Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-49-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Jan 2018
Research article |
| 09 Jan 2018
Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes
Werner M. J. Lazeroms
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Adrian Jenkins
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-57, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
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Glacial cycle duration changed from 41.000 to 100.000 years during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), but the cause is still under debate. We simulate the MPT with an ice-sheet model forced by prescribed CO2 and insolation, and simple ice-climate interactions. Before the MPT, glacial cycles follow insolation. After the MPT, low CO2 levels may compensate warming at insolation maxima, increasing the length of glacial cycles until the North American ice sheet becomes large and thereby unstable.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 1761–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1761-2024, 2024
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During Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets grew and melted, resulting in over 100 m of sea-level change. Studying the melting of past ice sheets can improve our understanding of how ice sheets might respond in the future. In this study, we find that melting increases due to proglacial lakes forming at the margins of the ice sheets, primarily due to the reduced basal friction of floating ice. Furthermore, bedrock uplift rates can strongly influence melting.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Adrian Jenkins, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1838, 2024
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Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica have been retreating and losing mass, but their future contribution to global sea level rise remains highly uncertain. We use an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification methods to evaluate the probable range of mass loss from this region for two future climate scenarios and find that the rate of ice loss until 2100 will likely remain similar to present-day observations, with little sensitivity to climate scenario over this short timeframe.
J. Rachel Carr, Emily A. Hill, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 2719–2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024, 2024
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The Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the world's largest glaciers and is melting quickly in response to climate change. It contains fast-flowing channels of ice that move ice from Greenland's centre to its coasts and allow Greenland to react quickly to climate warming. As a result, we want to predict how these glaciers will behave in the future, but there are lots of uncertainties. Here we assess the impacts of two main sources of uncertainties in glacier models.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
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Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Constantijn J. Berends, Victor Azizi, Jorge Bernales, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-5, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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Ice-sheet models are computer programs that can simulate how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will evolve in the future. The accuracy of these models depends on their resolution: how small the details are that the model can resolve. We have created a model with a variable resolution, which can resolve a lot of detail in areas where lots of changes happen in the ice, and less detail in areas where the ice does not move so much. This makes the model both accurate and fast.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 20, 257–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-257-2024, 2024
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Analysing simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability during the early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), we find that the ice sheet area adapts faster and more strongly than volume to climate change on quasi-orbital timescales. Considering the recent discovery that ice area, rather than volume, influences deep-ocean temperatures, this implies that the Miocene Antarctic Ice Sheet affects deep-ocean temperatures more than its volume suggests.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Caroline J. van Calcar, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas Blank, Bas de Boer, and Wouter van der Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5473–5492, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5473-2023, 2023
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The waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet caused the Earth’s surface to deform, which is stabilizing the ice sheet and mainly determined by the spatially variable viscosity of the mantle. Including this feedback in model simulations led to significant differences in ice sheet extent and ice thickness over the last glacial cycle. The results underline and quantify the importance of including this local feedback effect in ice sheet models when simulating the Antarctic ice sheet evolution.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
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The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
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We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Alice C. Frémand, Peter Fretwell, Julien A. Bodart, Hamish D. Pritchard, Alan Aitken, Jonathan L. Bamber, Robin Bell, Cesidio Bianchi, Robert G. Bingham, Donald D. Blankenship, Gino Casassa, Ginny Catania, Knut Christianson, Howard Conway, Hugh F. J. Corr, Xiangbin Cui, Detlef Damaske, Volkmar Damm, Reinhard Drews, Graeme Eagles, Olaf Eisen, Hannes Eisermann, Fausto Ferraccioli, Elena Field, René Forsberg, Steven Franke, Shuji Fujita, Yonggyu Gim, Vikram Goel, Siva Prasad Gogineni, Jamin Greenbaum, Benjamin Hills, Richard C. A. Hindmarsh, Andrew O. Hoffman, Per Holmlund, Nicholas Holschuh, John W. Holt, Annika N. Horlings, Angelika Humbert, Robert W. Jacobel, Daniela Jansen, Adrian Jenkins, Wilfried Jokat, Tom Jordan, Edward King, Jack Kohler, William Krabill, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Kirsty Langley, Joohan Lee, German Leitchenkov, Carlton Leuschen, Bruce Luyendyk, Joseph MacGregor, Emma MacKie, Kenichi Matsuoka, Mathieu Morlighem, Jérémie Mouginot, Frank O. Nitsche, Yoshifumi Nogi, Ole A. Nost, John Paden, Frank Pattyn, Sergey V. Popov, Eric Rignot, David M. Rippin, Andrés Rivera, Jason Roberts, Neil Ross, Anotonia Ruppel, Dustin M. Schroeder, Martin J. Siegert, Andrew M. Smith, Daniel Steinhage, Michael Studinger, Bo Sun, Ignazio Tabacco, Kirsty Tinto, Stefano Urbini, David Vaughan, Brian C. Welch, Douglas S. Wilson, Duncan A. Young, and Achille Zirizzotti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023
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This paper presents the release of over 60 years of ice thickness, bed elevation, and surface elevation data acquired over Antarctica by the international community. These data are a crucial component of the Antarctic Bedmap initiative which aims to produce a new map and datasets of Antarctic ice thickness and bed topography for the international glaciology and geophysical community.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Constantijn J. Berends, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets have a large effect on climate and vice versa. Here we use an ice sheet computer model to simulate the last glacial cycle and compare two methods, one that implicitly includes these feedbacks and one that does not. We found that when including simple climate feedbacks, the North American ice sheet develops from two domes instead of many small domes. Each ice sheet melts slower when including feedbacks. We attribute this difference mostly to air temperature–ice sheet interactions.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Wai L. Woo, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 499–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-499-2023, 2023
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Future ice loss from Antarctica could raise sea levels by several metres, and key to this is the rate at which the ocean melts the ice sheet from below. Existing methods for modelling this process are either computationally expensive or very simplified. We present a new approach using machine learning to mimic the melt rates calculated by an ocean model but in a fraction of the time. This approach may provide a powerful alternative to existing methods, without compromising on accuracy or speed.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Chris R. Stokes, Adrian Jenkins, Jim R. Jordan, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 445–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-445-2023, 2023
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Satellite observations have shown that the Shirase Glacier catchment in East Antarctica has been gaining mass over the past 2 decades, a trend largely attributed to increased snowfall. Our multi-decadal observations of Shirase Glacier show that ocean forcing has also contributed to some of this recent mass gain. This has been caused by strengthening easterly winds reducing the inflow of warm water underneath the Shirase ice tongue, causing the glacier to slow down and thicken.
