results demonstrate that physically advanced water schemes do not lead to better agreement with density observations. Uncertainties in other processes contribute more to model discrepancy.
Tyler C. Sutterley, Thorsten Markus, Thomas A. Neumann, Michiel van den Broeke, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 1801–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, 2019
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Most of the Antarctic ice sheet is fringed by ice shelves, floating extensions of ice that help to modulate the flow of the glaciers that float into them. We use airborne laser altimetry data to measure changes in ice thickness of ice shelves around West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. Each of our target ice shelves is susceptible to short-term changes in ice thickness. The method developed here provides a framework for processing NASA ICESat-2 data over ice shelves.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
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A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Constantijn L. Jakobs, Carleen H. Reijmer, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Gert König-Langlo, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1473–1485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1473-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1473-2019, 2019
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We use 24 years of observations at Neumayer Station, East Antarctica, to calculate the surface energy balance and the associated surface melt, which we find to be mainly driven by the absorption of solar radiation. Meltwater can refreeze in the subsurface snow layers, thereby decreasing the surface albedo and hence allowing for more absorption of solar radiation. By implementing an albedo parameterisation, we show that this feedback accounts for a threefold increase in surface melt at Neumayer.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Ludwig Schröder, Martin Horwath, Reinhard Dietrich, Veit Helm, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 427–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, 2019
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We developed an approach to combine measurements of seven satellite altimetry missions over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our resulting monthly grids of elevation changes between 1978 and 2017 provide unprecedented details of the long-term and interannual variation. Derived mass changes agree well with contemporaneous data of surface mass balance and satellite gravimetry and show which regions were responsible for the significant accelerations of mass loss in recent years.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
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Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Michalea D. King, Ian M. Howat, Seongsu Jeong, Myoung J. Noh, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3813–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, 2018
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We derive the first continuous record of total ice discharged from all large Greenland outlet glaciers over the 2000–2016 period, resolving a distinct pattern of seasonal variability. We compare these results to glacier retreat and meltwater runoff and find that while runoff has a limited impact on ice discharge in summer, long-term changes in discharge are highly correlated to retreat. These results help to better understand Greenland outlet glacier sensitivity over a range of timescales.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018
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We have devised a novel way to couple a climate model to an ice-sheet model. Usually, climate models are too slow to simulate more than a few centuries, whereas our new model set-up can simulate a full 120 000-year ice age in about 12 h. This makes it possible to look at the interactions between global climate and ice sheets on long timescales, something which is relevant for both research into past climate and future projections.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
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Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Michael P. Schodlok, Eric Y. Larour, Carmen Boening, Daniel Limonadi, Michael M. Watkins, Mathieu Morlighem, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3511–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3511-2018, 2018
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Using NASA supercomputers and a novel framework, in which Sandia National Laboratories' statistical software is embedded in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's ice sheet model, we run a range of 100-year warming scenarios for Antarctica. We find that 1.2 m of sea level contribution is achievable, but not likely. Also, we find that bedrock topography beneath the ice drives potential for regional sea level contribution, highlighting the need for accurate bedrock mapping of the ice sheet interior.
Jiangjun Ran, Miren Vizcaino, Pavel Ditmar, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Twila Moon, Christian R. Steger, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, Catharina H. Reijmer, Roland Klees, Min Zhong, Lin Liu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 2981–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, 2018
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To accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry, surface mass balance, and ice discharge to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal scales. This study, for the first time, suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. We highlight its importance for understanding ice sheet mass variability
Rajashree Tri Datta, Marco Tedesco, Cecile Agosta, Xavier Fettweis, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 2901–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2901-2018, 2018
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Surface melting on the East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP) has been linked to ice shelf collapse, including the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) ice shelves. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a valuable tool to understand how wind patterns and general warming can impact the stability of ice shelves through surface melt. Here, we evaluate one such RCM (Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale) over the East AP, including the remaining Larsen C ice shelf, by comparing it to satellite and ground data.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1643–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, 2018
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Firn is the transitional product between fresh snow and glacier ice, and a 10-100 m thick layer covers the Greenland ice sheet. It has the capacity to store meltwater and thereby mitigate runoff to the ocean. Using a model and improved atmospheric forcing, we simulate firn density and temperature that agrees well with observations from firn cores. Especially in the regions with substantial melt, and therefore the most sensitive to a warming climate, the results improved significantly.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Helmut Rott, Wael Abdel Jaber, Jan Wuite, Stefan Scheiblauer, Dana Floricioiu, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Thomas Nagler, Nuno Miranda, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1273–1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1273-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1273-2018, 2018
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We analysed volume change, mass balance and ice flow of glaciers draining into the Larsen A and Larsen B embayments on the Antarctic Peninsula for 2011 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016. The mass balance is based on elevation change measured by the radar satellite mission TanDEM-X and on the mass budget method. The glaciers show continuing losses in ice mass, which is a response to ice shelf break-up. After 2013 the downwasting of glaciers slowed down, coinciding with years of persistent sea ice cover.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Alex S. Gardner, Geir Moholdt, Ted Scambos, Mark Fahnstock, Stefan Ligtenberg, Michiel van den Broeke, and Johan Nilsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018
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We map present-day Antarctic surface velocities from Landsat imagery and compare to earlier estimates from radar. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 89 % of the observed increase in ice discharge. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic have been remarkably stable. Our work suggests that patterns of mass loss are part of a longer-term phase of enhanced flow.
