Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 05 Feb 2016
Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area
W. Wang
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
J. C. Moore
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
X. Cui
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Q. Li
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
N. Zhang
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, China
D. M. Lawrence
NCAR, Boulder, USA
A. D. McGuire
US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
C. Delire
GAME, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex, France
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
K. Saito
Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
A. MacDougall
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
B. Decharme
GAME, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex, France
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Latest update: 20 Nov 2025
Short summary
We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify...
