Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 09 Oct 2020
| 09 Oct 2020
Impact of coastal East Antarctic ice rises on surface mass balance: insights from observations and modeling
Department of Geoscience & Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 5, 2628 CD Delft, the Netherlands
Stef Lhermitte
Department of Geoscience & Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 5, 2628 CD Delft, the Netherlands
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Dr., Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Nander Wever
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Dr., Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Mana Inoue
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
Sarah Wauthy
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
Jean-Louis Tison
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
Willem Jan van de Berg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Preprint archived
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 17, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1675-2023, 2023
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Firn is the transition of snow to glacier ice and covers 99 % of the Antarctic ice sheet. Knowledge about the firn layer and its variability is important, as it impacts satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. Also, firn contains pores in which nearly all of the surface melt is retained. Here, we improve a semi-empirical firn model and simulate the firn characteristics for the period 1979–2020. We evaluate the performance with field and satellite measures and test its sensitivity.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
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The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
Nicole Clerx, Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Nicolas Jullien, Nander Wever, Rolf Weingartner, and Ole Roessler
The Cryosphere, 16, 4379–4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4379-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4379-2022, 2022
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Meltwater runoff is one of the main contributors to mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet that influences global sea level rise. However, it remains unclear where meltwater runs off and what processes cause this. We measured the velocity of meltwater flow through snow on the ice sheet, which ranged from 0.17–12.8 m h−1 for vertical percolation and from 1.3–15.1 m h−1 for lateral flow. This is an important step towards understanding where, when and why meltwater runoff occurs on the ice sheet.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
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Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Lena G. Buth, Bert Wouters, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2022-127, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Liquid meltwater which is stored in air bubbles in the compacted snow near the surface of Antarctica can affect ice shelf stability. In order to detect the presence of such firn aquifers over large scales, satellite remote sensing is needed. In this paper, we present our new detection method using radar satellite data as well as the results for the whole Antarctic Peninsula. Firn aquifers are found in the north and northwest of the peninsula, in agreement with locations predicted by models.
Max Brils, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7121–7138, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7121-2022, 2022
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Firn covers the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and can temporarily prevent mass loss. Here, we present the latest version of our firn model, IMAU-FDM, with an application to the GrIS. We improved the density of fallen snow, the firn densification rate and the firn's thermal conductivity. This leads to a higher air content and 10 m temperatures. Furthermore we investigate three case studies and find that the updated model shows greater variability and an increased sensitivity in surface elevation.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Weiran Li, Cornelis Slobbe, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 16, 2225–2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2225-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2225-2022, 2022
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This study proposes a new method for correcting the slope-induced errors in satellite radar altimetry. The slope-induced errors can significantly affect the height estimations of ice sheets if left uncorrected. This study applies the method to radar altimetry data (CryoSat-2) and compares the performance with two existing methods. The performance is assessed by comparison with independent height measurements from ICESat-2. The assessment shows that the method performs promisingly.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 16, 1071–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1071-2022, 2022
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In this study, we improve the regional climate model RACMO2 and investigate the climate of Antarctica. We have implemented a new radiative transfer and snow albedo scheme and do several sensitivity experiments. When fully tuned, the results compare well with observations and snow temperature profiles improve. Moreover, small changes in the albedo and the investigated processes can lead to a strong overestimation of melt, locally leading to runoff and a reduced surface mass balance.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
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This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Zhongyang Hu, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Stef Lhermitte, Maaike Izeboud, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 5639–5658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5639-2021, 2021
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Antarctica is shrinking, and part of the mass loss is caused by higher temperatures leading to more snowmelt. We use computer models to estimate the amount of melt, but this can be inaccurate – specifically in the areas with the most melt. This is because the model cannot account for small, darker areas like rocks or darker ice. Thus, we trained a computer using artificial intelligence and satellite images that showed these darker areas. The model computed an improved estimate of melt.
Weiran Li, Stef Lhermitte, and Paco López-Dekker
The Cryosphere, 15, 5309–5322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5309-2021, 2021
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Surface meltwater lakes have been observed on several Antarctic ice shelves in field studies and optical images. Meltwater lakes can drain and refreeze, increasing the fragility of the ice shelves. The combination of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter and interferometric information (InSAR) can provide the cryosphere community with the possibility to continuously assess the dynamics of the meltwater lakes, potentially helping to facilitate the study of ice shelves in a changing climate.
Karen E. Alley, Christian T. Wild, Adrian Luckman, Ted A. Scambos, Martin Truffer, Erin C. Pettit, Atsuhiro Muto, Bruce Wallin, Marin Klinger, Tyler Sutterley, Sarah F. Child, Cyrus Hulen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Michelle Maclennan, Eric Keenan, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 15, 5187–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, 2021
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We present a 20-year, satellite-based record of velocity and thickness change on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the largest remaining floating extension of Thwaites Glacier (TG). TG holds the single greatest control on sea-level rise over the next few centuries, so it is important to understand changes on the TEIS, which controls much of TG's flow into the ocean. Our results suggest that the TEIS is progressively destabilizing and is likely to disintegrate over the next few decades.
Annelies Voordendag, Marion Réveillet, Shelley MacDonell, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 15, 4241–4259, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4241-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4241-2021, 2021
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The sensitivity of two snow models (SNOWPACK and SnowModel) to various parameterizations and atmospheric forcing biases is assessed in the semi-arid Andes of Chile in winter 2017. Models show that sublimation is a main driver of ablation and that its relative contribution to total ablation is highly sensitive to the selected albedo parameterization and snow roughness length. The forcing and parameterizations are more important than the model choice, despite differences in physical complexity.
Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, J. Melchior van Wessem, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Fredrik Boberg, Willem Jan van de Berg, Xavier Fettweis, Alexandra Gossart, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Stuart Webster, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Niels Souverijns
The Cryosphere, 15, 3751–3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3751-2021, 2021
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We compare the calculated surface mass budget (SMB) of Antarctica in five different regional climate models. On average ~ 2000 Gt of snow accumulates annually, but different models vary by ~ 10 %, a difference equivalent to ± 0.5 mm of global sea level rise. All models reproduce observed weather, but there are large differences in regional patterns of snowfall, especially in areas with very few observations, giving greater uncertainty in Antarctic mass budget than previously identified.
Madison L. Ghiz, Ryan C. Scott, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Matthew Lazzara, and Dan Lubin
The Cryosphere, 15, 3459–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, 2021
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We investigate how melt occurs over the vulnerable ice shelves of West Antarctica and determine that the three primary mechanisms can be evaluated using archived numerical weather prediction model data and satellite imagery. We find examples of each mechanism: thermal blanketing by a warm atmosphere, radiative heating by thin clouds, and downslope winds. Our results signify the potential to make a multi-decadal assessment of atmospheric stress on West Antarctic ice shelves in a warming climate.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
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Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Diana Francis, Kyle S. Mattingly, Stef Lhermitte, Marouane Temimi, and Petra Heil
The Cryosphere, 15, 2147–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2147-2021, 2021
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The unexpected September 2019 calving event from the Amery Ice Shelf, the largest since 1963 and which occurred almost a decade earlier than expected, was triggered by atmospheric extremes. Explosive twin polar cyclones provided a deterministic role in this event by creating oceanward sea surface slope triggering the calving. The observed record-anomalous atmospheric conditions were promoted by blocking ridges and Antarctic-wide anomalous poleward transport of heat and moisture.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
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Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Marissa Dattler, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brooke Medley, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 15, 1065–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, 2021
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Snow density is required to convert observed changes in ice sheet volume into mass, which ultimately drives ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. However, snow properties respond dynamically to wind-driven redistribution. Here we include a new wind-driven snow density scheme into an existing snow model. Our results demonstrate an improved representation of snow density when compared to observations and can therefore be used to improve retrievals of ice sheet mass balance.
J. Melchior van Wessem, Christian R. Steger, Nander Wever, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 695–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-695-2021, 2021
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This study presents the first modelled estimates of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) in Antarctica. PFAs are subsurface meltwater bodies that do not refreeze in winter due to the isolating effects of the snow they are buried underneath. They were first identified in Greenland, but conditions for their existence are also present in the Antarctic Peninsula. These PFAs can have important effects on meltwater retention, ice shelf stability, and, consequently, sea level rise.
Tessa Gorte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 14, 4719–4733, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, 2020
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In this paper, we analyze several spatial and temporal criteria to assess the ability of models in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks to recreate past Antarctic surface mass balance. We then compared a subset of the top performing models to all remaining models to refine future surface mass balance predictions under different forcing scenarios. We found that the top performing models predict lower surface mass balance by 2100, indicating less buffering than otherwise expected of sea level rise.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
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Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Stef Lhermitte, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3645–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, 2020
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The reflectivity of sunlight, which is also known as albedo, is often inadequately modeled in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new snow and ice albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2. In this study, we evaluate a new RACMO2 version for the Greenland ice sheet by using observations and the previous model version. RACMO2 output compares well with observations, and by including new processes we improve the ability of RACMO2 to make future climate projections.
Louis Quéno, Charles Fierz, Alec van Herwijnen, Dylan Longridge, and Nander Wever
The Cryosphere, 14, 3449–3464, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3449-2020, 2020
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Deep ice layers may form in the snowpack due to preferential water flow with impacts on the snowpack mechanical, hydrological and thermodynamical properties. We studied their formation and evolution at a high-altitude alpine site, combining a comprehensive observation dataset at a daily frequency (with traditional snowpack observations, penetration resistance and radar measurements) and detailed snowpack modeling, including a new parameterization of ice formation in the 1-D SNOWPACK model.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Jan T. M. Lenaerts, M. Drew Camron, Christopher R. Wyburn-Powell, and Jennifer E. Kay
The Cryosphere, 14, 2253–2265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, 2020
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
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This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Lambertus H. van Ulft
The Cryosphere, 14, 1809–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1809-2020, 2020
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In times of increasing computer power, atmospheric models that estimate the surface mass balance of the Greenland can be run with increasing resolution. However, at which resolution is the error no longer determined by the lacking resolution but by model shortcomings? In this manuscript we show that for the majority of the southern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet, our study area, a model resolution of 20 km is sufficient although finer model resolutions are still beneficial.
Brice Noël, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Willem Jan van de Berg, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Bert Wouters, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1425–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, 2020
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We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2; ~111 km) to force a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ~11 km), which is further refined to 1 km spatial resolution. For the first time, an Earth-system-model-based product, assimilating no observations, can reconstruct realistic historical ice sheet surface mass balance as well as the mass loss acceleration that started in the 1990s.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
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In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hailong Wang, Jeremy G. Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jesse M. Nusbaumer, Hansi Singh, David Noone, Philip J. Rasch, and Rudong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, 2020
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Using a climate model with unique water source tagging, we found that sea-ice anomalies in the Southern Ocean and accompanying SST changes have a significant influence on Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution through their direct impact on moisture sources and indirect impact on moisture transport. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation.
