Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2941-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 20 Jul 2023
| 20 Jul 2023
Meltwater runoff and glacier mass balance in the high Arctic: 1991–2022 simulations for Svalbard
Louise Steffensen Schmidt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Thomas Vikhamar Schuler
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Erin Emily Thomas
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
currently at: Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-108, 2025
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Ribbed moraines are a common, but poorly understood landform within formerly glaciated regions. There are many competing theories for their formation. As such, this paper addresses some of these theories by taking modelled ice conditions and physical characteristics of the landscapes in which they form and, then comparing them to the location of ribbed moraines. Using this we can identify conditions where ribbed moraines are more often present, and therefore we identify the most likely theories.
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We explore the interplay between surface runoff and subglacial conditions. We focus on Kongsvegen glacier in Svalbard. We drilled 350 m down to the glacier base to measure water pressure, till strength, seismic noise, and glacier surface velocity. In the low-melt season, the drainage system adapted gradually, while the high-melt season led to a transient response, exceeding drainage capacity and enhancing sliding. Our findings contribute to discussions on subglacial hydro-mechanical processes.
Andrea Spolaor, Federico Scoto, Catherine Larose, Elena Barbaro, Francois Burgay, Mats P. Bjorkman, David Cappelletti, Federico Dallo, Fabrizio de Blasi, Dmitry Divine, Giuliano Dreossi, Jacopo Gabrieli, Elisabeth Isaksson, Jack Kohler, Tonu Martma, Louise S. Schmidt, Thomas V. Schuler, Barbara Stenni, Clara Turetta, Bartłomiej Luks, Mathieu Casado, and Jean-Charles Gallet
The Cryosphere, 18, 307–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, 2024
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We evaluate the impact of the increased snowmelt on the preservation of the oxygen isotope (δ18O) signal in firn records recovered from the top of the Holtedahlfonna ice field located in the Svalbard archipelago. Thanks to a multidisciplinary approach we demonstrate a progressive deterioration of the isotope signal in the firn core. We link the degradation of the δ18O signal to the increased occurrence and intensity of melt events associated with the rapid warming occurring in the archipelago.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Chao Yue, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We use the ice sheet model PISM to estimate Vatnajökull mass balance under solar geoengineering. We find that Stratospheric aerosol injection at the rate of 5 Tg yr−1 reduces ice cap mass loss by 4 percentage points relative to the RCP4.5 scenario. Dynamic mass loss is a significant component of mass balance, but insensitive to climate forcing.
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The Cryosphere, 19, 3459–3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3459-2025, 2025
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Permafrost underlies ice-free areas of Antarctica, but its response to long-term warming is unclear due to a limited number of monitoring sites. To address this, we used the CryoGrid model, forced with climate data, to estimate permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness at King Sejong Station since 1950. The results show ground temperatures rising 0.25 °C per decade and the active layer thickening by 2 m. Warming has accelerated since 2015, highlighting the need for continued monitoring.
Jacqueline K. Knutson, François Clayer, Peter Dörsch, Sebastian Westermann, and Heleen A. de Wit
Biogeosciences, 22, 3899–3914, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3899-2025, 2025
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Thawing permafrost at Iškoras in northern Norway is transforming peat plateaus into thermokarst ponds and wetlands. These small ponds show striking oversaturation of dissolved greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), partly owing to organic matter processing. Streams nearby emit CO2, driven by turbulence. As permafrost disappears, carbon dynamics will change, potentially increasing emissions of CH4. This study highlights the need to integrate these changes into climate models.
Anfisa Pismeniuk, Peter Dörsch, Mats Ippach, Clarissa Willmes, Sunniva Sheffield, Norbert Pirk, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3059, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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Thermokarst ponds in high latitudes are important methane (CH4) sources in summer. Meanwhile, these lakes are ice-covered for around 60 % of the year and can accumulate CH4 in the ice and within the underlying water column, which potentially results in high emissions during the ice-off. Here, we present data on wintertime CH4 storage of ponds located within two peat plateaus in Northern Norway. Our results show that the wintertime CH4 storage can contribute up to 40 % to the annual CH4 budget.
