Articles | Volume 18, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 19 Sep 2024
| 19 Sep 2024
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geoscience Institute CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Javier Blasco
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Alexander Robinson
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Marisa Montoya
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geoscience Institute CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geoscience Institute CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
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Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
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We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
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Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 20, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, 2024
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In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. For this, we use data from the PlioMIP2 ensemble. Additionally, we investigate various sources of uncertainty, like ice dynamics and bedrock configuration. Our research significantly enhances our comprehension of Antarctica's response to a warming climate, shedding light on potential future tipping points that may be surpassed.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Jerry Mitrovica
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024
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Ice sheets present a thickness of a few kilometres, leading to a vertical deformation of the crust of up to a kilometre. This process depends on properties of the solid Earth, which can be regionally very different. We propose a model that accounts for this often-ignored heterogeneity and run 100 000 simulation years in minutes. Thus, the evolution of ice sheets is modeled with better accuracy, which is critical for a good mitigation of climate change and, in particular, sea-level rise.
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1842, 2024
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The climate of the last 3 Myr varies between cold and warm periods. Numerous independent mechanisms have been proposed to explain this, however no effort has been made to study their competing effects. Here we present a simple but physically motivated model that includes these mechanisms in a modular way. We find that the main trigger is the displacement of the lithosphere due to the ice thickness evolution, but reproducing the climate records additionally requires the natural darkening of ice.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690, 2023
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We introduce Nix, an ice-sheet model designed for understanding how large masses of ice behave. Nix as a computer program that simulates the movement and temperature changes in ice sheets. Nix helps us study how ice sheets respond to changes in the atmosphere and ocean. We found that how fast ice melts under the shelves and how heat is exchanged, play a role in determining the future of ice sheets. Nix is a useful tool for learning more about how climate change affects polar ice sheets.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 17, 2139–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, 2023
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We have reconstructed the Laurentide Ice Sheet, located in North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago). The absence of direct measurements raises a number of uncertainties. Here we study the impact of different physical laws that describe the friction as the ice slides over its base. We found that the Laurentide Ice Sheet is closest to prior reconstructions when the basal friction takes into account whether the base is frozen or thawed during its motion.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
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In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
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Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
The Cryosphere, 15, 215–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-215-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-215-2021, 2021
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During the Last Glacial Maximum the Antarctic Ice Sheet was larger and more extended than at present. However, neither its exact position nor the total ice volume are well constrained. Here we investigate how the different climatic boundary conditions, as well as basal friction configurations, affect the size and extent of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and discuss its potential implications.
Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Montoya, Heiko Goelzer, Ralf Greve, and Catherine Ritz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, 2020
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Here we describe Yelmo v1.0, an intuitive and state-of-the-art hybrid ice sheet model. The model design and physics are described, and benchmark simulations are provided to validate its performance. Yelmo is a versatile ice sheet model that can be applied to a wide variety of problems.
Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-96, 2019
Publication in CP not foreseen
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Modelling the past abrupt climate changes often resorts to the use of freshwater flux (FWF) in the North Atlantic as an effective method to cause reorganizations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This procedure has allowed to reproduce the timing of the events. However, the required FWF is inconsistent with reconstructions. Conversely, using a forcing derived from the sea-level record results in a poor fit with the data, highlighting the need of exploring other mechanisms.
Ilaria Tabone, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
The Cryosphere, 13, 1911–1923, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1911-2019, 2019
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Recent reconstructions show that the North East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) retreated away from its present-day position by 20–40 km during MIS-3. Atmospheric and external forcings were proposed as potential causes of this retreat, but the role of the ocean was not considered. Here, using a 3-D ice-sheet model, we suggest that oceanic warming is sufficient to induce a retreat of the NEGIS margin of many tens of kilometres during MIS-3, helping to explain this conundrum.
Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Rubén Banderas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 15, 957–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-957-2019, 2019
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The last glacial period was marked by the existence of of abrupt climatic changes; it is generally accepted that the presence of ice sheets played an important role in their occurrence. While an important effort has been made to investigate the dynamics and evolution of the Laurentide ice sheet during this period, the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS) has not received much attention. Here we investigate the response of the EIS to millennial-scale climate variability using a hybrid 3-D ice-sheet model.
