Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-319-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-319-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jan 2017
Research article |
| 31 Jan 2017
Marine ice sheet model performance depends on basal sliding physics and sub-shelf melting
Rupert Michael Gladstone
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
VAW, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, ETHZ, Zürich, Switzerland
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Roland Charles Warner
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
Olivier Gagliardini
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Thomas Zwinger
CSC – IT Center for Science Ltd., Espoo, Finland
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
Related authors
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
Yiliang Ma, Liyun Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Totten Glacier in Antarctica holds a sea level potential of 3.85 m. Basal sliding and sub-shelf melt rate have important impact on ice sheet dynamics. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier using an ice flow model with different basal sliding parameterizations as well as sub-shelf melt rates to quantify their effect on the projections. We found the modelled glacier retreat and mass loss is sensitive to the choice of basal sliding parameterizations and maximal sub-shelf melt rate.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, and Tore Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Roland Warner
The Cryosphere, 16, 1221–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf and its spatial pattern are evaluated and analysed through temperature observations from six boreholes and numerical simulations. The simulations demonstrate significant ice warming downstream along the ice flow and a great variation of the thermal structure across the ice flow. We suggest that the thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf is unlikely to be affected by current climate changes on decadal timescales.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Xiaoran Guo, Liyun Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Sainan Sun, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 13, 3139–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, 2019
Rupert M. Gladstone, Yuwei Xia, and John Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 3605–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models for the simulation of marine ice sheets (ice sheets resting on bedrock below sea level) historically show poor numerical convergence for grounding line (the boundary between grounded and floating parts of the ice sheet) movement. We have further characterised the nature of the numerical problems leading to poor convergence and highlighted implications for the design of computer experiments that test grounding line movement.
Chen Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Roland C. Warner, Matt A. King, Thomas Zwinger, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 2637–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A combination of computer modelling and observational data were used to infer the resistance to ice flow at the bed of the Fleming Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula. The model was also used to simulate the distribution of temperature within the ice, which governs the rate at which the ice can deform. This is especially important for glaciers like the Fleming Glacier, which has both regions of rapid deformation and regions of rapid sliding at the bed.
Chen Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Roland C. Warner, Matt A. King, Thomas Zwinger, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 2653–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A combination of computer modelling and observational data were used to infer the resistance to ice flow at the bed of the Fleming Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula in both 2008 and 2015. The comparison suggests the grounding line retreated by ~ 9 km from 2008 to 2015. The retreat may be enhanced by a positive feedback between friction, melting and sliding at the glacier bed.
Lenneke M. Jong, Rupert M. Gladstone, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Matt A. King
The Cryosphere, 12, 2425–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2425-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We used an ice sheet model to simulate temporary regrounding of a marine ice sheet retreating across a retrograde bedrock slope. We show that a sliding relation incorporating water-filled cavities and the ice overburden pressure at the base allows the temporary regrounding to occur. This suggests that choice of basal sliding relation can be important when modelling grounding line behaviour of regions where potential ice rises and pinning points are present and regrounding could occur.
Yongmei Gong, Thomas Zwinger, Jan Åström, Bas Altena, Thomas Schellenberger, Rupert Gladstone, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 1563–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we apply a discrete element model capable of simulating ice fracturing. A microscopic-scale discrete process is applied in addition to a continuum ice dynamics model to investigate the mechanisms facilitated by basal meltwater production, surface meltwater and ice crack opening, for the surge in Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap. The discrete element model is used to locate the ice cracks that can penetrate though the full thickness of the glacier and deliver surface water to the bed.
Sainan Sun, Stephen L. Cornford, John C. Moore, Rupert Gladstone, and Liyun Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 2543–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The buttressing effect of the floating ice shelves is diminished by the fracture process. We developed a continuum damage mechanics model component of the ice sheet model to simulate the process. The model is tested on an ideal marine ice sheet geometry. We find that behavior of the simulated marine ice sheet is sensitive to fracture processes on the ice shelf, and the stiffness of ice around the grounding line is essential to ice sheet evolution.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
M. Schäfer, F. Gillet-Chaulet, R. Gladstone, R. Pettersson, V. A. Pohjola, T. Strozzi, and T. Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 8, 1951–1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1951-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1951-2014, 2014
R. Gladstone, M. Schäfer, T. Zwinger, Y. Gong, T. Strozzi, R. Mottram, F. Boberg, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 1393–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, 2014
Juan-Pedro Roldán-Blasco, Adrien Gilbert, Luc Piard, Florent Gimbert, Christian Vincent, Olivier Gagliardini, Anuar Togaibekov, Andrea Walpersdorf, and Nathan Maier
The Cryosphere, 19, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The flow of glaciers and ice sheets results from ice deformation and basal sliding driven by gravitational forces. Quantifying the rate at which ice deforms under its own weight is critical for assessing glacier evolution. This study uses borehole instrumentation in an Alpine glacier to quantify ice deformation and constrain ice viscosity in a natural setting. Our results show that the viscosity of ice at 0 °C is largely influenced by interstitial liquid water, which enhances ice deformation.
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Iain Wheel, Douglas I. Benn, Anna J. Crawford, Joe Todd, and Thomas Zwinger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5759–5777, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Calving, the detachment of large icebergs from glaciers, is one of the largest uncertainties in future sea level rise projections. This process is poorly understood, and there is an absence of detailed models capable of simulating calving. A new 3D calving model has been developed to better understand calving at glaciers where detailed modelling was previously limited. Importantly, the new model is very flexible. By allowing for unrestricted calving geometries, it can be applied at any location.
Yiliang Ma, Liyun Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Totten Glacier in Antarctica holds a sea level potential of 3.85 m. Basal sliding and sub-shelf melt rate have important impact on ice sheet dynamics. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier using an ice flow model with different basal sliding parameterizations as well as sub-shelf melt rates to quantify their effect on the projections. We found the modelled glacier retreat and mass loss is sensitive to the choice of basal sliding parameterizations and maximal sub-shelf melt rate.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Denis Cohen, Guillaume Jouvet, Thomas Zwinger, Angela Landgraf, and Urs H. Fischer
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 72, 189–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-189-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-189-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
During glacial times in Switzerland, glaciers of the Alps excavated valleys in low-lying regions that were later filled with sediment or water. How glaciers eroded these valleys is not well understood because erosion occurred near ice margins where ice moved slowly and was present for short times. Erosion is linked to the speed of ice and to water flowing under it. Here we present a model that estimates the location of water channels beneath the ice and links these locations to zones of erosion.
