Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Oct 2022
Research article |
| 13 Oct 2022
| 13 Oct 2022
The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica
Jowan M. Barnes
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
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Ice calving is a recent inclusion in ice sheet models and there has not been a systematic test of how well it has been implemented. We show that models can accurately represent a given rate of ice calving, properties at the ice front evolve smoothly during calving, and that there are no consistent differences in ice behaviour between various approaches to representing calving in numerical ice models. This gives us confidence in their ability for use in sea level rise prediction simulations.
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Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
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Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
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The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Wai L. Woo, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 499–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-499-2023, 2023
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Bertie W. J. Miles, Chris R. Stokes, Adrian Jenkins, Jim R. Jordan, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, 2023
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Satellite observations have shown that the Shirase Glacier catchment in East Antarctica has been gaining mass over the past 2 decades, a trend largely attributed to increased snowfall. Our multi-decadal observations of Shirase Glacier show that ocean forcing has also contributed to some of this recent mass gain. This has been caused by strengthening easterly winds reducing the inflow of warm water underneath the Shirase ice tongue, causing the glacier to slow down and thicken.
Tom Mitcham, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, 2022
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We modelled the response of the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and its tributary glaciers to the calving of the A68 iceberg and validated our results with observations. We found that the impact was limited, confirming that mostly passive ice was calved. Through further calving experiments we quantified the total buttressing provided by the LCIS and found that over 80 % of the buttressing capacity is generated in the first 5 km of the ice shelf downstream of the grounding line.
Emily A. Hill, Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Matthew Collins
The Cryosphere, 15, 4675–4702, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021, 2021
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Using an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification methods, we provide probabilistic projections of future sea level rise from the Filchner–Ronne region of Antarctica. We find that it is most likely that this region will contribute negatively to sea level rise over the next 300 years, largely as a result of increased surface mass balance. We identify parameters controlling ice shelf melt and snowfall contribute most to uncertainties in projections.
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Short summary
Models must represent how glaciers slide along the bed, but there are many ways to do so. In this paper, several sliding laws are tested and found to affect different regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in different ways and at different speeds. However, the variability in ice volume loss due to sliding-law choices is low compared to other factors, so limited empirical knowledge of sliding does not prevent us from making predictions of how an ice sheet will evolve.
Models must represent how glaciers slide along the bed, but there are many ways to do so. In...
