Articles | Volume 16, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4679-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 11 Nov 2022
| 11 Nov 2022
The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Matthew J. Hoffman
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Mauro Perego
Center for Computing Research, Sandia National Laboratories,
Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA
Stephen F. Price
Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
Ian M. Howat
Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
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Trevor R. Hillebrand, John O. Stone, Michelle Koutnik, Courtney King, Howard Conway, Brenda Hall, Keir Nichols, Brent Goehring, and Mette K. Gillespie
The Cryosphere, 15, 3329–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, 2021
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We present chronologies from Darwin and Hatherton glaciers to better constrain ice sheet retreat during the last deglaciation in the Ross Sector of Antarctica. We use a glacier flowband model and an ensemble of 3D ice sheet model simulations to show that (i) the whole glacier system likely thinned steadily from about 9–3 ka, and (ii) the grounding line likely reached the Darwin–Hatherton Glacier System at about 3 ka, which is ≥3.8 kyr later than was suggested by previous reconstructions.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Matthew J. Hoffman, Carolyn Branecky Begeman, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Darin Comeau, Alice Barthel, Stephen F. Price, and Jonathan D. Wolfe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2226, 2023
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The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica is susceptible to the intrusion of deep, warm ocean water from below that could increase the melting at the ice-shelf base by a factor of 10. We show that representing this potential melt-regime switch in a low-resolution climate model requires careful treatment of iceberg melting and ocean mixing. We also demonstrate a possible ice-shelf melt domino effect where increased melting of nearby ice shelves can lead to the regime switch at Filchner-Ronne.
Hyein Jeong, Adrian K. Turner, Andrew F. Roberts, Milena Veneziani, Stephen F. Price, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Luke P. Van Roekel, Wuyin Lin, Peter M. Caldwell, Hyo-Seok Park, Jonathan D. Wolfe, and Azamat Mametjanov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2681–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2681-2023, 2023
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We find that E3SM-HR reproduces the main features of the Antarctic coastal polynyas. Despite the high amount of coastal sea ice production, the densest water masses are formed in the open ocean. Biases related to the lack of dense water formation are associated with overly strong atmospheric polar easterlies. Our results indicate that the large-scale polar atmospheric circulation must be accurately simulated in models to properly reproduce Antarctic dense water formation.
Mira Berdahl, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nathan M. Urban, and Matthew J. Hoffman
The Cryosphere, 17, 1513–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023, 2023
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Alexander O. Hager, Matthew J. Hoffman, Stephen F. Price, and Dustin M. Schroeder
The Cryosphere, 16, 3575–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3575-2022, 2022
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The presence of water beneath glaciers is a control on glacier speed and ocean-caused melting, yet it has been unclear whether sizable volumes of water can exist beneath Antarctic glaciers or how this water may flow along the glacier bed. We use computer simulations, supported by observations, to show that enough water exists at the base of Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, to form "rivers" beneath the glacier. These rivers likely moderate glacier speed and may influence its rate of retreat.
Thomas R. Chudley, Ian M. Howat, Bidhyananda Yadav, and Myoung-Jong Noh
The Cryosphere, 16, 2629–2642, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2629-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2629-2022, 2022
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Sentinel-2 images are subject to distortion due to orthorectification error, which makes it difficult to extract reliable glacier velocity fields from images from different orbits. Here, we use a complete record of velocity fields at four Greenlandic outlet glaciers to empirically estimate the systematic error, allowing us to correct cross-track glacier velocity fields to a comparable accuracy to other medium-resolution satellite datasets.
Trevor R. Hillebrand, John O. Stone, Michelle Koutnik, Courtney King, Howard Conway, Brenda Hall, Keir Nichols, Brent Goehring, and Mette K. Gillespie
The Cryosphere, 15, 3329–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3329-2021, 2021
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We present chronologies from Darwin and Hatherton glaciers to better constrain ice sheet retreat during the last deglaciation in the Ross Sector of Antarctica. We use a glacier flowband model and an ensemble of 3D ice sheet model simulations to show that (i) the whole glacier system likely thinned steadily from about 9–3 ka, and (ii) the grounding line likely reached the Darwin–Hatherton Glacier System at about 3 ka, which is ≥3.8 kyr later than was suggested by previous reconstructions.