Maryam Zarrinderakht, Christian Schoof, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-807, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We used a model to study how crevasses propagate in ice shelves. Our model combines a viscous model and a fracture mechanics model. We studied periodic crevasses on an ice shelf being stretched. We show that existing models based only on stress cannot fully explain how crevasses grow and lead to iceberg calving. This model can be a useful tool to train a low-dimensional representation calving law for an ice sheet model.
Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, and Tore Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Roland Warner
The Cryosphere, 16, 1221–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf and its spatial pattern are evaluated and analysed through temperature observations from six boreholes and numerical simulations. The simulations demonstrate significant ice warming downstream along the ice flow and a great variation of the thermal structure across the ice flow. We suggest that the thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf is unlikely to be affected by current climate changes on decadal timescales.
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve
The Cryosphere, 15, 3637–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
Christian Vincent, Diego Cusicanqui, Bruno Jourdain, Olivier Laarman, Delphine Six, Adrien Gilbert, Andrea Walpersdorf, Antoine Rabatel, Luc Piard, Florent Gimbert, Olivier Gagliardini, Vincent Peyaud, Laurent Arnaud, Emmanuel Thibert, Fanny Brun, and Ugo Nanni
The Cryosphere, 15, 1259–1276, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1259-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In situ glacier point mass balance data are crucial to assess climate change in different regions of the world. Unfortunately, these data are rare because huge efforts are required to conduct in situ measurements on glaciers. Here, we propose a new approach from remote sensing observations. The method has been tested on the Argentière and Mer de Glace glaciers (France). It should be possible to apply this method to high-spatial-resolution satellite images and on numerous glaciers in the world.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Vincent Peyaud, Coline Bouchayer, Olivier Gagliardini, Christian Vincent, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Delphine Six, and Olivier Laarman
The Cryosphere, 14, 3979–3994, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3979-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Alpine glaciers are retreating at an accelerating rate in a warming climate. Numerical models allow us to study and anticipate these changes, but the performance of a model is difficult to evaluate. So we compared an ice flow model with the long dataset of observations obtained between 1979 and 2015 on Mer de Glace (Mont Blanc area). The model accurately reconstructs the past evolution of the glacier. We simulate the future evolution of Mer de Glace; it could retreat by 2 to 6 km by 2050.
Christopher Chambers, Ralf Greve, Bas Altena, and Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre
The Cryosphere, 14, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3747-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3747-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The topography of the rock below the Greenland ice sheet is not well known. One long valley appears as a line of dips because of incomplete data. So we use ice model simulations that unblock this valley, and these create a watercourse that may represent a form of river over 1000 km long under the ice. When we melt ice at the bottom of the ice sheet only in the deep interior, water can flow down the valley only when the valley is unblocked. It may have developed while an ice sheet was present.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Montoya, Heiko Goelzer, Ralf Greve, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Here we describe Yelmo v1.0, an intuitive and state-of-the-art hybrid ice sheet model. The model design and physics are described, and benchmark simulations are provided to validate its performance. Yelmo is a versatile ice sheet model that can be applied to a wide variety of problems.
Liz C. Logan, Sri Hari Krishna Narayanan, Ralf Greve, and Patrick Heimbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1845–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1845-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new capability has been developed for the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) that enables the generation of derivative code, such as tangent linear or adjoint models, by means of algorithmic differentiation. It relies on the source transformation algorithmic (AD) differentiation tool OpenAD. The reverse mode of AD provides the adjoint model, SICOPOLIS-AD, which may be applied for comprehensive sensitivity analyses as well as gradient-based optimization.
Thomas Zwinger, Grace A. Nield, Juha Ruokolainen, and Matt A. King
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1155–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1155-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1155-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a newly developed flat-earth model, Elmer/Earth, for viscoelastic treatment of solid earth deformation under ice loads. Unlike many previous approaches with proprietary software, this model is based on the open-source FEM code Elmer, with the advantage for scientists to apply and alter the model without license constraints. The new-generation full-stress ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice shares the same code base, enabling future coupled ice-sheet–glacial-isostatic-adjustment simulations.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Xiaoran Guo, Liyun Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Sainan Sun, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 13, 3139–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, 2019
Shahbaz Memon, Dorothée Vallot, Thomas Zwinger, Jan Åström, Helmut Neukirchen, Morris Riedel, and Matthias Book
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3001–3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Scientific workflows enable complex scientific computational scenarios, which include data intensive scenarios, parametric executions, and interactive simulations. In this article, we applied the UNICORE workflow management system to automate a formerly hard-coded coupling of a glacier flow model and a calving model, which contain many tasks and dependencies, ranging from pre-processing and data management to repetitive executions on heterogeneous high-performance computing (HPC) resources.
Joe Todd, Poul Christoffersen, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, and Douglas I. Benn
The Cryosphere, 13, 1681–1694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1681-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Greenland Ice Sheet loses 30 %–60 % of its ice due to iceberg calving. Calving processes and their links to climate are not well understood or incorporated into numerical models of glaciers. Here we use a new 3-D calving model to investigate calving at Store Glacier, West Greenland, and test its sensitivity to increased submarine melting and reduced support from ice mélange (sea ice and icebergs). We find Store remains fairly stable despite these changes, but less so in the southern side.
Lionel Favier, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Adrian Jenkins, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2255–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2255-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The melting at the base of floating ice shelves is the main driver of the Antarctic ice sheet current retreat. Here, we use an ideal set-up to assess a wide range of melting parameterisations depending on oceanic properties with regard to a new ocean–ice-sheet coupled model, published here for the first time. A parameterisation that depends quadratically on thermal forcing in both a local and a non-local way yields the best results and needs to be further assessed with more realistic set-ups.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Julien Brondex, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 13, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-177-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-177-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we apply a synthetic perturbation to the most active drainage basin of Antarctica and show that centennial mass loss projections obtained through ice flow models depend strongly on the implemented friction law, i.e. the mathematical relationship between basal drag and sliding velocities. In particular, the commonly used Weertman law considerably underestimates the sea-level contribution of this basin in comparison to two water pressure-dependent laws which rely on stronger physical bases.