Marion Réveillet, Shelley MacDonell, Simon Gascoin, Christophe Kinnard, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole Schaffer
The Cryosphere, 14, 147–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-147-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-147-2020, 2020
Nander Wever, Leonard Rossmann, Nina Maaß, Katherine C. Leonard, Lars Kaleschke, Marcel Nicolaus, and Michael Lehning
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 99–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-99-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-99-2020, 2020
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Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The presence of a snow layer covering sea ice can impact ice mass and energy budgets. The detailed, physics-based, multi-layer snow model SNOWPACK was modified to simulate the snow–sea-ice system, providing simulations of the snow microstructure, water percolation and flooding, and superimposed ice formation. The model is applied to in situ measurements from snow and ice mass-balance buoys installed in the Antarctic Weddell Sea.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Quentin Libois, Ghislain Picard, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5157–5175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5157-2019, 2019
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Climate models are often limited to relatively simple snow albedo schemes. Therefore, we have developed the SNOWBAL module to couple a climate model with a physically based wavelength dependent snow albedo model. Using SNOWBAL v1.2 to couple the snow albedo model TARTES with the regional climate model RACMO2 indicates a potential performance gain for the Greenland ice sheet.
Raymond Sellevold, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brice Noël, William H. Lipscomb, and Miren Vizcaino
The Cryosphere, 13, 3193–3208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019, 2019
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We evaluate a downscaling method to calculate ice sheet surface mass balance with global climate models, despite their coarse resolution. We compare it with high-resolution climate modeling. Despite absence of fine-scale simulation of individual energy and mass contributors, the method provides realistic vertical SMB gradients that can be used in forcing of ice sheet models, e.g., for sea level projections. Also, the climate model simulation is improved with the method implemented interactively.
Xiaoran Guo, Liyun Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Sainan Sun, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 13, 3139–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, 2019
Cécile B. Ménard, Richard Essery, Alan Barr, Paul Bartlett, Jeff Derry, Marie Dumont, Charles Fierz, Hyungjun Kim, Anna Kontu, Yves Lejeune, Danny Marks, Masashi Niwano, Mark Raleigh, Libo Wang, and Nander Wever
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 865–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-865-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-865-2019, 2019
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This paper describes long-term meteorological and evaluation datasets from 10 reference sites for use in snow modelling. We demonstrate how data sharing is crucial to the identification of errors and how the publication of these datasets contributes to good practice, consistency, and reproducibility in geosciences. The ease of use, availability, and quality of the datasets will help model developers quantify and reduce model uncertainties and errors.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
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A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Kevin Bulthuis, Maarten Arnst, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019, 2019
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Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.
Alexandra Gossart, Stephen P. Palm, Niels Souverijns, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Blowing snow measurements are scarce, both in time and space over the Antarctic ice sheet. We compare here CALIPSO satellite blowing snow measurements, to ground-base remote sensing ceilometer retrievals at two coastal stations in East Antarctica. Results indicate that 95 % of the blowing snow occurs under cloudy conditions, and are missed by the satellite. In addition, difficulties arise if comparing point locations to satellite overpasses.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
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Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Niels Souverijns, Alexandra Gossart, Stef Lhermitte, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Jacopo Grazioli, Alexis Berne, Claudio Duran-Alarcon, Brice Boudevillain, Christophe Genthon, Claudio Scarchilli, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 12, 3775–3789, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3775-2018, 2018
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Snowfall observations over Antarctica are scarce and currently limited to information from the CloudSat satellite. Here, a first evaluation of the CloudSat snowfall record is performed using observations of ground-based precipitation radars. Results indicate an accurate representation of the snowfall climatology over Antarctica, despite the low overpass frequency of the satellite, outperforming state-of-the-art model estimates. Individual snowfall events are however not well represented.
Christian Gabriel Sommer, Nander Wever, Charles Fierz, and Michael Lehning
The Cryosphere, 12, 2923–2939, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2923-2018, 2018
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Wind packing is how wind produces hard crusts at the surface of the snowpack. This is relevant for the local mass balance in polar regions. However, not much is known about this process and it is difficult to capture its high spatial and temporal variability. A wind-packing event was measured in Antarctica. It could be quantified how drifting snow leads to wind packing and generates barchan dunes. The documentation of these deposition dynamics is an important step in understanding polar snow.
Brice Van Liefferinge, Frank Pattyn, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Nanna B. Karlsson, Duncan A. Young, Johannes Sutter, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 2773–2787, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2773-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2773-2018, 2018
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Our paper provides an important review of the state of knowledge for oldest-ice prospection, but also adds new basal geothermal heat flux constraints from recently acquired high-definition radar data sets. This is the first paper to contrast the two primary target regions for oldest ice: Dome C and Dome Fuji. Moreover, we provide statistical comparisons of all available data sets and a summary of the community's criteria for the retrieval of interpretable oldest ice since the 2013 effort.
