Articles | Volume 8, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1057-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jun 2014
Research article |
| 18 Jun 2014
Modelling the response of the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf system, East Antarctica, to uncertain climate forcing over the 21st and 22nd centuries
School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK
Arctic Center, Lapland University, 96101, Rovaniemi, Finland
S. L. Cornford
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
A. J. Payne
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The results from our snow evolution modeling of glacierized drainage basins in western Norway forced by bias-corrected, IPCC class regional climate model experiment CORDEX outputs reveal that the applicability of such forcing to directly drive local scale projections is not satisfactory. It is necessary to correct the original CORDEX datasets for bias against reference data that represent the current climate conditions of a specific area of interest for future projections.
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In this study we apply a discrete element model capable of simulating ice fracturing. A microscopic-scale discrete process is applied in addition to a continuum ice dynamics model to investigate the mechanisms facilitated by basal meltwater production, surface meltwater and ice crack opening, for the surge in Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap. The discrete element model is used to locate the ice cracks that can penetrate though the full thickness of the glacier and deliver surface water to the bed.
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Douglas I. Benn, Adrian Luckman, Jan A. Åström, Anna J. Crawford, Stephen L. Cornford, Suzanne L. Bevan, Thomas Zwinger, Rupert Gladstone, Karen Alley, Erin Pettit, and Jeremy Bassis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2545–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2545-2022, 2022
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Thwaites Glacier (TG), in West Antarctica, is potentially unstable and may contribute significantly to sea-level rise as global warming continues. Using satellite data, we show that Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, the largest remaining floating extension of TG, has started to accelerate as it fragments along a shear zone. Computer modelling does not indicate that fragmentation will lead to imminent glacier collapse, but it is clear that major, rapid, and unpredictable changes are underway.
Yongmei Gong and Irina Rogozhina
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-500, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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The results from our snow evolution modeling of glacierized drainage basins in western Norway forced by bias-corrected, IPCC class regional climate model experiment CORDEX outputs reveal that the applicability of such forcing to directly drive local scale projections is not satisfactory. It is necessary to correct the original CORDEX datasets for bias against reference data that represent the current climate conditions of a specific area of interest for future projections.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, William H. Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, Chris Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Aurelien Quiquet, Martin Rückamp, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Donald A. Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Lev Tarasov, Roderik van de Wal, and Michiel van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 14, 3071–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020, 2020
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In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
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Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
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The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
Sophie Nowicki, Heiko Goelzer, Hélène Seroussi, Anthony J. Payne, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Richard Cullather, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tore Hattermann, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Christopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Roderik van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020
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This paper describes the experimental protocol for ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparion Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) and presents an overview of the atmospheric and oceanic datasets to be used for the simulations. The ISMIP6 framework allows for exploring the uncertainty in 21st century sea level change from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Stephen L. Cornford, Helene Seroussi, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Rob Arthern, Chris Borstad, Julia Christmann, Thiago Dias dos Santos, Johannes Feldmann, Daniel Goldberg, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Nacho Merino, Gaël Durand, Mathieu Morlighem, David Pollard, Martin Rückamp, C. Rosie Williams, and Hongju Yu
The Cryosphere, 14, 2283–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2283-2020, 2020
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We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.
Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Isabel J. Nias, Antony J. Payne, Nicholas R. Golledge, and Rory J. Bingham
The Cryosphere, 14, 1245–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020, 2020
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, Stephen L. Cornford, and Twila Moon
The Cryosphere, 13, 1877–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1877-2019, 2019
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Iceberg calving is a major factor in the retreat of outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Massive block overturning calving events occur at major outlet glaciers. A major calving event in 2009 was triggered by the release of a smaller block of ice from above the waterline. Using a numerical model, we investigate the feasibility of this mechanism to drive large calving events. We find that relatively small perturbations induce forces large enough to open cracks in ice at the glacier bed.
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
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We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
Sarah Shannon, Robin Smith, Andy Wiltshire, Tony Payne, Matthias Huss, Richard Betts, John Caesar, Aris Koutroulis, Darren Jones, and Stephan Harrison
The Cryosphere, 13, 325–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-325-2019, 2019
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We present global glacier volume projections for the end of this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as exceeding 2 °C global average warming. The ice loss contribution to sea level rise for all glaciers excluding those on the peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet is 215.2 ± 21.3 mm. Such large ice losses will have consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in glacier-fed river systems.
