Articles | Volume 13, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3193-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Dec 2019
Research article |
| 04 Dec 2019
| 04 Dec 2019
Surface mass balance downscaling through elevation classes in an Earth system model: application to the Greenland ice sheet
Raymond Sellevold
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Leonardus van Kampenhout
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Jan T. M. Lenaerts
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Brice Noël
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Miren Vizcaino
Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
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Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-441, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Ice sheet models to simulate future sea level rise require parameterizations, like for the friction at the bedrock. Studies have quantified the effect of using different parameterizations, and some have concluded that projections are sensitive to the choice of the specific parameterization. In this study, we show that you can make an ice sheet model sensitive to the basal friction parameterization, and that for equally defendable modellers choices you can also make the model insensitive to this.
Emily Glen, Amber Leeson, Alison F. Banwell, Jennifer Maddalena, Diarmuid Corr, Olivia Atkins, Brice Noël, and Malcolm McMillan
The Cryosphere, 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, 2025
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We compare surface meltwater features from optical satellite imagery in the Russell–Leverett glacier catchment during high (2019) and low (2018) melt years. In the high melt year, features appear at higher elevations, meltwater systems are more connected, small lakes are more frequent, and slush is more widespread. These findings provide insights into how a warming climate, where high melt years become common, could alter meltwater distribution and dynamics on the Greenland Ice Sheet.
William H. Lipscomb, David Behar, and Monica Ainhorn Morrison
The Cryosphere, 19, 793–803, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025, 2025
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As communities try to adapt to climate change, they look for "actionable science" that can inform decision-making. There are risks in relying on novel results that are not yet accepted by the science community. We propose a practical criterion for determining which scientific claims are actionable. We show how premature acceptance of sea-level-rise predictions can lead to confusion and backtracking, and we suggest best practices for communication between scientists and adaptation planners.
Andrew O. Hoffman, Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan Lenaerts, Kristine M. Larson, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 19, 713–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-713-2025, 2025
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Traditionally, glaciologists use global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) to measure the surface elevation and velocity of glaciers to understand processes associated with ice flow. Using the interference of GNSS signals that bounce off of the ice sheet surface, we measure the surface height change near GNSS receivers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE). From surface height change, we infer daily accumulation rates that we use to understand the drivers of extreme precipitation in the ASE.
Samar Minallah, William Lipscomb, Gunter Leguy, and Harry Zekollari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4152, 2025
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We implemented a new modeling framework within an Earth system model to study the evolution of mountain glaciers under different climate scenarios and applied it to the European Alps. Alpine glaciers will lose a large volume fraction under current temperatures, with near complete ice loss under warmer scenarios. This is the first use of a 3D, higher-order ice flow model for regional-scale glacier simulations that will enable assessments of coupled land ice and Earth system processes.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Anneke Louise Vries, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice Noël, Lorenz Meire, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3735, 2025
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Freshwater enters Greenland's fjords from various sources. Solid ice discharge dominates freshwater input into fjords in the southeast and northwest. In contrast, in the southwest, runoff from the ice sheet and tundra are most significant. Seasonally resolved data revealed that fjord precipitation and tundra runoff contribute up to 11 % and 35 % of the total freshwater influx, respectively. Our results provide valuable input for ocean models and for researchers studying fjord ecosystems.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
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Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Heiko Goelzer, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, Stefan Hofer, Konstanze Haubner, Michele Petrini, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3045, 2025
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On the backdrop of observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss over the last few decades, there is growing interest in the role of ice sheet changes in global climate projections. In this regard, we have coupled an Earth system model with an ice sheet model and have produced an initial set of climate projections including an interactive coupling with a dynamic Greenland ice sheet.
Shfaqat A. Khan, Helene Seroussi, Mathieu Morlighem, William Colgan, Veit Helm, Gong Cheng, Danjal Berg, Valentina R. Barletta, Nicolaj K. Larsen, William Kochtitzky, Michiel van den Broeke, Kurt H. Kjær, Andy Aschwanden, Brice Noël, Jason E. Box, Joseph A. MacGregor, Robert S. Fausto, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Ian M. Howat, Kuba Oniszk, Dominik Fahrner, Anja Løkkegaard, Eigil Y. H. Lippert, and Javed Hassan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-348, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-348, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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The surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing due to surface mass balance processes and ice dynamics, each exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal patterns. Here, we employ satellite and airborne altimetry data with fine spatial (1 km) and temporal (monthly) resolutions to document this spatiotemporal evolution from 2003 to 2023. This dataset of fine-resolution altimetry data in both space and time will support studies of ice mass loss and useful for GIS ice sheet modelling.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Robert A. Tomas, Nathan M. Urban, Ian Miller, Harriet Morgan, and Eric J. Steig
Clim. Past, 20, 2349–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2349-2024, 2024
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Studying climate conditions near the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) during Earth’s past warm periods informs us about how global warming may influence AIS ice loss. Using a global climate model, we investigate climate conditions near the AIS during the Last Interglacial (129 to 116 kyr ago), a period with warmer global temperatures and higher sea level than today. We identify the orbital and freshwater forcings that could cause ice loss and probe the mechanisms that lead to warmer climate conditions.
Horst Machguth, Andrew Tedstone, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Max Brils, Brice Noël, Nicole Clerx, Nicolas Jullien, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel van den Broeke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2750, 2024
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Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt expands to higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet. This is visible on satellite imagery in the form of rivers of meltwater running across the surface of the ice sheet. We compare model results of meltwater at high elevations on the ice sheet to satellite observations. We find that each of the models shows strengths and weaknesses. A detailed look into the model results reveals potential reasons for the differences between models.
Jean-François Lemieux, William H. Lipscomb, Anthony Craig, David A. Bailey, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Philippe Blain, Till A. S. Rasmussen, Mats Bentsen, Frédéric Dupont, David Hebert, and Richard Allard
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6703–6724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6703-2024, 2024
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We present the latest version of the CICE model. It solves equations that describe the dynamics and the growth and melt of sea ice. To do so, the domain is divided into grid cells and variables are positioned at specific locations in the cells. A new implementation (C-grid) is presented, with the velocity located on cell edges. Compared to the previous B-grid, the C-grid allows for a natural coupling with some oceanic and atmospheric models. It also allows for ice transport in narrow channels.
Mikkel Langgaard Lauritzen, Anne Munck Solgaard, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Aslak Grindsted, Brice Noël, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, 2024
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We study the Holocene period, which started about 11,700 years ago, through 841 computer simulations to better understand the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We accurately match historical surface elevation records, verifying our model. The simulations show that an ice bridge that used to connect the Greenland ice sheet to Canada collapsed around 4,900 years ago and still influences the ice sheet. Over the past 500 years, the Greenland ice sheet has contributed 12 millimeters to sea levels.
