Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
04 Apr 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 04 Apr 2025
| 04 Apr 2025
Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins
Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, USA
Lizz Ultee
Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, USA
Lilian Schuster
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Matthias Huss
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
David R. Rounce
Department of Civil Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Fabien Maussion
School of Geography, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Sloan Coats
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
Jonathan Mackay
British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, UK
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK
Erik Holmgren
Department of Space, Earth, and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
- An integrated assessment of water scarcity and glacier runoff changes in Asian and South American glacierized basins R. Calvo-Gallardo et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.10046
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026
- Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing M. Shafeeque et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-875-2026
- Rain-snow-ice dynamics substantially changed the hydrological regime in arid inland river basins S. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103615
- Limited meltwater potential in the Asian Water Tower to mitigate downstream urban scarcity L. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73245-3
- Hydrological response to glacier peak water in the largest inland river basin of China H. Lyu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135695
- Record-breaking glacier mass loss in Central Asia in 2025 L. Tricht et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae6712
- How does glacier flow vary by season? L. Ultee https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aec7025
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026
- Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers K. Sjursen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5801-2025
- Volume estimation and dynamics of the Purog Kangri ice field on the inner Tibetan Plateau P. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103257
- Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
- An integrated assessment of water scarcity and glacier runoff changes in Asian and South American glacierized basins R. Calvo-Gallardo et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.10046
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026
- Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing M. Shafeeque et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-875-2026
- Rain-snow-ice dynamics substantially changed the hydrological regime in arid inland river basins S. Han et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103615
- Limited meltwater potential in the Asian Water Tower to mitigate downstream urban scarcity L. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73245-3
- Hydrological response to glacier peak water in the largest inland river basin of China H. Lyu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135695
- Record-breaking glacier mass loss in Central Asia in 2025 L. Tricht et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae6712
- How does glacier flow vary by season? L. Ultee https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aec7025
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026
- Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers K. Sjursen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5801-2025
- Volume estimation and dynamics of the Purog Kangri ice field on the inner Tibetan Plateau P. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103257
- Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Aug 2026
Editorial statement
This study explores how choice of glacier and GCM model can impact prediction of future runoff for 75 of the world's major river basins. It is a very timely piece of research given ongoing pressures on river flow in glaciated regions which are on track to worsen, and offers a framework from which modellers can produce policy-relevant information related to future contribution of glaciers to freshwater resources, including consideration of uncertainty.
This study explores how choice of glacier and GCM model can impact prediction of future runoff...
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea...