Clemens Schannwell, Stephen Cornford, David Pollard, and Nicholas E. Barrand
The Cryosphere, 12, 2307–2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2307-2018, 2018
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Despite the speculation on the state and fate of Larsen C Ice Shelf, a key unknown factor remains: what would be the effects of ice-shelf collapse on upstream drainage basins and thus global sea levels? In our paper three state-of-the-art numerical ice-sheet models were used to simulate the volume evolution of the inland ice sheet to ice-shelf collapse at Larsen C and George VI ice shelves. Our results suggest sea-level rise of up to ~ 4 mm for Larsen C ice shelf and ~ 22 for George VI ice shelf.
Yongmei Gong, Thomas Zwinger, Jan Åström, Bas Altena, Thomas Schellenberger, Rupert Gladstone, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 1563–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, 2018
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In this study we apply a discrete element model capable of simulating ice fracturing. A microscopic-scale discrete process is applied in addition to a continuum ice dynamics model to investigate the mechanisms facilitated by basal meltwater production, surface meltwater and ice crack opening, for the surge in Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap. The discrete element model is used to locate the ice cracks that can penetrate though the full thickness of the glacier and deliver surface water to the bed.
Heiko Goelzer, Sophie Nowicki, Tamsin Edwards, Matthew Beckley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Reinhard Calov, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan Gregory, Ralf Greve, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Joseph H. Kennedy, Eric Larour, William H. Lipscomb, Sébastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Christian Rodehacke, Martin Rückamp, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Roderik van de Wal, and Florian A. Ziemen
The Cryosphere, 12, 1433–1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018, 2018
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We have compared a wide spectrum of different initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community to define the modelled present-day Greenland ice sheet state as a starting point for physically based future-sea-level-change projections. Compared to earlier community-wide comparisons, we find better agreement across different models, which implies overall improvement of our understanding of what is needed to produce such initial states.
Sainan Sun, Stephen L. Cornford, John C. Moore, Rupert Gladstone, and Liyun Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 2543–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, 2017
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The buttressing effect of the floating ice shelves is diminished by the fracture process. We developed a continuum damage mechanics model component of the ice sheet model to simulate the process. The model is tested on an ideal marine ice sheet geometry. We find that behavior of the simulated marine ice sheet is sensitive to fracture processes on the ice shelf, and the stiffness of ice around the grounding line is essential to ice sheet evolution.
Christopher N. Williams, Stephen L. Cornford, Thomas M. Jordan, Julian A. Dowdeswell, Martin J. Siegert, Christopher D. Clark, Darrel A. Swift, Andrew Sole, Ian Fenty, and Jonathan L. Bamber
The Cryosphere, 11, 363–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-363-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-363-2017, 2017
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Knowledge of ice sheet bed topography and surrounding sea floor bathymetry is integral to the understanding of ice sheet processes. Existing elevation data products for Greenland underestimate fjord bathymetry due to sparse data availability. We present a new method to create physically based synthetic fjord bathymetry to fill these gaps, greatly improving on previously available datasets. This will assist in future elevation product development until further observations become available.
Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Anthony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, Heiko Goelzer, William Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Andrew Shepherd
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4521–4545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016, 2016
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This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea level that arises due to past, present, and future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with investigating ice sheet–climate feedbacks. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) protocol includes targeted experiments, and a set of output diagnostic related to ice sheets, that are part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Emma J. Stone, Emilie Capron, Daniel J. Lunt, Antony J. Payne, Joy S. Singarayer, Paul J. Valdes, and Eric W. Wolff
Clim. Past, 12, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1919-2016, 2016
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Climate models forced only with greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters representative of the early Last Interglacial are unable to reproduce the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and the warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere. Using a climate model forced also with a freshwater amount derived from data representing melting from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets accounts for this response via the bipolar seesaw mechanism.
William H. G. Roberts, Antony J. Payne, and Paul J. Valdes
Clim. Past, 12, 1601–1617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1601-2016, 2016
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There are observations from ocean sediment cores that during the last ice age the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which sat over North America, periodically surged. In this study we show the role that water at the base of an ice sheet plays in these surges. We show that with a more realistic representation of water drainage at the base of the ice sheet than usually used, these surges can still occur and that they are triggered by an internal ice sheet instability; no external trigger is needed.
Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2471-2016, 2016
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Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
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We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
A. P. Wright, A. M. Le Brocq, S. L. Cornford, R. G. Bingham, H. F. J. Corr, F. Ferraccioli, T. A. Jordan, A. J. Payne, D. M. Rippin, N. Ross, and M. J. Siegert
The Cryosphere, 8, 2119–2134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2119-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
R. Gladstone, M. Schäfer, T. Zwinger, Y. Gong, T. Strozzi, R. Mottram, F. Boberg, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 1393–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, 2014
T. Howard, J. Ridley, A. K. Pardaens, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, A. J. Payne, R. H. Giesen, J. A. Lowe, J. L. Bamber, T. L. Edwards, and J. Oerlemans
Ocean Sci., 10, 485–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-485-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014, 2014
T. L. Edwards, X. Fettweis, O. Gagliardini, F. Gillet-Chaulet, H. Goelzer, J. M. Gregory, M. Hoffman, P. Huybrechts, A. J. Payne, M. Perego, S. Price, A. Quiquet, and C. Ritz
The Cryosphere, 8, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Numerical Modelling
Disentangling the oceanic drivers behind the post-2000 retreat of Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland (Jakobshavn Isbræ)
Glacier damage evolution over ice flow timescales
Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins
Quantifying radiative effects of light-absorbing particle deposition on snow at the SnowMIP sites
A minimal machine-learning glacier mass balance model
Improving large-scale snow albedo modeling using a climatology of light-absorbing particle deposition
Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes
Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
A hybrid ice-mélange model based on particle and continuum methods
New glacier thickness and bed topography maps for Svalbard
Sea-level rise contribution from Ryder Glacier in Northern Greenland varies by an order of magnitude by 2300 depending on future emissions
Quantifying the buttressing contribution of landfast sea ice and melange to Crane Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula
Multi-physics ensemble modelling of Arctic tundra snowpack properties
Two-way coupling between ice flow and channelized subglacial drainage enhances modeled marine-ice-sheet retreat
Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations
Modelling snowpack on ice surfaces with the ORCHIDEE land surface model: application to the Greenland ice sheet
Application of a regularised Coulomb sliding law to Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland
Brief communication: Stalagmite damage by cave ice flow quantitatively assessed by fluid–structure interaction simulations
Calving from horizontal forces in a revised crevasse-depth framework
Exploring the decision-making process in model development: focus on the Arctic snowpack
Exploring the potential of forest snow modeling at the tree and snowpack layer scale
Simulating lake ice phenology using a coupled atmosphere–lake model at Nam Co, a typical deep alpine lake on the Tibetan Plateau
Modelling the effect of free convection on permafrost melting rates in frozen rock clefts
How many parameters are needed to represent polar sea ice surface patterns and heterogeneity?
Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations
Analytical solutions for the advective–diffusive ice column in the presence of strain heating
Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes
Microstructure-based modelling of snow mechanics: experimental evaluation of the cone penetration test
The demise of the world's largest piedmont glacier: a probabilistic forecast
Snow redistribution in an intermediate-complexity snow hydrology modelling framework
Increasing numerical stability of mountain valley glacier simulations: implementation and testing of free-surface stabilization in Elmer/Ice
Improved basal drag of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from L-curve analysis of inverse models utilizing subglacial hydrology simulations
Analyzing the sensitivity of a blowing snow model (SnowPappus) to precipitation forcing, blowing snow, and spatial resolution
Calibrated sea level contribution from the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, under RCP8.5 and Paris 2C scenarios
Exploring non-Gaussian sea ice characteristics via observing system simulation experiments
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift
A 3D glacier dynamics–line plume model to estimate the frontal ablation of Hansbreen, Svalbard
Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic
Using Icepack to reproduce ice mass balance buoy observations in landfast ice: improvements from the mushy-layer thermodynamics
Modeling the timing of Patagonian Ice Sheet retreat in the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka
Understanding the influence of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation: a modeling study with an atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model
Sea ice cover in the Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis
Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming
Smoothed particle hydrodynamics implementation of the standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model and validation in simple idealized experiments
Coupled thermo–geophysical inversion for permafrost monitoring
Using specularity content to evaluate eight geothermal heat flow maps of Totten Glacier
Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf
Regularization and L-curves in ice sheet inverse models: a case study in the Filchner–Ronne catchment
Ziad Rashed, Alexander A. Robel, and Hélène Seroussi
The Cryosphere, 19, 1775–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025, 2025
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Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland's largest glacier, has significantly retreated since the late 1990s in response to warming ocean temperatures. Using a large-ensemble approach, our simulations show that the retreat is mainly initiated by the arrival of warm water but sustained and accelerated by the glacier's position over deeper bed troughs and vigorous calving. We highlight the need for models of ice mélange to project glacier behavior under rapid calving regimes.