Sue Cook, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, and Richard Coleman
The Cryosphere, 12, 3853–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3853-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3853-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
When the porous compacted snow layers on an ice shelf extend below sea level, seawater is able to infiltrate onto the shelf. Here it can affect measurements of ice shelf thickness by changing the average density and affect iceberg calving if the seawater enters fractures. Seawater infiltration has only been directly observed in a few locations around Antarctica. Using continent-wide geometry and snow density data we show that it may be more widespread than previously realised.
Rupert M. Gladstone, Yuwei Xia, and John Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 3605–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models for the simulation of marine ice sheets (ice sheets resting on bedrock below sea level) historically show poor numerical convergence for grounding line (the boundary between grounded and floating parts of the ice sheet) movement. We have further characterised the nature of the numerical problems leading to poor convergence and highlighted implications for the design of computer experiments that test grounding line movement.
Eef C. H. van Dongen, Nina Kirchner, Martin B. van Gijzen, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Thomas Zwinger, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, and Lina von Sydow
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4563–4576, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are used, especially when modeling an ice sheet on long time spans. Here, we report a combination of an approximation with the FS equations that allows simulating the dynamics of ice sheets over long time spans without introducing artifacts caused by application of approximations in parts of the domain where they are not valid.
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
Chen Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Roland C. Warner, Matt A. King, Thomas Zwinger, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 2637–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A combination of computer modelling and observational data were used to infer the resistance to ice flow at the bed of the Fleming Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula. The model was also used to simulate the distribution of temperature within the ice, which governs the rate at which the ice can deform. This is especially important for glaciers like the Fleming Glacier, which has both regions of rapid deformation and regions of rapid sliding at the bed.
Chen Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Roland C. Warner, Matt A. King, Thomas Zwinger, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 2653–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A combination of computer modelling and observational data were used to infer the resistance to ice flow at the bed of the Fleming Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula in both 2008 and 2015. The comparison suggests the grounding line retreated by ~ 9 km from 2008 to 2015. The retreat may be enhanced by a positive feedback between friction, melting and sliding at the glacier bed.
Marianne Haseloff, Christian Schoof, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 12, 2545–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2545-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2545-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The widths of the Siple Coast ice streams evolve on decadal to centennial timescales. We investigate how the rate of thermally driven ice stream widening depends on heat dissipation in the ice stream margin and at the bed, and on the inflow of cold ice from the ice ridge. As determining the migration rate requires resolving heat transfer processes on very small scales, we derive a parametrization of the migration rate in terms of parameters that are available from large-scale model outputs.
Lenneke M. Jong, Rupert M. Gladstone, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Matt A. King
The Cryosphere, 12, 2425–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2425-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We used an ice sheet model to simulate temporary regrounding of a marine ice sheet retreating across a retrograde bedrock slope. We show that a sliding relation incorporating water-filled cavities and the ice overburden pressure at the base allows the temporary regrounding to occur. This suggests that choice of basal sliding relation can be important when modelling grounding line behaviour of regions where potential ice rises and pinning points are present and regrounding could occur.
Sue Cook, Jan Åström, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Jamin Stevens Greenbaum, and Richard Coleman
The Cryosphere, 12, 2401–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2401-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2401-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The growth of fractures on Antarctic ice shelves is important because it controls the amount of ice lost as icebergs. We use a model constructed of multiple interconnected blocks to predict the locations where fractures will form on the Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. The results show that iceberg calving is controlled not only by fractures forming near the front of the ice shelf but also by fractures which formed many kilometres upstream.
Olivier Passalacqua, Marie Cavitte, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Frédéric Parrenin, Catherine Ritz, and Duncan Young
The Cryosphere, 12, 2167–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2167-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2167-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Locating a suitable drill site is a key step in the Antarctic oldest-ice challenge. Here we have conducted a 3-D ice flow simulation in the region of Dome C using a refined bedrock description. Five selection criteria are computed that together provide an objective overview on the local ice flow conditions. We delineate kilometer-scale favorable areas that overlap with the ones recently proposed by another group. We propose a few drill sites that should be surveyed during the next field seasons.
Yongmei Gong, Thomas Zwinger, Jan Åström, Bas Altena, Thomas Schellenberger, Rupert Gladstone, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 1563–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we apply a discrete element model capable of simulating ice fracturing. A microscopic-scale discrete process is applied in addition to a continuum ice dynamics model to investigate the mechanisms facilitated by basal meltwater production, surface meltwater and ice crack opening, for the surge in Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap. The discrete element model is used to locate the ice cracks that can penetrate though the full thickness of the glacier and deliver surface water to the bed.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Felicity S. Graham, Mathieu Morlighem, Roland C. Warner, and Adam Treverrow
The Cryosphere, 12, 1047–1067, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheet flow is anisotropic, depending on the nature of the stress applied. However, most large-scale ice sheet models rely on the Glen flow relation, which ignores anisotropic effects. We implement a flow relation (ESTAR) for anisotropic ice in a large-scale ice sheet model. In ice shelf simulations, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % compared with ESTAR. Our results have implications for ice sheet model simulations of paleo-ice extent and sea level rise prediction.
Dorothée Vallot, Jan Åström, Thomas Zwinger, Rickard Pettersson, Alistair Everett, Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Faezeh Nick, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 12, 609–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-609-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-609-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new perspective on the role of ice dynamics and ocean interaction in glacier calving processes applied to Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard. A global modelling approach includes ice flow modelling, undercutting estimation by a combination of glacier energy balance and plume modelling as well as calving by a discrete particle model. We show that modelling undercutting is necessary and calving is influenced by basal friction velocity and geometry.
Sainan Sun, Stephen L. Cornford, John C. Moore, Rupert Gladstone, and Liyun Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 2543–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The buttressing effect of the floating ice shelves is diminished by the fracture process. We developed a continuum damage mechanics model component of the ice sheet model to simulate the process. The model is tested on an ideal marine ice sheet geometry. We find that behavior of the simulated marine ice sheet is sensitive to fracture processes on the ice shelf, and the stiffness of ice around the grounding line is essential to ice sheet evolution.
