Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200

Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Amory, Charles; Kittel, Christoph; Durand, Gaël

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

Research article

|

24 Apr 2025

Research article |

| 24 Apr 2025

Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200

Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand

Model code and software

nicojourdain/extend_SMB_melt_runoff: Initial release (v1.0). Zenodo. N. C. Jourdain https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13756240

nicojourdain/SCRIPTS_PAPER_PLOTS: r2.0 N. C. Jourdain https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15003864

Short summary

A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.