Articles | Volume 19, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Apr 2025
Research article |
| 23 Apr 2025
| 23 Apr 2025
Glacier damage evolution over ice flow timescales
Meghana Ranganathan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, IL, USA
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Alexander A. Robel
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Alexander Huth
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Ravindra Duddu
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Lizz Ultee, Helene Seroussi, Andrew F. Thompson, Lars Ackerman, Youngmin Choi, and Uta Krebs-Kanzow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4067, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how random variations in climate may influence future ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that random climate variations are important for predicting future ice loss from the entire Greenland Ice Sheet over the next 20–30 years, but relatively unimportant after that period. Thus, uncertainty in sea level projections from the effect of climate variability on Greenland may play a role in coastal decision-making about sea level rise over the next few decades.
Jason M. Amundson, Alexander A. Robel, Justin C. Burton, and Kavinda Nissanka
The Cryosphere, 19, 19–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-19-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-19-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Some fjords contain dense packs of icebergs referred to as ice mélange. Ice mélange can affect the stability of marine-terminating glaciers by resisting the calving of new icebergs and by modifying fjord currents and water properties. We have developed the first numerical model of ice mélange that captures its granular nature and that is suitable for long-timescale simulations. The model is capable of explaining why some glaciers are more strongly influenced by ice mélange than others.
Samuel T. Kodama, Tamara Pico, Alexander A. Robel, John Erich Christian, Natalya Gomez, Casey Vigilia, Evelyn Powell, Jessica Gagliardi, Slawek Tulaczyk, and Terrence Blackburn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3465, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial isostatic adjustment (gravitational, rotational, and solid Earth responses to changes in ice load) slows the retreat of marine-terminating ice sheets. However, the models that reveal this interaction use coarse resolution bathymetry, missing potential impacts of small length scale topographic highs. We pair a high-resolution bathymetry model with a simple model of grounding line stability to predict zones of potential grounding line stability in the Ross Sea over the past deglaciation.
Theo Clayton, Ravindra Duddu, Tim Hageman, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 5573–5593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and validate new analytical solutions that quantitatively consider how the properties of ice vary along the depth of ice shelves and that can be readily used in existing ice sheet models. Depth-varying firn properties are found to have a profound impact on ice sheet fracture and calving events. Our results show that grounded glaciers are less vulnerable than previously anticipated, while floating ice shelves are significantly more vulnerable to fracture and calving.
Tim Hageman, Jessica Mejía, Ravindra Duddu, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 3991–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.
Madeline S. Mamer, Alexander A. Robel, Chris C. K. Lai, Earle Wilson, and Peter Washam
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1970, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we simulate estuary-like seawater intrusions into the subglacial hydrologic system for marine outlet glaciers. We find the largest controls on seawater intrusion are the subglacial space geometry and meltwater discharge velocity. Further, we highlight the importance of extending ocean-forced ice loss to grounded portions of the ice sheet, which is currently not represented in models coupling ice sheets to ocean dynamics.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander Robel, and Helene Seroussi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1435, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Lizz Ultee, Alexander A. Robel, and Stefano Castruccio
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1041–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1041-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The surface mass balance (SMB) of an ice sheet describes the net gain or loss of mass from ice sheets (such as those in Greenland and Antarctica) through interaction with the atmosphere. We developed a statistical method to generate a wide range of SMB fields that reflect the best understanding of SMB processes. Efficiently sampling the variability of SMB will help us understand sources of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections.
Vincent Verjans, Alexander A. Robel, Helene Seroussi, Lizz Ultee, and Andrew F. Thompson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8269–8293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the development of the first large-scale ice sheet model that accounts for stochasticity in a range of processes. Stochasticity allows the impacts of inherently uncertain processes on ice sheets to be represented. This includes climatic uncertainty, as the climate is inherently chaotic. Furthermore, stochastic capabilities also encompass poorly constrained glaciological processes that display strong variability at fine spatiotemporal scales. We present the model and test experiments.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, and Ginny Catania
The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers have recently retreated dramatically, but the role of anthropogenic forcing remains uncertain. We use idealized model simulations to develop a framework for assessing the probability of rapid retreat in the context of natural climate variability. Our analyses show that century-scale anthropogenic trends can substantially increase the probability of retreats. This provides a roadmap for future work to formally assess the role of human activity in recent glacier change.