Robin B. Zweigel, Dashtseren Avirmed, Khurelbaatar Temuujin, Clare Webster, Hanna Lee, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2366, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Two years of data along a forest disturbance gradient in Mongolia show a larger annual ground surface temperature range in dead and logged forests than intact forest, while the range is dampened in stands of young regrowth. Compared to intact forest, mean annual ground surface temperatures are 0.5 °C colder in dead and logged forest and dense stands of young regrowth. This is linked to differences in vegetation and surface cover due to the disturbance and patterns in livestock activity.
Thomas James Barnes, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, and Louise Steffensen Schmidt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-108, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
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Ribbed moraines are a common, but poorly understood landform within formerly glaciated regions. There are many competing theories for their formation. As such, this paper addresses some of these theories by taking modelled ice conditions and physical characteristics of the landscapes in which they form and, then comparing them to the location of ribbed moraines. Using this we can identify conditions where ribbed moraines are more often present, and therefore we identify the most likely theories.
Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-467, 2025
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We model the historical and future evolution of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in Norway, projecting substantial and largely irreversible mass loss for the 21st century, and that the ice cap will split into three parts. Further mass loss is in the pipeline, with a disappearance during the 22nd century under high emissions. Our study demonstrates an approach to model complex ice masses, highlights uncertainties due to precipitation, and calls for further research on long-term future glacier change.
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In permafrost environments, the ground surface moves due to the formation and melt of ice in the ground. This study compares ground surface displacements measured from satellite images against field data of ground ice contents. We find good agreement between the detected seasonal subsidence and observed ground ice melt. Our results show the potential of satellite remote sensing for mapping ground ice variability, but also indicate that ice in excess of the pore space must be considered.
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Biogeosciences, 21, 5059–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5059-2024, 2024
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Intense grazing at grassland sites removes vegetation, reduces the snow cover, and inhibits litter layers from forming. Grazed sites generally have a larger annual ground surface temperature amplitude than ungrazed sites, but the net effect depends on effects in the transitional seasons. Our results also suggest that seasonal use of pastures can reduce ground temperatures, which can be a strategy to protect currently degrading grassland permafrost.
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Biogeosciences, 21, 4723–4737, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4723-2024, 2024
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Permafrost peatlands are thawing due to climate change, releasing large quantities of carbon that degrades upon thawing and is released as CO2, CH4 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We incubated thawed Norwegian permafrost peat plateaus and thermokarst pond sediment found next to permafrost for up to 350 d to measure carbon loss. CO2 production was initially the highest, whereas CH4 production increased over time. The largest carbon loss was measured at the top of the peat plateau core as DOC.
Juditha Aga, Livia Piermattei, Luc Girod, Kristoffer Aalstad, Trond Eiken, Andreas Kääb, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 1049–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-1049-2024, 2024
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Coastal rock cliffs on Svalbard are considered to be fairly stable; however, long-term trends in coastal-retreat rates remain unknown. This study examines changes in the coastline position along Brøggerhalvøya, Svalbard, using aerial images from 1970, 1990, 2010, and 2021. Our analysis shows that coastal-retreat rates accelerate during the period 2010–2021, which coincides with increasing storminess and retreating sea ice.
Coline Bouchayer, Ugo Nanni, Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre, John Hult, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Jack Kohler, François Renard, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere, 18, 2939–2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the interplay between surface runoff and subglacial conditions. We focus on Kongsvegen glacier in Svalbard. We drilled 350 m down to the glacier base to measure water pressure, till strength, seismic noise, and glacier surface velocity. In the low-melt season, the drainage system adapted gradually, while the high-melt season led to a transient response, exceeding drainage capacity and enhancing sliding. Our findings contribute to discussions on subglacial hydro-mechanical processes.
Thomas J. Barnes, Thomas V. Schuler, Simon Filhol, and Karianne S. Lilleøren
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 801–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-801-2024, 2024
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In this paper, we use machine learning to automatically outline landforms based on their characteristics. We test several methods to identify the most accurate and then proceed to develop the most accurate to improve its accuracy further. We manage to outline landforms with 65 %–75 % accuracy, at a resolution of 10 m, thanks to high-quality/high-resolution elevation data. We find that it is possible to run this method at a country scale to quickly produce landform inventories for future studies.