Paul R. Holland, Gemma K. O'Connor, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Pierre Dutrieux, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Eric J. Steig, David P. Schneider, Adrian Jenkins, and James A. Smith
The Cryosphere, 16, 5085–5105, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022, 2022
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice, causing sea-level rise. However, it is not known whether human-induced climate change has contributed to this ice loss. In this study, we use evidence from climate models and palaeoclimate measurements (e.g. ice cores) to suggest that the ice loss was triggered by natural climate variations but is now sustained by human-forced climate change. This implies that future greenhouse-gas emissions may influence sea-level rise from Antarctica.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
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The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Jowan M. Barnes and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 16, 4291–4304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022, 2022
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Models must represent how glaciers slide along the bed, but there are many ways to do so. In this paper, several sliding laws are tested and found to affect different regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in different ways and at different speeds. However, the variability in ice volume loss due to sliding-law choices is low compared to other factors, so limited empirical knowledge of sliding does not prevent us from making predictions of how an ice sheet will evolve.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, Thomas J. Reerink, Lennert B. Stap, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5667–5688, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5667-2022, 2022
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The rate at which marine ice sheets such as the West Antarctic ice sheet will retreat in a warming climate and ocean is still uncertain. Numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physical equations that describe the way glaciers and ice sheets deform and flow, have been substantially improved in recent years. Here we present the results of several years of work on IMAU-ICE, an ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity, which can be used to study ice sheets of both the past and the future.
Lennert B. Stap, Constantijn J. Berends, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Edward G. W. Gasson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1315-2022, 2022
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To gain understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet responded to CO2 changes during past warm climate conditions, we simulate its variability during the Miocene. We include feedbacks between the ice sheet and atmosphere in our model and force the model using time-varying climate conditions. We find that these feedbacks reduce the amplitude of ice volume variations. Erosion-induced changes in the bedrock below the ice sheet that manifested during the Miocene also have a damping effect.
Tom Mitcham, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, 2022
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We modelled the response of the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and its tributary glaciers to the calving of the A68 iceberg and validated our results with observations. We found that the impact was limited, confirming that mostly passive ice was calved. Through further calving experiments we quantified the total buttressing provided by the LCIS and found that over 80 % of the buttressing capacity is generated in the first 5 km of the ice shelf downstream of the grounding line.
Emily A. Hill, Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Matthew Collins
The Cryosphere, 15, 4675–4702, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021, 2021
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Using an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification methods, we provide probabilistic projections of future sea level rise from the Filchner–Ronne region of Antarctica. We find that it is most likely that this region will contribute negatively to sea level rise over the next 300 years, largely as a result of increased surface mass balance. We identify parameters controlling ice shelf melt and snowfall contribute most to uncertainties in projections.
Constantijn J. Berends, Heiko Goelzer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2443–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2443-2021, 2021
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The largest uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise comes from ice-sheet retreat. To better understand how these ice sheets respond to the changing climate, ice-sheet models are used, which must be able to reproduce both their present and past evolution. We have created a model that is fast enough to simulate an ice sheet at a high resolution over the course of an entire 120 000-year glacial cycle. This allows us to study processes that cannot be captured by lower-resolution models.
Jowan M. Barnes, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Daniel Goldberg, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Mathieu Morlighem, and Jan De Rydt
The Cryosphere, 15, 1975–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, 2021
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Some properties of ice flow models must be initialised using observed data before they can be used to produce reliable predictions of the future. Different models have different ways of doing this, and the process is generally seen as being specific to an individual model. We compare the methods used by three different models and show that they produce similar outputs. We also demonstrate that the outputs from one model can be used in other models without introducing large uncertainties.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
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Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Bertie W. J. Miles, Jim R. Jordan, Chris R. Stokes, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Adrian Jenkins
The Cryosphere, 15, 663–676, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-663-2021, 2021
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We provide a historical overview of changes in Denman Glacier's flow speed, structure and calving events since the 1960s. Based on these observations, we perform a series of numerical modelling experiments to determine the likely cause of Denman's acceleration since the 1970s. We show that grounding line retreat, ice shelf thinning and the detachment of Denman's ice tongue from a pinning point are the most likely causes of the observed acceleration.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 17, 361–377, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-361-2021, 2021
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For the past 2.6 million years, the Earth has experienced glacial cycles, where vast ice sheets periodically grew to cover large parts of North America and Eurasia. In the earlier part of this period, this happened every 40 000 years. This value changed 1.2 million years ago to 100 000 years: the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. We investigate this interesting period using an ice-sheet model, studying the interactions between ice sheets and the global climate.
Jan De Rydt, Ronja Reese, Fernando S. Paolo, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 15, 113–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-113-2021, 2021
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We used satellite observations and numerical simulations of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, between 1996 and 2016 to show that the recent increase in its flow speed can only be reproduced by computer models if stringent assumptions are made about the material properties of the ice and its underlying bed. These assumptions are not commonly adopted in ice flow modelling, and our results therefore have implications for future simulations of Antarctic ice flow and sea level projections.
Kate Winter, Emily A. Hill, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and John Woodward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3453–3467, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3453-2020, 2020
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Satellite measurements of the English Coast in the Antarctic Peninsula reveal that glaciers are thinning and losing mass, but ice thickness data are required to assess these changes, in terms of ice flux and sea level contribution. Our ice-penetrating radar measurements reveal that low-elevation subglacial channels control fast-flowing ice streams, which release over 39 Gt of ice per year to floating ice shelves. This topography could make ice flows susceptible to future instability.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
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We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Heiko Goelzer, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, Bas de Boer, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 833–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-833-2020, 2020
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In our ice-sheet modelling experience and from exchange with colleagues in different groups, we found that it is not always clear how to calculate the sea-level contribution from a marine ice-sheet model. This goes hand in hand with a lack of documentation and transparency in the published literature on how the sea-level contribution is estimated in different models. With this brief communication, we hope to stimulate awareness and discussion in the community to improve on this situation.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 14, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-17-2020, 2020
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The flow of ice shelves is now known to be strongly affected by ocean tides, but the mechanism by which this happens is unclear. We use a viscoelastic model to try to reproduce observations of this behaviour on the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. We find that tilting of the ice shelf explains the short-period behaviour, while tidally induced movement of the grounding line (the boundary between grounded and floating ice) explains the more complex long-period response.
Jan De Rydt, Gudmundur Hilmar Gudmundsson, Thomas Nagler, and Jan Wuite
The Cryosphere, 13, 2771–2787, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2771-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2771-2019, 2019
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Two large icebergs are about to break off from the Brunt Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Rifting started several years ago and is now approaching its final phase. Satellite data and computer simulations show that over the past 2 decades, growth of the ice shelf has caused a build-up of forces within the ice, which culminated in its fracture. These natural changes in geometry coincided with large variations in flow speed, a process that is thought to be relevant for all Antarctic ice shelf margins.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, Aisling M. Dolan, Daniel J. Hill, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 15, 1603–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1603-2019, 2019
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The Late Pliocene, 3.65–2.75 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history that was warmer than the present. This makes it interesting for climatological research, because it provides a possible analogue for the near future. We used a coupled ice-sheet–climate model to simulate the behaviour of these systems during this period. We show that the warmest moment saw a sea-level rise of 8–14 m, with a CO2 concentration of 320–400 ppmv.
Lionel Favier, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Adrian Jenkins, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019
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The melting at the base of floating ice shelves is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet current retreat. Here, we use an ideal set-up to assess a wide range of melting parameterisations depending on oceanic properties with regard to a new ocean–ice-sheet coupled model, published here for the first time. A parameterisation that depends quadratically on thermal forcing in both a local and a non-local way yields the best results and needs to be further assessed with more realistic set-ups.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Chen Cheng, Adrian Jenkins, Paul R. Holland, Zhaomin Wang, Chengyan Liu, and Ruibin Xia
The Cryosphere, 13, 265–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, 2019
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The sub-ice platelet layer (SIPL) under fast ice is most prevalent in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Using a modified plume model, we investigated the responses of SIPL thickening rate and frazil concentration to variations in ice shelf water supercooling in McMurdo Sound. It would be key to parameterizing the relevant process in more complex three-dimensional, primitive equation ocean models, which relies on the knowledge of the suspended frazil size spectrum within the ice–ocean boundary layer.