Nanna B. Karlsson, Tobias Binder, Graeme Eagles, Veit Helm, Frank Pattyn, Brice Van Liefferinge, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 12, 2413–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2413-2018, 2018
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In this study, we investigate the probability that the Dome Fuji region in East Antarctica contains ice more than 1.5 Ma old. The retrieval of a continuous ice-core record extending beyond 1 Ma is imperative to understand why the frequency of ice ages changed from 40 to 100 ka approximately 1 Ma ago.
We use a new radar dataset to improve the ice thickness maps, and apply a thermokinematic model to predict basal temperature and age of the ice. Our results indicate several areas of interest.
Niels Souverijns, Alexandra Gossart, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, Alexander Mangold, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 12, 1987–2003, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1987-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1987-2018, 2018
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This work is the first to gain insight into the local surface mass balance over Antarctica using accurate long-term snowfall observations. A non-linear relationship between accumulation and snowfall is discovered, indicating that total surface mass balance measurements are not a good proxy for snowfall over Antarctica. Furthermore, the meteorological drivers causing changes in the local SMB are identified.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Alexandra Gossart, Niels Souverijns, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan H. Schween, Alexander Mangold, Quentin Laffineur, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 11, 2755–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, 2017
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Blowing snow plays an important role on local surface mass balance of Antarctica. We present here the blowing snow detection algorithm, to retrieve blowing snow occurrence from the attenuated backscatter signal of ceilometers set up at two station. There is a good correspondence in detection of heavy blowing snow by the algorithm and the visual observations performed at Neumayer station. Moreover, most of the blowing snow occurs during events bringing precipitation from the coast inland.
Sophie Berger, Reinhard Drews, Veit Helm, Sainan Sun, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 11, 2675–2690, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2675-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2675-2017, 2017
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Floating ice shelves act as a plug for the Antarctic ice sheet. The efficiency of this ice plug depends on how and how much the ocean melts the ice from below. This study relies on satellite imagery and a Lagrangian approach to map in detail the basal mass balance of an Antarctic ice shelf. Although the large-scale melting pattern of the ice shelf agrees with previous studies, our technique successfully detects local variability (< 1 km) in the basal melting of the ice shelf.
Jeremy Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Hailong Wang
The Cryosphere, 11, 2595–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, 2017
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In this CESM modeling study, we uncover regional relationships in snowfall across Antarctica that are corroborated by regional modeling and ice core records. These relationships are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport and dampen overall Antarctic snowfall variability, with implications for Antarctic-sourced sea level variability and detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
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Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Sainan Sun, Stephen L. Cornford, John C. Moore, Rupert Gladstone, and Liyun Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 2543–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, 2017
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The buttressing effect of the floating ice shelves is diminished by the fracture process. We developed a continuum damage mechanics model component of the ice sheet model to simulate the process. The model is tested on an ideal marine ice sheet geometry. We find that behavior of the simulated marine ice sheet is sensitive to fracture processes on the ice shelf, and the stiffness of ice around the grounding line is essential to ice sheet evolution.
Goulven G. Laruelle, Peter Landschützer, Nicolas Gruber, Jean-Louis Tison, Bruno Delille, and Pierre Regnier
Biogeosciences, 14, 4545–4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4545-2017, 2017
Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 11, 1851–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1851-2017, 2017
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Marine Ice Sheet Instability is a mechanism that can potentially lead to collapse of marine sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet and floating ice shelves play a crucial role herein. Improved grounding line physics (interaction with subglacial sediment) are implemented in a new ice-sheet model and compared to traditional sliding laws. Ice shelf collapse leads to a significant higher sea-level contribution (up to 15 m in 500 years) compared to traditional grounding-line approaches.
Mana Inoue, Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy, Tas D. van Ommen, Alexander D. Fraser, Helen E. Phillips, and Ian D. Goodwin
Clim. Past, 13, 437–453, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-437-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-437-2017, 2017
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A 120 m ice core from Mill Island, East Antarctica, was studied its chemical components. The Mill Island ice core contains 97 years of climate record (1913–2009) and has a mean snow accumulation of 1.35 m yr−1 (ice equivalent). Trace ion concentrations were generally higher than other Antarctic ice core sites. Nearby sea ice concentration was found to influence the annual mean sea salt record. The Mill Island ice core records are unexpectedly complex, with strong modulation of the trace chemistry.
Célia J. Sapart, Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Joachim Jansen, Sönke Szidat, Denis Kosmach, Oleg Dudarev, Carina van der Veen, Matthias Egger, Valentine Sergienko, Anatoly Salyuk, Vladimir Tumskoy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Thomas Röckmann
Biogeosciences, 14, 2283–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2283-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2283-2017, 2017
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The Arctic Ocean, especially the Siberian shelves, overlays large areas of subsea permafrost that is degrading. We show that methane with a biogenic origin is emitted from this permafrost. At locations where bubble plumes have been observed, methane can escape oxidation in the surface sediment and rapidly migrate through the very shallow water column of this region to escape to the atmosphere, generating a positive radiative feedback.
Sebastian Würzer, Nander Wever, Roman Juras, Michael Lehning, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1741–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1741-2017, 2017
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We discuss a dual-domain water transport model in a physics-based snowpack model to account for preferential flow (PF) in addition to matrix flow. So far no operationally used snow model has explicitly accounted for PF. The new approach is compared to existing water transport models and validated against in situ data from sprinkling and natural rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Our work demonstrates the benefit of considering PF in modelling hourly snowpack runoff, especially during ROS conditions.