Ilaria Tabone, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 15, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-593-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-593-2019, 2019
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By using a 3-D hybrid ice-sheet–shelf model, we investigate the impact of millennial-scale oceanic variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) evolution during the last glacial period (LGP). We show that the GrIS may have strongly reacted to oceanic temperature fluctuations associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, contributing to sea-level variations of more than 1 m. Our results open the chance for a non-negligible role of the GrIS in millennial-scale oceanic reorganisations during the LGP.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 15, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-121-2019, 2019
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The LGP is a period punctuated by the presence of several abrupt climate events and sea-level variations of up to 20 m at millennial timescales. The origin of those fluctuations is attributed to NH paleo ice sheets, but a contribution from the AIS cannot be excluded. Here, for the first time, we investigate the response of the AIS to millennial climate variability using an ice sheet–shelf model. We shows that the AIS produces substantial sea-level rises and grounding line migrations.
Rubén Banderas, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2299–2314, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2299-2018, 2018
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Here we present a new approach to force ice-sheet models offline, which accounts for a more realistic treatment of millennial-scale climate variability as compared to the existing methods. Our results reveal that an incorrect representation of the characteristic pattern of millennial-scale climate variability within the climate forcing not only affects NH ice-volume variations at millennial timescales but has consequences for glacial–interglacial ice-volume changes too.
Ilaria Tabone, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 14, 455–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-455-2018, 2018
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The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to palaeo-oceanic changes on a glacial–interglacial timescale is studied from a modelling perspective. A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet–shelf model which includes a parameterization of the basal melting rate at the GrIS marine margins is used. The results show that the oceanic forcing plays a key role in the GrIS evolution, not only by controlling the ice retreat during the deglaciation but also by driving the ice expansion in glacial periods.
Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Rubén Banderas, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-143, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-143, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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The last glacial period was marked by the existence of of abrupt climatic changes. It is generally accepted that the presence of ice sheets played an
important role in their occurrence. While an important effort has been made to investigate the dynamics and evolution of the Laurentide Ice Sheet during this period, the Eurasian Ice Sheet (EIS) has not received much attention. Here we investigate the response of the EIS to millennial-scale climate variability. We use a hybrid 3D ice-sheet model.
Mario Krapp, Alexander Robinson, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 11, 1519–1535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1519-2017, 2017
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We present the snowpack model SEMIC. It calculates snow height, surface temperature, surface albedo, and the surface mass balance of snow- and ice-covered surfaces while using meteorological data as input. In this paper we describe how SEMIC works and how well it compares with snowpack data of a more sophisticated regional climate model applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Because of its simplicity and efficiency, SEMIC can be used as a coupling interface between atmospheric and ice sheet models.
A. Robinson and M. Perrette
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1877–1883, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1877-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1877-2015, 2015
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Here we present a concise interface to the NetCDF library designed to simplify reading and writing tasks of up to 6-D arrays in Fortran programs.
R. Calov, A. Robinson, M. Perrette, and A. Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015
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Ice discharge into the ocean from outlet glaciers is an important
component of mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Here, we present a
simple parameterization of ice discharge for coarse resolution ice
sheet models, suitable for large ensembles or long-term palaeo
simulations. This parameterization reproduces in a good approximation
the present-day ice discharge compared with estimates, and the
simulation of the present-day ice sheet elevation is considerably
improved.
A. Robinson and H. Goelzer
The Cryosphere, 8, 1419–1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1419-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Numerical Modelling
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Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not
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Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
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Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Tim Hageman, Jessica Mejía, Ravindra Duddu, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 3991–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, 2024
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Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
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The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1005, 2024
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Our research delves into the future ice loss in Antarctica’s Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its impact on sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. According to our best model results, under high-emission scenarios, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300, potentially raising global sea levels by up to 0.34 m by 2500.
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, 2024
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We simulate the retreat history of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) across the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka. These results improve our understanding of the response of the PIS to deglacial warming and the patterns of deglacial ice margin retreat where gaps in the geologic record still exist, and they indicate that changes in large-scale precipitation during the last deglaciation played an important role in modulating the response of ice margin change across the PIS to deglacial warming.
