Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-711-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Brief communication
| 
25 Feb 2022
Brief communication |
| 25 Feb 2022
| 25 Feb 2022
Brief communication: Impact of common ice mask in surface mass balance estimates over the Antarctic ice sheet
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Geodesy and Earth Observation, DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Sebastian B. Simonsen
Geodesy and Earth Observation, DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Fredrik Boberg
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Christoph Kittel
Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Andrew Orr
British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK
Niels Souverijns
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
Environmental Modelling Unit, Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol, Belgium
J. Melchior van Wessem
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Ruth Mottram
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is a source of major uncertainty in ice-sheet mass balance estimates, but its evaluation remains limited. We introduce a novel method using continuous, bedrock-fixed GPS vertical displacements as a spatially integrated constraint on low-frequency SMB variability over hundreds of kilometres. Applied across Antarctica, it reveals systematic, region-dependent differences with modelled SMB-driven displacements, guiding SMB model refinement.
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Iceberg mélange is the jumble of icebergs in front of some glaciers that calve into the sea. Some studies suggest mélange might help to control the retreat of glaciers. We studied 3 glaciers in NW Greenland where we used GPS sensors and satellites to track ice movement. We found that glaciers push forward and calve all year, including when mélange and landfast sea ice are present, suggesting mélange is not important in supporting glaciers, but may influence the seasonal calving cycle.
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The Cryosphere, 20, 2947–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, 2026
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The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
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Regional Climate Models are known to improve the modelling of meteorological variables, like snow accumulation, in mountainous areas, relative to coarser global models. It was unclear whether they also improve the modelling over the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is mostly a nearly flat, high-elevation plateau. We find that Regional Climate Models do perform better than global models on most metrics tested, building trust in the regional models for future Antarctic projections.
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The UK Earth System Model is updated with an improved polar stratospheric cloud scheme. The performance of the scheme is evaluated against satellite data. While the model fails to form the full range of observed ice, the scheme improves its ability to represent different polar stratospheric cloud types and their variations. This brings the model closer to satellite observations and highlights the need for further development to capture the polar stratospheric clouds with high number densities.
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The Cryosphere, 20, 5099–5113, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5099-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5099-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is a source of major uncertainty in ice-sheet mass balance estimates, but its evaluation remains limited. We introduce a novel method using continuous, bedrock-fixed GPS vertical displacements as a spatially integrated constraint on low-frequency SMB variability over hundreds of kilometres. Applied across Antarctica, it reveals systematic, region-dependent differences with modelled SMB-driven displacements, guiding SMB model refinement.
Sofie Hedetoft, Olivia Bang Brinck, Ruth Mottram, Andrea M. U. Gierisch, Steffen Malskær Olsen, Martin Olesen, Nicolaj Hansen, Anders Anker Bjørk, Erik Loebel, Anne Solgaard, and Peter Thejll
The Cryosphere, 20, 5071–5098, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5071-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5071-2026, 2026
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Iceberg mélange is the jumble of icebergs in front of some glaciers that calve into the sea. Some studies suggest mélange might help to control the retreat of glaciers. We studied 3 glaciers in NW Greenland where we used GPS sensors and satellites to track ice movement. We found that glaciers push forward and calve all year, including when mélange and landfast sea ice are present, suggesting mélange is not important in supporting glaciers, but may influence the seasonal calving cycle.
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Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain
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Natalia H. Andersen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Karina Nielsen, Mai Winstrup, Baptiste Vandecrux, Hui Gao, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, and Louise Sandberg Sørensen
The Cryosphere, 20, 4327–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4327-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4327-2026, 2026
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We developed a new statistical approach to track monthly changes in the surface height of the Greenland Ice Sheet using radar data from the CryoSat-2 satellite (2011–2025). The method lets seasonal and long-term variations emerge directly from the data, creating a consistent record of elevation change that helps reveal how Greenland responds to ongoing climate change.
Hideo Aochi, Masumi Yamada, Tung-Cheng Ho, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Arno Christian Hammann, and Ruth Mottram
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3291–3304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3291-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3291-2026, 2026
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The 2017 Landslide-made tsunami in Greenland occurred in a context of global warming and heavily impacted local communities. We analyze this event using seismic data to reconstruct the whole chain of processes from the landslide to the tsunami. Our results validate a new approach to analyze crustal deformations caused by tsunami propagation in fjords, suggesting that alert systems based on seismic data are feasible, potentially allowing to reduce tsunami risks in polar regions.
