the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice volume: Causes and consequences
Abstract. The drastic reduction of the Arctic sea ice over the past 40 years is the most glaring evidence of climate change on Planet Earth. Among all the variables characterizing sea ice, the sea ice volume is by far the most sensitive one for climate change since it is decaying at the highest rate compared to sea ice extent and sea ice thickness. In 40 years the Arctic Ocean has lost about 3/4 of its sea ice volume at the end of the summer season corresponding to a reduction of both sea ice extent and sea ice thickness by half on average. From more than 16 000 km3, 40 years ago, the Arctic sea ice summer minimum dropped down to less than 4000 km3 during the most recent summers. Being a combination of Arctic sea ice extent and sea ice thickness, the Arctic sea ice volume is difficult to observe directly and accurately. We estimated cumulative Freezing-Degree Days (FDD) over a 9 month freezing time period (September to May each year) based on ERA Interim surface air temperature reanalysis over the whole Arctic Ocean and for the past 38 years. Then we compared the Arctic sea ice volume based on sea ice thickness deduced from cumulative FDD with Arctic sea ice volume estimated from PIOMAS (Pan Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System) and from the ESA CRYOSAT-2 satellite. The results are strikingly similar. The warming of the atmosphere is playing an important role in contributing to the Arctic sea ice volume decrease during the whole freezing season (September to May). In addition, the FDD spatial distribution exhibiting a sharp double peak-like feature is reflecting the Multi Y ear Ice (MYI) versus First Year Ice (FYI) dual disposition typical of the Arctic sea ice cover. This is indicative of a significant contribution from the vertical ocean heat fluxes throughout the ice depending on MYI versus FYI distribution and the snow layer on top of it influencing the surface air temperature accordingly. In 2018 the Arctic MYI vanished almost completely for the first time ever over the past 40 years. The quasi complete disappearance of the Arctic sea ice is more likely to happen in summer within the next 15 years with broad consequences for Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems, climate and weather patterns on a planetary scale and globally on human activities.
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SC1: 'Mathematical Consequences', Thomas Zehetbauer, 16 Jan 2019
- SC2: 'Arctic sea ice loss compared to Greenland ice loss', Jean Claude Gascard, 16 Jan 2019
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SC3: 'Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet', Jean Claude Gascard, 20 Jan 2019
- SC4: 'ARctic sea ice and Glaciers', Jean Claude Gascard, 22 Jan 2019
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RC1: 'Review of "Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice volume: Causes and consequences" by Jean-Claude Gascard et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Feb 2019
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AC1: 'response from all the co authors to the anonymous reviewer', Jean Claude Gascard, 21 Feb 2019
- AC2: 'FDD and PIOMAS sea ice volume correlation', Jean Claude Gascard, 02 Mar 2019
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AC1: 'response from all the co authors to the anonymous reviewer', Jean Claude Gascard, 21 Feb 2019
-
RC2: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2019
- AC3: 'response from the co authors to the anonymous referee 2', Jean Claude Gascard, 26 Mar 2019
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SC1: 'Mathematical Consequences', Thomas Zehetbauer, 16 Jan 2019
- SC2: 'Arctic sea ice loss compared to Greenland ice loss', Jean Claude Gascard, 16 Jan 2019
-
SC3: 'Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet', Jean Claude Gascard, 20 Jan 2019
- SC4: 'ARctic sea ice and Glaciers', Jean Claude Gascard, 22 Jan 2019
-
RC1: 'Review of "Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice volume: Causes and consequences" by Jean-Claude Gascard et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Feb 2019
-
AC1: 'response from all the co authors to the anonymous reviewer', Jean Claude Gascard, 21 Feb 2019
- AC2: 'FDD and PIOMAS sea ice volume correlation', Jean Claude Gascard, 02 Mar 2019
-
AC1: 'response from all the co authors to the anonymous reviewer', Jean Claude Gascard, 21 Feb 2019
-
RC2: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2019
- AC3: 'response from the co authors to the anonymous referee 2', Jean Claude Gascard, 26 Mar 2019
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Cited
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dramatic decline of Arctic sea ice linked to global warming J. Yadav et al. 10.1007/s11069-020-04064-y
- Role of atmospheric heat fluxes and ocean advection on decadal (2000–2019) change of sea-ice in the Arctic A. Mukherjee & M. Ravichandran 10.1007/s00382-022-06531-7
- Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 T. Tian et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021
- Quantifying the Potential for Snow‐Ice Formation in the Arctic Ocean I. Merkouriadi et al. 10.1029/2019GL085020
- The North Pacific Diatom Species Neodenticula seminae in the Modern and Holocene Sediments of the North Atlantic and Arctic A. Matul & G. Kazarina 10.3390/geosciences10050173
- Evaluation of Sea Ice Concentration Data Using Dual-Polarized Ratio Algorithm in Comparison With Other Satellite Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Sets and Ship-Based Visual Observations F. Zong et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2022.856289
- Observational evaluation of global climate model simulations of arctic sea ice and adjacent land pertaining to the radiative effects of frozen hydrometeors J. Li et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ac556b
- Reducing Parametrization Errors for Polar Surface Turbulent Fluxes Using Machine Learning D. Cummins et al. 10.1007/s10546-023-00852-8
- Surface Turbulent Fluxes From the MOSAiC Campaign Predicted by Machine Learning D. Cummins et al. 10.1029/2023GL105698