Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025
Research article
 | 
14 Mar 2025
Research article |  | 14 Mar 2025

Historically consistent mass loss projections of the Greenland ice sheet

Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek

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Cited articles

Adalgeirsdóttir, G., Aschwanden, A., Khroulev, C., Boberg, F., Mottram, R., Lucas-Picher, P., and Christensen, J. H.: Role of model initialization for projections of 21st-century Greenland ice sheet mass loss, J. Glaciol., 60, 782–794, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J202, 2014. a
Aschwanden, A., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., and Khroulev, C.: Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states, The Cryosphere, 7, 1083–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013, 2013. a
Berends, C. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., van den Akker, T., and Lipscomb, W. H.: Compensating errors in inversions for subglacial bed roughness: same steady state, different dynamic response, The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023. a, b
Bindschadler, R. A., Nowicki, S., Abe-OUCHI, A., Aschwanden, A., Choi, H., Fastook, J., Granzow, G., Greve, R., Gutowski, G., Herzfeld, U., Jackson, C., Johnson, J., Khroulev, C., Levermann, A., Lipscomb, W. H., Martin, M. A., Morlighem, M., Parizek, B. R., Pollard, D., Price, S. F., Ren, D., Saito, F., Sato, T., Seddik, H., Seroussi, H., Takahashi, K., Walker, R., and Wang, W. L.: Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project), J. Glaciol., 59, 195–224, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J125, 2013. a
Brinkerhoff, D. J. and Johnson, J. V.: Data assimilation and prognostic whole ice sheet modelling with the variationally derived, higher order, open source, and fully parallel ice sheet model VarGlaS, The Cryosphere, 7, 1161–1184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1161-2013, 2013. a
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Short summary
Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet significantly contributes to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities globally. To improve future sea-level projections, we simulated ice sheet behavior until 2100, initializing the model with observed geometry and using various climate models. Predictions indicate a sea-level rise of 32 to 228 mm by 2100, with climate model uncertainty being the main source of variability in projections.
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