Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 05 Feb 2016
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
W. Wang
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
J. C. Moore
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
X. Cui
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Q. Li
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
N. Zhang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, China
D. M. Lawrence
NCAR, Boulder, USA
A. D. McGuire
US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
C. Delire
GAME, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex, France
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
K. Saito
Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
A. MacDougall
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
B. Decharme
GAME, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex, France
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Cited
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A New Scheme for Considering Soil Water‐Heat Transport Coupling Based on Community Land Model: Model Description and Preliminary Validation C. Wang & K. Yang 10.1002/2017MS001148
- Satellite-based simulation of soil freezing/thawing processes in the northeast Tibetan Plateau G. Zheng et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111269
- The imbalance of the Asian water tower T. Yao et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
- Spatiotemporal changes of permafrost in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River under a changing climate Y. Sheng et al. 10.1002/ldr.3434
- Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering Y. Chen et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-16357-8
- PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments A. Liu et al. 10.5194/esd-14-39-2023
- Multisite evaluation of physics-informed deep learning for permafrost prediction in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Y. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.104009
- Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming Z. Sun et al. 10.3390/atmos15010012
- A new map of permafrost distribution on the Tibetan Plateau D. Zou et al. 10.5194/tc-11-2527-2017
- Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century G. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2022EF002652
- Simulating the roles of crevasse routing of surface water and basal friction on the surge evolution of Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap Y. Gong et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018
- Modeling permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibetan plateau from 1966 to 2100: A case study from two boreholes along the Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor Z. Sun et al. 10.1002/ppp.2022
- Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions S. Peng & Z. Li 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.194
- Water and heat coupling processes and its simulation in frozen soils: Current status and future research directions G. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106844
- Water storage effect of soil freeze-thaw process and its impacts on soil hydro-thermal regime variations K. Yang & C. Wang 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.11.011
- Effects of organic soil in the Noah-MP land-surface model on simulated skin and soil temperature profiles and surface energy exchanges for China G. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105284
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2259-2020
- Thaw depth spatial and temporal variability at the Limnopolar Lake CALM-S site, Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, Antarctica M. de Pablo et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.284
- On the Spin‐Up Strategy for Spatial Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics: A Case Study on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau H. Ji et al. 10.1029/2021MS002750
- Effect of climate and thaw depth on alpine vegetation variations at different permafrost degrading stages in the Tibetan Plateau, China Y. Feng et al. 10.1080/15230430.2019.1605798
- Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 A. McGuire et al. 10.1002/2016GB005405
- Impacts of snow and organic soils parameterization on northern Eurasian soil temperature profiles simulated by the ISBA land surface model B. Decharme et al. 10.5194/tc-10-853-2016
- Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming Y. Kong & C. Wang 10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002
- Simulation of permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, over the past three decades X. Xu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2016.1237571
- Permafrost variability over the Northern Hemisphere based on the MERRA-2 reanalysis J. Tao et al. 10.5194/tc-13-2087-2019
- A new 2010 permafrost distribution map over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on subregion survey maps: a benchmark for regional permafrost modeling Z. Cao et al. 10.5194/essd-15-3905-2023
- Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change C. Wang et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-39942-4
- Permafrost Presence/Absence Mapping of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data Y. Shi et al. 10.3390/rs10020309
- Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Q. Lu et al. 10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7
- Changes in the Seasonally Frozen Ground Over the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the Past 60 Years C. Wang et al. 10.3389/feart.2020.00270
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A New Scheme for Considering Soil Water‐Heat Transport Coupling Based on Community Land Model: Model Description and Preliminary Validation C. Wang & K. Yang 10.1002/2017MS001148
- Satellite-based simulation of soil freezing/thawing processes in the northeast Tibetan Plateau G. Zheng et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111269
- The imbalance of the Asian water tower T. Yao et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00299-4
- Spatiotemporal changes of permafrost in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River under a changing climate Y. Sheng et al. 10.1002/ldr.3434
- Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering Y. Chen et al. 10.1038/s41467-020-16357-8
- PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments A. Liu et al. 10.5194/esd-14-39-2023
- Multisite evaluation of physics-informed deep learning for permafrost prediction in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Y. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.104009
- Effects of Ground Subsidence on Permafrost Simulation Related to Climate Warming Z. Sun et al. 10.3390/atmos15010012
- A new map of permafrost distribution on the Tibetan Plateau D. Zou et al. 10.5194/tc-11-2527-2017
- Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost at Risk in the Late 21st Century G. Zhang et al. 10.1029/2022EF002652
- Simulating the roles of crevasse routing of surface water and basal friction on the surge evolution of Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap Y. Gong et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018
- Modeling permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibetan plateau from 1966 to 2100: A case study from two boreholes along the Qinghai–Tibet engineering corridor Z. Sun et al. 10.1002/ppp.2022
- Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions S. Peng & Z. Li 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.194
- Water and heat coupling processes and its simulation in frozen soils: Current status and future research directions G. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106844
- Water storage effect of soil freeze-thaw process and its impacts on soil hydro-thermal regime variations K. Yang & C. Wang 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.11.011
- Effects of organic soil in the Noah-MP land-surface model on simulated skin and soil temperature profiles and surface energy exchanges for China G. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105284
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2259-2020
- Thaw depth spatial and temporal variability at the Limnopolar Lake CALM-S site, Byers Peninsula, Livingston Island, Antarctica M. de Pablo et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.284
- On the Spin‐Up Strategy for Spatial Modeling of Permafrost Dynamics: A Case Study on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau H. Ji et al. 10.1029/2021MS002750
- Effect of climate and thaw depth on alpine vegetation variations at different permafrost degrading stages in the Tibetan Plateau, China Y. Feng et al. 10.1080/15230430.2019.1605798
- Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009 A. McGuire et al. 10.1002/2016GB005405
- Impacts of snow and organic soils parameterization on northern Eurasian soil temperature profiles simulated by the ISBA land surface model B. Decharme et al. 10.5194/tc-10-853-2016
- Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming Y. Kong & C. Wang 10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002
- Simulation of permafrost changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, over the past three decades X. Xu et al. 10.1080/17538947.2016.1237571
- Permafrost variability over the Northern Hemisphere based on the MERRA-2 reanalysis J. Tao et al. 10.5194/tc-13-2087-2019
- A new 2010 permafrost distribution map over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on subregion survey maps: a benchmark for regional permafrost modeling Z. Cao et al. 10.5194/essd-15-3905-2023
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change C. Wang et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-39942-4
- Permafrost Presence/Absence Mapping of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data Y. Shi et al. 10.3390/rs10020309
- Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Q. Lu et al. 10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7
- Changes in the Seasonally Frozen Ground Over the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the Past 60 Years C. Wang et al. 10.3389/feart.2020.00270
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 18 Apr 2024
Short summary
We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify...