Werner M. J. Lazeroms, Adrian Jenkins, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 12, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018, 2018
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Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
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This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
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Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Christian R. Steger, Carleen H. Reijmer, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 2507–2526, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2507-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2507-2017, 2017
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Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, is currently dominated by surface melt and run-off. The relation between these two variables is rather uncertain due to the firn layer’s potential to buffer melt in solid (refreezing) or liquid (firn aquifer) form. To address this uncertainty, we analyse output of a numerical firn model run over 1960–2014. Results show a spatially variable response of the ice sheet to increasing melt and an upward migration of aquifers.
Peter Kuipers Munneke, Daniel McGrath, Brooke Medley, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, Bernd Kulessa, Daniela Jansen, Adam Booth, Paul Smeets, Bryn Hubbard, David Ashmore, Michiel Van den Broeke, Heidi Sevestre, Konrad Steffen, Andrew Shepherd, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 11, 2411–2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, 2017
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How much snow falls on the Larsen C ice shelf? This is a relevant question, because this ice shelf might collapse sometime this century. To know if and when this could happen, we found out how much snow falls on its surface. This was difficult, because there are only very few measurements. Here, we used data from automatic weather stations, sled-pulled radars, and a climate model to find that melting the annual snowfall produces about 20 cm of water in the NE and over 70 cm in the SW.
Lennert B. Stap, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas de Boer, Richard Bintanja, and Lucas J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017
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We show the results of transient simulations with a coupled climate–ice sheet model over the past 38 million years. The CO2 forcing of the model is inversely obtained from a benthic δ18O stack. These simulations enable us to study the influence of ice sheet variability on climate change on long timescales. We find that ice sheet–climate interaction strongly enhances Earth system sensitivity and polar amplification.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
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Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Riccardo E. M. Riva, Thomas Frederikse, Matt A. King, Ben Marzeion, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 1327–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1327-2017, 2017
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The reduction of ice masses stored on land has made an important contribution to sea-level rise over the last century, as well as changed the Earth's shape. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have varied strongly throughout the last century, which affects the interpretation and extrapolation of recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.
Markella Prokopiou, Patricia Martinerie, Célia J. Sapart, Emmanuel Witrant, Guillaume Monteil, Kentaro Ishijima, Sophie Bernard, Jan Kaiser, Ingeborg Levin, Thomas Blunier, David Etheridge, Ed Dlugokencky, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4539–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, 2017
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Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an increasing mole fraction. To understand its natural and anthropogenic sources
we employ isotope measurements. Results show that while the N2O mole fraction increases, its heavy isotope content decreases. The isotopic changes observed underline the dominance of agricultural emissions especially at the early part of the record, whereas in the later decades the contribution from other anthropogenic sources increases.
Harry Zekollari, Philippe Huybrechts, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 805–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, 2017
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In this study the dynamics of the world’s northernmost ice cap are investigated with a 3-D ice flow model. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions
an ice cap similar to the observed one is obtained, with comparable geometry and surface velocities. The southern part of the ice cap is very unstable,
and under early-21st-century climatic conditions this part of the ice cap fully disappears. In a projected warmer and wetter climate the ice cap will at
first steepen, before eventually disappearing.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
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We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
Constantijn J. Berends and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016
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This paper describes several improvements to the so-called "flood-fill algorithm" – a computer program widely known for its use in the "paint bucket" tool in several drawing programs such as MS Paint. However, it can also be used to determine the extent and depth of lakes in a topography map, which is useful in hydrology and climatology. In such cases, the default algorithm can be too slow to be of much use. Our improvements can make it up to 100 times faster, making it much more feasible.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
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Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Horst Machguth, Stef Lhermitte, Ian Howat, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 2361–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016
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We present a 1 km resolution data set (1958–2015) of daily Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), statistically downscaled from the data of RACMO2.3 at 11 km using elevation dependence, precipitation and bare ice albedo corrections. The data set resolves Greenland narrow ablation zones and local outlet glaciers, and shows more realistic SMB patterns, owing to enhanced runoff at the ice sheet margins. An evaluation of the product against SMB measurements shows improved agreement.
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, David N. Wiese, Eric Y. Larour, Michael M. Watkins, Jason E. Box, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 1965–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016, 2016
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We investigate Greenland Ice Sheet mass change from 2003–2012 by comparing observations from GRACE with state-of-the-art atmospheric and ice sheet model simulations. We find that the largest discrepancies (in the northwest and southeast) are likely controlled by errors in modeled surface climate as well as ice–ocean interaction and hydrological processes (not included in the models). Models should consider such processes at monthly to seasonal resolutions in order to improve future projections.
Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Ian M. Howat, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016
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We present recent (1958–2015) mass balance time series for the Greenland ice sheet. We show that recent mass loss is caused by a combination of increased surface meltwater runoff and solid ice discharge. Most meltwater above 2000 m a.s.l. refreezes in the cold firn and does not leave the ice sheet, but this goes at the expense of firn heating and densifying. In spite of a temporary rebound in 2013, it appears that the ice sheet remains in a state of persistent mass loss.
Zheng Xu, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Wouter van der Wal, Michiel van den Broeke, and Ellyn M. Enderlin
The Cryosphere, 10, 895–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-895-2016, 2016
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In this paper, we compare the regional mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet between the solutions based on GRACE data and input/output method. Differences are found in some regions and indicate errors in those solutions. Therefore we improve our GRACE and IOM solutions by applying a simulation. We show the improved regional mass changes approximations are more consistent in regions. The remaining difference in the northwester Greenland is due to the underestimated uncertainty in IOM solution.