Emily A. Hill, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, J. Rachel Carr, and Chris R. Stokes
The Cryosphere, 12, 3907–3921, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3907-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3907-2018, 2018
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Floating ice tongues in Greenland buttress inland ice, and their removal could accelerate ice flow. Petermann Glacier recently lost large sections of its ice tongue, but there was little glacier acceleration. Here, we assess the impact of future calving events on ice speeds. We find that removing the lower portions of the ice tongue does not accelerate flow. However, future iceberg calving closer to the grounding line could accelerate ice flow and increase ice discharge and sea level rise.
Constantijn J. Berends, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4657–4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4657-2018, 2018
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We have devised a novel way to couple a climate model to an ice-sheet model. Usually, climate models are too slow to simulate more than a few centuries, whereas our new model set-up can simulate a full 120 000-year ice age in about 12 h. This makes it possible to look at the interactions between global climate and ice sheets on long timescales, something which is relevant for both research into past climate and future projections.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
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Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Edward C. King, Jan De Rydt, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3361–3372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3361-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3361-2018, 2018
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Ice shelves are thick sheets of ice floating on the ocean off the coasts of Antarctica and Greenland. They help regulate the flow of ice off the continent. Ice shelves undergo a natural cycle of seaward flow, fracture, iceberg production and regrowth. The Brunt Ice Shelf recently developed two large cracks. We used ground-penetrating radar to find out how the internal structure of the ice might influence the present crack development and the future stability of the ice shelf.
Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3229–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, 2018
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Accurately representing grounding-line flux is essential for modelling the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Currently, in some large-scale ice-flow modelling studies a condition on ice flux across grounding lines is imposed using an analytically motivated parameterisation. Here we test this expression for Antarctic grounding lines and find that it provides inaccurate and partly unphysical estimates of ice flux for the highly buttressed ice streams.
Emily A. Hill, J. Rachel Carr, Chris R. Stokes, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3243–3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3243-2018, 2018
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The dynamic behaviour (i.e. acceleration and retreat) of outlet glaciers in northern Greenland remains understudied. Here, we provide a new long-term (68-year) record of terminus change. Overall, recent retreat rates (1995–2015) are higher than the last 47 years. Despite region-wide retreat, we found disparities in dynamic behaviour depending on terminus type; grounded glaciers accelerated and thinned following retreat, while glaciers with floating ice tongues were insensitive to recent retreat.
Sarah L. Bradley, Thomas J. Reerink, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel M. Helsen
Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018
Sebastian H. R. Rosier and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 1699–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1699-2018, 2018
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Ocean tides cause strong modulation of horizontal ice shelf flow, most notably at a fortnightly frequency that is absent in the vertical tidal forcing. We propose that tidal bending in the margins of the ice shelf produces sufficiently large stresses that the effective viscosity of ice in these regions is reduced during high and low tide. This effect can explain many features of the observed behaviour and implies that ice shelves in areas with strong tides move faster than they otherwise would.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Thomas Nagler, Jan Wuite, and Edward C. King
The Cryosphere, 12, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-505-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-505-2018, 2018
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We provide an unprecedented view into the dynamics of two active rifts in the Brunt Ice Shelf through a unique set of field observations, novel satellite data products, and a state-of-the-art ice flow model. We describe the evolution of fracture width and length in great detail, pushing the boundaries of both spatial and temporal coverage, and provide a deeper insight into the process of iceberg formation, which exerts an important control over the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
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This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matt A. King, Keith W. Nicholls, Keith Makinson, and Hugh F. J. Corr
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 849–860, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-849-2017, 2017
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Tides can affect the flow of ice at hourly to yearly timescales. In some cases the ice responds at a different frequency than is found in the tidal forcing; for example, on Rutford Ice Stream the strongest response is at a fortnightly period. A new compilation of GPS data across the Ronne Ice Shelf and adjoining ice streams shows that this fortnightly modulation in ice flow is found across the entire region. Measurements of this kind can provide insights into ice rheology and basal processes.
Lennert B. Stap, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Bas de Boer, Richard Bintanja, and Lucas J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 13, 1243–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1243-2017, 2017
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We show the results of transient simulations with a coupled climate–ice sheet model over the past 38 million years. The CO2 forcing of the model is inversely obtained from a benthic δ18O stack. These simulations enable us to study the influence of ice sheet variability on climate change on long timescales. We find that ice sheet–climate interaction strongly enhances Earth system sensitivity and polar amplification.
Michiel M. Helsen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas J. Reerink, Richard Bintanja, Marianne S. Madsen, Shuting Yang, Qiang Li, and Qiong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 11, 1949–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1949-2017, 2017
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Ice sheets reflect most incoming solar radiation back into space due to their high reflectivity (albedo). The albedo of ice sheets changes as a function of, for example, liquid water content and ageing of snow. In this study we have improved the description of albedo over the Greenland ice sheet in a global climate model. This is an important step, which also improves estimates of the annual ice mass gain or loss over the ice sheet using this global climate model.
Pierre Mathiot, Adrian Jenkins, Christopher Harris, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2849–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2849-2017, 2017
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
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ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
Markella Prokopiou, Patricia Martinerie, Célia J. Sapart, Emmanuel Witrant, Guillaume Monteil, Kentaro Ishijima, Sophie Bernard, Jan Kaiser, Ingeborg Levin, Thomas Blunier, David Etheridge, Ed Dlugokencky, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4539–4564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4539-2017, 2017
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Nitrous oxide is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an increasing mole fraction. To understand its natural and anthropogenic sources
we employ isotope measurements. Results show that while the N2O mole fraction increases, its heavy isotope content decreases. The isotopic changes observed underline the dominance of agricultural emissions especially at the early part of the record, whereas in the later decades the contribution from other anthropogenic sources increases.
Constantijn J. Berends and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4451–4460, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4451-2016, 2016
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This paper describes several improvements to the so-called "flood-fill algorithm" – a computer program widely known for its use in the "paint bucket" tool in several drawing programs such as MS Paint. However, it can also be used to determine the extent and depth of lakes in a topography map, which is useful in hydrology and climatology. In such cases, the default algorithm can be too slow to be of much use. Our improvements can make it up to 100 times faster, making it much more feasible.
Thomas J. Reerink, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4111–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4111-2016, 2016
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Ice sheets are part of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere and the ocean. OBLIMAP is a powerful tool to map climate fields between GCMs and ISMs (ice sheet models), which run on grids that differ in curvature, resolution and extent. OBLIMAP uses optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize area distortions. OBLIMAP 2.0 allows for high-frequency embedded coupling and masked mapping. A fast search strategy realizes a huge performance gain and enables high-resolution mapping.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
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Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
David H. Jones, Carl Robinson, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 5, 65–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-65-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-65-2016, 2016
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Long-term records from high-precision GPS receivers are essential for studying geophysical movement. Existing, commercially available, precision GPS receivers are not intended for long-term, autonomous deployment. We have designed a GPS receiver that is better suited for this application. In this paper, we discuss the receiver design and compare its performance with that of some of the commercially available receivers.
