Articles | Volume 18, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
Research article
 | 
25 Sep 2024
Research article |  | 25 Sep 2024

The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica

Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann

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Cited articles

Ađalgeirsdóttir, G., Aschwanden, A., Khroulev, C., Boberg, F., Mottram, R., Lucas-Picher, P., and Christensen, J.: Role of model initialization for projections of 21st-century Greenland ice sheet mass loss, J. Glaciol., 60, 782–794, https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J202, 2014. a
Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M. R.: Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 616–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0616-z, 2020. a
Aitken, A. R. A, Roberts, J. L., van Ommen, T. D., Young, D. A., Golledge, N. R., Greenbaum, J. S., Blankenship, D. D., and Siegert, M. J. : Repeated large-scale retreat and advance of Totten Glacier indicated by inland bed erosion, Nature, 533, 385–389, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17447, 2016. a
Albrecht, T., Winkelmann, R., and Levermann, A.: Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) – Part 1: Boundary conditions and climatic forcing, The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a, b
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Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
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