Articles | Volume 18, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Sep 2024
Research article |
| 25 Sep 2024
| 25 Sep 2024
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
Ann Kristin Klose
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Violaine Coulon
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
Ricarda Winkelmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 6012 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Evolutionary Earth Systems Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, 07745 Jena, Germany
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fracture-driven weakening amplifies projected ice loss from West Antarctica J. Blasco et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2601529123
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming R. Winkelmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0
- The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios H. Millman et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0565
- From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet V. Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
- Approximating 3D bedrock deformation in an Antarctic ice-sheet model for projections C. van Calcar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- Modelling Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity at atmospheric, bedrock and oceanic interfaces F. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2026.2684792
- Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects M. Siegert et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2025.1527393
- Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections F. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
- Antarctica in 2025: Drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss H. Fricker et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adt9619
- Growth and decay of the Iceland Ice Sheet through the last glacial cycle A. Goffin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-825-2026
- Sensitivity of melt energy of the Greenland ice sheet to changes in spatially variable ice-surface roughness derived from ICESat GLAS data U. Herzfeld et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2026.1774414
- Towards the human-induced “eemification” of the recent Holocene: a perspective from the Canary Islands J. Fernández-Palacios et al. https://doi.org/10.21425/fob.19.176249
- Multiproxy analyses of multiple shallow firn cores from coastal Adélie Land T. Tcheng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1599-2026
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fracture-driven weakening amplifies projected ice loss from West Antarctica J. Blasco et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2601529123
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming R. Winkelmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02554-0
- The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios H. Millman et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0565
- From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet V. Coulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
- Approximating 3D bedrock deformation in an Antarctic ice-sheet model for projections C. van Calcar et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-757-2026
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w
- Modelling Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity at atmospheric, bedrock and oceanic interfaces F. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2026.2684792
- Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects M. Siegert et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2025.1527393
- Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections F. Gao et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
- Antarctica in 2025: Drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss H. Fricker et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adt9619
- Growth and decay of the Iceland Ice Sheet through the last glacial cycle A. Goffin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-825-2026
- Sensitivity of melt energy of the Greenland ice sheet to changes in spatially variable ice-surface roughness derived from ICESat GLAS data U. Herzfeld et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2026.1774414
- Towards the human-induced “eemification” of the recent Holocene: a perspective from the Canary Islands J. Fernández-Palacios et al. https://doi.org/10.21425/fob.19.176249
- Multiproxy analyses of multiple shallow firn cores from coastal Adélie Land T. Tcheng et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1599-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 17 Jul 2026
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected...