Guillaume Timmermans, Brice Noël, Christoph Kittel, Thomas Dethinne, Nicolas Ghilain, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2341, 2026
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We assess how well a regional climate model reproduces changes in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface processes, an important driver of sea level rise. By comparing model results with observations, we show that high-resolution simulations closely match reality. Coarser simulations are less detailed near the edges but remain reliable overall. A resolution of 10 kilometers provides a good balance between accuracy and computing cost for long-term projections.
Luisa E. Avilés-Podgurski, Patrick Martineau, Hua Lu, Ayako Yamamoto, Amanda C. Maycock, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Anna E. Hogg, Grzegorz Muszynski, and Andrew Fleming
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1051–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026, 2026
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow filaments of intense poleward water vapour transport. On rare occasions, they reach the Arctic, driving strong warming and melt. In April 2020, two ARs intruded into the central Arctic within one week, raising near-surface temperatures by up to 30°C and leading to extreme precipitation. Their distinct paths and thermodynamic evolution reveal diverse AR impacts on Arctic sea ice and precipitation extremes.
Koen De Ridder, Mohammad Alobaidi, Hossein Bonakdari, Tomas Crols, Benjamin Lanssens, Jonathan Leon-Tavares, Alireza Nasseri, Ousmane Seidou, Mohammad Shaheen, Niels Souverijns, Inge Uljee, and Nele Veldeman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2901, 2026
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This review examined 273 studies on climate risks in African cities published between 2015 and 2025. We found that research is growing rapidly but remains focused on a limited number of large cities and mainly on flooding and heat. Many studies lack detailed local data and rarely combine future climate change with rapid urban growth. The results highlight the need for better city-scale information and planning tools to help African cities prepare for increasing climate risks.
Elke Schlager, Sebastian Scher, Ruth H. Mottram, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere, 20, 3313–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3313-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3313-2026, 2026
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Predicting Greenland's surface melt is critical for understanding sea-level rise, but traditional firn models are too slow for exploring many climate scenarios. We developed a neural network optimized through systematic input selection and network tuning to identify the necessary information to accurately emulate surface melt. This approach cuts computation costs by orders of magnitude and can be retrained for different climate forcings or extended to other surface mass balance properties.
Ian Simpson, Edward Hanna, Ryan S. Williams, Linh Luu, Andrew Orr, Julie Jones, Xavier Fettweis, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Ella Gilbert, Sid Gumber, Christoph Kittel, Sihan Li, Damien Maure, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Kristiina Verro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2270, 2026
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The warming trend in global temperatures has potential to result in accelerated break up of the Antarctic ice shelves, which would contribute to rising sea levels. Here we present a novel database of Antarctic extreme weather events over a selection of the Antarctic ice shelves. We examine air temperature, precipitation, wind and surface pressure. In addition, we examine trends in the frequency of extreme events and the links with weather patterns around Antarctica.
Fredrik Boberg, Xavier Fettweis, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 20, 2947–2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2947-2026, 2026
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An ensemble of regional climate model simulations is used to estimate the 21st century change in precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet. For the end of the century, the change is in the range 40 to 170 Gt per year, depending on the emission scenario. Using annual values of 2 m air temperature and precipitation, we estimate an increase in precipitation of 35 Gt per year for every degree of warming.
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 475–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, 2026
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There is a dangerous amount of uncertainty in our predictions of climate change in polar regions because some of feedbacks that might lead to changes that are too rapid for us to adapt to, or that cannot be reversed. We have run a set of simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model that helps improve our understanding of how climate in these regions might change. Some of the aspects we investigate are reversible but many are not, especially those affecting ice sheets and sea level.
Ella Gilbert, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Marte G. Hofsteenge, Willem Jan van de Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Christiaan Timo van Dalum, Xavier Fettweis, Siddharth Gumber, Nicolaj Hansen, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Damien Maure, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Andrew Orr, Tony Phillips, Maurice van Tiggelen, Kristiina Verro, and Priscilla A. Mooney
The Cryosphere, 20, 2629–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2629-2026, 2026
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Here we present a new dataset – the PolarRES ensemble – of four state-of-the-art regional climate models, which capture the full complexity of Antarctica's climate. The ensemble out-performs other available tools, advancing our ability to explore Antarctic climate. While it still has limitations, the PolarRES ensemble offers a novel and exciting way of evaluating climate processes and features, and we encourage researchers to use the data, which are freely available.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
José Abraham Torres Alavez, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Lavergne, Rasmus Pedersen, and Ole Bøssing Christensen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6183, 2026
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Coastal polynyas shape sea ice production and polar climate. This study analyses Greenland and Antarctic polynyas using two satellite sea-ice products and HCLIM simulations. The high-resolution CCI dataset improves polynya representation, boundary-layer structure, and near-surface conditions. Results show that integrating high-resolution sea-ice data enhances regional climate modelling and supports better reanalysis systems.
