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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).

We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016

Research article 05 Feb 2016

Research article | 05 Feb 2016

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

W. Wang et al.

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Cited articles

Alexeev, V., Nicolsky, D., Romanovsky, V., and Lawrence, D.: An evaluation of deep soil configurations in the CLM3 for improved representation of permafrost, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029536, 2007.
AWFA: Data format handbook for AGRMET, available at: http://www.mmm.ucar.~edu/mm5/documents/DATA_FORMAT_HANDBOOK.pdf (last access: 20 January 2010), 2002.
Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R .L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model. Dev., 4, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011.
Brown, J., Ferrians, O., Heginbottom, J., and Melnikov, E.: Circum-Arctic map of permafrost and ground-ice conditions, Circum-Pacific Map, US Geological Survey, Reston, USA, 1997.
Che, T., Li, X., Jin, R., Armstrong, R., and Zhang, T. J.: Snow depth derived from passive microwave remote-sensing data in China, Ann. Glaciol., 49, 145–154, 2008.
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Short summary
We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).

We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
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