Frédéric Parrenin, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Donald D. Blankenship, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, Olivier Gagliardini, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Olivier Passalacqua, Catherine Ritz, Jason Roberts, Martin J. Siegert, and Duncan A. Young
The Cryosphere, 11, 2427–2437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2427-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2427-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The oldest dated deep ice core drilled in Antarctica has been retrieved at EPICA Dome C (EDC), reaching ~ 800 000 years. Obtaining an older palaeoclimatic record from Antarctica is one of the greatest challenges of the ice core community. Here, we estimate the age of basal ice in the Dome C area. We find that old ice (> 1.5 Myr) likely exists in two regions a few tens of kilometres away from EDC:
Little Dome C Patchand
North Patch.
Hakime Seddik, Ralf Greve, Thomas Zwinger, and Shin Sugiyama
The Cryosphere, 11, 2213–2229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2213-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2213-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Shirase Glacier in Antarctica is studied by means of a computer model. This model implements two physical approaches to represent the glacier flow dynamics. This study finds that it is important to use the more precise and sophisticated method in order to better understand and predict the evolution of fast flowing glaciers. This may be important to more accurately predict the sea level change due to global warming.
Jorge Bernales, Irina Rogozhina, Ralf Greve, and Maik Thomas
The Cryosphere, 11, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study offers a hard test to the models commonly used to simulate an ice sheet evolution over multimillenial timescales. Using an example of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, we evaluate the performance of such models against observations and highlight a strong impact of different approaches towards modeling rapidly flowing ice sectors. In particular, our results show that inferences of previous studies may need significant adjustments to be adopted by a different type of ice sheet models.
Tong Zhang, Stephen Price, Lili Ju, Wei Leng, Julien Brondex, Gaël Durand, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 11, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-179-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-179-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Stokes-flow models are the highest-fidelity representation of the equations governing ice sheet flow and they are often treated as the standard against which other models are compared in model benchmark activities. We compare two different Stokes models applied to a canonical set of idealized marine ice sheet experiments and demonstrate that the solutions converge with increasing grid resolution. This provides confidence in the use of Stokes models for generating test case solution metrics.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
Olivier Passalacqua, Olivier Gagliardini, Frédéric Parrenin, Joe Todd, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2301–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2301-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2301-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In ice-flow modelling, computing in 3-D requires a lot of resources, but 2-D models lack physical likelihood when the flow is diverging. That is why 2-D models accounting for the divergence, so-called 2.5-D models, are an interesting trade-off. However, the applicability of these 2.5-D models has never been systematically examined. We show that these models are ineffective in the case of highly diverging flows, but also for varying temperature, which was not suspected.
O. Gagliardini, J. Brondex, F. Gillet-Chaulet, L. Tavard, V. Peyaud, and G. Durand
The Cryosphere, 10, 307–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-307-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-307-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper it is shown that the sensitivity to the mesh resolution is not
improved for a vanishing friction at the grounding line (GL). For a discontinuous friction at the GL, we further show that the results are moreover very sensitive to the way the friction is interpolated in the close vicinity of the GL. In the light of these new insights, new results for the MISMIP3d experiments obtained for higher resolutions than previously published are made available for future comparisons.
T. Goelles, C. E. Bøggild, and R. Greve
The Cryosphere, 9, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1845-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1845-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Soot (black carbon) and dust particles darken the surface of ice sheets and glaciers as they accumulate. This causes more ice to melt, which releases more particles from within the ice. This positive feedback mechanism is studied with a new two-dimensional model, mimicking the conditions of Greenland, under different climate warming scenarios. In the warmest scenario, the additional ice sheet mass loss until the year 3000 is up to 7%.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
J. J. Fürst, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, N. Merino, L. Tavard, J. Mouginot, N. Gourmelen, and O. Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 9, 1427–1443, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1427-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1427-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present a comprehensive high-resolution assimilation of Antarctic surface velocities with a flow model. The inferred velocities are in very good agreement with observations, even when compared to recent studies on individual shelves. This quality allows to identify a pattern in the velocity mismatch that points at pinning points not present in the input geometry. We identify seven potential pinning points around Antarctica, for now uncharted, providing prominent resistance to the ice flow.
T. Zwinger, T. Malm, M. Schäfer, R. Stenberg, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 9, 1415–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1415-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1415-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
By deploying a large-scale high-resolution turbulent CFD simulation using the present-day topography of the Scharffenbergbotnen (SBB) valley, we show how the surrounding topography redirects incoming easterly katabatic storm fronts to impact the blue ice areas (BIA) inside the valley, where the snow cover frequently is removed. A further simulation of a reconstructed topography at the Late Glacial Maximum further reveals that the BIA at SBB must have formed after this period.