Xueyu Zhang, Lin Liu, Brice Noël, and Zhicai Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1726, 2024
Preprint archived
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This study indicates that the overall characteristics of the upper firn density in the percolation zone could be captured by the choice of appropriate model configurations and climatic forcing, which is necessary for understanding the current mass balance of the GrIS and predicting its future. The modelled firn density in this study generally aligns well with observations from 16 cores, with the relative bias in density ranging from 0.36 % to 6 % at Dye-2 and being within ±5 % at KAN_U.
Thirza Feenstra, Miren Vizcaino, Bert Wouters, Michele Petrini, Raymond Sellevold, and Katherine Thayer-Calder
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1126, 2024
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We present the first evaluation of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and climate feedbacks with a CMIP model. Under 4xCO2 forcing, lower elevations reduce GrIS summer blocking and incoming solar radiation, and increase precipitation. Simulated increases of near-surface summer temperature are much lower than the 6 K km-1 lapse rate that is commonly used in non-coupled simulations. CO2 reduction to pre-industrial (PI) halts GrIS mass loss regardless of higher global warming and albedo than PI control.
Xueyu Zhang, Lin Liu, Brice Noël, and Zhicai Luo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-122, 2024
Preprint archived
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In this study, an improved firn densification model is developed by integrating the Bucket scheme and Darcy’s law to assess the capillary retention, refreezing, and runoff of liquid water within the firn layer. This model captures high-density peaks (~917 kg · m-3) or the features of high-density layers caused by the refreezing of liquid water. In general, the modelled firn depth-density profiles at KAN_U and Dye-2 agree well with the in situ measurements.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
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The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Sarah L. Bradley, Raymond Sellevold, Michele Petrini, Miren Vizcaino, Sotiria Georgiou, Jiang Zhu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Marcus Lofverstrom
Clim. Past, 20, 211–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-211-2024, 2024
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Europe and North America. We provide a detailed analysis of surface mass and energy components for two time periods that bracket the LGM: 26 and 21 ka BP. We use an earth system model which has been adopted for modern ice sheets. We find that all Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have a positive surface mass balance apart from the British and Irish ice sheets and the North American ice sheet complex.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Rajashree Tri Datta, Adam Herrington, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, David P. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqi Yin, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 17, 3847–3866, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023, 2023
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Precipitation over Antarctica is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. Earth system models (ESMs) are a valuable tool for these estimates but typically run at coarse spatial resolutions. Here, we present an evaluation of the variable-resolution CESM2 (VR-CESM2) for the first time with a grid designed for enhanced spatial resolution over Antarctica to achieve the high resolution of regional climate models while preserving the two-way interactions of ESMs.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3203–3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3203-2023, 2023
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Ice sheets gain mass via snowfall. However, snowfall is redistributed by the wind, resulting in accumulation differences of up to a factor of 5 over distances as short as 5 km. These differences complicate estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. For this reason, we have developed a new model for estimating wind-driven snow redistribution on ice sheets. We show that, over Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, the model improves estimates of snow accumulation variability.
Mattia Poinelli, Michael Schodlok, Eric Larour, Miren Vizcaino, and Riccardo Riva
The Cryosphere, 17, 2261–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2261-2023, 2023
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Rifts are fractures on ice shelves that connect the ice on top to the ocean below. The impact of rifts on ocean circulation below Antarctic ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly run at resolutions that are too coarse to resolve the presence of rifts. Our model simulations show that a kilometer-wide rift near the ice-shelf front modulates heat intrusion beneath the ice and inhibits basal melt. These processes are therefore worthy of further investigation.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Constantijn J. Berends, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Tim van den Akker, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 17, 1585–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1585-2023, 2023
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The rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet will melt because of anthropogenic climate change is uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from processes occurring beneath the ice, such as the way the ice slides over the underlying bedrock.
Inversion methodsattempt to use observations of the ice-sheet surface to calculate how these sliding processes work. We show that such methods cannot fully solve this problem, so a substantial uncertainty still remains in projections of sea-level rise.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
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Contributions to future sea level from the Antarctic Ice Sheet remain poorly constrained. One reason is that ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. We investigate the impacts of two key parameters used during model initialization. We find that these parameter choices alone can impact multi-century sea level rise by up to 2 m, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these choices for sea level rise predictions.
Michelle L. Maclennan, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Christine A. Shields, Andrew O. Hoffman, Nander Wever, Megan Thompson-Munson, Andrew C. Winters, Erin C. Pettit, Theodore A. Scambos, and Jonathan D. Wille
The Cryosphere, 17, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-865-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric rivers are air masses that transport large amounts of moisture and heat towards the poles. Here, we use a combination of weather observations and models to quantify the amount of snowfall caused by atmospheric rivers in West Antarctica which is about 10 % of the total snowfall each year. We then examine a unique event that occurred in early February 2020, when three atmospheric rivers made landfall over West Antarctica in rapid succession, leading to heavy snowfall and surface melt.
Devon Dunmire, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Tessa Gorte
The Cryosphere, 16, 4163–4184, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022, 2022
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Earth system models (ESMs) are used to model the climate system and the interactions of its components (atmosphere, ocean, etc.) both historically and into the future under different assumptions of human activity. The representation of Antarctica in ESMs is important because it can inform projections of the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise. Here, we compare output of Antarctica's surface climate from an ESM with observations to understand strengths and weaknesses within the model.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Adrian K. Turner, William H. Lipscomb, Elizabeth C. Hunke, Douglas W. Jacobsen, Nicole Jeffery, Darren Engwirda, Todd D. Ringler, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3721–3751, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3721-2022, 2022
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We present the dynamical core of the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a mesh consisting of a Voronoi tessellation with polygonal cells. Such a mesh allows variable mesh resolution in different parts of the domain and the focusing of computational resources in regions of interest. We describe the velocity solver and tracer transport schemes used and examine errors generated by the model in both idealized and realistic test cases and examine the computational efficiency of the model.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Karen E. Alley, Christian T. Wild, Adrian Luckman, Ted A. Scambos, Martin Truffer, Erin C. Pettit, Atsuhiro Muto, Bruce Wallin, Marin Klinger, Tyler Sutterley, Sarah F. Child, Cyrus Hulen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Michelle Maclennan, Eric Keenan, and Devon Dunmire
The Cryosphere, 15, 5187–5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5187-2021, 2021
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We present a 20-year, satellite-based record of velocity and thickness change on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the largest remaining floating extension of Thwaites Glacier (TG). TG holds the single greatest control on sea-level rise over the next few centuries, so it is important to understand changes on the TEIS, which controls much of TG's flow into the ocean. Our results suggest that the TEIS is progressively destabilizing and is likely to disintegrate over the next few decades.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
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We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
Madison L. Ghiz, Ryan C. Scott, Andrew M. Vogelmann, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Matthew Lazzara, and Dan Lubin
The Cryosphere, 15, 3459–3494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3459-2021, 2021
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We investigate how melt occurs over the vulnerable ice shelves of West Antarctica and determine that the three primary mechanisms can be evaluated using archived numerical weather prediction model data and satellite imagery. We find examples of each mechanism: thermal blanketing by a warm atmosphere, radiative heating by thin clouds, and downslope winds. Our results signify the potential to make a multi-decadal assessment of atmospheric stress on West Antarctic ice shelves in a warming climate.
Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Xylar S. Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021
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We present numerical features of the Community Ice Sheet Model in representing ocean termini glaciers. Using idealized test cases, we show that applying melt in a partly grounded cell is beneficial, in contrast to recent studies. We confirm that parameterizing partly grounded cells yields accurate ice sheet representation at a grid resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km), allowing ice sheet simulations at a continental scale. The choice of basal friction law also influences the ice flow.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
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Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Sarah Hanus, Markus Hrachowitz, Harry Zekollari, Gerrit Schoups, Miren Vizcaino, and Roland Kaitna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3429–3453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3429-2021, 2021
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This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six Alpine catchments in Austria at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum and minimum flows in high-elevation catchments. Magnitudes of annual extremes are projected to increase under a moderate emission scenario in all catchments. Changes are generally more pronounced for high-elevation catchments.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Nathan M. Urban
The Cryosphere, 15, 2683–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021, 2021
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Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures and have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in rise amount and timing remain largely unquantified. To facilitate uncertainty quantification, we use a high-resolution ice sheet model to build, test, and validate an ice sheet emulator and generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years in the future.
Eric Keenan, Nander Wever, Marissa Dattler, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Brooke Medley, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 15, 1065–1085, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1065-2021, 2021
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Snow density is required to convert observed changes in ice sheet volume into mass, which ultimately drives ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. However, snow properties respond dynamically to wind-driven redistribution. Here we include a new wind-driven snow density scheme into an existing snow model. Our results demonstrate an improved representation of snow density when compared to observations and can therefore be used to improve retrievals of ice sheet mass balance.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
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This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Tessa Gorte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 14, 4719–4733, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4719-2020, 2020
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In this paper, we analyze several spatial and temporal criteria to assess the ability of models in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 frameworks to recreate past Antarctic surface mass balance. We then compared a subset of the top performing models to all remaining models to refine future surface mass balance predictions under different forcing scenarios. We found that the top performing models predict lower surface mass balance by 2100, indicating less buffering than otherwise expected of sea level rise.
Marie G. P. Cavitte, Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 4083–4102, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4083-2020, 2020
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Surface mass balance (SMB) and surface air temperature (SAT) are correlated at the regional scale for most of Antarctica, SMB and δ18O. Areas with low/no correlation are where wind processes (foehn, katabatic wind warming, and erosion) are sufficiently active to overwhelm the synoptic-scale snow accumulation. Measured in ice cores, the link between SMB, SAT, and δ18O is much weaker. Random noise can be removed by core record averaging but local processes perturb the correlation systematically.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Brice Noël, Xavier Fettweis, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, William Colgan, Ken Kondo, Kirsty Langley, Shin Sugiyama, Dirk van As, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2811–2841, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2811-2020, 2020
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This work partitions regional climate model (RCM) runoff from the MAR and RACMO RCMs to hydrologic outlets at the ice margin and coast. Temporal resolution is daily from 1959 through 2019. Spatial grid is ~ 100 m, resolving individual streams. In addition to discharge at outlets, we also provide the streams, outlets, and basin geospatial data, as well as a script to query and access the geospatial or time series discharge data from the data files.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Thore Kausch, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Nander Wever, Mana Inoue, Frank Pattyn, Sainan Sun, Sarah Wauthy, Jean-Louis Tison, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 14, 3367–3380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3367-2020, 2020
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Ice rises are elevated parts of the otherwise flat ice shelf. Here we study the impact of an Antarctic ice rise on the surrounding snow accumulation by combining field data and modeling. Our results show a clear difference in average yearly snow accumulation between the windward side, the leeward side and the peak of the ice rise due to differences in snowfall and wind erosion. This is relevant for the interpretation of ice core records, which are often drilled on the peak of an ice rise.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, Christopher Nemeth, C. Max Stevens, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice Noël, and Jan Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 14, 3017–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, 2020
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Ice sheets are covered by a firn layer, which is the transition stage between fresh snow and ice. Accurate modelling of firn density properties is important in many glaciological aspects. Current models show disagreements, are mostly calibrated to match specific observations of firn density and lack thorough uncertainty analysis. We use a novel calibration method for firn models based on a Bayesian statistical framework, which results in improved model accuracy and in uncertainty evaluation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
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We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Jan T. M. Lenaerts, M. Drew Camron, Christopher R. Wyburn-Powell, and Jennifer E. Kay
The Cryosphere, 14, 2253–2265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2253-2020, 2020
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
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This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Heiko Goelzer, Brice P. Y. Noël, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, William H. Lipscomb, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1747–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1747-2020, 2020
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Future sea-level change projections with process-based ice sheet models are typically driven with surface mass balance forcing derived from climate models. In this work we address the problems arising from a mismatch of the modelled ice sheet geometry with the one used by the climate model. The proposed remapping method reproduces the original forcing data closely when applied to the original geometry and produces a physically meaningful forcing when applied to different modelled geometries.
Brice Noël, Leonardus van Kampenhout, Willem Jan van de Berg, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Bert Wouters, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 1425–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1425-2020, 2020
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We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2; ~111 km) to force a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ~11 km), which is further refined to 1 km spatial resolution. For the first time, an Earth-system-model-based product, assimilating no observations, can reconstruct realistic historical ice sheet surface mass balance as well as the mass loss acceleration that started in the 1990s.