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
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We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, P. Kuipers Munneke, R. S. W. van de Wal, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 1831–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1831-2015, 2015
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We compare Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated polar version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and the previous version 2.1. RACMO2.3 has an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion favouring summer snowfall over rainfall. Enhanced summer snowfall reduce melt rates in the ablation zone by covering dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow. This improves the modelled SMB-elevation gradient and surface energy balance compared to observations in west Greenland.
S. H. R. Rosier, G. H. Gudmundsson, and J. A. M. Green
The Cryosphere, 9, 1649–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1649-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1649-2015, 2015
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We use a full-Stokes model to investigate the long period modulation of Rutford Ice Stream flow by the ocean tide. We find that using a nonlinear sliding law cannot fully explain the measurements and an additional mechanism, whereby tidally induced subglacial pressure variations are transmitted upstream from the grounding line, is also required to match the large amplitude and decay length scale of the observations.
D. H. Jones and G. H. Gudmundsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1243–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1243-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1243-2015, 2015
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Icebergs are a natural hazard to maritime operations in polar regions. Iceberg populations are increasing, as is the demand for access to both Arctic and Antarctic seas. Soon the ability to reliably track icebergs may become a necessity for continued operational safety. In this paper we describe the design of a tracking sensor that can be deployed from an aircraft during surveys of Antarctic icebergs, and detail the results of its first deployment operation on iceberg B-31.
L. G. van der Wel, H. A. Been, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and H. A. J. Meijer
The Cryosphere, 9, 1089–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1089-2015, 2015
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We performed 2H isotope diffusion measurements in the upper 3 metres of firn at Summit, Greenland, by following over a 4-year period isotope-enriched snow that we deposited.
We found that the diffusion process was much less rapid than in the most commonly used model. We discuss several aspects of the diffusion process that are still poorly constrained and might lead to this discrepancy. Quantitative knowledge of diffusion is necessary for use of the diffusion process itself as a climate proxy.
J. Wuite, H. Rott, M. Hetzenecker, D. Floricioiu, J. De Rydt, G. H. Gudmundsson, T. Nagler, and M. Kern
The Cryosphere, 9, 957–969, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-957-2015, 2015
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We present new analysis of satellite data showing the variability of glacier velocities in the Larsen B area, Antarctic Peninsula, back to 1995. Velocity data and estimates of ice thickness are used to derive ice discharge at different epochs. Velocities of the glaciers remain to date well above the velocities of the pre-collapse period. The response of individual glaciers differs, and velocities show significant temporal fluctuations, implying major variations in ice discharge and mass balance.
B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 9, 881–903, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-881-2015, 2015
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We present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an intercomparison project with six ice-sheet models. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of all models used here to simulate a significant retreat or re-advance of the East Antarctic ice grounding line. Improved grounding-line physics could be essential for a correct representation of the migration of the grounding line of the Antarctic ice sheet during the Pliocene.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
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This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
C. Martín, R. Mulvaney, G. H. Gudmundsson, and H. Corr
Clim. Past, 11, 547–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-547-2015, 2015
S. J. Koenig, A. M. Dolan, B. de Boer, E. J. Stone, D. J. Hill, R. M. DeConto, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. J. Lunt, D. Pollard, A. Quiquet, F. Saito, J. Savage, and R. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-369-2015, 2015
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The paper assess the Greenland Ice Sheet’s sensitivity to a warm period in the past, a time when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to current levels. We quantify ice sheet volume and locations in Greenland and find that the ice sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland.
P. M. Alexander, M. Tedesco, X. Fettweis, R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014
L. B. Stap, R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, R. Bintanja, and L. J. Lourens
Clim. Past, 10, 2135–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2135-2014, 2014
S. H. R. Rosier, G. H. Gudmundsson, and J. A. M. Green
The Cryosphere, 8, 1763–1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1763-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1763-2014, 2014
B. de Boer, P. Stocchi, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2141–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2141-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
R. Anderson, D. H. Jones, and G. H. Gudmundsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 917–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-917-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-917-2014, 2014
P. Dutrieux, D. G. Vaughan, H. F. J. Corr, A. Jenkins, P. R. Holland, I. Joughin, and A. H. Fleming
The Cryosphere, 7, 1543–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1543-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1543-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
G. H. Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 7, 647–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-647-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-647-2013, 2013
J. De Rydt, G. H. Gudmundsson, H. F. J. Corr, and P. Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 7, 407–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-407-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-407-2013, 2013
P. Fretwell, H. D. Pritchard, D. G. Vaughan, J. L. Bamber, N. E. Barrand, R. Bell, C. Bianchi, R. G. Bingham, D. D. Blankenship, G. Casassa, G. Catania, D. Callens, H. Conway, A. J. Cook, H. F. J. Corr, D. Damaske, V. Damm, F. Ferraccioli, R. Forsberg, S. Fujita, Y. Gim, P. Gogineni, J. A. Griggs, R. C. A. Hindmarsh, P. Holmlund, J. W. Holt, R. W. Jacobel, A. Jenkins, W. Jokat, T. Jordan, E. C. King, J. Kohler, W. Krabill, M. Riger-Kusk, K. A. Langley, G. Leitchenkov, C. Leuschen, B. P. Luyendyk, K. Matsuoka, J. Mouginot, F. O. Nitsche, Y. Nogi, O. A. Nost, S. V. Popov, E. Rignot, D. M. Rippin, A. Rivera, J. Roberts, N. Ross, M. J. Siegert, A. M. Smith, D. Steinhage, M. Studinger, B. Sun, B. K. Tinto, B. C. Welch, D. Wilson, D. A. Young, C. Xiangbin, and A. Zirizzotti
The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013
G. H. Gudmundsson, J. Krug, G. Durand, L. Favier, and O. Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 6, 1497–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1497-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1497-2012, 2012
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
R. S. W. van de Wal, B. de Boer, L. J. Lourens, P. Köhler, and R. Bintanja
Clim. Past, 7, 1459–1469, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-1459-2011, 2011
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal, and H. Pälike
Clim. Past, 7, 869–880, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-869-2011, 2011
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. R. van den Broeke, C. J. P. P. Smeets, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 377–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-377-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
T. J. Reerink, M. A. Kliphuis, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 13–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-13-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
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Two-dimensional numerical simulations of mixing under ice keels
Seasonal and diurnal variability of sub-ice platelet layer thickness in McMurdo Sound from electromagnetic induction sounding
Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model
The role of upper-ocean heat content in the regional variability of Arctic sea ice at sub-seasonal timescales
Fjord circulation induced by melting icebergs
Local forcing mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers
A method for constructing directional surface wave spectra from ICESat-2 altimetry
Modeling seasonal-to-decadal ocean–cryosphere interactions along the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica
A model for the Arctic mixed layer circulation under a summertime lead: implications for the near-surface temperature maximum formation
Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0)
Basal melt rates and ocean circulation under the Ryder Glacier ice tongue and their response to climate warming: a high-resolution modelling study
Underestimation of oceanic carbon uptake in the Arctic Ocean: ice melt as predictor of the sea ice carbon pump
Can rifts alter ocean dynamics beneath ice shelves?
