Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Mar 2022
Research article |
| 08 Mar 2022
| 08 Mar 2022
Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier
Blake A. Castleman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
School of Mechanical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Lambert Caron
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Eric Larour
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Ala Khazendar
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
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Mirko Scheinert, Weisen Shen, Richard C. Aster, Lambert Caron, Michael D. Hartinger, Matt A. King, Andrew Lloyd, Anya M. Reading, J. Paul Winberry, Terry Wilson, Lucilla Alfonsi, Michael J. Bentley, Eric Buchta, Thomas Y. Chen, Peter J. Clarke, Jörg Ebbing, Olaf Eisen, Natalya Gomez, Esra Günaydın, Samantha Hansen, Erik R. Ivins, Achraf Koulali, Grace A. Nield, Frederick Richards, Mahmut O. Selbesoglu, Stephanie Sherman, Pippa L. Whitehouse, and Matthias Willen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6370, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Solid Earth (SE).
Short summary
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With an ongoing mass loss the Antarctic Ice Sheet contributes to global-mean sea level rise at a rate of 0.4 mm/a. Thus, it plays a key role in global climate and provides a natural laboratory to study processes that interlink cryosphere, solid Earth, atmosphere and ocean. We discuss how GNSS and seismic networks in Antarctica were used to significantly advance our understanding of these processes, and how they should be maintained and extended to answer key science questions in the future.
Andreas Colliander, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Alamgir Hossan, Catherine Walker, and Joel Harper
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5953, 2026
Short summary
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We studied how melting on an Antarctic ice shelf changes the snow and ice below the surface. By combining satellite microwave measurements with a detailed computer model, we show that meltwater can travel deeper and stay longer than models usually predict. This approach makes it possible to better track hidden melt and improve future estimates of ice loss and sea-level change.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Lauren Andrews, Jana Kolassa, Julie Z. Miller, and Richard Cullather
The Cryosphere, 19, 6077–6102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6077-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6077-2025, 2025
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Microwave L-band radiometry offers a promising new tool for estimating the total surface-to-subsurface liquid water amount (LWA) in the snow and firn in polar ice sheets. An accurate modelling of wet snow effective permittivity is a key to this. Here, we evaluated the performance of ten commonly used microwave dielectric mixing models for estimating LWA in the percolation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet to help an appropriate choice of dielectric mixing model for LWA retrieval algorithms.
Luc Houriez, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Surendra Adhikari, Erik Ivins, Tyler Pelle, Hélène Seroussi, Eric Darve, and Martin Fischer
The Cryosphere, 19, 4355–4372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4355-2025, 2025
Short summary
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This work examines how interactions between the ice sheet and the Earth’s evolving surface affect the future of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. We find that small features in the bedrock play a major role in these interactions which can delay the glacier’s retreat by decades or even centuries. This can significantly reduce sea-level rise projections. Our study highlights resolution requirements for similar ice–earth models and the importance of bedrock mapping efforts in Antarctica.
Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Joel Harper, Shawn Marshall, and Julie Z. Miller
The Cryosphere, 19, 4237–4258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4237-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4237-2025, 2025
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We used L-band observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to quantify the surface and subsurface liquid water amounts (LWAs) in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. The algorithm is described, and the validation results are provided. The results demonstrate the potential for creating an LWA data product across the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), which will advance our understanding of ice sheet physical processes for better projection of Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise.
Surendra Adhikari, Lambert Caron, Holly K. Han, Luc Houriez, Eric Larour, and Erik Ivins
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3561, 2025
Short summary
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We present an efficient way of coupling ice sheet and solid Earth models, targeting ice sheet modelers with little knowledge of and interest in glacial isostatic adjustment processes. We distill solid Earth response signals into "Green's functions," which can be convolved with the spatiotemporal pattern of modeled ice mass change using simple matrix multiplication. The manuscript is timely and encourages greater participation with coupled ice/Earth simulations in the ongoing ISMIP effort.
Lambert Caron, Erik Ivins, Eric Larour, Surendra Adhikari, and Laurent Metivier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3414, 2025
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Presented here is a new model of the solid-Earth response to tides and mass changes in ice sheets, oceans, and groundwater, in of terms of gravity change and bedrock motion. The model is capable simulating mantle deformation including elasticity, transient and steady-state viscous flow. We detail our approach to numerical optimization, and report the accuracy of results with respect to community benchmarks. The resulting coupled system features kilometer-scale resolution and fast computation.
Youngmin Choi, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Alex Gardner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5499–5517, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5499-2023, 2023
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Ice sheet models are often initialized using snapshot observations of present-day conditions, but this approach has limitations in capturing the transient evolution of the system. To more accurately represent the accelerating changes in glaciers, we employed time-dependent data assimilation. We found that models calibrated with the transient data better capture past trends and more accurately reproduce changes after the calibration period, even with limited observations.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Fernando S. Paolo, Alex S. Gardner, Chad A. Greene, Johan Nilsson, Michael P. Schodlok, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Helen A. Fricker
The Cryosphere, 17, 3409–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3409-2023, 2023
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We report on a slowdown in the rate of thinning and melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. We present a comprehensive assessment of the Antarctic ice shelves, where we analyze at a continental scale the changes in thickness, flow, and basal melt over the past 26 years. We also present a novel method to estimate ice shelf change from satellite altimetry and a time-dependent data set of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates at an unprecedented resolution.
Mattia Poinelli, Michael Schodlok, Eric Larour, Miren Vizcaino, and Riccardo Riva
The Cryosphere, 17, 2261–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, 2023
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Rifts are fractures on ice shelves that connect the ice on top to the ocean below. The impact of rifts on ocean circulation below Antarctic ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve the presence of rifts. Our model simulations show that a kilometer-wide rift near the ice-shelf front modulates heat intrusion beneath the ice and inhibits basal melt. These processes are therefore worthy of further investigation.
Alex S. Gardner, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2277–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2277-2023, 2023
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This is the first description of the open-source Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model. GEMB models the ice sheet and glacier surface–atmospheric energy and mass exchange, as well as the firn state. The model is evaluated against the current state of the art and in situ observations and is shown to perform well.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Kevin Bulthuis and Eric Larour
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1195–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022, 2022
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We present and implement a stochastic solver to sample spatially and temporal varying uncertain input parameters in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, such as ice thickness or surface mass balance. We represent these sources of uncertainty using Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function. We generate random samples of this random field using an efficient computational approach based on solving a stochastic partial differential equation.
Daniel Cheng, Wayne Hayes, Eric Larour, Yara Mohajerani, Michael Wood, Isabella Velicogna, and Eric Rignot
The Cryosphere, 15, 1663–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1663-2021, 2021
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Tracking changes in Greenland's glaciers is important for understanding Earth's climate, but it is time consuming to do so by hand. We train a program, called CALFIN, to automatically track these changes with human levels of accuracy. CALFIN is a special type of program called a neural network. This method can be applied to other glaciers and eventually other tracking tasks. This will enhance our understanding of the Greenland Ice Sheet and permit better models of Earth's climate.
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Short summary
In the described study, we derive an uncertainty range for global mean sea level rise (SLR) contribution from Thwaites Glacier in a 200-year period under an extreme ocean warming scenario. We derive the spatial and vertical resolutions needed for bedrock data acquisition missions in order to limit global mean SLR contribution from Thwaites Glacier to ±2 cm in a 200-year period. We conduct sensitivity experiments in order to present the locations of critical regions in need of accurate mapping.
In the described study, we derive an uncertainty range for global mean sea level rise (SLR)...