Quentin Dalaiden, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, and Elizabeth R. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 14, 1187–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1187-2020, 2020
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Large uncertainties remain in Antarctic surface temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Here, the analysis of climate model outputs reveals that snow accumulation is a more relevant proxy for surface temperature reconstructions than δ18O. We use this finding in data assimilation experiments to compare to observed surface temperatures. We show that our continental temperature reconstruction outperforms reconstructions based on δ18O, especially for East Antarctica.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hailong Wang, Jeremy G. Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jesse M. Nusbaumer, Hansi Singh, David Noone, Philip J. Rasch, and Rudong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 429–444, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-429-2020, 2020
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Using a climate model with unique water source tagging, we found that sea-ice anomalies in the Southern Ocean and accompanying SST changes have a significant influence on Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution through their direct impact on moisture sources and indirect impact on moisture transport. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation.
Ward van Pelt, Veijo Pohjola, Rickard Pettersson, Sergey Marchenko, Jack Kohler, Bartłomiej Luks, Jon Ove Hagen, Thomas V. Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Brice Noël, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 13, 2259–2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, 2019
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The climate in Svalbard is undergoing amplified change compared to the global mean, which has a strong impact on the climatic mass balance of glaciers and the state of seasonal snow in land areas. In this study we analyze a coupled energy balance–subsurface model dataset, which provides detailed information on distributed climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff across Svalbard between 1957 and 2018.
Thomas J. Ballinger, Thomas L. Mote, Kyle Mattingly, Angela C. Bliss, Edward Hanna, Dirk van As, Melissa Prieto, Saeideh Gharehchahi, Xavier Fettweis, Brice Noël, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Mads H. Ribergaard, and John Cappelen
The Cryosphere, 13, 2241–2257, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2241-2019, 2019
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Arctic sea ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are melting later in the year due to a warming climate. Through analyses of weather station, climate model, and reanalysis data, physical links are evaluated between Baffin Bay open water duration and western GrIS melt conditions. We show that sub-Arctic air mass movement across this portion of the GrIS strongly influences late summer and autumn melt, while near-surface, off-ice winds inhibit westerly atmospheric heat transfer from Baffin Bay.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, C. Max Stevens, Michael MacFerrin, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1819–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, 2019
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Firn models rely on empirical approaches for representing the percolation and refreezing of meltwater through the firn column. We develop liquid water schemes of different levels of complexity for firn models and compare their performances with respect to observations of density profiles from Greenland. Our results demonstrate that physically advanced water schemes do not lead to better agreement with density observations. Uncertainties in other processes contribute more to model discrepancy.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
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A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Dan Lu, Mary M. Forrester, Stephen Price, Jeremy Fyke, Andrew R. Bennett, Matthew J. Hoffman, Irina Tezaur, Charles S. Zender, and Miren Vizcaíno
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, 2019
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A robust validation of ice sheet models is presented using LIVVkit, version 2.1. It targets ice sheet and coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and operations that require high-performance computing and storage. We apply LIVVkit to a Greenland ice sheet simulation to show the degree to which it captures the surface mass balance. LIVVkit identifies a positive bias due to insufficient melting compared to observations that is focused largely around Greenland's southwest region.
Alexandra Gossart, Stephen P. Palm, Niels Souverijns, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-25, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Blowing snow measurements are scarce, both in time and space over the Antarctic ice sheet. We compare here CALIPSO satellite blowing snow measurements, to ground-base remote sensing ceilometer retrievals at two coastal stations in East Antarctica. Results indicate that 95 % of the blowing snow occurs under cloudy conditions, and are missed by the satellite. In addition, difficulties arise if comparing point locations to satellite overpasses.
Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Anais Orsi, Vincent Favier, Hubert Gallée, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019
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Antarctic surface mass balance (ASMB), a component of the sea level budget, is commonly estimated through modelling as observations are scarce. The polar-oriented regional climate model MAR performs well in simulating the observed ASMB. MAR and RACMO2 share common biases we relate to drifting snow transport, with a 3 times larger magnitude than in previous estimates. Sublimation of precipitation in the katabatic layer modelled by MAR is of a magnitude similar to an observation-based estimate.
William H. Lipscomb, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Gunter R. Leguy, Andrew R. Bennett, Sarah L. Bradley, Katherine J. Evans, Jeremy G. Fyke, Joseph H. Kennedy, Mauro Perego, Douglas M. Ranken, William J. Sacks, Andrew G. Salinger, Lauren J. Vargo, and Patrick H. Worley
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019
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This paper describes the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) version 2.1. CISM solves equations for ice flow, heat conduction, surface melting, and other processes such as basal sliding and iceberg calving. It can be used for ice-sheet-only simulations or as the ice sheet component of the Community Earth System Model. Model solutions have been verified for standard test problems. CISM can efficiently simulate the whole Greenland ice sheet, with results that are broadly consistent with observations.
Michalea D. King, Ian M. Howat, Seongsu Jeong, Myoung J. Noh, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 3813–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3813-2018, 2018
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We derive the first continuous record of total ice discharged from all large Greenland outlet glaciers over the 2000–2016 period, resolving a distinct pattern of seasonal variability. We compare these results to glacier retreat and meltwater runoff and find that while runoff has a limited impact on ice discharge in summer, long-term changes in discharge are highly correlated to retreat. These results help to better understand Greenland outlet glacier sensitivity over a range of timescales.
Jiangjun Ran, Miren Vizcaino, Pavel Ditmar, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Twila Moon, Christian R. Steger, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Bert Wouters, Brice Noël, Catharina H. Reijmer, Roland Klees, Min Zhong, Lin Liu, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 12, 2981–2999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2981-2018, 2018
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To accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry, surface mass balance, and ice discharge to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal scales. This study, for the first time, suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. We highlight its importance for understanding ice sheet mass variability
Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, William H. Lipscomb, Tong Zhang, Douglas Jacobsen, Irina Tezaur, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond Tuminaro, and Luca Bertagna
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3747–3780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, 2018
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MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) is a new variable-resolution land ice model that uses unstructured grids on a plane or sphere. MALI is built for Earth system modeling on high-performance computing platforms using existing software libraries. MALI simulates the evolution of ice thickness, velocity, and temperature, and it includes schemes for simulating iceberg calving and the flow of water beneath ice sheets and its effect on ice sliding. The model is demonstrated for the Antarctic ice sheet.
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1643–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, 2018
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Firn is the transitional product between fresh snow and glacier ice, and a 10-100 m thick layer covers the Greenland ice sheet. It has the capacity to store meltwater and thereby mitigate runoff to the ocean. Using a model and improved atmospheric forcing, we simulate firn density and temperature that agrees well with observations from firn cores. Especially in the regions with substantial melt, and therefore the most sensitive to a warming climate, the results improved significantly.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, J. Melchior van Wessem, Erik van Meijgaard, Dirk van As, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Peter Kuipers Munneke, C. J. P. Paul Smeets, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 at 11 km resolution (1958–2016) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance, i.e. snowfall minus meltwater run-off, of the GrIS compared to in situ observations. Since run-off from marginal narrow glaciers is poorly resolved at 11 km, further statistical downscaling to 1 km resolution is required for mass balance studies.