Meghana Ranganathan, Alexander A. Robel, Alexander Huth, and Ravindra Duddu
The Cryosphere, 19, 1599–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1599-2025, 2025
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The rate of ice loss from ice sheets is controlled by the flow of ice from the center of the ice sheet and by the internal fracturing of the ice. These processes are coupled; fractures reduce the viscosity of ice and enable more rapid flow, and rapid flow causes the fracturing of ice. We present a simplified way of representing damage that is applicable to long-timescale flow estimates. Using this model, we find that including fracturing in an ice sheet simulation can increase the loss of ice by 13–29 %.
Finn Wimberly, Lizz Ultee, Lilian Schuster, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren
The Cryosphere, 19, 1491–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025, 2025
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Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km2 with over 30 km2 of initial glacier cover.
Enrico Zorzetto, Paul Ginoux, Sergey Malyshev, and Elena Shevliakova
The Cryosphere, 19, 1313–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1313-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1313-2025, 2025
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Light-absorbing particle (LAP) deposition on snow leads to a darkening of the snow surface and can thus accelerate snow melt. Understanding the extent to which different types of LAPs contribute to snow melt is important to both predict changes in water availability and improve global climate model predictions. Here, we extend a recently developed snow model to account for the deposition of LAPs in the snowpack and evaluate the effect of snow darkening on accelerating snow melt.
Marijn van der Meer, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Jordi Bolibar, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, and Daniel Farinotti
The Cryosphere, 19, 805–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-805-2025, 2025
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Glacier retreat poses big challenges, making understanding how climate affects glaciers vital. But glacier measurements worldwide are limited. We created a simple machine-learning model called miniML-MB, which estimates annual changes in glacier mass in the Swiss Alps. As input, miniML-MB uses two climate variables: average temperature (May–Aug) and total precipitation (Oct–Feb). Our model can accurately predict glacier mass from 1961 to 2021 but struggles for extreme years (2022 and 2023).
Manon Gaillard, Vincent Vionnet, Matthieu Lafaysse, Marie Dumont, and Paul Ginoux
The Cryosphere, 19, 769–792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-769-2025, 2025
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This study presents an efficient method to improve large-scale snow albedo simulations by considering the spatial variability in light-absorbing particles (LAPs) like black carbon and dust. A global climatology of LAP deposition was created and used to optimize a parameter in the Crocus snow model. Testing at 10 global sites improved albedo predictions by 10 % on average and over 25 % in the Arctic. This method can enhance other snow models' predictions without complex simulations.
Jonathan D. Mackay, Nicholas E. Barrand, David M. Hannah, Emily Potter, Nilton Montoya, and Wouter Buytaert
The Cryosphere, 19, 685–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025, 2025
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We combine two globally capable glacier evolution models to include processes that are typically neglected but thought to control tropical glacier retreat (e.g. sublimation). We apply the model to Peru's Vilcanota-Urubamba Basin. The model captures observed glacier mass changes,but struggles with surface albedo dynamics. Projections show glacier mass shrinking to 17 % or 6 % of 2000 levels by 2100 under moderate- and high-emission scenarios, respectively.
Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025, 2025
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In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
Saskia Kahl, Carolin Mehlmann, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 19, 129–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, 2025
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Ice mélange, a mixture of sea ice and icebergs, can impact sea-ice–ocean interactions. But climate models do not yet represent it due to computational limits. To address this shortcoming and include ice mélange into climate models, we suggest representing icebergs as particles. We integrate their feedback into mathematical equations used to model the sea-ice motion in climate models. The setup is computationally efficient due to the iceberg particle usage and enables a realistic representation.
Ward van Pelt and Thomas Frank
The Cryosphere, 19, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1-2025, 2025
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Accurate information on the ice thickness of Svalbard's glaciers is important for assessing the contribution to sea level rise in a present and a future climate. However, direct observations of the glacier bed are scarce. Here, we use an inverse approach and high-resolution surface observations to infer basal conditions. We present and analyse the new bed and thickness maps, quantify the ice volume (6800 km3), and compare these against radar data and previous studies.
Felicity Alice Holmes, Jamie Barnett, Henning Åkesson, Mathieu Morlighem, Johan Nilsson, Nina Kirchner, and Martin Jakobsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3839, 2024
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Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades in contrast to nearby glaciers. Here, we use a computer model to simulate Ryder Glacier until 2300 under both a low and high emissions scenario. Very high levels of surface melt under a high emissions future leads to a sea-level rise contribution an order of magnitude higher than under a low emissions future.