Marco Mazzolini, Kristoffer Aalstad, Esteban Alonso-González, Sebastian Westermann, and Désirée Treichler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1404, 2024
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In this work, we use the satellite laser altimeter ICESat-2 to retrieve snow depth in areas where snow amounts are still poorly estimated despite the high societal importance. We explore how to update snow models with these observations through algorithms that spatially propagate the information beyond the narrow satellite profiles. The positive results show the potential of this approach for improving snow simulations, both in terms of average snow depth and spatial distribution.
Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Brian Groenke, Lisa-Marie Assmann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Simone Maria Stuenzi, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 18, 363–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024, 2024
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Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Andrea Spolaor, Federico Scoto, Catherine Larose, Elena Barbaro, Francois Burgay, Mats P. Bjorkman, David Cappelletti, Federico Dallo, Fabrizio de Blasi, Dmitry Divine, Giuliano Dreossi, Jacopo Gabrieli, Elisabeth Isaksson, Jack Kohler, Tonu Martma, Louise S. Schmidt, Thomas V. Schuler, Barbara Stenni, Clara Turetta, Bartłomiej Luks, Mathieu Casado, and Jean-Charles Gallet
The Cryosphere, 18, 307–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-307-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the impact of the increased snowmelt on the preservation of the oxygen isotope (δ18O) signal in firn records recovered from the top of the Holtedahlfonna ice field located in the Svalbard archipelago. Thanks to a multidisciplinary approach we demonstrate a progressive deterioration of the isotope signal in the firn core. We link the degradation of the δ18O signal to the increased occurrence and intensity of melt events associated with the rapid warming occurring in the archipelago.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Justyna Czekirda, Sebastian Westermann, Christin Hilbich, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 17, 5477–5497, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5477-2023, 2023
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Permafrost (permanently frozen ground) is widespread in the mountains of Norway and Iceland. Several boreholes were drilled after 1999 for long-term permafrost monitoring. We document a strong warming of permafrost, including the development of unfrozen bodies in the permafrost. Warming and degradation of mountain permafrost may lead to more natural hazards.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4637–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4637-2023, 2023
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Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5 m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open-source data assimilation tool that is readily accessible to everyone.
Anatoly O. Sinitsyn, Sara Bazin, Rasmus Benestad, Bernd Etzelmüller, Ketil Isaksen, Hanne Kvitsand, Julia Lutz, Andrea L. Popp, Lena Rubensdotter, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2950, 2023
Preprint archived
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This study looked at under the ground on Svalbard, an archipelago close to the North Pole. We found something very surprising – there is water under the all year around frozen soil. This was not known before. This water could be used for drinking if we manage it carefully. This is important because getting clean drinking water is very difficult in Svalbard, and other Arctic places. Also, because the climate is getting warmer, there might be even more water underground in the future.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
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This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Matan Ben-Asher, Florence Magnin, Sebastian Westermann, Josué Bock, Emmanuel Malet, Johan Berthet, Ludovic Ravanel, and Philip Deline
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 899–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-899-2023, 2023
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Quantitative knowledge of water availability on high mountain rock slopes is very limited. We use a numerical model and field measurements to estimate the water balance at a steep rock wall site. We show that snowmelt is the main source of water at elevations >3600 m and that snowpack hydrology and sublimation are key factors. The new information presented here can be used to improve the understanding of thermal, hydrogeological, and mechanical processes on steep mountain rock slopes.
Brian Groenke, Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Sebastian Westermann, Guillermo Gallego, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 17, 3505–3533, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023, 2023
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It is now well known from long-term temperature measurements that Arctic permafrost, i.e., ground that remains continuously frozen for at least 2 years, is warming in response to climate change. Temperature, however, only tells half of the story. In this study, we use computer modeling to better understand how the thawing and freezing of water in the ground affects the way permafrost responds to climate change and what temperature trends can and cannot tell us about how permafrost is changing.
