Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins

Wimberly, Finn; Ultee, Lizz; Schuster, Lilian; Huss, Matthias; Rounce, David R.; Maussion, Fabien; Coats, Sloan; Mackay, Jonathan; Holmgren, Erik

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

04 Apr 2025

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 04 Apr 2025

Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins

Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren

Data sets

Processed Runoff Files Finn Wimberly https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pk0p2ngxf

Model code and software

Runoff Processing Notebooks Finn Wimberly and Lizz Ultee https://github.com/finnwimberly/glacial_runoff_intercomparison

Co-editor-in-chief

This study explores how choice of glacier and GCM model can impact prediction of future runoff for 75 of the world's major river basins. It is a very timely piece of research given ongoing pressures on river flow in glaciated regions which are on track to worsen, and offers a framework from which modellers can produce policy-relevant information related to future contribution of glaciers to freshwater resources, including consideration of uncertainty.

Short summary

Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km² with over 30 km² of initial glacier cover.