J. Krug, J. Weiss, O. Gagliardini, and G. Durand
The Cryosphere, 8, 2101–2117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2101-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2101-2014, 2014
M. Schäfer, F. Gillet-Chaulet, R. Gladstone, R. Pettersson, V. A. Pohjola, T. Strozzi, and T. Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 8, 1951–1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1951-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1951-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
R. Gladstone, M. Schäfer, T. Zwinger, Y. Gong, T. Strozzi, R. Mottram, F. Boberg, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 1393–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, 2014
B. Sun, J. C. Moore, T. Zwinger, L. Zhao, D. Steinhage, X. Tang, D. Zhang, X. Cui, and C. Martín
The Cryosphere, 8, 1121–1128, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1121-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1121-2014, 2014
S. Cook, I. C. Rutt, T. Murray, A. Luckman, T. Zwinger, N. Selmes, A. Goldsack, and T. D. James
The Cryosphere, 8, 827–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-827-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-827-2014, 2014
T. Zwinger, M. Schäfer, C. Martín, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 607–621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-607-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-607-2014, 2014
T. Sato, T. Shiraiwa, R. Greve, H. Seddik, E. Edelmann, and T. Zwinger
Clim. Past, 10, 393–404, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-393-2014, 2014
J. Krug, J. Weiss, O. Gagliardini, and G. Durand
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-1111-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-8-1111-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
A. Legchenko, C. Vincent, J. M. Baltassat, J. F. Girard, E. Thibert, O. Gagliardini, M. Descloitres, A. Gilbert, S. Garambois, A. Chevalier, and H. Guyard
The Cryosphere, 8, 155–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-155-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-155-2014, 2014
B. de Fleurian, O. Gagliardini, T. Zwinger, G. Durand, E. Le Meur, D. Mair, and P. Råback
The Cryosphere, 8, 137–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-137-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-137-2014, 2014
J. A. Åström, T. I. Riikilä, T. Tallinen, T. Zwinger, D. Benn, J. C. Moore, and J. Timonen
The Cryosphere, 7, 1591–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1591-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1591-2013, 2013
O. Gagliardini, T. Zwinger, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. Durand, L. Favier, B. de Fleurian, R. Greve, M. Malinen, C. Martín, P. Råback, J. Ruokolainen, M. Sacchettini, M. Schäfer, H. Seddik, and J. Thies
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1299–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1299-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1299-2013, 2013
A. S. Drouet, D. Docquier, G. Durand, R. Hindmarsh, F. Pattyn, O. Gagliardini, and T. Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 7, 395–406, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-395-2013, 2013
L. Zhao, L. Tian, T. Zwinger, R. Ding, J. Zong, Q. Ye, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-145-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-145-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
F. Gillet-Chaulet, O. Gagliardini, H. Seddik, M. Nodet, G. Durand, C. Ritz, T. Zwinger, R. Greve, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 6, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1561-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1561-2012, 2012
G. H. Gudmundsson, J. Krug, G. Durand, L. Favier, and O. Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 6, 1497–1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1497-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1497-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Numerical Modelling
A minimal machine-learning glacier mass balance model
Improving large-scale snow albedo modeling using a climatology of light-absorbing particle deposition
Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes
Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
A hybrid ice-mélange model based on particle and continuum methods
New glacier thickness and bed topography maps for Svalbard
Quantifying the buttressing contribution of landfast sea ice and melange to Crane Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula
Multi-physics ensemble modelling of Arctic tundra snowpack properties
Two-way coupling between ice flow and channelized subglacial drainage enhances modeled marine-ice-sheet retreat
Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations
Modelling snowpack on ice surfaces with the ORCHIDEE land surface model: application to the Greenland ice sheet
Application of a regularised Coulomb sliding law to Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland
Brief communication: Stalagmite damage by cave ice flow quantitatively assessed by fluid–structure interaction simulations
Exploring the decision-making process in model development: focus on the Arctic snowpack
Exploring the potential of forest snow modeling at the tree and snowpack layer scale
Simulating lake ice phenology using a coupled atmosphere–lake model at Nam Co, a typical deep alpine lake on the Tibetan Plateau
Modelling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting rates in frozen rock clefts
How many parameters are needed to represent polar sea ice surface patterns and heterogeneity?
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations
Analytical solutions for the advective–diffusive ice column in the presence of strain heating
Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes
Microstructure-based modelling of snow mechanics: experimental evaluation of the cone penetration test
The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast
Snow redistribution in an intermediate-complexity snow hydrology modelling framework
Glacier damage evolution over ice flow timescales
Increasing numerical stability of mountain valley glacier simulations: implementation and testing of free-surface stabilization in Elmer/Ice
Analyzing the sensitivity of a blowing snow model (SnowPappus) to precipitation forcing, blowing snow, and spatial resolution
Exploring non-Gaussian sea ice characteristics via observing system simulation experiments
Inter-model differences in 21st Century Glacier Runoff for the World’s Major River Basins
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models
Disentangling the drivers behind the post-2000 retreat of Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland (Jakobshavn Isbrae)
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift
Quantifying radiative effects of light–absorbing particles deposition on snow at the SnowMIP sites
A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard
Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic
Using Icepack to reproduce ice mass balance buoy observations in landfast ice: improvements from the mushy-layer thermodynamics
Modeling the timing of Patagonian Ice Sheet retreat in the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka
Understanding the influence of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation: a modeling study with an atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model
Sea ice cover in the Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming
Smoothed particle hydrodynamics implementation of the standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model and validation in simple idealized experiments
Coupled thermo–geophysical inversion for permafrost monitoring
Using specularity content to evaluate eight geothermal heat flow maps of Totten Glacier
Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Regularization and L-curves in ice sheet inverse models: a case study in the Filchner–Ronne catchment
Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)
Simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments with the CryoGrid community model
Reconciling ice dynamics and bed topography with a versatile and fast ice thickness inversion
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded
Marijn van der Meer, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Jordi Bolibar, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 19, 805–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat poses big challenges, making understanding how climate affects glaciers vital. But glacier measurements worldwide are limited. We created a simple machine-learning model called miniML-MB, which estimates annual changes in glacier mass in the Swiss Alps. As input, miniML-MB uses two climate variables: average temperature (May–Aug) and total precipitation (Oct–Feb). Our model can accurately predict glacier mass from 1961 to 2021 but struggles for extreme years (2022 and 2023).
Manon Gaillard, Vincent Vionnet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, and Paul Ginoux
The Cryosphere, 19, 769–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an efficient method to improve large-scale snow albedo simulations by considering the spatial variability in light-absorbing particles (LAPs) like black carbon and dust. A global climatology of LAP deposition was created and used to optimize a parameter in the Crocus snow model. Testing at 10 global sites improved albedo predictions by 10 % on average and over 25 % in the Arctic. This method can enhance other snow models' predictions without complex simulations.
Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert
The Cryosphere, 19, 685–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Saskia Kahl, Carolin Mehlmann, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 19, 129–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice mélange, a mixture of sea ice and icebergs, can impact sea-ice–ocean interactions. But climate models do not yet represent it due to computational limits. To address this shortcoming and include ice mélange into climate models, we suggest representing icebergs as particles. We integrate their feedback into mathematical equations used to model the sea-ice motion in climate models. The setup is computationally efficient due to the iceberg particle usage and enables a realistic representation.
