Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 07 Jan 2025
| 07 Jan 2025
New glacier thickness and bed topography maps for Svalbard
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Thomas Frank
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Related authors
Tim van den Akker, Ward van Pelt, Rickard Petterson, and Veijo A. Pohjola
The Cryosphere, 19, 1513–1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1513-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Liquid water can persist within old snow on glaciers and ice caps if it can percolate into the snow before it refreezes. Snow is a good insulator, and it is porous where the percolated water can be stored. If this happens, the water piles up and forms a groundwater-like system. Here, we show observations of such a groundwater-like system found in Svalbard. We demonstrate that it behaves like a groundwater system and use that to model the development of the water table from 1957 until the present day.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
Marlene Kronenberg, Ward van Pelt, Horst Machguth, Joel Fiddes, Martin Hoelzle, and Felix Pertziger
The Cryosphere, 16, 5001–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Pamir Alay is located at the edge of regions with anomalous glacier mass changes. Unique long-term in situ data are available for Abramov Glacier, located in the Pamir Alay. In this study, we use this extraordinary data set in combination with reanalysis data and a coupled surface energy balance–multilayer subsurface model to compute and analyse the distributed climatic mass balance and firn evolution from 1968 to 2020.
Enrico Mattea, Horst Machguth, Marlene Kronenberg, Ward van Pelt, Manuela Bassi, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 15, 3181–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we find that climate change is affecting the high-alpine Colle Gnifetti glacier (Swiss–Italian Alps) with an increase in melt amounts and ice temperatures.
In the near future this trend could threaten the viability of the oldest ice core record in the Alps.
To reach our conclusions, for the first time we used the meteorological data of the highest permanent weather station in Europe (Capanna Margherita, 4560 m), together with an advanced numeric simulation of the glacier.
Christian Zdanowicz, Jean-Charles Gallet, Mats P. Björkman, Catherine Larose, Thomas Schuler, Bartłomiej Luks, Krystyna Koziol, Andrea Spolaor, Elena Barbaro, Tõnu Martma, Ward van Pelt, Ulla Wideqvist, and Johan Ström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosols are soot-like particles which, when transported to the Arctic, darken snow surfaces, thus indirectly affecting climate. Information on BC in Arctic snow is needed to measure their impact and monitor the efficacy of pollution-reduction policies. This paper presents a large new set of BC measurements in snow in Svalbard collected between 2007 and 2018. It describes how BC in snow varies across the archipelago and explores some factors controlling these variations.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter L. Langen, Robert S. Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Leeson, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia Miller, Clifford I. Voss, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 14, 3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the vast interior of the Greenland ice sheet, snow accumulates into a thick and porous layer called firn. Each summer, the firn retains part of the meltwater generated at the surface and buffers sea-level rise. In this study, we compare nine firn models traditionally used to quantify this retention at four sites and evaluate their performance against a set of in situ observations. We highlight limitations of certain model designs and give perspectives for future model development.
Ankit Pramanik, Jack Kohler, Katrin Lindbäck, Penelope How, Ward Van Pelt, Glen Liston, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater discharge from tidewater glaciers influences fjord circulation and fjord ecosystem. Glacier hydrology plays crucial role in transporting water underneath glacier ice. We investigated hydrology beneath the tidewater glaciers of Kongsfjord basin in Northwest Svalbard and found that subglacial water flow differs substantially from surface flow of glacier ice. Furthermore, we derived freshwater discharge time-series from all the glaciers to the fjord.
Ward van Pelt, Veijo Pohjola, Rickard Pettersson, Sergey Marchenko, Jack Kohler, Bartłomiej Luks, Jon Ove Hagen, Thomas V. Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Brice Noël, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 13, 2259–2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climate in Svalbard is undergoing amplified change compared to the global mean, which has a strong impact on the climatic mass balance of glaciers and the state of seasonal snow in land areas. In this study we analyze a coupled energy balance–subsurface model dataset, which provides detailed information on distributed climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff across Svalbard between 1957 and 2018.