Tong Zhang, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, and Xylar Asay-Davis
The Cryosphere, 14, 3407–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3407-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3407-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Adam M. Schneider, Charles S. Zender, and Stephen F. Price
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-247, 2020
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We enhance the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's land
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Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Dan Lu, Mary M. Forrester, Stephen Price, Jeremy Fyke, Andrew R. Bennett, Matthew J. Hoffman, Irina Tezaur, Charles S. Zender, and Miren Vizcaíno
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, 2019
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A robust validation of ice sheet models is presented using LIVVkit, version 2.1. It targets ice sheet and coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and operations that require high-performance computing and storage. We apply LIVVkit to a Greenland ice sheet simulation to show the degree to which it captures the surface mass balance. LIVVkit identifies a positive bias due to insufficient melting compared to observations that is focused largely around Greenland's southwest region.
William H. Lipscomb, Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Gunter R. Leguy, Andrew R. Bennett, Sarah L. Bradley, Katherine J. Evans, Jeremy G. Fyke, Joseph H. Kennedy, Mauro Perego, Douglas M. Ranken, William J. Sacks, Andrew G. Salinger, Lauren J. Vargo, and Patrick H. Worley
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019
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This paper describes the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) version 2.1. CISM solves equations for ice flow, heat conduction, surface melting, and other processes such as basal sliding and iceberg calving. It can be used for ice-sheet-only simulations or as the ice sheet component of the Community Earth System Model. Model solutions have been verified for standard test problems. CISM can efficiently simulate the whole Greenland ice sheet, with results that are broadly consistent with observations.
Matthew J. Hoffman, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, William H. Lipscomb, Tong Zhang, Douglas Jacobsen, Irina Tezaur, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond Tuminaro, and Luca Bertagna
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3747–3780, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3747-2018, 2018
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MPAS-Albany Land Ice (MALI) is a new variable-resolution land ice model that uses unstructured grids on a plane or sphere. MALI is built for Earth system modeling on high-performance computing platforms using existing software libraries. MALI simulates the evolution of ice thickness, velocity, and temperature, and it includes schemes for simulating iceberg calving and the flow of water beneath ice sheets and its effect on ice sliding. The model is demonstrated for the Antarctic ice sheet.
Ian Joughin, Ben E. Smith, and Ian Howat
The Cryosphere, 12, 2211–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2211-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2211-2018, 2018
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We describe several new ice velocity maps produced using Landsat 8 and Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B data. We focus on several sites where we analyse these data in conjunction with earlier data from this project, which extend back to the year 2000. In particular, we find that Jakobshavn Isbræ began slowing substantially in 2017. The growing duration of these records will allow more robust analyses of the processes controlling fast flow and how they are affected by climate and other forcings.
Tong Zhang, Stephen Price, Lili Ju, Wei Leng, Julien Brondex, Gaël Durand, and Olivier Gagliardini
The Cryosphere, 11, 179–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-179-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-179-2017, 2017
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Stokes-flow models are the highest-fidelity representation of the equations governing ice sheet flow and they are often treated as the standard against which other models are compared in model benchmark activities. We compare two different Stokes models applied to a canonical set of idealized marine ice sheet experiments and demonstrate that the solutions converge with increasing grid resolution. This provides confidence in the use of Stokes models for generating test case solution metrics.
Stephen F. Price, Matthew J. Hoffman, Jennifer A. Bonin, Ian M. Howat, Thomas Neumann, Jack Saba, Irina Tezaur, Jeffrey Guerber, Don P. Chambers, Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Jan Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Mauro Perego, Andrew G. Salinger, Raymond S. Tuminaro, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Sophie M. J. Nowicki
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017, 2017
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We introduce the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) and propose qualitative and quantitative metrics for evaluating ice sheet model simulations against observations. Greenland simulations using the Community Ice Sheet Model are compared to gravimetry and altimetry observations from 2003 to 2013. We show that the CmCt can be used to score simulations of increasing complexity relative to observations of dynamic change in Greenland over the past decade.
S. de la Peña, I. M. Howat, P. W. Nienow, M. R. van den Broeke, E. Mosley-Thompson, S. F. Price, D. Mair, B. Noël, and A. J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 9, 1203–1211, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1203-2015, 2015
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This paper presents an assessment of changes in the near-surface structure of the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by an increase of melt at higher elevations in the last decade, especially during the unusually warm years of 2010 and 2012. The increase in melt and firn densification complicate the interpretation of changes in the ice volume, and the observed increase in firn ice content may reduce the important meltwater buffering capacity of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
I. K. Tezaur, M. Perego, A. G. Salinger, R. S. Tuminaro, and S. F. Price
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1197–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1197-2015, 2015
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In this manuscript, we discuss the development and validation of a new momentum balance solver for modeling the flow of glaciers and ice sheets based on the 1st-order Stokes equations. We demonstrate the numerical convergence of our solver (with respect to computational mesh spacing), its flexibility (with respect to both the choice of mesh and finite element type), and its computational performance (robustness and scalability when applied to both idealized and realistic ice sheet simulations).