Ward van Pelt and Thomas Frank
The Cryosphere, 19, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard's glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and a future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations to infer basal conditions. We present and analyse the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6800 km3), and compare these against radar data and previous studies.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
The Cryosphere, 18, 5789–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In 2022, multi-year landfast sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the fast ice was joined to the glacier terminus, it could provide resistance against the glacier's flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the fast ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Georgina J. Woolley, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Vincent Vionnet, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Philip Marsh, Rosamond Tutton, Branden Walker, Matthieu Lafaysse, and David Pritchard
The Cryosphere, 18, 5685–5711, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Parameterisations of Arctic snow processes were implemented into the multi-physics ensemble version of the snow model Crocus (embedded within the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow version 2 land surface model) and evaluated at an Arctic tundra site. Optimal combinations of parameterisations that improved the simulation of density and specific surface area featured modifications that raise wind speeds to increase compaction in surface layers, prevent snowdrift, and increase viscosity in basal layers.
George Lu and Jonathan Kingslake
The Cryosphere, 18, 5301–5321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water below ice sheets affects ice-sheet motion, while the evolution of ice sheets likewise affects the water below. We create a model that allows for water and ice to affect each other and use it to see how this coupling or lack thereof may impact ice-sheet retreat. We find that coupling an evolving water system with the ice sheet results in more retreat than if we assume unchanging conditions under the ice, which indicates a need to better represent the effects of water in ice-sheet models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
Alexander H. Jarosch, Paul Hofer, and Christoph Spötl
The Cryosphere, 18, 4811–4816, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanical damage to stalagmites is commonly observed in mid-latitude caves. In this study we investigate ice flow along the cave bed as a possible mechanism for stalagmite damage. Utilizing models which simulate forces created by ice flow, we study the structural integrity of different stalagmite geometries. Our results suggest that structural failure of stalagmites caused by ice flow is possible, albeit unlikely.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Giulia Mazzotti, Jari-Pekka Nousu, Vincent Vionnet, Tobias Jonas, Rafife Nheili, and Matthieu Lafaysse
The Cryosphere, 18, 4607–4632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As many boreal and alpine forests have seasonal snow, models are needed to predict forest snow under future environmental conditions. We have created a new forest snow model by combining existing, very detailed model components for the canopy and the snowpack. We applied it to forests in Switzerland and Finland and showed how complex forest cover leads to a snowpack layering that is very variable in space and time because different processes prevail at different locations in the forest.
Xu Zhou, Binbin Wang, Xiaogang Ma, Zhu La, and Kun Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4589–4605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simulation of the ice phenology of Nam Co by WRF is investigated. Compared with the default model, improving the key lake schemes, such as water surface roughness length for heat fluxes and the shortwave radiation transfer for lake ice, can better simulate the lake ice phenology. The still existing errors in the spatial patterns of lake ice phenology imply that challenges still exist in modelling key lake and non-lake physics such as grid-scale water circulation and snow-related processes.
Amir Sedaghatkish, Frédéric Doumenc, Pierre-Yves Jeannin, and Marc Luetscher
The Cryosphere, 18, 4531–4546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a model to simulate the natural convection of water within frozen rock crevices subject to daily warming in mountain permafrost regions. Traditional models relying on conduction and latent heat flux typically overlook free convection. The results reveal that free convection can significantly accelerate the melting rate by an order of magnitude compared to conduction-based models. Our results are important for assessing the impact of climate change on mountain infrastructure.
Joseph Fogarty, Elie Bou-Zeid, Mitchell Bushuk, and Linette Boisvert
The Cryosphere, 18, 4335–4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We hypothesize that using a broad set of surface characterization metrics for polar sea ice surfaces will lead to more accurate representations in general circulation models. However, the first step is to identify the minimum set of metrics required. We show via numerical simulations that sea ice surface patterns can play a crucial role in determining boundary layer structures. We then statistically analyze a set of high-resolution sea ice surface images to obtain this minimal set of parameters.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Tim Hageman, Jessica Mejía, Ravindra Duddu, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 3991–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.
Clémence Herny, Pascal Hagenmuller, Guillaume Chambon, Isabel Peinke, and Jacques Roulle
The Cryosphere, 18, 3787–3805, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the evaluation of a numerical discrete element method (DEM) by simulating cone penetration tests in different snow samples. The DEM model demonstrated a good ability to reproduce the measured mechanical behaviour of the snow, namely the force evolution on the cone and the grain displacement field. Systematic sensitivity tests showed that the mechanical response depends not only on the microstructure of the sample but also on the mechanical parameters of grain contacts.
Douglas Brinkerhoff, Brandon Tober, Michael Daniel, Victor Devaux-Chupin, Michael Christoffersen, John W. Holt, Christopher F. Larsen, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G. Loso, Kristin M. F. Timm, Russell Mitchell, and Martin Truffer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2354, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
Louis Quéno, Rebecca Mott, Paul Morin, Bertrand Cluzet, Giulia Mazzotti, and Tobias Jonas
The Cryosphere, 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow redistribution by wind and avalanches strongly influences snow hydrology in mountains. This study presents a novel modelling approach to best represent these processes in an operational context. The evaluation of the simulations against airborne snow depth measurements showed remarkable improvement in the snow distribution in mountains of the eastern Swiss Alps, with a representation of snow accumulation and erosion areas, suggesting promising benefits for operational snow melt forecasts.
Meghana Ranganathan, Alexander A. Robel, Alexander Huth, and Ravindra Duddu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1850, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice sheet and internal fracturing of the ice. These are coupled – fractures can reduce the viscosity of ice and enable more rapid flow, and rapid flow can cause fracturing of ice. We present a simplified way of representing damage that is applicable to long-timescale flow estimates. Using this model, we find that including fracturing into an ice sheet simulation can increase the loss of ice by 13–29 %.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Baron, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, César Deschamps-Berger, Vincent Vionnet, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 18, 3081–3116, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations with snow transport against snow depths from Pléiades stereo imagery and snow melt-out dates from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellites. Additionally, we disentangle error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation heterogeneity, and unresolved subgrid variability. Snow transport enhances the snow simulations at high elevations, while precipitation biases are the main error source in other areas.
Christopher Riedel and Jeffrey Anderson
The Cryosphere, 18, 2875–2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate sea ice conditions are crucial for quality sea ice projections, which have been connected to rapid warming over the Arctic. Knowing which observations to assimilate into models will help produce more accurate sea ice conditions. We found that not assimilating sea ice concentration led to more accurate sea ice states. The methods typically used to assimilate observations in our models apply assumptions to variables that are not well suited for sea ice because they are bounded variables.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1778, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 1 % of initial glacier cover.