Justyna Czekirda, Bernd Etzelmüller, Sebastian Westermann, Ketil Isaksen, and Florence Magnin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2725–2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2725-2023, 2023
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We assess spatio-temporal permafrost variations in selected rock walls in Norway over the last 120 years. Ground temperature is modelled using the two-dimensional ground heat flux model CryoGrid 2D along nine profiles. Permafrost probably occurs at most sites. All simulations show increasing ground temperature from the 1980s. Our simulations show that rock wall permafrost with a temperature of −1 °C at 20 m depth could thaw at this depth within 50 years.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
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We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Johanna Scheer, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Nitin Chaudhary, Bernd Etzelmüller, Simon Filhol, Andreas Kääb, Cas Renette, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Robin B. Zweigel, Léo Martin, Sarah Morard, Matan Ben-Asher, Michael Angelopoulos, Julia Boike, Brian Groenke, Frederieke Miesner, Jan Nitzbon, Paul Overduin, Simone M. Stuenzi, and Moritz Langer
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2607–2647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2607-2023, 2023
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The CryoGrid community model is a new tool for simulating ground temperatures and the water and ice balance in cold regions. It is a modular design, which makes it possible to test different schemes to simulate, for example, permafrost ground in an efficient way. The model contains tools to simulate frozen and unfrozen ground, snow, glaciers, and other massive ice bodies, as well as water bodies.
Olawale James Ikuyajolu, Luke Van Roekel, Steven R. Brus, Erin E. Thomas, Yi Deng, and Sarat Sreepathi
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1445–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1445-2023, 2023
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Wind-generated waves play an important role in modifying physical processes at the air–sea interface, but they have been traditionally excluded from climate models due to the high computational cost of running spectral wave models for climate simulations. To address this, our work identified and accelerated the computationally intensive section of WAVEWATCH III on GPU using OpenACC. This allows for high-resolution modeling of atmosphere–wave–ocean feedbacks in century-scale climate integrations.
Cas Renette, Kristoffer Aalstad, Juditha Aga, Robin Benjamin Zweigel, Bernd Etzelmüller, Karianne Staalesen Lilleøren, Ketil Isaksen, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 33–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-33-2023, 2023
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One of the reasons for lower ground temperatures in coarse, blocky terrain is a low or varying soil moisture content, which most permafrost modelling studies did not take into account. We used the CryoGrid community model to successfully simulate this effect and found markedly lower temperatures in well-drained, blocky deposits compared to other set-ups. The inclusion of this drainage effect is another step towards a better model representation of blocky mountain terrain in permafrost regions.
Anirudha Mahagaonkar, Geir Moholdt, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-4, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Surface meltwater lakes along the margins of the Antarctic Ice Sheet can be important for ice shelf dynamics and stability. We used optical satellite imagery to study seasonal evolution of meltwater lakes in Dronning Maud Land. We found large interannual variability in lake extents, but with consistent seasonal patterns. Although correlation with summer air temperature was strong locally, other climatic and environmental factors need to be considered to explain the large regional variability.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
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In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Juri Palmtag, Jaroslav Obu, Peter Kuhry, Andreas Richter, Matthias B. Siewert, Niels Weiss, Sebastian Westermann, and Gustaf Hugelius
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4095–4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4095-2022, 2022
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The northern permafrost region covers 22 % of the Northern Hemisphere and holds almost twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. This paper presents data from 651 soil pedons encompassing more than 6500 samples from 16 different study areas across the northern permafrost region. We use this dataset together with ESA's global land cover dataset to estimate soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage up to 300 cm soil depth, with estimated values of 813 Pg for carbon and 55 Pg for nitrogen.
Noah D. Smith, Eleanor J. Burke, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Julia Boike, Casper Tai Christiansen, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Friborg, Hanna Lee, Heather Rumbold, Rachael H. Turton, Sebastian Westermann, and Sarah E. Chadburn
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3603–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022, 2022
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The Arctic has large areas of small mounds that are caused by ice lifting up the soil. Snow blown by wind gathers in hollows next to these mounds, insulating them in winter. The hollows tend to be wetter, and thus the soil absorbs more heat in summer. The warm wet soil in the hollows decomposes, releasing methane. We have made a model of this, and we have tested how it behaves and whether it looks like sites in Scandinavia and Siberia. Sometimes we get more methane than a model without mounds.
Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Angela V. Gallego-Sala, Noah D. Smith, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Dan J. Charman, Julia Drewer, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Yao Gao, Mahdi Nakhavali, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Edward A. G. Schuur, and Sebastian Westermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1633–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022, 2022
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We present a new method to include peatlands in an Earth system model (ESM). Peatlands store huge amounts of carbon that accumulates very slowly but that can be rapidly destabilised, emitting greenhouse gases. Our model captures the dynamic nature of peat by simulating the change in surface height and physical properties of the soil as carbon is added or decomposed. Thus, we model, for the first time in an ESM, peat dynamics and its threshold behaviours that can lead to destabilisation.