Wenshan Wang, Charles S. Zender, Dirk van As, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-727-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-727-2016, 2016
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We identify and correct station-tilt-induced biases in insolation observed by automatic weather stations on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Without tilt correction, only 40 % of clear days have the correct solar noon time (±0.5 h). The largest hourly bias exceeds 20 %. We estimate the tilt angles based on solar geometric relationship between insolation observed on horizontal surfaces and that on tilted surfaces, and produce shortwave radiation and albedo that agree better with independent data sets.
Ioana S. Muresan, Shfaqat A. Khan, Andy Aschwanden, Constantine Khroulev, Tonie Van Dam, Jonathan Bamber, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Bert Wouters, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Kurt H. Kjær
The Cryosphere, 10, 597–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-597-2016, 2016
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We use a regional 3-D outlet glacier model to simulate the behaviour of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) during 1990–2014. The model simulates two major accelerations in 1998 and 2003 that are consistent with observations. We find that most of the JI retreat during the simulated period is driven by the ocean parametrization used, and the glacier's subsequent response, which is largely governed by bed geometry. The study shows progress in modelling the temporal variability of the flow at JI.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
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This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
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We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
C. Charalampidis, D. van As, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, W. T. Colgan, S. H. Doyle, A. L. Hubbard, M. MacFerrin, H. Machguth, and C. J. P. P. Smeets
The Cryosphere, 9, 2163–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2163-2015, 2015
P. Kuipers Munneke, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, B. P. Y. Noël, I. M. Howat, J. E. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, J. R. McConnell, K. Steffen, J. T. Harper, S. B. Das, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, 2015
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The snow layer on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing: it is thickening in the high and cold interior due to increased snowfall, while it is thinning around the margins. The marginal thinning is caused by compaction, and by more melt.
This knowledge is important: there are satellites that measure volume change of the ice sheet. It can be caused by increased ice discharge, or by compaction of the snow layer. Here, we quantify the latter, so that we can translate volume to mass change.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
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We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
S. de la Peña, I. M. Howat, P. W. Nienow, M. R. van den Broeke, E. Mosley-Thompson, S. F. Price, D. Mair, B. Noël, and A. J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 9, 1203–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, 2015
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This paper presents an assessment of changes in the near-surface structure of the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by an increase of melt at higher elevations in the last decade, especially during the unusually warm years of 2010 and 2012. The increase in melt and firn densification complicate the interpretation of changes in the ice volume, and the observed increase in firn ice content may reduce the important meltwater buffering capacity of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1089–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, 2015
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We performed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 metres of firn at Summit, Greenland, by following over a 4-year period isotope-enriched snow that we deposited.
We found that the diffusion process was much less rapid than in the most commonly used model. We discuss several aspects of the diffusion process that are still poorly constrained and might lead to this discrepancy. Quantitative knowledge of diffusion is necessary for use of the diffusion process itself as a climate proxy.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
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This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
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The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
B. Noël, X. Fettweis, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 8, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, 2014
B. de Boer, P. Stocchi, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014
S. R. M. Ligtenberg, P. Kuipers Munneke, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 1711–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, 2014
S. A. Khan, K. K. Kjeldsen, K. H. Kjær, S. Bevan, A. Luckman, A. Aschwanden, A. A. Bjørk, N. J. Korsgaard, J. E. Box, M. van den Broeke, T. M. van Dam, and A. Fitzner
The Cryosphere, 8, 1497–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1497-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1497-2014, 2014
H. Fréville, E. Brun, G. Picard, N. Tatarinova, L. Arnaud, C. Lanconelli, C. Reijmer, and M. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 1361–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1361-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1361-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
J. T. M. Lenaerts, C. J. P. P. Smeets, K. Nishimura, M. Eijkelboom, W. Boot, M. R. van den Broeke, and W. J. van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 8, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, 2014
B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban
The Cryosphere, 8, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, 2014
J. M. van Wessem, C. H. Reijmer, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 8, 125–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, 2014
I. Sasgen, H. Konrad, E. R. Ivins, M. R. Van den Broeke, J. L. Bamber, Z. Martinec, and V. Klemann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1499–1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1499-2013, 2013
A. K. Rennermalm, L. C. Smith, V. W. Chu, J. E. Box, R. R. Forster, M. R. Van den Broeke, D. Van As, and S. E. Moustafa
The Cryosphere, 7, 1433–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1433-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1433-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
I. Joughin, S. B. Das, G. E. Flowers, M. D. Behn, R. B. Alley, M. A. King, B. E. Smith, J. L. Bamber, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. H. van Angelen
The Cryosphere, 7, 1185–1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1185-2013, 2013
W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, E. van Meijgaard, and F. Kaspar
Clim. Past, 9, 1589–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1589-2013, 2013
C. L. Vernon, J. L. Bamber, J. E. Box, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, and P. Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 7, 599–614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-599-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, B. Franco, M. Tedesco, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013
I. M. Howat, S. de la Peña, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 7, 201–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike
Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
T. J. Reerink, M. A. Kliphuis, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 13–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
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Effects of Arctic sea-ice concentration on surface radiative fluxes in four atmospheric reanalyses
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Assessment and comparison of thermal stabilisation measures at an Alpine permafrost site, Switzerland
Brief communication: Accurate and autonomous snow water equivalent measurements using a cosmic ray sensor on a Himalayan glacier
Surface heat fluxes at coarse blocky Murtèl rock glacier (Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps)
Modeling snowpack dynamics and surface energy budget in boreal and subarctic peatlands and forests
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Brief communication: Surface energy balance differences over Greenland between ERA5 and ERA-Interim
A computationally efficient statistically downscaled 100 m resolution Greenland product from the regional climate model MAR
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Sensitivity of the surface energy budget to drifting snow as simulated by MAR in coastal Adelie Land, Antarctica
Firn changes at Colle Gnifetti revealed with a high-resolution process-based physical model approach
The surface energy balance in a cold and arid permafrost environment, Ladakh, Himalayas, India
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Spectral attenuation coefficients from measurements of light transmission in bare ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet
On the statistical properties of sea-ice lead fraction and heat fluxes in the Arctic
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Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila
The Cryosphere, 19, 1031–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1031-2025, 2025
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To better understand the local, regional, and global impacts of the recent rapid sea-ice decline in the Arctic, one of the key issues is to quantify the effects of sea-ice concentration on the surface radiative fluxes. We analyse these effects utilising four data sets called atmospheric reanalyses, and we evaluate uncertainties in these effects arising from inter-reanalysis differences in the sensitivity of the surface radiative fluxes to sea-ice concentration.