Sergey Marchenko, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, Veijo Pohjola, Rickard Pettersson, Ward van Pelt, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 13, 1843–1859, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1843-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1843-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Thermal conductivity (k) of firn at Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard, is estimated using measured temperature evolution and density. The optimized k values (0.2–1.6 W (m K)−1) increase downwards and over time and are most sensitive to systematic errors in measured temperature values and their depths, particularly in the lower part of the profile. Compared to the density-based parameterizations, derived k values are consistently larger, suggesting a faster conductive heat exchange in firn.
Solveig H. Winsvold, Andreas Kääb, Christopher Nuth, Liss M. Andreassen, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Thomas Schellenberger
The Cryosphere, 12, 867–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-867-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-867-2018, 2018
Dorothée Vallot, Jan Åström, Thomas Zwinger, Rickard Pettersson, Alistair Everett, Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Faezeh Nick, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 12, 609–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-609-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-609-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new perspective on the role of ice dynamics and ocean interaction in glacier calving processes applied to Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard. A global modelling approach includes ice flow modelling, undercutting estimation by a combination of glacier energy balance and plume modelling as well as calving by a discrete particle model. We show that modelling undercutting is necessary and calving is influenced by basal friction velocity and geometry.
Penelope How, Douglas I. Benn, Nicholas R. J. Hulton, Bryn Hubbard, Adrian Luckman, Heïdi Sevestre, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Katrin Lindbäck, Jack Kohler, and Wim Boot
The Cryosphere, 11, 2691–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2691-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2691-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides valuable insight into subglacial hydrology and dynamics at tidewater glaciers, which remains a poorly understood area of glaciology. It is a unique study because of the wealth of information provided by simultaneous observations of glacier hydrology at Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard. All these elements build a strong conceptual picture of the glacier's hydrological regime over the 2014 melt season.
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
Carmen P. Vega, Veijo A. Pohjola, Emilie Beaudon, Björn Claremar, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Rickard Pettersson, Elisabeth Isaksson, Tõnu Martma, Margit Schwikowski, and Carl E. Bøggild
The Cryosphere, 10, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-961-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-961-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify post-depositional relocation of major ions by meltwater in snow and firn at Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard, consecutive ice cores drilled at this site were used to construct a synthetic core. The relocation length of most of the ions was on the order of 1 m between 2007 and 2010. Considering the ionic relocation lengths and annual melt percentages, we estimate that the atmospheric ionic signal remains preserved in recently drilled Lomonosovfonna ice cores at an annual or bi-annual resolution.
W. J. J. van Pelt, J. Oerlemans, C. H. Reijmer, R. Pettersson, V. A. Pohjola, E. Isaksson, and D. Divine
The Cryosphere, 7, 987–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-987-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-987-2013, 2013
Tim van den Akker, Ward van Pelt, Rickard Petterson, and Veijo A. Pohjola
The Cryosphere, 19, 1513–1525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1513-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1513-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Liquid water can persist within old snow on glaciers and ice caps if it can percolate into the snow before it refreezes. Snow is a good insulator, and it is porous where the percolated water can be stored. If this happens, the water piles up and forms a groundwater-like system. Here, we show observations of such a groundwater-like system found in Svalbard. We demonstrate that it behaves like a groundwater system and use that to model the development of the water table from 1957 until the present day.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
Marlene Kronenberg, Ward van Pelt, Horst Machguth, Joel Fiddes, Martin Hoelzle, and Felix Pertziger
The Cryosphere, 16, 5001–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Pamir Alay is located at the edge of regions with anomalous glacier mass changes. Unique long-term in situ data are available for Abramov Glacier, located in the Pamir Alay. In this study, we use this extraordinary data set in combination with reanalysis data and a coupled surface energy balance–multilayer subsurface model to compute and analyse the distributed climatic mass balance and firn evolution from 1968 to 2020.
Thomas Frank, Henning Åkesson, Basile de Fleurian, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kerim H. Nisancioglu
The Cryosphere, 16, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-581-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The shape of a fjord can promote or inhibit glacier retreat in response to climate change. We conduct experiments with a synthetic setup under idealized conditions in a numerical model to study and quantify the processes involved. We find that friction between ice and fjord is the most important factor and that it is possible to directly link ice discharge and grounding line retreat to fjord topography in a quantitative way.