Bernd Etzelmüller, Justyna Czekirda, Florence Magnin, Pierre-Allain Duvillard, Ludovic Ravanel, Emanuelle Malet, Andreas Aspaas, Lene Kristensen, Ingrid Skrede, Gudrun D. Majala, Benjamin Jacobs, Johannes Leinauer, Christian Hauck, Christin Hilbich, Martina Böhme, Reginald Hermanns, Harald Ø. Eriksen, Tom Rune Lauknes, Michael Krautblatter, and Sebastian Westermann
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 97–129, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-97-2022, 2022
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This paper is a multi-authored study documenting the possible existence of permafrost in permanently monitored rockslides in Norway for the first time by combining a multitude of field data, including geophysical surveys in rock walls. The paper discusses the possible role of thermal regime and rockslide movement, and it evaluates the possible impact of atmospheric warming on rockslide dynamics in Norwegian mountains.
Chao Yue, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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We use the ice sheet model PISM to estimate Vatnajökull mass balance under solar geoengineering. We find that Stratospheric aerosol injection at the rate of 5 Tg yr−1 reduces ice cap mass loss by 4 percentage points relative to the RCP4.5 scenario. Dynamic mass loss is a significant component of mass balance, but insensitive to climate forcing.
Léo C. P. Martin, Jan Nitzbon, Johanna Scheer, Kjetil S. Aas, Trond Eiken, Moritz Langer, Simon Filhol, Bernd Etzelmüller, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 3423–3442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3423-2021, 2021
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It is important to understand how permafrost landscapes respond to climate changes because their thaw can contribute to global warming. We investigate how a common permafrost morphology degrades using both field observations of the surface elevation and numerical modeling. We show that numerical models accounting for topographic changes related to permafrost degradation can reproduce the observed changes in nature and help us understand how parameters such as snow influence this phenomenon.
Chloé Scholzen, Thomas V. Schuler, and Adrien Gilbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 2719–2738, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2719-2021, 2021
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We use a two-dimensional model of water flow below the glaciers in Kongsfjord, Svalbard, to investigate how different processes of surface-to-bed meltwater transfer affect subglacial hydraulic conditions. The latter are important for the sliding motion of glaciers, which in some cases exhibit huge variations. Our findings indicate that the glaciers in our study area undergo substantial sliding because water is poorly evacuated from their base, with limited influence from the surface hydrology.
Juditha Undine Schmidt, Bernd Etzelmüller, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Florence Magnin, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 2491–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2491-2021, 2021
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This study presents rock surface temperatures (RSTs) of steep high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard from 2016 to 2020. The field data show that coastal cliffs are characterized by warmer RSTs than inland locations during winter seasons. By running model simulations, we analyze factors leading to that effect, calculate the surface energy balance and simulate different future scenarios. Both field data and model results can contribute to a further understanding of RST in high-Arctic rock walls.
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Hanna Lee, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Scott Lamoureux, Donald A. Walker, Sarah Chadburn, Erin Trochim, Lei Cai, Jan Nitzbon, Stephan Jacobi, and Moritz Langer
The Cryosphere, 15, 2451–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2451-2021, 2021
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Climate warming puts infrastructure built on permafrost at risk of failure. There is a growing need for appropriate model-based risk assessments. Here we present a modelling study and show an exemplary case of how a gravel road in a cold permafrost environment in Alaska might suffer from degrading permafrost under a scenario of intense climate warming. We use this case study to discuss the broader-scale applicability of our model for simulating future Arctic infrastructure failure.
Jan Nitzbon, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, and Julia Boike
The Cryosphere, 15, 1399–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021, 2021
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We used a numerical model to investigate how small-scale landscape heterogeneities affect permafrost thaw under climate-warming scenarios. Our results show that representing small-scale heterogeneities in the model can decide whether a landscape is water-logged or well-drained in the future. This in turn affects how fast permafrost thaws under warming. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering small-scale processes in model assessments of permafrost thaw under climate change.