Raphaël Larouche, Bastian Raulier, Christian Katlein, Simon Lambert-Girard, Simon Thibault, and Marcel Babin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5V955, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5V955, 2025
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We developed a new method to study how light interacts with sea ice using a compact 360-degree camera. By lowering this camera into drilled holes in ice, we captured detailed light patterns inside different ice layers. Our research revealed how light is absorbed and scattered in both Arctic multi-year ice and thinner, seasonal ice in Quebec. These findings improve our understanding of sea ice structure and its role in the climate system, helping representation sea ice in models.
Lea Hartl, Federico Covi, Martin Stocker-Waldhuber, Anna Baldo, Davide Fugazza, Biagio Di Mauro, and Kathrin Naegeli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-384, 2025
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Glacier albedo determines how much solar radiation is absorbed by the glacier surface and is a key driver of glacier melt. Alpine glaciers are losing their snow and firn cover and the underlying, darker ice is becoming exposed. This means that more solar radiation is absorbed by the ice, which leads to increased melt. To quantify these processes, we explore data from a high elevation, on-ice weather station that measures albedo and combine this information with satellite imagery.
Elizaveta Sharaborova, Michael Lehning, Nander Wever, Marcia Phillips, and Hendrik Huwald
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4174, 2025
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Global warming provokes permafrost to thaw, damaging landscapes and infrastructure. This study explores methods to slow this thawing at an alpine site. We investigate different methods based on passive and active cooling system. The best approach mixes both methods and manages heat flow, potentially allowing excess energy to be used locally.
Navaraj Pokhrel, Patrick Wagnon, Fanny Brun, Arbindra Khadka, Tom Matthews, Audrey Goutard, Dibas Shrestha, Baker Perry, and Marion Réveillet
The Cryosphere, 18, 5913–5920, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5913-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5913-2024, 2024
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We studied snow processes in the accumulation area of Mera Glacier (central Himalaya, Nepal) by deploying a cosmic ray counting sensor that allows one to track the evolution of snow water equivalent. We suspect significant surface melting, water percolation, and refreezing within the snowpack, which might be missed by traditional mass balance surveys.
Dominik Amschwand, Martin Scherler, Martin Hoelzle, Bernhard Krummenacher, Anna Haberkorn, Christian Kienholz, and Hansueli Gubler
The Cryosphere, 18, 2103–2139, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2103-2024, 2024
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Rock glaciers are coarse-debris permafrost landforms that are comparatively climate resilient. We estimate the surface energy balance of rock glacier Murtèl (Swiss Alps) based on a large surface and sub-surface sensor array. During the thaw seasons 2021 and 2022, 90 % of the net radiation was exported via turbulent heat fluxes and only 10 % was transmitted towards the ground ice table. However, early snowmelt and droughts make these permafrost landforms vulnerable to climate warming.
Jari-Pekka Nousu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Giulia Mazzotti, Pertti Ala-aho, Hannu Marttila, Bertrand Cluzet, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Pasi Kolari, Aaron Boone, Mathieu Fructus, and Samuli Launiainen
The Cryosphere, 18, 231–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-231-2024, 2024
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The snowpack has a major impact on the land surface energy budget. Accurate simulation of the snowpack energy budget is difficult, and studies that evaluate models against energy budget observations are rare. We compared predictions from well-known models with observations of energy budgets, snow depths and soil temperatures in Finland. Our study identified contrasting strengths and limitations for the models. These results can be used for choosing the right models depending on the use cases.
Christina Draeger, Valentina Radić, Rachel H. White, and Mekdes Ayalew Tessema
The Cryosphere, 18, 17–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-17-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-17-2024, 2024
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Our study increases our confidence in using reanalysis data for reconstructions of past glacier melt and in using dynamical downscaling for long-term simulations from global climate models to project glacier melt. We find that the surface energy balance model, forced with reanalysis and dynamically downscaled reanalysis data, yields <10 % difference in the modeled total melt energy when compared to the same model being forced with observations at our glacier sites in western Canada.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 5131–5136, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5131-2023, 2023
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We compare components of the surface energy balance from two datasets, ERA5 and ERA-Interim, which can be used to estimate the surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). ERA5 differs significantly from ERA-Interim, especially in the melt regions with lower temperatures and stronger shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS SMB from ERA-Interim need to be carefully recalibrated before conversion to ERA5 forcing.
Marco Tedesco, Paolo Colosio, Xavier Fettweis, and Guido Cervone
The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023
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We developed a technique to improve the outputs of a model that calculates the gain and loss of Greenland and consequently its contribution to sea level rise. Our technique generates “sharper” images of the maps generated by the model to better understand and quantify where losses occur. This has implications for improving models, understanding what drives the contributions of Greenland to sea level rise, and more.