Hamish D. Pritchard, Edward C. King, David J. Goodger, Douglas Boyle, Daniel N. Goldberg, Beatriz Recinos, Andrew Orr, and Dhananjay Regmi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 199–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-199-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-199-2026, 2026
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We present a new and uniquely extensive dataset of glacier thickness from the Khumbu Himal around Mount Everest that stretches for 119 km, doubling the extent of thickness measurements in High Mountain Asia. Such measurements are key inputs for models that estimate how much ice is stored on the whole mountain range scale and for models that predict how this ice reserve will change in future, and what impact this will have on water supply for the large populations living downstream.
Heiko Goelzer, Constantijn J. Berends, Fredrik Boberg, Gael Durand, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Quentin Glaude, Philippe Huybrechts, Sébastien Le clec'h, Ruth Mottram, Brice Noël, Martin Olesen, Charlotte Rahlves, Jeremy Rohmer, Michiel van den Broeke, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 6887–6906, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6887-2025, 2025
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We present an ensemble of ice sheet model projections for the Greenland ice sheet. The focus is on providing projections that improve our understanding of the range future sea-level rise and the inherent uncertainties over the next 100 to 300 years. Compared to earlier work we more fully account for some of the uncertainties in sea-level projections. We include a wider range of climate model output, more climate change scenarios and we extend projections schematically up to year 2300.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Cécile Agosta
The Cryosphere, 19, 6023–6042, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025, 2025
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We analyse changes in Antarctic winter surface winds projected by 4 models. Depending on the area and model, changes on the continent by 2100 reveal opposing trends. Nevertheless, models agree on a strengthening of surface winds in Adélie Land for example and a weakening in some other areas such as the Amundsen region. We attribute the strengthening of near-surface winds to changes in the large-sale atmospheric circulation and the weakening to changes in the structure of the lower atmosphere.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
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The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Nicolaj Hansen, Fredrik Boberg, Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 19, 5157–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5157-2025, 2025
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Perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), year-round bodies of liquid water within firns, can potentially impact ice-shelf and ice-sheet stability. We developed a fast XGBoost firn emulator to predict the 21st-century distribution of PFAs in Antarctica for 12 climatic forcing datasets. Our findings suggest that, in low-emission scenarios, PFAs remain confined to the Antarctic Peninsula. However, in a high-emission scenario, PFAs are projected to expand to a region in West Antarctica and East Antarctica.
Thomas Dethinne, Nicolas Ghilain, Christoph Kittel, Benjamin Lecart, Xavier Fettweis, and François Jonard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3907, 2025
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This study replace standard vegetation input of a regional climate model with a satellite-based vegetation dataset to assess how vegetation influences climate during extreme events and to test the sensitivity of the model. The results show a non-linear sensitivity to vegetation, and using an observation-based vegetation input allows for a better representation of the extreme events, highlight the need for an advanced representation of vegetation in climate model to improve climate predictions.
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, and Johanna Beckmann
The Cryosphere, 19, 4459–4469, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4459-2025, 2025
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This study explores how the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) responds to different levels of stabilized global warming and if the climate cools back. Our findings show that global temperature increases beyond +2.3 °C mark a critical threshold. We also highlight the importance of limiting warming to avoid irreversible ice loss, as well as the potential for recovery after temporarily exceeding warming thresholds if action is taken quickly to lower global temperatures.
Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen, Henriette Skourup, Eero Rinne, Arttu Jutila, Isobel R. Lawrence, Andrew Shepherd, Knut Vilhelm Høyland, Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Sebastian Bjerregaaard Simonsen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Gaelle Veyssiere, Donghui Yi, René Forsberg, and Taniâ Gil Duarte Casal
The Cryosphere, 19, 4193–4209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4193-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4193-2025, 2025
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An airborne campaign collected unprecedented coincident multi-frequency radar and lidar data over sea ice along a CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 (CRYO2ICE) orbit in the Weddell Sea, useful for evaluating microwave snow penetration. Ka-band and Ku-band had limited penetration with significant contributions from the air–snow interface, contradicting traditional assumptions with discrepancies between commonly used C/S-band "snow-radar" methodologies, all challenging comparisons of airborne and spaceborne estimates.
Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen, Henriette Skourup, Eero Rinne, Arttu Jutila, Isobel R. Lawrence, Andrew Shepherd, Knut Vilhelm Høyland, Jilu Li, Fernando Rodriguez-Morales, Sebastian Bjerregaaard Simonsen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Gaelle Veyssiere, Donghui Yi, René Forsberg, and Taniâ Gil Duarte Casal
The Cryosphere, 19, 4167–4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4167-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4167-2025, 2025
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An airborne campaign collected unprecedented coincident multi-frequency radar and lidar data over sea ice along a CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 (CRYO2ICE) orbit in the Weddell Sea, useful for evaluating microwave snow penetration. Ka-band and Ku-band had limited penetration with significant contributions from the air–snow interface, contradicting traditional assumptions with discrepancies between commonly used C/S-band "snow-radar" methodologies, all challenging comparisons of airborne and spaceborne estimates.
Anna Puggaard, Nicolaj Hansen, Ruth Mottram, Thomas Nagler, Stefan Scheiblauer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Louise S. Sørensen, Jan Wuite, and Anne M. Solgaard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2963–2981, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2963-2025, 2025
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Regional climate models are currently the only source for assessing the melt volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet on a global scale. This study compares the modeled melt volume with observations from weather stations and melt extent observed from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) to assess the performance of the models. It highlights the importance of critically evaluating model outputs with high-quality satellite measurements to improve the understanding of variability among models.
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3073–3100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, 2025
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We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical or machine learning techniques. Our results show that this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote ungauged areas, suggesting that it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Thomas Slater, Richard Rigby, and Nicolaj Hansen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3259–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3259-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3259-2025, 2025
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Grounding line discharge is a measure of the amount of ice entering the ocean from an ice mass. This paper describes a dataset of grounding line discharge for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and each of its glaciers. The dataset shows that Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding line discharge has increased since 1996.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
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A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Kirk M. Scanlan, Anja Rutishauser, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
The Cryosphere, 19, 1221–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1221-2025, 2025
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An ice sheet's surface modulates its response to climate change, and it is therefore critical to monitor how it evolves through time. Here, we investigate novel measurements of Greenland surface roughness based on the strength of reflected local airborne and pan-Greenland satellite radar signals. These measurements respond to roughness at scales typically larger than those considered in mass balance modelling while highlighting the scale dependency of surface roughness that is often overlooked.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Ella Gilbert, Denis Pishniak, José Abraham Torres, Andrew Orr, Michelle Maclennan, Nander Wever, and Kristiina Verro
The Cryosphere, 19, 597–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-597-2025, 2025
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We use three sophisticated climate models to examine extreme precipitation in a critical region of West Antarctica. We found that rainfall probably occurred during the two cases we examined and that it was generated by the interaction of air with steep topography. Our results show that kilometre-scale models are useful tools for exploring extreme precipitation in this region and that more observations of rainfall are needed.
Florian Sauerland, Niels Souverijns, Anna Possner, Heike Wex, Preben Van Overmeiren, Alexander Mangold, Kwinten Van Weverberg, and Nicole van Lipzig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 13751–13768, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-13751-2024, 2024
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We use a regional climate model, COSMO-CLM², enhanced with a module resolving aerosol processes, to study Antarctic clouds. We prescribe different concentrations of ice-nucleating particles to our model to assess how these clouds respond to concentration changes, validating results with cloud and aerosol observations from the Princess Elisabeth Antarctica station. Our results show that aerosol–cloud interactions vary with temperature, providing valuable insights into Antarctic cloud dynamics.