Harry Zekollari, Philippe Huybrechts, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 805–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, 2017
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In this study the dynamics of the world’s northernmost ice cap are investigated with a 3-D ice flow model. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions
an ice cap similar to the observed one is obtained, with comparable geometry and surface velocities. The southern part of the ice cap is very unstable,
and under early-21st-century climatic conditions this part of the ice cap fully disappears. In a projected warmer and wetter climate the ice cap will at
first steepen, before eventually disappearing.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
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Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Lionel Favier, Frank Pattyn, Sophie Berger, and Reinhard Drews
The Cryosphere, 10, 2623–2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016, 2016
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We demonstrate the short-term unstable retreat of an East Antarctic outlet glacier triggered by imposed sub-ice-shelf melt, compliant with current values, using a state-of-the-art ice-sheet model. We show that pinning points – topographic highs in contact with the ice-shelf base – have a major impact on ice-sheet stability and timing of grounding-line retreat. The study therefore calls for improving our knowledge of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry in order to reduce uncertainties in future ice loss.
Morgane Philippe, Jean-Louis Tison, Karen Fjøsne, Bryn Hubbard, Helle A. Kjær, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Reinhard Drews, Simon G. Sheldon, Kevin De Bondt, Philippe Claeys, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 10, 2501–2516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2501-2016, 2016
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The reconstruction of past snow accumulation rates is crucial in the context of recent climate change and sea level rise. We measured ~ 250 years of snow accumulation using a 120 m ice core drilled in coastal East Antarctica, where such long records are very scarce. This study is the first to show an increase in snow accumulation, beginning in the 20th and particularly marked in the last 50 years, thereby confirming model predictions of increased snowfall associated with climate change.
Kristof Van Tricht, Stef Lhermitte, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 10, 2379–2397, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2379-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2379-2016, 2016
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Despite the crucial role of polar regions in the global climate system, the limited availability of observations on the ground hampers a detailed understanding of their energy budget. Here we develop a method to use satellites to fill these observational gaps. We show that by sampling satellite observations in a smart way, coverage is greatly enhanced. We conclude that this method might help improve our understanding of the polar energy budget, and ultimately its effects on the global climate.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Horst Machguth, Stef Lhermitte, Ian Howat, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 2361–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016
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We present a 1 km resolution data set (1958–2015) of daily Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), statistically downscaled from the data of RACMO2.3 at 11 km using elevation dependence, precipitation and bare ice albedo corrections. The data set resolves Greenland narrow ablation zones and local outlet glaciers, and shows more realistic SMB patterns, owing to enhanced runoff at the ice sheet margins. An evaluation of the product against SMB measurements shows improved agreement.
Paul Hublart, Denis Ruelland, Inaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Simon Gascoin, Stef Lhermitte, and Antonio Ibacache
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3691–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, 2016
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Our paper explores the reliability of conceptual catchment models in the dry Andes. First, we show that explicitly accounting for irrigation water use improves streamflow predictions during dry years. Second, we show that sublimation losses can be easily incorporated into temperature-based melt models without increasing model complexity too much. Our work also highlights areas requiring additional research, including the need for a better conceptualization of runoff generation processes.
Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Ian M. Howat, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016
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We present recent (1958–2015) mass balance time series for the Greenland ice sheet. We show that recent mass loss is caused by a combination of increased surface meltwater runoff and solid ice discharge. Most meltwater above 2000 m a.s.l. refreezes in the cold firn and does not leave the ice sheet, but this goes at the expense of firn heating and densifying. In spite of a temporary rebound in 2013, it appears that the ice sheet remains in a state of persistent mass loss.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
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Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
Odile Crabeck, Ryan Galley, Bruno Delille, Brent Else, Nicolas-Xavier Geilfus, Marcos Lemes, Mathieu Des Roches, Pierre Francus, Jean-Louis Tison, and Søren Rysgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 1125–1145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1125-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1125-2016, 2016
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We present a new non-destructive X-ray-computed tomography technique to quantify the air volume fraction and produce separate 3-D images of air-volume inclusions in sea ice. While the internal layers showed air-volume fractions < 2 %, the ice–air interface (top 2 cm) showed values up to 5 %. As a result of the presence of large bubbles and higher air volume fraction measurements in sea ice, we introduce new perspectives on processes regulating gas exchange at the ice–atmosphere interface.
Reinhard Drews, Joel Brown, Kenichi Matsuoka, Emmanuel Witrant, Morgane Philippe, Bryn Hubbard, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 10, 811–823, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-811-2016, 2016
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The thickness of ice shelves is typically inferred using hydrostatic equilibrium which requires knowledge of the firn density. Here, we infer density from wide-angle radar using a novel algorithm including traveltime inversion and ray tracing. We find that firn is denser inside a 2 km wide ice-shelf channel which is confirmed by optical televiewing of two boreholes. Such horizontal density variations must be accounted for when using the hydrostatic ice thickness for determining basal melt rate.
Thomas Goossens, Célia J. Sapart, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Trevor Popp, Saïda El Amri, and Jean-Louis Tison
The Cryosphere, 10, 553–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-553-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-553-2016, 2016
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This first multi-parametric analysis of the basal ice layer of the NEEM ice core reveals that its formation does not result from a mixing process between local relict ice and the deepest ice layers of the advancing ice sheet during its growth phase. Instead, it is shown that the basal sequence partly originates from melting and refreezing processes acting at the ice/bedrock interface under a well-developed ice sheet. These have partially destroyed the paleoclimatic records of the ice.
