Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025
Research article
 | 
24 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 24 Apr 2025

Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200

Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand

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Cited articles

Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a, b
Agosta, C., Davrinche, C., Kittel, C., Amory, C., and Edwards, T.: Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, atmosphere and surface ocean, Tech. Rep., Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11595213, 2024. a
Alley, K. E., Scambos, T. A., Miller, J. Z., Long, D. G., and MacFerrin, M.: Quantifying vulnerability of Antarctic ice shelves to hydrofracture using microwave scattering properties, Remote Sens. Environ., 210, 297–306, 2018. a, b, c
Arthur, J. F., Stokes, C., Jamieson, S. S. R., Carr, J. R., and Leeson, A. A.: Recent understanding of Antarctic supraglacial lakes using satellite remote sensing, Prog. Phys. Geogr. Earth Environ., 44, 837–869, 2020. a, b
Arthur, J. F., Stokes, C. R., Jamieson, S. S. R., Carr, R. J., Leeson, A. A., and Verjans, V.: Large interannual variability in supraglacial lakes around East Antarctica, Nat. Commun., 13, 1711, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29385-3, 2022. a, b
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Short summary
A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
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