Yan Huang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Yiliang Ma, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 18, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, 2024
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Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important factor affecting the basal thermal environment of an ice sheet and crucial for its dynamics. But it is poorly defined for the Antarctic ice sheet. We simulate the basal temperature and basal melting rate with eight different GHF datasets. We use specularity content as a two-sided constraint to discriminate between local wet or dry basal conditions. Two medium-magnitude GHF distribution maps rank well, showing that most of the inland bed area is frozen.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
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The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Michael Wolovick, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, and Martin Rückamp
The Cryosphere, 17, 5027–5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, 2023
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The friction underneath ice sheets can be inferred from observed velocity at the top, but this inference requires smoothing. The selection of smoothing has been highly variable in the literature. Here we show how to rigorously select the best smoothing, and we show that the inferred friction converges towards the best knowable field as model resolution improves. We use this to learn about the best description of basal friction and to formulate recommended best practices for other modelers.
Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck
The Cryosphere, 17, 4751–4777, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023, 2023
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We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
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We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
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The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
Aleksandr Montelli and Jonathan Kingslake
The Cryosphere, 17, 195–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-195-2023, 2023
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Thermal modelling and Bayesian inversion techniques are used to evaluate the uncertainties inherent in inferences of ice-sheet evolution from borehole temperature measurements. We show that the same temperature profiles may result from a range of parameters, of which geothermal heat flux through underlying bedrock plays a key role. Careful model parameterisation and evaluation of heat flux are essential for inferring past ice-sheet evolution from englacial borehole thermometry.
Jeremy Rohmer, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, Heiko Goelzer, and Gael Durand
The Cryosphere, 16, 4637–4657, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022, 2022
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To improve the interpretability of process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components, we apply the machine-learning-based
SHapley Additive exPlanationsapproach to a subset of a multi-model ensemble study for the Greenland ice sheet. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions (related to numerical implementation, initial conditions, or parametrisation of ice-sheet processes) directly in terms of sea-level change contribution.
Elise Kazmierczak, Sainan Sun, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 16, 4537–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022, 2022
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The water at the interface between ice sheets and underlying bedrock leads to lubrication between the ice and the bed. Due to a lack of direct observations, subglacial conditions beneath the Antarctic ice sheet are poorly understood. Here, we compare different approaches in which the subglacial water could influence sliding on the underlying bedrock and suggest that it modulates the Antarctic ice sheet response and increases uncertainties, especially in the context of global warming.
Jowan M. Barnes and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 16, 4291–4304, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022, 2022
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Models must represent how glaciers slide along the bed, but there are many ways to do so. In this paper, several sliding laws are tested and found to affect different regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in different ways and at different speeds. However, the variability in ice volume loss due to sliding-law choices is low compared to other factors, so limited empirical knowledge of sliding does not prevent us from making predictions of how an ice sheet will evolve.
Brooke Medley, Thomas A. Neumann, H. Jay Zwally, Benjamin E. Smith, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 16, 3971–4011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3971-2022, 2022
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Satellite altimeters measure the height or volume change over Earth's ice sheets, but in order to understand how that change translates into ice mass, we must account for various processes at the surface. Specifically, snowfall events generate large, transient increases in surface height, yet snow fall has a relatively low density, which means much of that height change is composed of air. This air signal must be removed from the observed height changes before we can assess ice mass change.
Haoran Kang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 16, 3619–3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3619-2022, 2022
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Basal thermal conditions are important to ice dynamics and sensitive to geothermal heat flux (GHF). We estimate basal thermal conditions of the Lambert–Amery Glacier system with six GHF maps. Recent GHFs inverted from aerial geomagnetic observations produce a larger warm-based area and match the observed subglacial lakes better than the other GHFs. The modelled basal melt rate is 10 to hundreds of millimetres per year in fast-flowing glaciers feeding the Amery Ice Shelf and smaller inland.
Basile de Fleurian, Richard Davy, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 16, 2265–2283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2265-2022, 2022
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As temperature increases, more snow and ice melt at the surface of ice sheets. Here we use an ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology model with simplified geometry and climate forcing to study the impact of variations in meltwater on ice dynamics. We focus on the variations in length and intensity of the melt season. Our results show that a longer melt season leads to faster glaciers, but a more intense melt season reduces glaciers' seasonal velocities, albeit leading to higher peak velocities.