Willem Jan van de Berg and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 10, 459–463, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-459-2016, 2016
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Regional climate models improve the spatial surface mass balance (SMB) patterns in Antarctica compared to reanalyses, but they deteriorate the representation of interannual variability in SMB. Hence, we implemented additional nudging in our regional climate model RACMO2. Using annual SMB observations of the Twaites drainage basin, Antarctica, we show that this nudging vastly improves the representation of interannual variability without significant deterioration of the modelled mean SMB fields.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
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This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
G. Durand and F. Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 9, 2043–2055, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015, 2015
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Projections of Antarctic dynamics and contribution to sea-level rise are evaluated in the light of intercomparison exercises dedicated to evaluate models' ability of representing coastal changes. Uncertainties in projections can be substantially decreased if a selection of models is made and models that are unqualified for the representation of coastal dynamics are excluded.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
J.-L. Tison, M. de Angelis, G. Littot, E. Wolff, H. Fischer, M. Hansson, M. Bigler, R. Udisti, A. Wegner, J. Jouzel, B. Stenni, S. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Landais, V. Lipenkov, L. Loulergue, J.-M. Barnola, J.-R. Petit, B. Delmonte, G. Dreyfus, D. Dahl-Jensen, G. Durand, B. Bereiter, A. Schilt, R. Spahni, K. Pol, R. Lorrain, R. Souchez, and D. Samyn
The Cryosphere, 9, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, 2015
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The oldest paleoclimatic information is buried within the lowermost layers of deep ice cores. It is therefore essential to judge how deep these records remain unaltered. We study the bottom 60 meters of the EPICA Dome C ice core from central Antarctica to show that the paleoclimatic signal is only affected at the small scale (decimeters) in terms of some of the global ice properties. However our data suggest that the time scale has been considerably distorted by mechanical stretching.
N.-X. Geilfus, R. J. Galley, O. Crabeck, T. Papakyriakou, J. Landy, J.-L. Tison, and S. Rysgaard
Biogeosciences, 12, 2047–2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2047-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2047-2015, 2015
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We investigated the evolution of inorganic carbon within landfast sea ice in Resolute Passage during the spring and summer melt period.
Low TA and TCO2 concentrations observed in sea ice and brine were associated with the percolation of meltwater from melt ponds. Meltwater was continuously supplied to the ponds which prevented melt ponds from fully equilibrating with the atmospheric CO2 concentration, promoting a continuous uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere.
N.-X. Geilfus, J.-L. Tison, S. F. Ackley, R. J. Galley, S. Rysgaard, L. A. Miller, and B. Delille
The Cryosphere, 8, 2395–2407, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2395-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2395-2014, 2014
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Temporal evolution of pCO2 profiles in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica (Oct. 2007), shows that physical and thermodynamic processes control the CO2 system in the ice. We show that each cooling/warming event was associated with an increase/decrease in the brine salinity, TA, TCO2, and in situ brine and bulk ice pCO2. Thicker snow covers reduced the amplitude of these changes. Both brine and bulk ice pCO2 were undersaturated, causing the sea ice to act as a sink for atmospheric CO2.
O. Crabeck, B. Delille, D. Thomas, N.-X. Geilfus, S. Rysgaard, and J.-L. Tison
Biogeosciences, 11, 6525–6538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6525-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6525-2014, 2014
B. Noël, X. Fettweis, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 8, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, 2014
J. Zhou, B. Delille, F. Brabant, and J.-L. Tison
Biogeosciences, 11, 5007–5020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5007-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-5007-2014, 2014
S. Sun, S. L. Cornford, Y. Liu, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1561-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
S. Lhermitte, J. Abermann, and C. Kinnard
The Cryosphere, 8, 1069–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1069-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1069-2014, 2014
J. Zhou, J.-L. Tison, G. Carnat, N.-X. Geilfus, and B. Delille
The Cryosphere, 8, 1019–1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1019-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1019-2014, 2014
D. Callens, K. Matsuoka, D. Steinhage, B. Smith, E. Witrant, and F. Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 8, 867–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-867-2014, 2014
L. L. Sørensen, B. Jensen, R. N. Glud, D. F. McGinnis, M. K. Sejr, J. Sievers, D. H. Søgaard, J.-L. Tison, and S. Rysgaard
The Cryosphere, 8, 853–866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-853-2014, 2014
K. Van Tricht, I. V. Gorodetskaya, S. Lhermitte, D. D. Turner, J. H. Schween, and N. P. M. Van Lipzig
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1153–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1153-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1153-2014, 2014
J. T. M. Lenaerts, C. J. P. P. Smeets, K. Nishimura, M. Eijkelboom, W. Boot, M. R. van den Broeke, and W. J. van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 8, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, 2014
B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban
The Cryosphere, 8, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, 2014
D. Di Nitto, G. Neukermans, N. Koedam, H. Defever, F. Pattyn, J. G. Kairo, and F. Dahdouh-Guebas
Biogeosciences, 11, 857–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-857-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-857-2014, 2014
J. M. van Wessem, C. H. Reijmer, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 8, 125–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, 2014
M. Thoma, K. Grosfeld, D. Barbi, J. Determann, S. Goeller, C. Mayer, and F. Pattyn
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1-2014, 2014
H. Fischer, J. Severinghaus, E. Brook, E. Wolff, M. Albert, O. Alemany, R. Arthern, C. Bentley, D. Blankenship, J. Chappellaz, T. Creyts, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Dinn, M. Frezzotti, S. Fujita, H. Gallee, R. Hindmarsh, D. Hudspeth, G. Jugie, K. Kawamura, V. Lipenkov, H. Miller, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, F. Pattyn, C. Ritz, J. Schwander, D. Steinhage, T. van Ommen, and F. Wilhelms
Clim. Past, 9, 2489–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2489-2013, 2013
B. Van Liefferinge and F. Pattyn
Clim. Past, 9, 2335–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2335-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2335-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
M. Vancoppenolle, D. Notz, F. Vivier, J. Tison, B. Delille, G. Carnat, J. Zhou, F. Jardon, P. Griewank, A. Lourenço, and T. Haskell
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-3209-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-3209-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
X. Fettweis, B. Franco, M. Tedesco, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013
A. S. Drouet, D. Docquier, G. Durand, R. Hindmarsh, F. Pattyn, O. Gagliardini, and T. Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 7, 395–406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, 2013
I. M. Howat, S. de la Peña, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 7, 201–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Antarctic
Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica
Age–depth distribution in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and Antarctic-wide comparisons of internal reflection horizons
