Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4751-2023
Research article
 | 
10 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 10 Nov 2023

Quantifying the uncertainty in the Eurasian ice-sheet geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)

Oliver G. Pollard, Natasha L. M. Barlow, Lauren J. Gregoire, Natalya Gomez, Víctor Cartelle, Jeremy C. Ely, and Lachlan C. Astfalck

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Cited articles

Abe-Ouchi, A., Segawa, T., and Saito, F.: Climatic Conditions for modelling the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout the ice age cycle, Clim. Past, 3, 423–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-423-2007, 2007. a, b
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12374, 2013. a
Andrianakis, I., Vernon, I. R., McCreesh, N., McKinley, T. J., Oakley, J. E., Nsubuga, R. N., Goldstein, M., and White, R. G.: Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda, PLOS Comput. Biol., 11, e1003968, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003968, 2015. a, b
Astfalck, L., Williamson, D., Gandy, N., Gregoire, L., and Ivanovic, R.: Coexchangeable process modelling for uncertainty quantification in joint climate reconstruction, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2111.12283, 2021. a, b
Barlow, N. L. M., McClymont, E. L., Whitehouse, P. L., Stokes, C. R., Jamieson, S. S. R., Woodroffe, S. A., Bentley, M. J., Callard, S. L., Cofaigh, C. O., Evans, D. J. A., Horrocks, J. R., Lloyd, J. M., Long, A. J., Margold, M., Roberts, D. H., and Sanchez-Montes, M. L.: Lack of evidence for a substantial sea-level fluctuation within the Last Interglacial, Nat. Geosci., 11, 627–634, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0195-4, 2018. a
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We use advanced statistical techniques and a simple ice-sheet model to produce an ensemble of plausible 3D shapes of the ice sheet that once stretched across northern Europe during the previous glacial maximum (140,000 years ago). This new reconstruction, equivalent in volume to 48 ± 8 m of global mean sea-level rise, will improve the interpretation of high sea levels recorded from the Last Interglacial period (120 000 years ago) that provide a useful perspective on the future.