M. P. Lüthi, C. Ryser, L. C. Andrews, G. A. Catania, M. Funk, R. L. Hawley, M. J. Hoffman, and T. A. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 9, 245–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-245-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-245-2015, 2015
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We analyze the thermal structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet with a heat flow model. New borehole measurements indicate that more heat is stored within the ice than would be expected from heat diffusion alone. We conclude that temperate paleo-firn and cyro-hydrologic warming are essential processes that explain the measurements.
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
B. F. Morriss, R. L. Hawley, J. W. Chipman, L. C. Andrews, G. A. Catania, M. J. Hoffman, M. P. Lüthi, and T. A. Neumann
The Cryosphere, 7, 1869–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1869-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1869-2013, 2013
W. Leng, L. Ju, M. Gunzburger, and S. Price
The Cryosphere, 7, 19–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-19-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-19-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Ice sheets | Subject: Greenland
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Cloud- and ice-albedo feedbacks drive greater Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to warming in CMIP6 than in CMIP5
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Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of Greenland Ice Sheet model simulations
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Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet
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Subglacial lake activity beneath the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The control of short-term ice mélange weakening episodes on calving activity at major Greenland outlet glaciers
Weekly to monthly terminus variability of Greenland's marine-terminating outlet glaciers
Observed mechanism for sustained glacier retreat and acceleration in response to ocean warming around Greenland
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Drill-site selection for cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating of the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet
A new Level 4 multi-sensor ice surface temperature product for the Greenland Ice Sheet
High-resolution imaging of supraglacial hydrological features on the Greenland Ice Sheet with NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) instrument suite
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GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Unravelling the long-term, locally heterogenous response of Greenland glaciers observed in archival photography
Simulating the Holocene deglaciation across a marine-terminating portion of southwestern Greenland in response to marine and atmospheric forcings
Comparison of ice dynamics using full-Stokes and Blatter–Pattyn approximation: application to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model
Modelling the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties
Multi-decadal retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northwest and central-west Greenland
Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century
Proper orthogonal decomposition of ice velocity identifies drivers of flow variability at Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ)
Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level
Automated detection and analysis of surface calving waves with a terrestrial radar interferometer at the front of Eqip Sermia, Greenland
Generation and fate of basal meltwater during winter, western Greenland Ice Sheet
Modeling the Greenland englacial stratigraphy
Upstream flow effects revealed in the EastGRIP ice core using Monte Carlo inversion of a two-dimensional ice-flow model
Indication of high basal melting at the EastGRIP drill site on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering
Contrasting regional variability of buried meltwater extent over 2 years across the Greenland Ice Sheet
Sensitivity of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters
Surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet derived from enhanced resolution passive microwave brightness temperatures (1979–2019)
Impact of updated radiative transfer scheme in snow and ice in RACMO2.3p3 on the surface mass and energy budget of the Greenland ice sheet
Winter drainage of surface lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet from Sentinel-1 SAR imagery
Basal traction mainly dictated by hard-bed physics over grounded regions of Greenland
The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century
The cooling signature of basal crevasses in a hard-bedded region of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Last glacial ice sheet dynamics offshore NE Greenland – a case study from Store Koldewey Trough
Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet
GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet
The firn meltwater Retention Model Intercomparison Project (RetMIP): evaluation of nine firn models at four weather station sites on the Greenland ice sheet
Evaluation of a new snow albedo scheme for the Greenland ice sheet in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2)
Surface velocity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS): assessment of interior velocities derived from satellite data by GPS
Intercomparison of surface meltwater routing models for the Greenland ice sheet and influence on subglacial effective pressures
Guy J. G. Paxman, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Aisling M. Dolan, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1467–1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024, 2024
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This study uses airborne radar data and satellite imagery to map mountainous topography hidden beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the landscape records the former extent and configuration of ice masses that were restricted to areas of high topography. Computer models of ice flow indicate that valley glaciers eroded this landscape millions of years ago when local air temperatures were at least 4 °C higher than today and Greenland’s ice volume was < 10 % of that of the modern ice sheet.