Elena Barbaro, Krystyna Koziol, Mats P. Björkman, Carmen P. Vega, Christian Zdanowicz, Tonu Martma, Jean-Charles Gallet, Daniel Kępski, Catherine Larose, Bartłomiej Luks, Florian Tolle, Thomas V. Schuler, Aleksander Uszczyk, and Andrea Spolaor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3163–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3163-2021, 2021
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This paper shows the most comprehensive seasonal snow chemistry survey to date, carried out in April 2016 across 22 sites on 7 glaciers across Svalbard. The dataset consists of the concentration, mass loading, spatial and altitudinal distribution of major ion species (Ca2+, K+,
Na2+, Mg2+,
NH4+, SO42−,
Br−, Cl− and
NO3−), together with its stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition (δ18O and
δ2H) in the snowpack. This study was part of the larger Community Coordinated Snow Study in Svalbard.
Christian Zdanowicz, Jean-Charles Gallet, Mats P. Björkman, Catherine Larose, Thomas Schuler, Bartłomiej Luks, Krystyna Koziol, Andrea Spolaor, Elena Barbaro, Tõnu Martma, Ward van Pelt, Ulla Wideqvist, and Johan Ström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, 2021
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Black carbon (BC) aerosols are soot-like particles which, when transported to the Arctic, darken snow surfaces, thus indirectly affecting climate. Information on BC in Arctic snow is needed to measure their impact and monitor the efficacy of pollution-reduction policies. This paper presents a large new set of BC measurements in snow in Svalbard collected between 2007 and 2018. It describes how BC in snow varies across the archipelago and explores some factors controlling these variations.
Simone Maria Stuenzi, Julia Boike, William Cable, Ulrike Herzschuh, Stefan Kruse, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Sebastian Westermann, Evgenii S. Zakharov, and Moritz Langer
Biogeosciences, 18, 343–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-343-2021, 2021
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Boreal forests in eastern Siberia are an essential component of global climate patterns. We use a physically based model and field measurements to study the interactions between forests, permanently frozen ground and the atmosphere. We find that forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing snow cover dynamics and altering the surface energy balance, through absorbing most of the incoming solar radiation and suppressing below-canopy turbulent fluxes.
Lei Cai, Hanna Lee, Kjetil Schanke Aas, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 4611–4626, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4611-2020, 2020
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A sub-grid representation of excess ground ice in the Community Land Model (CLM) is developed as novel progress in modeling permafrost thaw and its impacts under the warming climate. The modeled permafrost degradation with sub-grid excess ice follows the pathway that continuous permafrost transforms into discontinuous permafrost before it disappears, including surface subsidence and talik formation, which are highly permafrost-relevant landscape changes excluded from most land models.
Andreas Alexander, Jaroslav Obu, Thomas V. Schuler, Andreas Kääb, and Hanne H. Christiansen
The Cryosphere, 14, 4217–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4217-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4217-2020, 2020
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In this study we present subglacial air, ice and sediment temperatures from within the basal drainage systems of two cold-based glaciers on Svalbard during late spring and the summer melt season. We put the data into the context of air temperature and rainfall at the glacier surface and show the importance of surface events on the subglacial thermal regime and erosion around basal drainage channels. Observed vertical erosion rates thereby reachup to 0.9 m d−1.
Aynom T. Teweldebrhan, Thomas V. Schuler, John F. Burkhart, and Morten Hjorth-Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4641–4658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, 2020
Ankit Pramanik, Jack Kohler, Katrin Lindbäck, Penelope How, Ward Van Pelt, Glen Liston, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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Freshwater discharge from tidewater glaciers influences fjord circulation and fjord ecosystem. Glacier hydrology plays crucial role in transporting water underneath glacier ice. We investigated hydrology beneath the tidewater glaciers of Kongsfjord basin in Northwest Svalbard and found that subglacial water flow differs substantially from surface flow of glacier ice. Furthermore, we derived freshwater discharge time-series from all the glaciers to the fjord.
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Short summary
Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice over a year) and runoff on Svalbard from 1991–2022, one of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. The simulations are created using the CryoGrid community model. We find a small overall loss of mass over the simulation period of −0.08 m yr−1 but with no statistically significant trend. The average runoff was found to be 41 Gt yr−1, with a significant increasing trend of 6.3 Gt per decade.
Here, we present high-resolution simulations of glacier mass balance (the gain and loss of ice...