Assessing the sensitivity of the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, to basal melt and calving
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers
Satellite data reveal details of glacial isostatic adjustment in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
A reconstruction of the ice thickness of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70º S
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Current reversal leads to regime change in Amery Ice Shelf cavity in the twenty-first century
A facet based numerical model to retrieve ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith and Kohler region of West Antarctica
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Viscoelastic mechanics of tidally induced lake drainage in the Amery grounding zone
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines – Impact of critical access depths on sub-shelf melt
Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves
Englacial architecture of Lambert Glacier, East Antarctica
Mass changes of the northern Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet derived from repeat bi-static synthetic aperture radar acquisitions for the period 2013–2017
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of the MAR regional climate model snowpack to the parameterization of the assimilation of satellite-derived wet-snow masks on the Antarctic Peninsula
Stratigraphic noise and its potential drivers across the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica
Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 1181–1203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1181-2025, 2025
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The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the melting of floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that compared to climatic changes, the effect of relative sea level on ice-shelf melting is small.
Steven Franke, Daniel Steinhage, Veit Helm, Alexandra M. Zuhr, Julien A. Bodart, Olaf Eisen, and Paul Bons
The Cryosphere, 19, 1153–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1153-2025, 2025
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The study presents internal reflection horizons (IRHs) over an area of 450 000 km² from western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, spanning 4.8–91 ka. Using radar and ice core data, nine IRHs were dated and correlated with volcanic events. The data enhance our understanding of the ice sheet's age–depth architecture, accumulation, and dynamics. The findings inform ice flow models and contribute to Antarctic-wide comparisons of IRHs, supporting efforts toward a 3D age–depth ice sheet model.
Lawrence A. Bird, Felicity S. McCormack, Johanna Beckmann, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
The Cryosphere, 19, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-955-2025, 2025
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Vanderford Glacier is the fastest-retreating glacier in East Antarctica and may have important implications for future ice loss from the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our ice sheet model simulations suggest that grounding line retreat is driven by sub-ice-shelf basal melting, in which warm ocean waters melt ice close to the grounding line. We show that current estimates of basal melt are likely too low, highlighting the need for improved estimates and direct measurements of basal melt in the region.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 19, 919–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-919-2025, 2025
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We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 kyr by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~ 10 000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to the present of 9.2 to 26.5 m equivalent sea level relative to the present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing-ice problem.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
The Cryosphere, 19, 303–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-303-2025, 2025
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Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples, and ground-penetrating radar) to assess the suitability for subglacial drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak (74.86°S, 99.77°W).
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Mathieu Morlighem, Huw Horgan, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
The Cryosphere, 19, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-107-2025, 2025
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for predicting ice sheet change. Field measurements show clear intra-annual variations in ice flow; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. We show that local perturbations in basal melt can have a significant impact on ice flow speed, but a combination of forcings is likely driving the observed variability in ice flow.
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
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We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Matthias O. Willen, Bert Wouters, Taco Broerse, Eric Buchta, and Veit Helm
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3086, 2024
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Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the Amundsen Sea Embayment is likely in the near future. Vertical uplift of bedrock due to glacial isostatic adjustment stabilizes the ice sheet and may delay its collapse. So far, only spatially and temporally sparse GNSS measurements have been able to observe this bedrock motion. We have combined satellite data and quantified a region-wide bedrock motion that independently matches GNSS measurements. This can improve ice-sheet predictions.
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
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This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
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We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
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We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
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We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
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We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
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We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
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Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
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Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
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We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
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We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Kaian Shahateet, Johannes J. Fürst, Francisco Navarro, Thorsten Seehaus, Daniel Farinotti, and Matthias Braun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1571, 2024
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In the present work, we provide a new ice-thickness reconstruction of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet north of 70º S by using inversion modeling. This model consists of two steps; the first takes basic assumptions of the rheology of the glacier, and the second uses mass conservation to improve the reconstruction where the previously made assumptions are expected to fail. Validation with independent data showed that our reconstruction improved compared to other reconstruction available.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
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Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
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The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Jing Jin, Antony J. Payne, and Christopher Y. S. Bull
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1287, 2024
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The Amery Ice Shelf cavity is one of the largest cold cavities filled by relatively cold Dense Shelf Water. However, in this study, we show that warm intrusion of modified Circumpolar Deep Water flushes the Amery cavity, which changes it from a cold cavity to a warm cavity and leads to an abrupt increase in basal melt rate in the 2060s. The shift to the warm cavity is attributed to a freshening-driven current reversal in front of the ice shelf.