Julia Selivanova, Doroteaciro Iovino, and Francesco Cocetta
The Cryosphere, 18, 2739–2763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models show differences in sea ice representation in comparison to observations. Increasing the model resolution is a recognized way to improve model realism and obtain more reliable future projections. We find no strong impact of resolution on sea ice representation; it rather depends on the analysed variable and the model used. By 2050, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) becomes a dominant feature of the Arctic ice cover, suggesting a shift to a new regime similar to that in Antarctica.
Ziad Rashed, Alexander Robel, and Helene Seroussi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1435, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Enrico Zorzetto, Paul Ginoux, Sergey Malyshev, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1258, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Light-absorbing particles (LAPs) deposition on snow leads to a darkening of the snow surface and can thus accelerate snow melt. Understanding to what extent different types of LAPs contribute to snow melt is important both to predict changes in water availability and for improving global climate model predictions. Here we extend a recently developed snow model to account for the deposition of LAPs in the snowpack and evaluate the effect of snow darkening on accelerating snow melt.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Guillaume Boutin, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 18, 1791–1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
Mathieu Plante, Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, Adrienne Tivy, Joey Angnatok, François Roy, Gregory Smith, Frédéric Dupont, and Adrian K. Turner
The Cryosphere, 18, 1685–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use a sea ice model to reproduce ice growth observations from two buoys deployed on coastal sea ice and analyze the improvements brought by new physics that represent the presence of saline liquid water in the ice interior. We find that the new physics with default parameters degrade the model performance, with overly rapid ice growth and overly early snow flooding on top of the ice. The performance is largely improved by simple modifications to the ice growth and snow-flooding algorithms.
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the retreat history of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) across the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka. These results improve our understanding of the response of the PIS to deglacial warming and the patterns of deglacial ice margin retreat where gaps in the geologic record still exist, and they indicate that changes in large-scale precipitation during the last deglaciation played an important role in modulating the response of ice margin change across the PIS to deglacial warming.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1215–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model to study the influences of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation. Our results show (1) smaller ice-floe size with wave breaking increases ice melt, (2) the responses in the atmosphere and ocean to smaller floe size partially reduce the effect of the enhanced ice melt, (3) the limited oceanic energy is a strong constraint for ice melt enhancement, and (4) ocean waves can indirectly affect sea ice through the atmosphere and the ocean.
Yurii Batrak, Bin Cheng, and Viivi Kallio-Myers
The Cryosphere, 18, 1157–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric reanalyses provide consistent series of atmospheric and surface parameters in a convenient gridded form. In this paper, we study the quality of sea ice in a recently released regional reanalysis and assess its added value compared to a global reanalysis. We show that the regional reanalysis, having a more complex sea ice model, gives an improved representation of sea ice, although there are limitations indicating potential benefits in using more advanced approaches in the future.
Michael A. Rawlins and Ambarish V. Karmalkar
The Cryosphere, 18, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Oreste Marquis, Bruno Tremblay, Jean-François Lemieux, and Mohammed Islam
The Cryosphere, 18, 1013–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model based on the numerical framework called smoothed particle hydrodynamics. The model conforms to the theory within an error of 1 % in an idealized ridging experiment, and it is able to simulate stable ice arches. However, the method creates a dispersive plastic wave speed. The framework is efficient to simulate fractures and can take full advantage of parallelization, making it a good candidate to investigate sea-ice material properties.
Soňa Tomaškovičová and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a fully coupled modeling framework for simulating the ground thermal regime using only surface measurements to calibrate the thermal model. The heat conduction model is forced by surface ground temperature measurements and calibrated using the field measurements of time lapse apparent electrical resistivity. The resistivity-calibrated thermal model achieves a performance comparable to the traditional calibration of borehole temperature measurements.
Yan Huang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Yiliang Ma, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 18, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important factor affecting the basal thermal environment of an ice sheet and crucial for its dynamics. But it is poorly defined for the Antarctic ice sheet. We simulate the basal temperature and basal melting rate with eight different GHF datasets. We use specularity content as a two-sided constraint to discriminate between local wet or dry basal conditions. Two medium-magnitude GHF distribution maps rank well, showing that most of the inland bed area is frozen.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Michael Wolovick, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, and Martin Rückamp
The Cryosphere, 17, 5027–5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The friction underneath ice sheets can be inferred from observed velocity at the top, but this inference requires smoothing. The selection of smoothing has been highly variable in the literature. Here we show how to rigorously select the best smoothing, and we show that the inferred friction converges towards the best knowable field as model resolution improves. We use this to learn about the best description of basal friction and to formulate recommended best practices for other modelers.
Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck
The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.
Juditha Aga, Julia Boike, Moritz Langer, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen, and Sebastian Westermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4179–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new model scheme for simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments, depending on ground properties and climatic forcing. It is embedded in the CryoGrid community model, a land surface model for the terrestrial cryosphere. We describe the model physics and functionalities, followed by a model validation and a sensitivity study of controlling factors.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Cited articles
Asay-Davis, X. S., Cornford, S. L., Durand, G., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R. M., Gudmundsson, G. H., Hattermann, T., Holland, D. M., Holland, D., Holland, P. R., Martin, D. F., Mathiot, P., Pattyn, F., and Seroussi, H.: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1), Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016.
Budd, W., Keage, P. L., and Blundy, N. A.: Empirical studies of ice sliding, J. Glaciol., 23, 157–170, 1979.
Budd, W., Jenssen, D., and Smith, I.: A 3-dimensional time-dependent model of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet, Ann. Glaciol., 5, 29–36, 1984.
Cornford, S. L., Martin, D. F., Graves, D. T., Ranken, D. F., Le Brocq, A. M., Gladstone, R. M., Payne, A. J., Ng, E., and Lipscomb, W. H.: Adaptive mesh, finite volume modeling of marine ice sheets, J. Comput. Phys., 232, 529–549, 2013.
Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., de Fleurian, B., Zwinger, T., and Le Meur, E.: Marine ice sheet dynamics: Hysteresis and neutral equilibrium, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, F03009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JF001170, 2009.