Enrico Mattea, Horst Machguth, Marlene Kronenberg, Ward van Pelt, Manuela Bassi, and Martin Hoelzle
The Cryosphere, 15, 3181–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3181-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we find that climate change is affecting the high-alpine Colle Gnifetti glacier (Swiss–Italian Alps) with an increase in melt amounts and ice temperatures.
In the near future this trend could threaten the viability of the oldest ice core record in the Alps.
To reach our conclusions, for the first time we used the meteorological data of the highest permanent weather station in Europe (Capanna Margherita, 4560 m), together with an advanced numeric simulation of the glacier.
Christian Zdanowicz, Jean-Charles Gallet, Mats P. Björkman, Catherine Larose, Thomas Schuler, Bartłomiej Luks, Krystyna Koziol, Andrea Spolaor, Elena Barbaro, Tõnu Martma, Ward van Pelt, Ulla Wideqvist, and Johan Ström
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3035-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Black carbon (BC) aerosols are soot-like particles which, when transported to the Arctic, darken snow surfaces, thus indirectly affecting climate. Information on BC in Arctic snow is needed to measure their impact and monitor the efficacy of pollution-reduction policies. This paper presents a large new set of BC measurements in snow in Svalbard collected between 2007 and 2018. It describes how BC in snow varies across the archipelago and explores some factors controlling these variations.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter L. Langen, Robert S. Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Leeson, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia Miller, Clifford I. Voss, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 14, 3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the vast interior of the Greenland ice sheet, snow accumulates into a thick and porous layer called firn. Each summer, the firn retains part of the meltwater generated at the surface and buffers sea-level rise. In this study, we compare nine firn models traditionally used to quantify this retention at four sites and evaluate their performance against a set of in situ observations. We highlight limitations of certain model designs and give perspectives for future model development.
Ankit Pramanik, Jack Kohler, Katrin Lindbäck, Penelope How, Ward Van Pelt, Glen Liston, and Thomas V. Schuler
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-197, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater discharge from tidewater glaciers influences fjord circulation and fjord ecosystem. Glacier hydrology plays crucial role in transporting water underneath glacier ice. We investigated hydrology beneath the tidewater glaciers of Kongsfjord basin in Northwest Svalbard and found that subglacial water flow differs substantially from surface flow of glacier ice. Furthermore, we derived freshwater discharge time-series from all the glaciers to the fjord.
Ward van Pelt, Veijo Pohjola, Rickard Pettersson, Sergey Marchenko, Jack Kohler, Bartłomiej Luks, Jon Ove Hagen, Thomas V. Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Brice Noël, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 13, 2259–2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2259-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The climate in Svalbard is undergoing amplified change compared to the global mean, which has a strong impact on the climatic mass balance of glaciers and the state of seasonal snow in land areas. In this study we analyze a coupled energy balance–subsurface model dataset, which provides detailed information on distributed climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff across Svalbard between 1957 and 2018.
Sergey Marchenko, Gong Cheng, Per Lötstedt, Veijo Pohjola, Rickard Pettersson, Ward van Pelt, and Carleen Reijmer
The Cryosphere, 13, 1843–1859, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1843-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1843-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Thermal conductivity (k) of firn at Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard, is estimated using measured temperature evolution and density. The optimized k values (0.2–1.6 W (m K)−1) increase downwards and over time and are most sensitive to systematic errors in measured temperature values and their depths, particularly in the lower part of the profile. Compared to the density-based parameterizations, derived k values are consistently larger, suggesting a faster conductive heat exchange in firn.
Solveig H. Winsvold, Andreas Kääb, Christopher Nuth, Liss M. Andreassen, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Thomas Schellenberger
The Cryosphere, 12, 867–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-867-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-867-2018, 2018
Dorothée Vallot, Jan Åström, Thomas Zwinger, Rickard Pettersson, Alistair Everett, Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Faezeh Nick, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 12, 609–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-609-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-609-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new perspective on the role of ice dynamics and ocean interaction in glacier calving processes applied to Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard. A global modelling approach includes ice flow modelling, undercutting estimation by a combination of glacier energy balance and plume modelling as well as calving by a discrete particle model. We show that modelling undercutting is necessary and calving is influenced by basal friction velocity and geometry.