Richard Parsons, Sainan Sun, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Jan Wuite, and Thomas Nagler
The Cryosphere, 18, 5789–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5789-2024, 2024
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In 2022, multi-year landfast sea ice in Antarctica's Larsen B embayment disintegrated, after which time an increase in the rate at which Crane Glacier discharged ice into the ocean was observed. As the fast ice was joined to the glacier terminus, it could provide resistance against the glacier's flow, slowing down the rate of ice discharge. We used numerical modelling to quantify this resistive stress and found that the fast ice provided significant support to Crane prior to its disintegration.
Georgina J. Woolley, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Vincent Vionnet, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Philip Marsh, Rosamond Tutton, Branden Walker, Matthieu Lafaysse, and David Pritchard
The Cryosphere, 18, 5685–5711, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5685-2024, 2024
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Parameterisations of Arctic snow processes were implemented into the multi-physics ensemble version of the snow model Crocus (embedded within the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow version 2 land surface model) and evaluated at an Arctic tundra site. Optimal combinations of parameterisations that improved the simulation of density and specific surface area featured modifications that raise wind speeds to increase compaction in surface layers, prevent snowdrift, and increase viscosity in basal layers.
George Lu and Jonathan Kingslake
The Cryosphere, 18, 5301–5321, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5301-2024, 2024
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Water below ice sheets affects ice-sheet motion, while the evolution of ice sheets likewise affects the water below. We create a model that allows for water and ice to affect each other and use it to see how this coupling or lack thereof may impact ice-sheet retreat. We find that coupling an evolving water system with the ice sheet results in more retreat than if we assume unchanging conditions under the ice, which indicates a need to better represent the effects of water in ice-sheet models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
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Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
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The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Matt Trevers, Antony J. Payne, and Stephen L. Cornford
The Cryosphere, 18, 5101–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5101-2024, 2024
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The form of the friction law which determines the speed of ice sliding over the bedrock remains a major source of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of future sea level rise. Jakobshavn Isbræ, the fastest-flowing glacier in Greenland, which has undergone significant changes in the last few decades, is an ideal case for testing sliding laws. We find that a regularised Coulomb friction law reproduces the large seasonal and inter-annual flow speed variations most accurately.
Alexander H. Jarosch, Paul Hofer, and Christoph Spötl
The Cryosphere, 18, 4811–4816, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4811-2024, 2024
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Mechanical damage to stalagmites is commonly observed in mid-latitude caves. In this study we investigate ice flow along the cave bed as a possible mechanism for stalagmite damage. Utilizing models which simulate forces created by ice flow, we study the structural integrity of different stalagmite geometries. Our results suggest that structural failure of stalagmites caused by ice flow is possible, albeit unlikely.
Donald A. Slater and Till J. W. Wagner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2927, 2024
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Calving is when icebergs break off glaciers and fall into the ocean. It is an important process determining how ice sheets will respond to change in climate, but it is currently poorly understood and hard to include in numerical models that are used for sea level projections. We revised an existing theory for how this process works, overcoming shortcomings of the existing theory and explaining observations showing that calving style depends on how thick the ice is.
Cecile B. Menard, Sirpa Rasmus, Ioanna Merkouriadi, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Annett Bartsch, Chris Derksen, Florent Domine, Marie Dumont, Dorothee Ehrich, Richard Essery, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerhard Krinner, David Lawrence, Glen Liston, Heidrun Matthes, Nick Rutter, Melody Sandells, Martin Schneebeli, and Sari Stark
The Cryosphere, 18, 4671–4686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4671-2024, 2024
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Computer models, like those used in climate change studies, are written by modellers who have to decide how best to construct the models in order to satisfy the purpose they serve. Using snow modelling as an example, we examine the process behind the decisions to understand what motivates or limits modellers in their decision-making. We find that the context in which research is undertaken is often more crucial than scientific limitations. We argue for more transparency in our research practice.
Giulia Mazzotti, Jari-Pekka Nousu, Vincent Vionnet, Tobias Jonas, Rafife Nheili, and Matthieu Lafaysse
The Cryosphere, 18, 4607–4632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4607-2024, 2024
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As many boreal and alpine forests have seasonal snow, models are needed to predict forest snow under future environmental conditions. We have created a new forest snow model by combining existing, very detailed model components for the canopy and the snowpack. We applied it to forests in Switzerland and Finland and showed how complex forest cover leads to a snowpack layering that is very variable in space and time because different processes prevail at different locations in the forest.