Alexander A. Robel, Earle Wilson, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 16, 451–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Warm seawater may intrude as a thin layer below glaciers in contact with the ocean. Mathematical theory predicts that this intrusion may extend over distances of kilometers under realistic conditions. Computer models demonstrate that if this warm seawater causes melting of a glacier bottom, it can cause rates of glacier ice loss and sea level rise to be up to 2 times faster in response to potential future ocean warming.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Alexander A. Robel, Christian Schoof, and Eli Tziperman
The Cryosphere, 10, 1883–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1883-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet edge that rest on upward-sloping beds have the potential to collapse irreversibly and raise global sea level. Using a numerical model, we show that changes in the slipperiness of sediments beneath fast-flowing ice streams can cause them to persist on upward-sloping beds for hundreds to thousands of years before reversing direction. This type of behavior is important to consider as a possibility when interpreting observations of ongoing ice sheet change.
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Numerical Modelling
Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
Two-way coupling between ice flow and channelized subglacial drainage enhances modeled marine-ice-sheet retreat
Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations
Calving from horizontal forces in a revised crevasse-depth framework
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations
Analytical solutions for the advective–diffusive ice column in the presence of strain heating
Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes
Improved basal drag of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from L-curve analysis of inverse models utilizing subglacial hydrology simulations
Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios
Disentangling the drivers behind the post-2000 retreat of Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland (Jakobshavn Isbrae)
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift
Modeling the timing of Patagonian Ice Sheet retreat in the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka
Using specularity content to evaluate eight geothermal heat flow maps of Totten Glacier
Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not
Regularization and L-curves in ice sheet inverse models: a case study in the Filchner–Ronne catchment
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry
Geothermal heat flux is the dominant source of uncertainty in englacial-temperature-based dating of ice rise formation
Improving interpretation of sea-level projections through a machine-learning-based local explanation approach
Subglacial hydrology modulates basal sliding response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing
The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica
Simulations of firn processes over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets: 1980–2021
Evaluation of six geothermal heat flux maps for the Antarctic Lambert–Amery glacial system
Impact of runoff temporal distribution on ice dynamics
Can changes in deformation regimes be inferred from crystallographic preferred orientations in polar ice?
Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Effective coefficient of diffusion and permeability of firn at Dome C and Lock In, Antarctica, and of various snow types – estimates over the 100–850 kg m−3 density range
The instantaneous impact of calving and thinning on the Larsen C Ice Shelf
Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier
A comparison of the stability and performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers
A new vertically integrated MOno-Layer Higher-Order (MOLHO) ice flow model
On the contribution of grain boundary sliding type creep to firn densification – an assessment using an optimization approach
Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model
The transferability of adjoint inversion products between different ice flow models
Inferring the basal sliding coefficient field for the Stokes ice sheet model under rheological uncertainty
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Sensitivity of ice sheet surface velocity and elevation to variations in basal friction and topography in the full Stokes and shallow-shelf approximation frameworks using adjoint equations
Quantifying the effect of ocean bed properties on ice sheet geometry over 40 000 years with a full-Stokes model
Bayesian calibration of firn densification models
A kinematic formalism for tracking ice–ocean mass exchange on the Earth's surface and estimating sea-level change
Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)
Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100
Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations
Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ during the 21st century
Development of physically based liquid water schemes for Greenland firn-densification models
Regional grid refinement in an Earth system model: impacts on the simulated Greenland surface mass balance
initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6
Modeling the response of northwest Greenland to enhanced ocean thermal forcing and subglacial discharge
Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet–atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
George Lu and Jonathan Kingslake
The Cryosphere, 18, 5301–5321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water below ice sheets affects ice-sheet motion, while the evolution of ice sheets likewise affects the water below. We create a model that allows for water and ice to affect each other and use it to see how this coupling or lack thereof may impact ice-sheet retreat. We find that coupling an evolving water system with the ice sheet results in more retreat than if we assume unchanging conditions under the ice, which indicates a need to better represent the effects of water in ice-sheet models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
Donald A. Slater and Till J. W. Wagner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2927, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calving is when icebergs break off glaciers and fall into the ocean. It is an important process determining how ice sheets will respond to change in climate, but it is currently poorly understood and hard to include in numerical models that are used for sea level projections. We revised an existing theory for how this process works, overcoming shortcomings of the existing theory and explaining observations showing that calving style depends on how thick the ice is.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Tim Hageman, Jessica Mejía, Ravindra Duddu, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 3991–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.
Lea-Sophie Höyns, Thomas Kleiner, Andreas Rademacher, Martin Rückamp, Michael Wolovick, and Angelika Humbert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1251, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers' sliding over bedrock is governed by water pressure in the hydrological system underneath the glacier and the roughness of the land underneath the glacier. We estimate this roughness using a modelling approach, which optimises this unknown parameter. The water pressure is simulated, too, which improves the robustness of the computed drag at the ice sheet base. We provide this data to other modellers and scientists doing geophysical field observations.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Adrian Jenkins, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1838, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica have been retreating and losing mass, but their future contribution to global sea level rise remains highly uncertain. We use an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification methods to evaluate the probable range of mass loss from this region for two future climate scenarios and find that the rate of ice loss until 2100 will likely remain similar to present-day observations, with little sensitivity to climate scenario over this short timeframe.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander Robel, and Helene Seroussi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1435, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the retreat history of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) across the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka. These results improve our understanding of the response of the PIS to deglacial warming and the patterns of deglacial ice margin retreat where gaps in the geologic record still exist, and they indicate that changes in large-scale precipitation during the last deglaciation played an important role in modulating the response of ice margin change across the PIS to deglacial warming.
Yan Huang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Yiliang Ma, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 18, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important factor affecting the basal thermal environment of an ice sheet and crucial for its dynamics. But it is poorly defined for the Antarctic ice sheet. We simulate the basal temperature and basal melting rate with eight different GHF datasets. We use specularity content as a two-sided constraint to discriminate between local wet or dry basal conditions. Two medium-magnitude GHF distribution maps rank well, showing that most of the inland bed area is frozen.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Michael Wolovick, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, and Martin Rückamp
The Cryosphere, 17, 5027–5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The friction underneath ice sheets can be inferred from observed velocity at the top, but this inference requires smoothing. The selection of smoothing has been highly variable in the literature. Here we show how to rigorously select the best smoothing, and we show that the inferred friction converges towards the best knowable field as model resolution improves. We use this to learn about the best description of basal friction and to formulate recommended best practices for other modelers.
Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck
The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Aleksandr Montelli and Jonathan Kingslake
The Cryosphere, 17, 195–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Thermal modelling and Bayesian inversion techniques are used to evaluate the uncertainties inherent in inferences of ice-sheet evolution from borehole temperature measurements. We show that the same temperature profiles may result from a range of parameters, of which geothermal heat flux through underlying bedrock plays a key role. Careful model parameterisation and evaluation of heat flux are essential for inferring past ice-sheet evolution from englacial borehole thermometry.
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
Jowan M. Barnes and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 16, 4291–4304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Models must represent how glaciers slide along the bed, but there are many ways to do so. In this paper, several sliding laws are tested and found to affect different regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in different ways and at different speeds. However, the variability in ice volume loss due to sliding-law choices is low compared to other factors, so limited empirical knowledge of sliding does not prevent us from making predictions of how an ice sheet will evolve.
Brooke Medley, Thomas A. Neumann, H. Jay Zwally, Benjamin E. Smith, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 16, 3971–4011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite altimeters measure the height or volume change over Earth's ice sheets, but in order to understand how that change translates into ice mass, we must account for various processes at the surface. Specifically, snowfall events generate large, transient increases in surface height, yet snow fall has a relatively low density, which means much of that height change is composed of air. This air signal must be removed from the observed height changes before we can assess ice mass change.
Haoran Kang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 16, 3619–3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3619-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Basal thermal conditions are important to ice dynamics and sensitive to geothermal heat flux (GHF). We estimate basal thermal conditions of the Lambert–Amery Glacier system with six GHF maps. Recent GHFs inverted from aerial geomagnetic observations produce a larger warm-based area and match the observed subglacial lakes better than the other GHFs. The modelled basal melt rate is 10 to hundreds of millimetres per year in fast-flowing glaciers feeding the Amery Ice Shelf and smaller inland.
Basile de Fleurian, Richard Davy, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 16, 2265–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As temperature increases, more snow and ice melt at the surface of ice sheets. Here we use an ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology model with simplified geometry and climate forcing to study the impact of variations in meltwater on ice dynamics. We focus on the variations in length and intensity of the melt season. Our results show that a longer melt season leads to faster glaciers, but a more intense melt season reduces glaciers' seasonal velocities, albeit leading to higher peak velocities.
Maria-Gema Llorens, Albert Griera, Paul D. Bons, Ilka Weikusat, David J. Prior, Enrique Gomez-Rivas, Tamara de Riese, Ivone Jimenez-Munt, Daniel García-Castellanos, and Ricardo A. Lebensohn
The Cryosphere, 16, 2009–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2009-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Polar ice is formed by ice crystals, which form fabrics that are utilised to interpret how ice sheets flow. It is unclear whether fabrics result from the current flow regime or if they are inherited. To understand the extent to which ice crystals can be reoriented when ice flow conditions change, we simulate and evaluate multi-stage ice flow scenarios according to natural cases. We find that second deformation regimes normally overprint inherited fabrics, with a range of transitional fabrics.