Alexandra Gossart, Niels Souverijns, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Stef Lhermitte, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Jan H. Schween, Alexander Mangold, Quentin Laffineur, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 11, 2755–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2755-2017, 2017
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Blowing snow plays an important role on local surface mass balance of Antarctica. We present here the blowing snow detection algorithm, to retrieve blowing snow occurrence from the attenuated backscatter signal of ceilometers set up at two station. There is a good correspondence in detection of heavy blowing snow by the algorithm and the visual observations performed at Neumayer station. Moreover, most of the blowing snow occurs during events bringing precipitation from the coast inland.
Jeremy Fyke, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Hailong Wang
The Cryosphere, 11, 2595–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2595-2017, 2017
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In this CESM modeling study, we uncover regional relationships in snowfall across Antarctica that are corroborated by regional modeling and ice core records. These relationships are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport and dampen overall Antarctic snowfall variability, with implications for Antarctic-sourced sea level variability and detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends.
Elizabeth R. Thomas, J. Melchior van Wessem, Jason Roberts, Elisabeth Isaksson, Elisabeth Schlosser, Tyler J. Fudge, Paul Vallelonga, Brooke Medley, Jan Lenaerts, Nancy Bertler, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Daniel A. Dixon, Massimo Frezzotti, Barbara Stenni, Mark Curran, and Alexey A. Ekaykin
Clim. Past, 13, 1491–1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1491-2017, 2017
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Regional Antarctic snow accumulation derived from 79 ice core records is evaluated as part of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group. Our results show that surface mass balance for the total Antarctic ice sheet has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt dec-1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ~ 0.02 mm dec-1 since 1800 and ~ 0.04 mm dec-1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula.
Harry Zekollari, Philippe Huybrechts, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 11, 805–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017, 2017
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In this study the dynamics of the world’s northernmost ice cap are investigated with a 3-D ice flow model. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions
an ice cap similar to the observed one is obtained, with comparable geometry and surface velocities. The southern part of the ice cap is very unstable,
and under early-21st-century climatic conditions this part of the ice cap fully disappears. In a projected warmer and wetter climate the ice cap will at
first steepen, before eventually disappearing.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
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We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Horst Machguth, Stef Lhermitte, Ian Howat, Xavier Fettweis, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 10, 2361–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016, 2016
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We present a 1 km resolution data set (1958–2015) of daily Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), statistically downscaled from the data of RACMO2.3 at 11 km using elevation dependence, precipitation and bare ice albedo corrections. The data set resolves Greenland narrow ablation zones and local outlet glaciers, and shows more realistic SMB patterns, owing to enhanced runoff at the ice sheet margins. An evaluation of the product against SMB measurements shows improved agreement.
Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ellyn M. Enderlin, Ian M. Howat, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Erik van Meijgaard, and Bert Wouters
The Cryosphere, 10, 1933–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1933-2016, 2016
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We present recent (1958–2015) mass balance time series for the Greenland ice sheet. We show that recent mass loss is caused by a combination of increased surface meltwater runoff and solid ice discharge. Most meltwater above 2000 m a.s.l. refreezes in the cold firn and does not leave the ice sheet, but this goes at the expense of firn heating and densifying. In spite of a temporary rebound in 2013, it appears that the ice sheet remains in a state of persistent mass loss.
P. Kuipers Munneke, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, B. P. Y. Noël, I. M. Howat, J. E. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, J. R. McConnell, K. Steffen, J. T. Harper, S. B. Das, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, 2015
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The snow layer on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing: it is thickening in the high and cold interior due to increased snowfall, while it is thinning around the margins. The marginal thinning is caused by compaction, and by more melt.
This knowledge is important: there are satellites that measure volume change of the ice sheet. It can be caused by increased ice discharge, or by compaction of the snow layer. Here, we quantify the latter, so that we can translate volume to mass change.
S. de la Peña, I. M. Howat, P. W. Nienow, M. R. van den Broeke, E. Mosley-Thompson, S. F. Price, D. Mair, B. Noël, and A. J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 9, 1203–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, 2015
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This paper presents an assessment of changes in the near-surface structure of the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by an increase of melt at higher elevations in the last decade, especially during the unusually warm years of 2010 and 2012. The increase in melt and firn densification complicate the interpretation of changes in the ice volume, and the observed increase in firn ice content may reduce the important meltwater buffering capacity of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
B. Noël, X. Fettweis, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and M. Erpicum
The Cryosphere, 8, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1871-2014, 2014
B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. E. Smith, S. B. Das, E. J. Steig, H. Conway, S. Gogineni, C. Lewis, A. S. Criscitiello, J. R. McConnell, M. R. van den Broeke, J. T. M. Lenaerts, D. H. Bromwich, J. P. Nicolas, and C. Leuschen
The Cryosphere, 8, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014
G. R. Leguy, X. S. Asay-Davis, and W. H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 8, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, 2014
J. G. Fyke, W. J. Sacks, and W. H. Lipscomb
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1183–1195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1183-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1183-2014, 2014
J. T. M. Lenaerts, C. J. P. P. Smeets, K. Nishimura, M. Eijkelboom, W. Boot, M. R. van den Broeke, and W. J. van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 8, 801–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-801-2014, 2014
B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban
The Cryosphere, 8, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, 2014
J. M. van Wessem, C. H. Reijmer, J. T. M. Lenaerts, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 8, 125–135, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-125-2014, 2014
S. H. Mernild, W. H. Lipscomb, D. B. Bahr, V. Radić, and M. Zemp
The Cryosphere, 7, 1565–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013, 2013
X. Fettweis, B. Franco, M. Tedesco, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. R. van den Broeke, and H. Gallée
The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013
I. M. Howat, S. de la Peña, J. H. van Angelen, J. T. M. Lenaerts, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 7, 201–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-201-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Greenland
Historically consistent mass loss projections of the Greenland ice sheet
A comparison of supraglacial meltwater features throughout contrasting melt seasons: southwest Greenland
Ice speed of a Greenlandic tidewater glacier modulated by tide, melt, and rain
A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt
Projections of precipitation and temperatures in Greenland and the impact of spatially uniform anomalies on the evolution of the ice sheet
Impacts of differing melt regimes on satellite radar waveforms and elevation retrievals
The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction
Brief communication: Storstrømmen glacier, Northeast Greenland, primed for end-of-decade surge
Firn seismic anisotropy in the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream from ambient-noise surface waves
First results of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.4