Xu Zhou, Binbin Wang, Xiaogang Ma, Zhu La, and Kun Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4589–4605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4589-2024, 2024
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The simulation of the ice phenology of Nam Co by WRF is investigated. Compared with the default model, improving the key lake schemes, such as water surface roughness length for heat fluxes and the shortwave radiation transfer for lake ice, can better simulate the lake ice phenology. The still existing errors in the spatial patterns of lake ice phenology imply that challenges still exist in modelling key lake and non-lake physics such as grid-scale water circulation and snow-related processes.
Amir Sedaghatkish, Frédéric Doumenc, Pierre-Yves Jeannin, and Marc Luetscher
The Cryosphere, 18, 4531–4546, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4531-2024, 2024
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We developed a model to simulate the natural convection of water within frozen rock crevices subject to daily warming in mountain permafrost regions. Traditional models relying on conduction and latent heat flux typically overlook free convection. The results reveal that free convection can significantly accelerate the melting rate by an order of magnitude compared to conduction-based models. Our results are important for assessing the impact of climate change on mountain infrastructure.
Joseph Fogarty, Elie Bou-Zeid, Mitchell Bushuk, and Linette Boisvert
The Cryosphere, 18, 4335–4354, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4335-2024, 2024
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We hypothesize that using a broad set of surface characterization metrics for polar sea ice surfaces will lead to more accurate representations in general circulation models. However, the first step is to identify the minimum set of metrics required. We show via numerical simulations that sea ice surface patterns can play a crucial role in determining boundary layer structures. We then statistically analyze a set of high-resolution sea ice surface images to obtain this minimal set of parameters.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
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We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
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Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Tim Hageman, Jessica Mejía, Ravindra Duddu, and Emilio Martínez-Pañeda
The Cryosphere, 18, 3991–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024, 2024
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Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.
Clémence Herny, Pascal Hagenmuller, Guillaume Chambon, Isabel Peinke, and Jacques Roulle
The Cryosphere, 18, 3787–3805, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3787-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the evaluation of a numerical discrete element method (DEM) by simulating cone penetration tests in different snow samples. The DEM model demonstrated a good ability to reproduce the measured mechanical behaviour of the snow, namely the force evolution on the cone and the grain displacement field. Systematic sensitivity tests showed that the mechanical response depends not only on the microstructure of the sample but also on the mechanical parameters of grain contacts.
Douglas Brinkerhoff, Brandon Tober, Michael Daniel, Victor Devaux-Chupin, Michael Christoffersen, John W. Holt, Christopher F. Larsen, Mark Fahnestock, Michael G. Loso, Kristin M. F. Timm, Russell Mitchell, and Martin Truffer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2354, 2024
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Sít' Tlein is one of the largest glaciers in the world outside of the polar regions, and we know that it has been rapidly thinning. To forecast how this glacier will change in the future, we combine a computer model of ice flow with measurements from many different sources. Our model tells us that with high probability, Sít' Tlein's lower reaches are going to disappear in the next century and a half, creating a new bay or lake along Alaska's coastline.
Louis Quéno, Rebecca Mott, Paul Morin, Bertrand Cluzet, Giulia Mazzotti, and Tobias Jonas
The Cryosphere, 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3533-2024, 2024
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Snow redistribution by wind and avalanches strongly influences snow hydrology in mountains. This study presents a novel modelling approach to best represent these processes in an operational context. The evaluation of the simulations against airborne snow depth measurements showed remarkable improvement in the snow distribution in mountains of the eastern Swiss Alps, with a representation of snow accumulation and erosion areas, suggesting promising benefits for operational snow melt forecasts.
André Löfgren, Thomas Zwinger, Peter Råback, Christian Helanow, and Josefin Ahlkrona
The Cryosphere, 18, 3453–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3453-2024, 2024
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This paper investigates a stabilization method for free-surface flows in the context of glacier simulations. Previous applications of the stabilization on ice flows have only considered simple ice-sheet benchmark problems; in particular the method had not been tested on real-world glacier domains. This work addresses this shortcoming by demonstrating that the stabilization works well also in this case and increases stability and robustness without negatively impacting computation times.
Lea-Sophie Höyns, Thomas Kleiner, Andreas Rademacher, Martin Rückamp, Michael Wolovick, and Angelika Humbert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1251, 2024
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Glaciers' sliding over bedrock is governed by water pressure in the hydrological system underneath the glacier and the roughness of the land underneath the glacier. We estimate this roughness using a modelling approach, which optimises this unknown parameter. The water pressure is simulated, too, which improves the robustness of the computed drag at the ice sheet base. We provide this data to other modellers and scientists doing geophysical field observations.