Tanja Schlemm, Johannes Feldmann, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1979–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cliff instability, if it exists, could dominate Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise. It is likely to speed up with ice thickness and thus would accelerate in most parts of Antarctica. Here, we investigate a possible mechanism that might stop cliff instability through cloaking by ice mélange. It is only a first step, but it shows that embayment geometry is, in principle, able to stop marine cliff instability in most parts of West Antarctica.
Neige Calonne, Alexis Burr, Armelle Philip, Frédéric Flin, and Christian Geindreau
The Cryosphere, 16, 967–980, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-967-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Modeling gas transport in ice sheets from surface to close-off is key to interpreting climate archives. Estimates of the diffusion coefficient and permeability of snow and firn are required but remain a large source of uncertainty. We present a new dataset of diffusion coefficients and permeability from 20 to 120 m depth at two Antarctic sites. We suggest predictive formulas to estimate both properties over the entire 100–850 kg m3 density range, i.e., anywhere within the ice sheet column.
Tom Mitcham, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the response of the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and its tributary glaciers to the calving of the A68 iceberg and validated our results with observations. We found that the impact was limited, confirming that mostly passive ice was calved. Through further calving experiments we quantified the total buttressing provided by the LCIS and found that over 80 % of the buttressing capacity is generated in the first 5 km of the ice shelf downstream of the grounding line.
Blake A. Castleman, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Lambert Caron, Eric Larour, and Ala Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 16, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the described study, we derive an uncertainty range for global mean sea level rise (SLR) contribution from Thwaites Glacier in a 200-year period under an extreme ocean warming scenario. We derive the spatial and vertical resolutions needed for bedrock data acquisition missions in order to limit global mean SLR contribution from Thwaites Glacier to ±2 cm in a 200-year period. We conduct sensitivity experiments in order to present the locations of critical regions in need of accurate mapping.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Douglas Brinkerhoff
The Cryosphere, 16, 179–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projecting the future evolution of Greenland and Antarctica and their potential contribution to sea level rise often relies on computer simulations carried out by numerical ice sheet models. Here we present a new vertically integrated ice sheet model and assess its performance using different benchmarks. The new model shows results comparable to a three-dimensional model at relatively lower computational cost, suggesting that it is an excellent alternative for long-term simulations.
Timm Schultz, Ralf Müller, Dietmar Gross, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-143-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Firn is the interstage product between snow and ice. Simulations describing the process of firn densification are used in the context of estimating mass changes of the ice sheets and past climate reconstructions. The first stage of firn densification takes place in the upper few meters of the firn column. We investigate how well a material law describing the process of grain boundary sliding works for the numerical simulation of firn densification in this stage.
Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Xylar S. Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present numerical features of the Community Ice Sheet Model in representing ocean termini glaciers. Using idealized test cases, we show that applying melt in a partly grounded cell is beneficial, in contrast to recent studies. We confirm that parameterizing partly grounded cells yields accurate ice sheet representation at a grid resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km), allowing ice sheet simulations at a continental scale. The choice of basal friction law also influences the ice flow.
Jowan M. Barnes, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Daniel Goldberg, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Mathieu Morlighem, and Jan De Rydt
The Cryosphere, 15, 1975–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Some properties of ice flow models must be initialised using observed data before they can be used to produce reliable predictions of the future. Different models have different ways of doing this, and the process is generally seen as being specific to an individual model. We compare the methods used by three different models and show that they produce similar outputs. We also demonstrate that the outputs from one model can be used in other models without introducing large uncertainties.
Olalekan Babaniyi, Ruanui Nicholson, Umberto Villa, and Noémi Petra
The Cryosphere, 15, 1731–1750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We consider the problem of inferring unknown parameter fields under additional uncertainty for an ice sheet model from synthetic surface ice flow velocity measurements. Our results indicate that accounting for model uncertainty stemming from the presence of nuisance parameters is crucial. Namely our findings suggest that using nominal values for these parameters, as is often done in practice, without taking into account the resulting modeling error can lead to overconfident and biased results.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Gong Cheng, Nina Kirchner, and Per Lötstedt
The Cryosphere, 15, 715–742, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an inverse modeling approach to improve the understanding of spatiotemporally variable processes at the inaccessible base of an ice sheet by determining the sensitivity of direct surface observations to perturbations of basal conditions. Time dependency is proved to be important in these types of problems. The effect of perturbations is analyzed based on analytical and numerical solutions.