Calving front monitoring at a subseasonal resolution: a deep learning application for Greenland glaciers
Mapping the vertical heterogeneity of Greenland's firn from 2011–2019 using airborne radar and laser altimetry
Subglacial valleys preserved in the highlands of south and east Greenland record restricted ice extent during past warmer climates
Coupling MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) with PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) mitigates the positive melt–elevation feedback
Cloud- and ice-albedo feedbacks drive greater Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to warming in CMIP6 than in CMIP5
Evaluating different geothermal heat-flow maps as basal boundary conditions during spin-up of the Greenland ice sheet
Seasonal evolution of the supraglacial drainage network at Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, between 2016 and 2020
Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Precursor of disintegration of Greenland's largest floating ice tongue
An evaluation of a physics-based firn model and a semi-empirical firn model across the Greenland Ice Sheet (1980–2020)
Subglacial lake activity beneath the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The control of short-term ice mélange weakening episodes on calving activity at major Greenland outlet glaciers
Weekly to monthly terminus variability of Greenland's marine-terminating outlet glaciers
The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat
Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland
Assessing bare-ice albedo simulated by MAR over the Greenland ice sheet (2000–2021) and implications for meltwater production estimates
Drill-site selection for cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating of the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet
A new Level 4 multi-sensor ice surface temperature product for the Greenland Ice Sheet
High-resolution imaging of supraglacial hydrological features on the Greenland Ice Sheet with NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) instrument suite
The impact of climate oscillations on the surface energy budget over the Greenland Ice Sheet in a changing climate
GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Unravelling the long-term, locally heterogenous response of Greenland glaciers observed in archival photography
Simulating the Holocene deglaciation across a marine-terminating portion of southwestern Greenland in response to marine and atmospheric forcings
Comparison of ice dynamics using full-Stokes and Blatter–Pattyn approximation: application to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model
Modelling the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties
Multi-decadal retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northwest and central-west Greenland
Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century
Proper orthogonal decomposition of ice velocity identifies drivers of flow variability at Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ)
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
Automated detection and analysis of surface calving waves with a terrestrial radar interferometer at the front of Eqip Sermia, Greenland
Generation and fate of basal meltwater during winter, western Greenland Ice Sheet
Modeling the Greenland englacial stratigraphy
Upstream flow effects revealed in the EastGRIP ice core using Monte Carlo inversion of a two-dimensional ice-flow model
Indication of high basal melting at the EastGRIP drill site on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering
Contrasting regional variability of buried meltwater extent over 2 years across the Greenland Ice Sheet
Sensitivity of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters
Surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet derived from enhanced resolution passive microwave brightness temperatures (1979–2019)
Charlotte Rahlves, Heiko Goelzer, Andreas Born, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 19, 1205–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1205-2025, 2025
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Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet significantly contributes to rising sea levels, threatening coastal communities globally. To improve future sea-level projections, we simulated ice sheet behavior until 2100, initializing the model with observed geometry and using various climate models. Predictions indicate a sea-level rise of 32 to 228 mm by 2100, with climate model uncertainty being the main source of variability in projections.
Emily Glen, Amber Leeson, Alison F. Banwell, Jennifer Maddalena, Diarmuid Corr, Olivia Atkins, Brice Noël, and Malcolm McMillan
The Cryosphere, 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1047-2025, 2025
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We compare surface meltwater features from optical satellite imagery in the Russell–Leverett glacier catchment during high (2019) and low (2018) melt years. In the high melt year, features appear at higher elevations, meltwater systems are more connected, small lakes are more frequent, and slush is more widespread. These findings provide insights into how a warming climate, where high melt years become common, could alter meltwater distribution and dynamics on the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Shin Sugiyama, Shun Tsutaki, Daiki Sakakibara, Izumi Asaji, Ken Kondo, Yefan Wang, Evgeny Podolskiy, Guillaume Jouvet, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 19, 525–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-525-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-525-2025, 2025
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We report flow speed variations near the front of a tidewater glacier in Greenland. Ice flow near the glacier front is crucial for the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, but in situ data are hard to obtain. Our unique in situ GPS data revealed fine details of short-term speed variations associated with melting, ocean tides, and rain. The results are important for understanding the response of tidewater glaciers to changing environments, such as warming, more frequent rain, and ice thinning.
Michele Petrini, Meike D. W. Scherrenberg, Laura Muntjewerf, Miren Vizcaino, Raymond Sellevold, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Heiko Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025
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Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland.
Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, and Niklas Boers
The Cryosphere, 18, 5825–5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024, 2024
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Using the latest climate models, we update the understanding of how the Greenland ice sheet responds to climate changes. We found that precipitation and temperature changes in Greenland vary across different regions. Our findings suggest that using uniform estimates for temperature and precipitation for modelling the response of the ice sheet can overestimate ice loss in Greenland. Therefore, this study highlights the need for spatially resolved data in predicting the ice sheet's future.
Alexander C. Ronan, Robert L. Hawley, and Jonathan W. Chipman
The Cryosphere, 18, 5673–5683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5673-2024, 2024
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We generate a 2010–2021 time series of CryoSat-2 waveform shape metrics on the Greenland Ice Sheet, and we compare it to CryoSat-2 elevation data to investigate the reliability of two algorithms used to derive elevations from the SIRAL radar altimeter. Retracked elevations are found to depend on a waveform's leading-edge width in the dry-snow zone. The study indicates that retracking algorithms must consider significant climate events and snow conditions when assessing elevation change.
Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas Champollion, Romain Millan, Heiko Goelzer, and Jérémie Mouginot
The Cryosphere, 18, 5519–5550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024, 2024
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Inspired by a previous intercomparison framework, our study better constrains uncertainties in glacier evolution using an innovative method to validate Bayesian calibration. Upernavik Isstrøm, one of Greenland's largest glaciers, has lost significant mass since 1985. By integrating observational data, climate models, human emissions, and internal model parameters, we project its evolution until 2100. We show that future human emissions are the main source of uncertainty in 2100, making up half.
Jonas Kvist Andersen, Rasmus Probst Meyer, Flora Salome Huiban, Mads Lykke Dømgaard, Romain Millan, and Anders Anker Bjørk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3382, 2024
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Storstrømmen Glacier in northeast Greenland goes through cycles of sudden flow speed-ups (known as surges) followed by long quiet phases. Currently in its quiet phase, recent measurements suggest it may be nearing conditions for a new surge, possibly between 2027 and 2040. We also observed several lake drainages that caused brief increases in glacier flow but did not trigger a surge. Continued monitoring is essential to understand how these processes influence glacier behavior.