Maria-Gema Llorens, Albert Griera, Paul D. Bons, Ilka Weikusat, David J. Prior, Enrique Gomez-Rivas, Tamara de Riese, Ivone Jimenez-Munt, Daniel García-Castellanos, and Ricardo A. Lebensohn
The Cryosphere, 16, 2009–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2009-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2009-2022, 2022
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Polar ice is formed by ice crystals, which form fabrics that are utilised to interpret how ice sheets flow. It is unclear whether fabrics result from the current flow regime or if they are inherited. To understand the extent to which ice crystals can be reoriented when ice flow conditions change, we simulate and evaluate multi-stage ice flow scenarios according to natural cases. We find that second deformation regimes normally overprint inherited fabrics, with a range of transitional fabrics.
Tanja Schlemm, Johannes Feldmann, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1979–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, 2022
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Marine cliff instability, if it exists, could dominate Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise. It is likely to speed up with ice thickness and thus would accelerate in most parts of Antarctica. Here, we investigate a possible mechanism that might stop cliff instability through cloaking by ice mélange. It is only a first step, but it shows that embayment geometry is, in principle, able to stop marine cliff instability in most parts of West Antarctica.
Neige Calonne, Alexis Burr, Armelle Philip, Frédéric Flin, and Christian Geindreau
The Cryosphere, 16, 967–980, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-967-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-967-2022, 2022
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Modeling gas transport in ice sheets from surface to close-off is key to interpreting climate archives. Estimates of the diffusion coefficient and permeability of snow and firn are required but remain a large source of uncertainty. We present a new dataset of diffusion coefficients and permeability from 20 to 120 m depth at two Antarctic sites. We suggest predictive formulas to estimate both properties over the entire 100–850 kg m3 density range, i.e., anywhere within the ice sheet column.
Tom Mitcham, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 16, 883–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-883-2022, 2022
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We modelled the response of the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) and its tributary glaciers to the calving of the A68 iceberg and validated our results with observations. We found that the impact was limited, confirming that mostly passive ice was calved. Through further calving experiments we quantified the total buttressing provided by the LCIS and found that over 80 % of the buttressing capacity is generated in the first 5 km of the ice shelf downstream of the grounding line.
Blake A. Castleman, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Lambert Caron, Eric Larour, and Ala Khazendar
The Cryosphere, 16, 761–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-761-2022, 2022
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In the described study, we derive an uncertainty range for global mean sea level rise (SLR) contribution from Thwaites Glacier in a 200-year period under an extreme ocean warming scenario. We derive the spatial and vertical resolutions needed for bedrock data acquisition missions in order to limit global mean SLR contribution from Thwaites Glacier to ±2 cm in a 200-year period. We conduct sensitivity experiments in order to present the locations of critical regions in need of accurate mapping.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
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Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Thiago Dias dos Santos, Mathieu Morlighem, and Douglas Brinkerhoff
The Cryosphere, 16, 179–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-179-2022, 2022
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Projecting the future evolution of Greenland and Antarctica and their potential contribution to sea level rise often relies on computer simulations carried out by numerical ice sheet models. Here we present a new vertically integrated ice sheet model and assess its performance using different benchmarks. The new model shows results comparable to a three-dimensional model at relatively lower computational cost, suggesting that it is an excellent alternative for long-term simulations.
Timm Schultz, Ralf Müller, Dietmar Gross, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-143-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-143-2022, 2022
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Firn is the interstage product between snow and ice. Simulations describing the process of firn densification are used in the context of estimating mass changes of the ice sheets and past climate reconstructions. The first stage of firn densification takes place in the upper few meters of the firn column. We investigate how well a material law describing the process of grain boundary sliding works for the numerical simulation of firn densification in this stage.
Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Xylar S. Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 15, 3229–3253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021, 2021
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We present numerical features of the Community Ice Sheet Model in representing ocean termini glaciers. Using idealized test cases, we show that applying melt in a partly grounded cell is beneficial, in contrast to recent studies. We confirm that parameterizing partly grounded cells yields accurate ice sheet representation at a grid resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km), allowing ice sheet simulations at a continental scale. The choice of basal friction law also influences the ice flow.
Jowan M. Barnes, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Daniel Goldberg, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Mathieu Morlighem, and Jan De Rydt
The Cryosphere, 15, 1975–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021, 2021
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Some properties of ice flow models must be initialised using observed data before they can be used to produce reliable predictions of the future. Different models have different ways of doing this, and the process is generally seen as being specific to an individual model. We compare the methods used by three different models and show that they produce similar outputs. We also demonstrate that the outputs from one model can be used in other models without introducing large uncertainties.