Penelope How, Douglas I. Benn, Nicholas R. J. Hulton, Bryn Hubbard, Adrian Luckman, Heïdi Sevestre, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Katrin Lindbäck, Jack Kohler, and Wim Boot
The Cryosphere, 11, 2691–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2691-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2691-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides valuable insight into subglacial hydrology and dynamics at tidewater glaciers, which remains a poorly understood area of glaciology. It is a unique study because of the wealth of information provided by simultaneous observations of glacier hydrology at Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard. All these elements build a strong conceptual picture of the glacier's hydrological regime over the 2014 melt season.
Daniel Farinotti, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Garry K. C. Clarke, Johannes J. Fürst, Holger Frey, Prateek Gantayat, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Claire Girard, Matthias Huss, Paul W. Leclercq, Andreas Linsbauer, Horst Machguth, Carlos Martin, Fabien Maussion, Mathieu Morlighem, Cyrille Mosbeux, Ankur Pandit, Andrea Portmann, Antoine Rabatel, RAAJ Ramsankaran, Thomas J. Reerink, Olivier Sanchez, Peter A. Stentoft, Sangita Singh Kumari, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Brian Anderson, Toby Benham, Daniel Binder, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Andrea Fischer, Kay Helfricht, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Robert McNabb, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Huilin Li, and Liss M. Andreassen
The Cryosphere, 11, 949–970, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-949-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
ITMIX – the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment – was the first coordinated performance assessment for models inferring glacier ice thickness from surface characteristics. Considering 17 different models and 21 different test cases, we show that although solutions of individual models can differ considerably, an ensemble average can yield uncertainties in the order of 10 ± 24 % the mean ice thickness. Ways forward for improving such estimates are sketched.
Carmen P. Vega, Veijo A. Pohjola, Emilie Beaudon, Björn Claremar, Ward J. J. van Pelt, Rickard Pettersson, Elisabeth Isaksson, Tõnu Martma, Margit Schwikowski, and Carl E. Bøggild
The Cryosphere, 10, 961–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-961-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-961-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify post-depositional relocation of major ions by meltwater in snow and firn at Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard, consecutive ice cores drilled at this site were used to construct a synthetic core. The relocation length of most of the ions was on the order of 1 m between 2007 and 2010. Considering the ionic relocation lengths and annual melt percentages, we estimate that the atmospheric ionic signal remains preserved in recently drilled Lomonosovfonna ice cores at an annual or bi-annual resolution.
W. J. J. van Pelt, J. Oerlemans, C. H. Reijmer, R. Pettersson, V. A. Pohjola, E. Isaksson, and D. Divine
The Cryosphere, 7, 987–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-987-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-987-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Glaciers | Subject: Numerical Modelling
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Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, Brandon S. Tober, Michael Daniel, Victor Devaux-Chupin, Michael S. Christoffersen, John W. Holt, Christopher F. Larsen, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G. Loso, Kristin M. F. Timm, Russell C. Mitchell, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 19, 2321–2353, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2321-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 19, 1491–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Marijn van der Meer, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Jordi Bolibar, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 19, 805–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Glacier retreat poses big challenges, making understanding how climate affects glaciers vital. But glacier measurements worldwide are limited. We created a simple machine-learning model called miniML-MB, which estimates annual changes in glacier mass in the Swiss Alps. As input, miniML-MB uses two climate variables: average temperature (May–Aug) and total precipitation (Oct–Feb). Our model can accurately predict glacier mass from 1961 to 2021 but struggles for extreme years (2022 and 2023).
Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert
The Cryosphere, 19, 685–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, 2025
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We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.