Emma Pearce, Dimitri Zigone, Coen Hofstede, Andreas Fichtner, Joachim Rimpot, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Johannes Freitag, and Olaf Eisen
The Cryosphere, 18, 4917–4932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4917-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4917-2024, 2024
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Our study near EastGRIP camp in Greenland shows varying firn properties by direction (crucial for studying ice stream stability, structure, surface mass balance, and past climate conditions). We used dispersion curve analysis of Love and Rayleigh waves to show firn is nonuniform along and across the flow of an ice stream due to wind patterns, seasonal variability, and the proximity to the edge of the ice stream. This method better informs firn structure, advancing ice stream understanding.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Srinidhi N. Gadde, Maurice van Tiggelen, Tijmen van der Drift, Erik van Meijgaard, Lambertus H. van Ulft, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4065–4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4065-2024, 2024
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We present a new version of the polar Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), version 2.4p1, and show first results for Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic. We provide an overview of all changes and investigate the impact that they have on the climate of polar regions. By comparing the results with observations and the output from the previous model version, we show that the model performs well regarding the surface mass balance of the ice sheets and near-surface climate.
Erik Loebel, Mirko Scheinert, Martin Horwath, Angelika Humbert, Julia Sohn, Konrad Heidler, Charlotte Liebezeit, and Xiao Xiang Zhu
The Cryosphere, 18, 3315–3332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3315-2024, 2024
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Comprehensive datasets of calving-front changes are essential for studying and modeling outlet glaciers. Current records are limited in temporal resolution due to manual delineation. We use deep learning to automatically delineate calving fronts for 23 glaciers in Greenland. Resulting time series resolve long-term, seasonal, and subseasonal patterns. We discuss the implications of our results and provide the cryosphere community with a data product and an implementation of our processing system.
Anja Rutishauser, Kirk M. Scanlan, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nanna B. Karlsson, Nicolas Jullien, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Robert S. Fausto, and Penelope How
The Cryosphere, 18, 2455–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2455-2024, 2024
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The Greenland Ice Sheet interior is covered by a layer of firn, which is important for surface meltwater runoff and contributions to global sea-level rise. Here, we combine airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry measurements to delineate vertically homogeneous and heterogeneous firn. Our results reveal changes in firn between 2011–2019, aligning well with known climatic events. This approach can be used to outline firn areas primed for significantly changing future meltwater runoff.
Guy J. G. Paxman, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Aisling M. Dolan, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1467–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, 2024
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This study uses airborne radar data and satellite imagery to map mountainous topography hidden beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the landscape records the former extent and configuration of ice masses that were restricted to areas of high topography. Computer models of ice flow indicate that valley glaciers eroded this landscape millions of years ago when local air temperatures were at least 4 °C higher than today and Greenland’s ice volume was < 10 % of that of the modern ice sheet.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
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The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
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The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Lauren D. Rawlins, David M. Rippin, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Kang Yang
The Cryosphere, 17, 4729–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, 2023
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We map and quantify surface rivers and lakes at Humboldt Glacier to examine seasonal evolution and provide new insights of network configuration and behaviour. A widespread supraglacial drainage network exists, expanding up the glacier as seasonal runoff increases. Large interannual variability affects the areal extent of this network, controlled by high- vs. low-melt years, with late summer network persistence likely preconditioning the surface for earlier drainage activity the following year.
Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, 2023
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We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
Johanna Beckmann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023
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Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events.
With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent.
Strong melt events may considerably contribute to Greenland's mass loss, which in turn strongly determines future sea level rise. How important these extreme melt events could be in the future is assessed in this study for the first time.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Ole Zeising, Martin Rückamp, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Erik Loebel, Jörg Brauchle, Karsten Stebner, Dietmar Gross, Rabea Sondershaus, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 17, 2851–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, 2023
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The largest floating glacier mass in Greenland, the 79° N Glacier, is showing signs of instability. We investigate how crack formation at the glacier's calving front has changed over the last decades by using satellite imagery and airborne data. The calving front is about to lose contact to stabilizing ice islands. Simulations show that the glacier will accelerate as a result of this, leading to an increase in ice discharge of more than 5.1 % if its calving front retreats by 46 %.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Yubin Fan, Chang-Qing Ke, Xiaoyi Shen, Yao Xiao, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Andrew J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 17, 1775–1786, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, 2023
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We used the new-generation ICESat-2 altimeter to detect and monitor active subglacial lakes in unprecedented spatiotemporal detail. We created a new inventory of 18 active subglacial lakes as well as their elevation and volume changes during 2019–2020, which provides an improved understanding of how the Greenland subglacial water system operates and how these lakes are fed by water from the ice surface.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 17, 309–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, 2023
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We characterized short-lived episodes of ice mélange weakening (IMW) at the front of three major Greenland outlet glaciers. Through a continuous detection at the front of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier during the June-to-September period from 2018 to 2021, we found that 87 % of the IMW episodes occurred prior to a large-scale calving event. Using a simple model for ice mélange motion, we further characterized the IMW process as self-sustained through the existence of an IMW–calving feedback.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 17, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, 2023
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The frontal positions of most ice-sheet-based glaciers in Greenland vary seasonally. On average, these glaciers begin retreating in May and begin advancing in October, and the difference between their most advanced and most retreated positions is 220 m. The timing may be related to the timing of melt on the ice sheet, and the seasonal length variation may be related to glacier speed. These seasonal variations can affect glacier behavior and, consequently, how much ice is lost from the ice sheet.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, and Ian M. Howat
The Cryosphere, 16, 4679–4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022, 2022
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We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
Evan Carnahan, Ginny Catania, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 16, 4305–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, 2022
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The Greenland Ice Sheet primarily loses mass through increased ice discharge. We find changes in discharge from outlet glaciers are initiated by ocean warming, which causes a change in the balance of forces resisting gravity and leads to acceleration. Vulnerable conditions for sustained retreat and acceleration are predetermined by the glacier-fjord geometry and exist around Greenland, suggesting increases in ice discharge may be sustained into the future despite a pause in ocean warming.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
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The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
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Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Michael Studinger, Serdar S. Manizade, Matthew A. Linkswiler, and James K. Yungel
The Cryosphere, 16, 3649–3668, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, 2022
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The footprint density and high-resolution imagery of airborne surveys reveal details in supraglacial hydrological features that are currently not obtainable from spaceborne data. The accuracy and resolution of airborne measurements complement spaceborne measurements, can support calibration and validation of spaceborne methods, and provide information necessary for process studies of the hydrological system on ice sheets that currently cannot be achieved from spaceborne observations alone.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Michael A. Cooper, Paulina Lewińska, William A. P. Smith, Edwin R. Hancock, Julian A. Dowdeswell, and David M. Rippin
The Cryosphere, 16, 2449–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, 2022
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Here we use old photographs gathered several decades ago to expand the temporal record of glacier change in part of East Greenland. This is important because the longer the record of past glacier change, the better we are at predicting future glacier behaviour. Our work also shows that despite all these glaciers retreating, the rate at which they do this varies markedly. It is therefore important to consider outlet glaciers from Greenland individually to take account of this differing behaviour.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Martin Rückamp, Thomas Kleiner, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, 2022
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We present a comparative modelling study between the full-Stokes (FS) and Blatter–Pattyn (BP) approximation applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Both stress regimes are implemented in one single ice sheet code to eliminate numerical issues. The simulations unveil minor differences in the upper ice stream but become considerable at the grounding line of the 79° North Glacier. Model differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law.