Clemens Schannwell, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Olaf Eisen, Christoph Mayer, Mika Malinen, Emma C. Smith, and Hannes Eisermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3917–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To reduce uncertainties associated with sea level rise projections, an accurate representation of ice flow is paramount. Most ice sheet models rely on simplified versions of the underlying ice flow equations. Due to the high computational costs, ice sheet models based on the complete ice flow equations have been restricted to < 1000 years. Here, we present a new model setup that extends the applicability of such models by an order of magnitude, permitting simulations of 40 000 years.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, Christopher Nemeth, C. Max Stevens, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice Noël, and Jan Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 14, 3017–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets are covered by a firn layer, which is the transition stage between fresh snow and ice. Accurate modelling of firn density properties is important in many glaciological aspects. Current models show disagreements, are mostly calibrated to match specific observations of firn density and lack thorough uncertainty analysis. We use a novel calibration method for firn models based on a Bayesian statistical framework, which results in improved model accuracy and in uncertainty evaluation.
Surendra Adhikari, Erik R. Ivins, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 14, 2819–2833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2819-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2819-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The mathematical formalism presented in this paper aims at simplifying computational strategies for tracking ice–ocean mass exchange in the Earth system. To this end, we define a set of generic, and quite simple, descriptions of evolving land, ocean and ice interfaces and present a unified method to compute the sea-level contribution of evolving ice sheets. The formalism can be applied to arbitrary geometries and at all timescales.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Isabel J. Nias, Antony J. Payne, Nicholas R. Golledge, and Rory J. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 14, 1245–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, 2020
Gong Cheng and Per Lötstedt
The Cryosphere, 14, 673–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a time-dependent inverse method for ice sheet modeling. By investigating the sensitivity of the observations of the velocity and the height at the surface to the basal conditions of the ice, we show that if the basal parameters are time dependent, then time cannot be ignored in the inversion. By looking at the numerical features, we conclude that adding the height information of an ice sheet in the velocity inversion procedure could improve the robustness of the inference.
Xiaoran Guo, Liyun Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Sainan Sun, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 13, 3139–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, 2019
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, C. Max Stevens, Michael MacFerrin, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1819–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Firn models rely on empirical approaches for representing the percolation and refreezing of meltwater through the firn column. We develop liquid water schemes of different levels of complexity for firn models and compare their performances with respect to observations of density profiles from Greenland. Our results demonstrate that physically advanced water schemes do not lead to better agreement with density observations. Uncertainties in other processes contribute more to model discrepancy.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Wood, Hélène Seroussi, Youngmin Choi, and Eric Rignot
The Cryosphere, 13, 723–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Many glaciers along the coast of Greenland have been retreating. It has been suggested that this retreat is triggered by the presence of warm water in the fjords, and surface melt at the top of the ice sheet is exacerbating this problem. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of northwestern Greenland to further warming using a numerical model. We find that in current conditions, this sector alone will contribute more than 1 cm to sea rise level by 2100, and up to 3 cm in the most extreme scenario.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Cited articles
Arson, C.: Micro-macro mechanics of damage and healing in rocks, Open Geomechanics, 2, 1–41, https://doi.org/10.5802/ogeo.4, 2020. a
Asay-Davis, X. S., Cornford, S. L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hattermann, T., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Holland, P. R., Martin, D. F., Mathiot, P., Pattyn, F., and Seroussi, H.: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Bassis, J. and Ma, Y.: Evolution of basal crevasses links ice shelf stability to ocean forcing, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 409, 203–211, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.11.003, 2015. a, b, c, d
Bassis, J. N., Crawford, A., Kachuck, S. B., Benn, D. I., Walker, C., Millstein, J., Duddu, R., Åström, J., Fricker, H., and Luckman, A.: Stability of Ice Shelves and Ice Cliffs in a Changing Climate, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 52, annurev–earth–040522–122817, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-040522-122817, 2024. a
Beltaos, S.: Collapse of floating ice covers under vertical loads: test data vs. theory, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 34, 191–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(02)00004-6, 2002. a