Uncertainty analysis of single- and multiple-size-class frazil ice models
Impact of icebergs on the seasonal submarine melt of Sermeq Kujalleq
Large-eddy simulations of the ice-shelf–ocean boundary layer near the ice front of Nansen Ice Shelf, Antarctica
Reversal of ocean gyres near ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea caused by the interaction of sea ice and wind
Impact of freshwater runoff from the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet on fjord productivity since the late 19th century
The impact of tides on Antarctic ice shelf melting
Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice
The Antarctic Coastal Current in the Bellingshausen Sea
Modeling intensive ocean–cryosphere interactions in Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica
Wave–sea-ice interactions in a brittle rheological framework
Experimental evidence for a universal threshold characterizing wave-induced sea ice break-up
High-resolution simulations of interactions between surface ocean dynamics and frazil ice
Frazil ice growth and production during katabatic wind events in the Ross Sea, Antarctica
Drivers for Atlantic-origin waters abutting Greenland
Impact of West Antarctic ice shelf melting on Southern Ocean hydrography
Surface emergence of glacial plumes determined by fjord stratification
Review article: How does glacier discharge affect marine biogeochemistry and primary production in the Arctic?
Ice island thinning: rates and model calibration with in situ observations from Baffin Bay, Nunavut
Quantifying iceberg calving fluxes with underwater noise
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution
Towards a coupled model to investigate wave–sea ice interactions in the Arctic marginal ice zone
Exploring mechanisms responsible for tidal modulation in flow of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf
Wave energy attenuation in fields of colliding ice floes – Part 2: A laboratory case study
Melt at grounding line controls observed and future retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers
Spatiotemporal distributions of icebergs in a temperate fjord: Columbia Fjord, Alaska
Sensitivity of a calving glacier to ice–ocean interactions under climate change: new insights from a 3-D full-Stokes model
Brief communication: PICOP, a new ocean melt parameterization under ice shelves combining PICO and a plume model
Large spatial variations in the flux balance along the front of a Greenland tidewater glacier
Responses of sub-ice platelet layer thickening rate and frazil-ice concentration to variations in ice-shelf water supercooling in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
Modeling the effect of Ross Ice Shelf melting on the Southern Ocean in quasi-equilibrium
Seasonal dynamics of Totten Ice Shelf controlled by sea ice buttressing
William H. Lipscomb, David Behar, and Monica Ainhorn Morrison
The Cryosphere, 19, 793–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025, 2025
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As communities try to adapt to climate change, they look for "actionable science" that can inform decision-making. There are risks in relying on novel results that are not yet accepted by the science community. We propose a practical criterion for determining which scientific claims are actionable. We show how premature acceptance of sea-level-rise predictions can lead to confusion and backtracking, and we suggest best practices for communication between scientists and adaptation planners.
Irena Vaňková, Xylar Asay-Davis, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, Darin Comeau, Alexander Hager, Matthew Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Jonathan Wolfe
The Cryosphere, 19, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-507-2025, 2025
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We study the effect of subglacial discharge on basal melting for Antarctic ice shelves. We find that the results from previous studies of vertical ice fronts and two-dimensional ice tongues do not translate to the rotating ice-shelf framework. The melt rate dependence on discharge is stronger in the rotating framework. Further, there is a substantial melt-rate sensitivity to the location of the discharge along the grounding line relative to the directionality of the Coriolis force.
Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Chuan Xie, Xi Zhao, Chuning Wang, Heng Hu, and Yuanjie Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3786, 2025
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Global bottom water originates from high-salinity shelf water (HSSW), formed by intense sea ice production (SIP) in the Southern Ocean. This study uses numerical outputs of the Ross Sea to examine the extreme HSSW event in 2007, when atmospheric circulations enhanced SIP, resulting in the highest HSSW volume in a decade. However, salinity was low due to increased meltwater. The findings highlight the complex interplay between SIP and ice shelf melting, with key implications for ocean processes.
Jana Krause, Dustin Carroll, Juan Höfer, Jeremy Donaire, Eric P. Achterberg, Emilio Alarcón, Te Liu, Lorenz Meire, Kechen Zhu, and Mark J. Hopwood
The Cryosphere, 18, 5735–5752, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5735-2024, 2024
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Here we analysed calved ice samples from both the Arctic and Antarctic to assess the variability in the composition of iceberg meltwater. Our results suggest that low concentrations of nitrate and phosphate in ice are primarily from the ice matrix, whereas sediment-rich layers impart a low concentration of silica and modest concentrations of iron and manganese. At a global scale, there are very limited differences in the nutrient composition of ice.
Jérémie Bonneau, Bernard E. Laval, Derek Mueller, Yulia Antropova, and Andrew K. Hamilton
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3651, 2024
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Arctic glaciers and ice shelves are retreating due to warmer oceans, but the link between ocean warming and ice loss is complex. We used a numerical model to study these processes in Milne Fiord, a unique site with an ice shelf and a tidewater glacier. Our results show that submarine melting is an important thinning mechanism, and that glacier retreat will continue for decades. This research highlights the ongoing and future changes in Arctic ice structures.
Nicole Abib, David A. Sutherland, Rachel Peterson, Ginny Catania, Jonathan D. Nash, Emily L. Shroyer, Leigh A. Stearns, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 18, 4817–4829, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4817-2024, 2024
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The melting of ice mélange, or dense packs of icebergs and sea ice in glacial fjords, can influence the water column by releasing cold fresh water deep under the ocean surface. However, direct observations of this process have remained elusive. We use measurements of ocean temperature, salinity, and velocity bookending an episodic ice mélange event to show that this meltwater input changes the density profile of a glacial fjord and has implications for understanding tidewater glacier change.
Sam De Abreu, Rosalie M. Cormier, Mikhail G. Schee, Varvara E. Zemskova, Erica Rosenblum, and Nicolas Grisouard
The Cryosphere, 18, 3159–3176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3159-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3159-2024, 2024
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Arctic sea ice is becoming more mobile and thinner, which will affect the upper Arctic Ocean in unforeseen ways. Using numerical simulations, we find that mixing by ice keels (ridges underlying sea ice) depends significantly on their speeds and depths and the density structure of the upper ocean. Large uncertainties in our results highlight the need for more realistic numerical simulations and better measurements of ice keel characteristics.
Gemma M. Brett, Greg H. Leonard, Wolfgang Rack, Christian Haas, Patricia J. Langhorne, Natalie J. Robinson, and Anne Irvin
The Cryosphere, 18, 3049–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3049-2024, 2024
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Glacial meltwater with ice crystals flows from beneath ice shelves, causing thicker sea ice with sub-ice platelet layers (SIPLs) beneath. Thicker sea ice and SIPL reveal where and how much meltwater is outflowing. We collected continuous measurements of sea ice and SIPL. In winter, we observed rapid SIPL growth with strong winds. In spring, SIPLs grew when tides caused offshore circulation. Wind-driven and tidal circulation influence glacial meltwater outflow from ice shelf cavities.