Daniel Clarkson, Emma Eastoe, and Amber Leeson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1597–1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, 2022
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The Greenland ice sheet has seen large amounts of melt in recent years, and accurately modelling temperatures is vital to understand how much of the ice sheet is melting. We estimate the probability of melt from ice surface temperature data to identify which areas of the ice sheet have experienced melt and estimate temperature quantiles. Our results suggest that for large areas of the ice sheet, melt has become more likely over the past 2 decades and high temperatures are also becoming warmer.
Benjamin Joseph Davison, Tom Cowton, Andrew Sole, Finlo Cottier, and Pete Nienow
The Cryosphere, 16, 1181–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, 2022
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The ocean is an important driver of Greenland glacier retreat. Icebergs influence ocean temperature in the vicinity of glaciers, which will affect glacier retreat rates, but the effect of icebergs on water temperature is poorly understood. In this study, we use a model to show that icebergs cause large changes to water properties next to Greenland's glaciers, which could influence ocean-driven glacier retreat around Greenland.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 16, 807–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, 2022
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We used satellite images to create a comprehensive record of annual glacier change in northwest Greenland from 1972 through 2021. We found that nearly all glaciers in our study area have retreated and glacier retreat accelerated from around 1996. Comparing these results with climate data, we found that glacier retreat is most sensitive to water runoff and moderately sensitive to ocean temperatures. These can affect glacier fronts in several ways, so no process clearly dominates glacier retreat.
Katharina M. Holube, Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, 2022
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We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.
David W. Ashmore, Douglas W. F. Mair, Jonathan E. Higham, Stephen Brough, James M. Lea, and Isabel J. Nias
The Cryosphere, 16, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, 2022
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In this paper we explore the use of a transferrable and flexible statistical technique to try and untangle the multiple influences on marine-terminating glacier dynamics, as measured from space. We decompose a satellite-derived ice velocity record into ranked sets of static maps and temporal coefficients. We present evidence that the approach can identify velocity variability mainly driven by changes in terminus position and velocity variation mainly driven by subglacial hydrological processes.
Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021
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Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, Andrea Walter, Guillaume Jouvet, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 5659–5674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, 2021
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We developed a novel automated method for the detection and the quantification of ocean waves generated by glacier calving. This method was applied to data recorded with a terrestrial radar interferometer at Eqip Sermia, Greenland. Results show a high calving activity at the glacier front sector ending in deep water linked with more frequent meltwater plumes. This suggests that rising subglacial meltwater plumes strongly affect glacier calving in deep water, but weakly in shallow water.
Joel Harper, Toby Meierbachtol, Neil Humphrey, Jun Saito, and Aidan Stansberry
The Cryosphere, 15, 5409–5421, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5409-2021, 2021
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We use surface and borehole measurements to investigate the generation and fate of basal meltwater in the ablation zone of western Greenland. The rate of basal meltwater generation at borehole study sites increases by up to 20 % over the winter period. Accommodation of all basal meltwater by expansion of isolated subglacial cavities is implausible. Other sinks for water do not likely balance basal meltwater generation, implying water evacuation through a connected drainage system in winter.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
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Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Tamara Annina Gerber, Christine Schøtt Hvidberg, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Steven Franke, Giulia Sinnl, Aslak Grinsted, Daniela Jansen, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
The Cryosphere, 15, 3655–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, 2021
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We simulate the ice flow in the onset region of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to determine the source area and past accumulation rates of ice found in the EastGRIP ice core. This information is required to correct for bias in ice-core records introduced by the upstream flow effects. Our results reveal that the increasing accumulation rate with increasing upstream distance is predominantly responsible for the constant annual layer thicknesses observed in the upper 900 m of the ice core.
Ole Zeising and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 3119–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3119-2021, 2021
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Greenland’s largest ice stream – the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) – extends far into the interior of the ice sheet. Basal meltwater acts as a lubricant for glaciers and sustains sliding. Hence, observations of basal melt rates are of high interest. We performed two time series of precise ground-based radar measurements in the upstream region of NEGIS and found high melt rates of 0.19 ± 0.04 m per year.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
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Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
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Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 15, 2917–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, 2021
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We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and the energy balance model of the Greenland ice sheet for the cold period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day climate. The results show that the model sensitivity changes with climate. While for present-day simulations inclusions of sublimation and hoar formation are of minor importance, they cannot be neglected during the LGM. To simulate the surface mass balance over long timescales, a water vapor scheme is necessary.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
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We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Cited articles
Alexander, P. M., Tedesco, M., Fettweis, X., van de Wal, R. S. W., Smeets, C. J. P. P., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Assessing spatio-temporal variability and trends in modelled and measured Greenland Ice Sheet albedo (2000–2013), The Cryosphere, 8, 2293–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2293-2014, 2014. a
Alexander, P. M., LeGrande, A. N., Fischer, E., Tedesco, M., Fettweis, X.,
Kelley, M., Nowicki, S. M. J., and Schmidt, G. A.: Simulated Greenland
Surface Mass Balance in the GISS ModelE2 GCM: Role of the Ice Sheet Surface,
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Short summary
We evaluate a downscaling method to calculate ice sheet surface mass balance with global climate models, despite their coarse resolution. We compare it with high-resolution climate modeling. Despite absence of fine-scale simulation of individual energy and mass contributors, the method provides realistic vertical SMB gradients that can be used in forcing of ice sheet models, e.g., for sea level projections. Also, the climate model simulation is improved with the method implemented interactively.
We evaluate a downscaling method to calculate ice sheet surface mass balance with global climate...