Felicity Alice Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3839, 2024
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Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low and high emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high emissions future leads to a sea-level rise contribution an order of magnitude higher than under a low emissions future.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
The Cryosphere, 18, 5789–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, 2024
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In 2022, multi-year landfast sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the fast ice was joined to the glacier terminus, it could provide resistance against the glacier's flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the fast ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
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The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
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This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
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A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387, 2024
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Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g. 100 year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations, to get more accurate information on 5–10 year time scales. Reliable information on these time scales is very important, especially for water management experts to know how much meltwater to expect, for rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
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Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Thomas Frank, Ward J. J. van Pelt, and Jack Kohler
The Cryosphere, 17, 4021–4045, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4021-2023, 2023
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Since the ice thickness of most glaciers worldwide is unknown, and since it is not feasible to visit every glacier and observe their thickness directly, inverse modelling techniques are needed that can calculate ice thickness from abundant surface observations. Here, we present a new method for doing that. Our methodology relies on modelling the rate of surface elevation change for a given glacier, compare this with observations of the same quantity and change the bed until the two are in line.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
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We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Yukihiko Onuma, Koji Fujita, Nozomu Takeuchi, Masashi Niwano, and Teruo Aoki
The Cryosphere, 17, 3309–3328, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3309-2023, 2023
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We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in cryoconite hole (CH) depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole shape geometry. The simulations suggest that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the wind speed. The meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent ice surface darkening via the redistribution of CHs.
Lander Van Tricht and Philippe Huybrechts
The Cryosphere, 16, 4513–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4513-2022, 2022
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We examine the thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier, both located in the inner Tien Shan in Kyrgyzstan. Our findings are important as the ice dynamics can only be understood and modelled precisely if ice temperature is considered correctly in ice flow models. The calibrated parameters of this study can be used in applications with ice flow models for individual ice masses as well as to optimise more general models for large-scale regional simulations.
Loris Compagno, Matthias Huss, Evan Stewart Miles, Michael James McCarthy, Harry Zekollari, Amaury Dehecq, Francesca Pellicciotti, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1697–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1697-2022, 2022
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We present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution. We implement the module into a combined mass-balance ice-flow model, and we apply it using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia. We show that glacier geometry, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently when modelling explicitly debris cover compared to glacier evolution without the debris-cover module, demonstrating the importance of accounting for debris.
Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve
The Cryosphere, 15, 3637–3654, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021, 2021
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We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
James C. Ferguson and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 3377–3399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3377-2021, 2021
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Debris-covered glaciers have a greater extent than their debris-free counterparts due to insulation from the debris cover. However, the transient response to climate change remains poorly understood. We use a numerical model that couples ice dynamics and debris transport and varies the climate signal. We find that debris cover delays the transient response, especially for the extent. However, adding cryokarst features near the terminus greatly enhances the response.
Jan-Hendrik Malles and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 15, 3135–3157, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3135-2021, 2021
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To better estimate the uncertainty in glacier mass change modeling during the 20th century we ran an established model with an ensemble of meteorological data sets. We find that the total ensemble uncertainty, especially in the early 20th century, when glaciological and meteorological observations at glacier locations were sparse, increases considerably compared to individual ensemble runs. This stems from regions with a lot of ice mass but few observations (e.g., Greenland periphery).
Guillaume Jouvet, Stefan Röllin, Hans Sahli, José Corcho, Lars Gnägi, Loris Compagno, Dominik Sidler, Margit Schwikowski, Andreas Bauder, and Martin Funk
The Cryosphere, 14, 4233–4251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4233-2020, 2020
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We show that plutonium is an effective tracer to identify ice originating from the early 1960s at the surface of a mountain glacier after a long time within the ice flow, giving unique information on the long-term former ice motion. Combined with ice flow modelling, the dating can be extended to the entire glacier, and we show that an airplane which crash-landed on the Gauligletscher in 1946 will likely soon be released from the ice close to the place where pieces have emerged in recent years.
Yoni Verhaegen, Philippe Huybrechts, Oleg Rybak, and Victor V. Popovnin
The Cryosphere, 14, 4039–4061, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4039-2020, 2020
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We use a numerical flow model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a WGMS reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). In particular, we adapt a more sophisticated and physically based debris model, which has not been previously applied in time-dependent numerical flow line models, to look at the impact of a debris cover on the glacier’s evolution.