Matthew J. Hoffman, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Darin Comeau, Alice Barthel, Stephen F. Price, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
The Cryosphere, 18, 2917–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2917-2024, 2024
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The Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica is susceptible to the intrusion of deep, warm ocean water that could increase the melting at the ice-shelf base by a factor of 10. We show that representing this potential melt regime switch in a low-resolution climate model requires careful treatment of iceberg melting and ocean mixing. We also demonstrate a possible ice-shelf melt domino effect where increased melting of nearby ice shelves can lead to the melt regime switch at Filchner–Ronne.
Elena Bianco, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simona Masina, Stefano Materia, and Paolo Ruggieri
The Cryosphere, 18, 2357–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024, 2024
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Changes in ocean heat transport and surface heat fluxes in recent decades have altered the Arctic Ocean heat budget and caused warming of the upper ocean. Using two eddy-permitting ocean reanalyses, we show that this has important implications for sea ice variability. In the Arctic regional seas, upper-ocean heat content acts as an important precursor for sea ice anomalies on sub-seasonal timescales, and this link has strengthened since the 2000s.
Kenneth G. Hughes
The Cryosphere, 18, 1315–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1315-2024, 2024
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A mathematical and conceptual model of how the melting of hundreds of icebergs generates currents within a fjord.
Alexander O. Hager, David A. Sutherland, and Donald A. Slater
The Cryosphere, 18, 911–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-911-2024, 2024
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Warming ocean temperatures cause considerable ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet; however climate models are unable to resolve the complex ocean processes within fjords that influence near-glacier ocean temperatures. Here, we use a computer model to test the accuracy of assumptions that allow climate and ice sheet models to project near-glacier ocean temperatures, and thus glacier melt, into the future. We then develop new methods that improve accuracy by accounting for local ocean processes.
Momme C. Hell and Christopher Horvat
The Cryosphere, 18, 341–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-341-2024, 2024
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Sea ice is heavily impacted by waves on its margins, and we currently do not have routine observations of waves in sea ice. Here we propose two methods to separate the surface waves from the sea-ice height observations along each ICESat-2 track using machine learning. Both methods together allow us to follow changes in the wave height through the sea ice.
Kazuya Kusahara, Daisuke Hirano, Masakazu Fujii, Alexander D. Fraser, Takeshi Tamura, Kohei Mizobata, Guy D. Williams, and Shigeru Aoki
The Cryosphere, 18, 43–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-43-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-43-2024, 2024
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This study focuses on the Totten and Moscow University ice shelves, East Antarctica. We used an ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model to better understand regional interactions between ocean, sea ice, and ice shelf. We found that a combination of warm ocean water and local sea ice production influences the regional ice shelf basal melting. Furthermore, the model reproduced the summertime undercurrent on the upper continental slope, regulating ocean heat transport onto the continental shelf.
Alberto Alvarez
The Cryosphere, 17, 3343–3361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3343-2023, 2023
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A near-surface temperature maximum (NSTM) layer is typically observed under different Arctic basins. Although its development seems to be related to solar heating in leads, its formation mechanism is under debate. This study uses numerical modeling in an idealized framework to demonstrate that the NSTM layer forms under a summer lead exposed to a combination of calm and moderate wind periods. Future warming of this layer could modify acoustic propagation with implications for marine mammals.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Jonathan Wiskandt, Inga Monika Koszalka, and Johan Nilsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 2755–2777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2755-2023, 2023
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Understanding ice–ocean interactions under floating ice tongues in Greenland and Antarctica is a major challenge in climate modelling and a source of uncertainty in future sea level projections. We use a high-resolution ocean model to investigate basal melting and melt-driven circulation under the floating tongue of Ryder Glacier, northwestern Greenland. We study the response to oceanic and atmospheric warming. Our results are universal and relevant for the development of climate models.
Benjamin Richaud, Katja Fennel, Eric C. J. Oliver, Michael D. DeGrandpre, Timothée Bourgeois, Xianmin Hu, and Youyu Lu
The Cryosphere, 17, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023, 2023
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Sea ice is a dynamic carbon reservoir. Its seasonal growth and melt modify the carbonate chemistry in the upper ocean, with consequences for the Arctic Ocean carbon sink. Yet, the importance of this process is poorly quantified. Using two independent approaches, this study provides new methods to evaluate the error in air–sea carbon flux estimates due to the lack of biogeochemistry in ice in earth system models. Those errors range from 5 % to 30 %, depending on the model and climate projection.
Mattia Poinelli, Michael Schodlok, Eric Larour, Miren Vizcaino, and Riccardo Riva
The Cryosphere, 17, 2261–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, 2023
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Rifts are fractures on ice shelves that connect the ice on top to the ocean below. The impact of rifts on ocean circulation below Antarctic ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve the presence of rifts. Our model simulations show that a kilometer-wide rift near the ice-shelf front modulates heat intrusion beneath the ice and inhibits basal melt. These processes are therefore worthy of further investigation.
Fabien Souillé, Cédric Goeury, and Rem-Sophia Mouradi
The Cryosphere, 17, 1645–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1645-2023, 2023
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Models that can predict temperature and ice crystal formation (frazil) in water are important for river and coastal engineering. Indeed, frazil has direct impact on submerged structures and often precedes the formation of ice cover. In this paper, an uncertainty analysis of two mathematical models that simulate supercooling and frazil is carried out within a probabilistic framework. The presented methodology offers new insight into the models and their parameterization.
Karita Kajanto, Fiammetta Straneo, and Kerim Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 17, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-371-2023, 2023
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Many outlet glaciers in Greenland are connected to the ocean by narrow glacial fjords, where warm water melts the glacier from underneath. Ocean water is modified in these fjords through processes that are poorly understood, particularly iceberg melt. We use a model to show how iceberg melt cools down Ilulissat Icefjord and causes circulation to take place deeper in the fjord than if there were no icebergs. This causes the glacier to melt less and from a smaller area than without icebergs.
Ji Sung Na, Taekyun Kim, Emilia Kyung Jin, Seung-Tae Yoon, Won Sang Lee, Sukyoung Yun, and Jiyeon Lee
The Cryosphere, 16, 3451–3468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3451-2022, 2022
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Beneath the Antarctic ice shelf, sub-ice-shelf plume flow that can cause turbulent mixing exists. In this study, we investigate how this flow affects ocean dynamics and ice melting near the ice front. Our results obtained by validated simulation show that higher turbulence intensity results in vigorous ice melting due to the high heat entrainment. Moreover, this flow with meltwater created by this flow highly affects the ocean overturning circulations near the ice front.
Yixi Zheng, David P. Stevens, Karen J. Heywood, Benjamin G. M. Webber, and Bastien Y. Queste
The Cryosphere, 16, 3005–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3005-2022, 2022
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New observations reveal the Thwaites gyre in a habitually ice-covered region in the Amundsen Sea for the first time. This gyre rotates anticlockwise, despite the wind here favouring clockwise gyres like the Pine Island Bay gyre – the only other ocean gyre reported in the Amundsen Sea. We use an ocean model to suggest that sea ice alters the wind stress felt by the ocean and hence determines the gyre direction and strength. These processes may also be applied to other gyres in polar oceans.