Jérémie Aublanc, François Boy, Franck Borde, and Pierre Féménias
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1323, 2024
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In this study we developed an innovative algorithm to derive the ice sheet topography from Sentinel-3 altimetry measurements. The processing chain is named the “Altimeter data Modelling and Processing for Land Ice” (AMPLI). The performance improvement is substantial compared to the official data generated by the ESA ground segment. With AMPLI, we show that Sentinel-3 is able to estimate the Surface Elevation Change of the Antarctic ice sheet with a high level of agreement to ICESat-2.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
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Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Heather Louise Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, 2024
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We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith and Kohler Region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10%, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of ‘ice piracy’ hasn’t previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
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We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
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The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
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Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
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The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Hanwen Zhang, Richard F. Katz, and Laura A. Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01249, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2311.01249, 2024
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In Antarctica, supraglacial lakes are formed by melting near the grounding lines, where grounded ice sheets transition to floating ice shelves. We model the tidal flexure near the grounding lines and analyse its contribution to lake drainage through hydrofracturing. We show that tidal flexure and lake water pressure together control lake drainage in the Amery Ice Shelf, which indicates the importance of tidal stress to processes associated with hydrofracturing near the grounding lines.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
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We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
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This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
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The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
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Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
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A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
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Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-58, 2024
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A mixed statistical-physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide a back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, 2023
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We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of critical access depths on basal melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that connect the deeper open ocean and the ice-shelf cavity. We detect 'prominent' oceanic gateways in some Antarctic regions and estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
Joel A. Wilner, Mathieu Morlighem, and Gong Cheng
The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023
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We use numerical modeling to study iceberg calving off of ice shelves in Antarctica. We examine four widely used mathematical descriptions of calving (
calving laws), under the assumption that Antarctic ice shelf front positions should be in steady state under the current climate forcing. We quantify how well each of these calving laws replicates the observed front positions. Our results suggest that the eigencalving and von Mises laws are most suitable for Antarctic ice shelves.
Rebecca J. Sanderson, Kate Winter, S. Louise Callard, Felipe Napoleoni, Neil Ross, Tom A. Jordan, and Robert G. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 17, 4853–4871, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4853-2023, 2023
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Ice-penetrating radar allows us to explore the internal structure of glaciers and ice sheets to constrain past and present ice-flow conditions. In this paper, we examine englacial layers within the Lambert Glacier in East Antarctica using a quantitative layer tracing tool. Analysis reveals that the ice flow here has been relatively stable, but evidence for former fast flow along a tributary suggests that changes have occurred in the past and could change again in the future.
Thorsten Seehaus, Christian Sommer, Thomas Dethinne, and Philipp Malz
The Cryosphere, 17, 4629–4644, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4629-2023, 2023
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Existing mass budget estimates for the northern Antarctic Peninsula (>70° S) are affected by considerable limitations. We carried out the first region-wide analysis of geodetic mass balances throughout this region (coverage of 96.4 %) for the period 2013–2017 based on repeat pass bi-static TanDEM-X acquisitions. A total mass budget of −24.1±2.8 Gt/a is revealed. Imbalanced high ice discharge, particularly at former ice shelf tributaries, is the main driver of overall ice loss.
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
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We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
Gemma K. O'Connor, Paul R. Holland, Eric J. Steig, Pierre Dutrieux, and Gregory J. Hakim
The Cryosphere, 17, 4399–4420, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4399-2023, 2023
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Glaciers in West Antarctica are rapidly melting, but the causes are unknown due to limited observations. A leading hypothesis is that an unusually large wind event in the 1940s initiated the ocean-driven melting. Using proxy reconstructions (e.g., using ice cores) and climate model simulations, we find that wind events similar to the 1940s event are relatively common on millennial timescales, implying that ocean variability or climate trends are also necessary to explain the start of ice loss.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
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We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nora Hirsch, Alexandra Zuhr, Thomas Münch, Maria Hörhold, Johannes Freitag, Remi Dallmayr, and Thomas Laepple
The Cryosphere, 17, 4207–4221, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4207-2023, 2023
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Stable water isotopes from firn cores provide valuable information on past climates, yet their utility is hampered by stratigraphic noise, i.e. the irregular deposition and wind-driven redistribution of snow. We found stratigraphic noise on the Antarctic Plateau to be related to the local accumulation rate, snow surface roughness and slope inclination, which can guide future decisions on sampling locations and thus increase the resolution of climate reconstructions from low-accumulation areas.
Bryony I. D. Freer, Oliver J. Marsh, Anna E. Hogg, Helen Amanda Fricker, and Laurie Padman
The Cryosphere, 17, 4079–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method using ICESat-2 data to measure how Antarctic grounding lines (GLs) migrate across the tide cycle. At an ice plain on the Ronne Ice Shelf we observe 15 km of tidal GL migration, the largest reported distance in Antarctica, dominating any signal of long-term migration. We identify four distinct migration modes, which provide both observational support for models of tidal ice flexure and GL migration and insights into ice shelf–ocean–subglacial interactions in grounding zones.
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Short summary
Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an...