Benn, D. I., Hulton, N. R., and Mottram, R. H.: “Calving laws”, “liding laws” and the stability of tidewater glaciers, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 123–130, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871161, 2007a. a
Benn, D. I., Warren, C. R., and Mottram, R. H.: Calving processes and the dynamics of calving glaciers, Earth-Sci. Rev., 82, 143–179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2007.02.002, 2007b. a
Borstad, C., Khazendar, A., Scheuchl, B., Morlighem, M., Larour, E., and Rignot, E.: A constitutive framework for predicting weakening and reduced buttressing of ice shelves based on observations of the progressive deterioration of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2027–2035, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067365, 2016. a, b
Borstad, C. P., Khazendar, A., Larour, E., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Schodlok, M. P., and Seroussi, H.: A damage mechanics assessment of the Larsen B ice shelf prior to collapse: Toward a physically-based calving law: A CALVING LAW BASED ON DAMAGE MECHANICS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053317, 2012. a, b
Borstad, C. P., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Schodlok, M. P.: Creep deformation and buttressing capacity of damaged ice shelves: theory and application to Larsen C ice shelf, The Cryosphere, 7, 1931–1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1931-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d
Buck, W. R. and Lai, C.: Flexural Control of Basal Crevasse Opening Under Ice Shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093110, 2021. a
Cheng, Y., Xia, M., Qiao, G., Lv, D., Li, Y., and Hai, G.: Imminent calving accelerated by increased instability of the Brunt Ice Shelf, in response to climate warming, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 572, 117132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117132, 2021. a
Choi, Y., Morlighem, M., Wood, M., and Bondzio, J. H.: Comparison of four calving laws to model Greenland outlet glaciers, The Cryosphere, 12, 3735–3746, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3735-2018, 2018. a
Choi, Y., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., and Wood, M.: Ice dynamics will remain a primary driver of Greenland ice sheet mass loss over the next century, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 26, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00092-z, 2021. a
Christian, J. E., Robel, A. A., and Catania, G.: A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats, The Cryosphere, 16, 2725–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2725-2022, 2022. a
Clayton, T., Duddu, R., Siegert, M., and Martínez-Pañeda, E.: A stress-based poro-damage phase field model for hydrofracturing of creeping glaciers and ice shelves, Eng. Fract. Mech., 272, 108693, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfracmech.2022.108693, 2022. a
Clayton, T., Duddu, R., Hageman, T., and Martínez-Pañeda, E.: The influence of firn layer material properties on surface crevasse propagation in glaciers and ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 18, 5573–5593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5573-2024, 2024. a
Clerc, F., Minchew, B. M., and Behn, M. D.: Marine Ice Cliff Instability Mitigated by Slow Removal of Ice Shelves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12108–12116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084183, 2019. a
Coffey, N. B., Lai, C.-Y., Wang, Y., Buck, W. R., Surawy-Stepney, T., and Hogg, A. E.: Theoretical stability of ice shelf basal crevasses with a vertical temperature profile, J. Glaciol., 70, e64, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.52, 2024. a
Cook, A. J. and Vaughan, D. G.: Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years, The Cryosphere, 4, 77–98, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-77-2010, 2010. a
Cuffey, K. and Paterson, W.: The Physics of Glaciers, Elsevier Inc., 4 edn., ISBN 9780123694614, 2010. a
Currier, J. and Schulson, E.: The tensile strength of ice as a function of grain size, Acta Metallurgica, 30, 1511–1514, https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6160(82)90171-7, 1982. a
De Rydt, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Nagler, T., Wuite, J., and King, E. C.: Recent rift formation and impact on the structural integrity of the Brunt Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 12, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-505-2018, 2018. a
Duddu, R. and Waisman, H.: A temperature dependent creep damage model for polycrystalline ice, Mech. Mater., 46, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mechmat.2011.11.007, 2012. a, b, c
Duddu, R. and Waisman, H.: A nonlocal continuum damage mechanics approach to simulation of creep fracture in ice sheets, Comput. Mech., 51, 961–974, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-012-0778-7, 2013a. a, b, c
Duddu, R. and Waisman, H.: On the continuum damage mechanics approach to modeling of polar ice fracture: a reply, J. Glaciol., 59, 799–801, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG13J083, 2013b. a
Duddu, R., Bassis, J. N., and Waisman, H.: A numerical investigation of surface crevasse propagation in glaciers using nonlocal continuum damage mechanics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3064–3068, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50602, 2013. a
Duddu, R., Jiménez, S., and Bassis, J.: A non-local continuum poro-damage mechanics model for hydrofracturing of surface crevasses in grounded glaciers, J. Glaciol., 66, 415–429, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.16, 2020. a, b
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T., Golledge, N., Hemer, M., Kopp, R., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J., Slangen, A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 1st edn., ISBN 978-1-00-915789-6, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021. a
Fürst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Rankl, M., Braun, M., and Gagliardini, O.: The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 479–482, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2912, 2016. a
Gao, Y., Ghosh, G., Jiménez, S., and Duddu, R.: A Finite-Element-Based Cohesive Zone Model of Water-Filled Surface Crevasse Propagation in Floating Ice Tongues, Comput. Sci. Eng., 25, 8–16, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2023.3315661, 2023. a
Grinsted, A., Rathmann, N. M., Mottram, R., Solgaard, A. M., Mathiesen, J., and Hvidberg, C. S.: Failure strength of glacier ice inferred from Greenland crevasses, The Cryosphere, 18, 1947–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, 2024. a, b, c, d
Hulbe, C. L., LeDoux, C., and Cruikshank, K.: Propagation of long fractures in the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, investigated using a numerical model of fracture propagation, J. Glaciol., 56, 459–472, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310792447743, 2010. a
Huth, A., Duddu, R., and Smith, B.: A Generalized Interpolation Material Point Method for Shallow Ice Shelves. 1: Shallow Shelf Approximation and Ice Thickness Evolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002277, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002277, 2021a. a
Izeboud, M. and Lhermitte, S.: Damage detection on antarctic ice shelves using the normalised radon transform, Remote Sens. Environ., 284, 113359, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.113359, 2023. a, b, c
Jezek, K. C.: A modified theory of bottom crevasses used as a means for measuring the buttressing effect of ice shelves on inland ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 89, 1925–1931, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB03p01925, 1984. a, b
Jimenez, S., Duddu, R., and Bassis, J.: An updated-Lagrangian damage mechanics formulation for modeling the creeping flow and fracture of ice sheets, Comput. Meth. Appl. Mech. Eng., 313, 406–432, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2016.09.034, 2017. a, b, c, d
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Holland, D. M.: Sensitivity of 21st century sea level to ocean‐induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 2010GL044819, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044819, 2010. a
Kachanov, L. M.: Rupture Time Under Creep Conditions, Int. J. Fract., 97, xi–xviii, 1999. a
Kachuck, S. B., Whitcomb, M., Bassis, J. N., Martin, D. F., and Price, S. F.: Simulating ice-shelf extent using damage mechanics, J. Glaciol., 68, 987–998, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.12, 2022. a, b
King, M. D., Howat, I. M., Candela, S. G., Noh, M. J., Jeong, S., Noël, B. P. Y., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B., and Negrete, A.: Dynamic ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet driven by sustained glacier retreat, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-0001-2, 2020. a
Krajcinovic, D. and Mastilovic, S.: Some fundamental issues of damage mechanics, Mech. Mater., 21, 217–230, https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6636(95)00010-0, 1995. a
Krug, J., Weiss, J., Gagliardini, O., and Durand, G.: Combining damage and fracture mechanics to model calving, The Cryosphere, 8, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2101-2014, 2014. a
Lai, C.-Y., Kingslake, J., Wearing, M. G., Chen, P.-H. C., Gentine, P., Li, H., Spergel, J. J., and Van Wessem, J. M.: Vulnerability of Antarctica’s ice shelves to meltwater-driven fracture, Nature, 584, 574–578, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2627-8, 2020. a, b
Lemaitre, J.: A Continuous Damage Mechanics Model for Ductile Fracture, J. Eng. Mater., 107, 83–89, https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3225775, 1985. a
Lemaitre, J.: A Course on Damage Mechanics, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-540-60980-3 978-3-642-18255-6, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18255-6, 1996. a, b
Luckman, A., Jansen, D., Kulessa, B., King, E. C., Sammonds, P., and Benn, D. I.: Basal crevasses in Larsen C Ice Shelf and implications for their global abundance, The Cryosphere, 6, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-113-2012, 2012. a
Mahrenholtz, O. and Wu, Z.: Determination of creep damage parameters for polycrystalline ice, in: Third International Conference on Ice Technology, Advances in Ice Technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 1992. a
McGrath, D., Steffen, K., Scambos, T., Rajaram, H., Casassa, G., and Rodriguez Lagos, J. L.: Basal crevasses and associated surface crevassing on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica, and their role in ice-shelf instability, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 10–18, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A005, 2012. a
Miao, S. and Engr, S.: Constitutive Models for Healing of Materials with Application to Compaction of Crushed Rock Salt, J. Eng. Mech., 121, 1122–1129, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(1995)121:10(1122), 1995. a
Mobasher, M. E., Duddu, R., Bassis, J. N., and Waisman, H.: Modeling hydraulic fracture of glaciers using continuum damage mechanics, J. Glaciol., 62, 794–804, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.68, 2016. a, b
Murakami, S.: Notion of Continuum Damage Mechanics and its Application to Anisotropic Creep Damage Theory, J. Eng. Mater., 105, 99–105, https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3225633, 1983. a
Murakami, S. and Ohno, N.: A Continuum Theory of Creep and Creep Damage, in: Creep in Structures, edited by Ponter, A. R. S. and Hayhurst, D. R., pp. 422–444, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, ISBN 978-3-642-81600-0 978-3-642-81598-0, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-81598-0_28, 1981. a, b