Alison Delhasse, Johanna Beckmann, Christoph Kittel, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 633–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-633-2024, 2024
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Aiming to study the long-term influence of an extremely warm climate in the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to sea level rise, a new regional atmosphere–ice sheet model setup was established. The coupling, explicitly considering the melt–elevation feedback, is compared to an offline method to consider this feedback. We highlight mitigation of the feedback due to local changes in atmospheric circulation with changes in surface topography, making the offline correction invalid on the margins.
Idunn Aamnes Mostue, Stefan Hofer, Trude Storelvmo, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 18, 475–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-475-2024, 2024
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The latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6) warm more over Greenland and the Arctic and thus also project a larger mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5). Our work suggests for the first time that part of the greater mass loss in CMIP6 over the GrIS is driven by a difference in the surface mass balance sensitivity from a change in cloud representation in the CMIP6 models.
Tong Zhang, William Colgan, Agnes Wansing, Anja Løkkegaard, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, and Cunde Xiao
The Cryosphere, 18, 387–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024, 2024
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The geothermal heat flux determines how much heat enters from beneath the ice sheet, and thus impacts the temperature and the flow of the ice sheet. In this study we investigate how much geothermal heat flux impacts the initialization of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model with two different initialization methods. We find a non-trivial influence of the choice of heat flow boundary conditions on the ice sheet initializations for further designs of ice sheet modeling.
Lauren D. Rawlins, David M. Rippin, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Kang Yang
The Cryosphere, 17, 4729–4750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4729-2023, 2023
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We map and quantify surface rivers and lakes at Humboldt Glacier to examine seasonal evolution and provide new insights of network configuration and behaviour. A widespread supraglacial drainage network exists, expanding up the glacier as seasonal runoff increases. Large interannual variability affects the areal extent of this network, controlled by high- vs. low-melt years, with late summer network persistence likely preconditioning the surface for earlier drainage activity the following year.
Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, 2023
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We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
Anja Rutishauser, Kirk Michael Scanlan, Baptiste Vandecrux, Nanna B. Karlsson, Nicolas Jullien, Andreas Peter Ahlstrøm, Robert S. Fausto, and Penelope How
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2385, 2023
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The Greenland Ice sheet interior is covered by a layer of firn, which is important for surface meltwater runoff and contributions to global sea-level rise. Here, we combine airborne radar sounding and laser altimetry measurements to delineate vertically homogeneous and heterogeneous firn. Our results reveal changes in firn between 2011–2019, aligning well with known climatic events. This approach can be used to outline firn areas primed for significantly changing future meltwater runoff.
Johanna Beckmann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023
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Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events.
With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent.
Strong melt events may considerably contribute to Greenland's mass loss, which in turn strongly determines future sea level rise. How important these extreme melt events could be in the future is assessed in this study for the first time.
Angelika Humbert, Veit Helm, Niklas Neckel, Ole Zeising, Martin Rückamp, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Erik Loebel, Jörg Brauchle, Karsten Stebner, Dietmar Gross, Rabea Sondershaus, and Ralf Müller
The Cryosphere, 17, 2851–2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2851-2023, 2023
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The largest floating glacier mass in Greenland, the 79° N Glacier, is showing signs of instability. We investigate how crack formation at the glacier's calving front has changed over the last decades by using satellite imagery and airborne data. The calving front is about to lose contact to stabilizing ice islands. Simulations show that the glacier will accelerate as a result of this, leading to an increase in ice discharge of more than 5.1 % if its calving front retreats by 46 %.
Megan Thompson-Munson, Nander Wever, C. Max Stevens, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Brooke Medley
The Cryosphere, 17, 2185–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2185-2023, 2023
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To better understand the Greenland Ice Sheet’s firn layer and its ability to buffer sea level rise by storing meltwater, we analyze firn density observations and output from two firn models. We find that both models, one physics-based and one semi-empirical, simulate realistic density and firn air content when compared to observations. The models differ in their representation of firn air content, highlighting the uncertainty in physical processes and the paucity of deep-firn measurements.