Mai Winstrup, Heidi Ranndal, Signe Hillerup Larsen, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Robert S. Fausto, and Louise Sandberg Sørensen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5405–5428, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5405-2024, 2024
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Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving. Here we present an annual series (2019–2022) of summer digital elevation models (PRODEMs) for the Greenland Ice Sheet margin, covering all outlet glaciers from the ice sheet. The PRODEMs are based on fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry. With their high spatial and temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will enable detailed studies of the changes in marginal ice sheet elevations.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
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This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
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While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Nicolaj Hansen, Andrew Orr, Xun Zou, Fredrik Boberg, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Ella Gilbert, Peter L. Langen, Matthew A. Lazzara, Ruth Mottram, Tony Phillips, Ruth Price, Sebastian B. Simonsen, and Stuart Webster
The Cryosphere, 18, 2897–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2897-2024, 2024
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We investigated a melt event over the Ross Ice Shelf. We use regional climate models and a firn model to simulate the melt and compare the results with satellite data. We find that the firn model aligned well with observed melt days in certain parts of the ice shelf. The firn model had challenges accurately simulating the melt extent in the western sector. We identified potential reasons for these discrepancies, pointing to limitations in the models related to representing the cloud properties.
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Cécile Agosta, Charles Amory, and Christoph Kittel
The Cryosphere, 18, 2239–2256, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2239-2024, 2024
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Coastal surface winds in Antarctica are amongst the strongest winds on Earth. They are either driven by the cooling of the surface air mass by the ice sheet (katabatic) or by large-scale pressure systems. Here we compute the relative contribution of these drivers. We find that seasonal variations in the wind speed come from the katabatic acceleration, but, at a 3-hourly timescale, none of the large-scale or katabatic accelerations can be considered as the main driver.
Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Ruth Mottram, Anne Munck Solgaard, Joachim Mathiesen, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 1947–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, 2024
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Ice fracture can cause glacier crevassing and calving. These natural hazards can also modulate the flow and evolution of ice sheets. In a new study, we use a new high-resolution dataset to determine a new failure criterion for glacier ice. Surprisingly, the strength of ice depends on the mode of deformation, and this has potential implications for the currently used flow law of ice.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Robert S. Fausto, Jason E. Box, Federico Covi, Regine Hock, Åsa K. Rennermalm, Achim Heilig, Jakob Abermann, Dirk van As, Elisa Bjerre, Xavier Fettweis, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Max Brils, Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, and Andreas P. Ahlstrøm
The Cryosphere, 18, 609–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-609-2024, 2024
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How fast is the Greenland ice sheet warming? In this study, we compiled 4500+ temperature measurements at 10 m below the ice sheet surface (T10m) from 1912 to 2022. We trained a machine learning model on these data and reconstructed T10m for the ice sheet during 1950–2022. After a slight cooling during 1950–1985, the ice sheet warmed at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade until 2022. Climate models showed mixed results compared to our observations and underestimated the warming in key regions.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Rasmus Bahbah, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Natalia Havelund Andersen, Jade Bowling, Noel Gourmelen, Alex Horton, Nanna B. Karlsson, Amber Leeson, Jennifer Maddalena, Malcolm McMillan, Anne Solgaard, and Birgit Wessel
The Cryosphere, 18, 505–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-505-2024, 2024
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Under the right topographic and hydrological conditions, lakes may form beneath the large ice sheets. Some of these subglacial lakes are active, meaning that they periodically drain and refill. When a subglacial lake drains rapidly, it may cause the ice surface above to collapse, and here we investigate how to improve the monitoring of active subglacial lakes in Greenland by monitoring how their associated collapse basins change over time.
Aymeric P. M. Servettaz, Cécile Agosta, Christoph Kittel, and Anaïs J. Orsi
The Cryosphere, 17, 5373–5389, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5373-2023, 2023
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It has been previously observed in polar regions that the atmospheric temperature is warmer during precipitation events. Here, we use a regional atmospheric model to quantify the temperature changes associated with snowfall events across Antarctica. We show that more intense snowfall is statistically associated with a warmer temperature anomaly compared to the seasonal average, with the largest anomalies seen in winter. This bias may affect water isotopes in ice cores deposited during snowfall.
Damien Maure, Christoph Kittel, Clara Lambin, Alison Delhasse, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4645–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4645-2023, 2023
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The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the Earth. Studies have already shown that Greenland and the Canadian Arctic are experiencing a record increase in melting rates, while Svalbard has been relatively less impacted. Looking at those regions but also extending the study to Iceland and the Russian Arctic archipelagoes, we see a heterogeneity in the melting-rate response to the Arctic warming, with the Russian archipelagoes experiencing lower melting rates than other regions.