Nick, F., Van Der Veen, C., Vieli, A., and Benn, D.: A physically based calving model applied to marine outlet glaciers and implications for the glacier dynamics, J. Glaciol., 56, 781–794, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310794457344, 2010. a
Nye, J.: The distribution of stress and velocity in glaciers and ice-sheets, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 239, 113–133, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1957.0026, 1957. a
Olinger, S. D., Lipovsky, B. P., Denolle, M. A., and Crowell, B. W.: Tracking the Cracking: A Holistic Analysis of Rapid Ice Shelf Fracture Using Seismology, Geodesy, and Satellite Imagery on the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097604, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097604, 2022. a
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015. a
Payne, A. J., Vieli, A., Shepherd, A. P., Wingham, D. J., and Rignot, E.: Recent dramatic thinning of largest West Antarctic ice stream triggered by oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, 2004GL021284, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021284, 2004. a
Pritchard, H. D., Arthern, R. J., Vaughan, D. G., and Edwards, L. A.: Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Nature, 461, 971–975, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08471, 2009. a
Ranganathan, M.: Glacier damage evolution on ice flow timescales – scripts and simulation outputs, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11623054, 2024. a
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts, J. T. M.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011. a
Rist, M. A., Sammonds, P. R., Oerter, H., and Doake, C. S. M.: Fracture of Antarctic shelf ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 107, ECV 2–1–ECV 2–13, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JB000058, 2002. a
Robel, A.: aarobel/SSAsimpleM: Release of SSAsimpleM for publication (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5245271, 2021. a, b
Robel, A. A., Roe, G. H., and Haseloff, M.: Response of Marine‐Terminating Glaciers to Forcing: Time Scales, Sensitivities, Instabilities, and Stochastic Dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 123, 2205–2227, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004709, 2018. a
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007. a, b
Shapero, D. R., Badgeley, J. A., Hoffman, A. O., and Joughin, I. R.: icepack: a new glacier flow modeling package in Python, version 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4593–4616, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4593-2021, 2021 (code available at: https://icepack.github.io/, last access: January 2025). a, b
Sun, X., Duddu, R., and Hirshikesh: A poro-damage phase field model for hydrofracturing of glacier crevasses, Extreme Mech. Lett., 45, 101277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eml.2021.101277, 2021. a
Surawy-Stepney, T., Hogg, A. E., Cornford, S. L., and Davison, B. J.: Episodic dynamic change linked to damage on the Thwaites Glacier Ice Tongue, Nat. Geosci., 16, 37–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01097-9, 2023a. a, b, c
Surawy-Stepney, T., Hogg, A. E., Cornford, S. L., and Hogg, D. C.: Mapping Antarctic crevasses and their evolution with deep learning applied to satellite radar imagery, The Cryosphere, 17, 4421–4445, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4421-2023, 2023b. a
Ultee, L., Meyer, C., and Minchew, B.: Tensile strength of glacial ice deduced from observations of the 2015 eastern Skaftá cauldron collapse, Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, J. Glaciol., 66, 1024–1033, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.65, 2020. a
Van Der Veen, C.: Fracture mechanics approach to penetration of bottom crevasses on glaciers, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 27, 213–223, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(98)00006-8, 1998a. a, b
Van Der Veen, C.: Fracture mechanics approach to penetration of surface crevasses on glaciers, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 27, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(97)00022-0, 1998b. a, b
Vaughan, D. G.: Relating the occurrence of crevasses to surface strain rates, J. Glaciol., 39, 255–266, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000015926, 1993. a, b, c, d
Wallis, B. J., Hogg, A. E., Van Wessem, J. M., Davison, B. J., and Van Den Broeke, M. R.: Widespread seasonal speed-up of west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers from 2014 to 2021, Nat. Geosci., 16, 231–237, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01131-4, 2023. a
Weertman, J.: On the Sliding of Glaciers, J. Glaciol., 3, 33–38, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000024709, 1957. a
Weertman, J.: Can a water-filled crevasse reach the bottom surface of a glacier?, 139–145, International Association of Hydrologic Sciences, Cambridge, 1973. a
Wells-Moran, S., Ranganathan, M., and Minchew, B.: Fracture criteria and tensile strength for natural glacier ice calibrated from remote sensing observations of Antarctic ice shelves, J. Glaciol., published online, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.104, 2025. a, b, c, d
Short summary
The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice sheet and by the internal fracturing of the ice. These processes are coupled; fractures reduce the viscosity of ice and enable more rapid flow, and rapid flow causes the fracturing of ice. We present a simplified way of representing damage that is applicable to long-timescale flow estimates. Using this model, we find that including fracturing in an ice sheet simulation can increase the loss of ice by 13–29 %.
The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice...