Yubin Fan, Chang-Qing Ke, Xiaoyi Shen, Yao Xiao, Stephen J. Livingstone, and Andrew J. Sole
The Cryosphere, 17, 1775–1786, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1775-2023, 2023
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We used the new-generation ICESat-2 altimeter to detect and monitor active subglacial lakes in unprecedented spatiotemporal detail. We created a new inventory of 18 active subglacial lakes as well as their elevation and volume changes during 2019–2020, which provides an improved understanding of how the Greenland subglacial water system operates and how these lakes are fed by water from the ice surface.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 17, 309–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-309-2023, 2023
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We characterized short-lived episodes of ice mélange weakening (IMW) at the front of three major Greenland outlet glaciers. Through a continuous detection at the front of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier during the June-to-September period from 2018 to 2021, we found that 87 % of the IMW episodes occurred prior to a large-scale calving event. Using a simple model for ice mélange motion, we further characterized the IMW process as self-sustained through the existence of an IMW–calving feedback.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 17, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1-2023, 2023
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The frontal positions of most ice-sheet-based glaciers in Greenland vary seasonally. On average, these glaciers begin retreating in May and begin advancing in October, and the difference between their most advanced and most retreated positions is 220 m. The timing may be related to the timing of melt on the ice sheet, and the seasonal length variation may be related to glacier speed. These seasonal variations can affect glacier behavior and, consequently, how much ice is lost from the ice sheet.
Evan Carnahan, Ginny Catania, and Timothy C. Bartholomaus
The Cryosphere, 16, 4305–4317, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4305-2022, 2022
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The Greenland Ice Sheet primarily loses mass through increased ice discharge. We find changes in discharge from outlet glaciers are initiated by ocean warming, which causes a change in the balance of forces resisting gravity and leads to acceleration. Vulnerable conditions for sustained retreat and acceleration are predetermined by the glacier-fjord geometry and exist around Greenland, suggesting increases in ice discharge may be sustained into the future despite a pause in ocean warming.
Raf M. Antwerpen, Marco Tedesco, Xavier Fettweis, Patrick Alexander, and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 16, 4185–4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4185-2022, 2022
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The ice on Greenland has been melting more rapidly over the last few years. Most of this melt comes from the exposure of ice when the overlying snow melts. This ice is darker than snow and absorbs more sunlight, leading to more melt. It remains challenging to accurately simulate the brightness of the ice. We show that the color of ice simulated by Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is too bright. We then show that this means that MAR may underestimate how fast the Greenland ice is melting.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
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The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Ioanna Karagali, Magnus Barfod Suhr, Ruth Mottram, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Gorm Dybkjær, Darren Ghent, and Jacob L. Høyer
The Cryosphere, 16, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3703-2022, 2022
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Ice surface temperature (IST) products were used to develop the first multi-sensor, gap-free Level 4 (L4) IST product of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) for 2012, when a significant melt event occurred. For the melt season, mean IST was −15 to −1 °C, and almost the entire GIS experienced at least 1 to 5 melt days. Inclusion of the L4 IST to a surface mass budget (SMB) model improved simulated surface temperatures during the key onset of the melt season, where biases are typically large.
Michael Studinger, Serdar S. Manizade, Matthew A. Linkswiler, and James K. Yungel
The Cryosphere, 16, 3649–3668, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3649-2022, 2022
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The footprint density and high-resolution imagery of airborne surveys reveal details in supraglacial hydrological features that are currently not obtainable from spaceborne data. The accuracy and resolution of airborne measurements complement spaceborne measurements, can support calibration and validation of spaceborne methods, and provide information necessary for process studies of the hydrological system on ice sheets that currently cannot be achieved from spaceborne observations alone.
Tiago Silva, Jakob Abermann, Brice Noël, Sonika Shahi, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Wolfgang Schöner
The Cryosphere, 16, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3375-2022, 2022
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To overcome internal climate variability, this study uses k-means clustering to combine NAO, GBI and IWV over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and names the approach as the North Atlantic influence on Greenland (NAG). With the support of a polar-adapted RCM, spatio-temporal changes on SEB components within NAG phases are investigated. We report atmospheric warming and moistening across all NAG phases as well as large-scale and regional-scale contributions to GrIS mass loss and their interactions.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
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Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Michael A. Cooper, Paulina Lewińska, William A. P. Smith, Edwin R. Hancock, Julian A. Dowdeswell, and David M. Rippin
The Cryosphere, 16, 2449–2470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2449-2022, 2022
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Here we use old photographs gathered several decades ago to expand the temporal record of glacier change in part of East Greenland. This is important because the longer the record of past glacier change, the better we are at predicting future glacier behaviour. Our work also shows that despite all these glaciers retreating, the rate at which they do this varies markedly. It is therefore important to consider outlet glaciers from Greenland individually to take account of this differing behaviour.
