Articles | Volume 16, issue 11
Research article
 | Highlight paper
04 Nov 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 04 Nov 2022

Improving interpretation of sea-level projections through a machine-learning-based local explanation approach

Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand

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Cited articles

Aas, K., Jullum, M., and Løland, A.: Explaining individual predictions when features are dependent: More accurate approximations to Shapley values, Artif. Intell., 298, 103502,, 2021. 
Achen, C. H.: Intepreting and Using Regression, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks,, 1982. 
Aschwanden, A., Bartholomaus, T. C., Brinkerhoff, D. J., and Truffer, M.: Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715,, 2021. 
Bamber, J. L., Griggs, J. A., Hurkmans, R. T. W. L., Dowdeswell, J. A., Gogineni, S. P., Howat, I., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Palmer, S., Rignot, E., and Steinhage, D.: A new bed elevation dataset for Greenland, The Cryosphere, 7, 499–510,, 2013. 
Barthel, A., Agosta, C., Little, C. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Seroussi, H., Straneo, F., and Bracegirdle, T. J.: CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 855–879,, 2020. 
This manuscript addresses an urgent problem: the proper quantification and attribution of uncertainties relating to sea-level rise. The authors show how a machine-learning approach may show the way towards a more rigorous treatment of these uncertainties, and how this might be used for policy making.
Short summary
To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based SHapley Additive exPlanations approach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.