Olalekan Babaniyi, Ruanui Nicholson, Umberto Villa, and Noémi Petra
The Cryosphere, 15, 1731–1750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1731-2021, 2021
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We consider the problem of inferring unknown parameter fields under additional uncertainty for an ice sheet model from synthetic surface ice flow velocity measurements. Our results indicate that accounting for model uncertainty stemming from the presence of nuisance parameters is crucial. Namely our findings suggest that using nominal values for these parameters, as is often done in practice, without taking into account the resulting modeling error can lead to overconfident and biased results.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
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Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
Gong Cheng, Nina Kirchner, and Per Lötstedt
The Cryosphere, 15, 715–742, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-715-2021, 2021
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We present an inverse modeling approach to improve the understanding of spatiotemporally variable processes at the inaccessible base of an ice sheet by determining the sensitivity of direct surface observations to perturbations of basal conditions. Time dependency is proved to be important in these types of problems. The effect of perturbations is analyzed based on analytical and numerical solutions.
Clemens Schannwell, Reinhard Drews, Todd A. Ehlers, Olaf Eisen, Christoph Mayer, Mika Malinen, Emma C. Smith, and Hannes Eisermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3917–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020, 2020
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To reduce uncertainties associated with sea level rise projections, an accurate representation of ice flow is paramount. Most ice sheet models rely on simplified versions of the underlying ice flow equations. Due to the high computational costs, ice sheet models based on the complete ice flow equations have been restricted to < 1000 years. Here, we present a new model setup that extends the applicability of such models by an order of magnitude, permitting simulations of 40 000 years.
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, Christopher Nemeth, C. Max Stevens, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice Noël, and Jan Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 14, 3017–3032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3017-2020, 2020
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Ice sheets are covered by a firn layer, which is the transition stage between fresh snow and ice. Accurate modelling of firn density properties is important in many glaciological aspects. Current models show disagreements, are mostly calibrated to match specific observations of firn density and lack thorough uncertainty analysis. We use a novel calibration method for firn models based on a Bayesian statistical framework, which results in improved model accuracy and in uncertainty evaluation.
Surendra Adhikari, Erik R. Ivins, Eric Larour, Lambert Caron, and Helene Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 14, 2819–2833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2819-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2819-2020, 2020
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The mathematical formalism presented in this paper aims at simplifying computational strategies for tracking ice–ocean mass exchange in the Earth system. To this end, we define a set of generic, and quite simple, descriptions of evolving land, ocean and ice interfaces and present a unified method to compute the sea-level contribution of evolving ice sheets. The formalism can be applied to arbitrary geometries and at all timescales.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
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We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Isabel J. Nias, Antony J. Payne, Nicholas R. Golledge, and Rory J. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 14, 1245–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, 2020
Gong Cheng and Per Lötstedt
The Cryosphere, 14, 673–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-673-2020, 2020
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We present a time-dependent inverse method for ice sheet modeling. By investigating the sensitivity of the observations of the velocity and the height at the surface to the basal conditions of the ice, we show that if the basal parameters are time dependent, then time cannot be ignored in the inversion. By looking at the numerical features, we conclude that adding the height information of an ice sheet in the velocity inversion procedure could improve the robustness of the inference.
Xiaoran Guo, Liyun Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Sainan Sun, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 13, 3139–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, 2019
Vincent Verjans, Amber A. Leeson, C. Max Stevens, Michael MacFerrin, Brice Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1819–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1819-2019, 2019
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Firn models rely on empirical approaches for representing the percolation and refreezing of meltwater through the firn column. We develop liquid water schemes of different levels of complexity for firn models and compare their performances with respect to observations of density profiles from Greenland. Our results demonstrate that physically advanced water schemes do not lead to better agreement with density observations. Uncertainties in other processes contribute more to model discrepancy.