Joshua K. Cuzzone, Nicolás E. Young, Mathieu Morlighem, Jason P. Briner, and Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
The Cryosphere, 16, 2355–2372, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2355-2022, 2022
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We use an ice sheet model to determine what influenced the Greenland Ice Sheet to retreat across a portion of southwestern Greenland during the Holocene (about the last 12 000 years). Our simulations, constrained by observations from geologic markers, show that atmospheric warming and ice melt primarily caused the ice sheet to retreat rapidly across this domain. We find, however, that iceberg calving at the interface where the ice meets the ocean significantly influenced ice mass change.
Martin Rückamp, Thomas Kleiner, and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 16, 1675–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1675-2022, 2022
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We present a comparative modelling study between the full-Stokes (FS) and Blatter–Pattyn (BP) approximation applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Both stress regimes are implemented in one single ice sheet code to eliminate numerical issues. The simulations unveil minor differences in the upper ice stream but become considerable at the grounding line of the 79° North Glacier. Model differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law.
Daniel Clarkson, Emma Eastoe, and Amber Leeson
The Cryosphere, 16, 1597–1607, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022, 2022
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The Greenland ice sheet has seen large amounts of melt in recent years, and accurately modelling temperatures is vital to understand how much of the ice sheet is melting. We estimate the probability of melt from ice surface temperature data to identify which areas of the ice sheet have experienced melt and estimate temperature quantiles. Our results suggest that for large areas of the ice sheet, melt has become more likely over the past 2 decades and high temperatures are also becoming warmer.
Benjamin Joseph Davison, Tom Cowton, Andrew Sole, Finlo Cottier, and Pete Nienow
The Cryosphere, 16, 1181–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022, 2022
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The ocean is an important driver of Greenland glacier retreat. Icebergs influence ocean temperature in the vicinity of glaciers, which will affect glacier retreat rates, but the effect of icebergs on water temperature is poorly understood. In this study, we use a model to show that icebergs cause large changes to water properties next to Greenland's glaciers, which could influence ocean-driven glacier retreat around Greenland.
Taryn E. Black and Ian Joughin
The Cryosphere, 16, 807–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-807-2022, 2022
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We used satellite images to create a comprehensive record of annual glacier change in northwest Greenland from 1972 through 2021. We found that nearly all glaciers in our study area have retreated and glacier retreat accelerated from around 1996. Comparing these results with climate data, we found that glacier retreat is most sensitive to water runoff and moderately sensitive to ocean temperatures. These can affect glacier fronts in several ways, so no process clearly dominates glacier retreat.
Katharina M. Holube, Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 16, 315–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-315-2022, 2022
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We simulated the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century by forcing a snow model with the output of many Earth system models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We quantify the contribution to uncertainty in surface mass balance of these two factors and the choice of parameters of the snow model. The results show that the differences between Earth system models are the main source of uncertainty. This effect is localised mostly near the equilibrium line.
David W. Ashmore, Douglas W. F. Mair, Jonathan E. Higham, Stephen Brough, James M. Lea, and Isabel J. Nias
The Cryosphere, 16, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-219-2022, 2022
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In this paper we explore the use of a transferrable and flexible statistical technique to try and untangle the multiple influences on marine-terminating glacier dynamics, as measured from space. We decompose a satellite-derived ice velocity record into ranked sets of static maps and temporal coefficients. We present evidence that the approach can identify velocity variability mainly driven by changes in terminus position and velocity variation mainly driven by subglacial hydrological processes.
Andy Aschwanden, Timothy C. Bartholomaus, Douglas J. Brinkerhoff, and Martin Truffer
The Cryosphere, 15, 5705–5715, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021, 2021
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Estimating how much ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica will contribute to sea level rise is of critical societal importance. However, our analysis shows that recent efforts are not trustworthy because the models fail at reproducing contemporary ice melt. Here we present a roadmap towards making more credible estimates of ice sheet melt.
Adrien Wehrlé, Martin P. Lüthi, Andrea Walter, Guillaume Jouvet, and Andreas Vieli
The Cryosphere, 15, 5659–5674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5659-2021, 2021
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We developed a novel automated method for the detection and the quantification of ocean waves generated by glacier calving. This method was applied to data recorded with a terrestrial radar interferometer at Eqip Sermia, Greenland. Results show a high calving activity at the glacier front sector ending in deep water linked with more frequent meltwater plumes. This suggests that rising subglacial meltwater plumes strongly affect glacier calving in deep water, but weakly in shallow water.
Joel Harper, Toby Meierbachtol, Neil Humphrey, Jun Saito, and Aidan Stansberry
The Cryosphere, 15, 5409–5421, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5409-2021, 2021
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We use surface and borehole measurements to investigate the generation and fate of basal meltwater in the ablation zone of western Greenland. The rate of basal meltwater generation at borehole study sites increases by up to 20 % over the winter period. Accommodation of all basal meltwater by expansion of isolated subglacial cavities is implausible. Other sinks for water do not likely balance basal meltwater generation, implying water evacuation through a connected drainage system in winter.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
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Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Tamara Annina Gerber, Christine Schøtt Hvidberg, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Steven Franke, Giulia Sinnl, Aslak Grinsted, Daniela Jansen, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
The Cryosphere, 15, 3655–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, 2021
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We simulate the ice flow in the onset region of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to determine the source area and past accumulation rates of ice found in the EastGRIP ice core. This information is required to correct for bias in ice-core records introduced by the upstream flow effects. Our results reveal that the increasing accumulation rate with increasing upstream distance is predominantly responsible for the constant annual layer thicknesses observed in the upper 900 m of the ice core.
Ole Zeising and Angelika Humbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 3119–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3119-2021, 2021
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Greenland’s largest ice stream – the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) – extends far into the interior of the ice sheet. Basal meltwater acts as a lubricant for glaciers and sustains sliding. Hence, observations of basal melt rates are of high interest. We performed two time series of precise ground-based radar measurements in the upstream region of NEGIS and found high melt rates of 0.19 ± 0.04 m per year.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
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Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Devon Dunmire, Alison F. Banwell, Nander Wever, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, and Rajashree Tri Datta
The Cryosphere, 15, 2983–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2983-2021, 2021
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Here, we automatically detect buried lakes (meltwater lakes buried below layers of snow) across the Greenland Ice Sheet, providing insight into a poorly studied meltwater feature. For 2018 and 2019, we compare areal extent of buried lakes. We find greater buried lake extent in 2019, especially in northern Greenland, which we attribute to late-summer surface melt and high autumn temperatures. We also provide evidence that buried lakes form via different processes across Greenland.
Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born
The Cryosphere, 15, 2917–2938, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021, 2021
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We investigate the sensitivity of a glacier surface mass and the energy balance model of the Greenland ice sheet for the cold period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present-day climate. The results show that the model sensitivity changes with climate. While for present-day simulations inclusions of sublimation and hoar formation are of minor importance, they cannot be neglected during the LGM. To simulate the surface mass balance over long timescales, a water vapor scheme is necessary.
Paolo Colosio, Marco Tedesco, Roberto Ranzi, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 15, 2623–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2623-2021, 2021
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We use a new satellite dataset to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over Greenland at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km. Using meteorological data and the MAR model, we observe that a dynamic algorithm can best detect surface melting. We found that the melting season is elongating, the melt extent is increasing and that high-resolution data better describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the melting season, which is crucial to improve estimates of sea level rise.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 1823–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1823-2021, 2021
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Absorption of solar radiation is often limited to the surface in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new radiative transfer scheme in the model RACMO2, which allows for internal heating and improves the surface reflectivity. Here, we evaluate its impact on the surface mass and energy budget and (sub)surface temperature, by using observations and the previous model version for the Greenland ice sheet. New results match better with observations and introduce subsurface melt.
Corinne L. Benedek and Ian C. Willis
The Cryosphere, 15, 1587–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1587-2021, 2021
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The surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet contains thousands of surface lakes. These lakes can deliver water through cracks to the ice sheet base and influence the speed of ice flow. Here we look at instances of lakes draining in the middle of winter using the Sentinel-1 radar satellites. Winter-draining lakes can help us understand the mechanisms for lake drainages throughout the year and can point to winter movement of water that will impact our understanding of ice sheet hydrology.
Nathan Maier, Florent Gimbert, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Adrien Gilbert
The Cryosphere, 15, 1435–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1435-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1435-2021, 2021
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In Greenland, ice motion and the surface geometry depend on the friction at the bed. We use satellite measurements and modeling to determine how ice speeds and friction are related across the ice sheet. The relationships indicate that ice flowing over bed bumps sets the friction across most of the ice sheet's on-land regions. This result helps simplify and improve our understanding of how ice motion will change in the future.
Aurélien Quiquet and Christophe Dumas
The Cryosphere, 15, 1015–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1015-2021, 2021
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We present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 for Greenland. The project aims to quantify the ice sheet contribution to global sea level rise for the next century. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. Mass loss is primarily driven by atmospheric warming, while oceanic forcing contributes to a relatively smaller uncertainty in our simulations.
Ian E. McDowell, Neil F. Humphrey, Joel T. Harper, and Toby W. Meierbachtol
The Cryosphere, 15, 897–907, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-897-2021, 2021
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Ice temperature controls rates of internal deformation and the onset of basal sliding. To identify heat transfer mechanisms and englacial heat sources within Greenland's ablation zone, we examine a 2–3-year continuous temperature record from nine full-depth boreholes. Thermal decay after basal crevasses release heat in the near-basal ice likely produces the observed cooling. Basal crevasses in Greenland can affect the basal ice rheology and indicate a potentially complex basal hydrologic system.
Ingrid Leirvik Olsen, Tom Arne Rydningen, Matthias Forwick, Jan Sverre Laberg, and Katrine Husum
The Cryosphere, 14, 4475–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4475-2020, 2020
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We present marine geoscientific data from Store Koldewey Trough, one of the largest glacial troughs offshore NE Greenland, to reconstruct the ice drainage pathways, ice sheet extent and ice stream dynamics of this sector during the last glacial and deglaciation. The complex landform assemblage in the trough reflects a dynamic retreat with several periods of stabilization and readvances, interrupting the deglaciation. Estimates indicate that the ice front locally retreated between 80–400 m/year.
Jonathan M. Gregory, Steven E. George, and Robin S. Smith
The Cryosphere, 14, 4299–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020, 2020
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Melting of the Greenland ice sheet as a consequence of global warming could raise global-mean sea level by up to 7 m. We have studied this using a newly developed computer model. With recent climate maintained, sea level would rise by 0.5–2.5 m over many millennia due to Greenland ice loss: the warmer the climate, the greater the sea level rise. Beyond about 3.5 m it would become partially irreversible. In order to avoid this outcome, anthropogenic climate change must be reversed soon enough.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter L. Langen, Robert S. Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Leeson, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia Miller, Clifford I. Voss, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 14, 3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020
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In the vast interior of the Greenland ice sheet, snow accumulates into a thick and porous layer called firn. Each summer, the firn retains part of the meltwater generated at the surface and buffers sea-level rise. In this study, we compare nine firn models traditionally used to quantify this retention at four sites and evaluate their performance against a set of in situ observations. We highlight limitations of certain model designs and give perspectives for future model development.
Christiaan T. van Dalum, Willem Jan van de Berg, Stef Lhermitte, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3645–3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3645-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The reflectivity of sunlight, which is also known as albedo, is often inadequately modeled in regional climate models. Therefore, we have implemented a new snow and ice albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2. In this study, we evaluate a new RACMO2 version for the Greenland ice sheet by using observations and the previous model version. RACMO2 output compares well with observations, and by including new processes we improve the ability of RACMO2 to make future climate projections.
Christine S. Hvidberg, Aslak Grinsted, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Anders Kusk, Jonas Kvist Andersen, Niklas Neckel, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Helle Astrid Kjær, and Paul Vallelonga
The Cryosphere, 14, 3487–3502, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, 2020
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km from its onset in the interior of Greenland to the coast. Several maps of surface velocity and topography in Greenland exist, but accuracy is limited due to the lack of validation data. Here we present results from a 5-year GPS survey in an interior section of NEGIS. We use the data to assess a list of satellite-derived ice velocity and surface elevation products and discuss the implications for the ice stream flow in the area.
Kang Yang, Aleah Sommers, Lauren C. Andrews, Laurence C. Smith, Xin Lu, Xavier Fettweis, and Manchun Li
The Cryosphere, 14, 3349–3365, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3349-2020, 2020
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This study compares hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models. Results show that these models are superior to simply using regional climate model runoff without routing, but different routing models, different-spatial-resolution DEMs, and parameterized seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks induce significant variability in diurnal moulin discharges and corresponding subglacial effective pressures.
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Short summary
We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea level in 2007–2100, using an ensemble of model simulations constrained by observations of glacier retreat and speedup. This is a significant fraction of the 40–140 mm from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet predicted by the recent ISMIP6 multi-model ensemble, suggesting that calibrating models against observed velocity changes could result in higher estimates of 21st century sea-level rise from Greenland.
We estimate that Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, will contribute 5.2–8.7 mm to global sea...