Ange Haddjeri, Matthieu Baron, Matthieu Lafaysse, Louis Le Toumelin, César Deschamps-Berger, Vincent Vionnet, Simon Gascoin, Matthieu Vernay, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 18, 3081–3116, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3081-2024, 2024
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Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations with snow transport against snow depths from Pléiades stereo imagery and snow melt-out dates from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 satellites. Additionally, we disentangle error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation heterogeneity, and unresolved subgrid variability. Snow transport enhances the snow simulations at high elevations, while precipitation biases are the main error source in other areas.
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Adrian Jenkins, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1838, 2024
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Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica have been retreating and losing mass, but their future contribution to global sea level rise remains highly uncertain. We use an ice sheet model and uncertainty quantification methods to evaluate the probable range of mass loss from this region for two future climate scenarios and find that the rate of ice loss until 2100 will likely remain similar to present-day observations, with little sensitivity to climate scenario over this short timeframe.
Christopher Riedel and Jeffrey Anderson
The Cryosphere, 18, 2875–2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2875-2024, 2024
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Accurate sea ice conditions are crucial for quality sea ice projections, which have been connected to rapid warming over the Arctic. Knowing which observations to assimilate into models will help produce more accurate sea ice conditions. We found that not assimilating sea ice concentration led to more accurate sea ice states. The methods typically used to assimilate observations in our models apply assumptions to variables that are not well suited for sea ice because they are bounded variables.
Julia Selivanova, Doroteaciro Iovino, and Francesco Cocetta
The Cryosphere, 18, 2739–2763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024, 2024
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Climate models show differences in sea ice representation in comparison to observations. Increasing the model resolution is a recognized way to improve model realism and obtain more reliable future projections. We find no strong impact of resolution on sea ice representation; it rather depends on the analysed variable and the model used. By 2050, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) becomes a dominant feature of the Arctic ice cover, suggesting a shift to a new regime similar to that in Antarctica.
Alexander A. Robel, Vincent Verjans, and Aminat A. Ambelorun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2613–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024, 2024
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The average size of many glaciers and ice sheets changes when noise is added to the system. The reasons for this drift in glacier state is intrinsic to the dynamics of how ice flows and the bumpiness of the Earth's surface. We argue that not including noise in projections of ice sheet evolution over coming decades and centuries is a pervasive source of bias in these computer models, and so realistic variability in glacier and climate processes must be included in models.
José M. Muñoz-Hermosilla, Jaime Otero, Eva De Andrés, Kaian Shahateet, Francisco Navarro, and Iván Pérez-Doña
The Cryosphere, 18, 1911–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1911-2024, 2024
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A large fraction of the mass loss from marine-terminating glaciers is attributed to frontal ablation. In this study, we used a 3D ice flow model of a real glacier that includes the effects of calving and submarine melting. Over a 30-month simulation, we found that the model reproduced the seasonal cycle for this glacier. Besides, the front positions were in good agreement with observations in the central part of the front, with longitudinal differences, on average, below 15 m.
Charlotte Durand, Tobias Sebastian Finn, Alban Farchi, Marc Bocquet, Guillaume Boutin, and Einar Ólason
The Cryosphere, 18, 1791–1815, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1791-2024, 2024
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This paper focuses on predicting Arctic-wide sea-ice thickness using surrogate modeling with deep learning. The model has a predictive power of 12 h up to 6 months. For this forecast horizon, persistence and daily climatology are systematically outperformed, a result of learned thermodynamics and advection. Consequently, surrogate modeling with deep learning proves to be effective at capturing the complex behavior of sea ice.
Mathieu Plante, Jean-François Lemieux, L. Bruno Tremblay, Adrienne Tivy, Joey Angnatok, François Roy, Gregory Smith, Frédéric Dupont, and Adrian K. Turner
The Cryosphere, 18, 1685–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1685-2024, 2024
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We use a sea ice model to reproduce ice growth observations from two buoys deployed on coastal sea ice and analyze the improvements brought by new physics that represent the presence of saline liquid water in the ice interior. We find that the new physics with default parameters degrade the model performance, with overly rapid ice growth and overly early snow flooding on top of the ice. The performance is largely improved by simple modifications to the ice growth and snow-flooding algorithms.
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, 2024
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We simulate the retreat history of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) across the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka. These results improve our understanding of the response of the PIS to deglacial warming and the patterns of deglacial ice margin retreat where gaps in the geologic record still exist, and they indicate that changes in large-scale precipitation during the last deglaciation played an important role in modulating the response of ice margin change across the PIS to deglacial warming.