Favier, L., Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., and Zwinger, T.: A three-dimensional full Stokes model of the grounding line dynamics: effect of a pinning point beneath the ice shelf, The Cryosphere, 6, 101–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-101-2012, 2012.
Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A. J., and Le Brocq, A. M.: Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nature Climate Change, 4, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2094, 2014.
Feldmann, J., Albrecht, T., Khroulev, C., Pattyn, F., and Levermann, A.: Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared to a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison, J. Glaciol., 60, 353–360, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J093, 2014.
Fowler, A. C.: Weertman, Lliboutry and the development of sliding theory, J. Glaciol., 56, 965–972, 2010.
Gagliardini, O., Cohen, D., Raback, P., and Zwinger, T.: Finite-element modeling of subglacial cavities and related friction law, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F02027, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000576, 2007.
Gagliardini, O., Durand, G., Zwinger, T., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., and Le Meur, E.: Coupling of ice-shelf melting and buttressing is a key process in ice-sheets dynamics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, F04014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043334, 2010.
Gagliardini, O., Zwinger, T., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Durand, G., Favier, L., de Fleurian, B., Greve, R., Malinen, M., Martín, C., Råback, P., Ruokolainen, J., Sacchettini, M., Schäfer, M., Seddik, H., and Thies, J.: Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1299–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1299-2013, 2013.
Gagliardini, O., Brondex, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Peyaud, V., and Durand, G.: Brief communication: Impact of mesh resolution for MISMIP and MISMIP3d experiments using Elmer/Ice, The Cryosphere, 10, 307–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-307-2016, 2016.
Galton-Fenzi, B.: Modelling Ice-Shelf/Ocean Interaction, PhD thesis, University of Tasmania, 2009.
Gladstone, R. M., Lee, V., Vieli, A., and Payne, A.: Grounding Line Migration in an Adaptive Mesh Ice Sheet Model, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 115, F04014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001615, 2010a.
Gladstone, R. M., Payne, A. J., and Cornford, S. L.: Parameterising the grounding line in flow-line ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 4, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-605-2010, 2010b.
Gladstone, R. M., Payne, A. J., and Cornford, S. L.: Resolution requirements for grounding-line modelling: sensitivity to basal drag and ice-shelf buttressing, Ann. Glaciol., 53, 97–105, https://doi.org/10.3189/2012AoG60A148, 2012.
Glen, J. W.: Experiments on the deformation of ice, J. Glaciol., 2, 111–114, 1952.
Gong, Y., Cornford, S. L., and Payne, A. J.: Modelling the response of the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf system, East Antarctica, to uncertain climate forcing over the 21st and 22nd centuries, The Cryosphere, 8, 1057–1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014, 2014.
Hewitt, I. J., Schoof, C., and Werder, M. A.: Flotation and free surface flow in a model for subglacial drainage. Part 2. Channel flow, J. Fluid Mech., 702, 157–187, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2012.166, 2012.
Jenkins, A.: Convection-Driven Melting near the Grounding Lines of Ice Shelves and Tidewater Glaciers, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 41, 2279–2294, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-11-03.1, 2011.
Joughin, I., Smith, B., and Holland, D.: Sensitivity of 21st century sea level to ocean-induced thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044819, 2010.
Leguy, G. R., Asay-Davis, X. S., and Lipscomb, W. H.: Parameterization of basal friction near grounding lines in a one-dimensional ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 8, 1239–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1239-2014, 2014.
Mclnnes, B. and Budd, W.: A Cross-Sectional Model for Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 5, 95–99, 1984.
Parizek, B. R. and Walker, R. T.: Implications of initial conditions and ice-ocean coupling for grounding-line evolution, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 300, 351–358, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.10.016, 2010.
Paterson, W.: The physics of glaciers, Pergamon, Oxford, 3rd Edn., 1994.
Pattyn, F., Huyghe, A., De Brabander, S., and De Smedt, B.: Role of transition zones in marine ice sheet dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 111, F02004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JF000394, 2006.
Pattyn, F., Schoof, C., Perichon, L., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Bueler, E., de Fleurian, B., Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Gladstone, R., Goldberg, D., Gudmundsson, G. H., Huybrechts, P., Lee, V., Nick, F. M., Payne, A. J., Pollard, D., Rybak, O., Saito, F., and Vieli, A.: Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP, The Cryosphere, 6, 573–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-573-2012, 2012.
Pollard, D. and DeConto, R. M.: Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years, Nature, 458, 329–332, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07809, 2009.
Rignot, E. and Jacobs, S. S.: Rapid Bottom Melting Widespread near Antarctic Ice Sheet Grounding Lines, Science, 296, 2020–2023, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1070942, 2002.
Schoof, C.: The effect of cavitation on glacier sliding, P. Roy. Soc. A-Math. Phys., 461, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2004.1350, 2005.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F03S28, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Schoof, C., Hewitt, I. J., and Werder, M. A.: Flotation and free surface flow in a model for subglacial drainage. Part 1. Distributed drainage, J. Fluid Mech., 702, 126–156, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2012.165, 2012.
Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Larour, E., Rignot, E., and Khazendar, A.: Hydrostatic grounding line parameterization in ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 8, 2075–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2075-2014, 2014.
Tsai, V. C., Stewart, A. L., and Thompson, A. F.: Marine ice-sheet profiles and stability under Coulomb basal conditions, J. Glaciol., 61, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG14J221, 2015.
Vieli, A. and Payne, A.: Assessing the ability of numerical ice sheet models to simulate grounding line migration, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 110, F01003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JF000202, 2005.
Weertman, J.: On the sliding of glaciers, J. Glaciol., 3, 33–38, 1957.
Werder, M. A., Hewitt, I. J., Schoof, C. G., and Flowers, G. E.: Modeling channelized and distributed subglacial drainage in two dimensions, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 118, 2140–2158, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20146, 2013.
Short summary
Computer models are used to simulate the behaviour of glaciers and ice sheets. It has been found that such models are required to be run at very high resolution (which means high computational expense) in order to accurately represent the evolution of marine ice sheets (ice sheets resting on bedrock below sea level), in certain situations which depend on sub-glacial physical processes.
Computer models are used to simulate the behaviour of glaciers and ice sheets. It has been found...