Mimmi Oksman, Anna Bang Kvorning, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Kristian Kjellerup Kjeldsen, Kenneth David Mankoff, William Colgan, Thorbjørn Joest Andersen, Niels Nørgaard-Pedersen, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Naja Mikkelsen, and Sofia Ribeiro
The Cryosphere, 16, 2471–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2471-2022, 2022
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One of the questions facing the cryosphere community today is how increasing runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet impacts marine ecosystems. To address this, long-term data are essential. Here, we present multi-site records of fjord productivity for SW Greenland back to the 19th century. We show a link between historical freshwater runoff and productivity, which is strongest in the inner fjord – influenced by marine-terminating glaciers – where productivity has increased since the late 1990s.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Matt A. King, and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, 2022
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Tidal currents may play an important role in Antarctic ice sheet retreat by changing the rate at which the ocean melts glaciers. Here, using a computational ocean model, we derive the first estimate of present-day tidal melting that covers all of Antarctica. Our results suggest that large-scale ocean models aiming to accurately predict ice melt rates will need to account for the effects of tides. The inclusion of tide-induced friction at the ice–ocean interface should be prioritized.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
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Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
Ryan Schubert, Andrew F. Thompson, Kevin Speer, Lena Schulze Chretien, and Yana Bebieva
The Cryosphere, 15, 4179–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4179-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4179-2021, 2021
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The Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC) is an ocean current found along the coast of Antarctica. Using measurements of temperature and salinity collected by instrumented seals, the AACC is shown to be a continuous circulation feature throughout West Antarctica. Due to its proximity to the coast, the AACC's structure influences oceanic melting of West Antarctic ice shelves. These melt rates impact the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with global implications for future sea level change.
Kazuya Kusahara, Daisuke Hirano, Masakazu Fujii, Alexander D. Fraser, and Takeshi Tamura
The Cryosphere, 15, 1697–1717, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1697-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1697-2021, 2021
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We used an ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model with a 2–3 km horizontal resolution to investigate ocean–ice shelf/glacier interactions in Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. The numerical model reproduced the observed warm water intrusion along the deep trough in the bay. We examined in detail (1) water mass changes between the upper continental slope and shelf regions and (2) the fast-ice role in the ocean conditions and basal melting at the Shirase Glacier tongue.
Guillaume Boutin, Timothy Williams, Pierre Rampal, Einar Olason, and Camille Lique
The Cryosphere, 15, 431–457, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-431-2021, 2021
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In this study, we investigate the interactions of surface ocean waves with sea ice. We focus on the evolution of sea ice after it has been fragmented by the waves. Fragmented sea ice is expected to experience less resistance to deformation. We reproduce this evolution using a new coupling framework between a wave model and the recently developed sea ice model neXtSIM. We find that waves can significantly increase the mobility of compact sea ice over wide areas in the wake of storm events.
Joey J. Voermans, Jean Rabault, Kirill Filchuk, Ivan Ryzhov, Petra Heil, Aleksey Marchenko, Clarence O. Collins III, Mohammed Dabboor, Graig Sutherland, and Alexander V. Babanin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4265–4278, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4265-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4265-2020, 2020
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In this work we demonstrate the existence of an observational threshold which identifies when waves are most likely to break sea ice. This threshold is based on information from two recent field campaigns, supplemented with existing observations of sea ice break-up. We show that both field and laboratory observations tend to converge to a single quantitative threshold at which the wave-induced sea ice break-up takes place, which opens a promising avenue for operational forecasting models.
Agnieszka Herman, Maciej Dojczman, and Kamila Świszcz
The Cryosphere, 14, 3707–3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3707-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3707-2020, 2020
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Under typical conditions favorable for sea ice formation in many regions (strong wind and waves, low air temperature), ice forms not at the sea surface but within the upper, turbulent layer of the ocean. Although interactions between ice and ocean dynamics are very important for the evolution of sea ice cover, many aspects of them are poorly understood. We use a numerical model to analyze three-dimensional water circulation and ice transport and show that ice strongly modifies that circulation.
Lisa Thompson, Madison Smith, Jim Thomson, Sharon Stammerjohn, Steve Ackley, and Brice Loose
The Cryosphere, 14, 3329–3347, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3329-2020, 2020
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The offshore winds around Antarctica can reach hurricane strength and produce intense cooling, causing the surface ocean to form a slurry of seawater and ice crystals. For the first time, we observed a buildup of heat and salt in the surface ocean, caused by loose ice crystal formation. We conclude that up to 1 m of ice was formed per day by the intense cooling, suggesting that unconsolidated crystals may be an important part of the total freezing that happens around Antarctica.
Laura C. Gillard, Xianmin Hu, Paul G. Myers, Mads Hvid Ribergaard, and Craig M. Lee
The Cryosphere, 14, 2729–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2729-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2729-2020, 2020
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Greenland's glaciers in contact with the ocean drain the majority of the ice sheet (GrIS). Deep troughs along the shelf branch into fjords, connecting glaciers with ocean waters. The heat from the ocean entering deep troughs may then accelerate the mass loss. Onshore heat transport through troughs was investigated with an ocean model. Processes that drive the delivery of ocean heat respond differently by region to increasing GrIS meltwater, mean circulation, and filtering out of storms.
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Ralph Timmermann, and Hartmut H. Hellmer
The Cryosphere, 14, 2205–2216, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2205-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2205-2020, 2020
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Previous studies have shown accelerations of West Antarctic glaciers, implying that basal melt rates of these glaciers were small and increased in the middle of the 20th century. We conduct coupled sea ice–ice shelf–ocean simulations with different levels of ice shelf melting from West Antarctic glaciers. This study reveals how far and how quickly glacial meltwater from ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas propagates downstream into the Ross Sea and along the East Antarctic coast.
Eva De Andrés, Donald A. Slater, Fiamma Straneo, Jaime Otero, Sarah Das, and Francisco Navarro
The Cryosphere, 14, 1951–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1951-2020, 2020
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Buoyant plumes at tidewater glaciers result from localized subglacial discharges of surface melt. They promote glacier submarine melting and influence the delivery of nutrients to the fjord's surface waters. Combining plume theory with observations, we have found that increased fjord stratification, which is due to larger meltwater content, prevents the vertical growth of the plume and buffers submarine melting. We discuss the implications for nutrient fluxes, CO2 trapping and water export.
Mark J. Hopwood, Dustin Carroll, Thorben Dunse, Andy Hodson, Johnna M. Holding, José L. Iriarte, Sofia Ribeiro, Eric P. Achterberg, Carolina Cantoni, Daniel F. Carlson, Melissa Chierici, Jennifer S. Clarke, Stefano Cozzi, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Juul-Pedersen, Mie H. S. Winding, and Lorenz Meire
The Cryosphere, 14, 1347–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1347-2020, 2020
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Here we compare and contrast results from five well-studied Arctic field sites in order to understand how glaciers affect marine biogeochemistry and marine primary production. The key questions are listed as follows. Where and when does glacial freshwater discharge promote or reduce marine primary production? How does spatio-temporal variability in glacial discharge affect marine primary production? And how far-reaching are the effects of glacial discharge on marine biogeochemistry?