Andri Gunnarsson, Sigurdur M. Gardarsson, and Finnur Pálsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 3955–3986, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3955-2023, 2023
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A model was developed with the possibility of utilizing satellite-derived daily surface albedo driven by high-resolution climate data to estimate the surface energy balance (SEB) for all Icelandic glaciers for the period 2000–2021.
Franziska Temme, David Farías-Barahona, Thorsten Seehaus, Ricardo Jaña, Jorge Arigony-Neto, Inti Gonzalez, Anselm Arndt, Tobias Sauter, Christoph Schneider, and Johannes J. Fürst
The Cryosphere, 17, 2343–2365, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2343-2023, 2023
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Calibration of surface mass balance (SMB) models on regional scales is challenging. We investigate different calibration strategies with the goal of achieving realistic simulations of the SMB in the Monte Sarmiento Massif, Tierra del Fuego. Our results show that the use of regional observations from satellite data can improve the model performance. Furthermore, we compare four melt models of different complexity to understand the benefit of increasing the processes considered in the model.
Yingzhen Zhou, Wei Li, Nan Chen, Yongzhen Fan, and Knut Stamnes
The Cryosphere, 17, 1053–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1053-2023, 2023
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We present a method to compute albedo (percentage of the light reflected) of the cryosphere surface using observations from optical satellite sensors. This method can be applied to sea ice, snow-covered ice, melt pond, open ocean, and mixtures thereof. Evaluation of the albedo values calculated using this approach demonstrated excellent agreement with observations. In addition, we have included a statistical comparison of the proposed method's results with those derived from other approaches.
Muhammad Fraz Ismail, Wolfgang Bogacki, Markus Disse, Michael Schäfer, and Lothar Kirschbauer
The Cryosphere, 17, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-211-2023, 2023
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Fresh water from mountainous catchments in the form of snowmelt and ice melt is of critical importance especially in the summer season for people living in these regions. In general, limited data availability is the core concern while modelling the snow and ice melt components from these mountainous catchments. This research will be helpful in selecting realistic parameter values (i.e. degree-day factor) while calibrating the temperature-index models for data-scarce regions.
Marlene Kronenberg, Ward van Pelt, Horst Machguth, Joel Fiddes, Martin Hoelzle, and Felix Pertziger
The Cryosphere, 16, 5001–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022, 2022
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The Pamir Alay is located at the edge of regions with anomalous glacier mass changes. Unique long-term in situ data are available for Abramov Glacier, located in the Pamir Alay. In this study, we use this extraordinary data set in combination with reanalysis data and a coupled surface energy balance–multilayer subsurface model to compute and analyse the distributed climatic mass balance and firn evolution from 1968 to 2020.
Marte G. Hofsteenge, Nicolas J. Cullen, Carleen H. Reijmer, Michiel van den Broeke, Marwan Katurji, and John F. Orwin
The Cryosphere, 16, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5041-2022, 2022
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In the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), foehn winds can impact glacial meltwater production and the fragile ecosystem that depends on it. We study these dry and warm winds at Joyce Glacier and show they are caused by a different mechanism than that found for nearby valleys, demonstrating the complex interaction of large-scale winds with the mountains in the MDV. We find that foehn winds increase sublimation of ice, increase heating from the atmosphere, and increase the occurrence and rates of melt.
Marin Kneib, Evan S. Miles, Pascal Buri, Stefan Fugger, Michael McCarthy, Thomas E. Shaw, Zhao Chuanxi, Martin Truffer, Matthew J. Westoby, Wei Yang, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 4701–4725, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4701-2022, 2022
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Ice cliffs are believed to be important contributors to the melt of debris-covered glaciers, but this has rarely been quantified as the cliffs can disappear or rapidly expand within a few weeks. We used photogrammetry techniques to quantify the weekly evolution and melt of four cliffs. We found that their behaviour and melt during the monsoon is strongly controlled by supraglacial debris, streams and ponds, thus providing valuable insights on the melt and evolution of debris-covered glaciers.
Luuk D. van der Valk, Adriaan J. Teuling, Luc Girod, Norbert Pirk, Robin Stoffer, and Chiel C. van Heerwaarden
The Cryosphere, 16, 4319–4341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4319-2022, 2022
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Most large-scale hydrological and climate models struggle to capture the spatially highly variable wind-driven melt of patchy snow cover. In the field, we find that 60 %–80 % of the total melt is wind driven at the upwind edge of a snow patch, while it does not contribute at the downwind edge. Our idealized simulations show that the variation is due to a patch-size-independent air-temperature reduction over snow patches and also allow us to study the role of wind-driven snowmelt on larger scales.
Alex West, Edward Blockley, and Matthew Collins
The Cryosphere, 16, 4013–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022, 2022
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In this study we explore a method of examining model differences in ice volume by looking at the seasonal ice growth and melt. We use simple physical relationships to judge how model differences in key variables affect ice growth and melt and apply these to three case study models with ice volume ranging from very thin to very thick. Results suggest that differences in snow and melt pond cover in early summer are most important in causing the sea ice differences for these models.
Arindan Mandal, Thupstan Angchuk, Mohd Farooq Azam, Alagappan Ramanathan, Patrick Wagnon, Mohd Soheb, and Chetan Singh
The Cryosphere, 16, 3775–3799, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3775-2022, 2022
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Snow sublimation is an important component of glacier surface mass balance; however, it is seldom studied in detail in the Himalayan region owing to data scarcity. We present an 11-year record of wintertime snow-surface energy balance and sublimation characteristics at the Chhota Shigri Glacier moraine site at 4863 m a.s.l. The estimated winter sublimation is 16 %–42 % of the winter snowfall at the study site, which signifies how sublimation is important in the Himalayan region.