Chao-Yuan Yang, Jiping Liu, and Dake Chen
The Cryosphere, 18, 1215–1239, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1215-2024, 2024
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We present a new atmosphere–ocean–wave–sea ice coupled model to study the influences of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation. Our results show (1) smaller ice-floe size with wave breaking increases ice melt, (2) the responses in the atmosphere and ocean to smaller floe size partially reduce the effect of the enhanced ice melt, (3) the limited oceanic energy is a strong constraint for ice melt enhancement, and (4) ocean waves can indirectly affect sea ice through the atmosphere and the ocean.
Yurii Batrak, Bin Cheng, and Viivi Kallio-Myers
The Cryosphere, 18, 1157–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1157-2024, 2024
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Atmospheric reanalyses provide consistent series of atmospheric and surface parameters in a convenient gridded form. In this paper, we study the quality of sea ice in a recently released regional reanalysis and assess its added value compared to a global reanalysis. We show that the regional reanalysis, having a more complex sea ice model, gives an improved representation of sea ice, although there are limitations indicating potential benefits in using more advanced approaches in the future.
Michael A. Rawlins and Ambarish V. Karmalkar
The Cryosphere, 18, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1033-2024, 2024
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Flows of water, carbon, and materials by Arctic rivers are being altered by climate warming. We used simulations from a permafrost hydrology model to investigate future changes in quantities influencing river exports. By 2100 Arctic rivers will receive more runoff from the far north where abundant soil carbon can leach in. More water will enter them via subsurface pathways particularly in summer and autumn. An enhanced water cycle and permafrost thaw are changing river flows to coastal areas.
Oreste Marquis, Bruno Tremblay, Jean-François Lemieux, and Mohammed Islam
The Cryosphere, 18, 1013–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1013-2024, 2024
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We developed a standard viscous–plastic sea-ice model based on the numerical framework called smoothed particle hydrodynamics. The model conforms to the theory within an error of 1 % in an idealized ridging experiment, and it is able to simulate stable ice arches. However, the method creates a dispersive plastic wave speed. The framework is efficient to simulate fractures and can take full advantage of parallelization, making it a good candidate to investigate sea-ice material properties.
Soňa Tomaškovičová and Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen
The Cryosphere, 18, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-321-2024, 2024
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We present the results of a fully coupled modeling framework for simulating the ground thermal regime using only surface measurements to calibrate the thermal model. The heat conduction model is forced by surface ground temperature measurements and calibrated using the field measurements of time lapse apparent electrical resistivity. The resistivity-calibrated thermal model achieves a performance comparable to the traditional calibration of borehole temperature measurements.
Yan Huang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Yiliang Ma, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 18, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, 2024
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Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important factor affecting the basal thermal environment of an ice sheet and crucial for its dynamics. But it is poorly defined for the Antarctic ice sheet. We simulate the basal temperature and basal melting rate with eight different GHF datasets. We use specularity content as a two-sided constraint to discriminate between local wet or dry basal conditions. Two medium-magnitude GHF distribution maps rank well, showing that most of the inland bed area is frozen.
Matthew Drew and Lev Tarasov
The Cryosphere, 17, 5391–5415, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5391-2023, 2023
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The interaction of fast-flowing regions of continental ice sheets with their beds governs how quickly they slide and therefore flow. The coupling of fast ice to its bed is controlled by the pressure of meltwater at its base. It is currently poorly understood how the physical details of these hydrologic systems affect ice speedup. Using numerical models we find, surprisingly, that they largely do not, except for the duration of the surge. This suggests that cheap models are sufficient.
Abhay Prakash, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, and Nina Kirchner
The Cryosphere, 17, 5255–5281, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023, 2023
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Sea ice arch formation in the Nares Strait has shielded the Petermann Glacier ice shelf from enhanced basal melting. However, with the sustained decline of the Arctic sea ice predicted to continue, the ice shelf is likely to be exposed to a year-round mobile and thin sea ice cover. In such a scenario, our modelled results show that elevated temperatures, and more importantly, a stronger ocean circulation in the ice shelf cavity, could result in up to two-thirds increase in basal melt.
Michael Wolovick, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, and Martin Rückamp
The Cryosphere, 17, 5027–5060, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5027-2023, 2023
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The friction underneath ice sheets can be inferred from observed velocity at the top, but this inference requires smoothing. The selection of smoothing has been highly variable in the literature. Here we show how to rigorously select the best smoothing, and we show that the inferred friction converges towards the best knowable field as model resolution improves. We use this to learn about the best description of basal friction and to formulate recommended best practices for other modelers.
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