Thomas Dethinne, Quentin Glaude, Ghislain Picard, Christoph Kittel, Patrick Alexander, Anne Orban, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4267–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4267-2023, 2023
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We investigate the sensitivity of the regional climate model
Modèle Atmosphérique Régional(MAR) to the assimilation of wet-snow occurrence estimated by remote sensing datasets. The assimilation is performed by nudging the MAR snowpack temperature. The data assimilation is performed over the Antarctic Peninsula for the 2019–2021 period. The results show an increase in the melt production (+66.7 %) and a decrease in surface mass balance (−4.5 %) of the model for the 2019–2020 melt season.
Nicolaj Hansen, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Giorgio Spada, Daniele Melini, Rene Forsberg, Ruth Mottram, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, 2023
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We use ICESat-2 to estimate the surface elevation change over Greenland and Antarctica in the period of 2018 to 2021. Numerical models have been used the compute the firn compaction and the vertical bedrock movement so non-mass-related elevation changes can be taken into account. We have made a parameterization of the surface density so we can convert the volume change to mass change. We find that Antarctica has lost 135.7±27.3 Gt per year, and the Greenland ice sheet 237.5±14.0 Gt per year.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
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By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Jeremy Carter, Amber Leeson, Andrew Orr, Christoph Kittel, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 16, 3815–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022, 2022
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Climate models provide valuable information for studying processes such as the collapse of ice shelves over Antarctica which impact estimates of sea level rise. This paper examines variability across climate simulations over Antarctica for fields including snowfall, temperature and melt. Significant systematic differences between outputs are found, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results are important for future impact assessments and model development.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
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Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Matthew K. Laffin, Charles S. Zender, Melchior van Wessem, and Sebastián Marinsek
The Cryosphere, 16, 1369–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1369-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1369-2022, 2022
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The collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) occurred while the ice shelves were covered with large melt lakes, and ocean waves damaged the ice shelf fronts, triggering collapse. Observations show föhn winds were present on both ice shelves and increased surface melt and drove sea ice away from the ice front. Collapsed ice shelves experienced enhanced surface melt driven by föhn winds, whereas extant ice shelves are affected less by föhn-wind-induced melt.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Fredrik Boberg, Ruth Mottram, Nicolaj Hansen, Shuting Yang, and Peter L. Langen
The Cryosphere, 16, 17–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-17-2022, 2022
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Using the regional climate model HIRHAM5, we compare two versions (v2 and v3) of the global climate model EC-Earth for the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. We are interested in the surface mass balance of the ice sheets due to its importance when making estimates of future sea level rise. We find that the end-of-century change in the surface mass balance for Antarctica is 420 Gt yr−1 (v2) and 80 Gt yr−1 (v3), and for Greenland it is −290 Gt yr−1 (v2) and −1640 Gt yr−1 (v3).
Peter A. Tuckett, Jeremy C. Ely, Andrew J. Sole, James M. Lea, Stephen J. Livingstone, Julie M. Jones, and J. Melchior van Wessem
The Cryosphere, 15, 5785–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5785-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5785-2021, 2021
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Lakes form on the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the summer. These lakes can generate further melt, break up floating ice shelves and alter ice dynamics. Here, we describe a new automated method for mapping surface lakes and apply our technique to the Amery Ice Shelf between 2005 and 2020. Lake area is highly variable between years, driven by large-scale climate patterns. This technique will help us understand the role of Antarctic surface lakes in our warming world.
Kenneth D. Mankoff, Xavier Fettweis, Peter L. Langen, Martin Stendel, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Nanna B. Karlsson, Brice Noël, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Anne Solgaard, William Colgan, Jason E. Box, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Michalea D. King, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe Bech Andersen, and Robert S. Fausto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5001–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5001-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the daily mass balance and its components (surface, marine, and basal mass balance) for the Greenland ice sheet. Our time series begins in 1840 and has annual resolution through 1985 and then daily from 1986 through next week. Results are operational (updated daily) and provided for the entire ice sheet or by commonly used regions or sectors. This is the first input–output mass balance estimate to include the basal mass balance.
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Short summary
We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over Antarctica. We used ice masks and data from five of the most used regional climate models and a common mask. We see large disagreement between the ice masks, which has a large impact on the surface mass balance, especially around the Antarctic Peninsula and some of the largest glaciers. We suggest a solution for creating a new, up-to-date, high-resolution ice mask that can be used in Antarctic modelling.
We investigate the impact of different ice masks when modelling surface mass balance over...