Zachary Fair, Mark Flanner, Adam Schneider, and S. McKenzie Skiles
The Cryosphere, 16, 3801–3814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3801-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3801-2022, 2022
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Snow grain size is important to determine the age and structure of snow, but it is difficult to measure. Snow grain size can be found from airborne and spaceborne observations by measuring near-infrared energy reflected from snow. In this study, we use the SNICAR radiative transfer model and a Monte Carlo model to examine how snow grain size measurements change with snow structure and solar zenith angle. We show that improved understanding of these variables improves snow grain size precision.
Gauthier Vérin, Florent Domine, Marcel Babin, Ghislain Picard, and Laurent Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 16, 3431–3449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3431-2022, 2022
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Snow physical properties on Arctic sea ice are monitored during the melt season. As snow grains grow, and the snowpack thickness is reduced, the surface albedo decreases. The extra absorbed energy accelerates melting. Radiative transfer modeling shows that more radiation is then transmitted to the snow–sea-ice interface. A sharp increase in transmitted radiation takes place when the snowpack thins significantly, and this coincides with the initiation of the phytoplankton bloom in the seawater.
Jonathan P. Conway, Jakob Abermann, Liss M. Andreassen, Mohd Farooq Azam, Nicolas J. Cullen, Noel Fitzpatrick, Rianne H. Giesen, Kirsty Langley, Shelley MacDonell, Thomas Mölg, Valentina Radić, Carleen H. Reijmer, and Jean-Emmanuel Sicart
The Cryosphere, 16, 3331–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3331-2022, 2022
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We used data from automatic weather stations on 16 glaciers to show how clouds influence glacier melt in different climates around the world. We found surface melt was always more frequent when it was cloudy but was not universally faster or slower than under clear-sky conditions. Also, air temperature was related to clouds in opposite ways in different climates – warmer with clouds in cold climates and vice versa. These results will help us improve how we model past and future glacier melt.
Christophe Kinnard, Olivier Larouche, Michael N. Demuth, and Brian Menounos
The Cryosphere, 16, 3071–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3071-2022, 2022
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This study implements a physically based, distributed glacier mass balance model in a context of sparse direct observations. Carefully constraining model parameters with ancillary data allowed for accurately reconstructing the mass balance of Saskatchewan Glacier over a 37-year period. We show that the mass balance sensitivity to warming is dominated by increased melting and that changes in glacier albedo and air humidity are the leading causes of increased glacier melt under warming scenarios.
Patrick Le Moigne, Eric Bazile, Anning Cheng, Emanuel Dutra, John M. Edwards, William Maurel, Irina Sandu, Olivier Traullé, Etienne Vignon, Ayrton Zadra, and Weizhong Zheng
The Cryosphere, 16, 2183–2202, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2183-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an intercomparison of snow models, of varying complexity, used for numerical weather prediction or academic research. The results show that the simplest models are, under certain conditions, able to reproduce the surface temperature just as well as the most complex models. Moreover, the diversity of surface parameters of the models has a strong impact on the temporal variability of the components of the simulated surface energy balance.
Edward H. Bair, Jeff Dozier, Charles Stern, Adam LeWinter, Karl Rittger, Alexandria Savagian, Timbo Stillinger, and Robert E. Davis
The Cryosphere, 16, 1765–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1765-2022, 2022
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Understanding how snow and ice reflect solar radiation (albedo) is important for global climate. Using high-resolution topography, darkening from surface roughness (apparent albedo) is separated from darkening by the composition of the snow (intrinsic albedo). Intrinsic albedo is usually greater than apparent albedo, especially during melt. Such high-resolution topography is often not available; thus the use of a shade component when modeling mixtures is advised.
Stefan Fugger, Catriona L. Fyffe, Simone Fatichi, Evan Miles, Michael McCarthy, Thomas E. Shaw, Baohong Ding, Wei Yang, Patrick Wagnon, Walter Immerzeel, Qiao Liu, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1631-2022, 2022
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The monsoon is important for the shrinking and growing of glaciers in the Himalaya during summer. We calculate the melt of seven glaciers in the region using a complex glacier melt model and weather data. We find that monsoonal weather affects glaciers that are covered with a layer of rocky debris and glaciers without such a layer in different ways. It is important to take so-called turbulent fluxes into account. This knowledge is vital for predicting the future of the Himalayan glaciers.
Noriaki Ohara, Benjamin M. Jones, Andrew D. Parsekian, Kenneth M. Hinkel, Katsu Yamatani, Mikhail Kanevskiy, Rodrigo C. Rangel, Amy L. Breen, and Helena Bergstedt
The Cryosphere, 16, 1247–1264, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1247-2022, 2022
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New variational principle suggests that a semi-ellipsoid talik shape (3D Stefan equation) is optimum for incoming energy. However, the lake bathymetry tends to be less ellipsoidal due to the ice-rich layers near the surface. Wind wave erosion is likely responsible for the elongation of lakes, while thaw subsidence slows the wave effect and stabilizes the thermokarst lakes. The derived 3D Stefan equation was compared to the field-observed talik thickness data using geophysical methods.