Anna J. Crawford, Derek Mueller, Gregory Crocker, Laurent Mingo, Luc Desjardins, Dany Dumont, and Marcel Babin
The Cryosphere, 14, 1067–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1067-2020, 2020
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Large tabular icebergs (
ice islands) are symbols of climate change as well as marine hazards. We measured thickness along radar transects over two visits to a 14 km2 Arctic ice island and left automated equipment to monitor surface ablation and thickness over 1 year. We assess variation in thinning rates and calibrate an ice–ocean melt model with field data. Our work contributes to understanding ice island deterioration via logistically complex fieldwork in a remote environment.
Oskar Glowacki and Grant B. Deane
The Cryosphere, 14, 1025–1042, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1025-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1025-2020, 2020
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Marine-terminating glaciers are shrinking rapidly in response to the warming climate and thus provide large quantities of fresh water to the ocean system. However, accurate estimates of ice loss at the ice–ocean boundary are difficult to obtain. Here we demonstrate that ice mass loss from iceberg break-off (calving) can be measured by analyzing the underwater noise generated as icebergs impact the sea surface.
Donald A. Slater, Denis Felikson, Fiamma Straneo, Heiko Goelzer, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Xavier Fettweis, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020, 2020
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Changes in the ocean around Greenland play an important role in determining how much the ice sheet will contribute to global sea level over the coming century. However, capturing these links in models is very challenging. This paper presents a strategy enabling an ensemble of ice sheet models to feel the effect of the ocean for the first time and should therefore result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.
Guillaume Boutin, Camille Lique, Fabrice Ardhuin, Clément Rousset, Claude Talandier, Mickael Accensi, and Fanny Girard-Ardhuin
The Cryosphere, 14, 709–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-709-2020, 2020
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We investigate the interactions of surface ocean waves with sea ice taking place at the interface between the compact sea ice cover and the open ocean. We use a newly developed coupling framework between a wave and an ocean–sea ice numerical model. Our results show how the push on sea ice exerted by waves changes the amount and the location of sea ice melting, with a strong impact on the ocean surface properties close to the ice edge.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 14, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-17-2020, 2020
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The flow of ice shelves is now known to be strongly affected by ocean tides, but the mechanism by which this happens is unclear. We use a viscoelastic model to try to reproduce observations of this behaviour on the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica. We find that tilting of the ice shelf explains the short-period behaviour, while tidally induced movement of the grounding line (the boundary between grounded and floating ice) explains the more complex long-period response.
Agnieszka Herman, Sukun Cheng, and Hayley H. Shen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2901–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2901-2019, 2019
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Sea ice interactions with waves are extensively studied in recent years, but mechanisms leading to wave energy attenuation in sea ice remain poorly understood. One of the reasons limiting progress in modelling is a lack of observational data for model validation. The paper presents an analysis of laboratory observations of waves propagating in colliding ice floes. We show that wave attenuation is sensitive to floe size and wave period. A numerical model is calibrated to reproduce this behaviour.
David A. Lilien, Ian Joughin, Benjamin Smith, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2817–2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2817-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2817-2019, 2019
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We used a number of computer simulations to understand the recent retreat of a rapidly changing group of glaciers in West Antarctica. We found that significant melt underneath the floating extensions of the glaciers, driven by relatively warm ocean water at depth, was likely needed to cause the large retreat that has been observed. If melt continues around current rates, retreat is likely to continue through the coming century and extend beyond the present-day drainage area of these glaciers.
Sarah U. Neuhaus, Slawek M. Tulaczyk, and Carolyn Branecky Begeman
The Cryosphere, 13, 1785–1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1785-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1785-2019, 2019
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Relatively few studies have been carried out on icebergs inside fjords, despite the fact that the majority of recent sea level rise has resulted from glaciers terminating in fjords. We examine the size and spatial distribution of icebergs in Columbia Fjord, Alaska, over a period of 8 months to determine their influence on fjord dynamics.
Joe Todd, Poul Christoffersen, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, and Douglas I. Benn
The Cryosphere, 13, 1681–1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019, 2019
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The Greenland Ice Sheet loses 30 %–60 % of its ice due to iceberg calving. Calving processes and their links to climate are not well understood or incorporated into numerical models of glaciers. Here we use a new 3-D calving model to investigate calving at Store Glacier, West Greenland, and test its sensitivity to increased submarine melting and reduced support from ice mélange (sea ice and icebergs). We find Store remains fairly stable despite these changes, but less so in the southern side.
Tyler Pelle, Mathieu Morlighem, and Johannes H. Bondzio
The Cryosphere, 13, 1043–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1043-2019, 2019
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How ocean-induced melt under floating ice shelves will change as ocean currents evolve remains a big uncertainty in projections of sea level rise. In this study, we combine two of the most recently developed melt models to form PICOP, which overcomes the limitations of past models and produces accurate ice shelf melt rates. We find that our model is easy to set up and computationally efficient, providing researchers an important tool to improve the accuracy of their future glacial projections.
Till J. W. Wagner, Fiamma Straneo, Clark G. Richards, Donald A. Slater, Laura A. Stevens, Sarah B. Das, and Hanumant Singh
The Cryosphere, 13, 911–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-911-2019, 2019
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This study shows how complex and varied the processes are that determine the frontal position of tidewater glaciers. Rather than uniform melt or calving rates, a single (medium-sized) glacier can feature regions that retreat almost exclusively due to melting and other regions that retreat only due to calving. This has far-reaching consequences for our understanding of how glaciers retreat or advance.
Chen Cheng, Adrian Jenkins, Paul R. Holland, Zhaomin Wang, Chengyan Liu, and Ruibin Xia
The Cryosphere, 13, 265–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-265-2019, 2019
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The sub-ice platelet layer (SIPL) under fast ice is most prevalent in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Using a modified plume model, we investigated the responses of SIPL thickening rate and frazil concentration to variations in ice shelf water supercooling in McMurdo Sound. It would be key to parameterizing the relevant process in more complex three-dimensional, primitive equation ocean models, which relies on the knowledge of the suspended frazil size spectrum within the ice–ocean boundary layer.
Xiying Liu
The Cryosphere, 12, 3033–3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3033-2018, 2018
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Numerical experiments have been performed to study the effect of basal melting of the Ross Ice Shelf on the ocean southward of 35° S. It is shown that the melt rate averaged over the entire Ross Ice Shelf is 0.253 m year-1, which is associated with a freshwater flux of 3150 m3 s-1. The extra freshwater flux decreases the salinity in the Southern Ocean substantially, leading to anomalies in circulation, sea ice, and heat transport in certain parts of the ocean.
Chad A. Greene, Duncan A. Young, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Donald D. Blankenship
The Cryosphere, 12, 2869–2882, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2869-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2869-2018, 2018
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We show that Totten Ice Shelf accelerates each spring in response to the breakup of seasonal landfast sea ice at the ice shelf calving front. The previously unreported seasonal flow variability may have aliased measurements in at least one previous study of Totten's response to ocean forcing on interannual timescales. The role of sea ice in buttressing the flow of the ice shelf implies that long-term changes in sea ice cover could have impacts on the mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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Short summary
Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to sea-level rise. Here, we investigate a new basal melt model based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. For the first time, this model is applied to all Antarctic ice shelves. The model results in a realistic melt-rate pattern given suitable data for the topography and ocean temperature, making it a promising tool for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Basal melting of ice shelves is a major factor in the decline of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which...
