We examined how winter rain falling on snow may change across northwestern Eurasia as the climate warms. Using projections from nine climate models, we found more winter precipitation and a larger portion falling as rain. Rain-on-snow events become less concentrated in spring and occur over more of the winter, while some southern areas lose spring events as snow cover becomes less persistent. These changes could affect snow conditions, reindeer herding, ecosystems, transport and infrastructure.

The Arctic is warming rapidly, threatening to release vast carbon stores from frozen soils. Climate models consistently misrepresent Arctic snow, causing soils to appear artificially cold. We used a random forest model to better predict winter snow density and fed these improved estimates into a widely used climate model which raised projected soil temperatures by up to 7 °C, suggesting current forecasts of soil temperature and carbon release are likely underestimated.