Chloe A. Whicker, Mark G. Flanner, Cheng Dang, Charles S. Zender, Joseph M. Cook, and Alex S. Gardner
The Cryosphere, 16, 1197–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1197-2022, 2022
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Snow and ice surfaces are important to the global climate. Current climate models use measurements to determine the reflectivity of ice. This model uses physical properties to determine the reflectivity of snow, ice, and darkly pigmented impurities that reside within the snow and ice. Therefore, the modeled reflectivity is more accurate for snow/ice columns under varying climate conditions. This model paves the way for improvements in the portrayal of snow and ice within global climate models.
Yi Zhao, Zhuotong Nan, Hailong Ji, and Lin Zhao
The Cryosphere, 16, 825–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-825-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-825-2022, 2022
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Convective heat transfer (CHT) is important in affecting thermal regimes in permafrost regions. We quantified its thermal impacts by contrasting the simulation results from three scenarios in which the Simultaneous Heat and Water model includes full, partial, and no consideration of CHT. The results show the CHT commonly happens in shallow and middle soil depths during thawing periods and has greater impacts in spring than summer. The CHT has both heating and cooling effects on the active layer.
Alvaro Robledano, Ghislain Picard, Laurent Arnaud, Fanny Larue, and Inès Ollivier
The Cryosphere, 16, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-559-2022, 2022
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Topography controls the surface temperature of snow-covered, mountainous areas. We developed a modelling chain that uses ray-tracing methods to quantify the impact of a few topographic effects on snow surface temperature at high spatial resolution. Its large spatial and temporal variations are correctly simulated over a 50 km2 area in the French Alps, and our results show that excluding a single topographic effect results in cooling (or warming) effects on the order of 1 °C.
Maria Zeitz, Ronja Reese, Johanna Beckmann, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5739–5764, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, 2021
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With the increasing melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, the surface of the ice darkens. The dark surfaces absorb more radiation and thus experience increased melt, resulting in the melt–albedo feedback. Using a simple surface melt model, we estimate that this positive feedback contributes to an additional 60 % ice loss in a high-warming scenario and additional 90 % ice loss for moderate warming. Albedo changes are important for Greenland’s future ice loss.
Annelies Voordendag, Marion Réveillet, Shelley MacDonell, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 15, 4241–4259, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4241-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4241-2021, 2021
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The sensitivity of two snow models (SNOWPACK and SnowModel) to various parameterizations and atmospheric forcing biases is assessed in the semi-arid Andes of Chile in winter 2017. Models show that sublimation is a main driver of ablation and that its relative contribution to total ablation is highly sensitive to the selected albedo parameterization and snow roughness length. The forcing and parameterizations are more important than the model choice, despite differences in physical complexity.
Minghu Ding, Tong Zhang, Diyi Yang, Ian Allison, Tingfeng Dou, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 15, 4201–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4201-2021, 2021
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Measurement of snow heat conductivity is essential to establish the energy balance between the atmosphere and firn, but it is still not clear in Antarctica. Here, we used data from three automatic weather stations located in different types of climate and evaluated nine schemes that were used to calculate the effective heat diffusivity of snow. The best solution was proposed. However, no conductivity–density relationship was optimal at all sites, and the performance of each varied with depth.
Louis Le Toumelin, Charles Amory, Vincent Favier, Christoph Kittel, Stefan Hofer, Xavier Fettweis, Hubert Gallée, and Vinay Kayetha
The Cryosphere, 15, 3595–3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3595-2021, 2021
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Snow is frequently eroded from the surface by the wind in Adelie Land (Antarctica) and suspended in the lower atmosphere. By performing model simulations, we show firstly that suspended snow layers interact with incoming radiation similarly to a near-surface cloud. Secondly, suspended snow modifies the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure and energy exchanges with the surface. Our results suggest snow transport by the wind should be taken into account in future model studies over the region.
Enrico Mattea, Horst Machguth, Marlene Kronenberg, Ward van Pelt, Manuela Bassi, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 15, 3181–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3181-2021, 2021
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In our study we find that climate change is affecting the high-alpine Colle Gnifetti glacier (Swiss–Italian Alps) with an increase in melt amounts and ice temperatures.
In the near future this trend could threaten the viability of the oldest ice core record in the Alps.
To reach our conclusions, for the first time we used the meteorological data of the highest permanent weather station in Europe (Capanna Margherita, 4560 m), together with an advanced numeric simulation of the glacier.
John Mohd Wani, Renoj J. Thayyen, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, and Stephan Gruber
The Cryosphere, 15, 2273–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2273-2021, 2021
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We study the surface energy balance from a cold-arid permafrost environment in the Indian Himalayan region. The GEOtop model was used for the modelling of surface energy balance. Our results show that the variability in the turbulent heat fluxes is similar to that reported from the seasonally frozen ground and permafrost regions of the Tibetan Plateau. Further, the low relative humidity could be playing a critical role in the surface energy balance and the permafrost processes.
Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Paul Gierz, Christian B. Rodehacke, Shan Xu, Hu Yang, and Gerrit Lohmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2295–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2295-2021, 2021
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The surface mass balance scheme dEBM (diurnal Energy Balance Model) provides a novel, computationally inexpensive interface between the atmosphere and land ice for Earth system modeling. The dEBM is particularly suitable for Earth system modeling on multi-millennial timescales as it accounts for changes in the Earth's orbit and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration.
Matthew G. Cooper, Laurence C. Smith, Asa K. Rennermalm, Marco Tedesco, Rohi Muthyala, Sasha Z. Leidman, Samiah E. Moustafa, and Jessica V. Fayne
The Cryosphere, 15, 1931–1953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1931-2021, 2021
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We measured sunlight transmitted into glacier ice to improve models of glacier ice melt and satellite measurements of glacier ice surfaces. We found that very small concentrations of impurities inside the ice increase absorption of sunlight, but the amount was small enough to enable an estimate of ice absorptivity. We confirmed earlier results that the absorption minimum is near 390 nm. We also found that a layer of highly reflective granular "white ice" near the surface reduces transmittance.
