Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins
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- Final revised paper (published on 04 Apr 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 Jun 2024)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1778', Mauri Pelto, 29 Sep 2024
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Finn Wimberly, 17 Dec 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1778', Pascal Egli, 16 Nov 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Finn Wimberly, 17 Dec 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (20 Dec 2024) by Caroline Clason
AR by Finn Wimberly on behalf of the Authors (13 Jan 2025)
Author's response
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ED: Publish as is (15 Jan 2025) by Caroline Clason
AR by Finn Wimberly on behalf of the Authors (06 Feb 2025)
Manuscript
I appreciate the authors providing an article that triggered my curiosity and motivates a desire to know more, this is indicative of a useful contribution. The evaluation of three glacier models and a suite of GCMs provides a useful quantification of the variation and congruence of the resulting glacier runoff and peak water timing.
The comments below are directed at encouraging the authors to provide further context that will clarify the results and increase the impact. Responding to the comments are an opportunity not a requirement for publication of this study. Defining the seasonal/annual time interval of peak water identification is crucial. Further exploration of the reasons behind model variations, including referencing other related studies for basin comparisons if practical.
Specific Comments
18: For consistency in the referencing in this section and to focus on aspects that are not human centric, it would be appropriate to add an older reference for altering ecosystems to Bossons et al (2023), maybe Jacobsen et al (2012) or Pittman et al (2020).
26: Peak water can be defined seasonally or annually, in terms of the glacier runoff component or overall discharge. Is peak water evaluated on an annual or seasonal basis and is it for glacier runoff or encompassing of the area of the watershed initially occupied by the glacier?
152: Explain the rationale for using a 20-year rolling mean to determine peak runoff timing? This is a long-time interval.
182: An interesting distribution of highest relative runoff for regions for OGGM and GloGem, as there is not a shared climate or glacier type. Huss et al (2017: Fig. 3) and other have provided nice global maps of contributions of snow and ice melt vs effective precipitation revealing a wide range that illustrates a different picture based on specific hydrologic variables.
184: Moore et al (2020) utilized the glacier wastage contribution to runoff to distinguish glacier mass loss vs runoff from seasonal snow melt loss or precipitation. In looking at your results does this consideration explain any of the SSP variation? They observe that glacier-melt contributions have already passed peak water in the Columbia River headwaters. and there is a declining trend in realized streamflow.
185: It would be useful to provide a bit of a comparison for these five basins shown in Figure 2 and 3. % of basin with glaciers, mean annual precipitation range for glaciers, % of discharge during peak season provided by glaciers. Does not have to be these specific variables, but some that differentiate the basins.
192: The Yukon basin much different in terms of glacier size/type then Rhone or Glomaa. Another interesting geographic range in shared response that could be explored further.
Figure 4. This is an exceptionally valuable figure. The time frame/range of overlap is relatively narrow in most cases in Column b, not sure if it is worth trying to better illustrate this with a shading of some sort.
212: Why is the GCM peak water timing range so large compared to SSP and GM?
222: Does seasonality increase as you go further south in the Andes. If so that is worth noting.
223: Is the range of increase from arid to maritime basins indicative of the precipitation trend?
224: The increasing magnitude of peak runoff reported for the Skagit basin is not in agreement with other modelling or observations of glacier runoff. A peak water year of 2026 is noted, although peak flow has already occurred in this area according to (Riedel and Larabee, 2016; Pelto et al 2022) based on streamflow and glacier runoff observations in the region and modelling from (Bliss et al 2014; Moore et al 2020; Ultee et al 2023). Are the glaciers models utilized generating too much runoff from this region, or is this discrepancy the result of accounting for runoff from the same area, including former glaciated and currently glaciated areas as time progresses, and hence the models reflect increased precipitation/snowfall? If so it is worth providing a description of this using a specific use case. For maritime Alaska, the rising maximum peak runoff observation is supported by results from Young et al (2021).
Figure 6: This figure illustrates the variation by model, would be useful to add to this figure a geographic domain using same color scheme but adding symbol variation.
310: Reword –“are much more similar” to “significantly reduced offsets”.
320: Utilize a reference that has attempted to quantify this precipitation variability in GCM projections.
339: In terms of human intervention is probably worth noting key mechanisms, most importantly diversions for agriculture or hydropower and reservoir storage.
352: Given the quantitatively consistent earlier shift in runoff timing and lower magnitude of runoff, reported across glacier models. Comment further on the impact on drought buffering.
Bliss, A., Hock, R. and Radić, V.: Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first century climate change, J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf., 119, 717–730, doi:10.1002/2013JF002931, 2014.
Jacobsen, D., Milner, A., Brown, L., and Dangles O.: Biodiversity under threat in glacier-fed river systems, Nat. Clim. Change, 2,361–364. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1435, 2012.
Moore, R.D., Pelto, B., Menounos, B. and Hutchinson, D.: Detecting the Effects of Sustained Glacier Wastage on Streamflow in Variably Glacierized Catchments. Front. Earth Sci., 8:136. doi: 10.3389/feart.2020.00136, 2020.
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Pitman, K., Moore, J., Sloat, M., et al,: Glacier Retreat and Pacific Salmon, BioScience, 70 (3), 220–236, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa015, 2020.
Riedel, J. and Larrabee, M.: Impact of Recent Glacial Recession on Summer Streamflow in the Skagit River. Northwest Science, 90(1), 5-22. https://doi.org/10.3955/046.090.0103, 2016.
Ultee, L., Coats, S., and Mackay, J.: Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century. Earth System Dynamics, 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022.
Young, J. C., Pettit, E., Arendt, A., Hood, E., Liston, G. E., and Beamer, J.: A changing hydrological regime: Trends in magnitude and timing of glacier ice melt and glacier runoff in a high latitude coastal watershed. Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR027404. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027404, 2021.