The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Research article
 | 
01 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 01 Jul 2025

The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast

Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Brandon S. Tober, Michael Daniel, Victor Devaux-Chupin, Michael S. Christoffersen, John W. Holt, Christopher F. Larsen, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G. Loso, Kristin M. F. Timm, Russell C. Mitchell, and Martin Truffer

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Short summary
Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
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Improving the contribution of the land cryosphere to sea level...