Einar Ólason, Pierre Rampal, and Véronique Dansereau
The Cryosphere, 15, 1053–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1053-2021, 2021
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We analyse the fractal properties observed in the pattern of the long, narrow openings that form in Arctic sea ice known as leads. We use statistical tools to explore the fractal properties of the lead fraction observed in satellite data and show that our sea-ice model neXtSIM displays the same behaviour. Building on this result we then show that the pattern of heat loss from ocean to atmosphere in the model displays similar fractal properties, stemming from the fractal properties of the leads.
Terhikki Manninen, Kati Anttila, Emmihenna Jääskeläinen, Aku Riihelä, Jouni Peltoniemi, Petri Räisänen, Panu Lahtinen, Niilo Siljamo, Laura Thölix, Outi Meinander, Anna Kontu, Hanne Suokanerva, Roberta Pirazzini, Juha Suomalainen, Teemu Hakala, Sanna Kaasalainen, Harri Kaartinen, Antero Kukko, Olivier Hautecoeur, and Jean-Louis Roujean
The Cryosphere, 15, 793–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-793-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-793-2021, 2021
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The primary goal of this paper is to present a model of snow surface albedo (brightness) accounting for small-scale surface roughness effects. It can be combined with any volume scattering model. The results indicate that surface roughness may decrease the albedo by about 1–3 % in midwinter and even more than 10 % during the late melting season. The effect is largest for low solar zenith angle values and lower bulk snow albedo values.
Christian Katlein, Lovro Valcic, Simon Lambert-Girard, and Mario Hoppmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 183–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-183-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-183-2021, 2021
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To improve autonomous investigations of sea ice optical properties, we designed a chain of multispectral light sensors, providing autonomous in-ice light measurements. Here we describe the system and the data acquired from a first prototype deployment. We show that sideward-looking planar irradiance sensors basically measure scalar irradiance and demonstrate the use of this sensor chain to derive light transmittance and inherent optical properties of sea ice.
Baojuan Huai, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Carleen H. Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 14, 4181–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4181-2020, 2020
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This study presents the surface energy balance (SEB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using a SEB model forced with observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs). We correlate ERA5 with AWSs to show a significant positive correlation of GrIS summer surface temperature and melt with the Greenland Blocking Index and weaker and opposite correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation. This analysis may help explain melting patterns in the GrIS with respect to circulation anomalies.
Shawn J. Marshall and Kristina Miller
The Cryosphere, 14, 3249–3267, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3249-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3249-2020, 2020
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Surface-albedo measurements from 2002 to 2017 from Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rockies provide no evidence of long-term trends (i.e., the glacier does not appear to be darkening), but there are large variations in albedo over the melt season and from year to year. The glacier ice is exceptionally dark in association with forest fire fallout but is effectively cleansed by meltwater or rainfall. Summer snowfall plays an important role in refreshing the glacier surface and reducing summer melt.
Marius Schaefer, Duilio Fonseca-Gallardo, David Farías-Barahona, and Gino Casassa
The Cryosphere, 14, 2545–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2545-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2545-2020, 2020
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Chile hosts glaciers in a large range of latitudes and climates. To project future ice extent, a sound quantification of the energy exchange between atmosphere and glaciers is needed. We present new data for six Chilean glaciers belonging to three glaciological zones. In the Central Andes, the main energy source for glacier melt is the incoming solar radiation, while in southern Patagonia heat provided by the mild and humid air is also important. Total melt rates are higher in Patagonia.
Pleun N. J. Bonekamp, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Jakob F. Steiner, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 14, 1611–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1611-2020, 2020
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Drivers controlling melt of debris-covered glaciers are largely unknown. With a 3D turbulence-resolving model the impact of surface properties of debris on micrometeorological variables and the conductive heat flux is shown. Also, we show ice cliffs are local melt hot spots and that turbulent fluxes and local heat advection amplify spatial heterogeneity on the surface.This work is important for glacier mass balance modelling and for the understanding of the evolution of debris-covered glaciers.
Alexandra Giese, Aaron Boone, Patrick Wagnon, and Robert Hawley
The Cryosphere, 14, 1555–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1555-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1555-2020, 2020
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Rocky debris on glacier surfaces is known to affect the melt of mountain glaciers. Debris can be dry or filled to varying extents with liquid water and ice; whether debris is dry, wet, and/or icy affects how efficiently heat is conducted through debris from its surface to the ice interface. Our paper presents a new energy balance model that simulates moisture phase, evolution, and location in debris. ISBA-DEB is applied to West Changri Nup glacier in Nepal to reveal important physical processes.
Eleanor A. Bash and Brian J. Moorman
The Cryosphere, 14, 549–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-549-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-549-2020, 2020
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High-resolution measurements from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery allowed for examination of glacier melt model performance in detail at Fountain Glacier. This work capitalized on distributed measurements at 10 cm resolution to look at the spatial distribution of model errors in the ablation zone. Although the model agreed with measurements on average, strong correlation was found with surface water. The results highlight the contribution of surface water flow to melt at this location.
Marion Réveillet, Shelley MacDonell, Simon Gascoin, Christophe Kinnard, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole Schaffer
The Cryosphere, 14, 147–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-147-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-147-2020, 2020
Cheng Dang, Charles S. Zender, and Mark G. Flanner
The Cryosphere, 13, 2325–2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2325-2019, 2019
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