Articles | Volume 10, issue 5
The Cryosphere, 10, 2429–2452, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016
The Cryosphere, 10, 2429–2452, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016

Research article 21 Oct 2016

Research article | 21 Oct 2016

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

Chao-Yuan Yang et al.

Data sets

Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data D. J. Cavalieri, C. L. Parkinson, P. Gloersen, and H. J. Zwally https://doi.org/10.5067/8GQ8LZQVL0VL

Sea Ice Index, updated daily F. Fetterer, K. Knowles, W. Meier, and M. Savoie https://doi.org/10.7265/N5736NV7

Understanding and predicting Antarctic sea ice variability at the decadal timescale – “PREDANTAR” H. Goosse, S. Close, S. Dubinkina, F. Massonnet, V. Zunz, S. Vannitsem, B. V. Schaeybroeck, A. Barth, and M. Canter http://www.elic.ucl.ac.be/users/zunz/site_PREDANTAR/ en-project_results.html

Arctic Report Card 2015 M. O. Jeffries, J. Richter-Menge, and J. E. Overland (Eds.) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/ reportcard

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model output WCRP http:// cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/

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Short summary
The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales.