The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3637-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 8
Research article
 | 
06 Aug 2021
Research article |  | 06 Aug 2021

The 21st-century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

Matthias Scheiter, Marius Schaefer, Eduardo Flández, Deniz Bozkurt, and Ralf Greve

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Adhikari, S. and Marshall, S. J.: Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains, The Cryosphere, 7, 1527–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1527-2013, 2013. a, b
Aster, R. C., Borchers, B., and Thurber, C. H.: Parameter estimation and inverse problems, Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 2018. a
Bernales, J., Rogozhina, I., Greve, R., and Thomas, M.: Comparison of hybrid schemes for the combination of shallow approximations in numerical simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 11, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-247-2017, 2017. a
Blatter, H. and Greve, R.: Comparison and verification of enthalpy schemes for polythermal glaciers and ice sheets with a one-dimensional model, Polar Sci., 9, 196–207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2015.04.001, 2015. a
Bozkurt, D., Rojas, M., Boisier, J. P., Rondanelli, R., Garreaud, R., and Gallardo, L.: Dynamical downscaling over the complex terrain of southwest South America: present climate conditions and added value analysis, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6745–6767, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y, 2019. a
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We simulate the current state and future evolution of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile (40°S, 72°W) with the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. Under different global warming scenarios, we project ice mass losses between 56 % and 97 % by the end of the 21st century. We quantify the uncertainties based on an ensemble of climate models and on the temperature dependence of the equilibrium line altitude. Our results suggest a considerable deglaciation in southern Chile in the next 80 years.
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