Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016
Research article
 | 
21 Oct 2016
Research article |  | 21 Oct 2016

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, Yongyun Hu, Radley M. Horton, Liqi Chen, and Xiao Cheng

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Cited articles

Bindoff, N. L., Stott, P. A., AchutaRao, K. M., Allen, M. R., Gillett, N., Gutzler, D., Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y., Jain, S., Mokhov, I. I., Overland, J., Perlwitz, J., Sebbari, R., and Zhang, X.: Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Doschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, 867–952, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.022, 2013.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Armour, K., Bitz, C. M., and deWeaver, E.: Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations, J. Climate, 24, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1, 2011a.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bitz, C. M., and Holland, M. M.: Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807, 2011b.
Boé, J. L., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341–343, 2009.
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Short summary
The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales.