Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Jul 2025
Research article |
| 01 Jul 2025
| 01 Jul 2025
The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast
Douglas J. Brinkerhoff
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
Brandon S. Tober
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Michael Daniel
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Victor Devaux-Chupin
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Michael S. Christoffersen
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
John W. Holt
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Christopher F. Larsen
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Mark Fahnestock
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Michael G. Loso
Wrangell–St. Elias National Park and Preserve, National Park Service, Copper Center, AK, USA
Kristin M. F. Timm
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
Russell C. Mitchell
Department of Computer Science, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
Martin Truffer
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
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Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
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Short summary
Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know...