Leonardus van Kampenhout, Alan M. Rhoades, Adam R. Herrington, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, William J. Sacks, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019
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A new tool is evaluated in which the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are resolved at 55 and 28 km resolution, while the rest of the globe is modelled at ~110 km. The local refinement of resolution leads to improved accumulation (SMB > 0) compared to observations; however ablation (SMB < 0) is deteriorated in some regions. This is attributed to changes in cloud cover and a reduced effectiveness of a model-specific vertical downscaling technique.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Wood, Hélène Seroussi, Youngmin Choi, and Eric Rignot
The Cryosphere, 13, 723–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-723-2019, 2019
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Many glaciers along the coast of Greenland have been retreating. It has been suggested that this retreat is triggered by the presence of warm water in the fjords, and surface melt at the top of the ice sheet is exacerbating this problem. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of northwestern Greenland to further warming using a numerical model. We find that in current conditions, this sector alone will contribute more than 1 cm to sea rise level by 2100, and up to 3 cm in the most extreme scenario.
Sébastien Le clec'h, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, and Catherine Ritz
The Cryosphere, 13, 373–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-373-2019, 2019
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Quantifying the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level rise in response to atmospheric changes is important but remains challenging. For the first time a full representation of the feedbacks between a GrIS model and a regional atmospheric model was implemented. The authors highlight the fundamental need for representing the GrIS topography change feedbacks with respect to the atmospheric component face to the strong impact on the projected sea-level rise.
Julien Brondex, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 13, 177–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-177-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-177-2019, 2019
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Here, we apply a synthetic perturbation to the most active drainage basin of Antarctica and show that centennial mass loss projections obtained through ice flow models depend strongly on the implemented friction law, i.e. the mathematical relationship between basal drag and sliding velocities. In particular, the commonly used Weertman law considerably underestimates the sea-level contribution of this basin in comparison to two water pressure-dependent laws which rely on stronger physical bases.
Hongju Yu, Eric Rignot, Helene Seroussi, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 3861–3876, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3861-2018, 2018
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Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, has experienced rapid grounding line retreat and mass loss in the past decades. In this study, we simulate the evolution of Thwaites Glacier over the next century using different model configurations. Overall, we estimate a 5 mm contribution to global sea level rise from Thwaites Glacier in the next 30 years. However, a 300 % uncertainty is found over the next 100 years, ranging from 14 to 42 mm, depending on the model setup.
Youngmin Choi, Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Wood, and Johannes H. Bondzio
The Cryosphere, 12, 3735–3746, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3735-2018, 2018
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Calving is an important mechanism that controls the dynamics of Greenland outlet glaciers. We test and compare four calving laws and assess which calving law has better predictive abilities. Overall, the calving law based on von Mises stress is more satisfactory than other laws, but new parameterizations should be derived to better capture the detailed processes involved in calving.
Rupert M. Gladstone, Yuwei Xia, and John Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 3605–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, 2018
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Computer models for the simulation of marine ice sheets (ice sheets resting on bedrock below sea level) historically show poor numerical convergence for grounding line (the boundary between grounded and floating parts of the ice sheet) movement. We have further characterised the nature of the numerical problems leading to poor convergence and highlighted implications for the design of computer experiments that test grounding line movement.
Hélène Seroussi and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 3085–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3085-2018, 2018
Michael J. Wolovick and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 2955–2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2955-2018, 2018
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In this paper, we explore the possibility of using locally targeted geoengineering to slow the rate of an ice sheet collapse. We find that an intervention as big as existing large civil engineering projects could have a 30 % probability of stopping an ice sheet collapse, while larger interventions have better odds of success. With more research to improve upon the simple designs we considered, it may be possible to perfect a design that was both achievable and had good odds of success.
Chen Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Roland C. Warner, Matt A. King, Thomas Zwinger, and Mathieu Morlighem
The Cryosphere, 12, 2637–2652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2637-2018, 2018
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A combination of computer modelling and observational data were used to infer the resistance to ice flow at the bed of the Fleming Glacier on the Antarctic Peninsula. The model was also used to simulate the distribution of temperature within the ice, which governs the rate at which the ice can deform. This is especially important for glaciers like the Fleming Glacier, which has both regions of rapid deformation and regions of rapid sliding at the bed.
Cited articles
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Berdahl, M., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W. H., Urban, N. M., and Hoffman, M. J.: Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Blasco, J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., and Montoya, M.: Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions, The Cryosphere, 15, 215–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-215-2021, 2021. a
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Burgard, C., Jourdain, N. C., Reese, R., Jenkins, A., and Mathiot, P.: An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022. a, b
Chambers, C., Greve, R., Obase, T., Saito, F., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate, J. Glaciol., 68, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.124, 2021. a, b, c, d
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Short summary
We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several...
