Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025
Research article
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04 Apr 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 04 Apr 2025

Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins

Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren

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Climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections
Lizz Ultee, Finn Wimberly, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3965,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3965, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Cited articles

Aguayo, R., Maussion, F., Schuster, L., Schaefer, M., Caro, A., Schmitt, P., Mackay, J., Ultee, L., Leon-Muñoz, J., and Aguayo, M.: Assessing the glacier projection uncertainties in the Patagonian Andes (40–56° S) from a catchment perspective, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2325, 2023. a, b, c
Ahmed, R., Wani, G. F., Ahmad, S. T., Sahana, M., Singh, H., and Ahmed, P.: A review of glacial lake expansion and associated glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayan region, Earth Syst. Environ., 5, 695–708, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00230-9, 2021. a
Bosson, J.-B., Huss, M., and Osipova, E.: Disappearing world heritage glaciers as a keystone of nature conservation in a changing climate, Earth's Future, 7, 469–479, 2019. a
Bosson, J.-B., Huss, M., Cauvy-Fraunié, S., Clément, J.-C., Costes, G., Fischer, M., Poulenard, J., and Arthaud, F.: Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat, Nature, 620, 562–569, 2023. a
Christian, J. E., Whorton, E., Carnahan, E., Koutnik, M., and Roe, G.: Differences in the transient responses of individual glaciers: a case study of the Cascade Mountains of Washington State, USA, J. Glaciol., 68, 751–763, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.133, 2022. a
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Co-editor-in-chief
This study explores how choice of glacier and GCM model can impact prediction of future runoff for 75 of the world's major river basins. It is a very timely piece of research given ongoing pressures on river flow in glaciated regions which are on track to worsen, and offers a framework from which modellers can produce policy-relevant information related to future contribution of glaciers to freshwater resources, including consideration of uncertainty.
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
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