Brandon Berg and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3209–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3209-2020, 2020
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Computer models of ice sheets and glaciers are an important component of projecting sea level rise due to climate change. For models that seek to simulate the full balance of forces within the ice, if portions of the glacier are allowed to quickly break off in a process called iceberg calving, a numerical issue arises that can cause inaccurate results. We examine the issue and propose a solution so that future models can more accurately predict the future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers.
David Parkes and Hugues Goosse
The Cryosphere, 14, 3135–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3135-2020, 2020
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Direct records of glacier changes rarely go back more than the last 100 years and are few and far between. We used a sophisticated glacier model to simulate glacier length changes over the last 1000 years for those glaciers that we do have long-term records of, to determine whether the model can run in a stable, realistic way over a long timescale, reproducing recent observed trends. We find that post-industrial changes are larger than other changes in this time period driven by recent warming.
John Erich Christian, Alexander A. Robel, Cristian Proistosescu, Gerard Roe, Michelle Koutnik, and Knut Christianson
The Cryosphere, 14, 2515–2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2515-2020, 2020
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We use simple, physics-based models to compare how marine-terminating glaciers respond to changes at their marine margin vs. inland surface melt. Initial glacier retreat is more rapid for ocean changes than for inland changes, but in both cases, glaciers will continue responding for millennia. We analyze several implications of these differing pathways of change. In particular, natural ocean variability must be better understood to correctly identify the anthropogenic role in glacier retreat.
Jordi Bolibar, Antoine Rabatel, Isabelle Gouttevin, Clovis Galiez, Thomas Condom, and Eric Sauquet
The Cryosphere, 14, 565–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-565-2020, 2020
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We introduce a novel approach for simulating glacier mass balances using a deep artificial neural network (i.e. deep learning) from climate and topographical data. This has been added as a component of a new open-source parameterized glacier evolution model. Deep learning is found to outperform linear machine learning methods, mainly due to its nonlinearity. Potential applications range from regional mass balance reconstructions from observations to simulations for past and future climates.
Julia Eis, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 3317–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3317-2019, 2019
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To provide estimates of past glacier mass changes, an adequate initial state is required. However, information about past glacier states at regional or global scales is largely incomplete. Our study presents a new way to initialize the Open Global Glacier Model from past climate information and present-day geometries. We show that even with perfectly known but incomplete boundary conditions, the problem of model initialization leads to nonunique solutions, and we propose an ensemble approach.
Shun Tsutaki, Koji Fujita, Takayuki Nuimura, Akiko Sakai, Shin Sugiyama, Jiro Komori, and Phuntsho Tshering
The Cryosphere, 13, 2733–2750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2733-2019, 2019
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We investigate thickness change of Bhutanese glaciers during 2004–2011 using repeat GPS surveys and satellite-based observations. The thinning rate of Lugge Glacier (LG) is > 3 times that of Thorthormi Glacier (TG). Numerical simulations of ice dynamics and surface mass balance (SMB) demonstrate that the rapid thinning of LG is driven by both negative SMB and dynamic thinning, while the thinning of TG is minimised by a longitudinally compressive flow regime.
Beatriz Recinos, Fabien Maussion, Timo Rothenpieler, and Ben Marzeion
The Cryosphere, 13, 2657–2672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2657-2019, 2019
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We have implemented a frontal ablation parameterization into the Open Global Glacier Model and have shown that inversion methods based on mass conservation systematically underestimate the mass turnover (and therefore the thickness) of tidewater glaciers when neglecting frontal ablation. This underestimation can rise up to 19 % on a regional scale. Not accounting for frontal ablation will have an impact on the estimate of the glaciers’ potential contribution to sea level rise.
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
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Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
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Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Cited articles
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Short summary
Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard's glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and a future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations to infer basal conditions. We present and analyse the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6800 km3), and compare these against radar data and previous studies.
Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard's glaciers is important for assessing the...
